Using an ensemble modelling approach to predict the potential distribution of Himalayan gray goral (Naemorhedus goral bedfordi) in Pakistan

An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Assessing the climate change impact on the habitat suitability of the range-restricted bird species (Catreus wallichii) in the Indian Himalayan ecosystem

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems' function and composition, changing living organisms' habitats. The Indian Himalayan ecosystem (IHE) is particularly susceptible and vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, our understanding of how climate change affects the habitats of range-restricted and vulnerable avifauna in the IHE still needs to be improved. Hence, we employed ensemble species distribution modelling to examine the potential habitat shift of the cheer pheasant (Catreus wallichii) under climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) i.e. RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070. The study revealed a noticeable expansion of climatically suitable habitats, indicating a shift towards higher altitudes that would become more favourable and suitable under future climates. The model predicted an area of very highly suitable habitat (1247.4 km2), followed by highly suitable (2747.9 km2), moderately suitable (4002.3 km2), low suitable (4952.2 km2) and rarely suitable (4236 km2) in the current scenario. The projection of larger areas was falling into the "no change", followed by the "high suitable" and "low suitable" classes, for both the years 2050 and 2070 across all the RCPs. Furthermore, the projections indicated a consistent trend of increasing suitability for the cheer pheasant at higher elevations and a decline at lower elevations across RCPs for 2050 and 2070. Moreover, the mean diurnal temperature range was identified as the crucial driving factor, followed by isothermally and precipitation, influencing the species' shift towards suitable habitats at higher altitudes. The study can aid policymakers in developing effective conservation strategies to protect Himalayan range-restricted bird species in the face of climate change.

Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation

Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.

Environmental predictors may change at fine scale habitat suitability modelling: implications for conservation of Kashmir musk deer in three protected areas of Uttarakhand, India

The Kashmir musk deer (Moschus cupreus, hereafter KMD) is one of the top conservation priority species which is facing population decline due to poaching, habitat loss, and climate change. Therefore, the long-term survival and viability of KMD populations in their natural habitat require conservation and management of suitable habitats. Hence, the present study attempted to assess the suitable habitat of KMD in three protected areas (PAs) of the Western Himalayan region of Uttarakhand using the Maxent modelling algorithm. Our results suggest that Kedarnath wildlife sanctuary (KWLS) possesses the maximum highly suitable habitats (22.55%) of KMD, followed by Govind Pashu Vihar National Park & Sanctuary (GPVNP&S; 8.33%) and Gangotri National Park (GNP; 5%). Among the environmental variables, altitude was the major contributing factor governing the distribution of KMD in KWLS. In contrast, human footprint in GPVNP&S and precipitation in GNP were the major contributing factors governing the distribution of KMD in these respective PAs. The response curve indicated that habitats with less disturbance falling in the altitudinal zone of 2000-4000 m were the most suitable habitat range for the distribution of KMD in all three PAs. However, in the case of GNP suitable habitat of KMD increases with an increase in the value of variables bio_13 (precipitation of wettest month). Further, based on our results, we believe that the predictors of suitable habitat change are site specific and cannot be generalized in the entire distribution range of the species. Therefore, the present study will be helpful in making proper habitat management actions at fine scale for the conservation of KMD.

Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran

Stachys inflata Benth. is a perennial shrub plant, with powerful natural antioxidant agents, which is recognized as a famous medicinal plant that is widely applied to treat Infection, Asthma, and Rheumatism. Iran is renowned as a center of diversity for Stachys, however, the ideal habitats of S. inflata in this nation remain unknown. The potential and future distribution of suitable habitats for S. inflata were projected using an ensembles ecological niche model in Isfahan province, Iran. We used occurrence data (using GPS), bioclimatic and topographic variables from the Chelsa and WorldClim databases to model the current and future potential distribution of this valuable species. The results showed that: (i) S. inflata is mainly distributed in the south, southwest, center, and west of the Isfahan province, and the excellent habitats of S. inflata accounted for 14.34% of the 107,000 km² study area; (ii) mean annual temperature, mean daily temperature of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, and elevation were the four most important variables that affect the distribution of S. inflata, with a cumulative contribution of 56.55%; and (iii) about the half (- 42.36%) of the currently excellent habitats of S. inflata show a tendency to decrease from now to the 2080s, while often the area of other S. inflata habitats increases (the area of unsuitable habitat: 5.83%, the area of low habitat suitability: 24.68%, the area of moderate habitat suitability: 2.66%, and the area of high habitat suitability: 2.88%). The increase in the area of other S. inflata habitats is different and they are less favorable than the excellent habitat. The results help establishing a framework for long-term in-situ and ex-situ conservation and management practices in habitats of S. inflata in rangeland and agricultural ecosystems.

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling

Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 km², 790,837 km² and 676,918 km² for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa.

Modeling Distribution and Habitat Suitability for the Snow Leopard in Bhutan

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is one of the world's most elusive felids. In Bhutan, which is one of the 12 countries where the species still persists, reliable information on its distribution and habitat suitability is lacking, thus impeding effective conservation planning for the species. To fill this knowledge gap, we created a country-wide species distribution model using “presence-only” data from 420 snow leopard occurrences (345 from a sign survey and 77 from a camera-trapping survey) and 12 environmental covariates consisting of biophysical and anthropogenic factors. We analyzed the data in an ensemble model framework which combines the outputs from several species distribution models. To assess the adequacy of Bhutan's network of protected areas and their potential contribution toward the conservation of the species, we overlaid the output of the ensemble model on the spatial layers of protected areas and biological corridors. The ensemble model identified 7,206 km2 of Bhutan as suitable for the snow leopard: 3,647 km2 as highly suitable, 2,681 km2 as moderately suitable, and 878 km2 as marginally suitable. Forty percent of the total suitable habitat consisted of protected areas and a further 8% of biological corridors. These suitable habitats were characterized by a mean livestock density of 1.3 individuals per hectare, and a mean slope of 25°; they closely match the distribution of the snow leopard's main wild prey, the bharal (Pseudois nayaur). Our study shows that Bhutan's northern protected areas are a centre for snow leopard conservation both at the national and regional scale.

Genetic monitoring of Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral) from Western Himalayas, India

BACKGROUND

Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral), solitary cliff-dwelling species and are distributed throughout the Indian Himalayan region. Its populations across the range are facing severe threats due to habitat loss, fragmentation and changes in the land-use patterns by various anthropogenic activities.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We carried out genetic analyses of Himalayan goral using the mitochondrial control regions and microsatellite loci (n = 10) in the Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand. We reported a moderate genetic diversity at nuclear (Ho 0.602 ± 0.057) and mitochondrial markers (Hd-0.6931 ± 0.053; π-0.0048 ± 001). Bayesian skyline plot indicates a sharp decline in the goral population in the last 100 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate the population of Himalayan goral in Uttarkashi is under panmictic condition, plausibly due to long-ranging behaviour. The present study laid the foundation for future non-invasive genetics monitoring and detailed population genetic assessment of goral from the entire range in the Western Himalayas.

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. Similarly, at least one-fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

Functional traits of the world's late Quaternary large-bodied avian and mammalian herbivores

Prehistoric and recent extinctions of large-bodied terrestrial herbivores had significant and lasting impacts on Earth's ecosystems due to the loss of their distinct trait combinations. The world's surviving large-bodied avian and mammalian herbivores remain among the most threatened taxa. As such, a greater understanding of the ecological impacts of large herbivore losses is increasingly important. However, comprehensive and ecologically-relevant trait datasets for extinct and extant herbivores are lacking. Here, we present HerbiTraits, a comprehensive functional trait dataset for all late Quaternary terrestrial avian and mammalian herbivores ≥10 kg (545 species). HerbiTraits includes key traits that influence how herbivores interact with ecosystems, namely body mass, diet, fermentation type, habitat use, and limb morphology. Trait data were compiled from 557 sources and comprise the best available knowledge on late Quaternary large-bodied herbivores. HerbiTraits provides a tool for the analysis of herbivore functional diversity both past and present and its effects on Earth's ecosystems.