Distribution of volatile organic compounds over Indian subcontinent during winter: WRF-chem simulation versus observations

Hotspot driven air pollution during crop residue burning season in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, India

Intensive crop residue burning (CRB) in northern India triggers severe air pollution episodes over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) each year during October and November. We have quantified the contribution of hotspot districts (HSDs) and total CRB to poor air quality over the IGP. Initially, we investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of CRB fire within the domain and pinpointed five HSD in each Punjab and Haryana. Furthermore, we have simulated air quality and quantified the impact of CRB using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), incorporating recent anthropogenic emissions (EDGAR v5) and biomass burning emissions (FINN v2.4) inventories, along with MOZART-MOSAIC chemistry. The key finding is that HSDs contributed ∼80% and ∼50% of the total fire counts in Haryana and Punjab, respectively. The model effectively captured observed PM₂.₅ concentrations, with a normalized mean bias (NMB) below 0.2 and R-squared (R2) exceeding 0.65 at the majority of validation sites. However, some discrepancies were observed at a few sites in Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and West Bengal. The National Capital Region experienced the highest PM₂.₅ concentrations, followed by Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. Moreover, HSDs were responsible for about 70% of the total increase in CRB-induced PM₂.₅ in the western, central, and eastern cities, and around 50% in the northern cities. By eliminating CRB emissions across the domain, we could potentially save approximately 18,000 lives annually. Policymakers, scientists, and institutions can leverage the framework to address air pollution at national and global scales by targeting source-specific hotspots. This approach, coupled with appropriate technological and financial solutions, can contribute to achieving climate change and sustainable development goals.

A review of the CAMx, CMAQ, WRF-Chem and NAQPMS models: Application, evaluation and uncertainty factors

With the gradual deepening of the research and governance of air pollution, chemical transport models (CTMs), especially the third-generation CTMs based on the "1 atm" theory, have been recognized as important tools for atmospheric environment research and air quality management. In this review article, we screened 2396 peer-reviewed manuscripts on the application of four pre-selected regional CTMs in the past five years. CAMx, CMAQ, WRF-Chem and NAQPMS models are well used in the simulation of atmospheric pollutants. In the simulation study of secondary pollutants such as O3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), sulfates, nitrates, and ammonium (SNA), the CMAQ model has been widely applied. Secondly, model evaluation indicators are diverse, and the establishment of evaluation criteria has gone through the long-term efforts of predecessors. However, the model performance evaluation system still needs further specification. Furthermore, temporal-spatial resolution, emission inventory, meteorological field and atmospheric chemical mechanism are the main sources of uncertainty, and have certain interference with the simulation results. Among them, the inventory and mechanism are particularly important, and are also the top priorities in future simulation research.

High-resolution mapping of regional VOCs using the enhanced space-time extreme gradient boosting machine (XGBoost) in Shanghai

The accurate estimation of highly spatiotemporal volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is of great significance to establish advanced early warning systems and regulate air pollution control. However, the estimation of high spatiotemporal VOCs remains incomplete. Here, the space-time extreme gradient boost model (STXGB) was enhanced by integrating spatiotemporal information to obtain the spatial resolution and overall accuracy of VOCs. To this end, meteorological, topographical and pollutant emissions, was input to the STXGB model, and regional hourly 300 m VOCs maps for 2020 in Shanghai were produced. Our results show that the STXGB model achieve good hourly VOCs estimations performance (R2 = 0.73). A further analysis of SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) regression indicate that local interpretations of the STXGB models demonstrate the strong contribution of emissions on mapping VOCs estimations, while acknowledging the important contribution of space and time term. The proposed approach outperforms many traditional machine learning models with a lower computational burden in terms of speed and memory.

Identification of volatile organic compound emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources based on satellite observation of formaldehyde and glyoxal

Anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are serious pollutants in the atmosphere because of their toxicity and as precursors of secondary organic aerosols and ozone pollution. Although in-situ measurements provide accurate information on VOCs, their spatial coverage is limited and insufficient. In this study, we provide a global perspective for identifying anthropogenic VOC emission sources through the ratio of glyoxal to formaldehyde (RGF) based on satellite observations. We assessed typical cities and polluted areas in the mid latitudes and found that some Asian cities had higher anthropogenic VOC emissions than cities in Europe and America. For heavily polluted areas, such as the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), the areas dominated by anthropogenic VOCs accounted for 23 % of the total study areas. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant decline in RGF values was observed in the YRD and western United States, corresponding to a reduction in anthropogenic VOC emissions. Furthermore, developing countries appeared to have higher anthropogenic VOC emissions than developed countries. These observations could contribute to optimising industrial structures and setting stricter pollution standards to reduce anthropogenic VOCs in developing countries.

Frequency distribution of pollutant concentrations over Indian megacities impacted by the COVID-19 lockdown

The megacities experience poor air quality frequently due to stronger anthropogenic emissions. India had one of the longest lockdowns in 2020 to curb the spread of COVID-19, leading to reductions in the emissions from anthropogenic activities. In this article, the frequency distributions of different pollutants have been analysed over two densely populated megacities: Delhi (28.70° N; 77.10° E) and Kolkata (22.57° N; 88.36° E). In Delhi, the percentage of days with PM_2.5 levels exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) between 25 March and 17 June dropped from 98% in 2019 to 61% in 2020. The lockdown phase 1 brought down the PM₁₀ (particulate matter having an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) levels below the daily NAAQS limit over Delhi and Kolkata. However, PM₁₀ exceeded the limit of 100 μgm^-3 during phases 2-5 of lockdown over Delhi due to lower temperature, weaker winds, increased relative humidity and commencement of limited traffic movement. The PM_2.5 levels exhibit a regressive trend in the highest range from the year 2019 to 2020 in Delhi. The daily mean value for PM_2.5 concentrations dropped from 85-90 μgm^-3 to 40-45 μgm^-3 bin, whereas the PM₁₀ levels witnessed a reduction from 160-180 μgm^-3 to 100-120 μgm^-3 bin due to the lockdown. Kolkata also experienced a shift in the peak of PM₁₀ distribution from 80-100 μgm^-3 in 2019 to 20-40 μgm^-3 during the lockdown. The PM_2.5 levels in peak frequency distribution were recorded in the 35-40 μgm^-3 bin in 2019 which dropped to 15-20 μgm^-3 in 2020. In line with particulate matter, other primary gaseous pollutants (NO_x, CO, SO₂, NH₃) also showed decline. However, changes in O₃ showed mixed trends with enhancements in some of the phases and reductions in other phases. In contrast to daily mean O₃, 8-h maximum O₃ showed a reduction over Delhi during lockdown phases except for phase 3. Interestingly, the time of daily maximum was observed to be delayed by ~ 2 h over Delhi (from 1300 to 1500 h) and ~ 1 h over Kolkata (from 1300 to 1400 h) almost coinciding with the time of maximum temperature, highlighting the role of meteorology versus precursors. Emission reductions weakened the chemical sink of O₃ leading to enhancement (120%; 11 ppbv) in night-time O₃ over Delhi during phases 1-3.

Four year long simulation of carbonaceous aerosols in India: Seasonality, sources and associated health effects

India's air quality is in a dismal state, with many studies ascribing it to PM_2.5. Most of these corroborate that carbonaceous aerosol (CA) constitute significant fraction of PM_2.5. However, investigations on the effect of long-term meteorological or emission changes on PM_2.5 and its components, and their associated health effects are rare. In this work, WRF-Chem simulations for three seasons over four years (2016-2019) were carried out to cogitate the spatial and temporal changes in PM_2.5 and its components in India. Model predicted PM_2.5 concentrations were in good agreement with the ground-based observations for 25 cities. PM_2.5 was highest in winter and lowest in pre-monsoon. PM_2.5 reduced by ∼8% in Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) but increased by ∼38% and ∼130% in south and northeast India, respectively, from 2016 to 2019. IGP witnessed three times higher average PM_2.5 concentrations than south India. No significant interannual change in CA contributions was observed, however, it peaked in the winter season. Other inorganics (OIN) were the major component of PM_2.5, contributing more than 40%. Primary organic aerosol (POA) fractions were higher in north India, while secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) dominated south India. Transport and residential sectors were the chief contributors to CA across India. Biomass burning contributed up to ∼23% of PM_2.5 in regions of IGP during post-monsoon, with CA fractions up to 50%. Associations between PM_2.5 and its components with daily inpatient admissions from a tertiary care centre in Delhi showed that PM_2.5 and OIN had lower associations with daily hospital admissions than CA. Every 10 μg/m³ increase in POA, black carbon (BC), and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) were associated with ∼1.09%, ∼3.07% and ∼4.93% increase in the risk of daily hospital admissions. This invigorates the need for more policies targeting CA rather than PM_2.5 to mitigate associated health risks, in India.

Spatiotemporal changes in aerosols over Bangladesh using 18 years of MODIS and reanalysis data

In this study, combined Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD_{550 nm}) data the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) flying on the Terra and Aqua satellites during the years 2003-2020 are used as a reference to assess the performance of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) and the second version of Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) AOD over Bangladesh. The study also investigates long-term spatiotemporal variations and trends in AOD, and determines the relative contributions from different aerosol species (black carbon: BC, dust, organic carbon: OC, sea salt: SS, and sulfate) and anthropogenic emissions to the total AOD. As the evaluations suggest higher accuracy for CAMS than for MERRA-2, CAMS is used for further analysis of AOD over Bangladesh. The annual mean AOD from both CAMS and MODIS DTB is high (>0.60) over most parts of Bangladesh except for the eastern areas of Chattogram and Sylhet. Higher AOD is observed in spring and winter than in summer and autumn, which is mainly due to higher local anthropogenic emissions during the winter to spring season. Annual trends from 2003-2020 show a significant increase in AOD (by 0.006-0.014 year^-1) over Bangladesh, and this increase in AOD was more evident in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. The increasing total AOD is caused by rising anthropogenic emissions and accompanied by changes in aerosol species (with increased OC, sulfate, and BC). Overall, this study improves understanding of aerosol pollution in Bangladesh and can be considered as a supportive document for Bangladesh to improve air quality by reducing anthropogenic emissions.

Improved positive matrix factorization for source apportionment of volatile organic compounds in vehicular emissions during the Spring Festival in Tianjin, China

Photochemical losses of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and uncertainties in calculated factor profiles can reduce the accuracy of source apportionment by positive matrix factorization (PMF). We developed an improved PMF method (termed ICLP-PMF) that estimated the reaction-corrected ("initial") concentrations of VOCs. Source profiles from literature provided constraints. ICLP-PMF evaluated the vehicular emission contributions to hourly speciated VOC data from December 2020 to March 2021 and estimated gasoline and diesel vehicles contributions to Tianjin's VOC concentrations around the Chinese Spring Festival (SF). The average observed and initial total VOCs (TVOCs) concentrations were 24.2 and 42.9 ppbv, respectively. Alkanes were the highest concentration VOCs while aromatics showed the largest photochemical losses during the study period. Literature gasoline and diesel profiles from representative Chinese cities were constructed and provided constraints. Source apportionment was performed using ICLP-PMF method and three other PMF approaches. Photochemical losses of alkenes and aromatic hydrocarbons induced differences between calculated factor profiles and literature profiles. Using observed concentrations and unconstrained profiles produced underestimated SF contributions (∼121% and 72% for gasoline and diesel vehicles, respectively). According to the ICLP-PMF results, the contributions of gasoline and diesel vehicles during the SF were 25.6% and 23.2%, respectively, lower than those before and after the SF. No diel diesel vehicle contribution variations were found during the SF likely due to the decline in truck activity north of the study site during the holiday period.

Photochemical evolution of air in a tropical urban environment of India: A model-based study

The photochemical processes over tropical Indian region impact the atmospheric composition and air quality over local to global scales; nevertheless, studies on detailed atmospheric chemistry remain sparse in this region. In this study, we investigate the photochemical evolution of air in the downwind of a tropical semi-arid urban environment (Ahmedabad) in India using the Master Mechanism model. The 5-days long chemical evolution has been simulated for the winter conditions - when this region experiences strong ozone build up. Model environment has been set up by including the meteorological conditions, overhead ozone, and aerosol loading, etc. Nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O₃), and several volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have been initialized in the model based on the wintertime observations. The model predicts large O₃ production (∼115 ppbv) in the downwind regions, followed by a gradual decrease from the 3^rd day onwards. Additionally, significant amounts of the secondary inorganics, e.g. nitric acid (∼17 ppbv), hydrogen peroxide (∼9 ppbv), and organics, e.g. ketones (∼11 ppbv), are also simulated. The noontime maximum levels of hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxyl (HO₂) radicals are simulated to be 0.3 and 44 pptv, respectively. While the production of OH is dominated by the reaction of NO with HO₂ on the first day, photolysis of O₃ dominates subsequently with reduction in NO_x levels. VOCs are the major OH sink during day 1, however contribution of CO is greater on further days. The air mass trajectory analysis suggests the outflow of ozone-rich air over the rural areas and the Arabian Sea, in agreement with measurements and a global model. Our study highlights the strong impact of the urban outflows on the regional atmospheric composition. The continuous measurements of VOCs and radicals are needed over tropical regions to complement the models and further improve the understanding of air chemistry.

Interpreting the COVID effect on atmospheric constituents over the Indian region during the lockdown: chemistry, meteorology, and seasonality

Most of the published articles which document changes in atmospheric compositions during the various lockdown and unlock phases of COVID-19 pandemic have made a direct comparison to a reference point (which may be 1 year apart) for attribution of the COVID-mediated lockdown impact on atmospheric composition. In the present study, we offer a better attribution of the lockdown impacts by also considering the effect of meteorology and seasonality. We decrease the temporal distance between the impacted and reference points by considering the difference of adjacent periods first and then comparing the impacted point to the mean of several reference points in the previous years. Additionally, we conduct a multi-station analysis to get a holistic effect of the different climatic and emission regimes. In several places in eastern and coastal India, the seasonally induced changes already pointed to a decrease in PM concentrations based on the previous year data; hence, the actual decrease due to lockdown would be much less than that observed just on the basis of difference of concentrations between subsequent periods. In contrast, northern Indian stations would normally show an increase in PM concentration at the time of the year when lockdown was effected; hence, actual lockdown-induced change would be in surplus of the observed change. The impact of wind-borne transport of pollutants to the study sites dominates over the dilution effects. Box model simulations point to a VOC-sensitive composition.

Exploring the potential of machine learning for simulations of urban ozone variability

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful technique in the Earth system science, nevertheless, its potential to model complex atmospheric chemistry remains largely unexplored. Here, we applied ML to simulate the variability in urban ozone (O₃) over Doon valley of the Himalaya. The ML model, trained with past variations in O₃ and meteorological conditions, successfully reproduced the independent O₃ data (r² ~ 0.7). Model performance is found to be similar when the variation in major precursors (CO and NO_x) were included in the model, instead of the meteorology. Further the inclusion of both precursors and meteorology improved the performance significantly (r² = 0.86) and the model could also capture the outliers, which are crucial for air quality assessments. We suggest that in absence of high-resolution measurements, ML modeling has profound implications for unraveling the feedback between pollution and meteorology in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.

A new perspective of probing the level of pollution in the megacity Delhi affected by crop residue burning using the triple oxygen isotope technique in atmospheric CO2

Air quality in the megacity Delhi is affected not only by local emissions but also by pollutants from crop residue burning in the surrounding areas of the city, particularly the rice straw burning in the post monsoon season. As a major burning product, gaseous CO₂, which is rather inert in the polluted atmosphere, provides an alternative solution to characterize the impact of biomass burning from a new perspective that other common tracers such as particulate matters are limited because of their physical and chemical reactiveness. Here, we report conventional ([CO₂], δ¹³C, and δ¹⁸O) and unconventional (Δ¹⁷O) isotope data for CO₂ collected at Connaught Place (CP), a core area in the megacity Delhi, and two surrounding remote regions during a field campaign in October 18-20, 2017. We also measured the isotopic ratios near a rice straw burning site in Taiwan to constrain their end member isotopic compositions. Rice straw burning produces CO₂ with δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O, and Δ¹⁷O values of -29.02 ± 0.65, 19.63 ± 1.16, and 0.05 ± 0.02‰, respectively. The first two isotopic tracers are less distinguishable from those emitted by fossil fuel combustion but the last one is significantly different. We then utilize these end member isotopic ratios, with emphasis on Δ¹⁷O for the reason given above, for partitioning sources that affect the CO₂ level in Delhi. Anthropogenic fraction of CO₂ at CP ranges from 4 to 40%. Further analysis done by employing a three-component (background, rice straw burning, and fuel combustion) mixing model with constraints from the Δ¹⁷O values yields that rice straw burning contributes as much as ∼70% of the total anthropogenic CO₂, which is more than double of the fossil fuel contribution (∼30%), during the study days.

On the widespread enhancement in fine particulate matter across the Indo-Gangetic Plain towards winter

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5, aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm) impacts the climate, reduces visibility and severely influences human health. The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), home to about one-seventh of the world's total population and a hotspot of aerosol loading, observes strong enhancements in the PM2.5 concentrations towards winter. We performed high-resolution (12 km × 12 km) atmospheric chemical transport modeling (WRF-Chem) for the post-monsoon to winter transition to unravel the underlying dynamics and influences of regional emissions over the region. Model, capturing the observed variations to an extent, reveals that the spatial distribution of PM2.5 having patches of enhanced concentrations (≥100 µgm-3) during post-monsoon, evolves dramatically into a widespread enhancement across the IGP region during winter. A sensitivity simulation, supported by satellite observations of fires, shows that biomass-burning emissions over the northwest IGP play a crucial role during post-monsoon. Whereas, in contrast, towards winter, a large-scale decline in the air temperature, significantly shallower atmospheric boundary layer, and weaker winds lead to stagnant conditions (ventilation coefficient lower by a factor of ~4) thereby confining the anthropogenic influences closer to the surface. Such changes in the controlling processes from post-monsoon to winter transition profoundly affect the composition of the fine aerosols over the IGP region. The study highlights the need to critically consider the distinct meteorological processes of west-to-east IGP and changes in dominant sources from post-monsoon to winter in the formulation of future pollution mitigation policies.