Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Exercise Interventions for Psychotic Disorders: The Impact of Exercise Intensity, Mindfulness Components, and Other Moderators on Symptoms, Functioning, and Cardiometabolic Health

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Exercise therapy has been shown to be an effective complementary treatment for patients with psychotic disorders. However, the specific impacts of different training modalities remain poorly understood. This article aims to quantitatively review the moderating influence of different exercise modalities, hypothesizing that higher exercise intensity as well as utilization of mindfulness-based exercise (MBE) components, will improve intervention outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

PubMed, Web of Science, and PsycINFO were searched from 2010 to March 2022 for randomized controlled trials investigating exercise interventions in patients with psychotic disorders (preregistration: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/J8QNS). Outcomes considered were positive/negative symptoms, Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) General Psychopathology/Total scores, depressive symptoms, psychosocial functioning, quality of life, cardiorespiratory fitness, and body mass index. Separate meta-analyses, including moderator analyses, were performed to evaluate the moderating influence of different training modalities.

STUDY RESULTS

Of 6653 studies, 40 (n = 2111 patients) were included in the meta-analysis. The effects of moderate-intensity exercise exceed low-intensity approaches for PANSS Total scores (P = .02) and depressive symptoms (P = .04). The presence of MBE components was associated with improvements in positive symptoms (P = .04) and PANSS General Psychopathology subscores (P = .04) but also with higher error and between-study heterogeneity. Our analysis also shows improved intervention effects on depression in younger patients (P = .012) and improved psychosocial functioning scores following more frequent sessions (P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

A minimum of moderate intensity should be considered. More frequent training sessions per week also seem to be beneficial. While adding mindfulness elements is promising, it increases heterogeneity and requires caution in terms of generalization.

Development of the PSYCHS: Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS

AIM

To harmonize two ascertainment and severity rating instruments commonly used for the clinical high risk syndrome for psychosis (CHR-P): the Structured Interview for Psychosis-risk Syndromes (SIPS) and the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS).

METHODS

The initial workshop is described in the companion report from Addington et al. After the workshop, lead experts for each instrument continued harmonizing attenuated positive symptoms and criteria for psychosis and CHR-P through an intensive series of joint videoconferences.

RESULTS

Full harmonization was achieved for attenuated positive symptom ratings and psychosis criteria, and modest harmonization for CHR-P criteria. The semi-structured interview, named Positive SYmptoms and Diagnostic Criteria for the CAARMS Harmonized with the SIPS (PSYCHS), generates CHR-P criteria and severity scores for both CAARMS and SIPS.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the PSYCHS for CHR-P ascertainment, conversion determination, and attenuated positive symptom severity rating will help in comparing findings across studies and in meta-analyses.

Distinct multimodal biological and functional profiles of symptom-based subgroups in recent-onset psychosis

Symptom heterogeneity characterizes psychotic disorders and hinders the delineation of underlying biomarkers. Here, we identify symptom-based subtypes of recent-onset psychosis (ROP) patients from the multi-center PRONIA (Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management) database and explore their multimodal biological and functional signatures. We clustered N = 328 ROP patients based on their maximum factor scores in an exploratory factor analysis on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale items. We assessed inter-subgroup differences and compared to N = 464 healthy control (HC) individuals regarding gray matter volume (GMV), neurocognition, polygenic risk scores, and longitudinal functioning trajectories. Finally, we evaluated factor stability at 9- and 18-month follow-ups. A 4-factor solution optimally explained symptom heterogeneity, showing moderate longitudinal stability. The ROP-MOTCOG (Motor/Cognition) subgroup was characterized by GMV reductions within salience, control and default mode networks, predominantly throughout cingulate regions, relative to HC individuals, had the most impaired neurocognition and the highest genetic liability for schizophrenia. ROP-SOCWD (Social Withdrawal) patients showed GMV reductions within medial fronto-temporal regions of the control, default mode, and salience networks, and had the lowest social functioning across time points. ROP-POS (Positive) evidenced GMV decreases in salience, limbic and frontal regions of the control and default mode networks. The ROP-AFF (Affective) subgroup showed GMV reductions in the salience, limbic, and posterior default-mode and control networks, thalamus and cerebellum. GMV reductions in fronto-temporal regions of the salience and control networks were shared across subgroups. Our results highlight the existence of behavioral subgroups with distinct neurobiological and functional profiles in early psychosis, emphasizing the need for refined symptom-based diagnosis and prognosis frameworks.

Alterations of Functional Connectivity Dynamics in Affective and Psychotic Disorders

BACKGROUND

Psychosis and depression patients exhibit widespread neurobiological abnormalities. The analysis of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), allows for the detection of changes in complex brain activity patterns, providing insights into common and unique processes underlying these disorders.

METHODS

In the present study, we report the analysis of dFC in a large patient sample including 127 clinical high-risk patients (CHR), 142 recent-onset psychosis (ROP) patients, 134 recent-onset depression (ROD) patients, and 256 healthy controls (HC). A sliding window-based technique was used to calculate the time-dependent FC in resting-state MRI data, followed by clustering to reveal recurrent FC states in each diagnostic group.

RESULTS

We identified five unique FC states, which could be identified in all groups with high consistency (rmean = 0.889, sd = 0.116). Analysis of dynamic parameters of these states showed a characteristic increase in the lifetime and frequency of a weakly-connected FC state in ROD patients (p < 0.0005) compared to most other groups, and a common increase in the lifetime of a FC state characterised by high sensorimotor and cingulo-opercular connectivities in all patient groups compared to the HC group (p < 0.0002). Canonical correlation analysis revealed a mode which exhibited significant correlations between dFC parameters and clinical variables (r = 0.617, p < 0.0029), which was associated with positive psychosis symptom severity and several dFC parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate diagnosis-specific alterations of dFC and underline the potential of dynamic analysis to characterize disorders such as depression, psychosis and clinical risk states.

Algorithmic fairness in precision psychiatry: analysis of prediction models in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

Computational models offer promising potential for personalised treatment of psychiatric diseases. For their clinical deployment, fairness must be evaluated alongside accuracy. Fairness requires predictive models to not unfairly disadvantage specific demographic groups. Failure to assess model fairness prior to use risks perpetuating healthcare inequalities. Despite its importance, empirical investigation of fairness in predictive models for psychiatry remains scarce.

AIMS

To evaluate fairness in prediction models for development of psychosis and functional outcome.

METHOD

Using data from the PRONIA study, we examined fairness in 13 published models for prediction of transition to psychosis (n = 11) and functional outcome (n = 2) in people at clinical high risk for psychosis or with recent-onset depression. Using accuracy equality, predictive parity, false-positive error rate balance and false-negative error rate balance, we evaluated relevant fairness aspects for the demographic attributes 'gender' and 'educational attainment' and compared them with the fairness of clinicians' judgements.

RESULTS

Our findings indicate systematic bias towards assigning less favourable outcomes to individuals with lower educational attainment in both prediction models and clinicians' judgements, resulting in higher false-positive rates in 7 of 11 models for transition to psychosis. Interestingly, the bias patterns observed in algorithmic predictions were not significantly more pronounced than those in clinicians' predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Educational bias was present in algorithmic and clinicians' predictions, assuming more favourable outcomes for individuals with higher educational level (years of education). This bias might lead to increased stigma and psychosocial burden in patients with lower educational attainment and suboptimal psychosis prevention in those with higher educational attainment.

Transdiagnostic subgroups of cognitive impairment in early affective and psychotic illness

Cognitively impaired and spared patient subgroups were identified in psychosis and depression, and in clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Studies suggest differences in underlying brain structural and functional characteristics. It is unclear whether cognitive subgroups are transdiagnostic phenomena in early stages of psychotic and affective disorder which can be validated on the neural level. Patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP; N = 140; female = 54), recent-onset depression (ROD; N = 130; female = 73), CHR (N = 128; female = 61) and healthy controls (HC; N = 270; female = 165) were recruited through the multi-site study PRONIA. The transdiagnostic sample and individual study groups were clustered into subgroups based on their performance in eight cognitive domains and characterized by gray matter volume (sMRI) and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) using support vector machine (SVM) classification. We identified an impaired subgroup (NROP = 79, NROD = 30, NCHR = 37) showing cognitive impairment in executive functioning, working memory, processing speed and verbal learning (all p < 0.001). A spared subgroup (NROP = 61, NROD = 100, NCHR = 91) performed comparable to HC. Single-disease subgroups indicated that cognitive impairment is stronger pronounced in impaired ROP compared to impaired ROD and CHR. Subgroups in ROP and ROD showed specific symptom- and functioning-patterns. rsFC showed superior accuracy compared to sMRI in differentiating transdiagnostic subgroups from HC (BACimpaired = 58.5%; BACspared = 61.7%, both: p < 0.01). Cognitive findings were validated in the PRONIA replication sample (N = 409). Individual cognitive subgroups in ROP, ROD and CHR are more informative than transdiagnostic subgroups as they map onto individual cognitive impairment and specific functioning- and symptom-patterns which show limited overlap in sMRI and rsFC. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME: German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS). Clinical trial registry URL: https://www.drks.de/drks_web/ . Clinical trial registry number: DRKS00005042.

Illusory generalizability of clinical prediction models

It is widely hoped that statistical models can improve decision-making related to medical treatments. Because of the cost and scarcity of medical outcomes data, this hope is typically based on investigators observing a model's success in one or two datasets or clinical contexts. We scrutinized this optimism by examining how well a machine learning model performed across several independent clinical trials of antipsychotic medication for schizophrenia. Models predicted patient outcomes with high accuracy within the trial in which the model was developed but performed no better than chance when applied out-of-sample. Pooling data across trials to predict outcomes in the trial left out did not improve predictions. These results suggest that models predicting treatment outcomes in schizophrenia are highly context-dependent and may have limited generalizability.

A multivariate cognitive approach to predict social functioning in recent onset psychosis in response to computerized cognitive training

Clinical and neuroimaging data has been increasingly used in recent years to disentangle heterogeneity of treatment response to cognitive training (CT) and predict which individuals may achieve the highest benefits. CT has small to medium effects on improving cognitive and social functioning in recent onset psychosis (ROP) patients, who show the most profound cognitive and social functioning deficits among psychiatric patients. We employed multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) to investigate the potential of cognitive data to predict social functioning improvement in response to 10 h of CT in patients with ROP. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier was trained on the naturalistic data of the Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study sample to predict functioning in an independent sample of 70 ROP patients using baseline cognitive data. PRONIA is a part of a FP7 EU grant program that involved 7 sites across 5 European countries, designed and conducted with the main aim of identifying (bio)markers associated with an enhanced risk of developing psychosis in order to improve early detection and prognosis. Social functioning was predicted with a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 66.4% (Sensitivity 78.8%; Specificity 54.1%; PPV 60.5%; NPV 74.1%; AUC 0.64; P = 0.01). The most frequently selected cognitive features (mean feature weights > ± 0.2) included the (1) correct number of symbol matchings within the Digit Symbol Substitution Test, (2) the number of distracting stimuli leading to an error within 300 and 200 trials in the Continuous Performance Test and (3) the dynamics of verbal fluency between 15 and 30 s within the Verbal Fluency Test, phonetic part. Next, the SVM classifier generated on the PRONIA sample was applied to the intervention sample, that obtained 54 ROP patients who were randomly assigned to a social cognitive training (SCT) or treatment as usual (TAU) group and dichotomized into good (GF-S ≥ 7) and poor (GF-S < 7) functioning patients based on their level of Global Functioning-Social (GF-S) score at follow-up (FU). By applying the initial PRONIA classifier, using out-of-sample cross-validation (OOCV) to the sample of ROP patients who have undergone the CT intervention, a BAC of 59.3% (Sensitivity 70.4%; Specificity 48.1%; PPV 57.6%; NPV 61.9%; AUC 0.63) was achieved at T0 and a BAC of 64.8% (Sensitivity 66.7%; Specificity 63.0%; PPV 64.3%; NPV 65.4%; AUC 0.66) at FU. After SCT intervention, a significant improvement in predicted social functioning values was observed in the SCT compared to TAU group (P ≤0.05; ES[Cohens' d] = 0.18). Due to a small sample size and modest variance of social functioning of the intervention sample it was not feasible to predict individual response to SCT in the current study. Our findings suggest that the use of baseline cognitive data could provide a robust individual estimate of future social functioning, while prediction of individual response to SCT using cognitive data that can be generated in the routine patient care remains to be addressed in large-scale cognitive training trials.

Structural and Functional Brain Patterns Predict Formal Thought Disorder's Severity and Its Persistence in Recent-Onset Psychosis: Results From the PRONIA Study

BACKGROUND

Formal thought disorder (FThD) is a core feature of psychosis, and its severity and long-term persistence relates to poor clinical outcomes. However, advances in developing early recognition and management tools for FThD are hindered by a lack of insight into the brain-level predictors of FThD states and progression at the individual level.

METHODS

Two hundred thirty-three individuals with recent-onset psychosis were drawn from the multisite European Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management study. Support vector machine classifiers were trained within a cross-validation framework to separate two FThD symptom-based subgroups (high vs. low FThD severity), using cross-sectional whole-brain multiband fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations, gray matter volume and white matter volume data. Moreover, we trained machine learning models on these neuroimaging readouts to predict the persistence of high FThD subgroup membership from baseline to 1-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, multivariate patterns of gray matter volume within the salience, dorsal attention, visual, and ventral attention networks separated the FThD severity subgroups (balanced accuracy [BAC] = 60.8%). Longitudinally, distributed activations/deactivations within all fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuation sub-bands (BACslow-5 = 73.2%, BACslow-4 = 72.9%, BACslow-3 = 68.0%), gray matter volume patterns overlapping with the cross-sectional ones (BAC = 62.7%), and smaller frontal white matter volume (BAC = 73.1%) predicted the persistence of high FThD severity from baseline to follow-up, with a combined multimodal balanced accuracy of BAC = 77%.

CONCLUSIONS

We report the first evidence of brain structural and functional patterns predictive of FThD severity and persistence in early psychosis. These findings open up avenues for the development of neuroimaging-based diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment options for the early recognition and management of FThD and associated poor outcomes.

Prevalence of COVID-19 and Psychotropic Drug Treatment in Psychiatric In-patients in Germany in 2020: Results from a Nationwide Pilot Survey

INTRODUCTION

In patients with a pre-existing mental disorder, an increased risk for a first manifestation of a psychiatric disorder in COVID-19 patients, a more severe course of COVID-19 and an increased mortality have been described. Conversely, observations of lower COVID-19 incidences in psychiatric in-patients suggested protective effects of psychiatric treatment and/or psychotropic drugs against COVID-19.

METHODS

A retrospective multi-center study was conducted in 24 German psychiatric university hospitals. Between April and December 2020 (the first and partly second wave of COVID-19), the effects of COVID-19 were assessed on psychiatric in-patient care, the incidence and course of a SARS-CoV-2 infection, and treatment with psychotropic drugs.

RESULTS

Patients (n=36,322) were admitted to the hospitals. Mandatory SARS-CoV-2 tests before/during admission were reported by 23 hospitals (95.8%), while 18 (75%) conducted regular testing during the hospital stay. Two hundred thirty-two (0.6%) patients were tested SARS-CoV-2-positive. Thirty-seven (16%) patients were receiving medical treatment for COVID-19 at the psychiatric hospital, ten (4.3%) were transferred to an intermediate/intensive care unit, and three (1.3%) died. The most common prescription for SARS-CoV-2-positive patients was for second-generation antipsychotics (n=79, 28.2%) and antidepressants (SSRIs (n=38, 13.5%), mirtazapine (n=36, 12.9%) and SNRIs (n=29, 10.4%)).

DISCUSSION

Contrary to previous studies, our results showed a low number of infections and mortality in SARS-CoV-2-positive psychiatric patients. Several preventive measures seem effective to protect this vulnerable group. Our observations are compatible with the hypothesis of a protective effect of psychotropic drugs against COVID-19 as the overall mortality and need for specific medical treatment was low.

Prevalence of cognitive impairments and strengths in the early course of psychosis and depression

BACKGROUND

Studies investigating cognitive impairments in psychosis and depression have typically compared the average performance of the clinical group against healthy controls (HC), and do not report on the actual prevalence of cognitive impairments or strengths within these clinical groups. This information is essential so that clinical services can provide adequate resources to supporting cognitive functioning. Thus, we investigated this prevalence in individuals in the early course of psychosis or depression.

METHODS

A comprehensive cognitive test battery comprising 12 tests was completed by 1286 individuals aged 15-41 (mean age 25.07, s.d. 5.88) from the PRONIA study at baseline: HC (N = 454), clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR; N = 270), recent-onset depression (ROD; N = 267), and recent-onset psychosis (ROP; N = 295). Z-scores were calculated to estimate the prevalence of moderate or severe deficits or strengths (>2 s.d. or 1-2 s.d. below or above HC, respectively) for each cognitive test.

RESULTS

Impairment in at least two cognitive tests was as follows: ROP (88.3% moderately, 45.1% severely impaired), CHR (71.2% moderately, 22.4% severely impaired), ROD (61.6% moderately, 16.2% severely impaired). Across clinical groups, impairments were most prevalent in tests of working memory, processing speed, and verbal learning. Above average performance (>1 s.d.) in at least two tests was present for 40.5% ROD, 36.1% CHR, 16.1% ROP, and was >2 SDs in 1.8% ROD, 1.4% CHR, and 0% ROP.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that interventions should be tailored to the individual, with working memory, processing speed, and verbal learning likely to be important transdiagnostic targets.

Neurocognitive skills and vulnerability for psychosis in depression and across the psychotic spectrum: findings from the PRONIA Consortium

BACKGROUND

Neurocognitive deficits are a core feature of psychosis and depression. Despite commonalities in cognitive alterations, it remains unclear if and how the cognitive deficits in patients at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) and those with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) are distinct from those seen in recent-onset depression (ROD).

AIMS

This study was carried out within the European project 'Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management', and aimed to characterise the cognitive profiles of patients with psychosis or depression.

METHOD

We examined cognitive profiles for patients with ROP (n = 105), patients with ROD (n = 123), patients at CHR (n = 116) and healthy controls (n = 372) across seven sites in five European countries. Confirmatory factor analysis identified four cognitive factors independent of gender, education and site: speed of processing, attention and working memory, verbal learning and spatial learning.

RESULTS

Patients with ROP performed worse than healthy controls in all four domains (P < 0.001), whereas performance of patients with ROD was not affected (P > 0.05). Patients at CHR performed worse than healthy controls in speed of processing (P = 0.001) and spatial learning (P = 0.003), but better than patients with ROP across all cognitive domains (all P ≤ 0.01). CHR and ROD groups did not significantly differ in any cognitive domain. These findings were independent of comorbid depressive symptoms, substance consumption and illness duration.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that neurocognitive abilities are affected in CHR and ROP, whereas ROD seems spared. Although our findings may support the notion that those at CHR have a specific vulnerability to psychosis, future studies investigating broader transdiagnostic risk cohorts in longitudinal designs are needed.

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) combined with unsupervised machine learning shows sensitivity to identify individuals in potential need for psychiatric assessment

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA), a structured diary assessment technique, has shown feasibility to capture psychotic(-like) symptoms across different study groups. We investigated whether EMA combined with unsupervised machine learning can distinguish groups on the continuum of genetic risk toward psychotic illness and identify individuals with need for extended healthcare. Individuals with psychotic disorder (PD, N = 55), healthy individuals (HC, N = 25) and HC with first-degree relatives with psychosis (RE, N = 20) were assessed at two sites over 7 days using EMA. Cluster analysis determined subgroups based on similarities in longitudinal trajectories of psychotic symptom ratings in EMA, agnostic of study group assignment. Psychotic symptom ratings were calculated as average of items related to hallucinations and paranoid ideas. Prior to EMA we assessed symptoms using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and the Community Assessment of Psychic Experience (CAPE) to characterize the EMA subgroups. We identified two clusters with distinct longitudinal EMA characteristics. Cluster 1 (NPD = 12, NRE = 1, NHC = 2) showed higher mean EMA symptom ratings as compared to cluster 2 (NPD = 43, NRE = 19, NHC = 23) (p < 0.001). Cluster 1 showed a higher burden on negative (p < 0.05) and positive (p < 0.05) psychotic symptoms in cross-sectional PANSS and CAPE ratings than cluster 2. Findings indicate a separation of PD with high symptom burden (cluster 1) from PD with healthy-like rating patterns grouping together with HC and RE (cluster 2). Individuals in cluster 1 might particularly profit from exchange with a clinician underlining the idea of EMA as clinical monitoring tool.

The heterogeneity of attenuated and brief limited psychotic symptoms: association of contents with age, sex, country, religion, comorbidities, and functioning

Introduction

The Attenuated Psychosis Symptoms (APS) syndrome mostly represents the ultra-high-risk state of psychosis but, as does the Brief Intermittent Psychotic Symptoms (BIPS) syndrome, shows a large variance in conversion rates. This may be due to the heterogeneity of APS/BIPS that may be related to the effects of culture, sex, age, and other psychiatric morbidities. Thus, we investigated the different thematic contents of APS and their association with sex, age, country, religion, comorbidity, and functioning to gain a better understanding of the psychosis-risk syndrome.

Method

A sample of 232 clinical high-risk subjects according to the ultra-high risk and basic symptom criteria was recruited as part of a European study conducted in Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and Finland. Case vignettes, originally used for supervision of inclusion criteria, were investigated for APS/BIPS contents, which were compared for sex, age, country, religion, functioning, and comorbidities using chi-squared tests and regression analyses.

Result

We extracted 109 different contents, mainly of APS (96.8%): 63 delusional, 29 hallucinatory, and 17 speech-disorganized contents. Only 20 contents (18.3%) were present in at least 5% of the sample, with paranoid and referential ideas being the most frequent. Thirty-one (28.5%) contents, in particular, bizarre ideas and perceptual abnormalities, demonstrated an association with age, country, comorbidity, or functioning, with regression models of country and obsessive-compulsive disorders explaining most of the variance: 55.8 and 38.3%, respectively. Contents did not differ between religious groups.

Conclusion

Psychosis-risk patients report a wide range of different contents of APS/BIPS, underlining the psychopathological heterogeneity of this group but also revealing a potential core set of contents. Compared to earlier reports on North-American samples, our maximum prevalence rates of contents were considerably lower; this likely being related to a stricter rating of APS/BIPS and cultural influences, in particular, higher schizotypy reported in North-America. The various associations of some APS/BIPS contents with country, age, comorbidities, and functioning might moderate their clinical severity and, consequently, the related risk for psychosis and/or persistent functional disability.

Disentangling heterogeneity of psychosis expression in the general population: sex-specific moderation effects of environmental risk factors on symptom networks

BACKGROUND

Psychosis expression in the general population may reflect a behavioral manifestation of the risk for psychotic disorder. It can be conceptualized as an interconnected system of psychotic and affective experiences; a so-called 'symptom network'. Differences in demographics, as well as exposure to adversities and risk factors, may produce substantial heterogeneity in symptom networks, highlighting potential etiological divergence in psychosis risk.

METHODS

To explore this idea in a data-driven way, we employed a novel recursive partitioning approach in the 2007 English National Survey of Psychiatric Morbidity (N = 7242). We sought to identify 'network phenotypes' by explaining heterogeneity in symptom networks through potential moderators, including age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, childhood abuse, separation from parents, bullying, domestic violence, cannabis use, and alcohol.

RESULTS

Sex was the primary source of heterogeneity in symptom networks. Additional heterogeneity was explained by interpersonal trauma (childhood abuse and domestic violence) in women and domestic violence, cannabis use, ethnicity in men. Among women, especially those exposed to early interpersonal trauma, an affective loading within psychosis may have distinct relevance. Men, particularly those from minority ethnic groups, demonstrated a strong network connection between hallucinatory experiences and persecutory ideation.

CONCLUSION

Symptom networks of psychosis expression in the general population are highly heterogeneous. The structure of symptom networks seems to reflect distinct sex-related adversities, etiologies, and mechanisms of symptom-expression. Disentangling the complex interplay of sex, minority ethnic group status, and other risk factors may help optimize early intervention and prevention strategies in psychosis.

The non-specific nature of mental health and structural brain outcomes following childhood trauma

BACKGROUND

Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with an increased risk of mental health disorders; however, it is unknown whether this represents a diagnosis-specific risk factor for specific psychopathology mediated by structural brain changes. Our aim was to explore whether (i) a predictive CT pattern for transdiagnostic psychopathology exists, and whether (ii) CT can differentiate between distinct diagnosis-dependent psychopathology. Furthermore, we aimed to identify the association between CT, psychopathology and brain structure.

METHODS

We used multivariate pattern analysis in data from 643 participants of the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management study (PRONIA), including healthy controls (HC), recent onset psychosis (ROP), recent onset depression (ROD), and patients clinically at high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Participants completed structured interviews and self-report measures including the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire, SCID diagnostic interview, BDI-II, PANSS, Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and structural MRI, analyzed by voxel-based morphometry.

RESULTS

(i) Patients and HC could be distinguished by their CT pattern with a reasonable precision [balanced accuracy of 71.2% (sensitivity = 72.1%, specificity = 70.4%, p ≤ 0.001]. (ii) Subdomains 'emotional neglect' and 'emotional abuse' were most predictive for CHR and ROP, while in ROD 'physical abuse' and 'sexual abuse' were most important. The CT pattern was significantly associated with the severity of depressive symptoms in ROD, ROP, and CHR, as well as with the PANSS total and negative domain scores in the CHR patients. No associations between group-separating CT patterns and brain structure were found.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that CT poses a transdiagnostic risk factor for mental health disorders, possibly related to depressive symptoms. While differences in the quality of CT exposure exist, diagnostic differentiation was not possible suggesting a multi-factorial pathogenesis.

The Eyes Have It: A Meta-analysis of Oculomotor Inhibition in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder

BACKGROUND

Diminished inhibitory control is one of the main characteristics of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and impairments in oculomotor inhibition have been proposed as a potential biomarker of the disorder. The present meta-analysis summarizes the effects reported in studies comparing oculomotor inhibition in ADHD patients and healthy control subjects.

METHODS

Inhibitory outcomes were derived from oculomotor experimental paradigms including the antisaccade (AS), memory-guided saccade, and prolonged fixation tasks. Temporal and spatial measures were also extracted from these tasks and from visually guided saccade tasks as secondary outcomes. Data were available from k = 31 studies (N = 1567 participants). Summary effect sizes were computed using random-effects models and a restricted maximum-likelihood estimator.

RESULTS

Among inhibitory outcomes, direction errors in AS, after correcting for publication bias, showed a moderate effect and large between-study heterogeneity (k = 18, n = 739, g = 0.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.27, 0.88], I²= 74%); anticipatory saccades in memory-guided saccade showed a large effect and low heterogeneity (k = 11, n = 487; g = 0.86, 95% CI [0.64, 1.08], I² = 17.7%); and saccades during prolonged fixation evidenced large effect size and heterogeneity (k = 6, n = 325 g = 1.11, 95% CI [0.56, 1.65], I² = 79.1%) partially related to age. Among secondary outcomes, saccadic reaction time in AS (k = 22, n = 932, g = 0.34, 95% CI [0.06, 0.63], I² = 53.12%) and coefficient of variability in visually guided saccade (k = 5, n = 282, g = 0.53, 95% CI [0.28, 0.78], I² = 0.01%) indicated significant effects with small to moderate effects sizes.

CONCLUSIONS

ADHD groups commit more oculomotor inhibition failures than control groups. The substantial effects support the conclusion that oculomotor disinhibition is a relevant ADHD-related mechanism. Moderate effects observed in saccadic reaction time variability suggest that fluctuant performance in oculomotor tasks is another relevant characteristic of ADHD.

Disentangling the impact of childhood abuse and neglect on depressive affect in adulthood: A machine learning approach in a general population sample

BACKGROUND

Different types of childhood maltreatment (CM) are key risk factors for psychopathology. Specifically, there is evidence for a unique role of emotional abuse in affective psychopathology in children and youth; however, its predictive power for depressive symptomatology in adulthood is still unknown. Additionally, emotional abuse encompasses several facets, but the strength of their individual contribution to depressive affect has not been examined.

METHOD

Here, we used a machine learning (ML) approach based on Random Forests to assess the performance of domain scores and individual items from the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) in predicting self-reported levels of depressive affect in an adult general population sample. Models were generated in a training sample (N = 769) and validated in an independent test sample (N = 466). Using state-of-the-art methods from interpretable ML, we identified the most predictive domains and facets of CM for adult depressive affect.

RESULTS

Models based on individual CM items explained more variance in the independent test sample than models based on CM domain scores (R² = 7.6 % vs. 6.4 %). Emotional abuse, particularly its more subjective components such as reactions to and appraisal of the abuse, emerged as the strongest predictors of adult depressive affect.

LIMITATIONS

Assessment of CM was retrospective and lacked information on timing and duration. Moreover, reported rates of CM and depressive affect were comparatively low.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings corroborate the strong role of subjective experience in CM-related psychopathology across the lifespan that necessitates greater attention in research, policy, and clinical practice.

Neurobiologically Based Stratification of Recent-Onset Depression and Psychosis: Identification of Two Distinct Transdiagnostic Phenotypes

BACKGROUND

Identifying neurobiologically based transdiagnostic categories of depression and psychosis may elucidate heterogeneity and provide better candidates for predictive modeling. We aimed to identify clusters across patients with recent-onset depression (ROD) and recent-onset psychosis (ROP) based on structural neuroimaging data. We hypothesized that these transdiagnostic clusters would identify patients with poor outcome and allow more accurate prediction of symptomatic remission than traditional diagnostic structures.

METHODS

HYDRA (Heterogeneity through Discriminant Analysis) was trained on whole-brain volumetric measures from 577 participants from the discovery sample of the multisite PRONIA study to identify neurobiologically driven clusters, which were then externally validated in the PRONIA replication sample (n = 404) and three datasets of chronic samples (Centre for Biomedical Research Excellence, n = 146; Mind Clinical Imaging Consortium, n = 202; Munich, n = 470).

RESULTS

The optimal clustering solution was two transdiagnostic clusters (cluster 1: n = 153, 67 ROP, 86 ROD; cluster 2: n = 149, 88 ROP, 61 ROD; adjusted Rand index = 0.618). The two clusters contained both patients with ROP and patients with ROD. One cluster had widespread gray matter volume deficits and more positive, negative, and functional deficits (impaired cluster), and one cluster revealed a more preserved neuroanatomical signature and more core depressive symptomatology (preserved cluster). The clustering solution was internally and externally validated and assessed for clinical utility in predicting 9-month symptomatic remission, outperforming traditional diagnostic structures.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified two transdiagnostic neuroanatomically informed clusters that are clinically and biologically distinct, challenging current diagnostic boundaries in recent-onset mental health disorders. These results may aid understanding of the etiology of poor outcome patients transdiagnostically and improve development of stratified treatments.

Relationships between global functioning and neuropsychological predictors in subjects at high risk of psychosis or with a recent onset of depression

OBJECTIVE

Psychotic disorders are frequently associated with decline in functioning and cognitive difficulties are observed in subjects at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. In this work, we applied automatic approaches to neurocognitive and functioning measures, with the aim of investigating the link between global, social and occupational functioning, and cognition.

METHODS

102 CHR subjects and 110 patients with recent onset depression (ROD) were recruited. Global assessment of functioning (GAF) related to symptoms (GAF-S) and disability (GAF-D). and global functioning social (GF-S) and role (GF-R), at baseline and of the previous month and year, and a set of neurocognitive measures, were used for classification and regression.

RESULTS

Neurocognitive measures related to GF-R at baseline (r = 0.20, p = 0.004), GF-S at present (r = 0.14, p = 0.042) and of the past year (r = 0.19, p = 0.005), for GAF-F of the past month (r = 0.24, p < 0.001) and GAF-D of the past year (r = 0.28, p = 0.002). Classification reached values of balanced accuracy of 61% for GF-R and GAF-D.

CONCLUSION

We found that neurocognition was related to psychosocial functioning. More specifically, a deficit in executive functions was associated to poor social and occupational functioning.

Chronic neuropsychiatric sequelae of SARS-CoV-2: Protocol and methods from the Alzheimer's Association Global Consortium

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused >3.5 million deaths worldwide and affected >160 million people. At least twice as many have been infected but remained asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. COVID-19 includes central nervous system manifestations mediated by inflammation and cerebrovascular, anoxic, and/or viral neurotoxicity mechanisms. More than one third of patients with COVID-19 develop neurologic problems during the acute phase of the illness, including loss of sense of smell or taste, seizures, and stroke. Damage or functional changes to the brain may result in chronic sequelae. The risk of incident cognitive and neuropsychiatric complications appears independent from the severity of the original pulmonary illness. It behooves the scientific and medical community to attempt to understand the molecular and/or systemic factors linking COVID-19 to neurologic illness, both short and long term.

Methods

This article describes what is known so far in terms of links among COVID-19, the brain, neurological symptoms, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias. We focus on risk factors and possible molecular, inflammatory, and viral mechanisms underlying neurological injury. We also provide a comprehensive description of the Alzheimer's Association Consortium on Chronic Neuropsychiatric Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (CNS SC2) harmonized methodology to address these questions using a worldwide network of researchers and institutions.

Results

Successful harmonization of designs and methods was achieved through a consensus process initially fragmented by specific interest groups (epidemiology, clinical assessments, cognitive evaluation, biomarkers, and neuroimaging). Conclusions from subcommittees were presented to the whole group and discussed extensively. Presently data collection is ongoing at 19 sites in 12 countries representing Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Europe.

Discussion

The Alzheimer's Association Global Consortium harmonized methodology is proposed as a model to study long-term neurocognitive sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Key Points

The following review describes what is known so far in terms of molecular and epidemiological links among COVID-19, the brain, neurological symptoms, and AD and related dementias (ADRD)The primary objective of this large-scale collaboration is to clarify the pathogenesis of ADRD and to advance our understanding of the impact of a neurotropic virus on the long-term risk of cognitive decline and other CNS sequelae. No available evidence supports the notion that cognitive impairment after SARS-CoV-2 infection is a form of dementia (ADRD or otherwise). The longitudinal methodologies espoused by the consortium are intended to provide data to answer this question as clearly as possible controlling for possible confounders. Our specific hypothesis is that SARS-CoV-2 triggers ADRD-like pathology following the extended olfactory cortical network (EOCN) in older individuals with specific genetic susceptibility.The proposed harmonization strategies and flexible study designs offer the possibility to include large samples of under-represented racial and ethnic groups, creating a rich set of harmonized cohorts for future studies of the pathophysiology, determinants, long-term consequences, and trends in cognitive aging, ADRD, and vascular disease.We provide a framework for current and future studies to be carried out within the Consortium. and offers a "green paper" to the research community with a very broad, global base of support, on tools suitable for low- and middle-income countries aimed to compare and combine future longitudinal data on the topic.The Consortium proposes a combination of design and statistical methods as a means of approaching causal inference of the COVID-19 neuropsychiatric sequelae. We expect that deep phenotyping of neuropsychiatric sequelae may provide a series of candidate syndromes with phenomenological and biological characterization that can be further explored. By generating high-quality harmonized data across sites we aim to capture both descriptive and, where possible, causal associations.

Exploring Links Between Psychosis and Frontotemporal Dementia Using Multimodal Machine Learning: Dementia Praecox Revisited

Importance

The behavioral and cognitive symptoms of severe psychotic disorders overlap with those seen in dementia. However, shared brain alterations remain disputed, and their relevance for patients in at-risk disease stages has not been explored so far.

Objective

To use machine learning to compare the expression of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patterns of behavioral-variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), Alzheimer disease (AD), and schizophrenia; estimate predictability in patients with bvFTD and schizophrenia based on sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; and examine prognostic value, genetic underpinnings, and progression in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or recent-onset depression (ROD).

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study included 1870 individuals from 5 cohorts, including (1) patients with bvFTD (n = 108), established AD (n = 44), mild cognitive impairment or early-stage AD (n = 96), schizophrenia (n = 157), or major depression (n = 102) to derive and compare diagnostic patterns and (2) patients with CHR (n = 160) or ROD (n = 161) to test patterns' prognostic relevance and progression. Healthy individuals (n = 1042) were used for age-related and cohort-related data calibration. Data were collected from January 1996 to July 2019 and analyzed between April 2020 and April 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Case assignments based on diagnostic patterns; sociodemographic, clinical, and biological data; 2-year functional outcomes and genetic separability of patients with CHR and ROD with high vs low pattern expression; and pattern progression from baseline to follow-up MRI scans in patients with nonrecovery vs preserved recovery.

Results

Of 1870 included patients, 902 (48.2%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 38.0 (19.3) years. The bvFTD pattern comprising prefrontal, insular, and limbic volume reductions was more expressed in patients with schizophrenia (65 of 157 [41.2%]) and major depression (22 of 102 [21.6%]) than the temporo-limbic AD patterns (28 of 157 [17.8%] and 3 of 102 [2.9%], respectively). bvFTD expression was predicted by high body mass index, psychomotor slowing, affective disinhibition, and paranoid ideation (R2 = 0.11). The schizophrenia pattern was expressed in 92 of 108 patients (85.5%) with bvFTD and was linked to the C9orf72 variant, oligoclonal banding in the cerebrospinal fluid, cognitive impairment, and younger age (R2 = 0.29). bvFTD and schizophrenia pattern expressions forecasted 2-year psychosocial impairments in patients with CHR and were predicted by polygenic risk scores for frontotemporal dementia, AD, and schizophrenia. Findings were not associated with AD or accelerated brain aging. Finally, 1-year bvFTD/schizophrenia pattern progression distinguished patients with nonrecovery from those with preserved recovery.

Conclusions and Relevance

Neurobiological links may exist between bvFTD and psychosis focusing on prefrontal and salience system alterations. Further transdiagnostic investigations are needed to identify shared pathophysiological processes underlying the neuroanatomical interface between the 2 disease spectra.

Transdiagnostic Psychopathology in a Help-Seeking Population of an Early Recognition Center for Mental Disorders: Protocol for an Experience Sampling Study

BACKGROUND

Prevention in psychiatry provides a promising way to address the burden of mental illness. However, established approaches focus on specific diagnoses and do not address the heterogeneity and manifold potential outcomes of help-seeking populations that present at early recognition services. Conceptualizing the psychopathology manifested in help-seeking populations from a network perspective of interacting symptoms allows transdiagnostic investigations beyond binary disease categories. Furthermore, modern technologies such as smartphones facilitate the application of the Experience Sampling Method (ESM).

OBJECTIVE

This study is a combination of ESM with network analyses to provide valid insights beyond the established assessment instruments in a help-seeking population.

METHODS

We will examine 75 individuals (aged 18-40 years) of the help-seeking population of the Cologne early recognition center. For a maximally naturalistic sample, only minimal exclusion criteria will be applied. We will collect data for 14 days using a mobile app to assess 10 transdiagnostic symptoms (ie, depressive, anxious, and psychotic symptoms) as well as distress level 5 times a day. With these data, we will generate average group-level symptom networks and personalized symptom networks using a 2-step multilevel vector autoregressive model. Additionally, we will explore associations between symptom networks and sociodemographic, risk, and resilience factors, as well as psychosocial functioning.

RESULTS

The protocol was designed in February 2020 and approved by the Ethics Committee of the University Hospital Cologne in October 2020. The protocol was reviewed and funded by the Köln Fortune program in September 2020. Data collection began in November 2020 and was completed in November 2021. Of the 258 participants who were screened, 93 (36%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were willing to participate in the study. Of these 93 participants, 86 (92%) completed the study. The first results are expected to be published in 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

This study will provide insights about the feasibility and utility of the ESM in a help-seeking population of an early recognition center. Providing the first explorative phenotyping of transdiagnostic psychopathology in this population, our study will contribute to the innovation of early recognition in psychiatry. The results will help pave the way for prevention and targeted early intervention in a broader patient group, and thus, enable greater intended effects in alleviating the burden of psychiatric disorders.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/35206.

Clinical, Brain, and Multilevel Clustering in Early Psychosis and Affective Stages

Importance

Approaches are needed to stratify individuals in early psychosis stages beyond positive symptom severity to investigate specificity related to affective and normative variation and to validate solutions with premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk measures.

Objective

To use machine learning techniques to cluster, compare, and combine subgroup solutions using clinical and brain structural imaging data from early psychosis and depression stages.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A multisite, naturalistic, longitudinal cohort study (10 sites in 5 European countries; including major follow-up intervals at 9 and 18 months) with a referred patient sample of those with clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), recent-onset psychosis (ROP), recent-onset depression (ROD), and healthy controls were recruited between February 1, 2014, to July 1, 2019. Data were analyzed between January 2020 and January 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

A nonnegative matrix factorization technique separately decomposed clinical (287 variables) and parcellated brain structural volume (204 gray, white, and cerebrospinal fluid regions) data across CHR-P, ROP, ROD, and healthy controls study groups. Stability criteria determined cluster number using nested cross-validation. Validation targets were compared across subgroup solutions (premorbid, longitudinal, and schizophrenia polygenic risk scores). Multiclass supervised machine learning produced a transferable solution to the validation sample.

Results

There were a total of 749 individuals in the discovery group and 610 individuals in the validation group. Individuals included those with CHR-P (n = 287), ROP (n = 323), ROD (n = 285), and healthy controls (n = 464), The mean (SD) age was 25.1 (5.9) years, and 702 (51.7%) were female. A clinical 4-dimensional solution separated individuals based on positive symptoms, negative symptoms, depression, and functioning, demonstrating associations with all validation targets. Brain clustering revealed a subgroup with distributed brain volume reductions associated with negative symptoms, reduced performance IQ, and increased schizophrenia polygenic risk scores. Multilevel results distinguished between normative and illness-related brain differences. Subgroup results were largely validated in the external sample.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this longitudinal cohort study provide stratifications beyond the expression of positive symptoms that cut across illness stages and diagnoses. Clinical results suggest the importance of negative symptoms, depression, and functioning. Brain results suggest substantial overlap across illness stages and normative variation, which may highlight a vulnerability signature independent from specific presentations. Premorbid, longitudinal, and genetic risk validation suggested clinical importance of the subgroups to preventive treatments.

A network approach to relationships between cannabis use characteristics and psychopathology in the general population

Cannabis use characteristics, such as earlier initiation and frequent use, have been associated with an increased risk for developing psychotic experiences and psychotic disorders. However, little is known how these characteristics relate to specific aspects of sub-clinical psychopathology in the general population. Here, we explore the relationships between cannabis use characteristics and psychopathology in a large general population sample (N = 2,544, mean age 29.2 years, 47% women) by employing a network approach. This allows for the identification of unique associations between two cannabis use characteristics (lifetime cumulative frequency of cannabis use, age of cannabis use initiation), and specific psychotic experiences and affective symptoms, while controlling for early risk factors (childhood trauma, urban upbringing). We found particularly pronounced unique positive associations between frequency of cannabis use and specific delusional experiences (persecutory delusions and thought broadcasting). Age of cannabis use initiation was negatively related to visual hallucinatory experiences and irritability, implying that these experiences become more likely the earlier use is initiated. Earlier initiation, but not lifetime frequency of cannabis use, was related to early risk factors. These findings suggest that cannabis use characteristics may contribute differentially to risk for specific psychotic experiences and affective symptoms in the general population.

(Attenuated) hallucinations join basic symptoms in a transdiagnostic network cluster analysis

Hallucinations are considered characteristic symptoms of psychosis and part of the 'psychosis superspectrum' of the Hierarchical Taxonomy Of Psychopathology (HiTOP) initiative. To gain insight into their psychopathological relevance, we studied their dimensional placement within a single dense transdiagnostic network constituting of basic symptoms as well as of attenuated and frank psychotic, and related symptoms. Newman's modularity analysis was used to detect symptom clusters in an earlier generated network (Jimeno, N., et al., 2020. Main symptomatic treatment targets in suspected and early psychosis: New insights from network analysis. Schizophr. Bull. 46, 884-895. https://doi.org/10.1093/schbul/sbz140). The constituting 86 symptoms were assessed with the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult version (SPI-A), the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS), and the Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) in three adult samples of an early detection service: clinical high-risk (n = 203), first-episode psychosis (n = 153), and major depression (n = 104). Three clusters were detected: "subjective disturbances", "positive symptoms and behaviors", and "negative and anxious-depressive symptoms". The predominately attenuated hallucinations of both SIPS and PANSS joined the basic symptoms in "subjective disturbances", whereas other positive symptoms entered "positive symptoms and behaviors". Our results underline the importance of insight in separating true psychotic hallucinations from other hallucinatory experiences that, albeit phenomenologically similar are still experienced with some insight, i.e., are present in an attenuated form. We conclude that, strictly, hallucinations held with any degree of insight should not be used to diagnose transition to or presence of frank psychoses and, relatedly, to justify antipsychotic medication.

Evidence of discontinuity between psychosis-risk and non-clinical samples in the neuroanatomical correlates of social function

Objective

Social dysfunction is a major feature of clinical-high-risk states for psychosis (CHR-P). Prior research has identified a neuroanatomical pattern associated with impaired social function outcome in CHR-P. The aim of the current study was to test whether social dysfunction in CHR-P is neurobiologically distinct or in a continuum with the lower end of the normal distribution of individual differences in social functioning.

Methods

We used a machine learning classifier to test for the presence of a previously validated brain structural pattern associated with impaired social outcome in CHR-P (CHR-outcome-neurosignature) in the neuroimaging profiles of individuals from two non-clinical samples (total n = 1763) and examined its association with social function, psychopathology and cognition.

Results

Although the CHR-outcome-neurosignature could be detected in a subset of the non-clinical samples, it was not associated was adverse social outcomes or higher psychopathology levels. However, participants whose neuroanatomical profiles were highly aligned with the CHR-outcome-neurosignature manifested subtle disadvantage in fluid (P_FDR = 0.004) and crystallized intelligence (P_FDR = 0.01), cognitive flexibility (P_FDR = 0.02), inhibitory control (P_FDR = 0.01), working memory (P_FDR = 0.0005), and processing speed (P_FDR = 0.04).

Conclusions

We provide evidence of divergence in brain structural underpinnings of social dysfunction derived from a psychosis-risk enriched population when applied to non-clinical samples. This approach appears promising in identifying brain mechanisms bound to psychosis through comparisons of patient populations to non-clinical samples with the same neuroanatomical profiles.

Personality traits differentiate patients with bipolar disorder and healthy controls - A meta-analytic approach

BACKGROUND

Expression of specific personality traits has been associated with the presence and disease course of bipolar disorder (BD) in multiple studies. However, until today findings are inconsistent and potentially confounding factors such as age and gender as well as the limited sample size of previous studies make it difficult to generalize these findings. To overcome these limitations and to specify the role of personality traits in the context of BD, we performed a meta-analysis in patients with BD and healthy controls (HC), focusing on the traits of the big three and the big five: Neuroticism (N), Extraversion (E), Openness (O), Conscientiousness (C), Agreeableness (A) and Psychoticism (P).

METHODS

Two online databases (Pubmed and Web of Science) were searched systematically to identify relevant articles, including publications up to December 31, 2019. From studies that met our inclusion criteria (n = 18), we extracted relevant data of patients with BD (n = 1694) and HC (n = 2153) and calculated effect sizes for each personality trait. Further, we performed moderator analysis on gender, age, quality score and years of publication.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that patients with BD exhibit higher scores on N (large positive effect size; n = 18, g = 1.44, 95%-CI : 1.11 to 1.77) and lower scores on C (medium negative effect size; n = 6, g = -0.78, 95%-CI: -1.13 to -0.43) and E (small negative effect size; n = 13, g = -0.38, 95%-CI: -0.52 to -0.23) compared to HC. We found a moderating effect of mean age on the effect size of N with smaller differences in N levels between patients with BD and HC in older samples (-0.0437, z = - 3.96, p <0.0001). Our results were robust with respect to potential publication biases and the inclusion of potentially confounding factors such as gender, age, quality score and years of publication.

LIMITATIONS

Due to the lack of available data no subgroup analysis on the effect of mood states of patients and subtypes of BD could be performed. Moreover, our analyses are based on cross-sectional data so that findings should be interpreted with care, especially concerning causal conclusions.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with BD showed differences in several personality traits compared to HC. Our results provide the basis for future research with focus on personality and psychopathology in patients with BD. Identifying the interaction between expressions of personality traits and BD might provide novel approaches in prevention and therapy.

Pattern of predictive features of continued cannabis use in patients with recent-onset psychosis and clinical high-risk for psychosis

Continued cannabis use (CCu) is an important predictor for poor long-term outcomes in psychosis and clinically high-risk patients, but no generalizable model has hitherto been tested for its ability to predict CCu in these vulnerable patient groups. In the current study, we investigated how structured clinical and cognitive assessments and structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) contributed to the prediction of CCu in a group of 109 patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP). We tested the generalizability of our predictors in 73 patients at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR). Here, CCu was defined as any cannabis consumption between baseline and 9-month follow-up, as assessed in structured interviews. All patients reported lifetime cannabis use at baseline. Data from clinical assessment alone correctly classified 73% (p < 0.001) of ROP and 59 % of CHR patients. The classifications of CCu based on sMRI and cognition were non-significant (ps > 0.093), and their addition to the interview-based predictor via stacking did not improve prediction significantly, either in the ROP or CHR groups (ps > 0.065). Lower functioning, specific substance use patterns, urbanicity and a lack of other coping strategies contributed reliably to the prediction of CCu and might thus represent important factors for guiding preventative efforts. Our results suggest that it may be possible to identify by clinical measures those psychosis-spectrum patients at high risk for CCu, potentially allowing to improve clinical care through targeted interventions. However, our model needs further testing in larger samples including more diverse clinical populations before being transferred into clinical practice.

Using combined environmental-clinical classification models to predict role functioning outcome in clinical high-risk states for psychosis and recent-onset depression

BACKGROUND

Clinical high-risk states for psychosis (CHR) are associated with functional impairments and depressive disorders. A previous PRONIA study predicted social functioning in CHR and recent-onset depression (ROD) based on structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) and clinical data. However, the combination of these domains did not lead to accurate role functioning prediction, calling for the investigation of additional risk dimensions. Role functioning may be more strongly associated with environmental adverse events than social functioning.

AIMS

We aimed to predict role functioning in CHR, ROD and transdiagnostically, by adding environmental adverse events-related variables to clinical and sMRI data domains within the PRONIA sample.

METHOD

Baseline clinical, environmental and sMRI data collected in 92 CHR and 95 ROD samples were trained to predict lower versus higher follow-up role functioning, using support vector classification and mixed k-fold/leave-site-out cross-validation. We built separate predictions for each domain, created multimodal predictions and validated them in independent cohorts (74 CHR, 66 ROD).

RESULTS

Models combining clinical and environmental data predicted role outcome in discovery and replication samples of CHR (balanced accuracies: 65.4% and 67.7%, respectively), ROD (balanced accuracies: 58.9% and 62.5%, respectively), and transdiagnostically (balanced accuracies: 62.4% and 68.2%, respectively). The most reliable environmental features for role outcome prediction were adult environmental adjustment, childhood trauma in CHR and childhood environmental adjustment in ROD.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support the hypothesis that environmental variables inform role outcome prediction, highlight the existence of both transdiagnostic and syndrome-specific predictive environmental adverse events, and emphasise the importance of implementing real-world models by measuring multiple risk dimensions.

Does childhood trauma predict schizotypal traits? A path modelling approach in a cohort of help-seeking subjects

Schizotypy constitutes a susceptibility to beneficial and deleterious schizotypal traits, ranging from coping mechanisms to schizotypal personality disorder on a psychosis continuum. Growing evidence indicates a relationship between childhood adversity and trauma and schizotypy. However, the exact influence of childhood adversity and trauma on schizotypy and its relation to sex is not sufficiently understood. Therefore, we investigated sex-adjusted connections between childhood adversity and trauma subdomains (emotional/physical/sexual abuse, emotional/physical neglect) and positive (magical ideation, perceptual aberration) as well as negative schizotypy (physical/social anhedonia). In total, 240 outpatients of the Early Detection and Intervention Centre of the University Hospital Cologne were assessed with the Trauma and Distress Scale for childhood adversity and trauma and the Wisconsin Schizotypy Scales for schizotypy. Path analyses were performed to investigate sex-adjusted correlations. The well-fitting path model of the total sample linked emotional abuse to magical ideation (p = 0.03; SE = 0.20) and emotional neglect to social anhedonia (p = 0.01; SE = 0.26). In females, physical abuse predicted magical ideation (p = 0.01; SE = 0.33), while emotional neglect forecasted physical anhedonia (p = 0.03; SE = 0.34) and social anhedonia (p = 0.03; SE = 0.32). In males, sexual abuse predicted perceptive aberration (p = 0.04; SE = 0.19) and emotional abuse forecasted magical ideation (p = 0.03; SE = 0.27). Overall, the significance of sex-specific interrelations between trauma and schizotypy were highlighted. Magical ideation and perceptive aberration occurred prominently in the absence of negative and disorganized schizotypy, thus positive schizotypy could be discussed as a beneficial expression of coping with emotional, physical and sexual abuse. Furthermore, emotional neglect should be addressed particularly to prevent deleterious negative schizotypy in females.Trial registration number (20-1243), date of registration (May 19th 2020), retrospectively registered.

Insecure attachment as a transdiagnostic risk factor for major psychiatric conditions: A meta-analysis in bipolar disorder, depression and schizophrenia spectrum disorder

Insecure attachment has been suggested as a major risk factor for mental health problems as well as a key element for the development and trajectory of psychiatric disorders. The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess whether insecure attachment constitutes a global transdiagnostic risk factor in bipolar disorder, depression, and schizophrenia spectrum disorders. We conducted a PRISMA-based systematic quantitative review to explore the prevalence of insecure attachment among patients of three representative psychiatric disorders - major depression, schizophrenia spectrum disorders and bipolar disorder - in comparison with healthy controls (HC) from a transdiagnostic point of view. Effect sizes on differences of anxious, avoidant and insecure prevalence were calculated based on 40 samples including a total of n = 2927 individuals. Overall, results indicated a large effect on prevalence of insecure attachment across all disorders compared to HC (k = 30, g = 0.88, I² = 71.0%, p < 0.001). In a transdiagnostic comparison, the only difference was found in avoidant attachment, which was significantly lower (p = 0.04) compared to HC in the schizophrenia spectrum disorder subgroup (k = 10, g = 0.31, I² = 76.60%, p < 0.0001) than the depression subgroup subgroup (k = 12, g = 0.83, I² = 46.65%, p < 0.0001). The lack of further transdiagnostic differences between three distinct psychiatric disorders corroborates insecure attachment as a general vulnerability factor to psychopathology. Our findings warrant further investigations, which should explore the pathways from attachment insecurity towards psychopathology. Insecure attachment likely has implications on assessment, prediction and treatment of psychiatric patients.

Relationships between childhood trauma and perceived stress in the general population: a network perspective

BACKGROUND

Experiences of childhood trauma (CT) are associated with increased psychological vulnerability. Past research suggests that CT might alter stress processing with a subsequent negative impact on mental health. However, it is currently unclear how different domains of CT exert effects on specific subjective experiences of stress during adulthood.

METHODS

In the present study, we used network analysis to explore the complex interplay between distinct domains of CT and perceived stress in a large, general-population sample of middle-aged adults (N = 1252). We used a data-driven community-detection algorithm to identify strongly connected subgroups of items within the network. To assess the replicability of the findings, we repeated the analyses in a second sample (N = 862). Combining data from both samples, we evaluated network differences between men (n = 955) and women (n = 1159).

RESULTS

Results indicate specific associations between distinct domains of CT and perceived stress. CT domains reflecting a dimension of deprivation, i.e. experiences of neglect, were associated exclusively to a stress network community representing low perceived self-efficacy. By contrast, CT associated with threat, i.e. experiences of abuse, was specifically related to a stress community reflecting perceived helplessness. Our results replicated with high accordance in the second sample. We found no difference in network structure between men and women, but overall a stronger connected network in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings emphasize the unique role of distinct domains of CT in psychological stress processes in adulthood, implying opportunities for targeted interventions following distinct domains of CT.

Toward Generalizable and Transdiagnostic Tools for Psychosis Prediction: An Independent Validation and Improvement of the NAPLS-2 Risk Calculator in the Multisite PRONIA Cohort

BACKGROUND

Transition to psychosis is among the most adverse outcomes of clinical high-risk (CHR) syndromes encompassing ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom states. Clinical risk calculators may facilitate an early and individualized interception of psychosis, but their real-world implementation requires thorough validation across diverse risk populations, including young patients with depressive syndromes.

METHODS

We validated the previously described NAPLS-2 (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study 2) calculator in 334 patients (26 with transition to psychosis) with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) drawn from the multisite European PRONIA (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management) study. Patients were categorized into three risk enrichment levels, ranging from UHR, over CHR, to a broad-risk population comprising patients with CHR or ROD (CHR|ROD). We assessed how risk enrichment and different predictive algorithms influenced prognostic performance using reciprocal external validation.

RESULTS

After calibration, the NAPLS-2 model predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy (BAC) (sensitivity, specificity) of 68% (73%, 63%) in the PRONIA-UHR cohort, 67% (74%, 60%) in the CHR cohort, and 70% (73%, 66%) in patients with CHR|ROD. Multiple model derivation in PRONIA-CHR|ROD and validation in NAPLS-2-UHR patients confirmed that broader risk definitions produced more accurate risk calculators (CHR|ROD-based vs. UHR-based performance: 67% [68%, 66%] vs. 58% [61%, 56%]). Support vector machines were superior in CHR|ROD (BAC = 71%), while ridge logistic regression and support vector machines performed similarly in CHR (BAC = 67%) and UHR cohorts (BAC = 65%). Attenuated psychotic symptoms predicted psychosis across risk levels, while younger age and reduced processing speed became increasingly relevant for broader risk cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical-neurocognitive machine learning models operating in young patients with affective and CHR syndromes facilitate a more precise and generalizable prediction of psychosis. Future studies should investigate their therapeutic utility in large-scale clinical trials.

Detailed clinical phenotyping and generalisability in prognostic models of functioning in at-risk populations

Personalised prediction of functional outcomes is a promising approach for targeted early intervention in psychiatry. However, generalisability and resource efficiency of such prognostic models represent challenges. In the PRONIA study (German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00005042), we demonstrate excellent generalisability of prognostic models in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis or with recent-onset depression, and substantial contributions of detailed clinical phenotyping, particularly to the prediction of role functioning. These results indicate that it is possible that functioning prediction models based only on clinical data could be effectively applied in diverse healthcare settings, so that neuroimaging data may not be needed at early assessment stages.

Novel Gyrification Networks Reveal Links with Psychiatric Risk Factors in Early Illness

Adult gyrification provides a window into coordinated early neurodevelopment when disruptions predispose individuals to psychiatric illness. We hypothesized that the echoes of such disruptions should be observed within structural gyrification networks in early psychiatric illness that would demonstrate associations with developmentally relevant variables rather than specific psychiatric symptoms. We employed a new data-driven method (Orthogonal Projective Non-Negative Matrix Factorization) to delineate novel gyrification-based networks of structural covariance in 308 healthy controls. Gyrification within the networks was then compared to 713 patients with recent onset psychosis or depression, and at clinical high-risk. Associations with diagnosis, symptoms, cognition, and functioning were investigated using linear models. Results demonstrated 18 novel gyrification networks in controls as verified by internal and external validation. Gyrification was reduced in patients in temporal-insular, lateral occipital, and lateral fronto-parietal networks (pFDR < 0.01) and was not moderated by illness group. Higher gyrification was associated with better cognitive performance and lifetime role functioning, but not with symptoms. The findings demonstrated that gyrification can be parsed into novel brain networks that highlight generalized illness effects linked to developmental vulnerability. When combined, our study widens the window into the etiology of psychiatric risk and its expression in adulthood.

Sex Matters: A Multivariate Pattern Analysis of Sex- and Gender-Related Neuroanatomical Differences in Cis- and Transgender Individuals Using Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Univariate analyses of structural neuroimaging data have produced heterogeneous results regarding anatomical sex- and gender-related differences. The current study aimed at delineating and cross-validating brain volumetric surrogates of sex and gender by comparing the structural magnetic resonance imaging data of cis- and transgender subjects using multivariate pattern analysis. Gray matter (GM) tissue maps of 29 transgender men, 23 transgender women, 35 cisgender women, and 34 cisgender men were created using voxel-based morphometry and analyzed using support vector classification. Generalizability of the models was estimated using repeated nested cross-validation. For external validation, significant models were applied to hormone-treated transgender subjects (n = 32) and individuals diagnosed with depression (n = 27). Sex was identified with a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 82.6% (false discovery rate [pFDR] < 0.001) in cisgender, but only with 67.5% (pFDR = 0.04) in transgender participants indicating differences in the neuroanatomical patterns associated with sex in transgender despite the major effect of sex on GM volume irrespective of the self-identification as a woman or man. Gender identity and gender incongruence could not be reliably identified (all pFDR > 0.05). The neuroanatomical signature of sex in cisgender did not interact with depressive features (BAC = 74.7%) but was affected by hormone therapy when applied in transgender women (P < 0.001).

Is there a diagnosis-specific influence of childhood trauma on later educational attainment? A machine learning analysis in a large help-seeking sample

BACKGROUND

Childhood adversities and trauma (CAT) are associated with poor functional outcome. However, the influence of the single CAT aspects on the risk of a poor functional outcome within different mental disorders has not been investigated so far. Our aims were (i) to predict individual functional outcome based on CAT (ii) to examine whether the prediction power differs within different diagnostic groups (clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR), psychosis, affective disorders, anxiety disorders) (iii) to compare the specific patterns of CAT experiences, influencing functional outcomes in these groups.

METHOD

Clinical data of 707 patients (mean age: 25.09 years (SD = 5.6), 65.5% male) of the Cologne Early Recognition and Intervention Center were assessed with the Trauma And Distress Scale. Functional outcome was estimated by the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale and school educational attainment. Using machine learning, we generated individualized models to predict functional outcome and to identify specific CAT patterns.

RESULTS

Across the entire sample, the best prediction for the functional outcome achieved a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 0.6. After splitting into the single diagnostic groups, an improvement with best results in the psychosis group (BAC = 0.70) was observed. Considering specific CAT patterns, the most predictive items depicted a positive and caring environment - or the absence of these, a positive self-image and experiences of bullying.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that CAT was differentially associated with functional outcome in the various mental disorders. Thus, the importance of mediating variables, that might explain the interindividual differences in the vulnerability to CAT, like resilience factors, appeared to be crucial.

Parsing the antidepressant effects of non-invasive brain stimulation and pharmacotherapy: A symptom clustering approach on ELECT-TDCS

BACKGROUND

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) presents small antidepressant efficacy at group level and considerable inter-individual variability of response. Its heterogeneous effects bring the need to investigate whether specific groups of patients submitted to tDCS could present comparable or larger improvement compared to pharmacotherapy. Aggregate measurements might be insufficient to address its effects.

OBJECTIVE

/Hypothesis: To determine the efficacy of tDCS, compared to pharmacotherapy and placebo, in depressive symptom clusters.

METHODS

Data from ELECT-TDCS (Escitalopram versus Electrical Direct-Current Therapy for Treating Depression Clinical Study, ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01894815), in which antidepressant-free, depressed patients were randomized to receive 22 bifrontal tDCS (2 mA, 30 min) sessions (n = 94), escitalopram 20 mg/day (n = 91), or placebo (n = 60) over 10 weeks. Agglomerative hierarchical clustering identified "sleep/insomnia", "core depressive", "guilt/anxiety", and "atypical" clusters that were the dependent measure. Trajectories were estimated using linear mixed regression models. Effect sizes are expressed in raw HAM-D units. P-values were adjusted for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

For core depressive symptoms, escitalopram was superior to tDCS (ES = -0.56; CI_95% = -0.94 to -0.17, p = .009), which was superior to placebo (ES = 0.49; CI_95% = 0.06 to 0.92, p = .042). TDCS but not escitalopram was superior to placebo in sleep/insomnia symptoms (ES = 0.87; CI_95% = 0.22 to 1.52, p = .015). Escitalopram but not tDCS was superior to placebo in guilt/anxiety symptoms (ES = 1.66; CI_95% = 0.58 to 2.75, p = .006). No active intervention was superior to placebo for atypical symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacotherapy and non-invasive brain stimulation produce distinct effects in depressive symptoms. TDCS or escitalopram could be chosen according to specific clusters of symptoms for a bigger response.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01894815.

The intervention, the patient and the illness - Personalizing non-invasive brain stimulation in psychiatry

Current hypotheses on the therapeutic action of non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) in psychiatric disorders build on the abundant data from neuroimaging studies. This makes NIBS a very promising tool for developing personalized interventions within a precision medicine framework. NIBS methods fundamentally vary in their neurophysiological properties. They comprise repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) and its variants (e.g. theta burst stimulation - TBS) as well as different types of transcranial electrical stimulation (tES), with the largest body of evidence for transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). In the last two decades, significant conceptual progress has been made in terms of NIBS targets, i.e. from single brain regions to neural circuits and to functional connectivity as well as their states, recently leading to brain state modulating closed-loop approaches. Regarding structural and functional brain anatomy, NIBS meets an individually unique constellation, which varies across normal and pathophysiological states. Thus, individual constitutions and signatures of disorders may be indistinguishable at a given time point, but can theoretically be parsed along course- and treatment-related trajectories. We address precision interventions on three levels: 1) the NIBS intervention, 2) the constitutional factors of a single patient, and 3) the phenotypes and pathophysiology of illness. With examples from research on depressive disorders, we propose solutions and discuss future perspectives, e.g. individual MRI-based electrical field strength as a proxy for NIBS dosage, and also symptoms, their clusters, or biotypes instead of disorder focused NIBS. In conclusion, we propose interleaved research on these three levels along a general track of reverse and forward translation including both clinically directed research in preclinical model systems, and biomarker guided controlled clinical trials. Besides driving the development of safe and efficacious interventions, this framework could also deepen our understanding of psychiatric disorders at their neurophysiological underpinnings.

Brain Network Simulations Indicate Effects of Neuregulin-1 Genotype on Excitation-Inhibition Balance in Cortical Dynamics

Neuregulin-1 (NRG1) represents an important factor for multiple processes including neurodevelopment, brain functioning or cognitive functions. Evidence from animal research suggests an effect of NRG1 on the excitation-inhibition (E/I) balance in cortical circuits. However, direct evidence for the importance of NRG1 in E/I balance in humans is still lacking. In this work, we demonstrate the application of computational, biophysical network models to advance our understanding of the interaction between cortical activity observed in neuroimaging and the underlying neurobiology. We employed a biophysical neuronal model to simulate large-scale brain dynamics and to investigate the role of polymorphisms in the NRG1 gene (rs35753505, rs3924999) in n = 96 healthy adults. Our results show that G/G-carriers (rs3924999) exhibit a significant difference in global coupling (P = 0.048) and multiple parameters determining E/I-balance such as excitatory synaptic coupling (P = 0.047), local excitatory recurrence (P = 0.032) and inhibitory synaptic coupling (P = 0.028). This indicates that NRG1 may be related to excitatory recurrence or excitatory synaptic coupling potentially resulting in altered E/I-balance. Moreover, we suggest that computational modeling is a suitable tool to investigate specific biological mechanisms in health and disease.

A multivariate neuromonitoring approach to neuroplasticity-based computerized cognitive training in recent onset psychosis

Two decades of studies suggest that computerized cognitive training (CCT) has an effect on cognitive improvement and the restoration of brain activity. Nevertheless, individual response to CCT remains heterogenous, and the predictive potential of neuroimaging in gauging response to CCT remains unknown. We employed multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) on whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) to (neuro)monitor clinical outcome defined as psychosis-likeness change after 10-hours of CCT in recent onset psychosis (ROP) patients. Additionally, we investigated if sensory processing (SP) change during CCT is associated with individual psychosis-likeness change and cognitive gains after CCT. 26 ROP patients were divided into maintainers and improvers based on their SP change during CCT. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier separating 56 healthy controls (HC) from 35 ROP patients using rsFC (balanced accuracy of 65.5%, P < 0.01) was built in an independent sample to create a naturalistic model representing the HC-ROP hyperplane. This model was out-of-sample cross-validated in the ROP patients from the CCT trial to assess associations between rsFC pattern change, cognitive gains and SP during CCT. Patients with intact SP threshold at baseline showed improved attention despite psychosis status on the SVM hyperplane at follow-up (p < 0.05). Contrarily, the attentional gains occurred in the ROP patients who showed impaired SP at baseline only if rsfMRI diagnosis status shifted to the healthy-like side of the SVM continuum. Our results reveal the utility of MVPA for elucidating treatment response neuromarkers based on rsFC-SP change and pave the road to more personalized interventions.

Towards clinical application of prediction models for transition to psychosis: A systematic review and external validation study in the PRONIA sample

A multitude of prediction models for a first psychotic episode in individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis have been proposed, but only rarely validated. We identified transition models based on clinical and neuropsychological data through a registered systematic literature search and evaluated their external validity in 173 CHRs from the Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) study. Discrimination performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared to the prediction of clinical raters. External discrimination performance varied considerably across the 22 identified models (AUC 0.40-0.76), with two models showing good discrimination performance. None of the tested models significantly outperformed clinical raters (AUC = 0.75). Combining predictions of clinical raters and the best model descriptively improved discrimination performance (AUC = 0.84). Results show that personalized prediction of transition in CHR is potentially feasible on a global scale. For implementation in clinical practice, further rounds of external validation, impact studies, and development of an ethical framework is necessary.

Heterogeneity and Classification of Recent Onset Psychosis and Depression: A Multimodal Machine Learning Approach

Diagnostic heterogeneity within and across psychotic and affective disorders challenges accurate treatment selection, particularly in the early stages. Delineation of shared and distinct illness features at the phenotypic and brain levels may inform the development of more precise differential diagnostic tools. We aimed to identify prototypes of depression and psychosis to investigate their heterogeneity, with common, comorbid transdiagnostic symptoms. Analyzing clinical/neurocognitive and grey matter volume (GMV) data from the PRONIA database, we generated prototypic models of recent-onset depression (ROD) vs. recent-onset psychosis (ROP) by training support-vector machines to separate patients with ROD from patients with ROP, who were selected for absent comorbid features (pure groups). Then, models were applied to patients with comorbidity, ie, ROP with depressive symptoms (ROP+D) and ROD participants with sub-threshold psychosis-like features (ROD+P), to measure their positions within the affective-psychotic continuum. All models were independently validated in a replication sample. Comorbid patients were positioned between pure groups, with ROP+D patients being more frequently classified as ROD compared to pure ROP patients (clinical/neurocognitive model: χ2 = 14.874; P < .001; GMV model: χ2 = 4.933; P = .026). ROD+P patient classification did not differ from ROD (clinical/neurocognitive model: χ2 = 1.956; P = 0.162; GMV model: χ2 = 0.005; P = .943). Clinical/neurocognitive and neuroanatomical models demonstrated separability of prototypic depression from psychosis. The shift of comorbid patients toward the depression prototype, observed at the clinical and biological levels, suggests that psychosis with affective comorbidity aligns more strongly to depressive rather than psychotic disease processes. Future studies should assess how these quantitative measures of comorbidity predict outcomes and individual responses to stratified therapeutic interventions.

Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression

IMPORTANCE

Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems.

RESULTS

A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.