The 2011 heat wave in Greater Houston: Effects of land use on temperature

A Case-Crossover Analysis of Indoor Heat Exposure on Mortality and Hospitalizations among the Elderly in Houston, Texas

BACKGROUND

Despite the substantial role indoor exposure has played in heat wave-related mortality, few epidemiological studies have examined the health effects of exposure to indoor heat. As a result, knowledge gaps regarding indoor heat-health thresholds, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity persist.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the role of indoor heat exposure on mortality and morbidity among the elderly (≥65 years of age) in Houston, Texas.

METHODS

Mortality and emergency hospital admission data were obtained through the Texas Department of State Health Services. Summer indoor heat exposure was modeled at the U.S. Census block group (CBG) level using building energy models, outdoor weather data, and building characteristic data. Indoor heat-health associations were examined using time-stratified case-crossover models, controlling for temporal trends and meteorology, and matching on CBG of residence, year, month, and weekday of the adverse health event. Separate models were fitted for three indoor exposure metrics, for individual lag days 0-6, and for 3-d moving averages (lag 0-2). Effect measure modification was explored via stratification on individual- and area-level vulnerability factors.

RESULTS

We estimated positive associations between short-term changes in indoor heat exposure and cause-specific mortality and morbidity [e.g., circulatory deaths, odds ratio per 5°C increase=1.16 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.30)]. Associations were generally positive for earlier lag periods and weaker across later lag periods. Stratified analyses suggest stronger associations between indoor heat and emergency hospital admissions among African Americans compared with Whites.

DISCUSSION

Findings suggest excess mortality among certain elderly populations in Houston who are likely exposed to high indoor heat. We developed a novel methodology to estimate indoor heat exposure that can be adapted to other U.S.

LOCATIONS

In locations with high air conditioning prevalence, simplified modeling approaches may adequately account for indoor heat exposure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Accounting for indoor heat exposure may improve the estimation of the total impact of heat on health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6340.

In situ, high-resolution measurement of labile phosphate in sediment porewater using the DET technique coupled with optimized imaging densitometry

Obtaining two-dimensional distributions of reactive phosphorus in sediment porewater is very important for understanding fine-scale phosphorus mobilization and sequestration processes in sediments. In this study, the diffusive equilibrium in thin films (DET) measurement based on computer imaging densitometry (CID) was studied in detail with optimal conditions described. This study focuses on evaluating the two-dimensional colorimetric DET method coupled with CID (DET-CID method) for porewater labile phosphate measurements. The result shows that the red channel filter is the optimum channel for sensitivity to process the image. Additionally, staining time and temperature have great influence on the method, and 20 min staining time and ≥25 °C staining temperature were recommended. The minimum detection limit of labile phosphate of this method was 0.300 mg P/L, and the maximum detection limit could reach 50.00 mg P/L. The DET-CID technique can be used to measure labile phosphate in a wide range of acidic and alkaline water bodies (pH = 2-10 and water hardness from 0 to 2000 mg/L as CaCO₃). The linear regression analysis shows that this technique presents very similar results compared with other two existing methods (R² = 0.999). Our results would give insights into the precisely measurements of labile phosphate in field applications.

Wearable sensors for personal temperature exposure assessments: A comparative study

The impacts of heat on human health has sparked research on different approaches to measure, map, and predict heat exposure at more accurate and precise spatiotemporal scales. Personal heat sensor studies rely on small sensors that can continuously measure ambient temperatures as individuals move through time and space. The comparison between different types of sensors and sensor placements have yet to be fully researched. The objective of this study is to assess the validity of personal ambient temperature sensors. To accomplish this objective, we evaluated the performance of multiple low-cost wearable sensors (HOBOs, iButton Thermochrons, iButton Hygrochrons, and Kestrel DROP D3FW Fire) for measuring ambient temperature in a (1) field exposure study by varying the placement on human subjects and in a (2) field calibration study by co-locating sensors with fixed site weather station monitors. A secondary aim involved investigating consensus between validation metrics that can be used in future sensor comparison studies. Bland-Altman analysis, correlation coefficients, and index of agreement statistics were used to quantify the difference between sensor and weather station ambient temperature measurements. Results demonstrated significant differences in measured temperatures for sensors based on sensor type and placement on participants. Future research should account for the differences in personal ambient temperature readings based on sensor type and placement.

Characterizing the role of socioeconomic pathways in shaping future urban heat-related challenges

Urban dwellers worldwide are increasingly affected by more frequent and intense extreme temperature events, ongoing urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic conditions. Decades of research have shown that vulnerability is a crucial determinant of heat-related risk and mortality in cities, yet assessments of future urban heat-related challenges have largely overlooked the contribution of changes in socioeconomic conditions to future heat-related risk and mortality. The scenario framework for climate change research, made up of socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs) combined with climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), facilitates the integration of socioeconomic scenarios into climate risks assessments. In this study, we used Greater Houston (Texas) as a case study to implement the scenario framework at the intra-urban scale. Integrating locally extended SSPs along with a range of sectoral modelling approaches, we combined projections of urban extreme heat - which account for SSP-specific urban heat islands - with projections of future population and vulnerability. We then produced estimates of future heat-related risk and mortality for 2041-2060 (2050s) summers at Census tract level, for multiple combinations of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Using a scenario matrix, we showed that the projected ~15,738-24,521 future summer excess mortalities compared to 1991-2010 are essentially driven by population growth and changes in vulnerability, with changes in climatic conditions alone being of little influence. We outline methods to apply the new scenario framework at intra-urban scale and to better characterize the contribution of socioeconomic pathways to future urban climate risks. This socio-climatic approach provides comprehensive estimates of future climate risks in urban areas, which are essential for adaptation planning under climatic and socioeconomic uncertainty.

Modelling the fine-scale spatiotemporal pattern of urban heat island effect using land use regression approach in a megacity

Urban heat island (UHI) effect significantly raises the health burden and building energy consumption in the high-density urban environment of Hong Kong. A better understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern of UHI is essential to health risk assessments and energy consumption management but challenging in a high-density environment due to the sparsely distributed meteorological stations and the highly diverse urban features. In this study, we modelled the spatiotemporal pattern of UHI effect using the land use regression (LUR) approach in geographic information system with meteorological records of the recent 4years (2013-2016), sounding data and geographic predictors in Hong Kong. A total of 224 predictor variables were calculated and involved in model development. As a result, a total of 10 models were developed (daytime and nighttime, four seasons and annual average). As expected, meteorological records (CLD, Spd, MSLP) and sounding indices (KINX, CAPV and SHOW) are temporally correlated with UHI at high significance levels. On the top of the resultant LUR models, the influential spatial predictors of UHI with regression coefficients and their critical buffer width were also identified for the high-density urban scenario of Hong Kong. The study results indicate that the spatial pattern of UHI is largely determined by the LU/LC (RES1500, FVC500) and urban geomorphometry (h¯, BVD, λ¯_F, Ψ_sky and z₀) in a high-density built environment, especially during nighttime. The resultant models could be adopted to enrich the current urban design guideline and help with the UHI mitigation.

Vulnerability to Renal, Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations During Extreme Heat Among U.S. Elderly

BACKGROUND

Extreme heat (EH) is a growing concern with climate change, and protecting human health requires knowledge of vulnerability factors. We evaluated whether associations between EH (maximum temperature > 97th percentile) and hospitalization for renal, heat and respiratory diseases among people ≥ 65 years differed by individual and area-level characteristics.

METHODS

We used Medicare billing records, airport weather data, U.S. Census data and satellite land cover imagery in 109 US cities, May-September, 1992-2006, in a time-stratified case-crossover design. Interaction terms between EH and individual (> 78 years, black race, sex) and home ZIP-code (percentages of non-green space, high school education, housing built before 1940) characteristics were incorporated in a single model. Next, we pooled city-specific effect estimates or regressed them on quartiles of air conditioning prevalence (ACP) in a multivariate random effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

EH and combined renal/heat/respiratory hospitalization associations were stronger among blacks, the very old, in ZIP codes with lower educational attainment or older housing and in cities with lower ACP. For example, for EH versus non-heat days, we found a 15% (95% CI 11%-19%) increase in renal/heat/respiratory hospitalizations among individuals in ZIP codes with higher percent of older homes in contrast to a 9% (95% CI 6%-12%) increase in hospitalizations in ZIP codes with lower percent older homes.

CONCLUSION

Vulnerability to EH-associated hospitalization may be influenced by age, educational attainment, housing age and ACP.

Mortality during a Large-Scale Heat Wave by Place, Demographic Group, Internal and External Causes of Death, and Building Climate Zone

Mortality increases during periods of elevated heat. Identification of vulnerable subgroups by demographics, causes of death, and geographic regions, including deaths occurring at home, is needed to inform public health prevention efforts. We calculated mortality relative risks (RRs) and excess deaths associated with a large-scale California heat wave in 2006, comparing deaths during the heat wave with reference days. For total (all-place) and at-home mortality, we examined risks by demographic factors, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zones. During the heat wave, 582 excess deaths occurred, a 5% increase over expected (RR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.08). Sixty-six percent of excess deaths were at home (RR = 1.12, CI 1.07-1.16). Total mortality risk was higher among those aged 35-44 years than ≥ 65, and among Hispanics than whites. Deaths from external causes increased more sharply (RR = 1.18, CI 1.10-1.27) than from internal causes (RR = 1.04, CI 1.02-1.07). Geographically, risk varied by building climate zone; the highest risks of at-home death occurred in the northernmost coastal zone (RR = 1.58, CI 1.01-2.48) and the southernmost zone of California's Central Valley (RR = 1.43, CI 1.21-1.68). Heat wave mortality risk varied across subpopulations, and some patterns of vulnerability differed from those previously identified. Public health efforts should also address at-home mortality, non-elderly adults, external causes, and at-risk geographic regions.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (T_min) and daily maximum heat index (HI_max) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (T_min) and 7.3°C (HI_max) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (T_min) and 2.5°C (HI_max), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (T_min) and 8.3°C (HI_max), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.

Spatio-temporal behavior of brightness temperature in Tel-Aviv and its application to air temperature monitoring

This study applies remote sensing technology to assess and examine the spatial and temporal Brightness Temperature (BT) profile in the city of Tel-Aviv, Israel over the last 30 years using Landsat imagery. The location of warmest and coldest zones are constant over the studied period. Distinct diurnal and temporal BT behavior divide the city into four different segments. As an example of future application, we applied mixed regression models with daily random slopes to correlate Landsat BT data with monitored air temperature (Tair) measurements using 14 images for 1989-2014. Our preliminary results show a good model performance with R(2) = 0.81. Furthermore, based on the model's results, we analyzed the spatial profile of Tair within the study domain for representative days.

Investigating changes in land use cover and associated environmental parameters in Taihu Lake in recent decades using remote sensing and geochemistry

Humans have had a significant impact on the terrestrial pedosphere through activities such as agriculture and urbanization. The effects of human activities on land use and the related environmental changes were investigated through point and areal studies surrounding Meiliang Bay, which is an open area of extreme eutrophication in Taihu Lake, China. This study used remote sensing and environmental-tracer profiles [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), grain size, and geochemical parameters] to determine the causes of changes in land use and the associated environmental parameters. The results of LUCCs (Land use/cover changes) indicate that over the past three decades, total farmland decreased by 862.49 km2, with an annual decrement rate of 28.75 km2/year, and total urbanized land increased by 859.71 km2, with an annual growth rate of 28.66 km2/year. The geochemical results indicate that the trophic state of Taihu Lake was persistently intensifying and that the TN, TP, and TOC concentrations increased twofold, threefold, and twofold, respectively, from 1949 to 2010. The sources of TN, TP, and TOC were highly similar after 1975. However, before 1974, TN and TP originated from different sources than TOC. The grassland and woodland around the lake retain nutrients and sand from the land of study area. The increase in urbanized land and tertiary industries significantly increased the sediment concentrations of TN, TP, and TOC after 1980.

Impact of the 2011 heat wave on mortality and emergency department visits in Houston, Texas

BACKGROUND

Heat waves have been linked to increased risk of mortality and morbidity, and are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in a changing climate. Houston and other areas in Texas experienced an exceptional heat wave in the summer of 2011 producing the hottest August on record. This study aims to assess the health-related impact of this heat wave.

METHODS

Distributed lag models were used to estimate associations between the 2011 heat wave and all-cause mortality and emergency department (ED) visits from May 1 through September 30 for the five-year period 2007-2011. The 2011 heat wave is defined as a continuous period from August 2 through 30, 2011 according to the heat advisories issued by the local National Weather Service office, and is included in the models as a dummy variable. We compared the estimated excess risk among the models with and without adjustment of continuous temperature and ozone.

RESULTS

The 2011 heat wave in Houston was associated with a 3.6% excess risk in ED visits (95% CI: 0.6%, 6.6%) and 0.6% increase in mortality risk (95% CI: -5.5%, 7.1%). The elderly over 65 years of age were at the greatest risk in ED visits. These patterns are consistent across different heat-wave definitions, and results are similar when adjusting for continuous temperature and ozone.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2011 heat wave in Houston had a substantial impact on ED visits and no significant impact on mortality. Our findings provide insights into local heat-wave and health preparations and interventions.