Estimation of age-specific rates of reactivation and immune boosting of the varicella zoster virus

Identifying optimal vaccination scenarios to reduce varicella zoster virus transmission and reactivation

BACKGROUND

Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is one of the eight known human herpesviruses. Initial VZV infection results in chickenpox, while viral reactivation following a period of latency manifests as shingles. Separate vaccines exist to protect against both initial infection and subsequent reactivation. Controversy regarding chickenpox vaccination is contentious with most countries not including the vaccine in their childhood immunization schedule due to the hypothesized negative impact on immune-boosting, where VZV reactivation is suppressed through exogenous boosting of VZV antibodies from exposure to natural chickenpox infections.

METHODS

Population-level chickenpox and shingles notifications from Thailand, a country that does not vaccinate against either disease, were previously fitted with mathematical models to estimate rates of VZV transmission and reactivation. Here, multiple chickenpox and shingles vaccination scenarios were simulated and compared to a model lacking any vaccination to analyze the long-term impacts of VZV vaccination.

RESULTS

As expected, simulations suggested that an introduction of the chickenpox vaccine, at any coverage level, would reduce chickenpox incidence. However, chickenpox vaccine coverage levels above 35% would increase shingles incidence under realistic estimates of shingles coverage with the current length of protective immunity from the vaccine. A trade-off between chickenpox and shingles vaccination coverage was discovered, where mid-level chickenpox coverage levels were identified as the optimal target to minimize total zoster burden. Only in scenarios where shingles vaccine provided lifelong immunity or coverage exceeded current levels could large reductions in both chickenpox and shingles be achieved.

CONCLUSIONS

The complicated nature of VZV makes it impossible to select a single vaccination scenario as universal policy. Strategies focused on reducing both chickenpox and shingles incidence, but prioritizing the latter should maximize efforts towards shingles vaccination, while slowly incorporating chickenpox vaccination. Alternatively, countries may wish to minimize VZV complications of both chickenpox and shingles, which would lead to maximizing vaccine coverage levels across both diseases. Balancing the consequences of vaccination to overall health impacts, including understanding the impact of an altered mean age of infection for both chickenpox and shingles, would need to be considered prior to any vaccine introduction.

Changes in epidemiological characteristics and sero-prevalence against the varicella zoster virus in school-age children after the introduction of a national immunization program in Japan

A national immunization program using two doses of live attenuated varicella vaccine was introduced for children aged one to two years in Japan in October 2014. Varicella cases declined after 2014, and immunological status against varicella among vaccinated children changed in post-vaccination era. A retrospective observational study of anti-varicella antibody seroprevalence, varicella vaccination status, and history of varicella among 528 students in the first grade of elementary school was conducted. The percentage of students who received at least a single dose of varicella vaccination increased from 67% (187 of 279 students) in 2007-2008 to 91% (226 of 249 students) in 2017. Students with a history of varicella decreased from 114 of 279 (41%) in 2007-2008 to 48 of 249 (19%, P < .01) in 2017. Among them, the rate of breakthrough varicella after a single dose of vaccine in students with a history of varicella significantly increased from 38% (43 of 114 students) in 2007-2008 to 58% (28 of 48 students) in 2017 (P < .05). The antibody-positive rate significantly decreased from 50% among subjects without varicella zoster who received a single dose (95%CI: 41-58%) in 2007-2008 to 29% (95%CI: 21-38%) in 2017 (P < .01). The antibody-positive rate among students without varicella history who received two doses of vaccine was only 43% (95%CI: 32-55%) in 2017. The number of varicella infections and antibody-positive rate among students without history of varicella who received varicella vaccination decreased after the introduction of a national immunization program.

Integrating measures of viral prevalence and seroprevalence: a mechanistic modelling approach to explaining cohort patterns of human papillomavirus in women in the USA

Incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) related cancers is increasing, generating substantial interest in understanding how trends in population prevalence of HPV infection are changing. However, there are no direct, population-scale measurements of HPV prevalence prior to 2003. Previous work using models to reconstruct historical trends have focused only on genital infection or seroprevalence (prevalence of antibodies) separately, and the results of these single-measure studies have been hard to reconcile. Here, we develop a mechanistic disease model fit jointly to cervicogential prevalence and seroprevalence in unvaccinated women in the USA using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2003-2010) and compare it to fits of statistical age-cohort models. We find that including a latent HPV state in our model significantly improves model fit and that antibody waning may be an important contributor to observed patterns of seroprevalence. Moreover, we find that the mechanistic model outperforms the statistical model and that the joint analysis prevents the inconsistencies that arise when estimating historical cohort trends in infection from genital prevalence and seroprevalence separately. Our analysis suggests that while there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimation of historic HPV trends, there has likely been an increase in the force of infection for more recent birth cohorts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Silent cancer agents: multi-disciplinary modelling of human DNA oncoviruses'.

Evaluation of impact of one dose varicella vaccine on the incidence of chickenpox in Argentina

INTRODUCTION

Varicella, also known as chickenpox is one of the most common immunizable diseases. In 1998, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended to incorporate this vaccine in the national immunization programs, which Argentina did in 2015.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the behavior of the varicella time series for the 2005-2017 period, and to evaluate the impact of the vaccine in Argentina.

METHODOLOGY

An ecological observational study was performed, using the varicella cases reported in the National Health Monitoring System, and the data of the National census as secondary data sources. A model based time series analysis of the notified varicella cases in Argentina was performed, using a Negative Binomial Mixed Model. For the verification of the vaccine impact, the 2005-2014 period was selected, and a prognosis for the following years was performed. Impact was evaluated by comparing the rates and confidence intervals between the predicted and observed values.

RESULTS

Argentina reported 1,775,587 varicella cases for the 2005-2017 period. The series exhibited seasonality, and, a decreasing trend in the number of cases was observed in 2016 and 2017. A reduction of the incidence rate after the implementation of the vaccine was observed. The transmission risk decreased in the country after vaccine implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first concrete evidence of the varicella incidence decline after the implementation of a single dose application program in Argentina.

Sacral (S1) herpes zoster

Herpes zoster usually affects the thoracic and lumbar vertebra (T3-L3), while sacral herpes zoster has been very rarely reported. We present a very rare case of herpes zoster involving S1 dermatome in a 35-year-old healthy man who presented aching pain and typical herpes zoster eruption on the lateral aspect of the calcaneus, lateral plantar area and dorsal aspect of digits III and IV.

Trends in varicella and herpes zoster epidemiology before and after the implementation of universal one-dose varicella vaccination over one decade in South Korea, 2003-2015

Background: In South Korea, the one-dose varicella vaccine was included in the National Immunization Program for children aged 12-15 months in 2005, and the vaccine coverage reached >95%. The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) was investigated, accounting for demographic changes over time.Methods: We calculated the crude and age-sex standardized incidence rates (IRs) and age-specific IRs of varicella and HZ from 2003 to 2015, using the National Health Information Database including approximately 50 million Koreans. The annual incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated using a negative binomial regression analysis, adjusting for age and sex.Results: The crude varicella IR steadily declined by 67%, from 5.70/1000 to 1.87/1000 person years (IRR per year: 0.91; 95% CI 0.89-0.93), but the adjusted IRs showed a significant decline only during 2010-2015 (adjusted IRR per year: 0.90; 95% CI 0.88-0.93). The greatest decline was found in children ≤4 years of age, whereas the IR increased until 2011 and then declined afterward in children aged 5-9 years, who represented the highest incidence age group in 2013-2015. The crude HZ IR increased from 2.67/1000 to 9.80/1000 person years (IRR per year: 1.12; 95% CI 1.10-1.15), and the adjusted IR also followed the same trend. A similar increasing trend was observed before and after universal vaccination.Conclusions: One-dose varicella vaccination was moderately effective in preventing varicella, but this strategy was insufficient to interrupt varicella transmission in children. Furthermore, the HZ incidence dramatically increased over this decade. The current vaccination strategy against varicella-zoster disease should be reconsidered.

The impact of childhood varicella vaccination on the incidence of herpes zoster in the general population: modelling the effect of exogenous and endogenous varicella-zoster virus immunity boosting

Background

A controversy exists about the potential effect of childhood varicella vaccination on Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence. Mathematical models projected temporary HZ incidence increase after vaccine introduction that was not confirmed by real-world evidence. These models assume that absence of contacts with infected children would prevent exogenous boosting of Varicella-Zoster-Virus (VZV) immunity and they do not include an endogenous VZV immunity-boosting mechanism following asymptomatic VZV reactivation. This study aims to explore the effect of various assumptions on exogenous and endogenous VZV immunity-boosting on HZ incidence in the general population after introduction of routine childhood varicella vaccination.

Methods

An age-structured dynamic transmission model was adapted and fitted to the seroprevalence of varicella in France in absence of vaccination using the empirical contact matrix. A two-dose childhood varicella vaccination schedule was introduced at 12 and 18 months. Vaccine efficacy was assumed at 65%/95% (dose 1/dose 2), and coverage at 90%/80% (dose 1/dose 2). Exogenous boosting intensity was based on assumptions regarding HZ-immunity duration, age-dependent boosting effect, and HZ reactivation rates fitted to observed HZ incidence. Endogenous boosting was the same as pre-vaccination exogenous boosting but constant over time, whilst exogenous boosting depended on the force of infection. Five scenarios were tested with different weightings of exogenous (Exo) - endogenous (Endo) boosting: 100%Exo–0%Endo, 75%Exo–25%Endo, 50%Exo–50%Endo, 25%Exo–75%Endo, 0%Exo–100%Endo.

Results

HZ incidence before varicella vaccination, all ages combined, was estimated at 3.96 per 1000 person-years; it decreased by 64% by year 80 post vaccine introduction, for all boosting assumptions. The 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting scenario, predicted an increase in HZ incidence for the first 21 years post vaccine introduction with a maximum increase of 3.7% (4.1/1000) at year 9. However, with 0%Exo-100%Endo boosting scenario an immediate HZ decline was projected. The maximum HZ incidence increases at 10, 3, and 2 years post vaccination were 1.8% (75%Exo-25%Endo), 0.8% (50%Exo-50%Endo) and 0.2% (25%Exo-75%Endo), respectively.

Conclusions

Assuming modest levels of endogenous boosting, the increase in HZ incidence following childhood varicella vaccination was smaller and lasted for a shorter period compared with 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting assumption. Endogenous boosting mechanism could partly explain the divergence between previous HZ-incidence projections and real-world evidence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3759-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cross-sectional study on hospitalizations related to herpes zoster in an Italian region, 2008-2016

INTRODUCTION

To assess the burden of herpes zoster (HZ) by analyzing HZ-related hospital admissions.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based descriptive cross-sectional study on all hospitalizations for HZ among the resident population admitted to all public and accredited private hospitals in the Veneto Region (north-east Italy) during the years 2008-2016. HZ hospitalizations were identified from the International Classification of Diseases codes in the hospital discharge records.

RESULTS

During the period considered, we identified 3566 HZ-associated admissions, 194 (5.4%) of which were readmissions within 30 days. A complicated HZ diagnosis was mentioned for 44.4% of the patients admitted once and for 65.9% of those admitted twice. In the sample as a whole, 27.0% of patients had at least one comorbidity. Overall, our analysis revealed a gradual increase in hospitalizations with age for both genders, reaching a hospitalization rate for the population over 80 years old of 51.2 × 100,000 for males and 52.8 × 100,000 for females. The average hospitalization rate for HZ-related conditions during the years 2008-2016 was 7.7 per 100,000 population. Postherpetic neuralgia was diagnosed in 8.2% of hospitalizations, with no difference between the genders. The estimated overall cost of HZ-related conditions was approximately €2.7 million a year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the burden of HZ and its impact on quality of life are of critical relevance to public health decision-making.

Varicella zoster presenting as cranial polyneuropathy

Cranial polyneuropathy is commonly caused by Lyme disease. We discuss the case of a man who presented with cranial nerve deficits causing dysphagia, dysphonia and facial weakness. This diagnostic dilemma stemmed from a workup that ruled out Lyme and vascular causes leading to an expanded search for infectious explanations, which revealed varicella zoster in the cerebrospinal fluid. On review, this phenomenon is rarely reported, but has been observed with a number of herpes family viruses. In emergency department settings, clinical suspicion should be raised for VZV infection even in the absence of rash in patients that present with multiple cranial nerve palsies.

Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination

INTRODUCTION

The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Historically, mathematical models of the impact of universal childhood varicella vaccination (UVV) have used limited data to capture EB and often conclude that UVV will temporarily increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence.

AREAS COVERED

We updated a 2013 systematic literature review of 40 studies to summarize new evidence from observational or modeling studies related to EB and its parameterization. We abstracted data on observational study designs and mathematical model structures, EB frameworks, and HZ-related parameter values.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

This review identified an additional 41 studies: 22 observational and 19 modeling studies. Observational analyses generally reported pre-UVV increases in HZ incidence, making it difficult to attribute post-UVV increases to UVV versus other causes. Modeling studies considered a range of EB frameworks, from no boosting to full permanent immunity. Mathematical modeling efforts are needed in countries with long-standing vaccination programs to capture the dynamics of VZV transmission and temporal changes that may affect HZ incidence. Use of real-world pre-/postvaccination data on varicella and HZ incidence to validate model predictions may improve approaches to EB parameterization and understanding of the effects of varicella vaccination programs.

Non-specific effects of vaccinations in high-income settings: How to address the issue?

“Non-specific effects” of vaccines go beyond the specific protective effects against the targeted diseases. They, if real, could theoretically be beneficial, neutral or negative.

This article intends to answer the following questions:

Do the non-specific effects of vaccines exist? Almost certainly yes, and they can be important in low-income countries

Are non-specific effects also present in high-income countries? At least to some extent, it seems quite logical

Can non-specific effects be systematically identified by the current systems of side effects/unintended reactions monitoring? Most likely not

Could the Institute of Medicine proposals and some ongoing attempts solve the issue? It seems unlikely

Could there be better, feasible and ethically acceptable ways to achieve the aforementioned objective?

A proposal is presented about this issue, with the potential both to solve the problem with the most valid methods, and to overcome the ethical problems that have so far precluded the adoption of RCTs to study possible vaccine non-specific effects, monitored by long follow-up.

The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster

We use age-structured models for VZV transmission and reactivation to reconstruct the natural history of VZV in Norway based on available pre-vaccination serological data, contact matrices, and herpes zoster incidence data. Depending on the hypotheses on contact and transmission patterns, the basic reproduction number of varicella in Norway ranges between 3.7 and 5.0, implying a vaccine coverage between 73 and 80% to effectively interrupt transmission with a 100% vaccine efficacy against infection. The varicella force of infection peaks during early childhood (3–5 yrs) and shows a prolonged phase of higher risk during the childbearing period, though quantitative variations can occur depending on contact patterns. By expressing the magnitude of exogenous boosting as a proportion of the force of infection, it is shown that reactivation is well described by a progressive immunity mechanism sustained by a large, though possibly below 100%, degree of exogenous boosting, in agreement with findings from other Nordic countries, implying large reproduction numbers of boosting. Moreover, magnitudes of exogenous boosting below 40% are robustly disconfirmed by data. These results bring further insight on the magnitude of immunity boosting and its relationship with reactivation.