Comparison and validation of two mathematical models for the impact of mass drug administration on Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection

A Comparison of Markov and Mechanistic Models for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Prevalence Projections in the Context of Survey Design

Globally, there are over 1 billion people infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), mostly living in marginalized settings with inadequate sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization recommends an integrated approach to STH morbidity control through improved access to sanitation and hygiene education and the delivery of preventive chemotherapy (PC) to school-age children delivered through schools. Progress of STH control programs is currently estimated using a baseline (pre-PC) school-based prevalence survey and then monitored using periodical school-based prevalence surveys, known as Impact Assessment Surveys (IAS). We investigated whether integrating geostatistical methods with a Markov model or a mechanistic transmission model for projecting prevalence forward in time from baseline can improve IAS design strategies. To do this, we applied these 2 methods to prevalence data collected in Kenya, before evaluating and comparing their performance in accurately informing optimal survey design for a range of IAS sampling designs. We found that, although both approaches performed well, the mechanistic method more accurately projected prevalence over time and provided more accurate information for guiding survey design. Both methods performed less well in areas with persistent STH hotspots where prevalence did not decrease despite multiple rounds of PC. Our findings show that these methods can be useful tools for more efficient and accurate targeting of PC. The general framework built in this paper can also be used for projecting prevalence and informing survey design for other neglected tropical diseases.

Predicting the risk and speed of drug resistance emerging in soil-transmitted helminths during preventive chemotherapy

Control of soil-transmitted helminths relies heavily on regular large-scale deworming of high-risk groups (e.g., children) with benzimidazole derivatives. Although drug resistance has not yet been documented in human soil-transmitted helminths, regular deworming of cattle and sheep has led to widespread benzimidazole resistance in veterinary helminths. Here we predict the population dynamics of human soil-transmitted helminth infections and drug resistance during 20 years of regular preventive chemotherapy, using an individual-based model. With the current preventive chemotherapy strategy of mainly targeting children in schools, drug resistance may evolve in soil-transmitted helminths within a decade. More intense preventive chemotherapy strategies increase the prospects of soil-transmitted helminths elimination, but also increase the speed at which drug efficacy declines, especially when implementing community-based preventive chemotherapy (population-wide deworming). If during the last decade, preventive chemotherapy against soil-transmitted helminths has led to resistance, we may not have detected it as drug efficacy has not been structurally monitored, or incorrectly so. These findings highlight the need to develop and implement strategies to monitor and mitigate the evolution of benzimidazole resistance.

Community-wide mass drug administration for soil-transmitted helminths – risk of drug resistance and mitigation strategies

Mass drug administration programs for the control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in humans most commonly utilize a single class of drugs; the benzimidazoles. Most such programs focus on the treatment of pre-school and school aged children attending schools, although there is increasing interest in the potential utility of community-wide MDA to reduce infection intensity within communities and possibly to interrupt STH transmission. In animals, mass treatment with benzimidazoles leads to the rapid selection of parasites containing resistance-encoding single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and the potential emergence of resistance in parasite species that infect humans is of major potential public health concern. As programs scale up delivery of anthelmintics and consider expanding treated populations, monitoring of drug efficacy and the potential emergence of anthelmintic resistance with sensitive diagnostic tools is critical to ensure the continued success of STH control programs. In particular, as programs consider the adoption of community-wide deworming, there is concern that such a strategy may increase the risk of drug resistance by limiting the number of untreated individuals which serve as a refugia of unexposed worm populations. We review the literature for evidence of drug resistance in human STH infections and explore risks and mitigation strategies for emergence of drug resistance in the context of community-wide deworming.

Fasciola spp. in Southeast Asia: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

BACKGROUND

Fascioliasis is an emerging public health threat in a number of regions worldwide, including Southeast Asia. Up to now, a summary of current knowledge on the occurrence and the distribution in Southeast Asia is lacking. We therefore aim to gather recent information on the distribution and prevalence of and the associated risk factors for Fasciola spp. infections in humans, animals, and plant carriers in Southeast Asia.

METHODS

Bibliographic and gray literature databases as well as reference lists of important review articles will be searched for relevant records that are published between January 1, 2000, and the search date. The systematic review will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for reporting systematic reviews. The primary outcomes will be both the prevalence of Fasciola spp. in the human and animal hosts, and on plant carriers in Southeast Asia, and the risk factors for occurrence of Fasciola spp. Secondary outcomes are the prevalence of Fasciola spp. in subpopulations (e.g., children and patients visiting clinics), the mapping of different diagnostic tests used, and the occurrence of the different Fasciola spp. in the study region. A descriptive statistical analysis will be conducted, and a meta-analysis will be run to estimate the prevalence of human and animal fascioliasis respectively, in Southeast Asia.

DISCUSSION

This systematic review will summarize the current knowledge on the epidemiology of Fasciola spp. infections in Southeast Asia.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This systematic review has been registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), reference number: CRD42021261104 .

Impact of Key Assumptions About the Population Biology of Soil-Transmitted Helminths on the Sustainable Control of Morbidity

The design and evaluation of control programs for soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) is based on surveillance data recording measurements of egg counts in the stool of infected individuals, which underpin estimates of the prevalence and average intensity of infection. There is considerable uncertainty around these measurements and their interpretation. The uncertainty is composed of several sources of measurement error and the limit of detection of fecal smear tests on the one hand, and key assumptions on STH biology on the other hand, including assumptions on the aggregation of worms within hosts and on the impact of density-dependent influences on worm reproduction. Using 2 independently developed models of STH transmission we show how different aspects of STH biology and human behavior impact on STH surveillance and control programs and how accounting for uncertainty can help to develop optimal and sustainable control strategies to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) morbidity target for STHs.

Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection?

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention, the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and WRA during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost and can be implemented even by the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA.

RESULTS

Annual deworming treatment of adolescent girls reduces the prevalence of moderate- and heavy-intensity infections in this age group by up to 60% in moderate transmission settings and by 12-27% in high transmission settings. Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small (< 20%) but significant effect on morbidity although it does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target (< 2% moderate- to high-intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population-based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated.

CONCLUSION

While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths

Background

On 1 April 2020, the WHO recommended an interruption of all activities for the control of neglected tropical diseases, including soil-transmitted helminths (STH), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of this disruption on the progress towards the WHO 2030 target for STH.

Methods

We used two stochastic individual-based models to simulate the impact of missing one or more preventive chemotherapy (PC) rounds in different endemicity settings. We also investigated the extent to which this impact can be lessened by mitigation strategies, such as semiannual or community-wide PC.

Results

Both models show that without a mitigation strategy, control programmes will catch up by 2030, assuming that coverage is maintained. The catch-up time can be up to 4.5 y after the start of the interruption. Mitigation strategies may reduce this time by up to 2 y and increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target.

Conclusions

Although a PC interruption will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programmes are encouraged to restart as soon as possible to minimise the impact on morbidity. The implementation of suitable mitigation strategies can turn the interruption into an opportunity to accelerate progress towards reaching the target.

Impact of Different Sampling Schemes for Decision Making in Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis Control Programs

Starting and stopping preventive chemotherapy (PC) for soil-transmitted helminthiasis is typically based on the prevalence of infection as measured by Kato-Katz (KK) fecal smears. Kato-Katz-based egg counts can vary highly over repeated stool samples and smears. Consequentially, the sensitivity of KK-based surveys depends on the number of stool samples per person and the number of smears per sample. Given finite resources, collecting multiple samples and/or smears means screening fewer individuals, thereby lowering the statistical precision of prevalence estimates. Using population-level data from various epidemiological settings, we assessed the performance of different sampling schemes executed within the confines of the same budget. We recommend the use of single-slide KK for determining prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection and policy decisions for starting and continuing PC; more sensitive sampling schemes may be required for policy decisions involving stopping PC. Our findings highlight that guidelines should include specific guidance on sampling schemes.

Considerations for anthelmintic resistance emergence in hookworm at a single locus

Over 800 million people are infected with hookworms around the world. Hookworms of the genus Ancylostoma and Necator are examples of nematodes that harbor the ability to enter a host by penetrating the skin, and after entry the infective larvae migrate to the small intestine where they encounter host-specific signals that initiate developmental pathways and culminate in maturation to the adult stage. Currently no vaccine is available for the treatment of hookworm infection. The control strategy is limited to anthelmintic drugs, which run the risk of losing efficacy as resistance grows. Genetic resistance has developed against all classes of anthelmintic drugs against livestock parasites, and recently markers of anthelmintic resistance in human hookworm populations have been reported. As anthelmintic resistance develops in human populations of hookworm, new drugs and novel control methods like vaccines will be required in the future to control hookworm transmission. This review outlines how population genetics and anthelmintic resistance could interact at a single locus to influence current control strategies.

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This review outlines how population genetics and anthelmintic resistance may interact to influence current control strategies.

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Altering mutation rate modifies rate of emergence of anthelmintic resistance.

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Genotypic fitness changes the efficacy of anthelmintic administration.

Impact of annual and semi-annual mass drug administration for Lymphatic Filariasis and Onchocerciasis on Hookworm Infection in Côte d'Ivoire

Mass Drug Administration (MDA) programs to eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) in western Africa use the anthelminthics ivermectin plus albendazole. These drugs have the potential to impact also Soil-Transmitted Helminth (STH) infections, since the drugs have a broad range of anthelminthic activity. Integration of preventive chemotherapy efforts for LF, onchocerciasis and STH is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in order to avoid duplication of MDA and to reduce costs. The objective of the current study was to determine whether five semi-annual rounds of community-wide MDA to eliminate LF and onchocerciasis have a greater impact on STH than three annual rounds of MDA with similar compliance. The effects of MDA using ivermectin (IVM, 0.2 mg/kg) combined with albendazole (ALB, 400 mg) on the prevalence and intensity of hookworm infection were evaluated in the Abengourou (annual MDA) and Akoupé (semi-annual MDA) health Districts in eastern Côte d’Ivoire from 2014 to 2017. A cross-sectional approach was used together with mixed logistic regression, and mixed linear models. Subjects were tested for STH using the Kato-Katz technique before the first round of MDA and 12, 24, and 36 months after the first round of MDA. The mean self-reported MDA compliance assessed during the survey was 65%, and no difference was observed between treatment areas. These results were confirmed by an independent coverage survey as recommended by WHO. Hookworm was the most prevalent STH species in both areas (23.9% vs 12.4%) and the prevalence of other STH species was less than 1%. The crude prevalence of hookworm dropped significantly, from 23.9% to 5.5% (p <0.001, 77% reduction) in the annual MDA treatment area and from 12.4% to 1.9% (p <0.001, 85% reduction) in the semi-annual treatment area. The average intensity of hookworm infection decreased in the annual MDA area (406.2 epg to 118.3 epg), but not in the semi-annual MDA area (804.9 epg to 875.0 epg). Moderate and heavy infections (1% and 1.3% at baseline) were reduced to 0% and 0.4% in the annual and semi-annual treatment areas, respectively. Using a mixed logistic regression model, and after adjusting for baseline prevalence, only the year 2 re-examination showed a difference in prevalence between treatments (OR: 2.26 [95% CI: 1.03, 4.98], p = 0.043). Analysis of intensity of hookworm infection indicated also that treatment differences varied by follow-up visit. In conclusion twelve months after the last treatment cycle, three annual and five semi-annual rounds of community-wide MDA with the combination of IVM and ALB showed strong, but similar impact on hookworm prevalence and intensity in eastern Côte d’Ivoire. Therefore, an annual MDA regimen seems to be an efficient strategy to control hookworm infection in endemic areas with low and moderate infection prevalence.

Trial registration: The study was registered at ClinicalTrial.gov under the number NTC02032043.

Community-wide MDA to eliminate LF and onchocerciasis has the beneficial effect to reduce also STH infections. The objective of the current study was to determine whether five semi-annual rounds of MDA have a greater impact on STH than three annual rounds of MDA using ivermectin combined with albendazole. In Abengourou and Akoupé health Districts in eastern Côte d’Ivoire the prevalence and intensity of hookworm infection were evaluated before and after MDA. Prior to MDA and after each annual treatment cycle, study participants were tested for STH using the Kato-Katz technique. The mean MDA compliance assessed during the survey was 65%, and no difference was observed between treatment areas. Compliance results were confirmed by an independent coverage survey as recommended by WHO. Hookworm was the most prevalent STH species in both areas and the prevalence of other STH species was less than 1%. The crude prevalence of hookworm dropped significantly, from 23.9% to 5.5% in the annual and from 12.4% to 1.9% in the semi-annual treatment areas. The intensity of hookworm infection in infected persons decreased significantly in the annual MDA area (406.2 epg to 118.3 epg, p = 0.017), but not in the semi-annual MDA area (804.9 epg to 875.0 epg, p = 0.216). Moderate and heavy infections were reduced to less than 1% in both treatment areas. Three annual and five semi-annual rounds of community-wide MDA with the combination of IVM and ALB showed strong, but similar effects on hookworm prevalence and intensity in eastern Côte d’Ivoire. Therefore, an annual MDA regimen seems to be an efficient strategy for controlling hookworm infection in endemic areas with low and moderate infection prevalence.

Dogs and pigs are transport hosts of Necator americanus: Molecular evidence for a zoonotic mechanism of human hookworm transmission in Ghana

Hookworm infection (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma spp) causes significant morbidity in resource-limited countries. Dog and pig ownership is associated with human infection, although the mechanism through which animals increase risk remains unknown. We first confirmed this association in Kintampo North, Ghana, using a retrospective analysis and serology, followed by a prospective molecular study of animal faeces. As a proxy of exposure to dog faeces, we analysed immunoreactivity of human serum to the zoonotic nematode Toxocara canis. Anti-Toxocara antibodies were present in 62% of samples (n = 89), and reactivity was associated with dog ownership. A subsequent prospective study revealed that 43% of dog and 56% of pig faecal samples contained hookworm eggs by microscopy. PCR analysis confirmed the presence of N. americanus DNA in 47% of samples from dogs and 56% pig samples. Nematode larvae were successfully cultured from samples collected from 36 dogs and seven pigs. These results demonstrate that dogs and pigs have a likely role in the transmission of N. americanus in endemic communities.

The impact of community-wide, mass drug administration on aggregation of soil-transmitted helminth infection in human host populations

Background

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are intestinal parasites estimated to infect over 1.5 billion people. Current treatment programmes are aimed at morbidity control through school-based deworming programmes (targeting school-aged children, SAC) and treating women of reproductive age (WRA), as these two groups are believed to record the highest morbidity. More recently, however, the potential for interrupting transmission by treating entire communities has been receiving greater emphasis and the feasibility of such programmes are now under investigation in randomised clinical trials through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded DeWorm3 studies. Helminth parasites are known to be highly aggregated within human populations, with a small minority of individuals harbouring most worms. Empirical evidence from the TUMIKIA project in Kenya suggests that aggregation may increase significantly after anthelminthic treatment.

Methods

A stochastic, age-structured, individual-based simulation model of parasite transmission is employed to better understand the factors that might induce this pattern. A simple probabilistic model based on compounded negative binomial distributions caused by age-dependencies in both treatment coverage and exposure to infection is also employed to further this understanding.

Results

Both approaches confirm helminth aggregation is likely to increase post-mass drug administration as measured by a decrease in the value of the negative binomial aggregation parameter, k. Simple analytical models of distribution compounding describe the observed patterns well.

Conclusions

The helminth aggregation that was observed in the field was replicated with our stochastic individual-based model. Further work is required to generalise the probabilistic model to take account of the respective sensitivities of different diagnostics on the presence or absence of infection.

Zoonotic transmission of intestinal helminths in southeast Asia: Implications for control and elimination

Intestinal helminths are extremely widespread and highly prevalent infections of humans, particularly in rural and poor urban areas of low and middle-income countries. These parasites have chronic and often insidious effects on human health and child development including abdominal problems, anaemia, stunting and wasting. Certain animals play a fundamental role in the transmission of many intestinal helminths to humans. However, the contribution of zoonotic transmission to the overall burden of human intestinal helminth infection and the relative importance of different animal reservoirs remains incomplete. Moreover, control programmes and transmission models for intestinal helminths often do not consider the role of zoonotic reservoirs of infection. Such reservoirs will become increasingly important as control is scaled up and there is a move towards interruption and even elimination of parasite transmission. With a focus on southeast Asia, and the Philippines in particular, this review summarises the major zoonotic intestinal helminths, risk factors for infection and highlights knowledge gaps related to their epidemiology and transmission. Various methodologies are discussed, including parasite genomics, mathematical modelling and socio-economic analysis, that could be employed to improve understanding of intestinal helminth spread, reservoir attribution and the burden associated with infection, as well as assess effectiveness of interventions. For sustainable control and ultimately elimination of intestinal helminths, there is a need to move beyond scheduled mass deworming and to consider animal and environmental reservoirs. A One Health approach to control of intestinal helminths is proposed, integrating interventions targeting humans, animals and the environment, including improved access to water, hygiene and sanitation. This will require coordination and collaboration across different sectors to achieve best health outcomes for all.

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm ( Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

Investigating the Effectiveness of Current and Modified World Health Organization Guidelines for the Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections

Background

Considerable efforts have been made to better understand the effectiveness of large-scale preventive chemotherapy therapy for the control of morbidity caused by infection with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs): Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and the 2 hookworm species, Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for STH control include mass drug administration (MDA) programs based on prevalence measurements, aiming at reducing morbidity in pre–school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) by lowering the prevalence of moderate- to heavy-intensity infections to <1%.

Methods

We project the likely impact of following the current WHO guidelines and assess whether the WHO morbidity goals will be achieved across a range of transmission settings. We also investigate modifications that could be made to the current WHO treatment guidelines, and project their potential impacts in achieving morbidity and transmission control.

Results

While the standard guidelines are sufficient at low transmission levels, community-wide treatment (ie, involving pre-SAC, SAC, and adults) is essential if WHO morbidity goals are to be met in moderate- to high-transmission settings. Moreover, removing the recommendation of decreasing the treatment frequency at midline (5–6 years after the start of MDA) further improves the likelihood of achieving morbidity control in SAC.

Conclusions

We meld analyses based on 2 mathematical models of parasite transmission and control by MDA for the dominant STH species, to generate a unified treatment approach applicable across all settings, regardless of which STH infection is most common. We recommend clearly defined changes to the current WHO guidelines.

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

Targeting a highly repeated germline DNA sequence for improved real-time PCR-based detection of Ascaris infection in human stool

Background

With the expansion of soil transmitted helminth (STH) intervention efforts and the corresponding decline in infection prevalence, there is an increased need for sensitive and specific STH diagnostic assays. Previously, through next generation sequencing (NGS)-based identification and targeting of non-coding, high copy-number repetitive DNA sequences, we described the development of a panel of improved quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR)-based assays for the detection of Necator americanus, Ancylostoma duodenale, Ancylostoma ceylanicum, Trichuris trichiura, and Strongyloides stercoralis. However, due to the phenomenon of chromosome diminution, a similar assay based on high copy-number repetitive DNA was not developed for the detection of Ascaris lumbricoides. Recently, the publication of a reference-level germline genome sequence for A. lumbricoides has facilitated our development of an improved assay for this human pathogen of vast global importance.

Methodology/Principal findings

Repurposing raw DNA sequence reads from a previously published Illumina-generated, NGS-based A. lumbricoides germline genome sequencing project, we performed a cluster-based repeat analysis utilizing RepeatExplorer2 software. This analysis identified the most prevalent repetitive DNA element of the A. lumbricoides germline genome (AGR, Ascaris germline repeat), which was then used to develop an improved qPCR assay. During experimental validation, this assay demonstrated a fold increase in sensitivity of ~3,100, as determined by relative Cq values, when compared with an assay utilizing a previously published, frequently employed, ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) DNA target. A comparative analysis of 2,784 field-collected samples was then performed, successfully verifying this improved sensitivity.

Conclusions/Significance

Through analysis of the germline genome sequence of A. lumbricoides, a vastly improved qPCR assay has been developed. This assay, utilizing a high copy-number repeat target found in eggs and embryos (the AGR repeat), will improve prevalence estimates that are fundamental to the programmatic decision-making process, while simultaneously strengthening mathematical models used to examine STH infection rates. Furthermore, through the identification of an optimal target for PCR, future assay development efforts will also benefit, as the identity of the optimized repeat DNA target is likely to remain unchanged despite continued improvement in PCR-based diagnostic technologies.

With an at-risk population in the billions, Ascaris lumbricoides is a pathogen of great global importance. In recent years, efforts to control the spread of this parasitic helminth have expanded, resulting in declining infection rates and worm burdens in some regions. While immeasurably important for global health, these declines have also served to expose the shortcomings of traditional diagnostic methods, as low-levels of pathogen generate a need for more sensitive tools, and microscopy-based techniques are proving ill-suited to the task at hand. Thankfully, improved sensitivity can be achieved through the careful selection of optimal repetitive DNA targets for PCR. However, previous attempts to identify such targets in A. lumbricoides were unsuccessful, largely due to chromosome diminution, an unusual phenomenon occurring in the Ascaridida, whereby large portions of the germline genome are reproducibly eliminated during early development, resulting in their absence in larvae or adult worms. As the stool-based molecular diagnosis of A. lumbricoides infection is primarily dependent upon the identification of egg-derived DNA, utilizing genomic DNA from adult worms for molecular target selection eliminates germline candidates and results in suboptimal target sequence choices. Recently, the publication of a pre-diminution germline genome of A. lumbricoides has provided us with an opportunity to re-evaluate target selection, facilitating the development of a novel quantitative real-time PCR assay with greatly improved sensitivity (~3100-fold as determined by relative Cq value) over previously developed assays that were based on ribosomal repeat DNA sequences with lower copy numbers.

Sampling strategies for monitoring and evaluation of morbidity targets for soil-transmitted helminths

Background

The current World Health Organization (WHO) target for the three major soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections is to reduce prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections to below 1% by 2020. In terms of monitoring and evaluation (M&E), the current WHO guidelines for control of STHs recommend evaluation of infection levels in school-age children (SAC) after five to six years of preventive chemotherapy (PC), using the standard Kato-Katz faecal smear. Here, we assess the predictive performance of various sampling designs for the evaluation of the morbidity target.

Methodology/Principal findings

Using two mathematical models for STH transmission and control, we simulate how the number of villages and SAC sampled affect the ability of survey results in sentinel villages to predict the achievement of the morbidity target in PC implementation units (e.g. districts). As PC is stopped when the prevalence of infection in SAC in sentinel villages is less than 1%, we estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of this indicator for meeting the morbidity target in the whole district. The PPV varies by species and PC strategy, and it is generally higher in areas with lower pre-control prevalence. Sampling a fixed number of SAC spread out over 10 instead of 5 sentinel villages may increase the PPV by up to 20 percentage points. If every SAC in a village is tested, a higher number of villages may increase the PPV by up to 80 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of SAC tested per village does not result in a relevant increase of PPV.

Conclusions/Significance

Although the WHO guidelines provide a combined strategy to control the three STH species, the efficacy of PC strategies clearly differs by species. There is added value in considering more villages within implementation units for M&E of morbidity targets, the extent varying by STH species. A better understanding of pre- and post-control local STH prevalence levels is essential for an adequate M&E strategy including the definition of morbidity targets at the appropriate geographical scale.

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) affect approximately 1.5 billion people worldwide. The World Health Organization target for STHs is to achieve <1% prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections among school-age children (SAC) through preventive chemotherapy (PC) with albendazole or mebendazole. For monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of STH infections, it is recommended to assess the infection levels in SAC after five to six years of treatment and to stop PC if the prevalence of infection is <1%. In this study, we use two mathematical models to assess the predictive performance of different sampling designs for the evaluation of the morbidity target. We find that the efficacy of PC strategies differs significantly by species and pre-control infection levels. Achieving 1% prevalence of infection in sentinel villages may still imply a prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections >1% in the entire PC implementation unit. Evaluating the prevalence of any infection over a higher number of sentinel villages improves the accuracy in assessing the morbidity target at the implementation unit level, even when a lower proportion of SAC per village is tested. A better understanding of pre- and post-control local STH prevalence levels through large scale data collection is essential for the definition of an adequate M&E strategy for STH control.

Predicted short and long-term impact of deworming and water, hygiene, and sanitation on transmission of soil-transmitted helminths

Background

Regular preventive chemotherapy (PCT) targeting high-risk populations is an effective way to control STH in the short term, but sustainable long-term STH control is expected to require improved access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). However, experimental studies have not been able to conclusively demonstrate the benefit of WASH in preventing STH (re-)infections. We investigated the impact of WASH on STH infections during and after PCT using mathematical modelling.

Methods and findings

We use the individual-based transmission model WORMSIM to predict the short and long-term impact of WASH on STH transmission in contexts with and without PCT. We distinguish two WASH modalities: sanitation, which reduces individuals’ contributions to environmental contamination; and hygiene, which reduces individuals’ exposure to infection. We simulate the impact of varying levels of uptake and effectiveness of each WASH modality, as well as their combined impact. Clearly, sanitation and hygiene interventions have little observable short-term impact on STH infections levels in the context of PCT. However, in the long term, both are pivotal to sustain control or eliminate infection levels after scaling down or stopping PCT. The impact of hygiene is determined more by the effectiveness of the intervention than its overall uptake, whereas the impact of sanitation depends more directly on the product of uptake and the effectiveness.

Interpretation

The impact of WASH interventions on STH transmission highly depends on the worm species, WASH modality, and uptake and effectiveness of the intervention. Also, the impact of WASH is difficult to measure in the context of ongoing PCT programmes. Still, we show a clear added benefit of WASH to sustain the gains made by PCT in the long term, such that PCT may be scaled down or even stopped altogether. To safely stop or scale down PCT, policy for WASH and PCT should be integrated.

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH), which are transmitted via faecal contamination of the environment, still infect over 1 billion people in developing countries because of absence or poor access to improved sources of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). In this study, we use a mathematical model for transmission and control of STH to investigate to what extent and on what time scale we can expect improved access to WASH to impact STH infection levels. Our predictions confirm findings from experimental studies that in the context of deworming campaigns, the impact of WASH is difficult to measure, which is due the strong and quick impact of deworming masking the slower, more long-term impact of WASH. We further show that the impact of WASH interventions on STH transmission highly depends on the worm species, WASH modality, uptake, effectiveness, and pre-control endemicity. Still, we show a clear added benefit of WASH to sustain the gains made by PCT in the long term, such that PCT may be scaled down or even stopped altogether. To safely stop or scale down PCT, policy for WASH and PCT should be integrated.

The effect of assortative mixing on stability of low helminth transmission levels and on the impact of mass drug administration: Model explorations for onchocerciasis

Background

Stable low pre-control prevalences of helminth infection are not uncommon in field settings, yet it is poorly understood how such low levels can be sustained, thereby challenging efforts to model them. Disentangling possible facilitating mechanisms is important, since these may differently affect intervention impact. Here we explore the role of assortative (i.e. non-homogenous) mixing and exposure heterogeneity in helminth transmission, using onchocerciasis as an example.

Methodology/Principal findings

We extended the established individual-based model ONCHOSIM to allow for assortative mixing, assuming that individuals who are relatively more exposed to fly bites are more connected to each other than other individuals in the population as a result of differential exposure to a sub-population of blackflies. We used the model to investigate how transmission stability, equilibrium microfilarial (mf) prevalence and intensity, and impact of mass drug administration depend on the assumed degree of assortative mixing and exposure heterogeneity, for a typical rural population of about 400 individuals. The model clearly demonstrated that with homogeneous mixing and moderate levels of exposure heterogeneity, onchocerciasis could not be sustained below 35% mf prevalence. In contrast, assortative mixing stabilised onchocerciasis prevalence at levels as low as 8% mf prevalence. Increasing levels of assortative mixing significantly reduced the probability of interrupting transmission, given the same duration and coverage of mass drug administration.

Conclusions/Significance

Assortative mixing patterns are an important factor to explain stable low prevalence situations and are highly relevant for prospects of elimination. Their effect on the pre-control distribution of mf intensities in human populations is only detectable in settings with mf prevalences <30%, where high skin mf density in mf-positive people may be an indication of assortative mixing. Local spatial variation in larval infection intensity in the blackfly intermediate host may also be an indicator of assortative mixing.

Most mathematical models for parasitic worm infections predict that at low prevalences transmission will fade out spontaneously because of the low mating probability of male and female worms. However, sustained low prevalence situations do exist in reality. Low prevalence areas have become of particular interest now that several worm infections are being targeted for elimination and the question arises whether transmission in such areas is driven locally and should be targeted with interventions. We hypothesise that an explanation for the existence of low prevalence areas is assortative mixing, which is the preferential mixing of high-risk groups among themselves and which has been shown to play an important role in transmission of other infectious diseases. For onchocerciasis, assortative mixing would mean that transmission is sustained by a sub-group of people and a connected sub-population of the blackfly intermediate host that mix preferentially with each other. Using a mathematical model, we study how assortative mixing allows for sustained low prevalences and show that it decreases the probability of interrupting transmission by means of mass drug administration. We further identify data sources that may be used to quantify the degree of assortative mixing in field settings.

Defining stopping criteria for ending randomized clinical trials that investigate the interruption of transmission of soil-transmitted helminths employing mass drug administration

The current World Health Organization strategy to address soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in children is based on morbidity control through routine deworming of school and pre-school aged children. However, given that transmission continues to occur as a result of persistent reservoirs of infection in untreated individuals (including adults) and in the environment, in many settings such a strategy will need to be continued for very extended periods of time, or until social, economic and environmental conditions result in interruption of transmission. As a result, there is currently much discussion surrounding the possibility of accelerating the interruption of transmission using alternative strategies of mass drug administration (MDA). However, the feasibility of achieving transmission interruption using MDA remains uncertain due to challenges in sustaining high MDA coverage levels across entire communities. The DeWorm3 trial, designed to test the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission, is currently ongoing. In DeWorm3, three years of high treatment coverage-indicated by mathematical models as necessary for breaking transmission-will be followed by two years of surveillance. Given the fast reinfection (bounce-back) rates of STH, a two year no treatment period is regarded as adequate to assess whether bounce-back or transmission interruption have occurred in a given location. In this study, we investigate if criteria to determine whether transmission interruption is unlikely can be defined at earlier timepoints. A stochastic, individual-based simulation model is employed to simulate core aspects of the DeWorm3 community-based cluster-randomized trial. This trial compares a control arm (annual treatment of children alone with MDA) with an intervention arm (community-wide biannual treatment with MDA). Simulations were run for each scenario for both Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm (Necator americanus). A range of threshold prevalences measured at six months after the last round of MDA and the impact of MDA coverage levels were evaluated to see if the likelihood of bounce-back or elimination could reliably be assessed at that point, rather than after two years of subsequent surveillance. The analyses suggest that all clusters should be assessed for transmission interruption after two years of surveillance, unless transmission interruption can be effectively ruled out through evidence of low treatment coverage. Models suggest a tight range of homogenous prevalence estimates following high coverage MDA across clusters which do not allow for discrimination between bounce back or transmission interruption within 24 months following cessation of MDA.

Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?

The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has received huge investment in recent years, leading to large reductions in morbidity. In 2012, the World Health Organization set ambitious targets for eliminating many of these diseases as a public health problem by 2020, an aspiration that was supported by donations of treatments, intervention materials, and funding committed by a broad partnership of stakeholders in the London Declaration on NTDs. Alongside these efforts, there has been an increasing role for quantitative analysis and modeling to support the achievement of these goals through evaluation of the likely impact of interventions, the factors that could undermine these achievements, and the role of new diagnostics and treatments in reducing transmission. In this special issue, we aim to summarize those insights in an accessible way. This article acts as an introduction to the special issue, outlining key concepts in NTDs and insights from modeling as we approach 2020.

Testing for soil-transmitted helminth transmission elimination: Analysing the impact of the sensitivity of different diagnostic tools

In recent years, an increased focus has been placed upon the possibility of the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) transmission using various interventions including mass drug administration. The primary diagnostic tool recommended by the WHO is the detection of STH eggs in stool using the Kato-Katz (KK) method. However, detecting infected individuals using this method becomes increasingly difficult as the intensity of infection decreases. Newer techniques, such as qPCR, have been shown to have greater sensitivity than KK, especially at low prevalence. However, the impact of using qPCR on elimination thresholds is yet to be investigated. In this paper, we aim to quantify how the sensitivity of these two diagnostic tools affects the optimal prevalence threshold at which to declare the interruption of transmission with a defined level of confidence. A stochastic, individual-based STH transmission model was used in this study to simulate the transmission dynamics of Ascaris and hookworm. Data from a Kenyan deworming study were used to parameterize the diagnostic model which was based on egg detection probabilities. The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were calculated to assess the quality of any given threshold, with the optimal threshold value taken to be that at which both were maximised. The threshold prevalence of infection values for declaring elimination of Ascaris transmission were 6% and 12% for KK and qPCR respectively. For hookworm, these threshold values are lower at 0.5% and 2% respectively. Diagnostic tests with greater sensitivity are becoming increasingly important as we approach the elimination of STH transmission in some regions of the world. For declaring the elimination of transmission, using qPCR to diagnose STH infection results in the definition of a higher prevalence, than when KK is used.

Prospects for elimination of soil-transmitted helminths

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are endemic in 120 countries and are associated with substantial morbidity and loss of economic productivity. Although current WHO guidelines focus on morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA), there is global interest in whether a strategy targeting disease elimination might be feasible in some settings. This review summarizes the prospects for switching from control to an elimination strategy.

RECENT FINDINGS

STH control efforts have reduced the intensity of infections in targeted populations with associated reductions in morbidity. However, adults are not frequently targeted and remain important reservoirs for reinfection of treated children. Recent modeling suggests that transmission interruption may be possible through expanded community-wide delivery of MDA, the feasibility of which has been demonstrated by other programs. However, these models suggest that high levels of coverage and compliance must be achieved. Potential challenges include the risk of prematurely dismantling STH programs and the potential increased risk of antihelminthic resistance.

SUMMARY

Elimination of STH may offer an opportunity to eliminate substantial STH-related morbidity while reducing resource needs of neglected tropical disease programs. Evidence from large community trials is needed to determine the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of STH in some geographic settings.

Identifying optimal threshold statistics for elimination of hookworm using a stochastic simulation model

BACKGROUND

There is an increased focus on whether mass drug administration (MDA) programmes alone can interrupt the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH). Mathematical models can be used to model these interventions and are increasingly being implemented to inform investigators about expected trial outcome and the choice of optimum study design. One key factor is the choice of threshold for detecting elimination. However, there are currently no thresholds defined for STH regarding breaking transmission.

METHODS

We develop a simulation of an elimination study, based on the DeWorm3 project, using an individual-based stochastic disease transmission model in conjunction with models of MDA, sampling, diagnostics and the construction of study clusters. The simulation is then used to analyse the relationship between the study end-point elimination threshold and whether elimination is achieved in the long term within the model. We analyse the quality of a range of statistics in terms of the positive predictive values (PPV) and how they depend on a range of covariates, including threshold values, baseline prevalence, measurement time point and how clusters are constructed.

RESULTS

End-point infection prevalence performs well in discriminating between villages that achieve interruption of transmission and those that do not, although the quality of the threshold is sensitive to baseline prevalence and threshold value. Optimal post-treatment prevalence threshold value for determining elimination is in the range 2% or less when the baseline prevalence range is broad. For multiple clusters of communities, both the probability of elimination and the ability of thresholds to detect it are strongly dependent on the size of the cluster and the size distribution of the constituent communities. Number of communities in a cluster is a key indicator of probability of elimination and PPV. Extending the time, post-study endpoint, at which the threshold statistic is measured improves PPV value in discriminating between eliminating clusters and those that bounce back.

CONCLUSIONS

The probability of elimination and PPV are very sensitive to baseline prevalence for individual communities. However, most studies and programmes are constructed on the basis of clusters. Since elimination occurs within smaller population sub-units, the construction of clusters introduces new sensitivities for elimination threshold values to cluster size and the underlying population structure. Study simulation offers an opportunity to investigate key sources of sensitivity for elimination studies and programme designs in advance and to tailor interventions to prevailing local or national conditions.

The past matters: estimating intrinsic hookworm transmission intensity in areas with past mass drug administration to control lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

Current WHO guidelines for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control focus on mass drug administration (MDA) targeting preschool-aged (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC), with the goal of eliminating STH as a public health problem amongst children. Recently, attention and funding has turned towards the question whether MDA alone can result in the interruption of transmission for STH. The lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination programme, have been successful in reaching whole communities. There is the possibility of building upon the infrastructure created for these LF-programmes to enhance the control of STH. Using hookworm as an example, we explore what further MDA coverage might be required to induce interruption of transmission for hookworm in the wake of a successful LF programme.

RESULTS

Analyses based on the model of STH transmission and MDA impact predict the effects of previous LF control by MDA over five years, on a defined baseline prevalence of STH in an area with a defined transmission intensity (the basic reproductive number R0). If the LF MDA programme achieved a high coverage (70, 70 and 60% for pre-SAC, SAC and adults, respectively) we expect that in communities with a hookworm prevalence of 15%, after 5 years of LF control, the intrinsic R0 value in that setting is 2.47. By contrast, if lower LF coverages were achieved (40, 40 and 30% for pre-SAC, SAC and adults, respectively), with the same prevalence of 15% at baseline (after 5 years of LF MDA), the intrinsic hookworm R0 value is predicted to be 1.67. The intrinsic R0 value has a large effect on the expected successes of follow-up STH programmes post LF MDA. Consequently, the outcomes of identical programmes may differ between these communities.

CONCLUSION

To design the optimal MDA intervention to eliminate STH infections, it is vital to have information on historical MDA programmes and baseline prevalence to estimate the intrinsic transmission intensity for the defined setting (R0). The baseline prevalence alone is not sufficient to inform policy for the control of STH, post cessation of LF MDA, since this will be highly dependent on the intensity and effectiveness of past programmes and the intrinsic transmission intensity of the dominant STH species in any given setting.