Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application

BACKGROUND

We analyze the forest carbon stock development following the recent historically unprecedented dieback of coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The drought-induced bark-beetle infestation resulted in record-high sanitary logging and total harvest more than doubled from the previous period. It turned Czech forestry from a long-term carbon sink offsetting about 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 to a significant source of CO2 emissions in recent years (2018-2021). In 2020, the forestry sector contributed nearly 10% to the country's overall GHG emissions. Using the nationally calibrated Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) at a regional (NUTS3) spatial resolution, we analyzed four scenarios of forest carbon stock development until 2070. Two critical points arise: the short-term prognosis for reducing current emissions from forestry and the implementation of adaptive forest management focused on tree species change and sustained carbon accumulation.

RESULTS

This study used four different spruce forest dieback scenarios to assess the impact of adaptive forest management on the forest carbon stock change and CO2 emissions, tree species composition, harvest possibilities, and forest structure in response to the recent unprecedented calamitous dieback in the Czech Republic. The model analysis indicates that Czech forestry may stabilize by 2025 Subsequently, it may become a sustained sink of about 3 Mt CO2 eq./year (excluding the contribution of harvested wood products), while enhancing forest resilience by the gradual implementation of adaptation measures. The speed of adaptation is linked to harvest intensity and severity of the current calamity. Under the pessimistic Black scenario, the proportion of spruce stands declines from the current 43-20% by 2070, in favor of more suited tree species such as fir and broadleaves. These species would also constitute over 50% of the harvest potential, increasingly contributing to harvest levels like those generated by Czech forestry prior to the current calamity. The standing stock would only be recovered in 50 years under the optimistic Green scenario.

CONCLUSION

The results show progress of adaptive management by implementing tree species change and quantify the expected harvest and mitigation potential in Czech forestry until 2070.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers.

The 2018 European heatwave led to stem dehydration but not to consistent growth reductions in forests

Heatwaves exert disproportionately strong and sometimes irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems. These impacts remain poorly understood at the tree and species level and across large spatial scales. Here, we investigate the effects of the record-breaking 2018 European heatwave on tree growth and tree water status using a collection of high-temporal resolution dendrometer data from 21 species across 53 sites. Relative to the two preceding years, annual stem growth was not consistently reduced by the 2018 heatwave but stems experienced twice the temporary shrinkage due to depletion of water reserves. Conifer species were less capable of rehydrating overnight than broadleaves across gradients of soil and atmospheric drought, suggesting less resilience toward transient stress. In particular, Norway spruce and Scots pine experienced extensive stem dehydration. Our high-resolution dendrometer network was suitable to disentangle the effects of a severe heatwave on tree growth and desiccation at large-spatial scales in situ, and provided insights on which species may be more vulnerable to climate extremes.

Climate warming induced synchronous growth decline in Norway spruce populations across biogeographical gradients since 2000

Covering large parts of Europe, Norway spruce (Picea abies L Karst.) plays an important role in the adaptation strategy of forest services to future climate change. Although dendroecology can provide valuable information on the past relationships between tree growth and climate, most previous studies were biased towards species-specific distribution limits, where old individuals grow slowly under extreme conditions. In the present study, we investigated the growth variability and climate sensitivity of 2851 Norway spruce trees along longitudinal (E 12-26°), latitudinal (N 45-51°), and elevation (118-1591 m a.s.l.) gradients in central-eastern Europe. We reveal that summer weather significantly affects the radial growth of spruce trees, but the effects strongly vary along biogeographical gradients. Extreme summer heatwaves in 2000 and 2003 reduced the growth rates by 10-35%, most pronounced in the southern Carpathians. In contrast to the population in the Czech Republic, climate warming induced a synchronous decline in the growth rates across biogeographical gradients in the Carpathian arc. By demonstrating the increased vulnerability of Norway spruce under warmer climate conditions, we recommended that the forest services and conservation managers replace or admix monocultures of this species with more drought-resilient mixtures including fir, beech and other broadleaved species.

The chemical composition of forest soils and their degree of acidity in Central Europe

We conducted an extensive screening of forest soils in the whole area of the Czech Republic to determine their degree of acidification and potential degradation. Soils were sampled at 480 forest sites (in a 7 × 7 km grid covering the entire Czech Republic) from the upper 30-cm layer and included both organic and mineral horizons. Based on values of water extractable pH (pH_H2O), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and base saturation (BS), soils were divided into three categories by their degree of acidity, i.e., non-or-low-acidic (NLA; pH_H2O ≥ 4.2, CEC ≥ 150 meq kg^-1, BS ≥ 15%), moderately acidic (MA; at least one parameter is below the limits for the NLA category), and strongly acidic (SA; all three parameters are below the limits for the NLA category). Only 11% of sampled soils were classified in the NLA category, while 58% and 31% belonged to the MA and SA category, respectively. The SA soils had median values of pH_H2O, CEC, and BS of 3.9, 102 meq kg^-1, and 10.2%, respectively, and their molar ratios between exchangeable concentrations of base cations to aluminum (BC_ex/Al_ex) were <0.6, indicating a high likelihood of adverse Al effects on plant growth. Moreover, the SA soils exhibited lowest ratios between extractable nutrients (base cations and phosphorus) and dissolved N (DN), indicating other than N limitation of plant growth at these sites, and elevated risks of reactive N leaching. In contrast, the NLA soils had median values of pH_H2O, CEC, BS and BC_ex/Al_ex of 5.4, 199 meq kg^-1, 95%, and 0.7 respectively. For these soils, neither adverse effects of Al nor elevated N losses are likely.

Increased spruce tree growth in Central Europe since 1960s

Tree growth response to recent environmental changes is of key interest for forest ecology. This study addressed the following questions with respect to Norway spruce (Picea abies, L. Karst.) in Central Europe: Has tree growth accelerated during the last five decades? What are the main environmental drivers of the observed tree radial stem growth and how much variability can be explained by them? Using a nationwide dendrochronological sampling of Norway spruce in the Czech Republic (1246 trees, 266 plots), novel regional tree-ring width chronologies for 40(±10)- and 60(±10)-year old trees were assembled, averaged across three elevation zones (break points at 500 and 700m). Correspondingly averaged drivers, including temperature, precipitation, nitrogen (N) deposition and ambient CO₂ concentration, were used in a general linear model (GLM) to analyze the contribution of these in explaining tree ring width variability for the period from 1961 to 2013. Spruce tree radial stem growth responded strongly to the changing environment in Central Europe during the period, with a mean tree ring width increase of 24 and 32% for the 40- and 60-year old trees, respectively. The indicative General Linear Model analysis identified CO₂, precipitation during the vegetation season, spring air temperature (March-May) and N-deposition as the significant covariates of growth, with the latter including interactions with elevation zones. The regression models explained 57% and 55% of the variability in the two tree ring width chronologies, respectively. Growth response to N-deposition showed the highest variability along the elevation gradient with growth stimulation/limitation at sites below/above 700m. A strong sensitivity of stem growth to CO₂ was also indicated, suggesting that the effect of rising ambient CO₂ concentration (direct or indirect by increased water use efficiency) should be considered in analyses of long-term growth together with climatic factors and N-deposition.

Environmental factors exert strong control over the climate-growth relationships of Picea abies in Central Europe

The growth response of trees to changing climate is frequently discussed as increasing temperatures and more severe droughts become major risks for forest ecosystems. However, the ability of trees to cope with the changing climate and the effects of other environmental factors on climate-growth relationships are still poorly understood. There is thus an increasing need to understand the ability of individual trees to cope with changing climate in various environments. To improve the current understanding, a large tree-ring network covering the whole area of the Czech Republic (in 7×7km grids) was utilized to investigate how the climate-growth relationships of Norway spruce are affected by 1) various geographical variables, 2) changing levels of acidic deposition, 3) soil characteristics and 4) age, tree diameter and neighbourhood competition. The period from 1930 to 2013 was divided into four, 21-year long intervals of differing levels of acidic deposition, which peaked in the 1972-1993 period. Our individual-based, spatiotemporal, multivariate analyses revealed that spruce growth was mostly affected by drought and warm summers. Drought plays the most important negative role at lower altitudes, while the positive effect of higher temperature was identified for trees at higher altitudes. Increased levels of acidic deposition, together with geographical variables, were identified as the most important factors affecting climate-growth association. Tree age, tree size and soil characteristics also significantly modulate climate-growth relationships. The importance of all environmental variables on climate-growth relationships was suppressed by acidic deposition during periods when this was at a high level; growth was significantly more enhanced by spring and summer temperatures during these periods. Our results suggest that spruce will undergo significant growth reduction under the predicted climate changes, especially at the lower altitudes which lie outside of its natural range.

Discerning environmental factors affecting current tree growth in Central Europe

We examined the effect of individual environmental factors on the current spruce tree growth assessed from a repeated country-level statistical landscape (incl. forest) survey in the Czech Republic. An extensive set of variables related to tree size, competition, site characteristics including soil texture, chemistry, N deposition and climate was tested within a random-effect model to explain growth in the conditions of dominantly managed forest ecosystems. The current spruce basal area increment was assessed from two consecutive landscape surveys conducted in 2008/2009 and six years later in 2014/2015. Tree size, age and competition within forest stands were found to be the dominant explanatory variables, whereas the expression of site characteristics, environmental and climatic drives was weaker. The significant site variables affecting growth included soil C/N ratio and soil exchangeable acidity (pH KCl; positive response) reflecting soil chemistry, long-term N-deposition (averaged since 1975) in combination with soil texture (clay content) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a drought index expressing moisture conditions. Sensitivity of growth to N-deposition was positive, although weak. SPI was positively related to and significant in explaining tree growth when expressed for the growth season. Except SPI, no significant relation of growth was determined to altitude-related variables (temperature, growth season length). We identified the current spruce growth optimum at elevations about 800ma.s.l. or higher in the conditions of the country. This suggests that at lower elevations, limitation by a more pronounced water deficit dominates, whereas direct temperature limitation may concern the less frequent higher elevations. The mixed linear model of spruce tree growth explained 55 and 65% of the variability with fixed and random effects included, respectively, and provided new insights on the current spruce tree growth and factors affecting it within the environmental gradients of the country.

Water use efficiency of short-rotation Salix viminalis at leaf, tree and stand scales

Fluxes of water and carbon dioxide from short-rotation Salix viminalis L. were measured at leaf, tree and stand scales using porometer, chamber and micrometeorological techniques, respectively. At all three scales, instantaneous water use efficiency exhibited a similar dependence on vapor pressure deficit (deltae) with values of 21, 13 and 10 g CO(2) per kg H(2)O for deltae of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 kPa, respectively. The fluxes of CO(2) and H(2)O plotted against incident light above the stand differed in magnitude according to scale, with highest and lowest values being obtained for leaf- and stand-level measurements, respectively. At the tree level, the fluxes of CO(2) and H(2)O reflected the social position of the sample trees with the dominant tree having higher values than the subdominant tree. Average long-term water use efficiency, estimated from stand-level measurements, was 6.3 g dry biomass per kg of transpired water. This value is high compared with values for other tree species and may be associated with a high foliar nitrogen concentration. We conclude that water availability will be a critical factor in short-rotation willow forestry despite the relatively high water use efficiency of the species.

Radial velocity profiles of water flow in trunks of Norway spruce and oak and the response of spruce to severing

Trunk-tissue heat balance, volumetric and staining methods were used to study xylem water flow rates and pathways in mature Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) trees. The radial profile of flow velocity was confirmed to be symmetrical in spruce, i.e., maximum flow velocity was in the center of the conducting xylem and tailed with low amplitude (about 30 cm h(-1)) in the direction of the cambium and heartwood. Variability around the trunk was high. In contrast, in oak, the radial profile of flow velocity was highly asymmetrical, reaching a peak of about 45 m h(-1) in the youngest growth ring and tailing centripetally for about 10 rings, but variability around the trunk was less, under non-limiting soil water conditions, than in spruce. In spruce, the flow rate increased abruptly within seconds when the tree was severed while immersed in water, and then decreased gradually, showing significant root resistance. We conclude that water flow through an absorbing cut surface differs from the flow higher in a tree trunk because of the presence of hydraulic capacitances in the conductive pathways. The staining technique always yielded higher estimates of flow velocity than the non-destructive tree-trunk heat balance method.