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Chen W, Wang X, Cai Y, Huang X, Li P, Liu W, Chang Q, Hu C. Potential distribution patterns and species richness of avifauna in rapidly urbanizing East China. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11515. [PMID: 38895583 PMCID: PMC11183928 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2024] [Revised: 05/09/2024] [Accepted: 05/15/2024] [Indexed: 06/21/2024] Open
Abstract
In recent years, increased species extinction and habitat loss have significantly reduced biodiversity, posing a serious threat to both nature and human survival. Environmental factors strongly influence bird distribution and diversity. The potential distribution patterns and species richness offer a conservation modeling framework for policymakers to assess the effectiveness of natural protected areas (PAs) and optimize their existing ones. Very few such studies have been published that cover a large and complete taxonomic group with fine resolution at regional scale. Here, using birds as a study group, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to analyze the pattern of bird species richness in Jiangsu Province. Using an unparalleled amount of occurrence data, we created species distribution models (SDMs) for 312 bird species to explore emerging diversity patterns at a resolution of 1 km2. The gradient of species richness is steep, decreasing sharply away from water bodies, particularly in the northern part of Jiangsu Province. The migratory status and feeding habits of birds also significantly influence the spatial distribution of avian species richness. This study reveals that the regions with high potential bird species richness are primarily distributed in three areas: the eastern coastal region, the surrounding area of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the surrounding area of Taihu Lake. Compared with species richness hotspots and existing PAs, we found that the majority of hotspots are well-protected. However, only a small portion of the regions, such as coastal areas of Sheyang County in Yancheng City, as well as some regions along the Yangtze River in Nanjing and Zhenjiang, currently have relatively weak protection. Using stacked SDMs, our study reveals effective insights into diversity patterns, directly informing conservation policies and contributing to macroecological research advancements.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wan Chen
- College of Environment and EcologyJiangsu Open University (The City Vocational College of Jiangsu)NanjingJiangsuChina
| | - Xuan Wang
- Jiangsu Academy of ForestryNanjingJiangsuChina
- College of Life SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingJiangsuChina
- Yangzhou Urban Forest Ecosystem National Research StationYangzhouJiangsuChina
| | - Yuanyuan Cai
- Shanghai International Airport Co., Ltd. Pudong International AirportShanghaiChina
| | - Xinglong Huang
- College of Life SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingJiangsuChina
| | - Peng Li
- College of Life SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingJiangsuChina
| | - Wei Liu
- Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental ProtectionNanjingJiangsuChina
| | - Qing Chang
- College of Life SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingJiangsuChina
| | - Chaochao Hu
- College of Life SciencesNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingJiangsuChina
- Analytical and Testing CenterNanjing Normal UniversityNanjingJiangsuChina
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Arlé E, Knight TM, Jiménez‐Muñoz M, Biancolini D, Belmaker J, Meyer C. The cumulative niche approach: A framework to assess the performance of ecological niche model projections. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11060. [PMID: 38384827 PMCID: PMC10880136 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2024] [Accepted: 02/04/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are often used to project species distributions within alien ranges and in future climatic scenarios. However, ENMs depend on species-environment equilibrium, which may be absent for actively expanding species. We present a novel framework to estimate whether species have reached environmental equilibrium in their native and alien ranges. The method is based on the estimation of niche breadth with the accumulation of species occurrences. An asymptote will indicate exhaustive knowledge of the realised niches. We demonstrate the CNA framework for 26 species of mammals, amphibians, and birds. Possible outcomes of the framework include: (1) There is enough data to quantify the native and alien realised niches, allowing us to calculate niche expansion between the native and alien ranges, also indicating that ENMs can be reliably projected to new environmental conditions. (2) The data in the native range is not adequate but an asymptote is reached in the alien realised niche, indicating low confidence in our ability to evaluate niche expansion in the alien range but high confidence in model projections to new environmental conditions within the alien range. (3) There is enough data to quantify the native realised niche, but not enough knowledge about the alien realised niche, hindering the reliability of projections beyond sampled conditions. (4) Both the native and alien ranges do not reach an asymptote, and thus few robust conclusions about the species' niche or future projections can be made. Our framework can be used to detect species' environmental equilibrium in both the native and alien ranges, to quantify changes in the realised niche during the invasion processes, and to estimate the likely accuracy of model projections to new environmental conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Arlé
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle‐Jena‐LeipzigLeipzigGermany
- School of Zoology, George S. Wise Faculty of Life SciencesTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
| | - Tiffany Marie Knight
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle‐Jena‐LeipzigLeipzigGermany
- Department Community EcologyHelmholtz Centre for Environmental Research‐UFZHalle (Saale)Germany
- Institute of BiologyMartin Luther University Halle‐WittenbergHalle (Saale)Germany
| | - Marina Jiménez‐Muñoz
- Core Facility Statistical Consulting, Helmholz Centre MunichGerman Research Centre for Environmental Health GmbHMunichGermany
| | - Dino Biancolini
- Institute for BioEconomy (CNR‐IBE)National Research Council of ItalyRomeItaly
| | - Jonathan Belmaker
- School of Zoology, George S. Wise Faculty of Life SciencesTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
- The Steinhardt Museum of Natural HistoryTel Aviv UniversityTel AvivIsrael
| | - Carsten Meyer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle‐Jena‐LeipzigLeipzigGermany
- Faculty of Biosciences, Pharmacy and PsychologyUniversity of LeipzigLeipzigGermany
- Faculty of Natural Sciences III – Agricultural and Nutritional Sciences, Geosciences and Computer ScienceHalle (Saale)Germany
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Mata-Guel EO, Soh MCK, Butler CW, Morris RJ, Razgour O, Peh KSH. Impacts of anthropogenic climate change on tropical montane forests: an appraisal of the evidence. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:1200-1224. [PMID: 36990691 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2022] [Revised: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023]
Abstract
In spite of their small global area and restricted distributions, tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and important ecosystem services providers, but are also highly vulnerable to climate change. To protect and preserve these ecosystems better, it is crucial to inform the design and implementation of conservation policies with the best available scientific evidence, and to identify knowledge gaps and future research needs. We conducted a systematic review and an appraisal of evidence quality to assess the impacts of climate change on TMFs. We identified several skews and shortcomings. Experimental study designs with controls and long-term (≥10 years) data sets provide the most reliable evidence, but were rare and gave an incomplete understanding of climate change impacts on TMFs. Most studies were based on predictive modelling approaches, short-term (<10 years) and cross-sectional study designs. Although these methods provide moderate to circumstantial evidence, they can advance our understanding on climate change effects. Current evidence suggests that increasing temperatures and rising cloud levels have caused distributional shifts (mainly upslope) of montane biota, leading to alterations in biodiversity and ecological functions. Neotropical TMFs were the best studied, thus the knowledge derived there can serve as a proxy for climate change responses in under-studied regions elsewhere. Most studies focused on vascular plants, birds, amphibians and insects, with other taxonomic groups poorly represented. Most ecological studies were conducted at species or community levels, with a marked paucity of genetic studies, limiting understanding of the adaptive capacity of TMF biota. We thus highlight the long-term need to widen the methodological, thematic and geographical scope of studies on TMFs under climate change to address these uncertainties. In the short term, however, in-depth research in well-studied regions and advances in computer modelling approaches offer the most reliable sources of information for expeditious conservation action for these threatened forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erik O Mata-Guel
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Malcolm C K Soh
- National Park Boards, 1 Cluny Road, Singapore, 259569, Singapore
| | - Connor W Butler
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Rebecca J Morris
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
| | - Orly Razgour
- Biosciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK
| | - Kelvin S-H Peh
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield Campus, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
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Asgharzadeh M, Alesheikh AA, Yousefi M. Disentangling the impacts of climate and land cover changes on habitat suitability of common pheasant Phasianus colchicus along elevational gradients in Iran. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2023; 30:60958-60966. [PMID: 37042917 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-26742-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate and land cover change are critical drivers of avian species range shift. Thus, predicting avian species' response to the land and climate changes and identifying their future suitable habitats can help their conservation planning. The common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) is a species of conservation concern in Iran and is included in the list of Iran's protected avian species. The species faces multiple threats such as habitat destruction, land cover change, and overhunting in the country. In this study, we model the potential impacts of future climate and land cover change on the habitat suitability of common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) along elevational gradients in Mazandaran province in Iran. We used shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios and the 2015-2020 trend to generate possible future land cover projections for 2050. As for climate change projections, we used representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Next, we applied current and future climate and land cover projections to investigate how habitat suitability of common pheasant will change between 2020 and 2050 using species distribution modeling (SDM). Our results show that the species has 6000 km2 suitable habitat; however, between 900 and 1965 km2 of its habitat may be reduced by 2050. Furthermore, we found that the severity of the effects of climate and land cover change varies at different altitudes. At low altitudes, the impact of changing land structure is superior. Instead, climate change has a critical role in habitat loss at higher altitudes and imposes a limiting role on the potential range shifts. Overall, this study demonstrates the vital role of land cover and climate change in better understanding the potential alterations in avian distribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mojtaba Asgharzadeh
- Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Ali Asghar Alesheikh
- Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
| | - Masoud Yousefi
- LIB, Museum Koenig, Bonn, Leibniz Institute for the Analysis of Biodiversity Change, Adenauerallee 127, 53113, Bonn, Germany
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Cuervo PF, Artigas P, Lorenzo-Morales J, Bargues MD, Mas-Coma S. Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:tropicalmed8040187. [PMID: 37104313 PMCID: PMC10141209 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2023] [Revised: 03/17/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pablo Fernando Cuervo
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Correspondence:
| | - Patricio Artigas
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Jacob Lorenzo-Morales
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Instituto Universitario de Enfermedades Tropicales y Salud Pública de Canarias, Universidad de La Laguna, Av. Astrofísico Fco. Sánchez s/n, 38203 La Laguna, Canary Islands, Spain
| | - María Dolores Bargues
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Santiago Mas-Coma
- Departamento de Parasitologia, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Valencia, Av. Vicent Andres Estelles s/n, 46100 Burjassot, Valencia, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos IIII, C/Monforte de Lemos 3-5. Pabellón 11, Planta 0, 28029 Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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John C, Post E. Projected bioclimatic distributions in Nearctic Bovidae signal the potential for reduced overlap with protected areas. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9189. [PMID: 35979518 PMCID: PMC9366586 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2022] [Revised: 07/18/2022] [Accepted: 07/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Assumptions about factors such as climate in shaping species' realized and potential distributions underlie much of conservation planning and wildlife management. Climate and climatic change lead to shifts in species distributions through both direct and indirect ecological pressures. Distributional shifts may be particularly important if range overlap is altered between interacting species, or between species and protected areas. The cattle family (Bovidae) represents a culturally, economically, and ecologically important taxon that occupies many of the world's rangelands. In contemporary North America, five wild bovid species inhabit deserts, prairies, mountains, and tundra from Mexico to Greenland. Here, we aim to understand how future climate change will modify environmental characteristics associated with North American bovid species relative to the distribution of extant protected areas. We fit species distribution models for each species to climate, topography, and land cover data using observations from a citizen science dataset. We then projected modeled distributions to the end of the 21st century for each bovid species under two scenarios of anticipated climate change. Modeling results suggest that suitable habitat will shift inconsistently across species and that such shifts will lead to species-specific variation in overlap between potential habitat and existing protected areas. Furthermore, projected overlap with protected areas was sensitive to the warming scenario under consideration, with diminished realized protected area under greater warming. Conservation priorities and designation of new protected areas should account for ecological consequences of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christian John
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCaliforniaUSA
| | - Eric Post
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation BiologyUniversity of CaliforniaDavisCaliforniaUSA
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New Evidence on the Linkage of Population Trends and Species Traits to Long-Term Niche Changes. BIRDS 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/birds3010011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite the assessment of long-term niche dynamics could provide crucial information for investigating species responses to environmental changes, it is a poorly investigated topic in ecology. Here, we present a case study of multi-species niche analysis for 71 common breeding birds in Northern Italy, exploring long-term niche changes from 1992 to 2017 and their relationship with both population trends and species traits. We (i) quantified the realized Grinnellian niche in the environmental space, (ii) compared variations in niche breadth and centroid, (iii) tested niche divergence and conservatism through equivalency and similarity tests, (iv) calculated niche temporal overlap, expansion and unfilling indices, and (v) investigated their association with both population changes and species traits. Results supported niche divergence (equivalency test) for 32% of species, although two-thirds were not supported by the similarity test. We detected a general tendency to adjust the niche centroids towards warmer thermal conditions. Increasing populations were positively correlated with niche expansion, while negatively correlated with niche overlap, albeit at the limit of the significance threshold. We found moderate evidence for a non-random association between niche changes and species traits, especially for body size, clutch size, number of broods per year, inhabited landscape type, and migration strategy. We encourage studies correlating long-term population trends and niche changes with species traits’ information and a specific focus on cause-effect relationship at both the single and multiple-species level.
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