Routine varicella vaccination program and hospitalization for herpes zoster in Japan

Whether reducing exposure to varicella by the implementation of the routine varicella vaccination program for children leads to increased incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) remains controversial. The aim of the present study was to identify the trend in the hospitalization associated with HZ before and after the introduction of routine varicella vaccination by using nationally representative data from an inpatient database in Japan. Data were obtained on the number of inpatients hospitalized for HZ from the "Survey on the effect of the introduction of Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) database" and the total population in Japan from the Population Estimates created by the former Statistics Bureau between fiscal years 2013 and 2018. The data from the DPC hospitals only and all hospitals in the survey were analyzed separately. The trends in the annual incidence of HZ hospitalization were identified. The trends in the annual hospitalization for HZ per 100,000 persons were then analyzed by age group (0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-79, and ≥80 years of age). The annual number of hospitalizations for HZ was approximately 20,000 in the DPC hospitals and 25,000 in all hospitals, showing no upward trend. The age-specific annual hospitalization rate for HZ did not increase in all the age groups. As age increased, the hospitalization rate also increased. This study presents no upward trend in the hospitalizations for HZ after the implementation of the routine varicella vaccination program in Japan.

The Impact of Varicella Vaccination on the Incidence of Varicella and Herpes Zoster in the United States: Updated Evidence From Observational Databases, 1991-2016

BACKGROUND

Universal childhood vaccination against varicella began in the United States as a 1-dose schedule in 1996, changing to a 2-dose schedule in 2006. The exogenous boosting hypothesis, which postulates that reexposure to circulating wild-type varicella delays the onset of herpes zoster, predicts a transient increase in the incidence of herpes zoster, peaking in adults 15-35 years after the start of varicella vaccination.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of administrative claims data from the MarketScan Commercial and Medicare databases between 1991-2016. Outcome measures were the incidences of herpes zoster per 100 000 person-years, by calendar year and age category, and the annual rates of change in herpes zoster by age category, in an interrupted time series regression analysis, for the periods of 1991-1995 (prevaccine), 1996-2006 (1-dose vaccination period), and 2007-2016 (2-dose vaccination period).

RESULTS

The annual incidences of herpes zoster increased throughout the period of 1991-2012 in all adult age categories, with a plateau in 2013-2016 that was most evident in the ≥65 age group. In 1991-1995, the herpes zoster incidences increased at annual rates of 4-6% in age categories 18-34, 35-44, 45-54, and 55-64 years. In the same age categories during 1996-2006 and 2007-2016, the herpes zoster incidences increased at annual rates of 1-5%.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the annual incidence of herpes zoster in adults has continued to increase, the rates of change decreased during both the 1- and 2-dose vaccination periods. The hypothesized increase in herpes zoster predicted from modelling of the exogenous boosting hypothesis was not observed.

Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination

INTRODUCTION

The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Historically, mathematical models of the impact of universal childhood varicella vaccination (UVV) have used limited data to capture EB and often conclude that UVV will temporarily increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence.

AREAS COVERED

We updated a 2013 systematic literature review of 40 studies to summarize new evidence from observational or modeling studies related to EB and its parameterization. We abstracted data on observational study designs and mathematical model structures, EB frameworks, and HZ-related parameter values.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

This review identified an additional 41 studies: 22 observational and 19 modeling studies. Observational analyses generally reported pre-UVV increases in HZ incidence, making it difficult to attribute post-UVV increases to UVV versus other causes. Modeling studies considered a range of EB frameworks, from no boosting to full permanent immunity. Mathematical modeling efforts are needed in countries with long-standing vaccination programs to capture the dynamics of VZV transmission and temporal changes that may affect HZ incidence. Use of real-world pre-/postvaccination data on varicella and HZ incidence to validate model predictions may improve approaches to EB parameterization and understanding of the effects of varicella vaccination programs.

Post-herpetic neuralgia - a review of current management and future directions

Post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) is common and treatment is often suboptimal with less than half of patients achieving adequate 50% pain relief. As an area of unmet clinical need and as an archetype of neuropathic pain, it deserves the attention of clinicians and researchers. Areas covered: This review summarises the epidemiology, pathophysiology, risk factors and clinical features of varicella infection. It describes the current and possible future management strategies for preventing varicella infection and reactivation and for treating PHN. Expert opinion: A highly successful Varicella Zoster (VZV) vaccine has not been universally adopted due to fears that it may increase Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence - and thus PHN - in older, unvaccinated generations. This is a controversial theory but advances in the efficacy of vaccines against HZ may allay these fears and encourage more widespread adoption of the VZV vaccine. Treatment of PHN, as for any neuropathic pain, must be multidisciplinary and multimodal. Advances in sensory phenotyping technology and genomics may allow more individualised treatment. Traditional research methodologies are ill-suited to assess the kind of complex interventions that are necessary to achieve better clinical outcomes in this challenging field.

The Epidemiology of Herpes Zoster After Varicella Immunization Under Different Biological Hypotheses: Perspectives From Mathematical Modeling

The impact of varicella vaccination on the epidemiology of herpes zoster (HZ) critically depends on the mechanism of immunological boosting, through which reexposures to varicella-zoster virus are thought to reduce the individual risk of HZ development. However, the qualitative and quantitative dynamics of this process are largely unknown. Consequently, mathematical models evaluating immunization strategies need to rely on theoretical assumptions. Available varicella-zoster virus models can be classified in 3 main families according to the postulated effect of exogenous boosting: 1) progressive accumulation of immunity following repeated reexposures; 2) partial protection that wanes over time; or 3) full but temporary immunity against HZ. In this work, we review and compare quantitative predictions from the 3 modeling approaches regarding the effect of varicella immunization on HZ. All models predict a qualitatively similar, but quantitatively heterogeneous, transient increase of HZ incidence. In particular, novel estimates from the progressive immunity model predict the largest increase in natural HZ and the largest incidence of HZ cases from reactivation of the vaccine strain, which in the long term will likely outnumber prevaccination numbers. Our results reinforce the idea that a better understanding of HZ pathogenesis is required before further mass varicella immunization programs are set out.

Vaccination to prevent varicella: Goldman and King's response to Myers' interpretation of Varicella Active Surveillance Project data

BACKGROUND

There is increasing evidence that herpes zoster (HZ) incidence rates among children and adults (aged <60 years) with a history of natural varicella are influenced primarily by the frequency of exogenous exposures, while asymptomatic endogenous reactivations help to cap the rate at approximately 550 cases/100,000 person-years when exogenous boosting becomes rare. The Antelope Valley Varicella Active Surveillance Project was funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 1995 to monitor the effects of varicella vaccination in one of the three representative regions of the United States. The stability in the data collection and number of reporting sites under varicella surveillance from 1995-2002 and HZ surveillance during 2000-2001 and 2006-2007 contributed to the robustness of the discerned trends.

DISCUSSION

Varicella vaccination may be useful for leukemic children; however, the target population in the United States is all children. Since the varicella vaccine inoculates its recipients with live, attenuated varicella-zoster virus (VZV), clinical varicella cases have dramatically declined. Declining exogenous exposures (boosts) from children shedding natural VZV have caused waning cell-mediated immunity. Thus, the protection provided by varicella vaccination is neither lifelong nor complete. Moreover, dramatic increases in the incidence of adult shingles cases have been observed since HZ was added to the surveillance in 2000. In 2013, this topic is still debated and remains controversial in the United States.

SUMMARY

When the costs of the booster dose for varicella and the increased shingles recurrences are included, the universal varicella vaccination program is neither effective nor cost-effective.