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Castonguay AC, Chowdhury S, Shanta IS, Schrijver B, Schrijver R, Wang S, Soares Magalhães RJ. A Generalizable Prioritization Protocol for Climate-Sensitive Zoonotic Diseases. Trop Med Infect Dis 2024; 9:188. [PMID: 39195626 PMCID: PMC11359478 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed9080188] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2024] [Revised: 08/15/2024] [Accepted: 08/19/2024] [Indexed: 08/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases pose a significant threat to global health and economic security. This threat is further aggravated by amplifying drivers of change, including climate hazards and landscape alterations induced by climate change. Given the complex relationships between climate change and zoonotic disease health outcomes, a structured decision-making process is required to effectively identify pathogens of greatest concern to prioritize prevention and surveillance efforts. Here, we describe a workshop-based expert elicitation process in six steps to prioritize climate-sensitive zoonoses based on a structured approach to defining criteria for climate sensitivity. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process methodology is used to analyze data provided by experts across human, animal, and environmental health sectors accounting for uncertainties at different stages of the prioritization process. We also present a new interactive expert elicitation interface that facilitates data collection and real-time visualization of prioritization results. The novel approach presented in this paper offers a generalized platform for prioritizing climate-sensitive zoonoses at a national or regional level. This allows for a structured decision-making support process when allocating limited financial and personnel resources to enhance preparedness and response to zoonotic diseases amplified by climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam C. Castonguay
- Queensland Alliance for One Health Sciences, School of Veterinary Sciences, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Sukanta Chowdhury
- International Centre for Diarrheal Diseases Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh; (S.C.); (I.S.S.)
| | - Ireen Sultana Shanta
- International Centre for Diarrheal Diseases Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh; (S.C.); (I.S.S.)
| | - Bente Schrijver
- VetEffect, 3723 BG Bilthoven, The Netherlands; (B.S.); (R.S.)
| | - Remco Schrijver
- VetEffect, 3723 BG Bilthoven, The Netherlands; (B.S.); (R.S.)
| | | | - Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães
- Queensland Alliance for One Health Sciences, School of Veterinary Sciences, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
- Children’s Health and Environment Program, UQ Children’s Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia
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Pruszynski CA, Buckner EA, Burkett-Cadena ND, Hugo LE, Leal AL, Caragata EP. Estimation of population age structure, daily survival rates, and potential to support dengue virus transmission for Florida Keys Aedes aegypti via transcriptional profiling. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0012350. [PMID: 39137188 PMCID: PMC11321583 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 08/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Aedes aegypti is an important vector of dengue virus and other arboviruses that affect human health. After being ingested in an infectious bloodmeal, but before being transmitted from mosquito to human, dengue virus must disseminate from the vector midgut into the hemocoel and then the salivary glands. This process, the extrinsic incubation period, typically takes 6-14 days. Since older mosquitoes are responsible for transmission, understanding the age structure of vector populations is important. Transcriptional profiling can facilitate predictions of the age structures of mosquito populations, critical for estimating their potential for pathogen transmission. In this study, we utilized a two-gene transcript model to assess the age structure and daily survival rates of three populations (Key West, Marathon, and Key Largo) of Ae. aegypti from the Florida Keys, United States, where repeated outbreaks of autochthonous dengue transmission have recently occurred. We found that Key Largo had the youngest Ae. aegypti population with the lowest daily survival rate, while Key West had the oldest population and highest survival rate. Across sites, 22.67% of Ae. aegypti females were likely old enough to transmit dengue virus (at least 15 days post emergence). Computed estimates of the daily survival rate (0.8364 using loglinear and 0.8660 using non-linear regression), indicate that dengue vectors in the region experienced relatively low daily mortality. Collectively, our data suggest that Ae. aegypti populations across the Florida Keys harbor large numbers of older individuals, which likely contributes to the high risk of dengue transmission in the area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine A. Pruszynski
- Florida Keys Mosquito Control District, Marathon, Florida, United States of America
- University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Vero Beach, Florida, United States of America
| | - Eva A. Buckner
- University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Vero Beach, Florida, United States of America
| | - Nathan D. Burkett-Cadena
- University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Vero Beach, Florida, United States of America
| | - Leon E. Hugo
- Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Andrea L. Leal
- Florida Keys Mosquito Control District, Marathon, Florida, United States of America
| | - Eric P. Caragata
- University of Florida, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Vero Beach, Florida, United States of America
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3
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Sakaci Z, Talay S, Erguler K, Korkmaz A, Sirin D, Er A, Alten B, Kar S. Interindividual variation among Culex pipiens larvae in terms of thermal response. MEDICAL AND VETERINARY ENTOMOLOGY 2024; 38:205-215. [PMID: 38348507 DOI: 10.1111/mve.12709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024]
Abstract
This study aims to determine the phenological characteristics of thermal responses in the larvae of a Culex pipiens complex field population at the individual level under the influence of thermal regime of its habitat. The analysis is based on a structured population model quantifying the thermal responses of development time and survival under variable conditions and characterising the variety between the larvae (interindividual variety). During the study performed in Turkish Thrace on a monthly basis between May 2021 and June 2022, a total of 3744 larvae were reared as peer larval cohorts and 2330 larvae as siblings in artificial containers to be fully exposed to the natural thermal condition that was recorded hourly. The development process of larvae was monitored daily from egg to adult. As a result, a total of 4788 adult mosquitoes emerged, with a development period ranging from 8 to 52 days in the females and 7 to 50 days in the males, and the survival rate was found to range from 0% to 100%. Both parameters varied by month and individuals, and the variations manifested itself, particularly in the colder periods. The results indicate that the variation between the individuals in terms of thermal response in the larvae of C. pipiens, along with the thermal acclimation ability, appears to be fate determinant in resisting fluctuating thermal regimes, surviving in concurrent climate change and adapting to new conditions with modifications in the seasonal phenology, such as maintaining reproductive dynamics throughout the winter thanks to global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zafer Sakaci
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
- Department of Biology, Balikesir University, Balikesir, Turkey
| | - Sengul Talay
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
| | - Kamil Erguler
- Environmental Predictions Department, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Adil Korkmaz
- Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey
| | - Deniz Sirin
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
| | - Aylin Er
- Department of Biology, Balikesir University, Balikesir, Turkey
| | - Bulent Alten
- Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology, Division of Ecology, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Sirri Kar
- Department of Biology, Tekirdag Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
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Malavige GN, Sjö P, Singh K, Piedagnel JM, Mowbray C, Estani S, Lim SCL, Siquierra AM, Ogg GS, Fraisse L, Ribeiro I. Facing the escalating burden of dengue: Challenges and perspectives. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0002598. [PMID: 38100392 PMCID: PMC10723676 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is the most rapidly emerging mosquito-borne infection and, due to climate change and unplanned urbanization, it is predicted that the global burden of dengue will rise further as the infection spreads to new geographical locations. Dengue-endemic countries are often unable to cope with such increases, with health care facilities becoming overwhelmed during each dengue season. Furthermore, although dengue has been predominantly a childhood illness in the past, it currently mostly affects adults in many countries, with higher incidence of severe disease and mortality rates in pregnant women and in those with comorbidities. As there is currently no specific treatment for dengue and no early biomarker to identify those who will progress to develop vascular leakage, all individuals with dengue are closely monitored in case they need fluid management. Furthermore, diagnosing patients with acute dengue is challenging due to the similarity of clinical symptoms during early illness and poor sensitivity and specificity of point-of-care diagnostic tests. Novel vector control methods, such as the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, have shown promising results by reducing vector density and dengue incidence in clinical trial settings. A new dengue vaccine, TAK-003, had an efficacy of 61.2% against virologically confirmed dengue, 84.1% efficacy against hospitalizations and a 70% efficacy against development of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) at 54 months. While vaccines and mosquito control methods are welcome, they alone are unlikely to fully reduce the burden of dengue, and a treatment for dengue is therefore essential. Several novel antiviral drugs are currently being evaluated along with drugs that inhibit host mediators, such as mast cell products. Although viral proteins such as NS1 contribute to the vascular leak observed in severe dengue, the host immune response to the viral infection also plays a significant role in progression to severe disease. There is an urgent need to discover safe and effective treatments for dengue to prevent disease progression.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gathsaurie Neelika Malavige
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
- MRC Human Immunology Unit, MRC Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Peter Sjö
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Kavita Singh
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Charles Mowbray
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sergio Estani
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Graham S. Ogg
- MRC Human Immunology Unit, MRC Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Laurent Fraisse
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Isabela Ribeiro
- Drugs for Neglected Diseases Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland
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Kamiya T, Alvarez-Iglesias A, Ferguson J, Murphy S, Sofonea MT, Fitz-Simon N. Estimating time-dependent contact: a multi-strain epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 on the island of Ireland. GLOBAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2023; 5:100111. [PMID: 37162815 PMCID: PMC10159265 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2023.100111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Revised: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Mathematical modelling plays a key role in understanding and predicting the epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases. We construct a flexible discrete-time model that incorporates multiple viral strains with different transmissibilities to estimate the changing patterns of human contact that generates new infections. Using a Bayesian approach, we fit the model to longitudinal data on hospitalisation with COVID-19 from the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland during the first year of the pandemic. We describe the estimated change in human contact in the context of government-mandated non-pharmaceutical interventions in the two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland. We take advantage of the fitted model to conduct counterfactual analyses exploring the impact of lockdown timing and introducing a novel, more transmissible variant. We found substantial differences in human contact between the two jurisdictions during periods of varied restriction easing and December holidays. Our counterfactual analyses reveal that implementing lockdowns earlier would have decreased subsequent hospitalisation substantially in most, but not all cases, and that an introduction of a more transmissible variant - without necessarily being more severe - can cause a large impact on the health care burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tsukushi Kamiya
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, Ireland
- Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology (CIRB), Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM, Université PSL, Paris, France
| | | | - John Ferguson
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, Ireland
| | - Shane Murphy
- HRB Clinical Research Facility, University of Galway, Ireland
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6
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Duval P, Antonelli P, Aschan-Leygonie C, Valiente Moro C. Impact of Human Activities on Disease-Spreading Mosquitoes in Urban Areas. J Urban Health 2023; 100:591-611. [PMID: 37277669 PMCID: PMC10322816 DOI: 10.1007/s11524-023-00732-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Urbanization is one of the leading global trends of the twenty-first century that has a significant impact on health. Among health challenges caused by urbanization, the relationship of urbanization between emergence and the spread of mosquito-borne infectious diseases (MBIDs) is a great public health concern. Urbanization processes encompass social, economic, and environmental changes that directly impact the biology of mosquito species. In particular, urbanized areas experience higher temperatures and pollution levels than outlying areas but also favor the development of infrastructures and objects that are favorable to mosquito development. All these modifications may influence mosquito life history traits and their ability to transmit diseases. This review aimed to summarize the impact of urbanization on mosquito spreading in urban areas and the risk associated with the emergence of MBIDs. Moreover, mosquitoes are considered as holobionts, as evidenced by numerous studies highlighting the role of mosquito-microbiota interactions in mosquito biology. Taking into account this new paradigm, this review also represents an initial synthesis on how human-driven transformations impact microbial communities in larval habitats and further interfere with mosquito behavior and life cycle in urban areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pénélope Duval
- Univ Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR Ecologie Microbienne, Bât. André Lwoff, 10 rue Raphaël Dubois, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Pierre Antonelli
- Univ Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR Ecologie Microbienne, Bât. André Lwoff, 10 rue Raphaël Dubois, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Christina Aschan-Leygonie
- University of Lyon, Université Lumière Lyon 2, UMR 5600 CNRS Environnement Ville Société, F-69007, Lyon, France
| | - Claire Valiente Moro
- Univ Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR Ecologie Microbienne, Bât. André Lwoff, 10 rue Raphaël Dubois, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
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7
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Ziegler R, Blanckenhorn WU, Mathis A, Verhulst NO. Temperature preference of sugar- or blood-fed Aedes japonicus mosquitoes under semi-natural conditions. J Therm Biol 2023; 114:103592. [PMID: 37210983 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Revised: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/07/2023] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases pose a major burden on humans and animals. Temperature strongly influences the physiology and life cycle of mosquitoes and also the pathogens they transmit. Thermoregulatory behaviour of mosquitoes has been addressed in a few laboratory studies. Here, we expand such studies by investigating the thermal preference when resting of Aedes japonicus, an invasive and putative vector species of many pathogens, in a semi-field setup during summers in a temperate climate. Blood-fed or sugar-fed Ae. japonicus females were released in the late afternoon in a large outdoor cage containing three resting boxes. The next morning, temperature treatments were applied to the boxes, creating a "cool" (over all experiments around 18 °C), and a "warm" (around 35 °C) microhabitat in addition to an untreated "ambient" (around 26 °C) one. The mosquitoes resting within the three boxes were counted five times, every 2 h between 9h and 17h. The highest proportions of mosquitoes (e.g. up to 21% of blood-fed ones) were found in the cool box while both blood-fed and sugar-fed mosquitoes avoided the warm box. The mean resting temperatures of Ae. japonicus were below the ambient temperatures measured by a nearby meteorological station, and this was more pronounced at higher outdoor temperatures and in blood-fed as compared to sugar-fed mosquitoes. Thus, over all experiments with blood-fed mosquitoes, the calculated average resting temperature was 4 °C below the outdoor temperature. As mosquitoes prefer cooler resting places than temperatures measured by weather stations in summer, models to predict mosquito-borne disease outbreaks need to account for the thermoregulatory behaviour of mosquitoes, especially in the wake of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raphaela Ziegler
- National Centre for Vector Entomology, Institute of Parasitology, Vetsuisse and Medical Faculty, University of Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 266a, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland.
| | - Wolf U Blanckenhorn
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, University of Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland.
| | - Alexander Mathis
- National Centre for Vector Entomology, Institute of Parasitology, Vetsuisse and Medical Faculty, University of Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 266a, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland.
| | - Niels O Verhulst
- National Centre for Vector Entomology, Institute of Parasitology, Vetsuisse and Medical Faculty, University of Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 266a, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland.
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Ernst KC, Walker KR, Castro-Luque AL, Schmidt C, Joy TK, Brophy M, Reyes-Castro P, Díaz-Caravantes RE, Encinas VO, Aguilera A, Gameros M, Cuevas Ruiz RE, Hayden MH, Alvarez G, Monaghan A, Williamson D, Arnbrister J, Gutiérrez EJ, Carrière Y, Riehle MA. Differences in Longevity and Temperature-Driven Extrinsic Incubation Period Correlate with Varying Dengue Risk in the Arizona-Sonora Desert Region. Viruses 2023; 15:851. [PMID: 37112832 PMCID: PMC10146351 DOI: 10.3390/v15040851] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue transmission is determined by a complex set of interactions between the environment, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, dengue viruses, and humans. Emergence in new geographic areas can be unpredictable, with some regions having established mosquito populations for decades without locally acquired transmission. Key factors such as mosquito longevity, temperature-driven extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and vector-human contact can strongly influence the potential for disease transmission. To assess how these factors interact at the edge of the geographical range of dengue virus transmission, we conducted mosquito sampling in multiple urban areas located throughout the Arizona-Sonora desert region during the summer rainy seasons from 2013 to 2015. Mosquito population age structure, reflecting mosquito survivorship, was measured using a combination of parity analysis and relative gene expression of an age-related gene, SCP-1. Bloodmeal analysis was conducted on field collected blood-fed mosquitoes. Site-specific temperature was used to estimate the EIP, and this predicted EIP combined with mosquito age were combined to estimate the abundance of "potential" vectors (i.e., mosquitoes old enough to survive the EIP). Comparisons were made across cities by month and year. The dengue endemic cities Hermosillo and Ciudad Obregon, both in the state of Sonora, Mexico, had higher abundance of potential vectors than non-endemic Nogales, Sonora, Mexico. Interestingly, Tucson, Arizona consistently had a higher estimated abundance of potential vectors than dengue endemic regions of Sonora, Mexico. There were no observed city-level differences in species composition of blood meals. Combined, these data offer insights into the critical factors required for dengue transmission at the ecological edge of the mosquito's range. However, further research is needed to integrate an understanding of how social and additional environmental factors constrain and enhance dengue transmission in emerging regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kacey C. Ernst
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Kathleen R. Walker
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - A Lucia Castro-Luque
- Centro de Estudios en Salud y Sociedad, El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Chris Schmidt
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Teresa K. Joy
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Maureen Brophy
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Pablo Reyes-Castro
- Centro de Estudios en Salud y Sociedad, El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico
| | | | - Veronica Ortiz Encinas
- Veterinary Molecular Biology Laboratory, Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Obregon 85059, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Alfonso Aguilera
- Veterinary Molecular Biology Laboratory, Instituto Tecnológico de Sonora, Obregon 85059, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Mercedes Gameros
- Centro de Salud Urbano de Nogales, Nogales 84100, Sonora, Mexico
| | | | - Mary H. Hayden
- Lyda Hill Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80918, USA
| | - Gerardo Alvarez
- División de Ciencias Biológicas y de la Salud, Universidad de Sonora, Hermosillo 83000, Sonora, Mexico
| | - Andrew Monaghan
- Center for Research Data & Digital Scholarship, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Daniel Williamson
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Josh Arnbrister
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Eileen Jeffrey Gutiérrez
- Divisions of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Innovative Genomics Institute, University of California Berkeley, Berkely, CA 94720, USA
| | - Yves Carrière
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Michael A. Riehle
- Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
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Wagner I, Grigoraki L, Enevoldson P, Clarkson M, Jones S, Hurst JL, Beynon RJ, Ranson H. Rapid identification of mosquito species and age by mass spectrometric analysis. BMC Biol 2023; 21:10. [PMID: 36690979 PMCID: PMC9872345 DOI: 10.1186/s12915-022-01508-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2022] [Accepted: 12/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A rapid, accurate method to identify and to age-grade mosquito populations would be a major advance in predicting the risk of pathogen transmission and evaluating the public health impact of vector control interventions. Whilst other spectrometric or transcriptomic methods show promise, current approaches rely on challenging morphological techniques or simple binary classifications that cannot identify the subset of the population old enough to be infectious. In this study, the ability of rapid evaporative ionisation mass spectrometry (REIMS) to identify the species and age of mosquitoes reared in the laboratory and derived from the wild was investigated. RESULTS The accuracy of REIMS in identifying morphologically identical species of the Anopheles gambiae complex exceeded 97% using principal component/linear discriminant analysis (PC-LDA) and 84% based on random forest analysis. Age separation into 3 different age categories (1 day, 5-6 days, 14-15 days) was achieved with 99% (PC-LDA) and 91% (random forest) accuracy. When tested on wild mosquitoes from the UK, REIMS data could determine the species and age of the specimens with accuracies of 91 and 90% respectively. CONCLUSIONS The accuracy of REIMS to resolve the species and age of Anopheles mosquitoes is comparable to that achieved by infrared spectroscopy approaches. The processing time and ease of use represent significant advantages over current, dissection-based methods. Importantly, the accuracy was maintained when using wild mosquitoes reared under differing environmental conditions, and when mosquitoes were stored frozen or desiccated. This high throughput approach thus has potential to conduct rapid, real-time monitoring of vector populations, providing entomological evidence of the impact of alternative interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Iris Wagner
- Centre for Proteome Research, Institute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 7ZB UK
| | - Linda Grigoraki
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA UK
| | - Peter Enevoldson
- Walton Centre NHS Foundation Trust, Lower Lane, Liverpool, L9 7LJ UK
- Department of Livestock and One Health, University of Liverpool, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Leahurst Campus, Neston, CH64 7TE UK
| | - Michael Clarkson
- Department of Livestock and One Health, University of Liverpool, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Leahurst Campus, Neston, CH64 7TE UK
| | - Sam Jones
- International Pheromone Systems Ltd, Evolution House, Long Acres Road, Clayhill Industrial Estate, Neston, CH64 3RL Cheshire UK
| | - Jane L. Hurst
- Mammalian Behaviour and Evolution Group, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Neston, CH64 7TE UK
| | - Robert J. Beynon
- Centre for Proteome Research, Institute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 7ZB UK
| | - Hilary Ranson
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA UK
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10
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Gutiérrez EHJ, Riehle MA, Walker KR, Ernst KC, Davidowitz G. Using body size as an indicator for age structure in field populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:483. [PMID: 36550576 PMCID: PMC9773510 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05605-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 10/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Aedes aegypti mosquito is a vector of several viruses including dengue, chikungunya, zika, and yellow fever. Vector surveillance and control are the primary methods used for the control and prevention of disease transmission; however, public health institutions largely rely on measures of population abundance as a trigger for initiating control activities. Previous research found evidence that at the northern edge of Ae. aegypti's geographic range, survival, rather than abundance, is likely to be the factor limiting disease transmission. In this study, we sought to test the utility of using body size as an entomological index to surveil changes in the age structure of field-collected female Aedes aegypti. METHODS We collected female Ae. aegypti mosquitoes using BG sentinel traps in three cities at the northern edge of their geographic range. Collections took place during their active season over the course of 3 years. Female wing size was measured as an estimate of body size, and reproductive status was characterized by examining ovary tracheation. Chronological age was determined by measuring transcript abundance of an age-dependent gene. These data were then tested with female abundance at each site and weather data from the estimated larval development period and adulthood (1 week prior to capture). Two sources of weather data were tested to determine which was more appropriate for evaluating impacts on mosquito physiology. All variables were then used to parameterize structural equation models to predict age. RESULTS In comparing city-specific NOAA weather data and site-specific data from HOBO remote temperature and humidity loggers, we found that HOBO data were more tightly associated with body size. This information is useful for justifying the cost of more precise weather monitoring when studying intra-population heterogeneity of eco-physiological factors. We found that body size itself was not significantly associated with age. Of all the variables measured, we found that best fitting model for age included temperature during development, body size, female abundance, and relative humidity in the 1 week prior to capture . The strength of models improved drastically when testing one city at a time, with Hermosillo (the only study city with seasonal dengue transmission) having the best fitting model for age. Despite our finding that there was a bias in the body size of mosquitoes collected alive from the BG sentinel traps that favored large females, there was still sufficient variation in the size of females collected alive to show that inclusion of this entomological indicator improved the predictive capacity of our models. CONCLUSIONS Inclusion of body size data increased the strength of weather-based models for age. Importantly, we found that variation in age was greater within cities than between cities, suggesting that modeling of age must be made on a city-by-city basis. These results contribute to efforts to use weather forecasts to predict changes in the probability of disease transmission by mosquito vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eileen H. Jeffrey Gutiérrez
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA ,grid.47840.3f0000 0001 2181 7878Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 2121 Berkeley Way, 94720-7360 Berkeley, USA
| | - M. A. Riehle
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA
| | - K. R. Walker
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA
| | - K. C. Ernst
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XDept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave., PO Box 245210, Tucson, AZ 85724 USA
| | - G. Davidowitz
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA
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Christofferson RC, Wearing HJ, Turner EA, Walsh CS, Salje H, Tran-Kiem C, Cauchemez S. How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0010818. [PMID: 36194617 PMCID: PMC9565401 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2021] [Revised: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
In models of mosquito-borne transmission, the mosquito biting rate is an influential parameter, and understanding the heterogeneity of the process of biting is important, as biting is usually assumed to be relatively homogeneous across individuals, with time-between-bites described by an exponentially distributed process. However, these assumptions have not been addressed through laboratory experimentation. We experimentally investigated the daily biting habits of Ae. aegypti at three temperatures (24°C, 28°C, and 32°C) and determined that there was individual heterogeneity in biting habits (number of bites, timing of bites, etc.). We further explored the consequences of biting heterogeneity using an individual-based model designed to examine whether a particular biting profile determines whether a mosquito is more or less likely to 1) become exposed given a single index case of dengue (DENV) and 2) transmit to a susceptible human individual. Our experimental results indicate that there is heterogeneity among individuals and among temperature treatments. We further show that this results in altered probabilities of transmission of DENV to and from individual mosquitoes based on biting profiles. While current model representation of biting may work under some conditions, it might not uniformly be the best fit for this process. Our data also confirm that biting is a non-monotonic process with temperatures around 28°C being optimum.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca C. Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
- Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Helen J. Wearing
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Erik A. Turner
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Christine S. Walsh
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France
| | - Cécile Tran-Kiem
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France
- Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France
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12
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Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1009540. [PMID: 36121847 PMCID: PMC9522293 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009540] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2021] [Revised: 09/29/2022] [Accepted: 08/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models of vector-borne infections, including malaria, often assume age-independent mortality rates of vectors, despite evidence that many insects senesce. In this study we present survival data on insecticide-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l. from experiments in Côte d’Ivoire. We fit a constant mortality function and two age-dependent functions (logistic and Gompertz) to the data from mosquitoes exposed (treated) and not exposed (control) to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), to establish biologically realistic survival functions. This enables us to explore the effects of insecticide exposure on mosquito mortality rates, and the extent to which insecticide resistance might impact the effectiveness of ITNs. We investigate this by calculating the expected number of infectious bites a mosquito will take in its lifetime, and by extension the vectorial capacity. Our results show that the predicted vectorial capacity is substantially lower in mosquitoes exposed to ITNs, despite the mosquitoes in the experiment being highly insecticide-resistant. The more realistic age-dependent functions provide a better fit to the experimental data compared to a constant mortality function and, hence, influence the predicted impact of ITNs on malaria transmission potential. In models with age-independent mortality, there is a great reduction for the vectorial capacity under exposure compared to no exposure. However, the two age-dependent functions predicted an even larger reduction due to exposure, highlighting the impact of incorporating age in the mortality rates. These results further show that multiple exposures to ITNs had a considerable effect on the vectorial capacity. Overall, the study highlights the importance of including age dependency in mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission and in fully understanding the impact of interventions. Interventions against malaria are most commonly targeted on the adult mosquitoes, which transmit the infection from person to person. One of the most important interventions are bed-nets, treated with insecticides. Unfortunately, extensive exposure of mosquitoes to insecticide has led to widespread evolution of insecticide resistance, which might threaten control strategies. Piecing together the overall impact of resistance on the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets is complex, but can be informed by the use of mathematical models. However, there are some assumptions that the models frequently use which are not realistic in terms of the mosquito biology. In this paper, we formulate a model that includes age-dependent mortality rates, an important parameter in vector control since control strategies most commonly aim to reduce the lifespan of the mosquitoes. By using novel data collected using field-derived insecticide-resistant mosquitoes, we explore the effects that the presence of insecticides on nets have on the mortality rates, as well as the difference incorporating age dependency in the model has on the results. We find that including age-dependent mortality greatly alters the anticipated effects of insecticide-treated nets on mosquito transmission potential, and that ignoring this realism potentially overestimates the negative impact of insecticide resistance.
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Molina-Guzmán LP, Gutiérrez-Builes LA, Ríos-Osorio LA. Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review. Vet World 2022; 15:1975-1989. [PMID: 36313837 PMCID: PMC9615510 DOI: 10.14202/vetworld.2022.1975-1989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background and Aim: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) constitute a global problem for humans and animals. Knowledge related to the spatial distribution of various species of vectors and their relationship with the environment where they develop is essential to understand the current risk of VBDs and for planning surveillance and control strategies in the face of future threats. This study aimed to identify models, variables, and factors that may influence the emergence and resurgence of VBDs and how these factors can affect spatial local and global distribution patterns.
Materials and Methods: A systematic review was designed based on identification, screening, selection, and inclusion described in the research protocols according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guide. A literature search was performed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and SciELO using the following search strategy: Article type: Original research, Language: English, Publishing period: 2010–2020, Search terms: Spatial analysis, spatial models, VBDs, climate, ecologic, life cycle, climate variability, vector-borne, vector, zoonoses, species distribution model, and niche model used in different combinations with "AND" and "OR."
Results: The complexity of the interactions between climate, biotic/abiotic variables, and non-climate factors vary considerably depending on the type of disease and the particular location. VBDs are among the most studied types of illnesses related to climate and environmental aspects due to their high disease burden, extended presence in tropical and subtropical areas, and high susceptibility to climate and environment variations.
Conclusion: It is difficult to generalize our knowledge of VBDs from a geospatial point of view, mainly because every case is inherently independent in variable selection, geographic coverage, and temporal extension. It can be inferred from predictions that as global temperatures increase, so will the potential trend toward extreme events. Consequently, it will become a public health priority to determine the role of climate and environmental variations in the incidence of infectious diseases. Our analysis of the information, as conducted in this work, extends the review beyond individual cases to generate a series of relevant observations applicable to different models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Licet Paola Molina-Guzmán
- Grupo Biología de Sistemas, Escuela de Ciencias de la Salud, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellín, Colombia; Grupo de Investigación Salud y Sostenibilidad, Escuela de Microbiología, Universidad de Antioquia UdeA, Calle 70 No. 52-21, Medellin - Colombia
| | - Lina A. Gutiérrez-Builes
- Grupo Biología de Sistemas, Escuela de Ciencias de la Salud, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Leonardo A. Ríos-Osorio
- Grupo de Investigación Salud y Sostenibilidad, Escuela de Microbiología, Universidad de Antioquia UdeA, Calle 70 No. 52-21, Medellin - Colombia
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Ziegler R, Blanckenhorn WU, Mathis A, Verhulst NO. Video analysis of the locomotory behaviour of Aedes aegypti and Ae. japonicus mosquitoes under different temperature regimes in a laboratory setting. J Therm Biol 2022; 105:103205. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103205] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Revised: 01/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2022] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
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15
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Ong J, Soh S, Ho SH, Seah A, Dickens BS, Tan KW, Koo JR, Cook AR, Richards DR, Gaw LYF, Ng LC, Lim JT. Fine-scale estimation of effective reproduction numbers for dengue surveillance. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1009791. [PMID: 35051176 PMCID: PMC8836367 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009791] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 12/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The effective reproduction number Rt is an epidemiological quantity that provides an instantaneous measure of transmission potential of an infectious disease. While dengue is an increasingly important vector-borne disease, few have used Rt as a measure to inform public health operations and policy for dengue. This study demonstrates the utility of Rt for real time dengue surveillance. Using nationally representative, geo-located dengue case data from Singapore over 2010-2020, we estimated Rt by modifying methods from Bayesian (EpiEstim) and filtering (EpiFilter) approaches, at both the national and local levels. We conducted model assessment of Rt from each proposed method and determined exogenous temporal and spatial drivers for Rt in relation to a wide range of environmental and anthropogenic factors. At the national level, both methods achieved satisfactory model performance (R2EpiEstim = 0.95, R2EpiFilter = 0.97), but disparities in performance were large at finer spatial scales when case counts are low (MASE EpiEstim = 1.23, MASEEpiFilter = 0.59). Impervious surfaces and vegetation with structure dominated by human management (without tree canopy) were positively associated with increased transmission intensity. Vegetation with structure dominated by human management (with tree canopy), on the other hand, was associated with lower dengue transmission intensity. We showed that dengue outbreaks were preceded by sustained periods of high transmissibility, demonstrating the potential of Rt as a dengue surveillance tool for detecting large rises in dengue cases. Real time estimation of Rt at the fine scale can assist public health agencies in identifying high transmission risk areas and facilitating localised outbreak preparedness and response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Janet Ong
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore
| | - Stacy Soh
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore
| | - Soon Hoe Ho
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore
| | - Annabel Seah
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore
| | - Borame Sue Dickens
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ken Wei Tan
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Joel Ruihan Koo
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Alex R. Cook
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Leon Yan-Feng Gaw
- School of Design and Environment, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Lee Ching Ng
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore
- School of Biological Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
| | - Jue Tao Lim
- Environmental Health Institute, National Environment Agency, Singapore
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore
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16
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Murrieta RA, Garcia-Luna SM, Murrieta DJ, Halladay G, Young MC, Fauver JR, Gendernalik A, Weger-Lucarelli J, Rückert C, Ebel GD. Impact of extrinsic incubation temperature on natural selection during Zika virus infection of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. PLoS Pathog 2021; 17:e1009433. [PMID: 34752502 PMCID: PMC8629396 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1009433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2021] [Revised: 11/29/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) require replication across a wide range of temperatures to perpetuate. While vertebrate hosts tend to maintain temperatures of approximately 37°C—40°C, arthropods are subject to ambient temperatures which can have a daily fluctuation of > 10°C. Temperatures impact vector competence, extrinsic incubation period, and mosquito survival unimodally, with optimal conditions occurring at some intermediate temperature. In addition, the mean and range of daily temperature fluctuations influence arbovirus perpetuation and vector competence. The impact of temperature on arbovirus genetic diversity during systemic mosquito infection, however, is poorly understood. Therefore, we determined how constant extrinsic incubation temperatures of 25°C, 28°C, 32°C, and 35°C control Zika virus (ZIKV) vector competence and population dynamics within Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. We also examined fluctuating temperatures which better mimic field conditions in the tropics. We found that vector competence varied in a unimodal manner for constant temperatures peaking between 28°C and 32°C for both Aedes species. Transmission peaked at 10 days post-infection for Aedes aegypti and 14 days for Aedes albopictus. Conversely, fluctuating temperature decreased vector competence. Using RNA-seq to characterize ZIKV population structure, we identified that temperature alters the selective environment in unexpected ways. During mosquito infection, constant temperatures more often elicited positive selection whereas fluctuating temperatures led to strong purifying selection in both Aedes species. These findings demonstrate that temperature has multiple impacts on ZIKV biology, including major effects on the selective environment within mosquitoes. Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) have emerged in recent decades due to complex factors that include increases in international travel and trade, the breakdown of public health infrastructure, land use changes, and many others. Climate change also has the potential to shift the geographical ranges of arthropod vectors, consequently increasing the global risk of arbovirus infection. Changing temperatures may alter the virus-host interaction, ultimately resulting in the emergence of new viruses and virus genotypes in new areas. Therefore, we sought to characterize how temperature (both constant and fluctuating) alters the ability of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus to transmit Zika virus, and how it influences virus populations within mosquitoes. We found that intermediate temperatures maximize virus transmission compared to more extreme and fluctuating temperatures. Constant temperatures increased positive selection on virus genomes, while fluctuating temperatures strengthened purifying selection. Our studies provide evidence that in addition to altering vector competence, temperature significantly influences natural selection within mosquitoes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reyes A. Murrieta
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Selene M. Garcia-Luna
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Deedra J. Murrieta
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Gareth Halladay
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Michael C. Young
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Joseph R. Fauver
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- Yale School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Laboratory of Epidemiology of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Alex Gendernalik
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
| | - James Weger-Lucarelli
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- Department of Biomedical Sciences & Pathobiology, Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Claudia Rückert
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, College of Agriculture, Biotechnology & Natural Resources, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, United States of America
| | - Gregory D. Ebel
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions. CLIMATE 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/cli9110159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.
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Rubel M, Anwar C, Irfanuddin I, Irsan C, Amin R, Ghiffari A. Impact of Climate Variability and Incidence on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Palembang City, South Sumatra, Indonesia. Open Access Maced J Med Sci 2021. [DOI: 10.3889/oamjms.2021.6853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a dengue virus infection transmitted by Aedes spp. Climate has a profound influence on mosquito breeding. Palembang has the highest rate of DHF in South Sumatra. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the components of climate factors and the incidence of DHF in Palembang. This study was cross-sectional, with an observational analytic approach. The Palembang City Health Office compiled data on DHF incidence rates from 2016 to 2020. Climatic factor data (rainfall, number of rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun irradiance) were collected from the Climatology Station Class I Palembang - BMKG Station and Task Force that same year. The Spearman test was used to conduct the correlation test. Between 2016 and 2020, there were 3,398 DHF patients. From January to May, DHF increased. There was a significant correlation between rainfall (r = 0.320; p = 0.005), number of rainy days (r = 0.295; p = 0.020), temperature (r = 0.371; p = 0.040), and humidity (r = 0.221; p = 0.024), wind speed (r= 0.76; p = 0.492), and sunlight (r = 0.008; p = 0.865). Rainfall, the number of rainy days, and temperature were three climatic factors determining the increase in dengue incidence in Palembang.
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The Effect of Fluctuating Incubation Temperatures on West Nile Virus Infection in Culex Mosquitoes. Viruses 2021; 13:v13091822. [PMID: 34578403 PMCID: PMC8472872 DOI: 10.3390/v13091822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Revised: 09/10/2021] [Accepted: 09/11/2021] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Temperature plays a significant role in the vector competence, extrinsic incubation period, and intensity of infection of arboviruses within mosquito vectors. Most laboratory infection studies use static incubation temperatures that may not accurately reflect daily temperature ranges (DTR) to which mosquitoes are exposed. This could potentially compromise the application of results to real world scenarios. We evaluated the effect of fluctuating DTR versus static temperature treatments on the infection, dissemination, and transmission rates and viral titers of Culex tarsalis and Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes for West Nile virus. Two DTR regimens were tested including an 11 and 15 °C range, both fluctuating around an average temperature of 28 °C. Overall, no significant differences were found between DTR and static treatments for infection, dissemination, or transmission rates for either species. However, significant treatment differences were identified for both Cx. tarsalis and Cx. quinquefasciatus viral titers. These effects were species-specific and most prominent later in the infection. These results indicate that future studies on WNV infections in Culex mosquitoes should consider employing realistic DTRs to reflect interactions most accurately between the virus, vector, and environment.
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Watts MJ, Sarto i Monteys V, Mortyn PG, Kotsila P. The rise of West Nile Virus in Southern and Southeastern Europe: A spatial-temporal analysis investigating the combined effects of climate, land use and economic changes. One Health 2021; 13:100315. [PMID: 34485672 PMCID: PMC8408625 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Revised: 08/18/2021] [Accepted: 08/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
West Nile Virus (WNV) has recently emerged as a major public health concern in Europe; its recent expansion also coincided with some remarkable socio-economic and environmental changes, including an economic crisis and some of the warmest temperatures on record. Here we empirically investigate the drivers of this phenomenon at a European wide scale by constructing and analyzing a unique spatial–temporal data-set, that includes data on climate, land-use, the economy, and government spending on environmental related sectors. Drivers and risk factors of WNV were identified by building a conceptual framework, and relationships were tested using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which could capture complex non-linear relationships and also account for spatial and temporal auto-correlation. Some of the key risk factors identified in our conceptual framework, such as a higher percentage of wetlands and arable land, climate factors (higher summer rainfall and higher summer temperatures) were positive predictors of WNV infections. Interestingly, winter temperatures of between 2 °C and 6 °C were among some of the strongest predictors of annual WNV infections; one possible explanation for this result is that successful overwintering of infected adult mosquitoes (likely Culex pipiens) is key to the intensity of outbreaks for a given year. Furthermore, lower surface water extent over the summer is also associated with more intense outbreaks, suggesting that drought, which is known to induce positive changes in WNV prevalence in mosquitoes, is also contributing to the upward trend in WNV cases in affected regions. Our indicators representing the economic crisis were also strong predictors of WNV infections, suggesting there is an association between austerity and cuts to key sectors, which could have benefited vector species and the virus during this crucial period. These results, taken in the context of recent winter warming due to climate change, and more frequent droughts, may offer an explanation of why the virus has become so prevalent in Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J. Watts
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Corresponding author.
| | - Victor Sarto i Monteys
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Departament d’Agricultura, Ramaderia, Pesca, Alimentació i Medi Natural, Generalitat de Catalunya, Avinguda Meridiana, Barcelona, Spain
| | - P. Graham Mortyn
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Department of Geography, Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Panagiota Kotsila
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
- Barcelona Laboratory for Urban Environmental Justice and Sustainability (BCNEJ), Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain
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21
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Ware-Gilmore F, Sgrò CM, Xi Z, Dutra HLC, Jones MJ, Shea K, Hall MD, Thomas MB, McGraw EA. Microbes increase thermal sensitivity in the mosquito Aedes aegypti, with the potential to change disease distributions. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009548. [PMID: 34292940 PMCID: PMC8297775 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009548] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 06/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of many disease-causing viruses, including dengue (DENV), Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. As consequences of climate change, we expect an increase in both global mean temperatures and extreme climatic events. When temperatures fluctuate, mosquito vectors will be increasingly exposed to temperatures beyond their upper thermal limits. Here, we examine how DENV infection alters Ae. aegypti thermotolerance by using a high-throughput physiological 'knockdown' assay modeled on studies in Drosophila. Such laboratory measures of thermal tolerance have previously been shown to accurately predict an insect's distribution in the field. We show that DENV infection increases thermal sensitivity, an effect that may ultimately limit the geographic range of the virus. We also show that the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia pipientis, which is currently being released globally as a biological control agent, has a similar impact on thermal sensitivity in Ae. aegypti. Surprisingly, in the coinfected state, Wolbachia did not provide protection against DENV-associated effects on thermal tolerance, nor were the effects of the two infections additive. The latter suggests that the microbes may act by similar means, potentially through activation of shared immune pathways or energetic tradeoffs. Models predicting future ranges of both virus transmission and Wolbachia's efficacy following field release may wish to consider the effects these microbes have on host survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fhallon Ware-Gilmore
- Department of Entomology & The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Carla M. Sgrò
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Zhiyong Xi
- Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Heverton L. C. Dutra
- Department of Entomology & The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Matthew J. Jones
- Department of Entomology & The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Katriona Shea
- Department of Biology & The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Matthew D. Hall
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Matthew B. Thomas
- Department of Entomology & The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth A. McGraw
- Department of Entomology & The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
- Department of Biology & The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
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22
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Abellana DP. Modelling the interdependent relationships among epidemic antecedents using fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches. OPEN COMPUTER SCIENCE 2021. [DOI: 10.1515/comp-2020-0213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Abstract
With the high incidence of the dengue epidemic in developing countries, it is crucial to understand its dynamics from a holistic perspective. This paper analyzes different types of antecedents from a cybernetics perspective using a structural modelling approach. The novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it analyzes antecedents that may be social, institutional, environmental, or economic in nature. Since this type of study has not been done in the context of the dengue epidemic modelling, this paper offers a fresh perspective on this topic. Second, the paper pioneers the use of fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches for the modelling of epidemic antecedents. As such, the paper has provided an avenue for the cross-fertilization of knowledge between scholars working in soft computing and epidemiological modelling domains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dharyll Prince Abellana
- Department of Computer Science , University of the Philippines – Cebu , Cebu City , Cebu , Philippines
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23
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Esan V, Elanchezhiyan C, Mahboob S, Al-Ghanim KA, Al-Misned F, Ahmed Z, Elumalai K, Krishnappa K, Marimuthu G. Toxicity of Trewia nudiflora-mediated silver nanoparticles on mosquito larvae and non-target aquatic fauna. TOXIN REV 2021. [DOI: 10.1080/15569543.2020.1864648] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Venkattan Esan
- Unit of Vector Control, Phytochemistry and Nanotechnology, Department of Zoology, Annamalai University, Annamalainagar, India
| | - Chakkaravarthy Elanchezhiyan
- Unit of Vector Control, Phytochemistry and Nanotechnology, Department of Zoology, Annamalai University, Annamalainagar, India
| | - Shahid Mahboob
- Department of Zoology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Khalid A. Al-Ghanim
- Department of Zoology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Fahad Al-Misned
- Department of Zoology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Zubair Ahmed
- Department of Zoology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Kuppusamy Elumalai
- Department of Advanced Zoology & Biotechnology, Government Arts College for Men (Autonomous), Chennai, India
| | - Kaliyamoorthy Krishnappa
- Department of Zoology and Wildlife Biology, A.V.C. College (Autonomous), Mannampandal, Mayiladuthurai, India
| | - Govindarajan Marimuthu
- Unit of Vector Control, Phytochemistry and Nanotechnology, Department of Zoology, Annamalai University, Annamalainagar, India
- Unit of Natural Products and Nanotechnology, Department of Zoology, Government College for Women (Autonomous), Kumbakonam, India
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24
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The importance of density dependence in juvenile mosquito development and survival: A model-based investigation. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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25
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Occhibove F, Chapman DS, Mastin AJ, Parnell SSR, Agstner B, Mato-Amboage R, Jones G, Dunn M, Pollard CRJ, Robinson JS, Marzano M, Davies AL, White RM, Fearne A, White SM. Eco-Epidemiological Uncertainties of Emerging Plant Diseases: The Challenge of Predicting Xylella fastidiosa Dynamics in Novel Environments. PHYTOPATHOLOGY 2020; 110:1740-1750. [PMID: 32954988 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-03-20-0098-rvw] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
In order to prevent and control the emergence of biosecurity threats such as vector-borne diseases of plants, it is vital to understand drivers of entry, establishment, and spatiotemporal spread, as well as the form, timing, and effectiveness of disease management strategies. An inherent challenge for policy in combatting emerging disease is the uncertainty associated with intervention planning in areas not yet affected, based on models and data from current outbreaks. Following the recent high-profile emergence of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa in a number of European countries, we review the most pertinent epidemiological uncertainties concerning the dynamics of this bacterium in novel environments. To reduce the considerable ecological and socio-economic impacts of these outbreaks, eco-epidemiological research in a broader range of environmental conditions needs to be conducted and used to inform policy to enhance disease risk assessment, and support successful policy-making decisions. By characterizing infection pathways, we can highlight the uncertainties that surround our knowledge of this disease, drawing attention to how these are amplified when trying to predict and manage outbreaks in currently unaffected locations. To help guide future research and decision-making processes, we invited experts in different fields of plant pathology to identify data to prioritize when developing pest risk assessments. Our analysis revealed that epidemiological uncertainty is mainly driven by the large variety of hosts, vectors, and bacterial strains, leading to a range of different epidemiological characteristics further magnified by novel environmental conditions. These results offer new insights on how eco-epidemiological analyses can enhance understanding of plant disease spread and support management recommendations.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Daniel S Chapman
- Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, U.K
| | - Alexander J Mastin
- School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Manchester M5 4WX, U.K
| | - Stephen S R Parnell
- School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Manchester M5 4WX, U.K
| | | | | | - Glyn Jones
- FERA Science Ltd., Sand Hutton, York YO41 1LZ, U.K
| | - Michael Dunn
- Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin EH25 9SY, U.K
| | | | - James S Robinson
- Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin EH25 9SY, U.K
| | - Mariella Marzano
- Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin EH25 9SY, U.K
| | - Althea L Davies
- School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews KY16 9AL, U.K
| | - Rehema M White
- School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews KY16 9AL, U.K
| | - Andrew Fearne
- Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K
| | - Steven M White
- U.K. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, U.K
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26
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Cecilia H, Métras R, Fall AG, Lo MM, Lancelot R, Ezanno P. It's risky to wander in September: Modelling the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever in a Sahelian setting. Epidemics 2020; 33:100409. [PMID: 33137548 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 09/16/2020] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Estimating the epidemic potential of vector-borne diseases, along with the relative contribution of underlying mechanisms, is crucial for animal and human health worldwide. In West African Sahel, several outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) have occurred over the last decades, but uncertainty remains about the conditions necessary to trigger these outbreaks. We use the basic reproduction number (R0) as a measure of RVF epidemic potential in northern Senegal, and map its value in two distinct ecosystems, namely the Ferlo and the Senegal River delta and valley. We consider three consecutive rainy seasons (July-November 2014, 2015 and 2016) and account for several vector and animal species. We parametrize our model with estimates of Aedes vexans arabiensis, Culex poicilipes, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, cattle, sheep and goat abundances. The impact of RVF virus introduction is assessed every week over northern Senegal. We highlight September as the period of highest epidemic potential in northern Senegal, resulting from distinct dynamics in the two study areas. Spatially, in the seasonal environment of the Ferlo, we observe that high-risk locations vary between years. We show that decreased vector densities do not greatly reduce R0 and that cattle immunity has a greater impact on reducing transmission than small ruminant immunity. The host preferences of vectors and the temperature-dependent time interval between their blood meals are crucial parameters needing further biological investigations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hélène Cecilia
- INRAE, Oniris, BIOEPAR, 44300, Nantes, France; UMR ASTRE, CIRAD, Montpellier, France; ASTRE, Montpellier University, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.
| | - Raphaëlle Métras
- Inserm, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP), F-75012, Paris, France.
| | - Assane Gueye Fall
- Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles/Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, BP 2057, Dakar-Hann, Senegal.
| | - Modou Moustapha Lo
- Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles/Laboratoire National de l'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires, BP 2057, Dakar-Hann, Senegal.
| | - Renaud Lancelot
- UMR ASTRE, CIRAD, Montpellier, France; ASTRE, Montpellier University, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier, France.
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27
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Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Climate change represents a major existential threat facing the global community, and it has already begun to affect human health in a multitude of ways. This review highlights and discusses the implications that climate change has already had and is expected to have for inpatient dermatologists. RECENT FINDINGS There are a variety of conditions affected by climate changes. The distribution and frequencies of infectious diseases and their vectors are changing in line with variations in climate conditions. Increased temperatures have already been associated with exacerbation of existing skin conditions, such as atopic dermatitis, and recent evidence suggests that higher temperatures will also magnify the effects of harmful ultraviolet radiation. Extreme weather events that result from climate change are followed by an array of dermatologic conditions that may be unusual for the given location. Inpatient dermatologists should be prepared to manage these potentially unfamiliar dermatologic consequences of climate change. SUMMARY Climate change will have widespread effects on the medical field, and inpatient dermatologists will be faced with their own unique set of challenges and practice variations. Practitioners should be familiar with the ongoing and predicted effects of climate change in their locations so that they can readily identify and treat associated conditions, and they should adjust their practice to reduce their carbon footprint and serve as a model for patients to do the same.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. Fathy
- Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA USA
| | - Misha Rosenbach
- Department of Dermatology, University of Pennsylvania, 7th Floor Perelman Center for Advanced Medicine, South Pavilion, 3400 Civic Center Blvd, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
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28
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Cator LJ, Johnson LR, Mordecai EA, Moustaid FE, Smallwood TRC, LaDeau SL, Johansson MA, Hudson PJ, Boots M, Thomas MB, Power AG, Pawar S. The Role of Vector Trait Variation in Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics. Front Ecol Evol 2020; 8:189. [PMID: 32775339 PMCID: PMC7409824 DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Many important endemic and emerging diseases are transmitted by vectors that are biting arthropods. The functional traits of vectors can affect pathogen transmission rates directly and also through their effect on vector population dynamics. Increasing empirical evidence shows that vector traits vary significantly across individuals, populations, and environmental conditions, and at time scales relevant to disease transmission dynamics. Here, we review empirical evidence for variation in vector traits and how this trait variation is currently incorporated into mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission. We argue that mechanistically incorporating trait variation into these models, by explicitly capturing its effects on vector fitness and abundance, can improve the reliability of their predictions in a changing world. We provide a conceptual framework for incorporating trait variation into vector-borne disease transmission models, and highlight key empirical and theoretical challenges. This framework provides a means to conceptualize how traits can be incorporated in vector borne disease systems, and identifies key areas in which trait variation can be explored. Determining when and to what extent it is important to incorporate trait variation into vector borne disease models remains an important, outstanding question.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauren J. Cator
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
| | - Leah R. Johnson
- Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
| | - Erin A. Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Fadoua El Moustaid
- Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
- BresMed America Inc, Las Vegas, NV, United States
| | | | - Shannon L. LaDeau
- The Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, United States
| | | | - Peter J. Hudson
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
| | - Michael Boots
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
| | - Matthew B. Thomas
- Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
| | - Alison G. Power
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
| | - Samraat Pawar
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
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