Supply Chain Factors Contributing to Improved Material Flow Indicators but Increased Carbon Footprint

Improvements in four material flow indicators (MFIs) have helped facilitate Japan's transition to a sound material-cycle society. However, the economic and technological factors that have affected these MFIs have not been identified previously. Moreover, it is unclear whether the improvements in the MFIs have contributed to Japan's progress toward carbon mitigation. In this study, we quantified the contribution of the factors in the capital-embodied supply chain to changes in the MFIs at the national and sector levels. We also examined the consistency of MFI improvements with carbon footprint reduction. Our results show that, in many sectors, structural changes in the supply chain improved two of the MFIs (resource productivity and material circularity) but increased the carbon footprint of the sector. To address this conflict, producers need to manage their supply chains based on an understanding of the nexus between material consumption and carbon emissions, paying particular attention to supply chains associated with capital formation.

Critical supply chains for mitigating PM2.5 emission-related mortalities in India

Air pollution and its health-related effects are a major concern globally, and many people die from air pollution-related diseases each year. This study employed a structural path analysis combined with a health impact inventory database analysis to estimate the number of consumption-based PM_2.5 emission-related deaths attributed to India's power supply sector. We identified critical supply chain paths for direct (production) electricity use and indirect (consumption) use. We also considered both domestic and foreign final demand and its effect on PM_2.5 emission-related deaths. Several conclusions could be drawn from our results. First, the effect of indirect electricity usage on PM_2.5 emission-related deaths is approximately four times larger than that for direct usage. Second, a large percentage of pollution-related deaths can be attributed to India's domestic final demand usage; however, electricity usage in the intermediate and final demand sectors is inextricably linked. Third, foreign final demand sectors from the Middle East, the USA, and China contribute indirectly toward PM_2.5 emission-related deaths, specifically in the rice export supply chain. The results show that the Indian government should implement urgent measures to curb electricity use in rice supply chains in order to reduce the number of PM_2.5 emission-related deaths.

Forest Tax Payment Responsibility from the Forest Service Footprint Perspective

It has been observed that market failure has hampered the development of sustainable forest ecosystem services such as CO₂ absorption and fixation, water retention, and biodiversity. One of the reasons for this is that the link between forest land use and the beneficiaries of that use has not been widely recognized or clearly established. To address this problem, we conducted a footprint analysis to clarify the linkage between Japanese taxpayers as the beneficiaries of forest land use and the use of tax revenue and monetary donations for forest management. This study focuses on how the current forest tax collected from Japanese taxpayers (63 billion Japanese yen) could be allocated more fairly. The question of whether the collected taxes are sufficient is left for another time. At the core of our analysis, we examined the carbon footprint and established a linkage between the origins of CO₂ emissions in Japan and their destinations by using a subnational multiregional input-output database and building a base table focused on various land use types and subnational regions at the municipality level. By clarifying these linkages and enhancing their transparency, we provide a basis for developing alternative financing schemes involving both taxation and taxpayer donations in support of forest management activities and protection of biodiverse habitats.

Responsibility of consumers for mining capacity: decomposition analysis of scarcity-weighted metal footprints in the case of Japan

Metal-consuming countries depend on mining activity in other countries, which may impose potential pressure on sustainable metal supply. This study proposes an approach to analyze the responsibility of consuming countries for mining activities based on the decomposition analysis of scarcity-weighted metal footprints (S-MFs) of Japan. The application results to the Japanese final demand (iron, copper, and nickel) demonstrate the significance of country- and metal-specific conditions in terms of metal footprints and mining capacity in assessing the responsibility of consuming countries. Consuming countries can identify influential factors to reduce their S-MFs based on the decomposition analysis by discriminating the directly controllable and uncontrollable factors for consuming countries, which can help to plan different countermeasures depending on the types of the identified influential factors. The proposed approach supports metal-consuming countries to determine the effective options for reducing the responsibility for the sustainability of metal supply.

Global Metal Use Targets in Line with Climate Goals

Metals underpin essential functions in modern society, yet their production currently intensifies climate change. This paper develops global targets for metal flows, stocks, and use intensity in the global economy out to 2100. These targets are consistent with emissions pathways to achieve a 2 °C climate goal and cover six major metals (iron, aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel). Results indicate that despite advances in low-carbon metal production, a transformative system change to meet the society's needs with less metal is required to remain within a 2 °C pathway. Globally, demand for goods and services over the 21st century needs to be met with approximately 7 t/capita of metal stock-roughly half the current level in high-income countries. This systemic change will require a peak in global metal production by 2030 and deep decoupling of economic growth from both metal flows and stocks. Importantly, the identified science-based targets are theoretically achievable through such measures as efficient design, more intensive use, and longer product lifetime, but immediate action is crucial before middle- and low-income countries complete full-scale urbanization.

Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: "[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)". Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.

Our health, our planet: a cross-sectional analysis on the association between health consciousness and pro-environmental behavior among health professionals

One possible predictive factor that affects both pro-environmental behavior and health behavior is health consciousness (a psychological state where an individual is aware of and involved in his/her health condition). We examined the relationship between health consciousness and two pro-environmental behaviors (recycling and green purchasing) within health professionals in a Japanese large hospital. Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed a significant association between health consciousness and recycling behavior, while there was no association between health consciousness and green purchasing behavior. We assume that health consciousness can certainly be a factor promoting pro-environmental behavior, but that it may have been insufficient to cause green purchasing, because of the organizational norm of recycling in the Japanese context. Given that there is previous evidence about the relationship between health consciousness and health behavior, health consciousness might be a predictive factor that encourages both health behavior and pro-environmental behavior simultaneously.

Affluent countries inflict inequitable mortality and economic loss on Asia via PM2.5 emissions

This research sets out to quantify the mortality and economic loss in individual Asian countries caused by the PM_2.5 emissions induced by the consumption of the world's five highest-consuming countries (US, China, Japan, Germany, UK). In 2010 alone, the economic impact of these five countries' consumption caused a loss of almost 45 billion US dollars due to the premature deaths of more than 1 million people in Asia, including 15 thousand children younger than 5 years old. The percentage ratio of economic loss to value-added driven by consumers via trade differed greatly among the impacted countries. For the US, the highest percentage loss was 4.1% in Laos, followed by 2.0% in Bangladesh, both markedly higher than the figures for the more developed countries, such as 0.21% for Japan and 0.18% for Korea. This reflects the inequitable value chain existing between consumer countries and impacted countries, and implies that developing countries are obtaining value-added in exchange for unintentionally increased health risks, delaying their development and potentially creating a vicious circle that hinders much-needed improvements in areas like poverty reduction and public health. This inequitable situation needs to be redressed through introduction of clean energy and other types of technological assistance to help achieve United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7, 10 and 13. Such as move is essential if premature infant deaths are to be curtailed.

Clarifying Demographic Impacts on Embodied and Materially Retained Carbon toward Climate Change Mitigation

Modern lifestyles demand a number of products derived from petroleum-based sources that eventually cause carbon emissions. The quantification of lifestyle and household consumption impacts upon carbon emissions from both the embodied CO₂ (EC) and materially retained carbon (MRC) viewpoints is critical to deriving amelioration policies and meeting emission reduction goals. This study, for the first time, details a methodology to estimate both EC and MRC for Japan, focusing on petrochemicals and woody products utilizing the time series input-output table, physical value tables and the national survey of family income and expenditure, leveraging time series input-output-based material flow analysis (IO-MFA), and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Findings elucidated hot spots of deleterious consumption by age of householder and the critical factors which underpin them including intensity effects, pattern effects, and demographic shifts over time. Although demographic shifts associated with an aging, shrinking population in Japan decreased EC and MRC, the negative effect reduced in size over time during 1990-2005. Policy implications identify the potential to mitigate approximately 21% of required household emission reductions by 2030 through strategies including recycling initiatives and the recovery of carbon from products covered within current recycling laws and hot spot sectors which are not currently considered such as apparel.

Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles

Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to support the Paris agreement on climate change and sustainable material circulation. Here we develop a step toward the integrated simulation of energy-materials scenarios by unifying a stock-flow dynamics model for low-carbon scenarios using linear programming. The modeling framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines and end-of-life (EoL) recycling for projected use in electric vehicles on a global basis. The results show that supply constraints, which could become apparent from around 2030 in the case of current recycling rates (<1%), would impede the deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), leading to the generation of an additional 300 Mt-CO₂ of emissions for vehicle operation in 2050. Another important finding is that increasing the recycling rate to 80% could substantially relieve restrictions on the introduction of BEVs without requiring primary supply from natural deposits far beyond historical rates of expansion. While EoL recycling is important from a long-term perspective, an EoL-oriented strategy has little effect on the short/medium-term (such as to 2030) lithium demand-supply balance because of exponential demand growth and long living batteries. Importantly, findings in this study emphasize the necessity of tackling climate change and resource circulation in an integrated manner.

Global Distribution of Used and Unused Extracted Materials Induced by Consumption of Iron, Copper, and Nickel

In today's global economy, sustainable resource management requires a consumption perspective of resource use and insight into actual resource use through the global supply chain. The estimated global amount of used and unused extraction caused by mineral extraction of iron, copper, and nickel more than doubled from 1990 to 2013 (iron, 2.8-6.7 Pg; copper, 2.7-5.5 Pg; nickel, 0.19-0.60 Pg). By incorporating global material flow into a global link input-output model (GLIO, a hybrid multiregional IO model), we estimated the total used and unused extraction caused by iron, copper, and nickel mining induced by Japanese final demand to be 0.44, 0.52, and 0.043 Pg in 2011, respectively, equivalent to 7.1% of the total global extraction amount caused by iron mining, 11% of the amount caused by copper mining, and 10% of the amount caused by nickel mining. Whereas the world extraction total caused by iron, copper, and nickel mining rapidly increased from 2005 to 2011, the extraction amount induced by Japanese final demand for the same period either stayed about the same (iron) or decreased slightly (copper, 99% of the 2005 amount; nickel, 92%).

Global land-use change hidden behind nickel consumption

Economic growth is associated with a rapid rise in the use of natural resources within the economy, and has potential environmental impacts at local and/or global scales. In today's globalized economy, each country has indirect flows supporting its economic activities, and natural resource consumption through supply chains influences environmental impacts far removed from the place of consumption. One way to control environmental impacts associated with consumption of natural resources is to identify the consumption of natural resources and the associated environmental impacts through the global supply chain. In this study, we used a global link input-output model (GLIO, a hybrid multiregional input-output model) to detect the linkages between national nickel consumption and mining-associated global land-use changes. We focused on nickel, whose global demand has risen rapidly in recent years, as a case study. The estimated area of land-use change around the world caused by nickel mining in 2005 was 1.9km², and that induced by Japanese final demand for nickel was 0.38km². Our modeling also revealed that the areas of greatest land-use change associated with nickel mining were concentrated in only a few countries and regions far removed from the place of consumption. For example, 57.7% of the world's land-use changes caused by nickel mining were concentrated in five countries in 2005: Australia, 13.7%; Russia, 12.9%; Indonesia, 12.5%; New Caledonia, 10.4%; and Colombia, 8.2%. The mining-associated land-use change induced by Japanese final demand accounted for 19.5% of the total area affected by land-use change caused by nickel mining. The top three countries accounted for 70.6% (Indonesia: 47.0%, New Caledonia: 16.0%, and Australia: 7.7%), and the top five accounted for 82.4% (the Philippines: 7.5%, and Canada: 4.3%, in addition to the top three countries and regions).

Nitrogen footprints: Regional realities and options to reduce nitrogen loss to the environment

Nitrogen (N) management presents a sustainability dilemma: N is strongly linked to energy and food production, but excess reactive N causes environmental pollution. The N footprint is an indicator that quantifies reactive N losses to the environment from consumption and production of food and the use of energy. The average per capita N footprint (calculated using the N-Calculator methodology) of ten countries varies from 15 to 47 kg N capita-1 year-1. The major cause of the difference is the protein consumption rates and food production N losses. The food sector dominates all countries' N footprints. Global connections via trade significantly affect the N footprint in countries that rely on imported foods and feeds. The authors present N footprint reduction strategies (e.g., improve N use efficiency, increase N recycling, reduce food waste, shift dietary choices) and identify knowledge gaps (e.g., the N footprint from nonfood goods and soil N process).

Global mining risk footprint of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in Japan

Meeting the 2-degree global warming target requires wide adoption of low-carbon energy technologies. Many such technologies rely on the use of precious metals, however, increasing the dependence of national economies on these resources. Among such metals, those with supply security concerns are referred to as critical metals. Using the Policy Potential Index developed by the Fraser Institute, this study developed a new footprint indicator, the mining risk footprint (MRF), to quantify the mining risk directly and indirectly affecting a national economy through its consumption of critical metals. We formulated the MRF as a product of the material footprint (MF) of the consuming country and the mining risks of the countries where the materials are mined. A case study was conducted for the 2005 Japanese economy to determine the MF and MRF for three critical metals essential for emerging energy technologies: neodymium, cobalt and platinum. The results indicate that in 2005 the MFs generated by Japanese domestic final demand, that is, the consumption-based metal output of Japan, were 1.0 × 10(3) t for neodymium, 9.4 × 10(3) t for cobalt, and 2.1 × 10 t for platinum. Export demand contributes most to the MF, accounting for 3.0 × 10(3) t, 1.3 × 10(5) t, and 3.1 × 10 t, respectively. The MRFs of Japanese total final demand (domestic plus export) were calculated to be 1.7 × 10 points for neodymium, 4.5 × 10(-2) points for cobalt, and 5.6 points for platinum, implying that the Japanese economy is incurring a high mining risk through its use of neodymium. This country's MRFs are all dominated by export demand. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications and future research directions for measuring the MFs and MRFs of critical metals. For countries poorly endowed with mineral resources, adopting low-carbon energy technologies may imply a shifting of risk from carbon resources to other natural resources, in particular critical metals, and a trade-off between increased mining risk and deployment of such technologies. Our analysis constitutes a first step toward quantifying and managing the risks associated with natural resource mining.

Changes in the carbon footprint of Japanese households in an aging society

As the aging and low birthrate trends continue in Japan, and as changes in the working population and consumption patterns occur, new factors are expected to have an impact on consumption-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We present the impacts of changes in the composition of Japanese households on GHG emission structures using current (2005) consumption-based accounting on the commodity sectors that are expected to require priority efforts for reducing emissions in 2035. This is done using the Global Link Input-Output model (GLIO) and domestic household consumption data and assuming that recent detailed consumption expenditures based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) will continue into the future. The results show that consumption-based GHG emissions derived from Japanese household consumption in 2035 are estimated to be 1061 Mt-CO2eq (4.2% lower than in 2005). This study can be used to reveal more information and as a resource in developing policies to more meticulously and efficiently reduce emissions based on emission and import rates for each domestic and overseas commodity supply chain.

Global flows of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum

This study, encompassing 231 countries and regions, quantifies the global transfer of three critical metals (neodymium, cobalt, and platinum) considered vital for low-carbon technologies by means of material flow analysis (MFA), using trade data (BACI) and the metal contents of trade commodities, resolving the optimization problem to ensure the material balance of the metals within each country and region. The study shows that in 2005 international trade led to global flows of 18.6 kt of neodymium, 154 kt of cobalt, and 402 t of platinum and identifies the main commodities and top 50 bilateral trade links embodying these metals. To explore the issue of consumption efficiency, the flows were characterized according to the technological level of each country or region and divided into three types: green ("efficient use"), yellow ("moderately efficient use"), and red ("inefficient use"). On this basis, the shares of green, yellow, and red flows in the aggregate global flow of Nd were found to be 1.2%, 98%, and 1.2%, respectively. For Co, the respective figures are 53%, 28%, and 19%, and for Pt 15%, 84%, and 0.87%. Furthermore, a simple indicator focusing on the composition of the three colored flows for each commodity was developed to identify trade commodities that should be prioritized for urgent technical improvement to reduce wasteful use of the metals. Based on the indicator, we discuss logical, strategic identification of the responsibilities and roles of the countries involved in the global flows.

Estimates of embodied global energy and air-emission intensities of Japanese products for building a Japanese input-output life cycle assessment database with a global system boundary

To build a life cycle assessment (LCA) database of Japanese products embracing their global supply chains in a manner requiring lower time and labor burdens, this study estimates the intensity of embodied global environmental burden for commodities produced in Japan. The intensity of embodied global environmental burden is a measure of the environmental burden generated globally by unit production of the commodity and can be used as life cycle inventory data in LCA. The calculation employs an input-output LCA method with a global link input-output model that defines a global system boundary grounded in a simplified multiregional input-output framework. As results, the intensities of embodied global environmental burden for 406 Japanese commodities are determined in terms of energy consumption, greenhouse-gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and their summation), and air-pollutant emissions (nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide). The uncertainties in the intensities of embodied global environmental burden attributable to the simplified structure of the global link input-output model are quantified using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, by analyzing the structure of the embodied global greenhouse-gas intensities we characterize Japanese commodities in the context of LCA embracing global supply chains.

High-resolution inventory of Japanese anthropogenic mercury emissions

Heavy metals like mercury that are emitted into the environment remain there indefinitely, posing a long-term threat to both the environment and human health. Elemental mercury is volatile and is in gaseous form, and because of the long residence time, transported over long distances. Comprehensive control of mercury emissions therefore remains an important international issue. The crucial steps for designing effective approaches for such control include the quantification of mercury emissions by sources and the identification of geographical characteristics of the emissions. In this study a detailed, high-resolution inventory of Japanese mercury emissions in 2005 was developed to improve understanding of their geographical distribution. Proceeding from a national emissions inventory per source category, emissions were spatially allocated with increasing geographical resolution in a stepwise procedure using statistics from geographic information resources, yielding mercury emissions per prefecture, per municipality and per grid cell of approximately 1 × 1 km. The five prefectures with the highest emissions were Fukuoka, Yamaguchi, Hyogo, Oita, and Hokkaido, accounting for 35.2% of all emissions. In each prefecture a small number of municipalities account for a major share of emissions. Distribution by grid cell is characterized by a concentration of 50% of all emissions in a mere 32 of the 255 954 grid cells over which emissions are distributed in this study. It was also quantitatively confirmed that use of larger grid cells leads to greater uncertainty in emissions distribution. Problems with data collection are clarified and measures to improve the accuracy of future estimation are proposed.

Characterization of economic requirements for a "carbon-debt-free country"

In recent years, greenhouse gas emission controls that incorporate the supply chains of products and services, thereby emphasizing the role of consumers rather than producers, have been drawing increasing attention. A country's consumption-based emissions, including those due to global supply chains, reflect the total emissions on which the national economy relies. To design effective emissions control strategies there is therefore an urgent need for countries to elucidate the structural relationship between their domestic economy and emissions occurring through global supply chains. Here we consider the structural characteristics of consumption-based emissions in Japan, which in 2005 totaled 1675 Mt CO(2)eq. Outside the country the Japanese economy generated global emissions of 541 Mt CO(2)eq, 35.7% of which were UNFCCC Annex I emissions and 64.3% were non-Annex I and other emissions. This figure of 64.3% reveals that Japan is actually relying to a considerable degree on emissions that are subject to no international obligations. We identify key economic contributors to consumption-based emissions at the commodity level and specify items of household expenditure that are effective options for both financial savings and emissions reduction. We then discuss the importance of emissions control for evolving toward a "carbon-debt-free country".

Role of motor vehicle lifetime extension in climate change policy

Vehicle replacement schemes such as the "cash for clunkers" program in the U.S. and the "scrappage scheme" in the UK have featured prominently in the economic stimulation packages initiated by many governments to cope with the global economic crisis. While these schemes were designed as economic instruments to support the vehicle production industry, governments have also claimed that these programs have environmental benefits such as reducing CO2 emissions by bringing more fuel-efficient vehicles onto the roads. However, little evidence is available to support this claim as current energy and environmental accounting models are inadequate for comprehensively capturing the economic and environmental trade-offs associated with changes in product life and product use. We therefore developed a new dynamic model to quantify the carbon emissions due to changes in product life and consumer behavior related to product use. Based on a case study of Japanese vehicle use during the 1990-2000 period, we found that extending, not shortening, the lifetime of a vehicle helps to reduce life-cycle CO2 emissions throughout the supply chain. Empirical results also revealed that even if the fuel economy of less fuel-efficient ordinary passenger vehicles were improved to levels comparable with those of the best available technology, i.e. hybrid passenger cars currently being produced in Japan, total CO2 emissions would decrease by only 0.2%. On the other hand, we also find that extending the lifetime of a vehicle contributed to a moderate increase in emissions of health-relevant air pollutants (NOx, HC, and CO) during the use phase. From the results, this study concludes that the effects of global warming and air pollution can be somewhat moderated and that these problems can be addressed through specific policy instruments directed at increasing the market for hybrid cars as well as extending lifetime of automobiles, which is contrary to the current wisdom.

Hybrid life-cycle assessment (LCA) of CO2 emission with management alternatives for household food wastes in Japan

In this study, we conducted a hybrid life-cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate reductions in CO(2) emissions by food waste biogasification of household food wastes in Japan. Two alternative scenarios were examined. In one alternative (Ref), all combustible municipal solid wastes (MSWs), including food waste, are incinerated. In the other (Bio), food waste is biogasified, while the other combustible wastes are incinerated. An inventory analysis of energy and material flow in the MSW management system was conducted. Subsequently, the inventory data were summarized into an input-output format, and a make-use input-output framework was applied. Furthermore, a production equilibrium model was established using a matrix representing the input- output relationship of energy and materials among the processes and sectors. Several levels of power generation efficiency from incineration were applied as a sensitivity analysis. The hybrid LCA indicated that the difference between the Bio and Ref scenarios, from the perspective of CO( 2) emissions, is relatively small. However, a 13-14% reduction of CO(2) emissions of the total waste management sector in Japan may be achieved by improving the efficiency of power generation from incineration from 10% to 25%.

Material and energy dependence of services and its implications for climate change

As the services industry has grown and diversified, there has been a rapid rise in the share of energy and material costs in provision of services. As a result, services, which have traditionally been considered immaterial by their nature, are now absorbing substantial amounts of energy and material goods. By decomposing the CO2 emissions embodied in material goods and services, this study quantitatively analyzes the implications of energy and materials consumption in services for the change in indirect CO2 emissions by household consumers in Japan. The results show that the domestic CO2 emissions associated with the energy and material goods absorbed by services through the supply chain increased consistently during the decade 1990-2000, thereby constituting a key element in the rise in CO2 emissions due to household consumption. The energy and materials within the supply chain underlying services that have been identified as the main causes of this increase include electric power consumption, petroleum products, building renovation and repair, distribution of printed materials, plastic products and water, all of which are necessary to support the services in question. This study highlights the increasing importance of energy and materials consumption by services in the context of climate change policy.

How has dematerialization contributed to reducing oil price pressure?: a qualitative input-output analysis for the Japanese economy during 1990-2000

The evolution of crude oil use structure and its impacts on commodity prices are examined for Japanese economy between 1990 and 2000. We found that the out-degree of the production network, indicating the extent of the pressure on prices of downstream industries in response to higher crude oil prices, decreased in several sectors between 1990 and 2000. The results by sector showed that the decrease was greatest in the chemical product- and iron and steel manufacturing sectors, which both indirectly use crude oil. The decrease in out-degree is considered to have been caused by improved efficiency in the production of oil-related products and increase in energy savings by the manufacturing facilities in these sectors. In addition, many of the sectors having a high out-degree engage in intermediate product production. Conversely, the in-degree, which represents the extent of being pressured by other sectors with increased crude oil prices, also decreased during the period between 1990 and 2000. From the result of the in-degree, this study found that dematerialization and weight reduction of final products such as "cellular phones" and "personal computers" had a marked effect on decreasing in-degree. More importantly, for the top-ranked sectors with the high out-degree and in-degree, such as "aliphatic intermediates", "chemical fertilizers", "plastic products", "hot rolled steel", "yarn and fabric dyeing and finishing", the results suggest that the pressure due to rising crude oil prices can be more effectively eased by implementing measures targeted at upstream products and sectors, while current policy measures to alleviate oil-price induced inflation are mainly targeted at downstream products such as gasoline.

Simple indicator to identify the environmental soundness of growth of consumption and technology: "eco-velocity of consumption"

Today's material welfare has been achieved at the expense of consumption of finite resources and generation of environmental burdens. Over the past few decades the volume of global consumption has grown dramatically, while at the same time technological advances have enabled products with greater efficiencies. These two directions of change, consumption growth and technological advance, are the foci of the present paper. Using quantitative measures for these two factors, we define a new indicator, "eco-velocity of consumption", analogous to velocity in physics. The indicator not only identifies the environmental soundness of consumption growth and technological advance but also indicates whether and to what extent our society is shifting toward sustainable consumption. This study demonstrates the practicability of the indicator through a case study in which we calculate the eco-velocities of Japanese household consumption in 2 years: 1995 and 2000. The rate of technological advance during the periods concerned is quantified in terms of the embodied carbon dioxide emission per yen of product. The results show that the current growth rate of Japanese household consumption is greater than the rate of technological advance to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. The eco-velocities at the level of individual commodity groups are also examined, and the sources of changes in eco-velocity for each commodity are identified using structural decomposition analysis.

Site-dependent life-cycle analysis by the SAME approach: its concept usefulness, and application to the calculation of embodied impact intensity by means of an input-output analysis

This paper describes a practical approach to site-dependent life-cycle analysis (SDLCA) that differentiates site-dependent environmental impacts from a system's processes by considering the geographical conditions of each process. This approach converts an environmental output into its impacts by using site-dependent characterization factors (SDCFs). This approach defines an area-the Spatial Area of iMpact Equivalency (SAME)-within the boundaries of the geographical system during site-dependent life-cycle inventory (SDLCI) analysis and calculates an environmental output from a process for the SAMEs. Each SAME represents a collection of geographical areas with internally homogeneous environmental impacts and can be mapped using a geographic information system. Preparing a SDLCI and SDCFs based on SAMEs facilitates the implementation of SDLCA by permitting the use of fewer regions during SDLCI. To demonstrate application of the SAME approach, an embodied impact intensity was formulated; it quantifies the impact directly and indirectly on the basis of the unit activity of a sector by means of input-output analysis with SDCFs. The validity of using SAMEs for SDLCA is demonstrated through two case studies: one studying suspended particulate matter, and one studying benzene. In both cases, the impact intensities are calculated using the SAME approach and the results are compared with those of site-generic LCI.

Geo-referenced multimedia environmental fate model (G-CIEMS): model formulation and comparison to the generic model and monitoring approaches

A spatially resolved and geo-referenced dynamic multimedia environmental fate model, G-CIEMS (Grid-Catchment Integrated Environmental Modeling System) was developed on a geographical information system (GIS). The case study for Japan based on the air grid cells of 5 x 5 km resolution and catchments with an average area of 9.3 km2, which corresponds to about 40,000 air grid cells and 38,000 river segments/catchment polygons, were performed for dioxins, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and di-(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate. The averaged concentration of the model and monitoring output were within a factor of 2-3 for all the media. Outputs from G-CIEMS and the generic model were essentially comparable when identical parameters were employed, whereas the G-CIEMS model gave explicit information of distribution of chemicals in the environment. Exposure-weighted averaged concentrations (EWAC) in air were calculated to estimate the exposure ofthe population, based on the results of generic, G-CIEMS, and monitoring approaches. The G-CIEMS approach showed significantly better agreement with the monitoring-derived EWAC than the generic model approach. Implication for the use of a geo-referenced modeling approach in the risk assessment scheme is discussed as a generic-spatial approach, which can be used to provide more accurate exposure estimation with distribution information, using generally available data sources for a wide range of chemicals.

Compilation and application of Japanese inventories for energy consumption and air pollutant emissions using input-output tables

Preparing emission inventories is essential to the assessment and management of our environment. In this study, Japanese air pollutant emissions, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions categorized by approximately 400 sectors (as classified by Japanese input-output tables in 1995) were estimated, and the contributions of each sector to the total amounts were analyzed. The air pollutants examined were nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), and suspended particulate matter (SPM). Consumptions of about 20 fossil fuels and five other fuels were estimated according to sector. Air pollutant emission factors for stationary sources were calculated from the results of a survey on air pollution prevention in Japan. Pollutant emissions from mobile sources were estimated taking into consideration vehicle types, traveling speeds, and distances. This work also counted energy supply and emissions from seven nonfossil fuel sources, including nonthermal electric power, and CO2 emissions from limestone (for example, during cement production). The total energy consumption in 1995 was concluded to be 18.3 EJ, and the annual total emissions of CO2, NOx, SOx, and SPM were, respectively, 343 Mt-C, 3.51 Mt, 1.87 Mt, and 0.32 Mt. An input-output analysis of the emission inventories was used to calculate the amounts of energy consumption and emissions induced in each sector by the economic final demand.