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Lee TY, Hwang WJ, Kim NS, Park I, Lho SK, Moon SY, Oh S, Lee J, Kim M, Woo CW, Kwon JS. Prediction of psychosis: model development and internal validation of a personalized risk calculator. Psychol Med 2022; 52:2632-2640. [PMID: 33315005 PMCID: PMC9647536 DOI: 10.1017/s0033291720004675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2020] [Revised: 11/04/2020] [Accepted: 11/11/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Over the past two decades, early detection and early intervention in psychosis have become essential goals of psychiatry. However, clinical impressions are insufficient for predicting psychosis outcomes in clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals; a more rigorous and objective model is needed. This study aims to develop and internally validate a model for predicting the transition to psychosis within 10 years. METHODS Two hundred and eight help-seeking individuals who fulfilled the CHR criteria were enrolled from the prospective, naturalistic cohort program for CHR at the Seoul Youth Clinic (SYC). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-penalized Cox regression was used to develop a predictive model for a psychotic transition. We performed k-means clustering and survival analysis to stratify the risk of psychosis. RESULTS The predictive model, which includes clinical and cognitive variables, identified the following six baseline variables as important predictors: 1-year percentage decrease in the Global Assessment of Functioning score, IQ, California Verbal Learning Test score, Strange Stories test score, and scores in two domains of the Social Functioning Scale. The predictive model showed a cross-validated Harrell's C-index of 0.78 and identified three subclusters with significantly different risk levels. CONCLUSIONS Overall, our predictive model showed a predictive ability and could facilitate a personalized therapeutic approach to different risks in high-risk individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tae Young Lee
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Psychiatry, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
| | - Wu Jeong Hwang
- Department of Brain and Cognitive Neuroscience, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Center for Neuroscience Imaging Research, Institute for Basic Science, Suwon, Republic of Korea
| | - Nahrie S. Kim
- Department of Psychiatry, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan, Republic of Korea
- Department of Brain and Cognitive Neuroscience, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Center for Neuroscience Imaging Research, Institute for Basic Science, Suwon, Republic of Korea
| | - Inkyung Park
- Department of Brain and Cognitive Neuroscience, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Center for Neuroscience Imaging Research, Institute for Basic Science, Suwon, Republic of Korea
| | - Silvia Kyungjin Lho
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sun-Young Moon
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sanghoon Oh
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Junhee Lee
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Minah Kim
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Choong-Wan Woo
- Department of Brain and Cognitive Neuroscience, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Center for Neuroscience Imaging Research, Institute for Basic Science, Suwon, Republic of Korea
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Republic of Korea
| | - Jun Soo Kwon
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Brain and Cognitive Neuroscience, Seoul National University College of Natural Sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Center for Neuroscience Imaging Research, Institute for Basic Science, Suwon, Republic of Korea
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Lee TY, Lee SS, Gong BG, Kwon JS. Research Trends in Individuals at High Risk for Psychosis: A Bibliometric Analysis. Front Psychiatry 2022; 13:853296. [PMID: 35573362 PMCID: PMC9099069 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.853296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 03/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The study of clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) has progressed rapidly over the last decades and has developed into a significant branch of schizophrenia research. Organizing the information about this rapidly growing subject through bibliometric analysis enables us to gain a better understanding of current research trends and future directions to be pursued. Electronic searches from January 1991 to December 2020 yielded 5,601 studies, and included 1,637 original articles. After processing the data, we were able to determine that this field has grown significantly in a short period of time. It has been confirmed that researchers, institutions, and countries are collaborating closely to conduct research; moreover, these networks are becoming increasingly complex over time. Additionally, there was a shift over time in the focus of the research subject from the prodrome, recognition, prevention, diagnosis to cognition, neuroimaging, neurotransmitters, cannabis, and stigma. We should aim for collaborative studies in which various countries participate, thus covering a wider range of races and cultures than would be covered by only a few countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tae Young Lee
- Department of Psychiatry, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan-si, South Korea.,Research Institute for Convergence of Biomedical Science and Technology, Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital, Yangsan-si, South Korea
| | - Soo Sang Lee
- Department of Library Information Archives Studies, Pusan National University, Pusan, South Korea
| | - Byoung-Gyu Gong
- Sorenson Impact Center, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States
| | - Jun Soo Kwon
- Department of Psychiatry, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.,Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Seoul National University College of National Sciences, Seoul, South Korea
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Rosen M, Betz LT, Schultze-Lutter F, Chisholm K, Haidl TK, Kambeitz-Ilankovic L, Bertolino A, Borgwardt S, Brambilla P, Lencer R, Meisenzahl E, Ruhrmann S, Salokangas RKR, Upthegrove R, Wood SJ, Koutsouleris N, Kambeitz J. Towards clinical application of prediction models for transition to psychosis: A systematic review and external validation study in the PRONIA sample. Neurosci Biobehav Rev 2021; 125:478-492. [PMID: 33636198 DOI: 10.1016/j.neubiorev.2021.02.032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Revised: 01/14/2021] [Accepted: 02/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
A multitude of prediction models for a first psychotic episode in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis have been proposed, but only rarely validated. We identified transition models based on clinical and neuropsychological data through a registered systematic literature search and evaluated their external validity in 173 CHRs from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the prediction of clinical raters. External discrimination performance varied considerably across the 22 identified models (AUC 0.40-0.76), with two models showing good discrimination performance. None of the tested models significantly outperformed clinical raters (AUC = 0.75). Combining predictions of clinical raters and the best model descriptively improved discrimination performance (AUC = 0.84). Results show that personalized prediction of transition in CHR is potentially feasible on a global scale. For implementation in clinical practice, further rounds of external validation, impact studies, and development of an ethical framework is necessary.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marlene Rosen
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Linda T Betz
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Frauke Schultze-Lutter
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany; Department of Psychology and Mental Health, Faculty of Psychology, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia; University Hospital of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Katharine Chisholm
- Institute for Mental Health and Centre for Human Brain Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Department of Psychology, Aston University, Birmingham, UK
| | - Theresa K Haidl
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | - Lana Kambeitz-Ilankovic
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany
| | - Alessandro Bertolino
- Department of Neurological and Psychiatric Sciences, University of Bari, Bari, Italy
| | - Stefan Borgwardt
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Lübeck, Lübeck, Germany; Department of Psychiatry, Psychiatric University Hospital, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Paolo Brambilla
- Department of Neurosciences and Mental Health, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, University of Milan, Milan, Italy; Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Rebekka Lencer
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University of Lübeck, Lübeck, Germany; Department of Psychiatry, University of Münster, Münster, Germany
| | - Eva Meisenzahl
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Medical Faculty, Heinrich-Heine University, Düsseldorf, Germany
| | - Stephan Ruhrmann
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
| | | | - Rachel Upthegrove
- Institute for Mental Health and Centre for Human Brain Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Stephen J Wood
- Institute for Mental Health and Centre for Human Brain Health, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK; Orygen, Melbourne, Australia; Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Nikolaos Koutsouleris
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany; Max-Planck Institute of Psychiatry, Munich, Germany; Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Joseph Kambeitz
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
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Predicting the individual risk of psychosis conversion in at-risk mental state (ARMS): a multivariate model reveals the influence of nonpsychotic prodromal symptoms. Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry 2020; 29:1525-1535. [PMID: 31872289 DOI: 10.1007/s00787-019-01461-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2018] [Accepted: 11/16/2019] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
To improve the prediction of the individual risk of conversion to psychosis in UHR subjects, by considering all CAARMS' symptoms at first presentation and using a multivariate machine learning method known as logistic regression with Elastic-net shrinkage. 46 young individuals who sought help from the specialized outpatient unit at Sainte-Anne hospital and who met CAARMS criteria for UHR were assessed, among whom 27 were reassessed at follow-up (22.4 ± 6.54 months) and included in the analysis. Elastic net logistic regression was trained, using CAARMS items at baseline to predict individual evolution between converters (UHR-P) and non-converters (UHR-NP). Elastic-net was used to select the few CAARMS items that best predict the clinical evolution. All validations and significances of predictive models were computed with non-parametric re-sampling strategies that provide robust estimators even when the distributional assumption cannot be guaranteed. Among the 25 CAARMS items, the Elastic net selected 'obsessive-compulsive symptoms' and 'aggression/dangerous behavior' as risk factors for conversion while 'anhedonia' and 'mood swings/lability' were associated with non-conversion at follow-up. In the ten-fold stratified cross-validation, the classification achieved 81.8% of sensitivity (P = 0.035) and 93.7% of specificity (P = 0.0016). Non-psychotic prodromal symptoms bring valuable information to improve the prediction of conversion to psychosis. Elastic net logistic regression applied to clinical data is a promising way to switch from group prediction to an individualized prediction.
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Alfimova MV, Lezheiko TV, Sergeev NV, Plakunova VV, Golimbet VE. [Structure of schizotypal traits in the Russian population]. Zh Nevrol Psikhiatr Im S S Korsakova 2020; 120:94-101. [PMID: 32790982 DOI: 10.17116/jnevro202012007194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Establishing the structure of schizotypal traits and its cross-cultural and demographic universality is an important condition for increasing the effectiveness of prognosis of schizophrenic spectrum disorders and basic research on their etiology. The present study aimed to explore the structure of schizotypal traits measured by the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ-74) in the Russian population. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses of the factor structure of SPQ-74 were performed using a sample of 1316 people of a wide age range. It is shown that, in the Russian population, the four-factor «paranoid» model of N. Stefanis et al. had the best fit for the data. The multivariate confirmatory analysis evidenced the gender invariance of the model.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - N V Sergeev
- Moscow State Academy of Physical Education, Moscow, Russia
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Studerus E, Beck K, Fusar-Poli P, Riecher-Rössler A. Development and Validation of a Dynamic Risk Prediction Model to Forecast Psychosis Onset in Patients at Clinical High Risk. Schizophr Bull 2020; 46:252-260. [PMID: 31355885 PMCID: PMC7442327 DOI: 10.1093/schbul/sbz059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
The prediction of outcomes in patients at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) almost exclusively relies on static data obtained at a single snapshot in time (ie, baseline data). Although the CHR-P symptoms are intrinsically evolving over time, available prediction models cannot be dynamically updated to reflect these changes. Hence, the aim of this study was to develop and internally validate a dynamic risk prediction model (joint model) and to implement this model in a user-friendly online risk calculator. Furthermore, we aimed to explore the prognostic performance of extended dynamic risk prediction models and to compare static with dynamic prediction. One hundred ninety-six CHR-P patients were recruited as part of the "Basel Früherkennung von Psychosen" (FePsy) study. Psychopathology and transition to psychosis was assessed at regular intervals for up to 5 years using the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale-Expanded (BPRS-E). Various specifications of joint models were compared with regard to their cross-validated prognostic performance. We developed and internally validated a joint model that predicts psychosis onset from BPRS-E disorganization and years of education at baseline and BPRS-E positive symptoms during the follow-up with good prognostic performance. The model was implemented as online risk calculator (http://www.fepsy.ch/DPRP/). The use of extended joint models slightly increased the prognostic accuracy compared to basic joint models, and dynamic models showed a higher prognostic accuracy than static models. Our results confirm that extended joint modeling could improve the prediction of psychosis in CHR-P patients. We implemented the first online risk calculator that can dynamically update psychosis risk prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erich Studerus
- Center for Gender Research and Early Detection, University of Basel Psychiatric Hospital, Basel, Switzerland,To whom correspondence should be addressed; tel: +41-61-325-59-95, e-mail:
| | - Katharina Beck
- Center for Gender Research and Early Detection, University of Basel Psychiatric Hospital, Basel, Switzerland,Department of Psychology, Division of Clinical Psychology and Epidemiology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Paolo Fusar-Poli
- Early Psychosis: Interventions and Clinical-detection (EPIC) Lab, Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London, London, UK,OASIS Service, South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust, London, UK,Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy,National Institute of Health Research—Mental Health—Translational Research Collaboration—Early Psychosis Workstream, London, UK
| | - Anita Riecher-Rössler
- Center for Gender Research and Early Detection, University of Basel Psychiatric Hospital, Basel, Switzerland
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Poletti M, Azzali S, Paterlini F, Garlassi S, Scazza I, Chiri LR, Pupo S, Raballo A, Pelizza L. Familiarity for Serious Mental Illness in Help-Seeking Adolescents at Clinical High Risk of Psychosis. Front Psychiatry 2020; 11:552282. [PMID: 33488412 PMCID: PMC7819871 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2020.552282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2020] [Accepted: 11/27/2020] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Aim: Ultrahigh-risk (UHR) individuals have an increased vulnerability to psychosis because of accumulating environmental and/or genetic risk factors. Although original research examined established risk factors for psychosis in the UHR state, these findings are scarce and often contradictory. The aims of this study were (a) to investigate the prevalence of severe mental illness (SMI) in family members of distinct subgroups of adolescents identified through the UHR criteria [i.e., non-UHR vs. UHR vs. first-episode psychosis (FEP)] and (b) to examine any relevant associations of family vulnerability and genetic risk and functioning deterioration (GRFD) syndrome with clinical and psychopathological characteristics in the UHR group. Methods: Adolescents (n = 147) completed an ad hoc sociodemographic/clinical schedule and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States to investigate the clinical status. Results: More than 60% UHR patients had a family history of SMI, and approximately a third of them had at least a first-degree relative with psychosis or other SMI. A GRFD syndrome was detected in ~35% of UHR adolescents. GRFD adolescents showed baseline high levels of positive symptoms (especially non-bizarre ideas) and emotional disturbances (specifically, observed inappropriate affect). Conclusions: Our results confirm the importance of genetic and/or within-family risk factors in UHR adolescents, suggesting the crucial need of their early detection, also within the network of general practitioners, general hospitals, and the other community agencies (e.g., social services and school).
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Affiliation(s)
- Michele Poletti
- Department of Mental Health and Pathological Addiction, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale-Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a carattere Scientifico (USL-IRCSS) di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Silvia Azzali
- Department of Mental Health and Pathological Addiction, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale-Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a carattere Scientifico (USL-IRCSS) di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Federica Paterlini
- Department of Mental Health and Pathological Addiction, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale-Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a carattere Scientifico (USL-IRCSS) di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Sara Garlassi
- Department of Mental Health and Pathological Addiction, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale-Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a carattere Scientifico (USL-IRCSS) di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Ilaria Scazza
- Department of Mental Health and Pathological Addiction, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale-Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a carattere Scientifico (USL-IRCSS) di Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Luigi Rocco Chiri
- Department of Primary Care, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale (USL) di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Simona Pupo
- Anesthesia and Resuscitation Service, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Andrea Raballo
- Division of Psychiatry, Department of Medicine, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy.,Center for Translational, Phenomenological and Developmental Psychopathology, Perugia University Hospital, Perugia, Italy
| | - Lorenzo Pelizza
- Department of Mental Health and Pathological Addiction, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale (USL) di Parma, Parma, Italy
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Meyer JM. Commentary: More research needed on predictive biomarkers related to clozapine treatment. Biomark Neuropsychiatry 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.bionps.2019.100003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
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