Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

Giants of the Amazon: How does environmental variation drive the diversity patterns of large trees?

For more than three decades, major efforts in sampling and analyzing tree diversity in South America have focused almost exclusively on trees with stems of at least 10 and 2.5 cm diameter, showing highest species diversity in the wetter western and northern Amazon forests. By contrast, little attention has been paid to patterns and drivers of diversity in the largest canopy and emergent trees, which is surprising given these have dominant ecological functions. Here, we use a machine learning approach to quantify the importance of environmental factors and apply it to generate spatial predictions of the species diversity of all trees (dbh ≥ 10 cm) and for very large trees (dbh ≥ 70 cm) using data from 243 forest plots (108,450 trees and 2832 species) distributed across different forest types and biogeographic regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The diversity of large trees and of all trees was significantly associated with three environmental factors, but in contrasting ways across regions and forest types. Environmental variables associated with disturbances, for example, the lightning flash rate and wind speed, as well as the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, tend to govern the diversity of large trees. Upland rainforests in the Guiana Shield and Roraima regions had a high diversity of large trees. By contrast, variables associated with resources tend to govern tree diversity in general. Places such as the province of Imeri and the northern portion of the province of Madeira stand out for their high diversity of species in general. Climatic and topographic stability and functional adaptation mechanisms promote ideal conditions for species diversity. Finally, we mapped general patterns of tree species diversity in the Brazilian Amazon, which differ substantially depending on size class.

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Small understorey trees have greater capacity than canopy trees to adjust hydraulic traits following prolonged experimental drought in a tropical forest

Future climate change predictions for tropical forests highlight increased frequency and intensity of extreme drought events. However, it remains unclear whether large and small trees have differential strategies to tolerate drought due to the different niches they occupy. The future of tropical forests is ultimately dependent on the capacity of small trees (<10 cm in diameter) to adjust their hydraulic system to tolerate drought. To address this question, we evaluated whether the drought tolerance of neotropical small trees can adjust to experimental water stress and was different from tall trees. We measured multiple drought resistance-related hydraulic traits across nine common neotropical genera at the world's longest-running tropical forest throughfall-exclusion experiment and compared their responses with surviving large canopy trees. Small understorey trees in both the control and the throughfall-exclusion treatment had lower minimum stomatal conductance and maximum hydraulic leaf-specific conductivity relative to large trees of the same genera, as well as a greater hydraulic safety margin (HSM), percentage loss of conductivity and embolism resistance, demonstrating that they occupy a distinct hydraulic niche. Surprisingly, in response to the drought treatment, small trees increased specific hydraulic conductivity by 56.3% and leaf:sapwood area ratio by 45.6%. The greater HSM of small understorey trees relative to large canopy trees likely enabled them to adjust other aspects of their hydraulic systems to increase hydraulic conductivity and take advantage of increases in light availability in the understorey resulting from the drought-induced mortality of canopy trees. Our results demonstrate that differences in hydraulic strategies between small understorey and large canopy trees drive hydraulic niche segregation. Small understorey trees can adjust their hydraulic systems in response to changes in water and light availability, indicating that natural regeneration of tropical forests following long-term drought may be possible.

Plant traits controlling growth change in response to a drier climate

Plant traits are increasingly being used to improve prediction of plant function, including plant demography. However, the capability of plant traits to predict demographic rates remains uncertain, particularly in the context of trees experiencing a changing climate. Here we present data combining 17 plant traits associated with plant structure, metabolism and hydraulic status, with measurements of long-term mean, maximum and relative growth rates for 176 trees from the world's longest running tropical forest drought experiment. We demonstrate that plant traits can predict mean annual tree growth rates with moderate explanatory power. However, only combinations of traits associated more directly with plant functional processes, rather than more commonly employed traits like wood density or leaf mass per area, yield the power to predict growth. Critically, we observe a shift from growth being controlled by traits related to carbon cycling (assimilation and respiration) in well-watered trees, to traits relating to plant hydraulic stress in drought-stressed trees. We also demonstrate that even with a very comprehensive set of plant traits and growth data on large numbers of tropical trees, considerable uncertainty remains in directly interpreting the mechanisms through which traits influence performance in tropical forests.

Small tropical forest trees have a greater capacity to adjust carbon metabolism to long-term drought than large canopy trees

The response of small understory trees to long-term drought is vital in determining the future composition, carbon stocks and dynamics of tropical forests. Long-term drought is, however, also likely to expose understory trees to increased light availability driven by drought-induced mortality. Relatively little is known about the potential for understory trees to adjust their physiology to both decreasing water and increasing light availability. We analysed data on maximum photosynthetic capacity (J_max , V_cmax ), leaf respiration (R_leaf ), leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf thickness and leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations from 66 small trees across 12 common genera at the world's longest running tropical rainfall exclusion experiment and compared responses to those from 61 surviving canopy trees. Small trees increased J_max , V_cmax , R_leaf and LMA (71, 29, 32, 15% respectively) in response to the drought treatment, but leaf thickness and leaf nutrient concentrations did not change. Small trees were significantly more responsive than large canopy trees to the drought treatment, suggesting greater phenotypic plasticity and resilience to prolonged drought, although differences among taxa were observed. Our results highlight that small tropical trees have greater capacity to respond to ecosystem level changes and have the potential to regenerate resilient forests following future droughts.

Amazonia trees have limited capacity to acclimate plant hydraulic properties in response to long-term drought

The fate of tropical forests under future climate change is dependent on the capacity of their trees to adjust to drier conditions. The capacity of trees to withstand drought is likely to be determined by traits associated with their hydraulic systems. However, data on whether tropical trees can adjust hydraulic traits when experiencing drought remain rare. We measured plant hydraulic traits (e.g. hydraulic conductivity and embolism resistance) and plant hydraulic system status (e.g. leaf water potential, native embolism and safety margin) on >150 trees from 12 genera (36 species) and spanning a stem size range from 14 to 68 cm diameter at breast height at the world's only long-running tropical forest drought experiment. Hydraulic traits showed no adjustment following 15 years of experimentally imposed moisture deficit. This failure to adjust resulted in these drought-stressed trees experiencing significantly lower leaf water potentials, and higher, but variable, levels of native embolism in the branches. This result suggests that hydraulic damage caused by elevated levels of embolism is likely to be one of the key drivers of drought-induced mortality following long-term soil moisture deficit. We demonstrate that some hydraulic traits changed with tree size, however, the direction and magnitude of the change was controlled by taxonomic identity. Our results suggest that Amazonian trees, both small and large, have limited capacity to acclimate their hydraulic systems to future droughts, potentially making them more at risk of drought-induced mortality.

Isoprene emission structures tropical tree biogeography and community assembly responses to climate

The prediction of vegetation responses to climate requires a knowledge of how climate-sensitive plant traits mediate not only the responses of individual plants, but also shifts in the species and functional compositions of whole communities. The emission of isoprene gas - a trait shared by one-third of tree species - is known to protect leaf biochemistry under climatic stress. Here, we test the hypothesis that isoprene emission shapes tree species compositions in tropical forests by enhancing the tolerance of emitting trees to heat and drought. Using forest inventory data, we estimated the proportional abundance of isoprene-emitting trees (pIE) at 103 lowland tropical sites. We also quantified the temporal composition shifts in three tropical forests - two natural and one artificial - subjected to either anomalous warming or drought. Across the landscape, pIE increased with site mean annual temperature, but decreased with dry season length. Through time, pIE strongly increased under high temperatures, and moderately increased following drought. Our analysis shows that isoprene emission is a key plant trait determining species responses to climate. For species adapted to seasonal dry periods, isoprene emission may tradeoff with alternative strategies, such as leaf deciduousness. Community selection for isoprene-emitting species is a potential mechanism for enhanced forest resilience to climatic change.

Drought stress and tree size determine stem CO2 efflux in a tropical forest

CO₂ efflux from stems (CO_{2_stem} ) accounts for a substantial fraction of tropical forest gross primary productivity, but the climate sensitivity of this flux remains poorly understood. We present a study of tropical forest CO_{2_stem} from 215 trees across wet and dry seasons, at the world's longest running tropical forest drought experiment site. We show a 27% increase in wet season CO_{2_stem} in the droughted forest relative to a control forest. This was driven by increasing CO_{2_stem} in trees 10-40 cm diameter. Furthermore, we show that drought increases the proportion of maintenance to growth respiration in trees > 20 cm diameter, including large increases in maintenance respiration in the largest droughted trees, > 40 cm diameter. However, we found no clear taxonomic influence on CO_{2_stem} and were unable to accurately predict how drought sensitivity altered ecosystem scale CO_{2_stem} , due to substantial uncertainty introduced by contrasting methods previously employed to scale CO_{2_stem} fluxes. Our findings indicate that under future scenarios of elevated drought, increases in CO_{2_stem} may augment carbon losses, weakening or potentially reversing the tropical forest carbon sink. However, due to substantial uncertainties in scaling CO_{2_stem} fluxes, stand-scale future estimates of changes in stem CO₂ emissions remain highly uncertain.

Stand dynamics modulate water cycling and mortality risk in droughted tropical forest

Transpiration from the Amazon rainforest generates an essential water source at a global and local scale. However, changes in rainforest function with climate change can disrupt this process, causing significant reductions in precipitation across Amazonia, and potentially at a global scale. We report the only study of forest transpiration following a long-term (>10 year) experimental drought treatment in Amazonian forest. After 15 years of receiving half the normal rainfall, drought-related tree mortality caused total forest transpiration to decrease by 30%. However, the surviving droughted trees maintained or increased transpiration because of reduced competition for water and increased light availability, which is consistent with increased growth rates. Consequently, the amount of water supplied as rainfall reaching the soil and directly recycled as transpiration increased to 100%. This value was 25% greater than for adjacent nondroughted forest. If these drought conditions were accompanied by a modest increase in temperature (e.g., 1.5°C), water demand would exceed supply, making the forest more prone to increased tree mortality.

Species richness and composition of epiphytic bryophytes in flooded forests of Caxiuanã National Forest, Eastern Amazon, Brazil

This study aimed to compare the richness and composition of the epiphytic bryoflora between várzea and igapó forests in Caxiuanã National Forest, Brazilian Amazon. Bryophytes were collected on 502 phorophytes of Virola surinamensis. Average richness per phorophyte and composition between forests and between dry and rainy periods was tested by two-way analysis and by cluster analysis, respectively. In total, 54 species of 13 families were identified. Richness was greater in igapó forest (44 species) compared to várzea forest (38 species). There was no significant difference in the number of species between the studied periods. Cluster analysis showed the bryoflora composition was different between várzea and igapó, but not between dry and rainy periods. Results did not corroborate the hypothesis that várzea forests harbor higher species richness than igapó forests.

Seasonality of reproduction of epiphytic bryophytes in flooded forests from the Caxiuanã National Forest, Eastern Amazon

This work aimed to recognize the reproductive biology of the epiphytic bryoflora of phorophytes of Virola surinamensis (Rol. ex. Rottb.) Warb. in várzea and igapó forests in the Caxiuanã National Forest, to answer the following question: The reproductive period of the bryophyte species is influenced by the environment due the climatic seasonality present in flooded forests, being higher the occurrence of the sexual and asexual reproduction in the rainiest months? The bryophytes were identified and analyzed for the type of reproduction, sexual system and reproductive structures. In total, 502 samples of bryophytes were analyzed, resulting in 54 species, of which 34 were fertile. The comparison of the fertility of the species in different environmental conditions (dry or rainy, and igapó or várzea forest) was assessed using the chi-square test. The fertility of the seven studied species could not be defined by a pattern, considering the forest type and the seasonality. However, two species were associated to the forest type and two further species to the seasonality, showing that, for some bryophyte species, invest in constant fertility may be favoring the maintenance of their populations in tropical forests.

Threshold Responses to Soil Moisture Deficit by Trees and Soil in Tropical Rain Forests: Insights from Field Experiments

Many tropical rain forest regions are at risk of increased future drought. The net effects of drought on forest ecosystem functioning will be substantial if important ecological thresholds are passed. However, understanding and predicting these effects is challenging using observational studies alone. Field-based rainfall exclusion (canopy throughfall exclusion; TFE) experiments can offer mechanistic insight into the response to extended or severe drought and can be used to help improve model-based simulations, which are currently inadequate. Only eight TFE experiments have been reported for tropical rain forests. We examine them, synthesizing key results and focusing on two processes that have shown threshold behavior in response to drought: (1) tree mortality and (2) the efflux of carbon dioxdie from soil, soil respiration. We show that: (a) where tested using large-scale field experiments, tropical rain forest tree mortality is resistant to long-term soil moisture deficit up to a threshold of 50% of the water that is extractable by vegetation from the soil, but high mortality occurs beyond this value, with evidence from one site of increased autotrophic respiration, and (b) soil respiration reaches its peak value in response to soil moisture at significantly higher soil moisture content for clay-rich soils than for clay-poor soils. This first synthesis of tropical TFE experiments offers the hypothesis that low soil moisture–related thresholds for key stress responses in soil and vegetation may prove to be widely applicable across tropical rain forests despite the diversity of these forests.

Gray Mold Caused by Botryotinia fuckeliana on Edible Pods of Pea in Brazil

Gray mold on edible pods of snow pea (Pisum sativum Lam. [Fabaceae]) was observed in greenhouse-cultivated pea (cvs. Luana Gigante and Gigante Flor Roxa) in the city of Pelotas (Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil) in September and October 2012. The incidence of diseased pods was high (∼25% of immature pods) after up to 3 cloudy and rainy days that hindered the ventilation inside the greenhouse resulting in high relative humidity. Infection occurred first on senescing petals adhered to the forming pods, leading to pod abortion or rotting that began at the contact site with the infected petal. The first symptoms on pods included water soaked tissue that quickly turned light brown and progressed to necrosis. Conidia and conidiophores produced on profuse gray mycelium could be easily seen on infected tissue 2 to 3 days after the appearance of symptoms. Conidiophores were smooth-walled, 400 μm to over 1.5 mm long, hyaline to pale brown, and branched in their upper part; each branch ended with a hemispherical or spherical swelling, 5 to 9 μm in diameter with minute sterigmata. Macroconidia were globose, ellipsoidal, smooth, hyaline to pale brown, usually with protuberant hila, 7 to 15 × 5 to 9 μm. Microconidia were not observed. On potato dextrose agar (PDA), colonies were fast-growing, white, low, covering entire 10 cm petri plates in 4 to 5 days when they turned gray to brownish-gray. Conidiophores and conidia were often formed in sectors. Shield-like, elliptical, lenticular to irregular, black, 1.5 to 6.0 × 1.0 to 4.0 mm sclerotia developed in 10-day-old colonies incubated at room temperature. Genomic DNA was extracted from conidia, conidiophores, and mycelium and used to amplify both the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) (ITS1-5.8s-ITS2) region and the β-tubulin gene using the ITS1/4 and Bt2a/b primers, respectively (1,4). The ITS (541 bp) and β-tubulin (467 bp) sequences were deposited in GenBank under accessions KC683713 and KC683712, respectively. BLASTn searches revealed similarity of 100% (EF207415) and 99% (FQ790278) with Botryotinia fuckeliana (De Bary) Whetzel for the ITS and β- tubulin sequences, respectively. Based on morphological characteristics and sequence analysis, the pathogen causing pod rot of peas was identified as B. fuckeliana. To fulfill Koch's postulates, 10 unwounded pods of P. sativum 'Luana Gigante' were inoculated by depositing PDA plugs (5 mm) colonized with fungal mycelium on their surface. Non-inoculated and mock-inoculated pods with sterile PDA plugs served as control. Inoculated and control pods were incubated inside a clear plastic box (11 × 11 × 3.5 cm) and over moistened filter paper under 12-h photoperiod at 25 ± 1°C. A surrounding water-soaked halo was visible only on pods inoculated with the fungus 48 h after inoculation (hai). Intense sporulation and necrosis were visible 96 hai. Botrytis spp. was previously detected, through standard blotter test, on seeds of P. sativum in Brazil, but without pathogenicity test nor its transmission through seeds (2,3). To our knowledge, this is the first report of B. fuckeliana causing epidemics on pea pods in Brazil. The high incidence of the disease in a protected environment has the potential to cause significant economic impact due to its damage to the pods, rendering them unmarketable. References: (1) N. L. Glass and G. Donaldson. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 61:1323, 1995. (2) M. A. S. Mendes et al. Fungos em Plantas no Brasil. Embrapa-Cenargen, Brasília, 1998. (3) W. M. Nascimento and S. M. Cícero. Rev. Bras. Sementes 13:5, 1991. (4) T. J. White et al. PCR Protocols: A Guide to Methods and Applications. Academic Press, San Diego, 1990.

The cost-effectiveness of biodiversity surveys in tropical forests

The identification of high-performance indicator taxa that combine practical feasibility and ecological value requires an understanding of the costs and benefits of surveying different taxa. We present a generic and novel framework for identifying such taxa, and illustrate our approach using a large-scale assessment of 14 different higher taxa across three forest types in the Brazilian Amazon, estimating both the standardized survey cost and the ecological and biodiversity indicator value for each taxon. Survey costs varied by three orders of magnitude, and dung beetles and birds were identified as especially suitable for evaluating and monitoring the ecological consequences of habitat change in our study region. However, an exclusive focus on such taxa occurs at the expense of understanding patterns of diversity in other groups. To improve the cost-effectiveness of biodiversity research we encourage a combination of clearer research goals and the use of an objective evidence-based approach to selecting study taxa.

Decomposition and carbon cycling of dead trees in tropical forests of the central Amazon

Decomposition rate constants were measured for boles of 155 large dead trees (>10 cm diameter) in central Amazon forests. Mortality data from 21 ha of permanent inventory plots, monitored for 10-15 years, were used to select dead trees for sampling. Measured rate constants varied by over 1.5 orders of magnitude (0.015-0.67 year^-1), averaging 0.19 year^-1 with predicted error of 0.026 year. Wood density and bole diameter were significantly and inversely correlated with rate constants. A tree of average biomass was predicted to decompose at 0.17 year^-1. Based on mortality data, an average of 7.0 trees ha^-1 year^-1 died producing 3.6 Mg ha^-1 year^-1 of coarse litter (>10 cm diameter). Mean coarse litter standing-stocks were predicted to be 21 Mg ha^-1, with a mean residence time of 5.9 years, and a maximum mean carbon flux to the atmosphere of 1.8 Mg C ha^-1 year^-1. Total litter is estimated to be partitioned into 16% fine wood, 30% coarse wood, and 54% non-woody litter (e.g., leaves, fruits, flowers). Decomposition rate constants for coarse litter were compiled from 20 globally distributed studies. Rates were highly correlated with mean annual temperature, giving a respiration quotient (Q ₁₀) of 2.4 (10°C^-1).

Changes in the carbon balance of tropical forests: evidence from long-term plots

The role of the world's forests as a "sink" for atmospheric carbon dioxide is the subject of active debate. Long-term monitoring of plots in mature humid tropical forests concentrated in South America revealed that biomass gain by tree growth exceeded losses from tree death in 38 of 50 Neotropical sites. These forest plots have accumulated 0.71 ton, plus or minus 0.34 ton, of carbon per hectare per year in recent decades. The data suggest that Neotropical forests may be a significant carbon sink, reducing the rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.