One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains

Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.

Evaluation of the management potential of timber resources in clearwater floodplain forests in the Amazon using growth models

The Amazonian clearwater igapós are poorly studied floodplain ecosystems that are mainly covered by forests and are undergoing massive threats due to changes in land use and climate. Their hydrochemical characteristics and edaphic conditions fall between those of the eutrophic várzea floodplains on whitewater rivers and those of the oligotrophic igapós on blackwater rivers. Previous studies have indicated the management potential of timber species in the highly dynamic várzea floodplains due to the fast tree growth and high forest productivity. Timber resource management, however, is not recommended for the blackwater ecosystem because of its slow dynamics and high vulnerability to disturbances. For clearwater igapós, information on the potential for sustainable management of timber resources is lacking. In this study, we modeled the growth in diameter, height, and volume to derive species-specific minimum logging diameters (MLD) and felling cycles (FC) for eight merchantable species in the clearwater igapós of the Branco and Tapajós rivers in the northern and southern Amazon Basin, respectively. Diameter growth was modeled by analyzing the tree rings that are annually formed in the Amazonian floodplains as a consequence of the regular and predicable long-term flooding. Growth modeling followed the guidelines of the Growth-Oriented Logging (GOL) concept, with the adjustment of diameter growth improved by applying nonlinear mixed-effects regression. MLDs varied from 36 to 90 cm and FCs ranged from 6 to 21 years, which diverges from the standards of Brazilian logging regulations (MLD: 50 cm; FC: 25-35 years). This indicates the potential for timber resource management, which should be tested and introduced at small scales, integrated in protected areas to stepwise promote the sustainable management of these natural resources by traditional communities to increase their income and the conservation of this ecosystem.

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Mapping density, diversity and species-richness of the Amazon tree flora

Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution.

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

More than 10,000 pre-Columbian earthworks are still hidden throughout Amazonia

Indigenous societies are known to have occupied the Amazon basin for more than 12,000 years, but the scale of their influence on Amazonian forests remains uncertain. We report the discovery, using LIDAR (light detection and ranging) information from across the basin, of 24 previously undetected pre-Columbian earthworks beneath the forest canopy. Modeled distribution and abundance of large-scale archaeological sites across Amazonia suggest that between 10,272 and 23,648 sites remain to be discovered and that most will be found in the southwest. We also identified 53 domesticated tree species significantly associated with earthwork occurrence probability, likely suggesting past management practices. Closed-canopy forests across Amazonia are likely to contain thousands of undiscovered archaeological sites around which pre-Columbian societies actively modified forests, a discovery that opens opportunities for better understanding the magnitude of ancient human influence on Amazonia and its current state.

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Effects of Amazonian flying rivers on frog biodiversity and populations in the Atlantic rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers.

Seasonal shifts in isoprenoid emission composition from three hyperdominant tree species in central Amazonia

Volatile isoprenoids regulate plant performance and atmospheric processes, and Amazon forests comprise the dominant source to the global atmosphere. Still, there is a poor understanding of how isoprenoid emission capacities vary in response to ecophysiological and environmental controls in Amazonian ecosystems. We measured isoprenoid emission capacities of three Amazonian hyperdominant tree species - Protium hebetatum, Eschweilera grandiflora, Eschweilera coriacea - across seasons and along a topographic and edaphic environmental gradient in the central Amazon. From wet to dry season, both photosynthesis and isoprene emission capacities strongly declined, while emissions increased among the heavier isoprenoids: monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes. Plasticity across habitats was most evident in P. hebetatum, which emitted sesquiterpenes only in the dry season, at rates that significantly increased along the hydro-topographic gradient from white sands (shallow root water access) to uplands (deep water table). We suggest that emission composition shifts are part of a plastic response to increasing abiotic stress (e.g. heat and drought) and reduced photosynthetic supply of substrates for isoprenoid synthesis. Our comprehensive measurements suggest that more emphasis should be placed on other isoprenoids, besides isoprene, in the context of abiotic stress responses. Shifting emission compositions have implications for atmospheric responses because of the strong variation in reactivity among isoprenoid compounds.

The specialized white-sand flora of the Uatumã Sustainable Development Reserve, central Amazon, Brazil

The consensus is that Amazonian white-sand ecosystems (campinaranas) shelter several endemic plant species. However, recent studies have shown that most species are generalists, and they also occur in other Neotropical ecosystems. To investigate this issue, we analyzed the proportion of endemic/specialist species in a checklist of trees, palms, and shrubs sampled between 2014 and 2020 in campinarana patches of the Uatumã Sustainable Development Reserve (USDR), central Amazon. We also provide a description of phytophysiognomies, habitats, distribution, and phenology. We found 167 species belonging to 117 genera and 50 families. Fabaceae was the most representative (21 spp.), followed by Rubiaceae (16 spp.) and Chrysobalanaceae (10 spp.). We found that 30.5% of the species were exclusive to campinaranas, confirming that although there are many endemics, proportionally most species are generalists. The USDR has a rich flora specialized in oligotrophic habitats, which must be considered in the management and conservation strategies of these complex and fragile Amazonian ecosystems. 

Tree-ring oxygen isotopes record a decrease in Amazon dry season rainfall over the past 40 years

Extant climate observations suggest the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin has become longer and drier over recent decades. However, such possible intensification of the Amazon dry season and its underlying causes are still a matter of debate. Here we used oxygen isotope ratios in tree rings (δ¹⁸O_TR) from six floodplain trees from the western Amazon to assess changes in past climate. Our analysis shows that δ¹⁸O_TR of these trees is negatively related to inter-annual variability of precipitation during the dry season over large parts of the Amazon Basin, consistent with a Rayleigh rainout model. Furthermore δ¹⁸O_TR increases by approximately 2‰ over the last four decades (~ 1970-2014) providing evidence of an Amazon drying trend independent from satellite and in situ rainfall observations. Using a Rayleigh rainout framework, we estimate basin-wide dry season rainfall to have decreased by up to 30%. The δ¹⁸O_TR record further suggests such drying trend may not be unprecedented over the past 80 years. Analysis of δ¹⁸O_TR with sea surface temperatures indicates a strong role of a warming Tropical North Atlantic Ocean in driving this long-term increase in δ¹⁸O_TR and decrease in dry season rainfall.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-06046-7.

Modeling the Ecological Responses of Tree Species to the Flood Pulse of the Amazon Negro River Floodplains

The large flood pulse of the Amazon basin is a principal driver of environmental heterogeneity with important implications for ecosystem function and the assembly of natural communities. Understanding species ecological response to the flood pulse is thus a key question with implications for theories of species coexistence, resource management, and conservation. Yet these remain largely undescribed for most species, and in particular for trees. The large flood pulse and high tree diversity of the Negro River floodplain makes it an ideal system to begin filling this knowledge gap. We merged historical hydrologic data with 41 forest inventories under variable flooding conditions distributed across the Negro River basin, comprising a total area of 34 ha, to (i) assess the importance of flood duration as a driver of compositional variation, (ii) model the response curve shapes of 111 of the most frequent tree species in function of flood duration, and (iii) derive their niche properties (optima and tolerance). We found that flood duration is a strong driver of compositional turnover, although the majority site-to-site variation in forest composition still remains unexplained. About 73% of species responded to the flood duration gradient, exhibiting a diversity of shapes, but most frequently skewed. About 29% of species were clearly favored by flood durations >120 days year–1, and 44% of species favored by shorter floods. The median niche breadth was 85 flood days year–1, corresponding to approximately 30% of the flood duration gradient. A significant subset of species (27%) did not respond to flooding, but rather exhibited wide tolerance to the flood gradient. The response models provided here offer valuable information regarding tree species differential capacity to grow, survive, and regenerate along an ecologically important gradient and are spatially valid for the Amazon Negro basin. These attributes make them an appealing tool with wide applicability for field and experimental studies in the region, as well as for vegetation monitoring and simulation models of floodplain forest change in the face of hydrologic alteration.

Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs

Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO₂, possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees' lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Flood-pulse disturbances as a threat for long-living Amazonian trees

The long-lived tree species Eschweilera tenuifolia (O. Berg) Miers is characteristic of oligotrophic Amazonian black-water floodplain forests (igapó), seasonally inundated up to 10 months per year, often forming monodominant stands. We investigated E. tenuifolia' growth and mortality patterns in undisturbed (Jaú National Park - JNP) and disturbed igapós (Uatumã Sustainable Development Reserve - USDR, downstream of the Balbina hydroelectric dam). We analysed age-diameter relationships, basal area increment (BAI) through 5-cm diameter classes, growth changes and growth ratios preceding death, BAI clustering, BAI ratio, and dated the individual year of death (¹⁴ C). Growth and mortality patterns were then related to climatic or anthropogenic disturbances. Results were similar for both populations for estimated maximum ages (JNP, 466 yr; USDR, 498 yr, except for one USDR tree with an estimated age of 820 yr) and slightly different for mean diameter increment (JNP: 2.04 mm; USDR: 2.28 mm). Living trees from JNP showed altered growth post-1975 and sparse tree mortality occurred at various times, possibly induced by extreme hydroclimatic events. In contrast with the JNP, abrupt growth changes and massive mortality occurred in the USDR after the dam construction began (1983). Even more than 30 yr after dam construction, flood-pulse alteration continues to affect both growth and mortality of E. tenuifolia. Besides its vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbances, this species is also susceptible to long-lasting dry and wet periods induced by climatic events, the combination of both processes may cause its local and regional extinction.

Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.

Tropical Trees as Time Capsules of Anthropogenic Activity

After the ice caps, tropical forests are globally the most threatened terrestrial environments. Modern trees are not just witnesses to growing contemporary threats but also legacies of past human activity. Here, we review the use of dendrochronology, radiocarbon analysis, stable isotope analysis, and DNA analysis to examine ancient tree management. These methods exploit the fact that living trees record information on environmental and anthropogenic selective forces during their own and past generations of growth, making trees living archaeological 'sites'. The applicability of these methods across prehistoric, historic, and industrial periods means they have the potential to detect evolving anthropogenic threats and can be used to set conservation priorities in rapidly vanishing environments.

Amazonian trees show increased edge effects due to Atlantic Ocean warming and northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone since 1980

Recent investigations indicate a warming of Atlantic Ocean surface waters since 1980, probably influenced by anthropic actions, inducing rainfall intensification mainly during the rainy season and slight reductions during the dry season in the Amazon. Under these climate changes, trees in upland forests (terra firme) could benefit from the intensification of the hydrological cycle and could also be affected by the reduction of precipitation during the dry season. Results of dendrochronological analyses, spatial correlations and structural equation models, showed that Scleronema micranthum (Ducke) Ducke (Malvaceae) trees exposed in fragmented areas and to edge effects in Central Amazonian terra firme forest were more sensitive to the increase in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature and consequent northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, mainly during the dry season. Therefore, we proved that in altered and potentially more stressful environments such as edges of fragmented forests, recent anthropogenic climatic changes are exerting pressure on tree growth dynamics, inducing alterations in their performance and, consequently, in essential processes related to ecosystem services. Changes that could affect human well-being, highlighting the need for strategies that reduce edge areas expansion in Amazon forests and anthropic climate changes of the Anthropocene.

Rarity of monodominance in hyperdiverse Amazonian forests

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such “monodominant” forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors.

Measures for sustainable forest management in the tropics - A tree-ring based case study on tree growth and forest dynamics in a Central Amazonian lowland moist forest

The conservation of tropical forests is recognized as one of the most important challenges for forestry, ecology and politics. Besides strict protection, the sustainable management of natural forests should be enhanced as a key part of the foundation for the maintenance of tropical rain forest ecosystems. Due to methodological reasons it has been complicated to attain reliable growth data to plan sustainable felling cycles and rotation periods. Tree ring analyses enable the estimation of growth rates over the entire life span of trees and their age as well as giving hints from forest dynamics in previous centuries. For tree ring analysis, stem disk samples were taken from three important commercial tree species (Cariniana micrantha, Caryocar villosum and Manilkara huberi) in the upland (terra firme) forests of the Precious Woods Amazon logging company near Itacoatiara, Brazil. Based on radiocarbon estimates of individual growth zones, the annual nature of tree rings was proven for the three species. Tree rings were measured and the results used together with height estimates to model diameter, height and volume growth. The age of the eldest tree, a C. micrantha, was 585 yrs with 165 cm in diameter. The species’ diameter increments range from 0.20±0.12 cm yr^-1 to 0.29±0.08 cm yr^-1. At first sight, this is considerably lower than increments reported from other Amazonian or African timber species. Considering the respective wood density there is no significant difference in growth performance of dominant timber species across continents. The interpretation of lifetime tree ring curves indicate differences in shadow tolerance among species, the persistence of individuals in the understory for up to 150 years and natural stand dynamics without major disturbances. Management criteria should be adapted for the measured growth rates as they differed considerably from the Brazilian standards fixed by laws (felling cycle of 25–35 years and a common minimum logging diameter of 50 cm). Felling cycles should be increased to 32–51 years and minimum logging diameters to 63–123 cm depending on the species.

Contrasting controls on tree ring isotope variation for Amazon floodplain and terra firme trees

Isotopes in tropical trees rings can improve our understanding of tree responses to climate. We assessed how climate and growing conditions affect tree-ring oxygen and carbon isotopes (δ18OTR and δ13CTR) in four Amazon trees. We analysed within-ring isotope variation for two terra firme (non-flooded) and two floodplain trees growing at sites with varying seasonality. We find distinct intra-annual patterns of δ18OTR and δ13CTR driven mostly by seasonal variation in weather and source water δ18O. Seasonal variation in isotopes was lowest for the tree growing under the wettest conditions. Tree ring cellulose isotope models based on existing theory reproduced well observed within-ring variation with possible contributions of both stomatal and mesophyll conductance to variation in δ13CTR. Climate analysis reveal that terra firme δ18OTR signals were related to basin-wide precipitation, indicating a source water δ18O influence, while floodplain trees recorded leaf enrichment effects related to local climate. Thus, intrinsically different processes (source water vs leaf enrichment) affect δ18OTR in the two different species analysed. These differences are likely a result of both species-specific traits and of the contrasting growing conditions in the floodplains and terra firme environments. Simultaneous analysis of δ13CTR and δ18OTR supports this interpretation as it shows strongly similar intra-annual patterns for both isotopes in the floodplain trees arising from a common control by leaf stomatal conductance, while terra firme trees showed less covariation between the two isotopes. Our results are interesting from a plant physiological perspective and have implications for climate reconstructions as trees record intrinsically different processes.

Growth rings of Brazil nut trees (Bertholletia excelsa) as a living record of historical human disturbance in Central Amazonia

The Brazil nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) is an iconic and economically valuable species that dominates vast swathes of the Amazon Basin. This species seems to have been an important part of human subsistence strategies in the region from at least the Early Holocene, and its current distribution may be a legacy of past human settlement. Because B. excelsa is a long-lived pioneer tree it requires natural or human disturbances to increase light availability in the understory for a successful establishment. However, it remains unclear how the long-term population dynamics of this species have been shaped by pre-colonial and post-colonial human practices. Here, we use tree-ring analyses to look at changes in growing conditions over the past 400 years in a Brazil nut tree population in Central Amazonia. We identify changes in tree recruitment and growth rates associated not only with regional climatic variability, but also major political and socio-economic activities recorded by historical documents in the vicinity of Manaus. We demonstrate that the expansion of a post-colonial political center (Manaus) from the middle of the 18th century onwards coincided with a reduction in recruitment of B. excelsa. We argue that this hiatus suggests the interruption of indigenous management practices, probably due to the collapse of pre-Columbian societies. A second recruitment pulse, and unprecedented cycles of growth release and suppression, aligns with a shift to modern exploitation of the forest into the 20th century. Our findings shed light on how past histories of human-forest interactions can be revealed by the growth rings of trees in Amazonia. Future interdisciplinary analysis of these trees should enable more detailed investigation of how human forest management has changed in this part of the world, through pre-colonial, colonial, and industrial periods of human activity, with potential implications for conservation.

Massive tree mortality from flood pulse disturbances in Amazonian floodplain forests: The collateral effects of hydropower production

Large dams built for hydroelectric power generation alter the hydrology of rivers, attenuating the flood pulse downstream of the dam and impacting riparian and floodplain ecosystems. The present work mapped black-water floodplain forests (igapó) downstream of the Balbina Reservoir, which was created between 1983 and 1987 by damming the Uatumã River in the Central Amazon basin. We apply remote sensing methods to detect tree mortality resulting from hydrological changes, based on analysis of 56 ALOS/PALSAR synthetic aperture radar images acquired at different flood levels between 2006 and 2011. Our application of object-based image analysis (OBIA) methods and the random forests supervised classification algorithm yielded an overall accuracy of 87.2%. A total of 9800 km² of igapó forests were mapped along the entire river downstream of the dam, but forest mortality was only observed below the first 49 km downstream, after the Morena rapids, along an 80-km river stretch. In total, 12% of the floodplain forest died within this stretch. We also detected that 29% of the remaining living igapó forest may be presently undergoing mortality. Furthermore, this large loss does not include the entirety of lost igapó forests downstream of the dam; areas which are now above current maximum flooding heights are no longer floodable and do not show on our mapping but will likely transition over time to upland forest species composition and dynamics, also characteristic of igapó loss. Our results show that floodplain forests are extremely sensitive to long-term downstream hydrological changes and disturbances resulting from the disruption of the natural flood pulse. Brazilian hydropower regulations should require that Amazon dam operations ensure the simulation of the natural flood-pulse, despite losses in energy production, to preserve the integrity of floodplain forest ecosystems and to mitigate impacts for the riverine populations.

Recent intensification of Amazon flooding extremes driven by strengthened Walker circulation

The Amazon basin is the largest watershed on Earth. Although the variability of the Amazon hydrological cycle has been increasing since the late 1990s, its underlying causes have remained elusive. We use water levels in the Amazon River to quantify changes in extreme events and then analyze their cause. Despite continuing research emphasis on droughts, the largest change over recent decades is a marked increase in very severe floods. Increased flooding is linked to a strengthening of the Walker circulation, resulting from strong tropical Atlantic warming and tropical Pacific cooling. Atlantic warming due to combined anthropogenic and natural factors has contributed to enhance the change in atmospheric circulation. Whether this anomalous increase in flooding will last depends on the evolution of the tropical inter-ocean temperature difference.

Species Distribution Modelling: Contrasting presence-only models with plot abundance data

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in ecology and conservation. Presence-only SDMs such as MaxEnt frequently use natural history collections (NHCs) as occurrence data, given their huge numbers and accessibility. NHCs are often spatially biased which may generate inaccuracies in SDMs. Here, we test how the distribution of NHCs and MaxEnt predictions relates to a spatial abundance model, based on a large plot dataset for Amazonian tree species, using inverse distance weighting (IDW). We also propose a new pipeline to deal with inconsistencies in NHCs and to limit the area of occupancy of the species. We found a significant but weak positive relationship between the distribution of NHCs and IDW for 66% of the species. The relationship between SDMs and IDW was also significant but weakly positive for 95% of the species, and sensitivity for both analyses was high. Furthermore, the pipeline removed half of the NHCs records. Presence-only SDM applications should consider this limitation, especially for large biodiversity assessments projects, when they are automatically generated without subsequent checking. Our pipeline provides a conservative estimate of a species’ area of occupancy, within an area slightly larger than its extent of occurrence, compatible to e.g. IUCN red list assessments.

Estimating the global conservation status of more than 15,000 Amazonian tree species

Estimates of extinction risk for Amazonian plant and animal species are rare and not often incorporated into land-use policy and conservation planning. We overlay spatial distribution models with historical and projected deforestation to show that at least 36% and up to 57% of all Amazonian tree species are likely to qualify as globally threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. If confirmed, these results would increase the number of threatened plant species on Earth by 22%. We show that the trends observed in Amazonia apply to trees throughout the tropics, and we predict that most of the world's >40,000 tropical tree species now qualify as globally threatened. A gap analysis suggests that existing Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories will protect viable populations of most threatened species if these areas suffer no further degradation, highlighting the key roles that protected areas, indigenous peoples, and improved governance can play in preventing large-scale extinctions in the tropics in this century.

Hyperdominance in the Amazonian tree flora

The vast extent of the Amazon Basin has historically restricted the study of its tree communities to the local and regional scales. Here, we provide empirical data on the commonness, rarity, and richness of lowland tree species across the entire Amazon Basin and Guiana Shield (Amazonia), collected in 1170 tree plots in all major forest types. Extrapolations suggest that Amazonia harbors roughly 16,000 tree species, of which just 227 (1.4%) account for half of all trees. Most of these are habitat specialists and only dominant in one or two regions of the basin. We discuss some implications of the finding that a small group of species--less diverse than the North American tree flora--accounts for half of the world's most diverse tree community.

Wood growth patterns of Macrolobium acaciifolium (Benth.) Benth. (Fabaceae) in Amazonian black-water and white-water floodplain forests

Macrolobium acaciifolium (Benth.) Benth. (Fabaceae) is a dominant legume tree species occurring at low elevations of nutrient-poor black-water (igapó) and nutrient-rich white-water floodplain forests (várzea) of Amazonia. As a consequence of the annual long-term flooding this species forms distinct annual tree rings allowing dendrochronological analyses. From both floodplain types in Central Amazonia we sampled cores from 20 large canopy trees growing at identical elevations with a flood-height up to 7 m. We determined tree age, wood density (WD) and mean radial increment (MRI) and synchronized ring-width patterns of single trees to construct tree-ring chronologies for every study site. Maximum tree age found in the igapó was more than 500 years, contrary to the várzea with ages not older than 200 years. MRI and WD were significantly lower in the igapó (MRI=1.52+/-0.38 mm year(-1), WD=0.39+/-0.05 g cm(-3)) than in the várzea (MRI=2.66+/-0.67 mm year(-1), WD=0.45+/-0.03 g cm(-3)). In both floodplain forests we developed tree-ring chronologies comprising the period 1857-2003 (n=7 trees) in the várzea and 1606-2003 (n=13 trees) in the igapó. The ring-width in both floodplain forests was significantly correlated with the length of the terrestrial phase (vegetation period) derived from the daily recorded water level in the port of Manaus since 1903. In both chronologies we found increased wood growth during El Niño events causing negative precipitation anomalies and a lower water discharge in Amazonian rivers, which leads to an extension of the terrestrial phase. The climate signal of La Niña was not evident in the dendroclimatic proxies.