Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on critical healthcare capacity

Spatial analysis of dengue fever incidence and serotype distribution in Vientiane Capital, Laos: A multi-year study

Laos is a hyperendemic country of all 4 dengue serotypes. Various factors contribute to the spread of the disease including viral itself, vectors, and environment. This study aims to analyze dengue data and its incidence in nine districts of Vientiane Capital, Laos spanning from 2019 to 2021 by data collected from Mittaphab Hospital. The Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was applied to assess spatial distribution and identify high-probability locations for dengue occurrence by analyzing crucial environmental and climatic conditions. Dengue cases were more prominent in female (54.88 %) and highest case number was found in worker group (29.02 %) followed by student (28.47 %) and officer (16.92 %). In this study, the age group 21-30 years old had the highest infection rate (42.23 %), followed by 10-20 years old (24.21 %). Most of dengue cases was primary infection (91.61 %). Dengue serotype 2 predominated in 2019 and 2020 and substitute by serotype 1 in 2021. Across the nine districts of Vientiane Capital, the highest incidence of dengue was found in Xaythany district population in 2019, shifting to Chanthabouly district in 2020 and 2021. The MaxEnt revealed potentially most suitable areas for dengue were widely distributed central south part of Vientiane, Laos. Additionally, the best predictive variable for dengue occurrence was normalized difference vegetation index. Understanding of case characteristics and spatial distribution features of dengue will be helpful in effective surveillance and disease control in the future.

The transmission network and spatial-temporal distributions of COVID-19: A case study in Lanzhou, China

Public emergencies exert substantial adverse effects on the socioeconomic development of cities. Investigating the transmission characteristics of COVID-19 can lead to evidence-based strategies for future pandemic intervention and prevention. Drawing upon primary COVID-19 data collected at both the street level and from individuals with confirmed cases in Lanzhou, China, our study examined the spatial-temporal distribution of the pandemic at a detailed level. First, we constructed transmission networks based on social relationships and spatial behavior to elucidate the actual natural transmission chain of COVID-19. We then analyze key information regarding pandemic spread, such as superspreaders, superspreading places, and peak hours. Furthermore, we constructed a space-time path model to deduce the spatial transmission trajectory of the pandemic while validating it with real activity trajectory data from confirmed cases. Finally, we investigate the impacts of pandemic prevention and control policies. The progression of the pandemic exhibits distinct stages and spatial clustering characteristics. People with complex social relationships and daily life trajectories and places with high pedestrian flow and commercial activity venues are prone to becoming superspreaders and superspreading places. The transmission path of the pandemic showed a pattern of short-distance and adjacent transmission, with most areas not affected. Early-stage control measures effectively disrupt transmission hotspots and impede the spatiotemporal trajectory of pandemic propagation, thereby enhancing the efficacy of prevention and control efforts. These findings elucidate the characteristics and transmission processes underlying pandemics, facilitating targeted and adaptable policy formulation to shape sustainable and resilient cities.

Mapping the pandemic: a review of Geographical Information Systems-based spatial modeling of Covid-19

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 has caused more than 6.5 million deaths, while over 600 million people are infected. With regard to the tools and techniques of disease analysis, spatial analysis is increasingly being used to analyze the impact of COVID-19. The present review offers an assessment of research that used regional data systems to study the COVID-19 epidemic published between 2020 and 2022. The research focuses on: categories of the area, authors, methods, and procedures used by the authors and the results of their findings. This input will enable the contrast of different spatial models used for regional data systems with COVID-19. Our outcomes showed increased use of geographically weighted regression and Moran I spatial statistical tools applied to better spatial and time-based gauges. We have also found an increase in the use of local models compared to other spatial statistics models/methods.

Resilience in Emergency Medicine during COVID-19: Evaluating Staff Expectations and Preparedness

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic brought about significant challenges for health systems globally, with medical professionals at the forefront of this crisis. Understanding their organizational expectations and well-being implications is crucial for crafting responsive healthcare environments.

METHODS

Between 2021 and 2022, an online survey was conducted among 852 medical professionals across four provinces in Poland: Mazovia, Łódź, Świętokrzyskie, and Lublin. The survey tool, based on a comprehensive literature review, comprised dichotomous questions and specific queries to gather explicit insights. A 5-point Likert scale was implemented to capture nuanced perceptions. Additionally, the Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-Civilian (PCL-C) was utilized to ascertain the correlation between workplace organization and post-traumatic stress symptoms.

RESULTS

A noteworthy 84.6% of participants believed their employers could enhance safety measures, highlighting a discrepancy between healthcare workers' expectations and organizational implementations. Major concerns encompassed the demand for improved personal protective equipment (44.6%), structured debriefing sessions (40%), distinct building entrances and exits (38.8%), and psychological support (38.3%). Statistical analyses showcased significant variations in 'Avoidance' and 'Overall PTSD Score' between individuals who had undergone epidemic safety procedure training and those who had not.

CONCLUSIONS

The results illuminate the imperative for healthcare organizations to remain agile, attentive, and deeply compassionate, especially during worldwide health emergencies. Despite showcasing remarkable resilience during the pandemic, medical professionals ardently seek an environment that underscores their safety and mental well-being. These findings reinforce the call for healthcare institutions and policymakers to champion a forward-thinking, employee-focused approach. Additionally, the data suggest a potential avenue for future research focusing on specific demographic groups, further enriching our understanding and ensuring a more comprehensive readiness for impending health crises.

Spatiotemporal Trends in Self-Reported Mask-Wearing Behavior in the United States: Analysis of a Large Cross-sectional Survey

BACKGROUND

Face mask wearing has been identified as an effective strategy to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, yet mask mandates were never imposed nationally in the United States. This decision resulted in a patchwork of local policies and varying compliance, potentially generating heterogeneities in the local trajectories of COVID-19 in the United States. Although numerous studies have investigated the patterns and predictors of masking behavior nationally, most suffer from survey biases and none have been able to characterize mask wearing at fine spatial scales across the United States through different phases of the pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

Urgently needed is a debiased spatiotemporal characterization of mask-wearing behavior in the United States. This information is critical to further assess the effectiveness of masking, evaluate the drivers of transmission at different time points during the pandemic, and guide future public health decisions through, for example, forecasting disease surges.

METHODS

We analyzed spatiotemporal masking patterns in over 8 million behavioral survey responses from across the United States, starting in September 2020 through May 2021. We adjusted for sample size and representation using binomial regression models and survey raking, respectively, to produce county-level monthly estimates of masking behavior. We additionally debiased self-reported masking estimates using bias measures derived by comparing vaccination data from the same survey to official records at the county level. Lastly, we evaluated whether individuals' perceptions of their social environment can serve as a less biased form of behavioral surveillance than self-reported data.

RESULTS

We found that county-level masking behavior was spatially heterogeneous along an urban-rural gradient, with mask wearing peaking in winter 2021 and declining sharply through May 2021. Our results identified regions where targeted public health efforts could have been most effective and suggest that individuals' frequency of mask wearing may be influenced by national guidance and disease prevalence. We validated our bias correction approach by comparing debiased self-reported mask-wearing estimates with community-reported estimates, after addressing issues of a small sample size and representation. Self-reported behavior estimates were especially prone to social desirability and nonresponse biases, and our findings demonstrated that these biases can be reduced if individuals are asked to report on community rather than self behaviors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work highlights the importance of characterizing public health behaviors at fine spatiotemporal scales to capture heterogeneities that may drive outbreak trajectories. Our findings also emphasize the need for a standardized approach to incorporating behavioral big data into public health response efforts. Even large surveys are prone to bias; thus, we advocate for a social sensing approach to behavioral surveillance to enable more accurate estimates of health behaviors. Finally, we invite the public health and behavioral research communities to use our publicly available estimates to consider how bias-corrected behavioral estimates may improve our understanding of protective behaviors during crises and their impact on disease dynamics.

Modelling the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 outbreaks and prioritization of the risk areas in Toronto, Canada

Modelling the spatiotemporal spread of a highly transmissible disease is challenging. We developed a novel spatiotemporal spread model, and the neighbourhood-level data of COVID-19 in Toronto was fitted into the model to visualize the spread of the disease in the study area within two weeks of the onset of first outbreaks from index neighbourhood to its first-order neighbourhoods (called dispersed neighbourhoods). We also model the data to classify hotspots based on the overall incidence rate and persistence of the cases during the study period. The spatiotemporal spread model shows that the disease spread to 1-4 neighbourhoods bordering the index neighbourhood within two weeks. Some dispersed neighbourhoods became index neighbourhoods and further spread the disease to their nearby neighbourhoods. Most of the sources of infection in the dispersed neighbourhood were households and communities (49%), and after excluding the healthcare institutions (40%), it becomes 82%, suggesting the expansion of transmission was from close contacts. The classification of hotspots informs high-priority areas concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern parts of Toronto. The spatiotemporal spread model along with the hotspot classification approach, could be useful for a deeper understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases and planning for an effective mitigation strategy where local-level spatially enabled data are available.

Application of big data and artificial intelligence in epidemic surveillance and containment

Faced with the current time-sensitive COVID-19 pandemic, the overburdened healthcare systems have resulted in a strong demand to develop newer methods to control the spread of the pandemic. Big data and artificial intelligence (AI) have been leveraged amid the COVID-19 pandemic; however, little is known about their use for supporting public health efforts. In epidemic surveillance and containment, efforts are needed to treat critical patients, track and manage the health status of residents, isolate suspected cases, and develop vaccines and antiviral drugs. The applications of emerging practices of artificial intelligence and big data have become powerful "weapons" to fight against the pandemic and provide strong support in pandemic prevention and control, such as early warning, analysis and judgment, interruption and intervention of epidemic, to achieve goals of early detection, early report, early diagnosis, early isolation and early treatment. These are the decisive factors to control the spread of the epidemic and reduce the mortality. This paper systematically summarized the application of big data and AI in epidemic, and describes practical cases and challenges with emphasis on epidemic prevention and control. The included studies showed that big data and AI have the potential strength to fight against COVID-19. However, many of the proposed methods are not yet widely accepted. Thus, the most rewarding research would be on methods that promise value beyond COVID-19. More efforts are needed for developing standardized reporting protocols or guidelines for practice.

Deaths during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from regional patterns in Germany and Poland

BACKGROUND

Given the nature of the spread of SARS-CoV-2, strong regional patterns in the fatal consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic related to local characteristics such as population and health care infrastructures were to be expected. In this paper we conduct a detailed examination of the spatial correlation of deaths in the first year of the pandemic in two neighbouring countries - Germany and Poland, which, among high income countries, seem particularly different in terms of the death toll associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis aims to yield evidence that spatial patterns of mortality can provide important clues as to the reasons behind significant differences in the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in these two countries.

METHODS

Based on official health and population statistics on the level of counties, we explore the spatial nature of mortality in 2020 in the two countries - which, as we show, reflects important contextual differences. We investigate three different measures of deaths: the officially recorded COVID-19 deaths, the total values of excessive deaths and the difference between the two. We link them to important pre-pandemic regional characteristics such as population, health care and economic conditions in multivariate spatial autoregressive models. From the point of view of pandemic related fatalities we stress the distinction between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19, separating the latter further into two types, the spatial nature of which is likely to differ.

RESULTS

The COVID-19 pandemic led to much more excess deaths in Poland than in Germany. Detailed spatial analysis of deaths at the regional level shows a consistent pattern of deaths officially registered as related to COVID-19. For excess deaths, however, we find strong spatial correlation in Germany but little such evidence in Poland.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to Germany, for Poland we do not observe the expected spatial pattern of total excess deaths and the excess deaths over and above the official COVID-19 deaths. This difference cannot be explained by pre-pandemic regional factors such as economic and population structures or by healthcare infrastructure. The findings point to the need for alternative explanations related to the Polish policy reaction to the pandemic and failures in the areas of healthcare and public health, which resulted in a massive loss of life.

Spatiotemporal trends in self-reported mask-wearing behavior in the United States: Analysis of a large cross-sectional survey

Background

Face mask-wearing has been identified as an effective strategy to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2, yet mask mandates were never imposed nationally in the United States. This decision resulted in a patchwork of local policies and varying compliance potentially generating heterogeneities in the local trajectories of COVID-19 in the U.S. While numerous studies have investigated patterns and predictors of masking behavior nationally, most suffer from survey biases and none have been able to characterize mask-wearing at fine spatial scales across the U.S. through different phases of the pandemic.

Objective

Urgently needed is a debiased spatiotemporal characterization of mask-wearing behavior in the U.S. This information is critical to further assess the effectiveness of masking, evaluate drivers of transmission at different time points during the pandemic, and guide future public health decisions through, for example, forecasting disease surges.

Methods

We analyze spatiotemporal masking patterns in over eight million behavioral survey responses from across the United States starting in September 2020 through May 2021. We adjust for sample size and representation using binomial regression models and survey raking, respectively, to produce county-level monthly estimates of masking behavior. We additionally debias self-reported masking estimates using bias measures derived by comparing vaccination data from the same survey to official records at the county-level. Lastly, we evaluate whether individuals' perceptions of their social environment can serve as a less biased form of behavioral surveillance than self-reported data.

Results

We find that county-level masking behavior is spatially heterogeneous along an urban-rural gradient, with mask-wearing peaking in winter 2021 and declining sharply through May 2021. Our results identify regions where targeted public health efforts could have been most effective and suggest that individuals' frequency of mask-wearing may be influenced by national guidance and disease prevalence. We validate our bias-correction approach by comparing debiased self-reported mask-wearing estimates with community-reported estimates, after addressing issues of small sample size and representation. Self-reported behavior estimates are especially prone to social desirability and non-response biases and our findings demonstrate that these biases can be reduced if individuals are asked to report on community rather than self behaviors.

Conclusions

Our work highlights the importance of characterizing public health behaviors at fine spatiotemporal scales to capture heterogeneities that may drive outbreak trajectories. Our findings also emphasize the need for a standardized approach to incorporating behavioral big data into public health response efforts. Even large surveys are prone to bias; thus, we advocate for a social sensing approach to behavioral surveillance to enable more accurate estimates of health behaviors. Finally, we invite the public health and behavioral research communities to use our publicly available estimates to consider how bias-corrected behavioral estimates may improve our understanding of protective behaviors during crises and their impact on disease dynamics.

Investigating the relationships between concentrated disadvantage, place connectivity, and COVID-19 fatality in the United States over time

BACKGROUND

Concentrated disadvantaged areas have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19 outbreak in the United States (US). Meanwhile, highly connected areas may contribute to higher human movement, leading to higher COVID-19 cases and deaths. This study examined the associations between concentrated disadvantage, place connectivity, and COVID-19 fatality in the US over time.

METHODS

Concentrated disadvantage was assessed based on the spatial concentration of residents with low socioeconomic status. Place connectivity was defined as the normalized number of shared Twitter users between the county and all other counties in the contiguous US in a year (Y = 2019). COVID-19 fatality was measured as the cumulative COVID-19 deaths divided by the cumulative COVID-19 cases. Using county-level (N = 3,091) COVID-19 fatality over four time periods (up to October 31, 2021), we performed mixed-effect negative binomial regressions to examine the association between concentrated disadvantage, place connectivity, and COVID-19 fatality, considering potential state-level variations. The moderation effects of county-level place connectivity and concentrated disadvantage were analyzed. Spatially lagged variables of COVID-19 fatality were added to the models to control for the effect of spatial autocorrelations in COVID-19 fatality.

RESULTS

Concentrated disadvantage was significantly associated with an increased COVID-19 fatality in four time periods (p < 0.01). More importantly, moderation analysis suggested that place connectivity significantly exacerbated the harmful effect of concentrated disadvantage on COVID-19 fatality in three periods (p < 0.01), and this significant moderation effect increased over time. The moderation effects were also significant when using place connectivity data from the previous year.

CONCLUSIONS

Populations living in counties with both high concentrated disadvantage and high place connectivity may be at risk of a higher COVID-19 fatality. Greater COVID-19 fatality that occurs in concentrated disadvantaged counties may be partially due to higher human movement through place connectivity. In response to COVID-19 and other future infectious disease outbreaks, policymakers are encouraged to take advantage of historical disadvantage and place connectivity data in epidemic monitoring and surveillance of the disadvantaged areas that are highly connected, as well as targeting vulnerable populations and communities for additional intervention.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Deaths from COVID-19 in Peru during the Initial Pandemic Response

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Peru is the country with the highest mortality rate from COVID-19 globally, so the analysis of the characteristics of deaths is of national and international interest. The aim was to determine the epidemiological characteristics of deaths from COVID-19 in Peru from 28 March to 21 May 2020.

METHODS

Deaths from various sources were investigated, including the COVID-19 Epidemiological Surveillance and the National System of Deaths (SINADEF). In all, 3851 deaths that met the definition of a confirmed case and had a positive result of RT-PCR or rapid test IgM/IgG, were considered for the analysis. We obtained the epidemiological variables and carried out an analysis of time defined as the pre-hospital time from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization, and hospital time from the date of hospitalization to death.

RESULTS

Deaths were more frequent in males (72.0%), seniors (68.8%) and residents of the region of Lima (42.7%). In 17.8% of cases, the death occurred out-of-hospital, and 31.4% had some comorbidity. The median of pre-hospital time was 7 days (IQR: 4.0-9.0) and for the hospital time was 5 days (IQR: 3.0-9.0). The multivariable analysis with Poisson regression with robust variance found that the age group, comorbidity diagnosis and the region of origin significantly influenced pre-hospital time; while sex, comorbidity diagnosis, healthcare provider and the region of origin significantly influenced hospital time.

CONCLUSION

Deaths occurred mainly in males, seniors and on the coast, with considerable out-of-hospital deaths. Pre-hospital time was affected by age group, the diagnosis of comorbidities and the region of origin; while, hospital time was influenced by gender, the diagnosis of comorbidities, healthcare provider and the region of origin.

SARS-CoV-2 at the Human-Animal Interface: Implication for Global Public Health from an African Perspective

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become the most far-reaching public health crisis of modern times. Several efforts are underway to unravel its root cause as well as to proffer adequate preventive or inhibitive measures. Zoonotic spillover of the causative virus from an animal reservoir to the human population is being studied as the most likely event leading to the pandemic. Consequently, it is important to consider viral evolution and the process of spread within zoonotic anthropogenic transmission cycles as a global public health impact. The diverse routes of interspecies transmission of SARS-CoV-2 offer great potential for a future reservoir of pandemic viruses evolving from the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic circulation. To mitigate possible future infectious disease outbreaks in Africa and elsewhere, there is an urgent need for adequate global surveillance, prevention, and control measures that must include a focus on known and novel emerging zoonotic pathogens through a one health approach. Human immunization efforts should be approached equally through the transfer of cutting-edge technology for vaccine manufacturing throughout the world to ensure global public health and one health.

The role of the socio-economic context in the spread of the first wave of COVID-19 in the Marche Region (central Italy)

The first wave of COVID-19 arrived in Italy in February 2020 severely hitting the northern regions and delineating sharp differences across the country, from North to South. The Marche Region (central Italy) is a good example of such uneven distribution of contagion and casualties. This paper discusses the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 during the spring of 2020 in the five provinces of Marche and discusses it by means of descriptive and quantitative analysis of local socio-economic variables. Results show that the high impact of COVID-19 in Pesaro and Urbino, the northernmost province of Marche, might be reasonably attributable to higher mobility of local residents, especially northbound. Similarly, the larger contagion among the elderly in the center and norther provinces, is possibly due to a high number of hospices and seniors' residential facilities. Finally, the North-to-South diffusion of the virus can be explained by the Region's transportation infrastructures and urban layout along the coastal area.

Impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns on the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in South Korea

Introduction

Physical mobility is critical for the spread of infectious diseases in humans. However, few studies have conducted empirical investigations on the impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns on the diffusion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, this study examines its impact at the city-county level on the diffusion by the wave period during the two-year pandemic in South Korea.

Methods

This study first employs factor analysis by using the travel origin-destination data by travel mode at the county level as of 2019 to derive pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns. Next, the study identifies how they had affected the diffusion of COVID-19 over time by employing the negative binomial regression models on confirmed COVID-19 cases for each wave, including the entire pandemic period.

Results

The study derived five pre-pandemic mobility patterns: 1) rail-oriented mobility, 2) intra-county bus-oriented mobility, 3) road-oriented mobility, 4) high-speed rail-oriented mobility, and 5) inter-county bus-oriented mobility. Among them, the biggest risk to the diffusion of COVID-19 was the rail-oriented mobility before the pandemic if controlling such measures as accessibility, physical environment, and demographic and socioeconomic indicators. In addition, the order of the magnitudes for the impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility factors on its spatial diffusion had not changed during experiencing the three different wave periods during the two-year pandemic in South Korea.

Conclusions

The study concludes that the rail-oriented travel mobility pattern before the pandemic could pose the greatest threat factor to the spatial spread of COVID-19 at any scale and time. Policymakers should develop strategies to prevent the spatial spread of COVID-19 by reducing human mobility for daily living in areas with strong rail mobility patterns formed before the pandemic.

Spatial Syndromic Surveillance and COVID-19 in the U.S.: Local Cluster Mapping for Pandemic Preparedness

Maps have become the de facto primary mode of visualizing the COVID-19 pandemic, from identifying local disease and vaccination patterns to understanding global trends. In addition to their widespread utilization for public communication, there have been a variety of advances in spatial methods created for localized operational needs. While broader dissemination of this more granular work is not commonplace due to the protections under Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), its role has been foundational to pandemic response for health systems, hospitals, and government agencies. In contrast to the retrospective views provided by the aggregated geographies found in the public domain, or those often utilized for academic research, operational response requires near real-time mapping based on continuously flowing address level data. This paper describes the opportunities and challenges presented in emergent disease mapping using dynamic patient data in the response to COVID-19 for northeast Ohio for the period 2020 to 2022. More specifically it shows how a new clustering tool developed by geographers in the initial phases of the pandemic to handle operational mapping continues to evolve with shifting pandemic needs, including new variant surges, vaccine targeting, and most recently, testing data shortfalls. This paper also demonstrates how the geographic approach applied provides the framework needed for future pandemic preparedness.

Association Between Vaccination Coverage Disparity and the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Delta and Omicron Waves in the US

Objective

The US recently suffered the fourth and most severe wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. This wave was driven by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron, a highly transmissible variant that infected even vaccinated people. Vaccination coverage disparities have played an important role in shaping the epidemic dynamics. Analyzing the epidemiological impact of this uneven vaccination coverage is essential to understand local differences in the spread and outcomes of the Omicron wave. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify the impact of vaccination coverage disparity in the US in the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic during the third and fourth waves of the pandemic driven by the Delta and Omicron variants.

Methods

This cross-sectional study used COVID-19 cases, deaths, and vaccination coverage from 2,417 counties. The main outcomes of the study were new COVID-19 cases (incidence rate per 100,000 people) and new COVID-19 related deaths (mortality rate per 100,000 people) at county level and the main exposure variable was COVID-19 vaccination rate at county level. Geospatial and data visualization analyses were used to estimate the association between vaccination rate and COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates for the Delta and Omicron waves.

Results

During the Omicron wave, areas with high vaccination rates (>60%) experienced 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-1.7) times higher COVID-19 incidence rate compared to areas with low vaccination rates (<40%). However, mortality rate was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.7) higher in these low-vaccinated areas compared to areas with vaccination rates higher than 60%. As a result, areas with low vaccination rate had a 2.2 (95% CI 2.1-2.2) times higher case-fatality ratio. Geospatial clustering analysis showed a more defined spatial structure during the Delta wave with clusters with low vaccination rates and high incidence and mortality located in southern states.

Conclusions

Despite the emergence of new virus variants with differential transmission potential, the protective effect of vaccines keeps generating marked differences in the distribution of critical health outcomes, with low vaccinated areas having the largest COVID-19 related mortality during the Delta and Omicron waves in the US. Vulnerable communities residing in low vaccinated areas, which are mostly rural, are suffering the highest burden of the COVID-19 pandemic during the vaccination era.

Spatio-temporal Object-Oriented Bayesian Network modelling of the COVID-19 Italian outbreak data

The spatial epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy were modelled by means of an Object-Oriented Bayesian Network in order to explore the dependence relationships, in a static and a dynamic way, among the weekly incidence rate, the intensive care units occupancy rate and that of deaths. Following an autoregressive approach, both spatial and time components have been embedded in the model by means of spatial and time lagged variables. The model could be a valid instrument to support or validate policy makers' decisions strategies.

A spatial-temporal analysis at the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and its determinants: The case of Recife neighborhoods, Brazil

The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to there being a worldwide socio-economic crisis, with major impacts on developing countries. Understanding the dynamics of the disease and its driving factors, on a small spatial scale, might support strategies to control infections. This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 on neighborhoods of Recife, Brazil, for which we examine a set of drivers that combines socio-economic factors and the presence of non-stop services. A three-stage methodology was conducted by conducting a statistical and spatial analysis, including clusters and regression models. COVID-19 data were investigated concerning ten dates between April and July 2020. Hotspots of the most affected regions and their determinant effects were highlighted. We have identified that clusters of confirmed cases were carried from a well-developed neighborhood to socially deprived areas, along with the emergence of hotspots of the case-fatality rate. The influence of age-groups, income, level of education, and the access to essential services on the spread of COVID-19 was also verified. The recognition of variables that influence the spatial spread of the disease becomes vital for pinpointing the most vulnerable areas. Consequently, specific prevention actions can be developed for these places, especially in heterogeneous cities.

Transmission dynamics model and the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic: applications and challenges

Since late 2019, the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, transmission dynamics models have achieved great development and were widely used in predicting and policy making. Here, we provided an introduction to the history of disease transmission, summarized transmission dynamics models into three main types: compartment extension, parameter extension and population-stratified extension models, highlight the key contribution of transmission dynamics models in COVID-19 pandemic: estimating epidemiological parameters, predicting the future trend, evaluating the effectiveness of control measures and exploring different possibilities/scenarios. Finally, we pointed out the limitations and challenges lie ahead of transmission dynamics models.

Preparedness in a public health emergency: determinants of willingness and readiness to respond in the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

Healthcare professionals' high risk of infection and burnout in the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic probably hindered their much-needed preparedness to respond. We aimed to inform how individual and institutional factors contributed for the preparedness to respond during the first months of a public health emergency.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

We surveyed healthcare workers from a Local Health Unit in Portugal, which comprises primary health care centers and hospital services, including public health units and intensive care units, in the second and third months of the COVID-19 epidemic in Portugal. The 460 answers, completed by 252 participants (about 10% of the healthcare workers), were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regressions. We estimated adjusted odds ratios for the readiness and willingness to respond.

RESULTS

Readiness to respond was associated with the perception of adequate infrastructures (aOR = 4.04, P < 0.005), lack of access to personal protective equipment (aOR = 0.26, P < 0.05) and organization (aOR = 0.31, P < 0.05). The willingness to act was associated with the perception of not being able to make a difference (aOR = 0.05, P < 0.005), risk of work-related burnout (aOR = 21.21, P < 0.01) and experiencing colleagues or patients' deaths due to COVID-19 (aOR = 0.24, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Adequate organization, infrastructures, and access to personal protective equipment may be crucial for workers' preparedness in a new public health emergency, as well workers' understanding of their roles and expected impact. These factors, together with the risk of work-related burnout, shall be taken into account in the planning of the response of healthcare institutions in future public health emergencies.

Transmission of COVID-19 from community to healthcare agencies and back to community: a retrospective study of data from Wuhan, China

BACKGROUND

The early spatiotemporal transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. The community to healthcare agencies and back to community (CHC) model was tested in our study to simulate the early phase of COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan, China.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study. COVID-19 case series reported to the Municipal Notifiable Disease Report System of Wuhan from December 2019 to March 2020 from 17 communities were collected. Cases from healthcare workers (HW) and from community members (CM) were distinguished by documented occupations. Overall spatial and temporal relationships between HW and CM COVID-19 cases were visualised. The CHC model was then simulated. The turning point separating phase 1 and phase 2 was determined using a quadratic model. For phases 1 and 2, linear regression was used to quantify the relationship between HW and CM COVID-19 cases.

RESULTS

The spatial and temporal distributions of COVID-19 cases between HWs and CMs were closely correlated. The turning point was 36.85±18.37 (range 15-70). The linear model fitted well for phase 1 (mean R2=0.98) and phase 2 (mean R2=0.93). In phase 1, the estimated [Formula: see text]s were positive (from 18.03 to 94.99), with smaller [Formula: see text]s (from 2.98 to 15.14); in phase 2, the estimated [Formula: see text]s were negative (from -4.22 to -81.87), with larger [Formula: see text]s (from 5.37 to 78.12).

CONCLUSION

Transmission of COVID-19 from the community to healthcare agencies and back to the community was confirmed in Wuhan. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in hospitals and among HWs are crucial and warrant further attention.

Epidemiological and spatio-temporal characteristics of COVID-19 in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has taken millions of lives and disrupted living standards at individual, societal, and worldwide levels, causing serious consequences globally. Understanding its epidemic curve and spatio-temporal dynamics is crucial for the development of effective public health plans and responses and the allocation of resources. Thus, we conducted this study to assess the epidemiological dynamics and spatio-temporal patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda.

METHODS

Using the surveillance package in R software version 4.0.2, we implemented endemic-epidemic multivariate time series models for infectious diseases to analyze COVID-19 data reported by Rwanda Biomedical Center under the Ministry of Health from March 15, 2020 to January 15, 2021.

RESULTS

The COVID-19 pandemic occurred in two waves in Rwanda and showed a heterogenous spatial distribution across districts. The Rwandan government responded effectively and efficiently through the implementation of various health measures and intervention policies to drastically reduce the transmission of the disease. Analysis of the three components of the model showed that the most affected districts displayed epidemic components within the area, whereas the effect of epidemic components from spatial neighbors were experienced by the districts that surround the most affected districts. The infection followed the disease endemic trend in other districts.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiological and spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Rwanda show that the implementation of measures and interventions contributed significantly to the decrease in COVID-19 transmission within and between districts. This accentuates the critical call for continued intra- and inter- organization and community engagement nationwide to ensure effective and efficient response to the pandemic.

COVID-19 experience in Morocco: Modelling the agile capabilities of Moroccan Clinics

The COVID-19 pandemic posed multiple challenges to the healthcare sector. To be a leader under this crisis, healthcare organizations need to be agile in order to face the various challenges of the pandemic, as the treatment of COVID-19 patients, equipping hospitals with medical and protective equipment, strengthen epidemiological monitoring. Acknowledging the importance of this concept, many healthcare organizations have implemented agility on their health care system. In this context, this study uses total interpretive structural modeling (TISM) for two purposes. First, it models the agile capabilities of a Moroccan healthcare organization in a hierarchical form by differentiating between the driving capabilities and the dependent ones. Second, it interprets the interrelationship among them and ranks the capabilities based on their influence on agility. Through a literature review, different capabilities of organization agility have been identified followed by a questionnaire circulated among different healthcare professionals. Results indicate the most agile capabilities that bring agility in the healthcare organizations in order to address those challenges caused by the COVID-19 crisis.

The spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of COVID-19 among multiple regions: a modeling study in Chinese provinces

Current explosive outbreak of COVID-19 around the world is a complex spatiotemporal process with hidden interactions between viruses and humans. This study aims at clarifying the transmission patterns and the driving mechanism that contributed to the COVID-19 prevalence across the provinces of China. Thus, a new dynamical transmission model is established by an ordinary differential system. The model takes into account the hidden circulation of COVID-19 virus among/within humans, which incorporates the spatial diffusion of infection by parameterizing human mobility. Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction number is a unique epidemic threshold, which can unite infectivity in each region by human mobility and can totally determine whether COVID-19 proceeds among multiple regions. By validating the model with real epidemic data in China, it is found that (1) if without any intervention, COVID-19 would overrun China within three months, resulting in more than 1.1 billion clinical infections and 0.2 billion subclinical infections; (2) high frequency of human mobility can trigger COVID-19 diffusion across each province in China, no matter where the initial infection locates; (3) travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions must be implemented simultaneously for disease control; and (4) infection sites in central and east (rather than west and northeast) of China would easily stimulate quick diffusion of COVID-19 in the whole country.

Supplementary Information

The online version supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11071-021-07001-1.

Implementation of a Vaccination Program Based on Epidemic Geospatial Attributes: COVID-19 Pandemic in Ohio as a Case Study and Proof of Concept

Geospatial vaccine uptake is a critical factor in designing strategies that maximize the population-level impact of a vaccination program. This study uses an innovative spatiotemporal model to assess the impact of vaccination distribution strategies based on disease geospatial attributes and population-level risk assessment. For proof of concept, we adapted a spatially explicit COVID-19 model to investigate a hypothetical geospatial targeting of COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Ohio, United States, at the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic. The population-level deterministic compartmental model, incorporating spatial-geographic components at the county level, was formulated using a set of differential equations stratifying the population according to vaccination status and disease epidemiological characteristics. Three different hypothetical scenarios focusing on geographical subpopulation targeting (areas with high versus low infection intensity) were investigated. Our results suggest that a vaccine program that distributes vaccines equally across the entire state effectively averts infections and hospitalizations (2954 and 165 cases, respectively). However, in a context with equitable vaccine allocation, the number of COVID-19 cases in high infection intensity areas will remain high; the cumulative number of cases remained >30,000 cases. A vaccine program that initially targets high infection intensity areas has the most significant impact in reducing new COVID-19 cases and infection-related hospitalizations (3756 and 213 infections, respectively). Our approach demonstrates the importance of factoring geospatial attributes to the design and implementation of vaccination programs in a context with limited resources during the early stage of the vaccine rollout.

A Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 in African Countries: Evaluating the Effects of Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities and Neighbouring

The ongoing highly contagious coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which started in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, has now become a global public health problem. Using publicly available data from the COVID-19 data repository of Our World in Data, we aimed to investigate the influences of spatial socio-economic vulnerabilities and neighbourliness on the COVID-19 burden in African countries. We analyzed the first wave (January-September 2020) and second wave (October 2020 to May 2021) of the COVID-19 pandemic using spatial statistics regression models. As of 31 May 2021, there was a total of 4,748,948 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with an average, median, and range per country of 101,041, 26,963, and 2191 to 1,665,617, respectively. We found that COVID-19 prevalence in an Africa country was highly dependent on those of neighbouring Africa countries as well as its economic wealth, transparency, and proportion of the population aged 65 or older (p-value < 0.05). Our finding regarding the high COVID-19 burden in countries with better transparency and higher economic wealth is surprising and counterintuitive. We believe this is a reflection on the differences in COVID-19 testing capacity, which is mostly higher in more developed countries, or data modification by less transparent governments. Country-wide integrated COVID suppression strategies such as limiting human mobility from more urbanized to less urbanized countries, as well as an understanding of a county's social-economic characteristics, could prepare a country to promptly and effectively respond to future outbreaks of highly contagious viral infections such as COVID-19.

A review of GIS methodologies to analyze the dynamics of COVID-19 in the second half of 2020

COVID-19 has infected over 163 million people and has resulted in over 3.9 million deaths. Regarding the tools and strategies to research the ongoing pandemic, spatial analysis has been increasingly utilized to study the impacts of COVID-19. This article provides a review of 221 scientific articles that used spatial science to study the pandemic published from June 2020 to December 2020. The main objectives are: to identify the tools and techniques used by the authors; to review the subjects addressed and their disciplines; and to classify the studies based on their applications. This contribution will facilitate comparisons with the body of work published during the first half of 2020, revealing the evolution of the COVID-19 phenomenon through the lens of spatial analysis. Our results show that there was an increase in the use of both spatial statistical tools (e.g., geographically weighted regression, Bayesian models, spatial regression) applied to socioeconomic variables and analysis at finer spatial and temporal scales. We found an increase in remote sensing approaches, which are now widely applied in studies around the world. Lockdowns and associated changes in human mobility have been extensively examined using spatiotemporal techniques. Another dominant topic studied has been the relationship between pollution and COVID-19 dynamics, which enhance the impact of human activities on the pandemic's evolution. This represents a shift from the first half of 2020, when the research focused on climatic and weather factors. Overall, we have seen a vast increase in spatial tools and techniques to study COVID-19 transmission and the associated risk factors.

Measuring of the COVID-19 Based on Time-Geography

At the end of 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic began to emerge on a global scale, including China, and left deep traces on all societies. The spread of this virus shows remarkable temporal and spatial characteristics. Therefore, analyzing and visualizing the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic are relevant to the current pressing need and have realistic significance. In this article, we constructed a new model based on time-geography to analyze the movement pattern of COVID-19 in Hebei Province. The results show that as time changed COVID-19 presented an obvious dynamic distribution in space. It gradually migrated from the southwest region of Hebei Province to the northeast region. The factors affecting the moving patterns may be the migration and flow of population between and within the province, the economic development level and the development of road traffic of each city. It can be divided into three stages in terms of time. The first stage is the gradual spread of the epidemic, the second is the full spread of the epidemic, and the third is the time and again of the epidemic. Finally, we can verify the accuracy of the model through the standard deviation ellipse and location entropy.

A spatial and dynamic solution for allocation of COVID-19 vaccines when supply is limited

Background

Since most of the global population needs to be vaccinated to reduce COVID-19 transmission and mortality, a shortage of COVID-19 vaccine supply is inevitable. We propose a spatial and dynamic vaccine allocation solution to assist in the allocation of limited vaccines to people who need them most.

Methods

We developed a weighted kernel density estimation (WKDE) model to predict daily COVID-19 symptom onset risk in 291 Tertiary Planning Units in Hong Kong from 18 January 2020 to 22 December 2020. Data of 5,409 COVID-19 onset cases were used. We then obtained spatial distributions of accumulated onset risk under three epidemic scenarios, and computed the vaccine demands to form the vaccine allocation plan. We also compared the vaccine demand under different real-time effective reproductive number (R_t) levels.

Results

The estimated vaccine usages in three epidemiologic scenarios are 30.86% - 45.78% of the Hong Kong population, which is within the total vaccine availability limit. In the sporadic cases or clusters of onset cases scenario, when 6.26% of the total population with travel history to high-risk areas can be vaccinated, the COVID-19 transmission between higher- and lower-risk areas can be reduced. Furthermore, if the current R_t is increased to double, the vaccine usages needed will be increased by more than 7%.

Conclusions

The proposed solution can be used to dynamically allocate limited vaccines in different epidemic scenarios, thereby enabling more effective protection. The increased vaccine usages associated with increased R_t indicates the necessity to maintain appropriate control measures even with vaccines available.

The supply of COVID-19 vaccines is limited in many parts of the world, particularly in low-income countries. To assist in the allocation of limited vaccines, a spatial and dynamic solution was proposed, based on a new model to predict risk of COVID-19 onset in urban communities. A case study in Hong Kong indicated that the estimated vaccine usage (30.86–45.78%) under three epidemiologic scenarios was within the total vaccine availability limit. Vaccine usage would need to be increased by more than 7% if the current rate of viral spread was doubled. The proposed solution has the potential to help countries to allocate limited vaccines spatially and dynamically in different epidemic scenarios, thereby enabling more effective protection.

Shi et al. propose a weighted kernel density estimation model to estimate COVID-19 risk across communities in Hong Kong. The authors use this data to evaluate potential COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategies in different epidemic scenarios.

Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in urban and rural areas in the United States

PURPOSE

There is a growing concern about the COVID-19 epidemic intensifying in rural areas in the United States (U.S.). In this study, we described the dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths in rural and urban counties in the U.S.

METHODS

Using data from April 1 to November 12, 2020, from Johns Hopkins University, we estimated COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates and conducted comparisons between urban and rural areas in three time periods at the national level, and in states with higher and lower COVID-19 incidence rates.

RESULTS

Results at the national level showed greater COVID-19 incidence rates in urban compared to rural counties in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the U.S. at the beginning of the epidemic. However, the intensity of the epidemic has shifted to a rapid surge in rural areas. In particular, high incidence states located in the Mid-west of the country had more than 3,400 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people compared to 1,284 cases per 100,000 people in urban counties nationwide during the third period (August 30 to November 12).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the current epicenter of the epidemic is located in states with higher infection rates and mortality in rural areas. Infection prevention and control efforts including healthcare capacity should be scaled up in these vulnerable rural areas.

A spatial interpretation of Australia's COVID-vulnerability

The school of social vulnerability in disaster sciences offers an alternative perspective on the current COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic crisis. Social vulnerability in general can be understood as a risk of exposure to hazard impacts, where vulnerability is embedded in the normal functioning of the society. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed systemic (political and health care systems), demographic (aging, race) and,based on the results of our approach, spatial (spatial isolation and connectivity) yvulnerabilities as well. In this paper, we develop a risk prediction model based on two composite indicators of social vulnerability. These indicators reflect the two main contrasting risks associated with COVID-19, demographic vulnerability and, as consequences of the lockdowns, economic vulnerability. We conceptualise social vulnerability in the context of the extremely uneven spatial population distribution in Australia. Our approach helps extend understanding about the role of spatiality in the current pandemic disaster.

Exploring the impacts of travel-implied policy factors on COVID-19 spread within communities based on multi-source data interpretations

The global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to the implementation of social distancing measures such as work-from-home orders that have drastically changed people's travel-related behavior. As countries are easing up these measures and people are resuming their pre-pandemic activities, the second wave of COVID-19 is observed in many countries. This study proposes a Community Activity Score (CAS) based on inter-community traffic characteristics (in and out of community traffic volume and travel distance) to capture the current travel-related activity level compared to the pre-pandemic baseline and study its relationship with confirmed COVID-19 cases. Fourteen other travel-related factors belonging to five categories (Social Distancing Index, residents staying at home, travel frequency and distance, mobility trend, and out-of-county visitors) and three social distancing measures (stay-at-home order, face-covering order, and self-quarantine for out-of-county travels) are also considered to reflect the likelihood of exposure to the COVID-19. Considering that it usually takes days from exposure to confirming the infection, the exposure-to-confirm temporal delay between the time-varying travel-related factors and their impacts on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is considered in this study. Honolulu County in the State of Hawaii is used as a case study to evaluate the proposed CAS and other factors on confirmed COVID-19 cases with various temporal delays at a county-level. Negative Binomial models were chosen to study the impacts of travel-related factors and social distancing measures on COVID-19 cases. The case study results show that CAS and other factors are correlated with COVID-19 spread, and models that factor in the exposure-to-confirm temporal delay perform better in forecasting COVID-19 cases later. Policymakers can use the study's various findings and insights to evaluate the impacts of social distancing policies on travel and effectively allocate resources for the possible increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Non-standard bioinformatics characterization of SARS-CoV-2

A non-standard bioinformatics method, 4D-Dynamic Representation of DNA/RNA Sequences, aiming at an analysis of the information available in nucleotide databases, has been formulated. The sequences are represented by sets of "material points" in a 4D space - 4D-dynamic graphs. The graphs representing the sequences are treated as "rigid bodies" and characterized by values analogous to the ones used in the classical dynamics. As the graphical representations of the sequences, the projections of the graphs into 2D and 3D spaces are used. The method has been applied to an analysis of the complete genome sequences of the 2019 novel coronavirus. As a result, 2D and 3D classification maps are obtained. The coordinate axes in the maps correspond to the values derived from the exact formulas characterizing the graphs: the coordinates of the centers of mass and the 4D moments of inertia. The points in the maps represent sequences and their coordinates are used as the classifiers. The main result of this work has been derived from the 3D classification maps. The distribution of clusters of points which emerged in these maps, supports the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 may have originated in bat and in pangolin. Pilot calculations for Zika virus sequence data prove that the proposed approach is also applicable to a description of time evolution of genome sequences of viruses.

Geospatial Analysis of COVID-19: A Scoping Review

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China in late December 2019 became the harbinger of the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, geospatial techniques, such as modeling and mapping, have helped in disease pattern detection. Here we provide a synthesis of the techniques and associated findings in relation to COVID-19 and its geographic, environmental, and socio-demographic characteristics, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) methodology for scoping reviews. We searched PubMed for relevant articles and discussed the results separately for three categories: disease mapping, exposure mapping, and spatial epidemiological modeling. The majority of studies were ecological in nature and primarily carried out in China, Brazil, and the USA. The most common spatial methods used were clustering, hotspot analysis, space-time scan statistic, and regression modeling. Researchers used a wide range of spatial and statistical software to apply spatial analysis for the purpose of disease mapping, exposure mapping, and epidemiological modeling. Factors limiting the use of these spatial techniques were the unavailability and bias of COVID-19 data-along with scarcity of fine-scaled demographic, environmental, and socio-economic data-which restrained most of the researchers from exploring causal relationships of potential influencing factors of COVID-19. Our review identified geospatial analysis in COVID-19 research and highlighted current trends and research gaps. Since most of the studies found centered on Asia and the Americas, there is a need for more comparable spatial studies using geographically fine-scaled data in other areas of the world.

Public Perception of the First Major SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak in the Suceava County, Romania

The first months of 2020 were marked by the rapid spread of the acute respiratory disease, which swiftly reached the proportions of a pandemic. The city and county of Suceava, Romania, faced an unprecedented crisis in March and April 2020, triggered not only by the highest number of infections nationwide but also by the highest number of infected health professionals (47.1% of the infected medical staff nationwide, in April 2020). Why did Suceava reach the peak number of COVID-19 cases in Romania? What were the vulnerability factors that led to the outbreak, the closure of the city of Suceava and neighboring localities, and the impossibility of managing the crisis with local resources? What is the relationship between the population's lack of confidence in the authorities' ability to solve the crisis, and their attitude towards the imposed measures? The present article aims to provide answers to the above questions by examining the attitudes of the public towards the causes that have led to the outbreak of an epidemiological crisis, systemic health problems, and the capacity of decision makers to intervene both at local and national level. The research is based on an online survey, conducted between April and May 2020, resulting in a sample of 1231 people from Suceava County. The results highlight that the development of the largest COVID-19 outbreak in Romania is, without a doubt, the result of a combination of factors, related to the medical field, decision makers, and the particularities of the population's behavior.

Geographic monitoring for early disease detection (GeoMEDD)

Identifying emergent patterns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the local level presents a geographic challenge. The need is not only to integrate multiple data streams from different sources, scales, and cadences, but to also identify meaningful spatial patterns in these data, especially in vulnerable settings where even small numbers and low rates are important to pinpoint for early intervention. This paper identifies a gap in current analytical approaches and presents a near-real time assessment of emergent disease that can be used to guide a local intervention strategy: Geographic Monitoring for Early Disease Detection (GeoMEDD). Through integration of a spatial database and two types of clustering algorithms, GeoMEDD uses incoming test data to provide multiple spatial and temporal perspectives on an ever changing disease landscape by connecting cases using different spatial and temporal thresholds. GeoMEDD has proven effective in revealing these different types of clusters, as well as the influencers and accelerators that give insight as to why a cluster exists where it does, and why it evolves, leading to the saving of lives through more timely and geographically targeted intervention.

First year with COVID-19: Assessment and prospects

The vision of health for all by Dr. Halfdan Mahler, Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) 1973 to 1988, guided public health approaches towards improving life for all those mired in poverty and disease. Research on the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) of the world's poor was advancing strongly when the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) struck. Although work on the NTDs did not grind to a halt, the situation is reminiscent of the author Stefan Zweig's passionate account of culture destruction in his book The World of Yesterday from 1941, which gives an insight as to how the war ended traditional life. His thoughts parallel the present situation; however, this time societies are not torn apart by war but instead isolated by a pandemic. It comes upon today's scientists to move fast to make COVID-19 less devastating than the Spanish flu of 1918-1920 that killed more than 3% of the world population...