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Zimmermann IR, Alves Fernandes RR, Santos da Costa MG, Pinto M, Peixoto HM. Simulation-based economic evaluation of the Wolbachia method in Brazil: a cost-effective strategy for dengue control. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2024; 35:100783. [PMID: 38911346 PMCID: PMC11190723 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100783] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2023] [Revised: 05/01/2024] [Accepted: 05/10/2024] [Indexed: 06/25/2024]
Abstract
Background Dengue virus (DENV) is an arbovirus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, which can cause severe conditions such as hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. These conditions are associated with adverse social, clinical, and economic consequences in Brazil. Herein, the Wolbachia mosquito replacement method is a promising dengue control strategy. Methods We estimated the economic impact of implementing the Wolbachia mosquito replacement method in seven Brazilian cities. A mathematical microsimulation model tracked nearly 23 million inhabitants over a 20-year period, considering the transitions between five different health states (susceptible, inapparent, outpatient, hospitalised and death). Direct costs included local dengue control programs, Wolbachia implementation and dengue care. Indirect costs related to death and productivity loss, as well as disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) averted were also considered. Findings Without Wolbachia, the model projected 1,762,688 reported dengue cases over 20 years. Implementing the Wolbachia method would avert at least 1,295,566 dengue cases, resulting in lower costs and greater effectiveness in all simulated cities. On average, for every 1000 inhabitants followed for 20 years, the Wolbachia method yielded a cost difference of USD 538,233.68 (BRL 2,691,168.40) and averted 5.56 DALYs. Net monetary benefits (NMB) were positive in all seven cities, ranging from USD 110.72 (BRL 553.59) to USD 1399.19 (BRL 6995.95) per inhabitant. Alternative scenarios have also shown a favourable return on investment with a positive benefit-cost ratio (BCR). Interpretation Wolbachia is likely a cost-effective strategy in the Brazilian context, consistent with international studies. Sensitivity analysis and alternative scenarios confirmed the robustness of the results. Funding This study was funded by the Wellcome Trust under a grant (224459/Z/21/Z).
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Márcia Pinto
- Fernandes Figueira Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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2
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Zambrana JV, Hasund CM, Aogo RA, Bos S, Arguello S, Gonzalez K, Collado D, Miranda T, Kuan G, Gordon A, Balmaseda A, Katzelnick LC, Harris E. Primary exposure to Zika virus is linked with increased risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4, but not 1. Sci Transl Med 2024; 16:eadn2199. [PMID: 38809964 DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.adn2199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2023] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024]
Abstract
Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on preexisting antibodies and infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with increased risk of DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by DENV1-4 in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced dengue cases caused by DENV1 (n = 139), DENV4 (n = 133), DENV3 (n = 54), DENV2 (n = 9), or an undetermined serotype (n = 39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since last infection, and year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared with flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection was associated with increased risk of disease caused by DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48 to 4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34 to 6.27), but not DENV1 infection. Primary DENV infection or DENV followed by ZIKV infection was also associated with increased risk of DENV4 disease. We reanalyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus immunity and antibody titer had distinct associations with disease risk depending on incoming serotype. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, is associated with increased risk of disease with certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- José Victor Zambrana
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua 14006, Nicaragua
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Chloe M Hasund
- Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892-3203, USA
| | - Rosemary A Aogo
- Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892-3203, USA
| | - Sandra Bos
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-3370, USA
| | - Sonia Arguello
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua 14006, Nicaragua
| | - Karla Gonzalez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua 14006, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministerio de Salud, Managua 14062, Nicaragua
| | | | | | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua 14006, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministerio de Salud, Managua 12037, Nicaragua
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua 14006, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministerio de Salud, Managua 14062, Nicaragua
| | - Leah C Katzelnick
- Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892-3203, USA
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-3370, USA
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3
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Chen Y, Xu Y, Wang L, Liang Y, Li N, Lourenço J, Yang Y, Lin Q, Wang L, Zhao H, Cazelles B, Song H, Liu Z, Wang Z, Brady OJ, Cauchemez S, Tian H. Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends. Science 2024; 384:639-646. [PMID: 38723095 DOI: 10.1126/science.adj4427] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/31/2024]
Abstract
Despite identifying El Niño events as a factor in dengue dynamics, predicting the oscillation of global dengue epidemics remains challenging. Here, we investigate climate indicators and worldwide dengue incidence from 1990 to 2019 using climate-driven mechanistic models. We identify a distinct indicator, the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) index, as representing the regional average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. IOBW is closely associated with dengue epidemics for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres. The ability of IOBW to predict dengue incidence likely arises as a result of its effect on local temperature anomalies through teleconnections. These findings indicate that the IOBW index can potentially enhance the lead time for dengue forecasts, leading to better-planned and more impactful outbreak responses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuyang Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Yangtze Eco-Environment Engineering Research Center, China Three Gorges Corporation, Wuhan, China
| | - Yiting Xu
- School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China
| | - Lin Wang
- Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Yilin Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Naizhe Li
- School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai, China
| | - José Lourenço
- Católica Biomedical Research Center, Católica Medical School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Yun Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Qiushi Lin
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Ligui Wang
- Center of Disease Control and Prevention, PLA, Beijing, China
| | - He Zhao
- CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Bernard Cazelles
- Institut de Biologie de l'École Normale Supérieure UMR 8197, Eco-Evolutionary Mathematics, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
- Unité Mixte Internationnale 209, Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
| | - Hongbin Song
- Center of Disease Control and Prevention, PLA, Beijing, China
| | - Ziyan Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Zengmiao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Huaiyu Tian
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Center for Global Change and Public Health, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
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4
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Taylor-Salmon E, Hill V, Paul LM, Koch RT, Breban MI, Chaguza C, Sodeinde A, Warren JL, Bunch S, Cano N, Cone M, Eysoldt S, Garcia A, Gilles N, Hagy A, Heberlein L, Jaber R, Kassens E, Colarusso P, Davis A, Baudin S, Rico E, Mejía-Echeverri Á, Scott B, Stanek D, Zimler R, Muñoz-Jordán JL, Santiago GA, Adams LE, Paz-Bailey G, Spillane M, Katebi V, Paulino-Ramírez R, Mueses S, Peguero A, Sánchez N, Norman FF, Galán JC, Huits R, Hamer DH, Vogels CBF, Morrison A, Michael SF, Grubaugh ND. Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean. Nat Commun 2024; 15:3508. [PMID: 38664380 PMCID: PMC11045810 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-47774-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Taylor-Salmon
- Department of Pediatrics, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
| | - Verity Hill
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Lauren M Paul
- Department of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL, USA
| | - Robert T Koch
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Mallery I Breban
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Chrispin Chaguza
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Afeez Sodeinde
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Joshua L Warren
- Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Sylvia Bunch
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Natalia Cano
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Marshall Cone
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Sarah Eysoldt
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Alezaundra Garcia
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Nicadia Gilles
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Andrew Hagy
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Lea Heberlein
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Rayah Jaber
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Elizabeth Kassens
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tampa, FL, USA
| | - Pamela Colarusso
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Amanda Davis
- Bureau of Public Health Laboratories, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Samantha Baudin
- Florida Department of Health in Miami-Dade County, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Edhelene Rico
- Florida Department of Health in Miami-Dade County, Miami, FL, USA
| | | | - Blake Scott
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - Danielle Stanek
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - Rebecca Zimler
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | - Jorge L Muñoz-Jordán
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Gilberto A Santiago
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Laura E Adams
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Gabriela Paz-Bailey
- Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
| | - Melanie Spillane
- Office of Data, Analytics, and Technology, Division of Global Migration Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
- Bureau for Global Health, United States Agency for International Development, Arlington, VA, USA
| | - Volha Katebi
- Office of Data, Analytics, and Technology, Division of Global Migration Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Robert Paulino-Ramírez
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical & Salud Global, Universidad Iberoamericana, UNIBE Research Hub, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - Sayira Mueses
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical & Salud Global, Universidad Iberoamericana, UNIBE Research Hub, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - Armando Peguero
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical & Salud Global, Universidad Iberoamericana, UNIBE Research Hub, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - Nelissa Sánchez
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical & Salud Global, Universidad Iberoamericana, UNIBE Research Hub, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
| | - Francesca F Norman
- National Referral Unit for Tropical Diseases, Infectious Diseases Department, CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas, IRYCIS, Hospital Ramón y Cajal, Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain
| | - Juan-Carlos Galán
- Microbiology Department, Hospital Ramón y Cajal, Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria (IRYCIS), CIBER de Epidemiologia y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Ralph Huits
- Department of Infectious Tropical Diseases and Microbiology, IRCCS Sacro Cuore Don Calabria Hospital, Negrar, Verona, Italy
| | - Davidson H Hamer
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Section of Infectious Diseases, Boston University School of Medicine, Center for Emerging Infectious Disease Policy and Research, Boston University, and National Emerging Infectious Disease Laboratory, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Chantal B F Vogels
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Yale Institute for Global Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Andrea Morrison
- Bureau of Epidemiology, Division of Disease Control and Health Protection, Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, USA.
| | - Scott F Michael
- Department of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL, USA.
| | - Nathan D Grubaugh
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Yale Institute for Global Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
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5
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Zambrana JV, Hasund CM, Aogo RA, Bos S, Arguello S, Gonzalez K, Collado D, Miranda T, Kuan G, Gordon A, Balmaseda A, Katzelnick L, Harris E. Primary exposure to Zika virus increases risk of symptomatic dengue virus infection with serotypes 2, 3, and 4 but not serotype 1. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2023:2023.11.29.23299187. [PMID: 38077039 PMCID: PMC10705633 DOI: 10.1101/2023.11.29.23299187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2023]
Abstract
Infection with any of the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) can protect against or enhance subsequent dengue depending on pre-existing antibodies and the subsequent infecting serotype. Additionally, primary infection with the related flavivirus Zika virus (ZIKV) has been shown to increase DENV2 disease. Here, we measured how prior DENV and ZIKV immunity influenced risk of disease caused by all four serotypes in a pediatric Nicaraguan cohort. Of 3,412 participants in 2022, 10.6% experienced symptomatic DENV infections caused by DENV1 (n=139), DENV4 (n=133), DENV3 (n=54), DENV2 (n=9), or an undetermined serotype (n=39). Longitudinal clinical and serological data were used to define infection histories, and generalized linear and additive models adjusted for age, sex, time since the last infection, cohort year, and repeat measurements were used to predict disease risk. Compared to flavivirus-naïve participants, primary ZIKV infection increased disease risk of DENV4 (relative risk = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-4.63) and DENV3 (2.90, 1.34-6.27) but not DENV1 (1.20, 0.72-1.99). Primary DENV infection or a DENV followed by ZIKV infection also increased DENV4 risk. We re-analyzed 19 years of cohort data and demonstrated that prior flavivirus-immunity and pre-existing antibody titer differentially affected disease risk for incoming serotypes, increasing risk of DENV2 and DENV4, protecting against DENV1, and protecting at high titers but enhancing at low titers against DENV3. We thus find that prior ZIKV infection, like prior DENV infection, increases risk of certain DENV serotypes. Cross-reactivity among flaviviruses should be carefully considered when assessing vaccine safety and efficacy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jose Victor Zambrana
- Sustainable Sciences Institute; Managua, Nicaragua
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan; Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Chloe M. Hasund
- Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda; MD, USA
| | - Rosemary A. Aogo
- Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda; MD, USA
| | - Sandra Bos
- Division of Infectious Disease and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley; Berkeley, CA, USA
| | | | - Karla Gonzalez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute; Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministerio de Salud; Managua, Nicaragua
| | | | | | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute; Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministerio de Salud; Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan; Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute; Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministerio de Salud; Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Leah Katzelnick
- Viral Epidemiology and Immunity Unit, Laboratory of Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda; MD, USA
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Disease and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley; Berkeley, CA, USA
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6
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Gräf T, Ferreira CDN, de Lima GB, de Lima RE, Machado LC, Campos TDL, Schemberger MO, Faoro H, Paiva MHS, Bezerra MF, Nascimento V, Souza V, Nascimento F, Mejía M, Silva D, de Oliveira YS, Gonçalves L, Ramos TCA, de Castro DB, Arcanjo AR, Dantas HAP, Presibella MM, Fernandes SB, Gregianini TS, Paz E Silva KM, Sacchi CT, Cruz ACR, Duarte dos Santos CN, Bispo de Filippis AM, Bello G, Wallau GL, Salvato RS, Naveca F. Multiple introductions and country-wide spread of DENV-2 genotype II (Cosmopolitan) in Brazil. Virus Evol 2023; 9:vead059. [PMID: 38288387 PMCID: PMC10824474 DOI: 10.1093/ve/vead059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Revised: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 09/20/2023] [Indexed: 01/31/2024] Open
Abstract
Dengue virus serotype 2, genotype Cosmopolitan (DENV-2-GII), is one of the most widespread DENV strains globally. In the USA, DENV-2 epidemics have been dominated by DENV-2 genotype Asian-American (DENV-2-GIII), and the first cases of DENV-2-GII were only described in 2019, in Peru, and in 2021 in Brazil. To gain new information about the circulation of DENV-2-GII in Brazil, we sequenced 237 DENV-2 confirmed cases sampled between March 2021 and March 2023 and revealed that DENV-2-GII is already present in all geographic regions of Brazil. The phylogeographic analysis inferred that DENV-2-GII was introduced at least four times in Brazil, between May 2020 and August 2022, generating multiple clades that spread throughout the country with different success. Despite multiple introductions of DENV-2-GII, analysis of the country-wide laboratory surveillance data showed that the Brazilian dengue epidemic in 2022 was dominated by DENV-1 in most states. We hypothesize that massive circulation of DENV-2-GIII in previous years in Brazil might have created a population immune barrier against symptomatic homotypic reinfections by DENV-2-GII, leading to sustained cryptic circulation in asymptomatic cases and localized outbreaks of this new genotype. In summary, our study stresses the importance of arboviral genomic surveillance to close monitoring and better understanding the potential impact of DENV-2-GII in the coming years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tiago Gräf
- Laboratório de Virologia Molecular, Instituto Carlos Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Curitiba 81350-010, Brazil
| | | | - Gustavo Barbosa de Lima
- Núcleo de Plataformas Tecnológicas (NPT), Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM), FIOCRUZ-Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco 50740-465, Brazil
| | - Raul Emídio de Lima
- Núcleo de Plataformas Tecnológicas (NPT), Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM), FIOCRUZ-Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco 50740-465, Brazil
| | - Lais Ceschini Machado
- Departamento de Entomologia, Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM)-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz-FIOCRUZ, Recife, Pernambuco 50670-420, Brazil
- Núcleo de Bioinformática (NBI), Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM), FIOCRUZ-Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco 50740-465, Brazil
| | - Tulio de Lima Campos
- Núcleo de Bioinformática (NBI), Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM), FIOCRUZ-Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco 50740-465, Brazil
| | - Michelle Orane Schemberger
- Laboratório de Ciências e Tecnologias Aplicadas em Saúde, Instituto Carlos Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Curitiba 81350-010, Brazil
| | - Helisson Faoro
- Laboratório de Ciências e Tecnologias Aplicadas em Saúde, Instituto Carlos Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Curitiba 81350-010, Brazil
| | - Marcelo Henrique Santos Paiva
- Núcleo de Ciências da Vida, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Centro Acadêmico do Agreste-Rodovia BR-104, km 59-Nova Caruaru, Caruaru 55002-970, Brazil
| | - Matheus Filgueira Bezerra
- Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM), FIOCRUZ-Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco 50740-465, Brazil
| | - Valdinete Nascimento
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
| | - Victor Souza
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
| | - Fernanda Nascimento
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
| | - Matilde Mejía
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
| | - Dejanane Silva
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
| | - Yasmin Silva de Oliveira
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
| | - Luciana Gonçalves
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
- Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas—Dra Rosemary Costa Pinto, Manaus, Amazonas 69093-018, Brazil
| | - Tatyana Costa Amorim Ramos
- Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas—Dra Rosemary Costa Pinto, Manaus, Amazonas 69093-018, Brazil
| | - Daniel Barros de Castro
- Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas—Dra Rosemary Costa Pinto, Manaus, Amazonas 69093-018, Brazil
| | - Ana Ruth Arcanjo
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Amazonas (LACEN-AM), Manaus, Amazonas 69020-040, Brazil
| | | | - Mayra Marinho Presibella
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Estado do Paraná (LACEN-PR), São José dos Pinhais, Paraná 83060-500, Brazil
| | - Sandra Bianchini Fernandes
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Estado de Santa Catarina (LACEN-SC), Florianópolis, Santa Catarina 88010-001, Brazil
| | - Tatiana Schaffer Gregianini
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Sul (LACEN-RS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul 90610-000, Brazil
| | - Keilla Maria Paz E Silva
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Pernambuco (LACEN-PE), Recife, Pernambuco 50050-210, Brazil
| | | | - Ana Cecília Ribeiro Cruz
- Department of Arbovirology and Hemorrhagic Fevers, Evandro Chagas Institute, Health and Environment Surveillance Secretariat, Ministry of Health, Ananindeua, Para 670030-000, Brazil
- Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Pará, Belém, Para 66075-110, Brazil
| | | | - Ana Maria Bispo de Filippis
- Laboratório de Arbovírus e Vírus Hemorrágicos, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro 21040-360, Brazil
| | - Gonzalo Bello
- Laboratório de Arbovírus e Vírus Hemorrágicos, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro 21040-360, Brazil
| | - Gabriel Luz Wallau
- Departamento de Entomologia, Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM)-Fundação Oswaldo Cruz-FIOCRUZ, Recife, Pernambuco 50670-420, Brazil
- Núcleo de Bioinformática (NBI), Instituto Aggeu Magalhães (IAM), FIOCRUZ-Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco 50740-465, Brazil
- Department of Arbovirology, Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine, WHO Collaborating Center for Arbovirus and Hemorrhagic Fever Reference and Research, National Reference Center for Tropical Infectious Diseases, Bernhard-Nocht-Straße 74, Hamburg 20359, Germany
| | - Richard Steiner Salvato
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Sul (LACEN-RS), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul 90610-000, Brazil
| | - Felipe Naveca
- Laboratório de Ecologia de Doenças Transmissíveis na Amazônia, Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane, Fiocruz, Manaus 69057-070, Brazil
- Laboratório de Arbovírus e Vírus Hemorrágicos, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro 21040-360, Brazil
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