The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries

Commodity prices and economic growth: Empirical evidence from countries with different income groups

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of global commodity prices such as beverage, energy, fertilizer, food, metal and mineral, precious metal and agricultural raw material on GDP per capita of countries with different income levels which are low, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high. The results of the study using panel system GMM method over the period 2007-2021 showed that for all income group countries, the impact of energy and fertilizer prices on GDP per capita is negative, while the impact of food and metal and mineral prices is positive on GDP per capita. The study also found that rising prices of agricultural raw materials reduces GDP per capita of all income group countries except lower-middle income countries. Moreover, according to the results of the study, rising beverage prices increased the GDP per capita only of high-income countries, while rising precious metal prices decreased the GDP per capita of lower-middle and high-income countries. The study revealed that price changes in all commodity groups have an impact on the GDP per capita of high-income countries. It is demonstrated that price changes in all commodity groups have an impact in both directions on the GDP per capita of all income groups, depending on whether they are net producers or net consumers. The results of the study showed that, contrary to the literature, the countries most affected by commodity prices are high-income countries. Based on the empirical findings, this study point to the need for international cooperation to minimize the adverse effects of commodity price changes.

Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on International Staple Agrifood Trade Networks

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2023/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks and an aggregate international food trade network. We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average in-degree, density, and efficiency in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.

Adopting yield-improving practices to meet maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa without cropland expansion

Maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase 2.3 times during the next 30 years driven by demographic and dietary changes. Over the past two decades, the area cropped with maize has expanded by 17 million hectares in the region, with limited yield increase. Following this trend could potentially result in further maize cropland expansion and the need for imports to satisfy domestic demand. Here, we use data collected from 14,773 smallholder fields in the region to identify agronomic practices that can improve farm yield gains. We find that agronomic practices related to cultivar selection, and nutrient, pest, and crop management can double on-farm yields and provide an additional 82 million tons of maize within current cropped area. Research and development investments should be oriented towards agricultural practices with proven capacity to raise maize yields in the region.

Effects of Blended Diesel-Biodiesel Fuel on Emissions of a Common Rail Direct Injection Diesel Engine with Different Exhaust Gas Recirculation Rates

The aim of the study was to investigate the exhaust gas emissions and fuel consumption of a common rail direct injection (CRDI) diesel engine using mixed diesel (B10) and biodiesel (B20-B100) fuels. The study's primary objective was to determine the effects of blended diesel-biodiesel fuel on CRDI emissions based on different exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) rates, including carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), oxygen (O2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions, smoke opacity, exhaust gas temperature, and fuel consumption. The CRDI experiments involved adjusting the different engine speeds (1400-3000 rpm) and EGR rates (0 and 12.5%), which were analyzed to determine their impact on these parameters for both blended diesel and biodiesel fuels. The results showed that under the conditions of no EGR (0%), the CO and HC emissions and the smoke opacity were lower than those with a 12.5% EGR rate for all fuel types and all cases. With 12.5% EGR rate, the O2 emissions and the EGT of the CRDI diesel engine decreased, which resulted in significantly lower NOx emissions because of EGR into the combustion chamber. For the maximum engine speed of 3000 rpm and with no EGR, the CO and HC emissions and the smoke opacity were lower than those with a 12.5% EGR rate for all fuel types. With a 12.5% EGR rate at 3000 rpm, the O2 emissions and the exhaust gas temperature were reduced by 0.07% and 2.27%, respectively, and the NOx emissions were reduced by 2.54%. However, with EGR, the CO and HC emissions and the smoke opacity increased by 7.70%, 18.61%, and 0.4%, respectively. Furthermore, the fuel consumption of pure biodiesel (B100) at 3000 rpm with a 12.5% EGR rate was reduced by 2.81% compared to that with a 0% EGR rate. Because the temperature in the combustion chamber is high enough for the engine to run, the EGR reuses a portion of the exhaust gases and can help to minimize the quantity of fuel in the combustion chamber. As a suggestion based on these observations, biodiesel fuel should not exceed B80 because the viscosity and density of fuel that are too high may affect the fuel injection system, both the injectors, and the pressure pump, causing the injectors to be unable to work correctly. These findings can contribute to the development of strategies and technologies for reducing emissions and improving fuel efficiency in CRDI diesel engines.

Impacts of reduced synthetic fertiliser use under current and future climates: Exploration using integrated agroecosystem modelling in the upper River Taw observatory, UK

The intensification of farming and increased nitrogen fertiliser use, to satisfy the growing population demand, contributed to the extant climate change crisis. Use of synthetic fertilisers in agriculture is a significant source of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, especially potent nitrous oxide (N2O). To achieve the ambitious policy target for net zero by 2050 in the UK, it is crucial to understand the impacts of potential reductions in fertiliser use on multiple ecosystem services, including crop production, GHG emissions and soil organic carbon (SOC) storge. A novel integrated modelling approach using three established agroecosystem models (SPACSYS, CSM and RothC) was implemented to evaluate the associated impacts of fertiliser reduction (10%, 30% and 50%) under current and projected climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in a study catchment in Southwest England. 48 unique combinations of soil types, climate conditions and fertiliser inputs were evaluated for five major arable crops plus improved grassland. With a 30% reduction in fertiliser inputs, the estimated yield loss under current climate ranged between 11% and 30% for arable crops compared with a 20-24% and 6-22% reduction in N2O and methane emissions, respectively. Biomass was reduced by 10-25% aboveground and by <12% for the root system. Relative to the baseline scenario, soil type dependent reductions in SOC sequestration rates are predicted under future climate with reductions in fertiliser inputs. Losses in SOC were more than doubled under the RCP4.5 scenario. The emissions from energy use, including embedded emissions from fertiliser manufacture, was a significant source (14-48%) for all arable crops and the associated GWP20.

The Influence of Household and Community Food Environments on Food Insecurity in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Insufficient access to enough quality food remains a public health challenge in South Africa. This study aimed to report the influence of community and the household environment, food system inventories, and food procurement on household food security. The findings alluded that food insecurity is prevalent among the rural areas in South Africa. Large household sizes and a limited access to and use of water and food storage facilities for food preservation are the major household determinants. A multi-sectoral nutrition-planning approach that accelerates the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals should be reinforced. We recommend the promotion of food production for consumption in rural communities.

Countries' vulnerability to food supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war from a trade dependency perspective

Disruptions of key food and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine have exposed many countries to challenges accessing some commodities since these countries' war began. We evaluated the short-term, external, and direct impacts of disruptions of six food commodities and three types of fertilizer supplies from Russia and Ukraine on food access for all trading partners of the two countries by applying a set of trade and socioeconomic indicators. We found that the external food supplies of 279 countries and territories were affected to varying degrees; 24 countries-especially Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Mongolia-are extremely vulnerable because they depend almost entirely on a variety of food imports from Russia and Ukraine. Access to fertilizers was affected in 136 countries and territories, particularly Estonia (potassic fertilizer), Mongolia (nitrogenous fertilizers), Kazakhstan (mixed fertilizers), and Brazil, the United States, China, and India (all types of fertilizers). An integrated assessment of countries' import types, purchasing power parity per capita, and populations indicated that the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Pakistan are most vulnerable to such supply disruptions. Development of research into diversification and decentralization strategies for food access is needed to guide stable food supply policies.

Predicting the Potential Impact of Emergency on Global Grain Security: A Case of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Global emergencies have a profound impact on exacerbating food insecurity, and the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged as a significant driver of a global food crisis. Accurately quantifying the impact of this conflict is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. The multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation approach was used to construct a grain security composite index (GSCI). Moreover, econometric model was used to predict the potential impacts of the conflict on global grain security in 2030 under two scenarios: with and without the "Russia-Ukraine conflict". The results conclude that global food prices reached unprecedented levels as a consequence of the conflict, leading to notable fluctuations in food prices, especially with a significant surge in wheat prices. The conflict had a negative impact on global grain security, resulting in a decline in grain security from 0.538 to 0.419. Predictions indicate that the influence of the conflict on global grain security will be substantially greater compared to the scenario without the conflict in 2023-2030, ranging from 0.033 to 0.13. Furthermore, grain security will first decrease and then increase under the sustained consequences of the conflict. The achievement of the 2030 sustainable development goals will encounter significant challenges in light of these circumstances.

Geopolitical risks for Egypt wheat supply and trade

Introduction

Since 2005, Russia has established a stable position in Egypt's wheat imports, and after 2016, it became the largest global wheat exporter. The shift in Russian grain production has visibly affected wheat export destinations in favor of developing countries. This paper identifies the main determinants of wheat trade in Egypt concerning the primary risks associated with the war in Ukraine.

Methods

The paper utilizes time series analysis, index analysis, and an econometric model to define the statistical relationship between the quantity of wheat imported into Egypt and population development, wheat price, and wheat production.

Results

Despite increasing wheat production growth rates (1.9% p.a. over 2000–2020) and a growing population (2.01% p.a.), Egypt is unable to reduce its import dependence below 50% of total consumption. Undernourishment in Egypt remains at 5.2%–5.4% of the population. The econometric model shows that variables describing the evolution of production, population, and prices are statistically significant in relation to wheat imports. Egypt's wheat imports continue to increase even with rising prices, which is typical for developing countries. The war in Ukraine and associated commodity price increases have far-reaching implications for Africa's food security and supply systems.

Discussion

Egypt's vulnerability to external influences, such as climate change, migration, rising commodity prices, and population growth, exacerbates the situation. Most African countries, including Egypt, struggle with the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also face rising food and energy prices, conflicts between the world's largest food producers, and increasing poverty rates. The research findings confirm that Egypt is among the highly vulnerable countries due to the war in Ukraine and the disruption of agricultural supply chains.