Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Towards precision forestry: Drought response from remote sensing-based disturbance monitoring and fine-scale soil information in Central Europe

Prolonged drought and susceptibility to biotic stressors induced an extensive calamity in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and widespread crown defoliation in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Central Europe. For future management decisions, it is crucial to link changes in canopy cover to site conditions. However, current knowledge on the role of soil properties for drought-induced forest disturbance is limited due to the scarcity and low spatial resolution of soil information. We present a fine-scale assessment on the role of soil properties for forest disturbance in Norway spruce and European beech derived from optical remote sensing. A forest disturbance modeling framework based on Sentinel-2 time series was applied on 340 km² in low mountain ranges of Central Germany. Spatio-temporal information on forest disturbance was calculated at 10 m spatial resolution in the period 2019-2021 and intersected with high-resolution soil information (1:10,000) based on roughly 2850 soil profiles. We found distinct differences in disturbed area, depending on soil type, texture, stoniness, effective rooting depth and available water capacity (AWC). For spruce, we found a polynomial relationship between AWC (R² = 0.7) and disturbance, with highest disturbed area (65 %) for AWC between 90 and 160 mm. Interestingly, we found no evidence for generally higher disturbance on shallow soils, although stands on the deepest soils were significantly less affected. Noteworthy, sites affected first did not necessarily exhibit highest proportions of disturbed area post-drought, indicating recovery or adaptation. We conclude that site- and species-specific understanding of drought impacts benefits from a combination of remote sensing and fine-scale soil information. Since our approach revealed which sites were affected first and most, it qualifies for prioritizing in situ monitoring activities to most vulnerable stands in acute drought conditions as well as for developing long-term strategies for reforestation and site-specific risk assessment for precision forestry.