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Dobor L, Baldo M, Bílek L, Barka I, Máliš F, Štěpánek P, Hlásny T. The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17194. [PMID: 38385958 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Marco Baldo
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Lukáš Bílek
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - František Máliš
- National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
- Faculty of Forestry, Technical University Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
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Hajbabaie M, Jozi SA, Farsad F, Kiadaliri H, Gharagozlou A. Model of ecological resilience in Hyrcanian forests that combines the decision-making trial and evaluation method (DEMATEL) and system dynamics. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:448. [PMID: 36881184 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11054-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The present study assessed the resilience model of Hyrcanian forests with Navroud-Asalem watershed as a case study. The Navroud-Assalem watershed was selected for study because of its special environmental characteristics and access to relatively acceptable information. In order to model resilience, the appropriate indices influencing resilience in Hyrcanian forests were identified and selected. The criteria of biological diversity and forest health and vitality were selected along with the indices of species diversity, forest-type diversity, mixed stands, and the infected area percentage forests with disturbance factors. Thirteen sub-indices and 33 variables were determined and the relationship between the indices and criteria was identified by developing a questionnaire using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The weights of each index were estimated in Vensim software using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Collecting and analyzing the regional information, the conceptual model was developed and formulated quantitatively and mathematically and was entered into Vensim for resilience modeling of the selected parcels. The DEMATEL method indicated that the species diversity indices and the percentage of affected forests had the greatest influence and interaction with other factors in the system. The parcels studied had different slopes and were affected by the input variables. They were considered as resilient if they were found to maintain current conditions. Avoidance of exploitation, infestation by pests, severe fires in the region, and increased livestock grazing compared to the existing situation were among the prerequisites for resilience in the region. Vensim modeling represents that in control parcel no. 232 the nondimensional resilience parameter is 3025 (the most resilient parcel), while in the disturbed parcel no. 278 this amount is 1775 (the least resilient parcel).
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahdyeh Hajbabaie
- Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyed Ali Jozi
- Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Forough Farsad
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hadi Kiadaliri
- Department of Environment and Forest Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Alireza Gharagozlou
- Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
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Climate Benefit of Different Tree Species on Former Agricultural Land in Northern Europe. FORESTS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/f12121810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
The new European Union Forest Strategy for 2030 aims to plant an additional 3 billion trees on non-forest land to mitigate climate change. However, the choice of tree species for afforestation to achieve the maximum climate benefit is unclear. We compared the climate benefit of six different species in terms of carbon (C) sequestration in biomass and the harvested wood substitution in products to avoid carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-based materials over the 100-year period by afforesting about ¼ of the available area in northern Europe. The highest climate benefit was observed for larch, both at a stand scale (1626 Mg CO2 eqv. ha−1) and at the landscape level for the studied scenario (579 million Mg CO2 eqv.). Larch was followed by Norway spruce, poplar, hybrid aspen and birch, showing a climate benefit about 40–50% lower than that for larch. The climate benefit of willow was about 70% lower than larch. Willow showed 6–14-fold lower C stocks at the landscape level after 100 years than other tree species. The major climate benefit over the 100-year period comes from wood substitution and avoided emissions, but C stock buildup at the landscape level also removes significant amounts of CO2 already present in the atmosphere. The choice of tree species is important to maximize climate change mitigation.
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Huber N, Bugmann H, Cailleret M, Bircher N, Lafond V. Stand-scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02313. [PMID: 33630399 PMCID: PMC8243936 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Revised: 10/08/2020] [Accepted: 11/30/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
The increasing impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems have triggered multiple model-based impact assessments for the future, which typically focused either on a small number of stand-scale case studies or on large scale analyses (i.e., continental to global). Therefore, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the local impacts over large areas (i.e., regions to countries), which is particularly problematic for forest management. We provide a comprehensive, high-resolution assessment of the climate change sensitivity of managed Swiss forests (~10,000 km2 ), which cover a wide range of environmental conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to project the development of typical forest stands derived from a stratification of the Third National Forest Inventory until the end of the 22nd century. Two types of simulations were conducted: one limited to using the extant local species, the other enabling immigration of potentially more climate-adapted species. Moreover, to assess the robustness of our projections, we quantified and decomposed the uncertainty in model projections resulting from the following sources: (1) climate change scenarios, (2) local site conditions, and (3) the dynamic vegetation model itself (i.e., represented by a set of model versions), an aspect hitherto rarely taken into account. The simulations showed substantial changes in basal area and species composition, with dissimilar sensitivity to climate change across and within elevation zones. Higher-elevation stands generally profited from increased temperature, but soil conditions strongly modulated this response. Low-elevation stands were increasingly subject to drought, with strong negative impacts on forest growth. Furthermore, current stand structure had a strong effect on the simulated response. The admixture of drought-tolerant species was found advisable across all elevations to mitigate future adverse climate-induced effects. The largest uncertainty in model projections was associated with climate change scenarios. Uncertainty induced by the model version was generally largest where overall simulated climate change impacts were small, thus corroborating the utility of the model for making projections into the future. Yet, the large influence of both site conditions and the model version on some of the projections indicates that uncertainty sources other than climate change scenarios need to be considered in climate change impact assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nica Huber
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
- Remote SensingSwiss Federal Research Institute WSLZürcherstrasse 111Birmensdorf8903Switzerland
| | - Harald Bugmann
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
| | - Maxime Cailleret
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
- INRAEUMR RECOVERAix‐Marseille University3275 route de CézanneAix‐en‐Provence cedex 5CS40061France
| | - Nicolas Bircher
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
| | - Valentine Lafond
- Forest EcologyDepartment of Environmental Systems ScienceInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichUniversitätstrasse 16Zurich8092Switzerland
- Department of Forest Resources ManagementFaculty of ForestryForest Sciences CentreUniversity of British Columbia2424 Main MallVancouverBritish ColumbiaV6T 1Z4Canada
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Bosela M, Tumajer J, Cienciala E, Dobor L, Kulla L, Marčiš P, Popa I, Sedmák R, Sedmáková D, Sitko R, Šebeň V, Štěpánek P, Büntgen U. Climate warming induced synchronous growth decline in Norway spruce populations across biogeographical gradients since 2000. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 752:141794. [PMID: 32898800 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2020] [Revised: 08/11/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Covering large parts of Europe, Norway spruce (Picea abies L Karst.) plays an important role in the adaptation strategy of forest services to future climate change. Although dendroecology can provide valuable information on the past relationships between tree growth and climate, most previous studies were biased towards species-specific distribution limits, where old individuals grow slowly under extreme conditions. In the present study, we investigated the growth variability and climate sensitivity of 2851 Norway spruce trees along longitudinal (E 12-26°), latitudinal (N 45-51°), and elevation (118-1591 m a.s.l.) gradients in central-eastern Europe. We reveal that summer weather significantly affects the radial growth of spruce trees, but the effects strongly vary along biogeographical gradients. Extreme summer heatwaves in 2000 and 2003 reduced the growth rates by 10-35%, most pronounced in the southern Carpathians. In contrast to the population in the Czech Republic, climate warming induced a synchronous decline in the growth rates across biogeographical gradients in the Carpathian arc. By demonstrating the increased vulnerability of Norway spruce under warmer climate conditions, we recommended that the forest services and conservation managers replace or admix monocultures of this species with more drought-resilient mixtures including fir, beech and other broadleaved species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michal Bosela
- Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia; National Forest Centre, T.G. Masaryka 22, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia.
| | - Jan Tumajer
- IFER - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research, 254 01 Jilove u Prahy, Czech Republic; University of Greifswald, Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology, Soldmannstraße 15, 17487 Greifswald, Germany; Charles University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Albertov 6, 12843 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Emil Cienciala
- IFER - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research, 254 01 Jilove u Prahy, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Laura Dobor
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Ladislav Kulla
- National Forest Centre, T.G. Masaryka 22, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Peter Marčiš
- Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Ionel Popa
- National Research and Development Institute for Silviculture "Marin Drăcea", Calea Bucovinei, 76bis, Câmpulung Moldovenesc 725100, Romania; Center of Mountain Economy (INCE - CE-MONT), Petreni, 49, Vatra Dornei, 725700, Romania
| | - Róbert Sedmák
- Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Denisa Sedmáková
- Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Roman Sitko
- Technical University in Zvolen, T.G. Masaryka 24, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Vladimír Šebeň
- National Forest Centre, T.G. Masaryka 22, 96001 Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Ulf Büntgen
- Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place CB2 3EN, UK; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstr 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Department of Geography, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
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Albrich K, Rammer W, Turner MG, Ratajczak Z, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Seidl R. Simulating forest resilience: A review. GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY : A JOURNAL OF MACROECOLOGY 2020; 29:2082-2096. [PMID: 33380902 PMCID: PMC7756463 DOI: 10.1111/geb.13197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2020] [Revised: 08/18/2020] [Accepted: 09/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
AIM Simulation models are important tools for quantifying the resilience (i.e., persistence under changed environmental conditions) of forest ecosystems to global change. We synthesized the modelling literature on forest resilience, summarizing common models and applications in resilience research, and scrutinizing the implementation of important resilience mechanisms in these models. Models applied to assess resilience are highly diverse, and our goal was to assess how well they account for important resilience mechanisms identified in experimental and empirical research. LOCATION Global. TIME PERIOD 1994 to 2019. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED Trees. METHODS We reviewed the forest resilience literature using online databases, selecting 119 simulation modelling studies for further analysis. We identified a set of resilience mechanisms from the general resilience literature and analysed models for their representation of these mechanisms. Analyses were grouped by investigated drivers (resilience to what) and responses (resilience of what), as well as by the type of model being used. RESULTS Models used to study forest resilience varied widely, from analytical approaches to complex landscape simulators. The most commonly addressed questions were associated with resilience of forest cover to fire. Important resilience mechanisms pertaining to regeneration, soil processes, and disturbance legacies were explicitly simulated in only 34 to 46% of the model applications. MAIN CONCLUSIONS We found a large gap between processes identified as underpinning forest resilience in the theoretical and empirical literature, and those represented in models used to assess forest resilience. Contemporary forest models developed for other goals may be poorly suited for studying forest resilience during an era of accelerating change. Our results highlight the need for a new wave of model development to enhance understanding of and management for resilient forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharina Albrich
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaWienAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaWienAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative BiologyUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Integrative BiologyUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative BiologyUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | | | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaWienAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
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Nikinmaa L, Lindner M, Cantarello E, Jump AS, Seidl R, Winkel G, Muys B. Reviewing the Use of Resilience Concepts in Forest Sciences. CURRENT FORESTRY REPORTS 2020; 6:61-80. [PMID: 35747899 PMCID: PMC7612878 DOI: 10.1007/s40725-020-00110-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Resilience is a key concept to deal with an uncertain future in forestry. In recent years, it has received increasing attention from both research and practice. However, a common understanding of what resilience means in a forestry context and how to operationalise it is lacking. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the recent forest science literature on resilience in the forestry context, synthesizing how resilience is defined and assessed. RECENT FINDINGS Based on a detailed review of 255 studies, we analysed how the concepts of engineering resilience, ecological resilience and social-ecological resilience are used in forest sciences. A clear majority of the studies applied the concept of engineering resilience, quantifying resilience as the recovery time after a disturbance. The two most used indicators for engineering resilience were basal area increment and vegetation cover, whereas ecological resilience studies frequently focus on vegetation cover and tree density. In contrast, important social-ecological resilience indicators used in the literature are socioeconomic diversity and stock of natural resources. In the context of global change, we expected an increase in studies adopting the more holistic social-ecological resilience concept, but this was not the observed trend. SUMMARY Our analysis points to the nestedness of these three resilience concepts, suggesting that they are complementary rather than contradictory. It also means that the variety of resilience approaches does not need to be an obstacle for operationalisation of the concept. We provide guidance for choosing the most suitable resilience concept and indicators based on the management, disturbance and application context.
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Affiliation(s)
- L. Nikinmaa
- European Forest Institute, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 7, 53113 Bonn, Germany
- Division of Forest, Nature and Landscape, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
| | - M. Lindner
- European Forest Institute, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 7, 53113 Bonn, Germany
| | - E. Cantarello
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Bournemouth University, Poole BH12 5BB, UK
| | - A. S. Jump
- Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK
| | - R. Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna, Peter Jordan Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - G. Winkel
- European Forest Institute, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 7, 53113 Bonn, Germany
| | - B. Muys
- Division of Forest, Nature and Landscape, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, Box 2411, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
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Xie Y, Wang H, Lei X. Simulation of climate change and thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China using 3-PG mix model. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2020; 261:110249. [PMID: 32148315 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2019] [Revised: 01/21/2020] [Accepted: 02/05/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the effects of thinning on forest productivity under climate change is vital to adaptive forest management. In the present study, the 3-PGmix model was applied to simulate the thinning effects on productivity of Larix olgensis plantations under climate change using 164 sample plots collected from the 6th, 7th and 8th National Forest Inventories in Jilin Province, northeast China. Climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were adopted from 2011 to 2100 with corresponding reference years (1981-2010). We simulated four cutting intensities: no-thinning, NT; low intensity thinning with 10% stem removal, LT; moderate thinning with 20% stem removal, MT and heavy thinning with 30% stem removal, HT for three times with 5- and 10-year thinning intervals. The results indicated that the mean net primary productivity (NPP) during the simulated 90 years was increased under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The LT and MT had positive but HT had negative effects on the mean NPP for the same climate scenario. Increased thinning intensity facilitated the positive effects of climate change on NPP but without a significant interaction effect. During the simulation, LT had the highest NPP value and HT had the biggest NPP increase under future climate change. We also discussed the management of larch plantations under climate change and advocated low intensity thinning with 10-year thinning interval to gain maximum NPP for mitigating climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yalin Xie
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, 100083, Beijing, China.
| | - Haiyan Wang
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, 100083, Beijing, China.
| | - Xiangdong Lei
- College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, 100083, Beijing, China; Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, 100091, China.
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Honkaniemi J, Rammer W, Seidl R. Norway spruce at the trailing edge: the effect of landscape configuration and composition on climate resilience. LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 2020; 35:591-606. [PMID: 32214662 PMCID: PMC7081663 DOI: 10.1007/s10980-019-00964-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Accepted: 12/27/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT Norway spruce (Picea abies) is one of the most widespread tree species in Europe's forests. Due to its high economic value it has been strongly favored by management, especially at the trailing edge of its natural distribution. However, disturbances from wind and bark beetles are increasingly impacting these forests, and their resilience under climate change has been called into question recently. OBJECTIVES We quantified the effects of landscape configuration and composition on (1) the risk from natural disturbances, and (2) on the overall resilience of Norway spruce to changing climate at the trailing edge. METHODS We simulated the dynamics of a 9183 ha forest landscape in Eastern Austria over 190 years. We used the simulation model iLand to experimentally study a wide range of landscape compositions and configurations under five different climate scenarios. RESULTS Natural disturbances increased considerably under all future climate scenarios. Dispersing Norway spruce throughout the landscape in mixed stands resulted in the highest levels of climate resilience. Reducing the percentage of Norway spruce on the landscape increased the resilience of the remaining Norway spruce trees, yet landscape configuration generally had a stronger effect on resilience than composition. CONCLUSIONS The resilience of Norway spruce at the trailing edge of its distribution is challenged by climate change, and considerable efforts are needed to sustain these ecosystems. While currently discussed adaptation measures focus largely on the stand level, we show that modifying landscape composition and configuration can be used to foster Norway spruce resilience while maintaining socio-economically relevant proportions of Norway spruce.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juha Honkaniemi
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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Seidl R, Albrich K, Erb K, Formayer H, Leidinger D, Leitinger G, Tappeiner U, Tasser E, Rammer W. What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape? FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2019; 445:37-47. [PMID: 35645457 DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.7850954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Katharina Albrich
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Karlheinz Erb
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Herbert Formayer
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - David Leidinger
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Georg Leitinger
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Ulrike Tappeiner
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestr. 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Erich Tasser
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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11
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Seidl R, Albrich K, Erb K, Formayer H, Leidinger D, Leitinger G, Tappeiner U, Tasser E, Rammer W. What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape? FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2019; 445:37-47. [PMID: 35645457 PMCID: PMC7612773 DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Forest ecosystems provide a wide variety of ecosystem services to society. In harsh mountain environments, the regulating services of forests are of particular importance. Managing mountain forests for regulating services is a cost- and labor intensive endeavor. Yet, also unmanaged forests regulate the environment. In the context of evidence-based decision making it is thus important to scrutinize if current management recommendations improve the supply of regulating ecosystem services over unmanaged development trajectories. A further issue complicating decision making in the context of regulating ecosystem services is their high sensitivity to climate change. Climate-mediated increases in natural disturbances, for instance, could strongly reduce the supply of regulating services from forests in the future. Given the profound environmental changes expected for the coming decades it remains unclear whether forest management will still be able to significantly control the future trajectories of mountain forest development, or whether the management effect will be superseded by a much stronger climate and disturbance effect. Here, our objectives were (i) to quantify the future regulating service supply from a 6456 ha landscape in the Stubai valley in Tyrol, Austria, and (ii) to assess the relative importance of management, climate, and natural disturbances on the future supply of regulating ecosystem services. We focused our analysis on climate regulation, water regulation, and erosion regulation, and used the landscape simulation model iLand to quantify their development under different climate scenarios and management strategies. Our results show that unmanaged forests are efficient in providing regulating ecosystem services. Both climate regulation and erosion regulation were higher in unmanaged systems compared to managed systems, while water regulation was slightly enhanced by management. Overall, direct effects of climate change had a stronger influence on the future supply of regulating services than management and natural disturbances. The ability of management to control ecosystem service supply decreased sharply with the severity of future climate change. This finding highlights that forest management could be severely stymied in the future if climate change continues to proceed at its current rate. An improved quantitative understanding of the drivers of future ecosystem service supply is needed to more effectively combine targeted management efforts and natural ecosystem dynamics towards sustaining the benefits society derives from forests in a rapidly changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
- Corresponding Author. (R. Seidl)
| | - Katharina Albrich
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Karlheinz Erb
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Herbert Formayer
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - David Leidinger
- Institute of Meteorology, Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Gregor Mendel Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Georg Leitinger
- Institute of Social Ecology, Department of Economics and Social Sciences (WiSo), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria
| | - Ulrike Tappeiner
- Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestr. 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Erich Tasser
- Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Drususallee 1, 39100 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest-and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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12
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Dobor L, Hlásny T, Rammer W, Barka I, Trombik J, Pavlenda P, Šebeň V, Štepánek P, Seidl R. Post-disturbance recovery of forest carbon in a temperate forest landscape under climate change. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 2018; 263:308-322. [PMID: 35633776 PMCID: PMC7612774 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.08.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Disturbances alter composition, structure, and functioning of forest ecosystems, and their legacies persist for decades to centuries. We investigated how temperate forest landscapes may recover their carbon (C) after severe wind and bark beetle disturbance, while being exposed to climate change. We used the forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to quantify (i) the recovery times of the total ecosystem C, (ii) the effect of climate change on C recovery, and (iii) the differential factors contributing to C recovery. We reconstructed a recent disturbance episode (2008-2016) based on Landsat satellite imagery, which affected 39% of the forest area in the 16,000 ha study landscape. We subsequently simulated forest recovery under a continuation of business-asusual management until 2100. Our results indicated that the recovery of the pre-disturbance C stocks (C payback time) was reached 17 years after the end of the disturbance episode. The C stocks of a theoretical undisturbed development trajectory were reached 30 years after the disturbance episode (C sequestration parity). Drier and warmer climates delayed simulated C recovery. Without the fertilizing effect of CO2, C payback times were delayed by 5-9 years, while C parity was not reached within the 21st century. Recovery was accelerated by an enhanced C uptake compared to undisturbed conditions (disturbance legacy sink effect) that persisted for 35 years after the disturbance episode. Future climate could have negative impacts on forest recovery and thus further amplify climate change through C loss from ecosystems, but the effect is strongly contingent on the magnitude and persistence of alleviating CO2 effects. Our modelling study highlights the need to consider both negative and positive effects of disturbance (i.e., C loss immediately after an event vs. enhanced C uptake of the recovering forest) in order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of disturbance effects on the forest C cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
- Corresponding author. (T. Hlásny)
| | - Werner Rammer
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Jiří Trombik
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Pavol Pavlenda
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Vladimír Šebeň
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Petr Štepánek
- Global Change Research Institute CAS, Belidla 986/4a, Brno 603 00, Czech Republic
| | - Rupert Seidl
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
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13
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Collalti A, Trotta C, Keenan TF, Ibrom A, Bond‐Lamberty B, Grote R, Vicca S, Reyer CPO, Migliavacca M, Veroustraete F, Anav A, Campioli M, Scoccimarro E, Šigut L, Grieco E, Cescatti A, Matteucci G. Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate. JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 2018; 10:2427-2452. [PMID: 31007835 PMCID: PMC6472666 DOI: 10.1029/2018ms001275] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2018] [Revised: 09/10/2018] [Accepted: 09/16/2018] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Forest carbon use efficiency (CUE, the ratio of net to gross primary productivity) represents the fraction of photosynthesis that is not used for plant respiration. Although important, it is often neglected in climate change impact analyses. Here we assess the potential impact of thinning on projected carbon cycle dynamics and implications for forest CUE and its components (i.e., gross and net primary productivity and plant respiration), as well as on forest biomass production. Using a detailed process-based forest ecosystem model forced by climate outputs of five Earth System Models under four representative climate scenarios, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected future changes in the autotrophic carbon budget of three representative European forests. We focus on changes in CUE and carbon stocks as a result of warming, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and forest thinning. Results show that autotrophic carbon sequestration decreases with forest development, and the decrease is faster with warming and in unthinned forests. This suggests that the combined impacts of climate change and changing CO2 concentrations lead the forests to grow faster, mature earlier, and also die younger. In addition, we show that under future climate conditions, forest thinning could mitigate the decrease in CUE, increase carbon allocation into more recalcitrant woody pools, and reduce physiological-climate-induced mortality risks. Altogether, our results show that thinning can improve the efficacy of forest-based mitigation strategies and should be carefully considered within a portfolio of mitigation options.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessio Collalti
- Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services DivisionFoundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)ViterboItaly
- National Research Council of ItalyInstitute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR‐ISAFOM)RendeItaly
| | - Carlo Trotta
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro‐food and Forest SystemsUniversity of TusciaViterboItaly
| | - Trevor F. Keenan
- Earth Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeleyCAUSA
- Department of Environmental Science Policy and ManagementUniversity of CaliforniaBerkeleyCAUSA
| | - Andreas Ibrom
- Department Environmental EngineeringTechnical University of Denmark (DTU)LyngbyDenmark
| | - Ben Bond‐Lamberty
- Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryJoint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland‐College ParkCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - Ruediger Grote
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK‐IFU)Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKarlsruheGermany
| | - Sara Vicca
- Centre of Excellence PLECO (Pant and Vegetation Ecology), Department of BiologyUniversity of AntwerpAntwerpBelgium
| | | | | | | | - Alessandro Anav
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
| | - Matteo Campioli
- Department Environmental EngineeringTechnical University of Denmark (DTU)LyngbyDenmark
| | - Enrico Scoccimarro
- Climate Simulation and Prediction DivisionFoundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)BolognaItaly
| | - Ladislav Šigut
- Department of Matter and Energy FluxesGlobal Change Research Institute CASBrnoCzech Republic
| | - Elisa Grieco
- Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services DivisionFoundation Euro‐Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)ViterboItaly
| | - Alessandro Cescatti
- Directorate for Sustainable ResourcesEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreIspraItaly
| | - Giorgio Matteucci
- National Research Council of ItalyInstitute for Agriculture and Forestry Systems in the Mediterranean (CNR‐ISAFOM)RendeItaly
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14
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Seidl R, Albrich K, Thom D, Rammer W. Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2018; 209:46-56. [PMID: 29275284 PMCID: PMC5873512 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.12.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2017] [Revised: 11/20/2017] [Accepted: 12/07/2017] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria.
| | - Katharina Albrich
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Dominik Thom
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
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15
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Augustaitis A, Augustaitienė I, Baugarten M, Bičenkienė S, Girgždienė R, Kulbokas G, Linkevičius E, Marozas V, Mikalajūnas M, Mordas G, Mozgeris G, Petrauskas E, Pivoras A, Šidlauskas G, Ulevičius V, Vitas A, Matyssek R. Tree-ring formation as an indicator of forest capacity to adapt to the main threats of environmental changes in Lithuania. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 615:1247-1261. [PMID: 29751430 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.09.169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2017] [Revised: 09/14/2017] [Accepted: 09/16/2017] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Global changes occurring under different environmental conditions have changed stand competition, as well as nutrient and light availability, which has resulted in changes in productivity. Therefore, in the present study, the characteristics of tree-ring width formation of the prevailing Lithuanian tree species, Norway spruce, Scots pine and silver and downy birch, and key factors resulting in their differences during the last 36-year period were investigated at forest sites located on poor mineral oligotrophic and on nutrient-rich organic mesoeutrophic soils. The aim of the study was as follows: first, to separately detect the maximum possible seasonal effect of three groups of variables - meteorology, acidifying pollutants and surface ozone on the stem basal area increment (BAI) of the evaluated tree species; second, to assess the significance of each group of variables affecting the BAI of these tree species integrally with the remaining groups of variables. Norway spruce was found to be well adapted to recent environmental changes, which makes it one of the most favourable tree species for silviculture in the northeastern part of Europe. The rapid increases recorded in growth intensity since 1980 were attributed to the increase in air temperature, precipitation amount, nitrogen deposition during the vegetative stage and reductions in SO2 concentrations and S deposition. Scots pine demonstrated the highest level of resilience and capacity to adapt to recent global changes because its reaction to both negative and favourable environmental factors was best expressed. Silver and downy birch tree reactions to the effects of air concentrations of acidifying compounds, their deposition and surface ozone concentrations were the least expressed; however, a significant decline in growth intensity indicated that these tree species experienced a reduced resistance to recent changes in environmental conditions in the mature and over-mature age groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Algirdas Augustaitis
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | | | - Manuela Baugarten
- Chair Ecophysiology of Plants, Dep. Ecology, WZW, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany.
| | - Steigvilė Bičenkienė
- Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Saulėtekio ave. 3, Vilnius, Lithuania.
| | - Raselė Girgždienė
- Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Saulėtekio ave. 3, Vilnius, Lithuania.
| | - Gintaras Kulbokas
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Edgaras Linkevičius
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Vitas Marozas
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Marius Mikalajūnas
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Genrik Mordas
- Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Saulėtekio ave. 3, Vilnius, Lithuania.
| | - Gintautas Mozgeris
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Edmundas Petrauskas
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Ainis Pivoras
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Giedrius Šidlauskas
- Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Studentų 13, LT-53362, Kaunas dstr, Lithuania.
| | - Vidmantas Ulevičius
- Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Saulėtekio ave. 3, Vilnius, Lithuania.
| | - Adomas Vitas
- Vytautas Magnum University, Centre of Environmental Research, Faculty of Nature Sciences, Vytautas Magnus University, Ž.E. Žilibero str. 2, LT-46324 Kaunas, Lithuania.
| | - Rainer Matyssek
- Chair Ecophysiology of Plants, Dep. Ecology, WZW, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany.
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16
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Senf C, Pflugmacher D, Hostert P, Seidl R. Using Landsat time series for characterizing forest disturbance dynamics in the coupled human and natural systems of Central Europe. ISPRS JOURNAL OF PHOTOGRAMMETRY AND REMOTE SENSING : OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHOTOGRAMMETRY AND REMOTE SENSING (ISPRS) 2017; 130:453-463. [PMID: 28860678 PMCID: PMC5572776 DOI: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2017.07.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Remote sensing is a key information source for improving the spatiotemporal understanding of forest ecosystem dynamics. Yet, the mapping and attribution of forest change remains challenging, particularly in areas where a number of interacting disturbance agents simultaneously affect forest development. The forest ecosystems of Central Europe are coupled human and natural systems, with natural and human disturbances affecting forests both individually and in combination. To better understand the complex forest disturbance dynamics in such systems, we utilize 32-year Landsat time series to map forest disturbances in five sites across Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia. All sites consisted of a National Park and the surrounding forests, reflecting three management zones of different levels of human influence (managed, protected, strictly protected). This allowed for a comparison of spectral, temporal, and spatial disturbance patterns across a gradient from natural to coupled human and natural disturbances. Disturbance maps achieved overall accuracies ranging from 81% to 93%. Disturbance patches were generally small, with 95% of the disturbances being smaller than 10 ha. Disturbance rates ranged from 0.29% yr-1 to 0.95% yr-1, and differed substantially among management zones and study sites. Natural disturbances in strictly protected areas were longer in duration (median of 8 years) and slightly less variable in magnitude compared to human-dominated disturbances in managed forests (median duration of 1 year). However, temporal dynamics between natural and human-dominated disturbances showed strong synchrony, suggesting that disturbance peaks are driven by natural events affecting managed and unmanaged areas simultaneously. Our study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing for mapping forest disturbances in coupled human and natural systems, such as the forests of Central Europe. Yet, we also highlight the complexity of such systems in terms of agent attribution, as many natural disturbances are modified by management responding to them outside protected areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cornelius Senf
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- Institute for Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Dirk Pflugmacher
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Patrick Hostert
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- Integrative Research Institute on Transformation of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute for Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Str. 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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17
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Thom D, Rammer W, Seidl R. The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes. ECOL MONOGR 2017; 87:665-684. [PMID: 29628526 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Thom
- Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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18
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Kulakowski D, Seidl R, Holeksa J, Kuuluvainen T, Nagel TA, Panayotov M, Svoboda M, Thorn S, Vacchiano G, Whitlock C, Wohlgemuth T, Bebi P. A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2017; 388:120-131. [PMID: 28860677 PMCID: PMC5572638 DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.037] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an emerging body of literature, and recent increasing disturbances due to climate change are challenging long-held views of dynamics in these ecosystems. Here, we synthesize aspects of this Special Issue on the ecology of mountain forest ecosystems in Europe in the context of broader discussions in the field, to present a new perspective on these ecosystems and their natural disturbance regimes. Most mountain forests in Europe, for which long-term data are available, show a strong and long-term effect of not only human land use but also of natural disturbances that vary by orders of magnitude in size and frequency. Although these disturbances may kill many trees, the forests themselves have not been threatened. The relative importance of natural disturbances, land use, and climate change for ecosystem dynamics varies across space and time. Across the continent, changing climate and land use are altering forest cover, forest structure, tree demography, and natural disturbances, including fires, insect outbreaks, avalanches, and wind disturbances. Projected continued increases in forest area and biomass along with continued warming are likely to further promote forest disturbances. Episodic disturbances may foster ecosystem adaptation to the effects of ongoing and future climatic change. Increasing disturbances, along with trends of less intense land use, will promote further increases in coarse woody debris, with cascading positive effects on biodiversity, edaphic conditions, biogeochemical cycles, and increased heterogeneity across a range of spatial scales. Together, this may translate to disturbance-mediated resilience of forest landscapes and increased biodiversity, as long as climate and disturbance regimes remain within the tolerance of relevant species. Understanding ecological variability, even imperfectly, is integral to anticipating vulnerabilities and promoting ecological resilience, especially under growing uncertainty. Allowing some forests to be shaped by natural processes may be congruent with multiple goals of forest management, even in densely settled and developed countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Kulakowski
- Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, MA, USA
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
- Corresponding author at: Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, MA, USA. (D. Kulakowski)
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
| | - Jan Holeksa
- Adam Mickiewicz University, Faculty of Biology, Department of Plant Ecology and Environment Protection, Umultowska 89, 61-614 Poznań, Poland
| | - Timo Kuuluvainen
- Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Thomas A. Nagel
- Department of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | | | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Simon Thorn
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Glashüttenstraße 5, 96181 Rauhenebrach, Germany
| | - Giorgio Vacchiano
- Università degli Studi di Torino, DISAFA, Largo Braccini 2, 10095 Grugliasco (TO), Italy
| | - Cathy Whitlock
- Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - Thomas Wohlgemuth
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Peter Bebi
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland
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