The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar: Data descriptions and epidemic modelling

Recombinant YopE and LcrV vaccine candidates protect mice against plague and yersiniosis

No licensed vaccine exists for the lethal plague and yersiniosis. Therefore, a combination of recombinant YopE and LcrV antigens of Yersinia pestis was evaluated for its vaccine potential in a mouse model. YopE and LcrV in formulation with alum imparted a robust humoral immune response, with isotyping profiles leaning towards the IgG1 and IgG2b subclasses. It was also observed that a significantly enhanced expression of IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-6, IL-2, and IL-1β from the splenic cells of vaccinated mice, as well as YopE and LcrV-explicit IFN-γ eliciting T-cells. The cocktail of YopE + LcrV formulation conferred complete protection against 100 LD50Y. pestis infection, while individually, LcrV and YopE provided 80 % and 60 % protection, respectively. Similarly, the YopE + LcrV vaccinated animal group had significantly lower colony forming unit (CFU) counts in the spleen and blood compared to the groups administered with YopE or LcrV alone when challenged with Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and Yersinia enterocolitica. Histopathologic evidence reinforces these results, indicating the YopE + LcrV formulation provided superior protection against acute lung injury as early as day 3 post-challenge. In conclusion, the alum-adjuvanted YopE + LcrV is a promising vaccine formulation, eliciting a robust antibody response including a milieu of pro-inflammatory cytokines and T-cell effector functions that contribute to the protective immunity against Yersinia infections. YopE and LcrV, conserved across all three human-pathogenic Yersinia species, provide cross-protection. Therefore, our current vaccine (YopE + LcrV) targets all three pathogens: Y. pestis, Y. pseudotuberculosis, and Y. enterocolitica. However, the efficacy should be tested in other higher mammalian models.

Development and evaluation of a multi-target droplet digital PCR assay for highly sensitive and specific detection of Yersinia pestis

BACKGROUND

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a zoonotic disease that poses considerable threats to human health. Nucleic acid tests are crucial for plague surveillance and the rapid detection of Y. pestis. However, inhibitors in complex samples such as soil and animal tissues often hamper nucleic acid detection, leading to a reduced rate of identifying low concentrations of Y. pestis. To address this challenge, we developed a sensitive and specific droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) assay for detecting Y. pestis DNA from soil and animal tissue samples.

METHODS

Three genes (ypo2088, caf1, and pla) from Y. pestis were used to develop a multi-target ddPCR assay. The limits of detection (LoD), reproducibility, and specificity were assessed for bacterial genomic DNA samples. The ability of the assay to detect low concentrations of Y. pestis DNA from simulated soil and mouse liver tissue samples was respectively evaluated and compared with that of quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR).

RESULTS

The results showed that the ddPCR LoDs ranged from 6.2 to 15.4 copies/reaction for the target genes, with good reproducibility and high specificity for Y. pestis. By testing 130 soil and mouse liver tissue samples spiked with Y. pestis, the ddPCR assay exhibited a better sensitivity than that of the qPCR assay used in the study, with LoDs of 102 colony forming units (CFU)/100 mg soil and 103 CFU/20 mg liver. Moreover, the assay presented good quantitative linearity (R2 = 0.99) for Y. pestis at 103-106 CFU/sample for soil and liver samples.

CONCLUSION

The ddPCR assay presented good performance for detecting Y. pestis DNA from soil and mouse tissue samples, showing great potential for improving the detection rate of low concentrations of Y. pestis in plague surveillance and facilitating the early diagnosis of plague cases.

Emergence, continuity, and evolution of Yersinia pestis throughout medieval and early modern Denmark

The historical epidemiology of plague is controversial due to the scarcity and ambiguity of available data.^1,2 A common source of debate is the extent and pattern of plague re-emergence and local continuity in Europe during the 14th-18th century CE.³ Despite having a uniquely long history of plague (∼5,000 years), Scandinavia is relatively underrepresented in the historical archives.^4,5 To better understand the historical epidemiology and evolutionary history of plague in this region, we performed in-depth (n = 298) longitudinal screening (800 years) for the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis) across 13 archaeological sites in Denmark from 1000 to 1800 CE. Our genomic and phylogenetic data captured the emergence, continuity, and evolution of Y. pestis in this region over a period of 300 years (14th-17th century CE), for which the plague-positivity rate was 8.3% (3.3%-14.3% by site). Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that the Danish Y. pestis sequences were interspersed with those from other European countries, rather than forming a single cluster, indicative of the generation, spread, and replacement of bacterial variants through communities rather than their long-term local persistence. These results provide an epidemiological link between Y. pestis and the unknown pestilence that afflicted medieval and early modern Europe. They also demonstrate how population-scale genomic evidence can be used to test hypotheses on disease mortality and epidemiology and help pave the way for the next generation of historical disease research.

Over 40 Years of Fosmidomycin Drug Research: A Comprehensive Review and Future Opportunities

To address the continued rise of multi-drug-resistant microorganisms, the development of novel drugs with new modes of action is urgently required. While humans biosynthesize the essential isoprenoid precursors isopentenyl diphosphate (IPP) and dimethylallyl diphosphate (DMAPP) via the established mevalonate pathway, pathogenic protozoa and certain pathogenic eubacteria use the less well-known methylerythritol phosphate pathway for this purpose. Important pathogens using the MEP pathway are, for example, Plasmodium falciparum, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Escherichia coli. The enzymes of that pathway are targets for antiinfective drugs that are exempt from target-related toxicity. 2C-Methyl-D-erythritol 4-phosphate (MEP), the second enzyme of the non-mevalonate pathway, has been established as the molecular target of fosmidomycin, an antibiotic that has so far failed to be approved as an anti-infective drug. This review describes the development and anti-infective properties of a wide range of fosmidomycin derivatives synthesized over the last four decades. Here we discuss the DXR inhibitor pharmacophore, which comprises a metal-binding group, a phosphate or phosphonate moiety and a connecting linker. Furthermore, non-fosmidomycin-based DXRi, bisubstrate inhibitors and several prodrug concepts are described. A comprehensive structure-activity relationship (SAR) of nearly all inhibitor types is presented and some novel opportunities for further drug development of DXR inhibitors are discussed.

Spray-Dried Inhalable Powder Formulations of Gentamicin Designed for Pneumonic Plague Therapy in a Mouse Model

Infection with Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis) may cause pneumonic plague, which is inevitably fatal without treatment. Gentamicin (GM), an aminoglycoside antibiotic, is a drug commonly used in the treatment of plague. However, it requires repeated intramuscular or intravenous administration. Pulmonary drug delivery is noninvasive, with the advantages of local targeting and reduced risk of systemic toxicity. In this study, GM powders were prepared using spray-drying technology. The powders displayed good physical and chemical properties and met the requirements for human pulmonary inhalation. The formulation of the powders was optimized using a 3² full factorial design. A formulation of 15% (w/w) of L-leucine was prepared, and the spray-drying process parameters using an inlet temperature of 120°C and a 15% pump rate were determined to produce the best powder. In addition, the optimized GM spray-dried powders were characterized in terms of morphology, crystallinity, powder fluidity, and aerodynamic particle size distribution analysis. In a mouse model of pneumonic plague, we compared the therapeutic effects among three administration routes, including subcutaneous injection, liquid atomization, and dry powder atomization. In conclusion, our data suggest that inhalation therapy with GM spray-dried powders is an effective treatment for pneumonic plague.

The magnitude of the germinal center B cell and T follicular helper cell response predicts long-lasting antibody titers to plague vaccination

The development of a safe and effective vaccine against Yersinia pestis, the causative organism for plague disease, remains an important global health priority. Studies have demonstrated effective immune-based protection against plague challenge that is induced by plague antigen subunit vaccination in an aqueous alhydrogel formulation; however, whether these candidate vaccines in this formulation and presentation, induce long-lasting immunological memory in the form of durable cellular and antibody recall responses has not been fully demonstrated. In this study, we analyzed germinal center T follicular helper and germinal center B cell responses following F1V and F1 + V plague subunit immunization of mice with vaccines formulated in various adjuvants. Our data demonstrate that recombinant plague protein immunization formulated with IL-2/GM-CSF cytokines bound to alhydrogel adjuvant drive an increase in the magnitude of the germinal center T follicular helper and germinal center B cell responses following primary immunization, compared to vaccines formulated with Alhydrogel adjuvant alone. In contrast, plague protein subunit immunization combined with CpG ODN bound to alhydrogel increased the magnitude and duration of the germinal center Tfh and B cell responses following booster immunization. Importantly, enhanced germinal center Tfh and B cell responses correlated with long-lasting and high F1V-specific antibody titers and more robust antibody recall responses to F1V re-exposure. These findings indicate that vaccine formulations that drive enhancement of the germinal center Tfh and B cell responses are critical for inducing durable plague-specific humoral immunity.

Recent Trends in Protective Textiles against Biological Threats: A Focus on Biological Warfare Agents

The rising threats to worldwide security (affecting the military, first responders, and civilians) urge us to develop efficient and versatile technological solutions to protect human beings. Soldiers, medical personnel, firefighters, and law enforcement officers should be adequately protected, so that their exposure to biological warfare agents (BWAs) is minimized, and infectious microorganisms cannot be spread so easily. Current bioprotective military garments include multilayered fabrics integrating activated carbon as a sorptive agent and a separate filtrating layer for passive protection. However, secondary contaminants emerge following their accumulation within the carbon filler. The clothing becomes too heavy and warm to wear, not breathable even, preventing the wearer from working for extended hours. Hence, a strong need exists to select and/or create selectively permeable layered fibrous structures with bioactive agents that offer an efficient filtering capability and biocidal skills, ensuring lightweightness, comfort, and multifunctionality. This review aims to showcase the main possibilities and trends of bioprotective textiles, focusing on metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), inorganic nanoparticles (e.g., ZnO-based), and organic players such as chitosan (CS)-based small-scale particles and plant-derived compounds as bioactive agents. The textile itself should be further evaluated as the foundation for the barrier effect and in terms of comfort. The outputs of a thorough, standardized characterization should dictate the best elements for each approach.

Development of a dual antigen lateral flow immunoassay for detecting Yersinia pestis

Background

Yersinia pestis is the causative agent of plague, a zoonosis associated with small mammals. Plague is a severe disease, especially in the pneumonic and septicemic forms, where fatality rates approach 100% if left untreated. The bacterium is primarily transmitted via flea bite or through direct contact with an infected host. The 2017 plague outbreak in Madagascar resulted in more than 2,400 cases and was highlighted by an increased number of pneumonic infections. Standard diagnostics for plague include laboratory-based assays such as bacterial culture and serology, which are inadequate for administering immediate patient care for pneumonic and septicemic plague.

Principal findings

The goal of this study was to develop a sensitive rapid plague prototype that can detect all virulent strains of Y. pestis. Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) were produced against two Y. pestis antigens, low-calcium response V (LcrV) and capsular fraction-1 (F1), and prototype lateral flow immunoassays (LFI) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) were constructed. The LFIs developed for the detection of LcrV and F1 had limits of detection (LOD) of roughly 1–2 ng/mL in surrogate clinical samples (antigens spiked into normal human sera). The optimized antigen-capture ELISAs produced LODs of 74 pg/mL for LcrV and 61 pg/mL for F1 when these antigens were spiked into buffer. A dual antigen LFI prototype comprised of two test lines was evaluated for the detection of both antigens in Y. pestis lysates. The dual format was also evaluated for specificity using a small panel of clinical near-neighbors and other Tier 1 bacterial Select Agents.

Conclusions

LcrV is expressed by all virulent Y. pestis strains, but homologs produced by other Yersinia species can confound assay specificity. F1 is specific to Y. pestis but is not expressed by all virulent strains. Utilizing highly reactive mAbs, a dual-antigen detection (multiplexed) LFI was developed to capitalize on the diagnostic strengths of each target.

Combinatorial Viral Vector-Based and Live Attenuated Vaccines without an Adjuvant to Generate Broader Immune Responses to Effectively Combat Pneumonic Plague

Mice immunized with a combination of an adenovirus vector (Ad5-YFV) and live-attenuated (LMA)-based vaccines were evaluated for protective efficacy against pneumonic plague. While the Ad5-YFV vaccine harbors a fusion cassette of three genes encoding YscF, F1, and LcrV, LMA represents a mutant of parental Yersinia pestis CO92 deleted for genes encoding Lpp, MsbB, and Ail. Ad5-YFV and LMA were either administered simultaneously (1-dose regimen) or 21 days apart in various orders and route of administration combinations (2-dose regimen). The 2-dose regimen induced robust immune responses to provide full protection to animals against parental CO92 and its isogenic F1 deletion mutant (CAF⁻) challenges during both short- and long-term studies. Mice intranasally (i.n.) immunized with Ad5-YFV first followed by LMA (i.n. or intramuscularly [i.m.]) had higher T- and B-cell proliferative responses and LcrV antibody titers than those in mice vaccinated with LMA (i.n. or i.m.) first ahead of Ad5-YFV (i.n.) during the long-term study. Specifically, the needle- and adjuvant-free vaccine combination (i.n.) is ideal for use in plague regions of endemicity. Conversely, with a 1-dose regimen, mice vaccinated with Ad5-YFV i.n. and LMA by the i.m. route provided complete protection to animals against CO92 and its CAF⁻ mutant challenges and elicited Th1/Th2, as well as Th17 responses, making it suitable for emergency vaccination during a plague outbreak or bioterrorist attack. This is a first study in which a viral vector-based and live-attenuated vaccines were effectively used in combination, representing adjuvant- and/or needle-free immunization, with each vaccine triggering a distinct cellular immune response.

Plague Prevention and Therapy: Perspectives on Current and Future Strategies

Plague, caused by the bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis, is a vector-borne disease that has caused millions of human deaths over several centuries. Presently, human plague infections continue throughout the world. Transmission from one host to another relies mainly on infected flea bites, which can cause enlarged lymph nodes called buboes, followed by septicemic dissemination of the pathogen. Additionally, droplet inhalation after close contact with infected mammals can result in primary pneumonic plague. Here, we review research advances in the areas of vaccines and therapeutics for plague in context of Y. pestis virulence factors and disease pathogenesis. Plague continues to be both a public health threat and a biodefense concern and we highlight research that is important for infection mitigation and disease treatment.

Bacteriophages fEV-1 and fD1 Infect Yersinia pestis

Bacteriophages vB_YpeM_fEV-1 (fEV-1) and vB_YpeM_fD1 (fD1) were isolated from incoming sewage water samples in Turku, Finland, using Yersinia pestis strains EV76 and KIM D27 as enrichment hosts, respectively. Genomic analysis and transmission electron microscopy established that fEV-1 is a novel type of dwarf myovirus, while fD1 is a T4-like myovirus. The genome sizes are 38 and 167 kb, respectively. To date, the morphology and genome sequences of some dwarf myoviruses have been described; however, a proteome characterization such as the one presented here, has currently been lacking for this group of viruses. Notably, fEV-1 is the first dwarf myovirus described for Y. pestis. The host range of fEV-1 was restricted strictly to Y. pestis strains, while that of fD1 also included other members of Enterobacterales such as Escherichia coli and Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. In this study, we present the life cycles, genomes, and proteomes of two Yersinia myoviruses, fEV-1 and fD1.

Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Prevent Plague in Madagascar

Plague (Yersinia pestis) remains endemic in certain parts of the world. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of plague control interventions recommended by the World Health Organization with particular consideration to intervention coverage and timing. We developed a dynamic model of the spread of plague between interacting populations of humans, rats, and fleas and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis calibrated to a 2017 Madagascar outbreak. We assessed three interventions alone and in combination: expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline, mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis, and mass distribution of malathion. We varied intervention timing and coverage levels. We calculated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from a healthcare perspective. The preferred intervention, using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $1350/QALY (GDP per capita in Madagascar), was expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline with 100% coverage starting immediately after the first reported case, gaining 543 QALYs at an incremental cost of $1023/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses support expanded access to antibiotic treatment and leave open the possibility that mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis or mass distribution of malathion could be cost-effective. Our analysis highlights the potential for rapid expansion of access to doxycycline upon recognition of plague outbreaks to cost-effectively prevent future large-scale plague outbreaks and highlights the importance of intervention timing.

A decade of plague in Madagascar: a description of two hotspot districts

BACKGROUND

Human plague cases, mainly in the bubonic form, occur annually in endemic regions of the central highlands of Madagascar. The aim of this study was to compare the dynamics of the epidemiological features of the human plague in two districts of the central highlands region.

METHODS

In Madagascar, all clinically suspected plague cases that meet clinical and epidemiological criteria specified in the World Health Organization (WHO) standard case definition are reported to the national surveillance system. Data on plague cases reported between 2006 and 2015 in the districts of Ambositra and Tsiroanomandidy were analysed. Statistical comparisons between the epidemiological characteristics of the two districts were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 840 cases of plague were reported over the studied period, including 563 (67%) probable and confirmed cases (P + C). Out of these P + C cases, nearly 86% (488/563) were cases of bubonic plague. Reported clinical forms of plague were significantly different between the districts from 2006 to 2015 (p = 0.001). Plague cases occurred annually in a period of 10 years in the Tsiroanomandidy district. During the same period, the Ambositra district was characterized by a one-year absence of cases.

CONCLUSION

The differences in the epidemiological situation with respect to the plague from 2006 to 2015 in the two central highlands districts may suggest that several factors other than biogeographical factors determine the representation of the plague and its dynamics in this region. Considering the epidemiological situations according to the specific contexts of the districts could improve the results in the fight against the plague in Madagascar.

Influence of Sociospatial determinants on knowledge, attitudes and practices related to the plague in a population living in endemic areas in the central highlands, Madagascar

Background

Plague is endemic to the central highlands of Madagascar. Sporadic human cases or outbreaks can occur annually in these areas. In Madagascar, the associations between endemicity and the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of the population with regard to this disease remain poorly documented. The aim of this study was to assess KAP related to plague among the population living in the central highlands.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in the general population from June to August 2017. Based on the reported cases of plague between 2006 and 2015 in two central highland districts, a KAP questionnaire was administered in the population. Based on the proportion of correct answers provided by respondents, KAP scores were classified into three KAP categories: low (< Mean - SD), medium (Mean ± SD) and good (> Mean + SD). Multivariate analyses were performed to determine the associations between population KAP scores related to plague and sociodemographic and epidemiological factors. In addition, individual interviews and focus groups with health professionals were conducted to assess plague perception.

Results

A total of 597 individuals participated in the survey; 20% (n = 119) had a good KAP score, 62% (n = 370) a medium KAP score and 18% (n = 108) a low KAP score. Among the 119 respondents with good KAP scores, 80% (n = 95) resided in Ambositra district, and 20% (n = 24) resided in Tsiroanomandidy district. According to the health professionals in the two districts, populations in endemic areas are well aware of the plague. There were significant associations (p <  0.05) of not owning a mobile phone, having no contact with a former plague case, and living in Tsiroanomandidy district with a lower KAP score.

Conclusion

The results of the study showed the need to adapt plague control interventions to the local context to allow a better allocation of human and financial resources. Doing so would minimize delays in patient management care and increase community resilience to plague epidemics.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11101-3.

Critical Comparison between Large and Mini Vertical Flow Immunoassay Platforms for Yersinia Pestis Detection

Yersinia pestis is a Gram-negative bacterium that is the causative agent of plague and is widely recognized as a potential biological weapon. Due to the high fatality rate of plague when diagnosis is delayed, the development of rapid, sensitive, specific, and cost-effective methods is needed for its diagnosis. The Y. pestis low calcium response V (LcrV) protein has been identified as a potential microbial biomarker for the diagnosis of plague. In this paper, we present a highly sensitive, paper-based, vertical flow immunoassay (VFI) prototype for the detection of LcrV and the diagnosis of plague. An antigen-capture assay using monoclonal antibodies is employed to capture and detect the LcrV protein, using a colorimetric approach. In addition, the effect of miniaturizing the VFI device is explored based on two different sizes of VFI platforms, denoted as "large VFI" and "mini VFI." Also, a comparative analysis is performed between the VFI platform and a lateral flow immunoassay (LFI) platform to exhibit the improved assay sensitivity suitable for point-of-care (POC) diagnostics. The analytical sensitivity or limit of detection (LOD) in the mini VFI is approximately 0.025 ng/mL, that is, 10 times better than that of the large VFI platform or 80 times over a standard lateral flow configuration. The low LOD of the LcrV VFI appears to be highly suitable for testing clinical samples and potentially diagnosing plague at earlier time points. In addition, optimization of the gold nanoparticle (AuNP) concentration, nanomaterial plasmonic properties, and flow velocity analysis could improve the performance of the VFI. Furthermore, we developed automated image analysis software that shows potential for integrating the diagnostic system into a smartphone. These methods and findings demonstrate that the VFI platform is a highly sensitive device for detecting the LcrV and potentially many other biomarkers.

Single-dose intranasal subunit vaccine rapidly clears secondary sepsis in a high-dose pneumonic plague infection

Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, has killed millions throughout human history. Though public health initiatives have reduced the number of plague cases, it remains endemic in many areas of the world. It also remains a significant threat for use as a biological weapon. Naturally occurring multi-drug antibiotic resistance has been observed in Y. pestis, and resistant strains have been engineered for use as a biological weapon. Vaccines represent our best means of protection against the threat of antibiotic resistant plague. We have developed a vaccine consisting of two Y. pestis virulence factors, LcrV (V) and F1, conjugated to Tobacco Mosaic Virus (TMV), a safe, non-replicating plant virus that can be administered mucosally, providing complete protection against pneumonic plague, the deadliest form of the disease and the one most likely to be seen in a biological attack. A single intranasal (i.n.) dose of TMV-F1 + TMV-V (TMV-F1/V) protected 88% of mice against lethal challenge with 100 LD₅₀ of Y. pestis CO92pgm-, while immunization with rF1 + rV without TMV was not protective. Serum and tissues were collected at various timepoints after challenge to assess bacterial clearance, histopathology, cytokine production, and antibody production. Overall, TMV-F1/V immunized mice showed a significant reduction in histopathology, bacterial burden, and inflammatory cytokine production following challenge compared to rF1 + rV vaccinated and unvaccinated mice. Pneumonic challenge resulted in systemic dissemination of the bacteria in all groups, but only TMV-F1/V immunized mice rapidly cleared bacteria from the spleen and liver. There was a direct correlation between pre-challenge serum F1 titers and recovery in all immunized mice, strongly suggesting a role for antibody in the neutralization and/or opsonization of Y. pestis in this model. Mucosal administration of a single dose of a Y. pestis TMV-based subunit vaccine, without any additional adjuvant, can effectively protect mice from lethal infection.

Dangerous Pathogens as a Potential Problem for Public Health

Pathogens are various organisms, such as viruses, bacteria, fungi, and protozoa, which can cause severe illnesses to their hosts. Throughout history, pathogens have accompanied human populations and caused various epidemics. One of the most significant outbreaks was the Black Death, which occurred in the 14th century and caused the death of one-third of Europe's population. Pathogens have also been studied for their use as biological warfare agents by the former Soviet Union, Japan, and the USA. Among bacteria and viruses, there are high priority agents that have a significant impact on public health. Bacillus anthracis, Francisella tularensis, Yersinia pestis, Variola virus, Filoviruses (Ebola, Marburg), Arenoviruses (Lassa), and influenza viruses are included in this group of agents. Outbreaks and infections caused by them might result in social disruption and panic, which is why special operations are needed for public health preparedness. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria that significantly impede treatment and recovery of patients are also valid threats. Furthermore, recent events related to the massive spread of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are an example of how virus-induced diseases cannot be ignored. The impact of outbreaks, such as SARS-CoV-2, have had far-reaching consequences beyond public health. The economic losses due to lockdowns are difficult to estimate, but it would take years to restore countries to pre-outbreak status. For countries affected by the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), their health systems have been overwhelmed, resulting in an increase in the mortality rate caused by diseases or injuries. Furthermore, outbreaks, such as SARS-CoV-2, will induce serious, wide-ranging (and possibly long-lasting) psychological problems among, not only health workers, but ordinary citizens (this is due to isolation, quarantine, etc.). The aim of this paper is to present the most dangerous pathogens, as well as general characterizations, mechanisms of action, and treatments.

First Prototype of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) Software for Prompt Identification of Infectious Diseases

The rapid detection of ongoing outbreak – and the identification of causative pathogen – is pivotal for the early recognition of public health threats. The emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases are linked to several determinants, both human factors – such as population density, travel, and trade – and ecological factors – like climate change and agricultural practices. Several technologies are available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens [e.g. real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR)], and together with on line monitoring tools of infectious disease activity and behaviour, they contribute to the surveillance system for infectious diseases. Web-based surveillance tools, infectious diseases modelling and epidemic intelligence methods represent crucial components for timely outbreak detection and rapid risk assessment. The study aims to integrate the current prevention and control system with a prediction tool for infectious diseases, based on regression analysis, to support decision makers, health care workers, and first responders to quickly and properly recognise an outbreak. This study has the intention to develop an infectious disease regressive prediction tool working with an off-line database built with specific epidemiological parameters of a set of infectious diseases of high consequences. The tool has been developed as a first prototype of a software solution called Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) and it had been established in two main steps, the database building stage and the software implementation stage (MATLAB^® environment). The IDS has been tested with the epidemiological data of three outbreaks occurred recently: severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in China (2002–2003), plague outbreak in Madagascar (2017) and the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (2018). The outcomes are promising and they reveal that the software has been able to recognize and characterize these outbreaks. The future perspective about this software regards the developing of that tool as a useful and user-friendly predictive tool appropriate for first responders, health care workers, and public health decision makers to help them in predicting, assessing and contrasting outbreaks.

A forensic evaluation of plague - a re-emerging infectious disease with biowarfare potential

Plague is an acute infectious disease caused by the gram-negative cocco-bacillus Yersinia pestis. It has been responsible for 200 million deaths throughout history with three major pandemics. There are three forms: bubonic, septicaemic and pneumonic, each carrying a significant mortality rate. The usual transmission is from fleas carried by rodents. Recently, it has been listed as one of the reemerging infectious diseases globally, with a potential use in bioterrorism. At autopsy there may be lymphadenopathy, fulminant pneumonia or diffuse interstitial pneumonitis. However any organ may be affected with myocarditis, meningitis, pharyngitis and hepatic and splenic necrosis. The lethality of plague with the resurgence in numbers of cases, development of antibiotic resistance, recent occurrence in urban areas and the lack of a vaccine make it a disease not to be missed in the mortuary.

Dynamical footprints enable detection of disease emergence

Developing methods for anticipating the emergence or reemergence of infectious diseases is both important and timely; however, traditional model-based approaches are stymied by uncertainty surrounding the underlying drivers. Here, we demonstrate an operational, mechanism-agnostic detection algorithm for disease (re-)emergence based on early warning signals (EWSs) derived from the theory of critical slowing down. Specifically, we used computer simulations to train a supervised learning algorithm to detect the dynamical footprints of (re-)emergence present in epidemiological data. Our algorithm was then challenged to forecast the slowly manifesting, spatially replicated reemergence of mumps in England in the mid-2000s and pertussis post-1980 in the United States. Our method successfully anticipated mumps reemergence 4 years in advance, during which time mitigation efforts could have been implemented. From 1980 onwards, our model identified resurgent states with increasing accuracy, leading to reliable classification starting in 1992. Additionally, we successfully applied the detection algorithm to 2 vector-transmitted case studies, namely, outbreaks of dengue serotypes in Puerto Rico and a rapidly unfolding outbreak of plague in 2017 in Madagascar. Taken together, these findings illustrate the power of theoretically informed machine learning techniques to develop early warning systems for the (re-)emergence of infectious diseases.

Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes

The Justinianic Plague, the first part of the earliest of the three plague pandemics, has minimal historical documentation. Based on the limited primary sources, historians have argued both for and against the "maximalist narrative" of plague, i.e. that the Justinianic Plague had universally devastating effects throughout the Mediterranean region during the sixth century CE. Using primary sources of one of the pandemic’s best documented outbreaks that took place in Constantinople during 542 CE, as well as modern findings on plague etiology and epidemiology, we developed a series of dynamic, compartmental models of disease to explore which, if any, transmission routes of plague are feasible. Using expected parameter values, we find that the bubonic and bubonic-pneumonic transmission routes exceed maximalist mortality estimates and are of shorter detectable duration than described by the primary sources. When accounting for parameter uncertainty, several of the bubonic plague model configurations yielded interquartile estimates consistent with the upper end of maximalist estimates of mortality; however, these models had shorter detectable outbreaks than suggested by the primary sources. The pneumonic transmission routes suggest that by itself, pneumonic plague would not cause significant mortality in the city. However, our global sensitivity analysis shows that predicted disease dynamics vary widely for all hypothesized transmission routes, suggesting that regardless of its effects in Constantinople, the Justinianic Plague would have likely had differential effects across urban areas around the Mediterranean. Our work highlights the uncertainty surrounding the details in the primary sources on the Justinianic Plague and calls into question the likelihood that the Justinianic Plague affected all localities in the same way.

Activation of Heme Oxygenase Expression by Cobalt Protoporphyrin Treatment Prevents Pneumonic Plague Caused by Inhalation of Yersinia pestis

Pneumonic plague, caused by the Gram-negative bacteria Yersinia pestis, is an invasive, rapidly progressing disease with poor survival rates. Following inhalation of Y. pestis, bacterial invasion of the lungs and a tissue-damaging inflammatory response allows vascular spread of the infection. Consequently, primary pneumonic plague is a multiorgan disease involving sepsis and necrosis of immune tissues and the liver, as well as bronchopneumonia and rampant bacterial growth. Given the likely role of the hyperinflammatory response in accelerating the destruction of tissue, in this work we evaluated the therapeutic potential of the inducible cytoprotective enzyme heme oxygenase 1 (HO-1) against primary pneumonic plague. On its own, the HO-1 inducer cobalt protoporphyrin IX (CoPP) provided mice protection from lethal challenge with Y. pestis CO92 with improved pulmonary bacterial clearance and a dampened inflammatory response compared to vehicle-treated mice. Furthermore, CoPP treatment combined with doxycycline strongly enhanced protection in a rat aerosol challenge model. Compared to doxycycline alone, CoPP treatment increased survival, with a 3-log decrease in median bacterial titer recovered from the lungs and the general absence of a systemic hyperinflammatory response. In contrast, treatment with the HO-1 inhibitor SnPP had no detectable impact on doxycycline efficacy. The combined data indicate that countering inflammatory toxicity by therapeutically inducing HO-1 is effective in reducing the rampant growth of Y. pestis and preventing pneumonic plague.

Inhibition of the Yersinia pestis Methylerythritol Phosphate Pathway of Isoprenoid Biosynthesis by α-Phenyl-Substituted Reverse Fosmidomycin Analogues

Fosmidomycin inhibits IspC (1-deoxy-d-xylulose 5-phosphate reductoisomerase), the first committed enzyme in the methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) pathway of isoprenoid biosynthesis. The MEP pathway of isoprenoid biosynthesis is essential to the causative agent of the plague, Yersinia pestis, and is entirely distinct from the corresponding mammalian pathway. To further drug development, we established structure-activity relationships of fosmidomycin analogues by assessing a suite of 17 α-phenyl-substituted reverse derivatives of fosmidomycin against Y. pestis IspC. Several of these compounds showed increased potency over fosmidomycin with IC₅₀ values in the nanomolar range. Additionally, we performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing with Y. pestis A1122 (YpA1122). The bacteria were susceptible to several compounds with minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) values ranging from 128 to 512 μg/mL; a correlation between the IC₅₀ and MIC values was observed.

The Genome of the Great Gerbil Reveals Species-Specific Duplication of an MHCII Gene

The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a social rodent living in permanent, complex burrow systems distributed throughout Central Asia, where it serves as the main host of several important vector-borne infectious pathogens including the well-known plague bacterium (Yersinia pestis). Here, we present a continuous annotated genome assembly of the great gerbil, covering over 96% of the estimated 2.47-Gb genome. Taking advantage of the recent genome assemblies of the sand rat (Psammomys obesus) and the Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus), comparative immunogenomic analyses reveal shared gene losses within TLR gene families (i.e., TLR8, TLR10, and the entire TLR11-subfamily) for Gerbillinae, accompanied with signs of diversifying selection of TLR7 and TLR9. Most notably, we find a great gerbil-specific duplication of the MHCII DRB locus. In silico analyses suggest that the duplicated gene provides high peptide binding affinity for Yersiniae epitopes as well as Leishmania and Leptospira epitopes, putatively leading to increased capability to withstand infections by these pathogens. Our study demonstrates the power of whole-genome sequencing combined with comparative genomic analyses to gain deeper insight into the immunogenomic landscape of the great gerbil and its close relatives.

Reversible Gene Expression Control in Yersinia pestis by Using an Optimized CRISPR Interference System

Many genes in the bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of three plague pandemics, remain uncharacterized, greatly hampering the development of measures for plague prevention and control. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat interference (CRISPRi) has been shown to be an effective tool for gene knockdown in model bacteria. In this system, a catalytically dead Cas9 (dCas9) and a small guide RNA (sgRNA) form a complex, binding to the specific DNA target through base pairing, thereby impeding RNA polymerase binding and causing target gene repression. Here, we introduce an optimized CRISPRi system using Streptococcus pyogenes Cas9-derived dCas9 for gene knockdown in Y. pestis Multiple genes harbored on either the chromosome or plasmids of Y. pestis were efficiently knocked down (up to 380-fold) in a strictly anhydrotetracycline-inducible manner using this CRISPRi approach. Knockdown of hmsH (responsible for biofilm formation) or cspB (encoding a cold shock protein) resulted in greatly decreased biofilm formation or impaired cold tolerance in in vitro phenotypic assays. Furthermore, silencing of the virulence-associated genes yscB or ail using this CRISPRi system resulted in attenuation of virulence in HeLa cells and mice similar to that previously reported for yscB and ail null mutants. Taken together, our results confirm that this optimized CRISPRi system can reversibly and efficiently repress the expression of target genes in Y. pestis, providing an alternative to conventional gene knockdown techniques, as well as a strategy for high-throughput phenotypic screening of Y. pestis genes with unknown functions.IMPORTANCE Yersinia pestis is a lethal pathogen responsible for millions of human deaths in history. It has also attracted much attention for potential uses as a bioweapon or bioterrorism agent, against which new vaccines are desperately needed. However, many Y. pestis genes remain uncharacterized, greatly hampering the development of measures for plague prevention and control. Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat interference (CRISPRi) has been successfully used in a variety of bacteria in functional genomic studies, but no such genetic tool has been reported in Y. pestis Here, we systematically optimized the CRISPRi approach for use in Y. pestis, which ultimately repressed target gene expression with high efficiency in a reversible manner. Knockdown of functional genes using this method produced phenotypes that were readily detected by in vitro assays, cell infection assays, and mouse infection experiments. This is a report of a CRISPRi approach in Y. pestis and highlights the potential use of this approach in high-throughput functional genomics studies of this pathogen.

Living with plague: Lessons from the Soviet Union's antiplague system

Zoonoses, such as plague, are primarily animal diseases that spill over into human populations. While the goal of eradicating such diseases is enticing, historical experience validates abandoning eradication in favor of ecologically based control strategies (which reduce morbidity and mortality to a locally accepted risk level). During the 20th century, one of the most extensive plague-eradication efforts in recorded history was undertaken to enable large-scale changes in land use in the former Soviet Union (including vast areas of central Asia). Despite expending tremendous resources in its attempt to eradicate plague, the Soviet antiplague response gradually abandoned the goal of eradication in favor of plague control linked with developing basic knowledge of plague ecology. Drawing from this experience, we combine new gray-literature sources, historical and recent research, and fieldwork to outline best practices for the control of spillover from zoonoses while minimally disrupting wildlife ecosystems, and we briefly compare the Soviet case with that of endemic plague in the western United States. We argue for the allocation of sufficient resources to maintain ongoing local surveillance, education, and targeted control measures; to incorporate novel technologies selectively; and to use ecological research to inform developing landscape-based models for transmission interruption. We conclude that living with emergent and reemergent zoonotic diseases-switching to control-opens wider possibilities for interrupting spillover while preserving natural ecosystems, encouraging adaptation to local conditions, and using technological tools judiciously and in a cost-effective way.

Vaccines for emerging pathogens: prospects for licensure

Globally, there are a number of emerging pathogens. For most, there are no licensed vaccines available for human use, although there is ongoing research and development. However, given the extensive and increasing list of emerging pathogens and the investment required to bring vaccines into clinical use, the task is huge. Overlaid on this task is the risk of anti‐microbial resistance (AMR) acquisition by micro‐organisms which can endow a relatively harmless organism with pathogenic potential. Furthermore, climate change also introduces a challenge by causing some of the insect vectors and environmental conditions prevalent in tropical regions to begin to spread out from these traditional areas, thus increasing the risk of migration of zoonotic disease.

Vaccination provides a defence against these emerging pathogens. However, vaccines for pathogens which cause severe, but occasional, disease outbreaks in endemic pockets have suffered from a lack of commercial incentive for development to a clinical standard, encompassing Phase III clinical trials for efficacy. An alternative is to develop such vaccines to request US Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), or equivalent status in the United States, Canada and the European Union, making use of a considerable number of regulatory mechanisms that are available prior to licensing. This review covers the status of vaccine development for some of the emerging pathogens, the hurdles that need to be overcome to achieve EUA or an equivalent regional or national status and how these considerations may impact vaccine development for the future, such that a more comprehensive stockpile of promising vaccines can be achieved.

Targeting of the Yersinia pestis F1 capsular antigen by innate-like B1b cells mediates a rapid protective response against bubonic plague

The generation of adaptive immunity by vaccination is usually a prolonged process that requires multiple dosing over several months. Hence, vaccines are administered for disease prevention a relatively long time prior to possible infection as opposed to post-exposure prophylaxis, which typically requires rapid intervention such as antibiotic therapy. The emergence of pathogens resistant to common antibiotic treatments has prompted the search for alternative therapeutic strategies. We previously demonstrated that vaccination of mice with the F1 capsular antigen of Yersinia pestis elicits specific and effective yet, unexpectedly, rapid anti-plague immunity. Here, we show by applying genetic and immunological approaches that the F1 antigen is targeted by peritoneal innate-like B1b cells that generate a prompt T-independent (TI) anti-F1 humoral response. The rapid F1-mediated defense response was diminished in Xid (Btk^m) mice in which B1 cell numbers and activity are limited. Binding of fluorophore-labeled F1 to peritoneal B1b cells was detected as soon as 6 h post vaccination, emphasizing the high speed of this process. By assessing the ability to achieve rapid immunity with monomerized F1, we show that the natural polymeric structure of F1 is essential for (i) rapid association with peritoneal B1b cells, (ii) early induction of anti-F1 titers and (iii) rapid TI immunity in the mouse model of bubonic plague. These observations shed new light on the potential of novel as well as well-known protective antigens in generating rapid immunity and could be implemented in the rational design of future vaccines.

High-resolution epidemic simulation using within-host infection and contact data

BACKGROUND

Recent epidemics have entailed global discussions on revamping epidemic control and prevention approaches. A general consensus is that all sources of data should be embraced to improve epidemic preparedness. As a disease transmission is inherently governed by individual-level responses, pathogen dynamics within infected hosts posit high potentials to inform population-level phenomena. We propose a multiscale approach showing that individual dynamics were able to reproduce population-level observations.

METHODS

Using experimental data, we formulated mathematical models of pathogen infection dynamics from which we simulated mechanistically its transmission parameters. The models were then embedded in our implementation of an age-specific contact network that allows to express individual differences relevant to the transmission processes. This approach is illustrated with an example of Ebola virus (EBOV).

RESULTS

The results showed that a within-host infection model can reproduce EBOV's transmission parameters obtained from population data. At the same time, population age-structure, contact distribution and patterns can be expressed using network generating algorithm. This framework opens a vast opportunity to investigate individual roles of factors involved in the epidemic processes. Estimating EBOV's reproduction number revealed a heterogeneous pattern among age-groups, prompting cautions on estimates unadjusted for contact pattern. Assessments of mass vaccination strategies showed that vaccination conducted in a time window from five months before to one week after the start of an epidemic appeared to strongly reduce epidemic size. Noticeably, compared to a non-intervention scenario, a low critical vaccination coverage of 33% cannot ensure epidemic extinction but could reduce the number of cases by ten to hundred times as well as lessen the case-fatality rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Experimental data on the within-host infection have been able to capture upfront key transmission parameters of a pathogen; the applications of this approach will give us more time to prepare for potential epidemics. The population of interest in epidemic assessments could be modelled with an age-specific contact network without exhaustive amount of data. Further assessments and adaptations for different pathogens and scenarios to explore multilevel aspects in infectious diseases epidemics are underway.