Modelling the impact of co-circulating low pathogenic avian influenza viruses on epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry

Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

Age is a determinant factor in the susceptibility of domestic ducks to H5 clade 2.3.2.1c and 2.3.4.4e high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral disease with devastating consequences for the poultry industry worldwide. Domestic ducks are a major source of HPAI viruses in many Eurasian countries. The infectivity and pathogenicity of HPAI viruses in ducks vary depending on host and viral factors. To assess the factors influencing the infectivity and pathogenicity of HPAI viruses in ducks, we compared the pathobiology of two HPAI viruses (H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1c and H5N6 clade 2.3.4.4e) in 5- and 25-week-old ducks. Both HPAI viruses caused mortality in a dose-dependent manner (104, 106, and 108 EID50) in young ducks. By contrast, adult ducks were infected but exhibited no mortality due to either virus. Viral excretion was higher in young ducks than in adults, regardless of the HPAI strain. These findings demonstrate the age-dependent mortality of clade 2.3.2.1c and clade 2.3.4.4e H5 HPAI viruses in ducks.

Integration of Epidemiological and Genomic Data to Investigate H5N1 HPAI Outbreaks in Northern Italy in 2021-2022

Between October 2021 and April 2022, 317 outbreaks caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses were notified in poultry farms in the northeastern Italian regions. The complete genomes of 214 strains were used to estimate the genetic network based on the similarity of the viruses. An exponential random graph model (ERGM) was used to assess the effect of 'at-risk contacts', 'same owners', 'in-bound/out-bound risk windows overlap', 'genetic differences', 'geographic distances', 'same species', and 'poultry company' on the probability of observing a link within the genetic network, which can be interpreted as the potential propagation of the epidemic via lateral spread or a common source of infection. The variables 'same poultry company' (Est. = 0.548, C.I. = [0.179; 0.918]) and 'risk windows overlap' (Est. = 0.339, C.I. = [0.309; 0.368]) were associated with a higher probability of link formation, while the 'genetic differences' (Est. = -0.563, C.I. = [-0.640; -0.486]) and 'geographic distances' (Est. = -0.058, C.I. = [-0.078; -0.038]) indicated a reduced probability. The integration of epidemiological data with genomic analyses allows us to monitor the epidemic evolution and helps to explain the dynamics of lateral spreads casting light on the potential diffusion routes. The 2021-2022 epidemic stresses the need to further strengthen the biosecurity measures, and to encourage the reorganization of the poultry production sector to minimize the impact of future epidemics.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses at the Wild-Domestic Bird Interface in Europe: Future Directions for Research and Surveillance

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in wild birds and poultry are no longer a rare phenomenon in Europe. In the past 15 years, HPAI outbreaks—in particular those caused by H5 viruses derived from the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage that emerged in southeast Asia in 1996—have been occuring with increasing frequency in Europe. Between 2005 and 2020, at least ten HPAI H5 incursions were identified in Europe resulting in mass mortalities among poultry and wild birds. Until 2009, the HPAI H5 virus outbreaks in Europe were caused by HPAI H5N1 clade 2.2 viruses, while from 2014 onwards HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses dominated outbreaks, with abundant genetic reassortments yielding subtypes H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N4, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8. The majority of HPAI H5 virus detections in wild and domestic birds within Europe coincide with southwest/westward fall migration and large local waterbird aggregations during wintering. In this review we provide an overview of HPAI H5 virus epidemiology, ecology and evolution at the interface between poultry and wild birds based on 15 years of avian influenza virus surveillance in Europe, and assess future directions for HPAI virus research and surveillance, including the integration of whole genome sequencing, host identification and avian ecology into risk-based surveillance and analyses.

Modeling a stochastic avian influenza model under regime switching and with human-to-human transmission

In this paper, we investigate the stochastic avian influenza model with human-to-human transmission, which is disturbed by both white and telegraph noises. First, we show that the solution of the stochastic system is positive and global. Furthermore, by using stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution. Then we obtain the conditions for extinction. Finally, numerical simulations are employed to demonstrate the analytical results.

Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks

The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.

Knowledge and remaining gaps on the role of animal and human movements in the poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of avian influenza viruses - A scoping review

Poultry production has significantly increased worldwide, along with the number of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks and the potential threat for human pandemic emergence. The role of wild bird movements in this global spread has been extensively studied while the role of animal, human and fomite movement within commercial poultry production and trade networks remains poorly understood. The aim of this work is to better understand these roles in relation to the different routes of AI spread. A scoping literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) using a search algorithm combining twelve domains linked to AI spread and animal/human movements within poultry production and trade networks. Only 28 out of 3,978 articles retrieved dealt especially with the role of animal, human and fomite movements in AI spread within the international trade network (4 articles), the national trade network (8 articles) and the production network (16 articles). While the role of animal movements in AI spread within national trade networks has been largely identified, human and fomite movements have been considered more at risk for AI spread within national production networks. However, the role of these movements has never been demonstrated with field data, and production networks have only been partially studied and never at international level. The complexity of poultry production networks and the limited access to production and trade data are important barriers to this knowledge. There is a need to study the role of animal and human movements within poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of AI in partnership with both public and private actors to fill this gap.

A review of knowledge discovery process in control and mitigation of avian influenza

In the last several decades, avian influenza virus has caused numerous outbreaks around the world. These outbreaks pose a significant threat to the poultry industry and also to public health. When an avian influenza (AI) outbreak occurs, it is critical to make informed decisions about the potential risks, impact, and control measures. To this end, many modeling approaches have been proposed to acquire knowledge from different sources of data and perspectives to enhance decision making. Although some of these approaches have shown to be effective, they do not follow the process of knowledge discovery in databases (KDD). KDD is an iterative process, consisting of five steps, that aims at extracting unknown and useful information from the data. The present review attempts to survey AI modeling methods in the context of KDD process. We first divide the modeling techniques used in AI into two main categories: data-intensive modeling and small-data modeling. We then investigate the existing gaps in the literature and suggest several potential directions and techniques for future studies. Overall, this review provides insights into the control of AI in terms of the risk of introduction and spread of the virus.

Modelling the impact of biosecurity practices on the risk of high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Australian commercial chicken farms

As of 2018, Australia has experienced seven outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry since 1976, all of which involved chickens. There is concern that increases in free-range farming could heighten HPAI outbreak risk due to the potential for greater contact between chickens and wild birds that are known to carry low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI). We use mathematical models to assess the effect of a shift to free-range farming on the risk of HPAI outbreaks of H5 or H7 in the Australian commercial chicken industry, and the potential for intervention strategies to reduce this risk. We find that a shift of 25% of conventional indoor farms to free-range farming practices would result in a 6-7% increase in the risk of a HPAI outbreak. Current practices to treat water are highly effective, reducing the risk of outbreaks by 25-28% compared to no water treatment. Halving wild bird presence in feed storage areas could reduce risk by 16-19% while halving wild bird access of potential bridge-species to sheds could reduce outbreak risk by 23-25%, and relatively small improvements in biosecurity measures could entirely compensate for increased risks due to the increasing proportion of free-range farms in the industry. The short production cycle and cleaning practices for chicken meat sheds considerably reduce the risk that an introduced low pathogenic avian influenza virus is maintained in the flock until it is detected as HPAI through increased mortality of chickens. These findings help explain HPAI outbreak history in Australia and suggest practical changes in biosecurity practices that could reduce the risk of future outbreaks.

A viral race for primacy: co-infection of a natural pair of low and highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza viruses in chickens and embryonated chicken eggs

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) infection in poultry caused devastating mortality and economic losses. HPAIV of subtypes H5 and H7 emerge from precursor viruses of low pathogenicity (LP) by spontaneous mutation associated with a shift in the susceptibility of the endoproteolytic cleavage site of the viral hemagglutinin protein from trypsin- to furin-like proteases. A recently described natural pair of LP/HP H7N7 viruses derived from two spatio-temporally linked outbreaks in layer chickens was used to study how a minority of mutated HP virions after de novo generation in a single host might gain primacy. Co-infection experiments in embryonated eggs and in chickens were conducted to investigate amplification, spread and transmissionof HPAIV within a poultry population that experiences concurrent infection by an antigenically identical LP precursor virus. Simultaneous LPAIV co-infection (inoculum dose of 106 egg-infectious dose 50% endpoint (EID50)/0.5 mL) withincreasing titers of HPAIV from 101 to 105.7 EID50/0.5 mL) had a significant impeding impact on HP H7 replication, viral excretion kinetics, clinical signs and histopathological lesions (in vivo) and on embryo mortality (in ovo). LP/HP co-infected chickens required a hundredfold higher virus dose (HPAIV inoculum of 105 EID50) compared to HPAIV mono-infection (HPAIV inoculum of 103 EID50) to develop overt clinical signs, mortality and virus spread to uninfected sentinels. Escape and spread of HP phenotypes after de novo generation in an index host may therefore be highly precarious due to significant competition with co-circulating LP precursor virus.

Similar transmissibility of the Italian H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus and its low pathogenic avian influenza virus predecessor

The transmissibility of the H7N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), which caused a large epidemic in commercial poultry in Italy in 1999-2000, was studied in chickens and compared with that of the low pathogenic precursor virus (LPAIV). Group transmission experiments using the HPAIV were executed to estimate the infectious period (IP), the transmission parameter (β) and the basic reproduction number (R₀). These estimates were then compared with those reported for the LPAIV. The estimated β and R₀ were similar for both viruses, whilst the IP of the LPAIV was longer than that of the HPAIV. These findings indicate that transmissibility from chicken-to-chicken alone does not appear to confer an advantage for this LPAIV to evolve to a HPAIV.