Ranking the importance of demographic, socioeconomic, and underlying health factors on US COVID-19 deaths: A geographical random forest approach

Examining the importance of neighborhood natural, and built environment factors in predicting older adults' mental well-being: An XGBoost-SHAP approach

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown that urban neighborhood environmental factors significantly influence the health outcomes of urban older adults. However, most cross-sectional studies exploring the health effects of these factors have failed to quantify the relative importance of each factor.

METHODS

We use XGBoost machine learning techniques and SHAPley Additive Interpretation (SHAP) to rank the importance of urban neighborhood environmental factors in shaping the mental health of urban older adults. To address self-selection bias in housing choice, we distinguish older adults living in private housing from those living in public as residents in private housing have more freedom to choose where to live.

RESULTS

The results show that both natural and built environmental factors in urban neighborhoods are important predictors of mental well-being scores. Five natural environmental factors (blue space, perceived greenery quantity, NDVI, street view greenness, aesthetic quality) and three built environmental factors (physical activity facilities quality, physical activity facilities quantity, neighborhood disorder) had considerable predictive power for mental well-being scores in two groups. Among them, blue space, perceived greenery quantity and street view greenness quantity became less important after controlling for self-selection bias, possibly because of the unequal distribution of quantity and quality, and the performance of neighborhood disorder, aesthetic quality and physical activity facilities quality was more sensitive in public housing.

CONCLUSIONS

These results highlight the nuanced and differential effects of neighborhood environmental exposures on mental well-being outcomes, depending on housing preferences. The results of this study can provide support for decision makers in urban planning, landscape design and environmental management in order to improve the mental well-being status of urban older adults.

Research on CO2-WAG in Thick Reservoirs: Geological Influencing Factors and Random Forest Importance Evaluation

In the development process of thick reservoirs, the impact of various geological factors on the effectiveness of the CO2 water alternating gas (CO2-WAG) flooding technology remains unclear. This paper establishes multiple CO2-WAG flooding models for thick reservoirs to study the effects of sedimentary rhythm, dip angle, matrix permeability, high-permeability streaks (HPS), and barrier layers on the effectiveness of CO2-WAG flooding and then uses the random forest algorithm to rank the importance of these geological factors. The results show that different geological factors have varying degrees of impact on the distribution of water and gas migration and recovery rates during the CO2-WAG flooding process. The ranking of the importance of various factors obtained by reservoir numerical simulations and the random forest algorithm is HPS, sedimentary rhythm, dip angle, matrix permeability, and barrier layers. These research findings will provide effective guidance and a reference for the optimal selection of CO2-WAG flooding schemes for similar thick reservoirs under different geological conditions.

Analysis of Health-Related Quality of Life in Elderly Patients with Stroke Complicated by Hypertension in China Using the EQ-5D-3L Scale

Purpose

To evaluate the health-related quality of life(HRQoL)status of elderly patients with hypertensive stroke, to understand the factors influencing it, and to provide a basis for the development of health intervention policies.

Patients and Methods

This study used the EQ-5D-3L scale to assess the HRQoL among elderly patients who experienced a stroke related to high blood pressure. Various analytical methods were employed to examine the factors that influenced the patient's quality of life. Univariate analysis, Tobit regression, random forest, and XGBoost models were applied to analyze the HRQoL of the patients. Furthermore, to interpret the machine learning results, the SHAP method was utilized. This method involved assessing the importance of each feature, examining the effect of each feature on the prediction result of a single sample, and determining the impact of individual features on the overall prediction.

Results

The study found that the median health utility value for elderly patients with hypertensive stroke was 0.427, with an interquartile range of 0.186 to 0.745. The results of the Tobit regression model, Random Forest, and XGBoost model were compared. The results of the model evaluation show that the performance of the machine learning model and the Tobit regression model are not very different. The XGBoost model performs slightly better relative to the random forest model. The factors that strongly influenced the health utility value of patients included BMI, social activities, smoking, education level, alcohol consumption, urban/rural residence, annual income, physical activity level, and hours of sleep at night.

Conclusion

Health-related quality of life in hypertensive stroke patients is influenced by a variety of factors. Health-related quality of life can be positively influenced by modifying these factors and making lifestyle adjustments. Maintaining a healthy weight, being socially active, quitting smoking, improving living conditions, increasing physical activity levels and getting enough sleep are recommended. Lifestyle changes need to be developed for each individual on a case-by-case basis and by medical advice.

Tailoring Household Disaster Preparedness Interventions to Reduce Health Disparities: Nursing Implications from Machine Learning Importance Features from the 2018-2020 FEMA National Household Survey

Tailored disaster preparedness interventions may be more effective and equitable, yet little is known about specific factors associated with disaster household preparedness for older adults and/or those with African American/Black identities. This study aims to ascertain differences in the importance features of machine learning models of household disaster preparedness for four groups to inform culturally tailored intervention recommendations for nursing practice. A machine learning model was developed and tested by combining data from the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Federal Emergency Management Agency National Household Survey. The primary outcome variable was a composite readiness score. A total of 252 variables from 15,048 participants were included. Over 10% of the sample self-identified as African American/Black and 30.3% reported being 65 years of age or older. Importance features varied regarding financial and insurance preparedness, information seeking and transportation between groups. These results reiterate the need for targeted interventions to support financial resilience and equitable resource access. Notably, older adults with Black racial identities were the only group where TV, TV news, and the Weather Channel was a priority feature for household disaster preparedness. Additionally, reliance on public transportation was most important among older adults with Black racial identities, highlighting priority needs for equity in disaster preparedness and policy.

The impact of urban spatial environment on COVID-19: a case study in Beijing

Epidemics are dangerous and difficult to prevent and control, especially in urban areas. Clarifying the correlation between the COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency and the urban spatial environment may help improve cities' ability to respond to such public health emergencies. In this study, we firstly analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency by correlating the geographic locations of COVID-19 epidemic-affected neighborhoods in the city of Beijing with the time point of onset. Secondly, we created a geographically weighted regression model combining the COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency with the external spatial environmental elements of the city. Thirdly, different grades of epidemic-affected neighborhoods in the study area were classified according to the clustering analysis results. Finally, the correlation between the COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency and the internal spatial environmental elements of different grades of neighborhoods was investigated using a binomial logistic regression model. The study yielded the following results. (i) Epidemic outbreak frequency was evidently correlated with the urban external spatial environment, among building density, volume ratio, density of commercial facilities, density of service facilities, and density of transportation facilities were positively correlated with COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency, while water and greenery coverage was negatively correlated with it. (ii) The correlation between COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency and the internal spatial environmental elements of neighborhoods of different grades differed. House price and the number of households were positively correlated with the COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency in low-end neighborhoods, while the number of households was positively correlated with the COVID-19 Outbreak Frequency in mid-end neighborhoods. In order to achieve spatial justice, society should strive to address the inequality phenomena of income gaps and residential differentiation, and promote fair distribution of spatial environments.

Geographically weighted random forests for macro-level crash frequency prediction

Machine learning models such as random forests (RF) have been widely applied in the field of road safety. RF is a prominent algorithm, overcoming the limitations of using a single decision tree such as overfitting and instability. However, the traditional RF is a global concept, and thus may fail to capture spatial variability. In macro-level analysis of road safety, the relationship between crash frequency and risk factors can vary spatially. To address this issue, we employ a modified RF algorithm, named geographically weighted random forest (GWRF). Based on the data from London at the level of Middle-super-output-area (MSOA), the predictive performances of RF and GWRF are compared using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Moreover, considering MSOAs are geographically connected with each other, several factors related to the discrepancies between adjacent zones are also included in the models. Our results indicate that GWRF outperforms the traditional RF and GWR when an appropriate bandwidth is selected. We further explore the effects of multicollinearity on model performance. The results show that prediction accuracy of GWRF models are not susceptible to the multicollinearity. However, the importance values of those variables with multicollinearity may reduce. Finally, and of equal importance, it is found that the importance of each explanatory variable varies across zones. The density of minor road makes the highest contribution to crash frequency in downtown area, while the crash frequency in peripheral area is more sensitive to the discrepancy of road environment between MSOAs. With such information, road safety interventions can be designed and implemented according to the locally important factors, avoiding thus general guidelines addressed for the entire city.

What influence farmers' relative poverty in China: A global analysis based on statistical and interpretable machine learning methods

Poverty eradication has always been a major challenge to global development and governance, which received widespread attention from each country. With the completion poverty alleviation task in 2020, relative poverty governance becomes an important issue to be solved in China urgently. Because of a large population, poor infrastructures, insufficient resources, and long-term uneven development raising the living standard of farmers in rural areas is critical to China's success in realizing moderate prosperity. Therefore, identifying the poor farmers, exploring the influence factors to relative poverty, and clarifying its effect mechanism in rural areas are significant for the subsequent poverty governance. Most of the previous studies adopted the method of apriori assuming the factor system and verifying the hypothesis. We innovatively constructed a relative poverty index system consistent with China's actual conditions, selecting all the possible variables that could affect relative poverty based on the existing literature, including individual characteristics, psychological endowment, and geographical environment, and rebuilt an experimental database. Then, through data processing and data analysis, the main factors influencing the relative poverty of farmers were systematically sorted out based on the machine learning method. Finally, 25 chosen influencing factors were discussed in detail. Research findings show that: 1) Machine learning algorithm is proved it could be well applied in relative poverty fields, especially XGBoost, which achieves 81.9% accuracy and the score of ROC_AUC reaches 0.819. 2) This study sheds light on many new research directions in applying machine learning for relative poverty research, besides, the paper offers an integral framework and beneficial reference for target identification using machine learning algorithms. 3) In addition, by utilizing the interpretable tools, the "black-box" of ML become transparent through PDP and SHAP explanation, it also reveals that machine learning models can readily handle the non-linear association relationship.

Associations between rurality and regional differences in sociodemographic factors and the 1918-20 influenza and 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemics in Missouri counties: An ecological study

This study compares pandemic experiences of Missouri's 115 counties based on rurality and sociodemographic characteristics during the 1918-20 influenza and 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemics. The state's counties and overall population distribution have remained relatively stable over the last century, which enables identification of long-lasting pandemic attributes. Sociodemographic data available at the county level for both time periods were taken from U.S. census data and used to create clusters of similar counties. Counties were also grouped by rural status (RSU), including fully (100%) rural, semirural (1-49% living in urban areas), and urban (>50% of the population living in urban areas). Deaths from 1918 through 1920 were collated from the Missouri Digital Heritage database and COVID-19 cases and deaths were downloaded from the Missouri COVID-19 dashboard. Results from sociodemographic analyses indicate that, during both time periods, average farm value, proportion White, and literacy were the most important determinants of sociodemographic clusters. Furthermore, the Urban/Central and Southeastern regions experienced higher mortality during both pandemics than did the North and South. Analyses comparing county groups by rurality indicated that throughout the 1918-20 influenza pandemic, urban counties had the highest and rural had the lowest mortality rates. Early in the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic, urban counties saw the most extensive epidemic spread and highest mortality, but as the epidemic progressed, cumulative mortality became highest in semirural counties. Additional results highlight the greater effects both pandemics had on county groups with lower rates of education and a lower proportion of Whites in the population. This was especially true for the far southeastern counties of Missouri ("the Bootheel") during the COVID-19 pandemic. These results indicate that rural-urban and socioeconomic differences in health outcomes are long-standing problems that continue to be of significant importance, even though the overall quality of health care is substantially better in the 21st century.

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of asthma prevalence: a cross-sectional study at the U.S. County level using geographically weighted random forests

BACKGROUND

Some studies have established associations between the prevalence of new-onset asthma and asthma exacerbation and socioeconomic and environmental determinants. However, research remains limited concerning the shape of these associations, the importance of the risk factors, and how these factors vary geographically.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed (1) to examine ecological associations between asthma prevalence and multiple socio-physical determinants in the United States; and (2) to assess geographic variations in their relative importance.

METHODS

Our study design is cross sectional based on county-level data for 2020 across the United States. We obtained self-reported asthma prevalence data of adults aged 18 years or older for each county. We applied conventional and geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to investigate the associations between asthma prevalence and socioeconomic (e.g., poverty) and environmental determinants (e.g., air pollution and green space). To enhance the interpretability of the GWRF, we (1) assessed the shape of the associations through partial dependence plots, (2) ranked the determinants according to their global importance scores, and (3) mapped the local variable importance spatially.

RESULTS

Of the 3059 counties, the average asthma prevalence was 9.9 (standard deviation ± 0.99). The GWRF outperformed the conventional random forest. We found an indication, for example, that temperature was inversely associated with asthma prevalence, while poverty showed positive associations. The partial dependence plots showed that these associations had a non-linear shape. Ranking the socio-physical environmental factors concerning their global importance showed that smoking prevalence and depression prevalence were most relevant, while green space and limited language were of minor relevance. The local variable importance measures showed striking geographical differences.

CONCLUSION

Our findings strengthen the evidence that socio-physical environments play a role in explaining asthma prevalence, but their relevance seems to vary geographically. The results are vital for implementing future asthma prevention programs that should be tailor-made for specific areas.

Spatial machine learning for predicting physical inactivity prevalence from socioecological determinants in Chicago, Illinois, USA

The increase in physical inactivity prevalence in the USA has been associated with neighborhood characteristics. While several studies have found an association between neighborhood and health, the relative importance of each component related to physical inactivity or how this value varies geographically (i.e., across different neighborhoods) remains unexplored. This study ranks the contribution of seven socioecological neighborhood factors to physical inactivity prevalence in Chicago, Illinois, using machine learning models at the census tract level, and evaluates their predictive capabilities. First, we use geographical random forest (GRF), a recently proposed nonlinear machine learning regression method that assesses each predictive factor's spatial variation and contribution to physical inactivity prevalence. Then, we compare the predictive performance of GRF to geographically weighted artificial neural networks, another recently proposed spatial machine learning algorithm. Our results suggest that poverty is the most important determinant in the Chicago tracts, while on the other hand, green space is the least important determinant in the rise of physical inactivity prevalence. As a result, interventions can be designed and implemented based on specific local circumstances rather than broad concepts that apply to Chicago and other large cities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10109-023-00415-y.

Understanding the spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between malaria incidence and environmental risk factors using Geographically Weighted Random Forest: A case study in Rwanda

As found in the health studies literature, the levels of climate association between epidemiological diseases have been found to vary across regions. Therefore, it seems reasonable to allow for the possibility that relationships might vary spatially within regions. We implemented the geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) machine learning method to analyze ecological disease patterns caused by spatially non-stationary processes using a malaria incidence dataset for Rwanda. We first compared the geographically weighted regression (WGR), the global random forest (GRF), and the geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to examine the spatial non-stationarity in the non-linear relationships between malaria incidence and their risk factors. We used the Gaussian areal kriging model to disaggregate the malaria incidence at the local administrative cell level to understand the relationships at a fine scale since the model goodness of fit was not satisfactory to explain malaria incidence due to the limited number of sample values. Our results show that in terms of the coefficients of determination and prediction accuracy, the geographical random forest model performs better than the GWR and the global random forest model. The coefficients of determination of the geographically weighted regression (R2), the global RF (R2), and the GWRF (R2) were 4.74, 0.76, and 0.79, respectively. The GWRF algorithm achieves the best result and reveals that risk factors (rainfall, land surface temperature, elevation, and air temperature) have a strong non-linear relationship with the spatial distribution of malaria incidence rates, which could have implications for supporting local initiatives for malaria elimination in Rwanda.

Cross-regional analysis of the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infection in Southeast Asia during the transitional period of “living with COVID-19”

Background

In response to COVID-19, Southeast Asian (SEA) countries had imposed stringent lockdowns and restrictions to mitigate the pandemic ever since 2019. Because of a gradually boosting vaccination rate along with a strong demand for economic recovery, many governments have shifted the intervention strategy from restrictions to “Living with COVID-19” where people gradually resumed their normal activities since the second half of the year 2021. Noticeably, timelines for enacting the loosened strategy varied across Southeast Asian countries, which resulted in different patterns of human mobility across space and time. This thus presents an opportunity to study the relationship between mobility and the number of infection cases across regions, which could provide support for ongoing interventions in terms of effectiveness.

Objective

This study aimed to investigate the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections across space and time during the transition period of shifting strategies from restrictions to normal living in Southeast Asia. Our research results have significant implications for evidence-based policymaking at the present of the COVID-19 pandemic and other public health issues.

Methods

We aggregated weekly average human mobility data derived from the Facebook origin and destination Movement dataset. and weekly average new cases of COVID-19 at the district level from 01-Jun-2021 to 26-Dec-2021 (a total of 30 weeks). We mapped the spatiotemporal dynamics of human mobility and COVID-19 cases across countries in SEA. We further adopted the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model to identify the spatiotemporal variations of the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections over 30 weeks. Our model also controls for socioeconomic status, vaccination, and stringency of intervention to better identify the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 spread.

Results

The percentage of districts that presented a statistically significant association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections generally decreased from 96.15% in week 1 to 90.38% in week 30, indicating a gradual disconnection between human mobility and COVID-19 spread. Over the study period, the average coefficients in 7 SEA countries increased, decreased, and finally kept stable. The association between human mobility and COVID-19 spread also presents spatial heterogeneity where higher coefficients were mainly concentrated in districts of Indonesia from week 1 to week 10 (ranging from 0.336 to 0.826), while lower coefficients were mainly located in districts of Vietnam (ranging from 0.044 to 0.130). From week 10 to week 25, higher coefficients were mainly observed in Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, north Indonesia, and several districts of the Philippines. Despite the association showing a general weakening trend over time, significant positive coefficients were observed in Singapore, Malaysia, western Indonesia, and the Philippines, with the relatively highest coefficients observed in the Philippines in week 30 (ranging from 0.101 to 0.139).

Conclusions

The loosening interventions in response to COVID-19 in SEA countries during the second half of 2021 led to diverse changes in human mobility over time, which may result in the COVID-19 infection dynamics. This study investigated the association between mobility and infections at the regional level during the special transitional period. Our study has important implications for public policy interventions, especially at the later stage of a public health crisis.

A counterfactual analysis of opioid-involved deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic using a spatiotemporal random forest modeling approach

The global pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) has been linked to adversely impacting individuals with opioid use disorder in the United States. This study focuses on analyzing opioid-involved mortality in the context of COVID-19 in the U.S. from a geospatial perspective. We investigated spatiotemporal patterns of opioid-involved deaths during 2020 and compared the spatiotemporal pattern of these deaths with patterns for the previous three years (2017-2019) to understand changes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. A counterfactual analysis framework together with a space-time random forest (STRF) model were used to estimate the increase in opioid-involved deaths related to the pandemic. To gain further insight into the relationship between opioid deaths and COVID-19-related factors, we built a space-time random forest model for the City of Chicago, that experienced a steep increase in opioid-related deaths during 2020. High ranking indicators identified by the model such as the number of positive COVID-19 cases adjusted by population and the change in stay-at-home dwell time during the pandemic were used to generate a vulnerability index for opioid overdoses during the COVID-19 pandemic in Chicago.

Prediction of risk factors for first trimester pregnancy loss in frozen-thawed good-quality embryo transfer cycles using machine learning algorithms

PURPOSE

Can the risk factors that cause first trimester pregnancy loss in good-quality frozen-thawed embryo transfer (FET) cycles be predicted using machine learning algorithms?

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study conducted at Sisli Memorial Hospital, ART and Reproductive Genetics Center, between January 2011 and May 2021. A total of 3805 good-quality FET cycles were included in the study. First trimester pregnancy loss rates were evaluated according to female age, paternal age, body mass index (BMI), diagnosis of infertility, endometrial preparation protocols (natural/artificial), embryo quality (top/good), presence of polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS), history of recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL), recurrent implantation failure (RIF), severe male infertility, adenomyosis and endometriosis.

RESULTS

The first trimester pregnancy loss rate was 18.2% (693/ 3805). The presence of RPL increased first trimester pregnancy loss (OR = 7.729, 95%CI = 5.908-10.142, P = 0.000). BMI, which is > 30, increased first trimester pregnancy loss compared to < 25 (OR = 1.418, 95%CI = 1.025-1.950, P = 0.033). Endometrial preparation with artificial cycle increased first trimester pregnancy loss compared to natural cycle (OR = 2.101, 95%CI = 1.630-2.723, P = 0.000). Female age, which is 35-37, increased first trimester pregnancy loss compared to < 30 (OR = 1.617, 95%CI = 1.120-2.316, P = 0.018), and female age, which is > 37, increased first trimester pregnancy loss compared to < 30 (OR = 2.286, 95%CI = 1.146-4,38, P = 0.016). The presence of PCOS increased first trimester pregnancy loss (OR = 1.693, 95%CI = 1.198-2.390, P = 0.002). The number of previous IVF cycles, which is > 3, increased first trimester pregnancy loss compared to < 3 (OR = 2.182, 95%CI = 1.708-2.790, P = 0.000).

CONCLUSIONS

History of RPL, RIF, advanced female age, presence of PCOS, and high BMI (> 30 kg/m2) were the factors that increased first trimester pregnancy loss.

The prevalence of anxiety and its key influencing factors among the elderly in China

INTRODUCTION

With the rapid aging population, the mental health of older adults is paid more and more attention. Anxiety is a common mental health illness in older adults. Therefore, the study aimed to explore the current situation of anxiety and its factors among the elderly in China.

METHODS

Based on the data from 2018 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), a total of 10,982 respondents aged 60 and above were selected. Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) scale was used to assess the anxiety. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to analyze the influencing factors of anxiety. Random forest was established to rank the importance of each influencing factors.

RESULTS

The results showed that the prevalence of anxiety among the elderly was 11.24%. Anxiety was mainly associated with 14 factors from five aspects: sociodemographic characteristics, health status, psychological state, social trust and social participation, among which loneliness related to psychological status was the most important factor.

DISCUSSION

The revelation of this study is that the present situation of anxiety among the elderly cannot be ignored, and it is necessary to take measures to prevent and control it from many aspects.

Machine learning identifies prominent factors associated with cardiovascular disease: findings from two million adults in the Kashgar Prospective Cohort Study (KPCS)

BACKGROUND

Identifying factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) is critical for its prevention, but this topic is scarcely investigated in Kashgar prefecture, Xinjiang, northwestern China. We thus explored the CVD epidemiology and identified prominent factors associated with CVD in this region.

METHODS

A total of 1,887,710 adults at baseline (in 2017) of the Kashgar Prospective Cohort Study were included in the analysis. Sixteen candidate factors, including seven demographic factors, 4 lifestyle factors, and 5 clinical factors, were collected from a questionnaire and health examination records. CVD was defined according to International Clinical Diagnosis (ICD-10) codes. We first used logistic regression models to investigate the association between each of the candidate factors and CVD. Then, we employed 3 machine learning methods-Random Forest, Random Ferns, and Extreme Gradient Boosting-to rank and identify prominent factors associated with CVD. Stratification analyses by sex, ethnicity, education level, economic status, and residential setting were also performed to test the consistency of the ranking.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CVD in Kashgar prefecture was 8.1%. All the 16 candidate factors were confirmed to be significantly associated with CVD (odds ratios ranged from 1.03 to 2.99, all p values < 0.05) in logistic regression models. Further machine learning-based analysis suggested that age, occupation, hypertension, exercise frequency, and dietary pattern were the five most prominent factors associated with CVD. The ranking of relative importance for prominent factors in stratification analyses showed that the factor importance generally followed the same pattern as that in the overall sample.

CONCLUSIONS

CVD is a major public health concern in Kashgar prefecture. Age, occupation, hypertension, exercise frequency, and dietary pattern might be the prominent factors associated with CVD in this region.In the future, these factors should be given priority in preventing CVD in future.

Longitudinal Study of Therapeutic Adherence in a Cystic Fibrosis Unit: Identifying Potential Factors Associated with Medication Possession Ratio

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a genetic and multisystemic disease that requires a high therapeutic demand for its control. The aim of this study was to assess therapeutic adherence (TA) to different treatments to study possible clinical consequences and clinical factors influencing adherence. This is an ambispective observational study of 57 patients aged over 18 years with a diagnosis of CF. The assessment of TA was calculated using the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR) index. These data were related to exacerbations and the rate of decline in FEV1 percentage. Compliance was good for all CFTR modulators, azithromycin, aztreonam, and tobramycin in solution for inhalation. The patients with the best compliance were older; they had exacerbations and the greatest deterioration in lung function during this period. The three variables with the highest importance for the compliance of the generated Random Forest (RF) models were age, FEV1%, and use of Ivacaftor/Tezacaftor. This is one of the few studies to assess adherence to CFTR modulators and symptomatic treatment longitudinally. CF patient therapy is expensive, and the assessment of variables with the highest importance for a high MPR, helped by new Machine learning tools, can contribute to defining new efficient TA strategies with higher benefits.

Interannual and seasonal variations of permafrost thaw depth on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A comparative study using long short-term memory, convolutional neural networks, and random forest

An accurate estimation of thaw depth is critical to understanding permafrost changes due to climate warming on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). However, previous studies mainly focused on the interannual changes of active layer thickness (ALT) across the QTP, and little is known about the changes in the seasonal thaw depth. Machine learning (ML) is a critical tool to accurately estimate the ALT of permafrost, but a direct comparison of ML with deep learning (DL) in ALT projection regarding the model performance is still lacking. Here, ML, namely random forest (RF), and DL algorithms like convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks were compared to estimate the interannual changes of ALT and seasonal thaw depth on the QTP. Meteorological series, in-situ collected ALT observations, and geospatial information were used as predictors. The results show that both ML and DL methods are capable of estimating ALT and seasonal thaw depth in permafrost areas. The CNN and LSTM models developed using longer lagging times exhibit better performance in thaw depth prediction while the RF models are either mediocre or sometimes even worse as the lagging time increases. The results show that the ALT from 2003 to 2011 on the QTP exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the northern region. In addition, 68.8%, 88.7%, 52.5%, and 47.5% of the permafrost regions on the QTP have deepened seasonal thaw depth in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The correlation between air temperature and permafrost thaw depth ranges from 0.65 to 1 with the time lag ranging from 1 to 32 days. This study shows that ML and DL can be effectively used in retrieving ALT and seasonal thaw depth of permafrost, and could present an efficient way to figure out the interannual and seasonal variations of permafrost conditions under climate warming.

Variation in and Factors Associated With US County-Level Cancer Mortality, 2008-2019

IMPORTANCE

The association between cancer mortality and risk factors may vary by geography. However, conventional methodological approaches rarely account for this variation.

OBJECTIVE

To identify geographic variations in the association between risk factors and cancer mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This geospatial cross-sectional study used county-level data from the National Center for Health Statistics for individuals who died of cancer from 2008 to 2019. Risk factor data were obtained from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps, Health Resources and Services Administration, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Analyses were conducted from October 2021 to July 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Conventional random forest models were applied nationwide and by US region, and the geographical random forest model (accounting for local variation of association) was applied to assess associations between a wide range of risk factors and cancer mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 7 179 201 individuals (median age, 70-74 years; 3 409 508 women [47.5%]) who died from cancer in 3108 contiguous US counties during 2008 to 2019. The mean (SD) county-level cancer mortality rate was 177.0 (26.4) deaths per 100 000 people. On the basis of the variable importance measure, the random forest models identified multiple risk factors associated with cancer mortality, including smoking, receipt of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, and obesity. The geographical random forest model further identified risk factors that varied at the county level. For example, receipt of SNAP benefits was a high-importance factor in the Appalachian region, North and South Dakota, and Northern California; smoking was of high importance in Kentucky and Tennessee; and female-headed households were high-importance factors in North and South Dakota. Geographic areas with certain high-importance risk factors did not consistently have a corresponding high prevalence of the same risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, the associations between cancer mortality and risk factors varied by geography in a way that did not correspond strictly to risk factor prevalence. The degree to which other place-specific characteristics, observed and unobserved, modify risk factor effects should be further explored, and this work suggests that risk factor importance may be a preferable paradigm for selecting cancer control interventions compared with risk factor prevalence.

Novel Insights in Spatial Epidemiology Utilizing Explainable AI (XAI) and Remote Sensing

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many aspects of human life around the world, due to its tremendous outcomes on public health and socio-economic activities. Policy makers have tried to develop efficient responses based on technologies and advanced pandemic control methodologies, to limit the wide spreading of the virus in urban areas. However, techniques such as social isolation and lockdown are short-term solutions that minimize the spread of the pandemic in cities and do not invert long-term issues that derive from climate change, air pollution and urban planning challenges that enhance the spreading ability. Thus, it seems crucial to understand what kind of factors assist or prevent the wide spreading of the virus. Although AI frameworks have a very efficient predictive ability as data-driven procedures, they often struggle to identify strong correlations among multidimensional data and provide robust explanations. In this paper, we propose the fusion of a heterogeneous, spatio-temporal dataset that combine data from eight European cities spanning from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021 and describe atmospheric, socio-economic, health, mobility and environmental factors all related to potential links with COVID-19. Remote sensing data are the key solution to monitor the availability on public green spaces between cities in the study period. So, we evaluate the benefits of NIR and RED bands of satellite images to calculate the NDVI and locate the percentage in vegetation cover on each city for each week of our 2-year study. This novel dataset is evaluated by a tree-based machine learning algorithm that utilizes ensemble learning and is trained to make robust predictions on daily cases and deaths. Comparisons with other machine learning techniques justify its robustness on the regression metrics RMSE and MAE. Furthermore, the explainable frameworks SHAP and LIME are utilized to locate potential positive or negative influence of the factors on global and local level, with respect to our model’s predictive ability. A variation of SHAP, namely treeSHAP, is utilized for our tree-based algorithm to make fast and accurate explanations.

Machine learning applications for COVID-19 outbreak management

Recently, the COVID-19 epidemic has resulted in millions of deaths and has impacted practically every area of human life. Several machine learning (ML) approaches are employed in the medical field in many applications, including detecting and monitoring patients, notably in COVID-19 management. Different medical imaging systems, such as computed tomography (CT) and X-ray, offer ML an excellent platform for combating the pandemic. Because of this need, a significant quantity of study has been carried out; thus, in this work, we employed a systematic literature review (SLR) to cover all aspects of outcomes from related papers. Imaging methods, survival analysis, forecasting, economic and geographical issues, monitoring methods, medication development, and hybrid apps are the seven key uses of applications employed in the COVID-19 pandemic. Conventional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), recurrent neural networks (RNNs), generative adversarial networks (GANs), autoencoders, random forest, and other ML techniques are frequently used in such scenarios. Next, cutting-edge applications related to ML techniques for pandemic medical issues are discussed. Various problems and challenges linked with ML applications for this pandemic were reviewed. It is expected that additional research will be conducted in the upcoming to limit the spread and catastrophe management. According to the data, most papers are evaluated mainly on characteristics such as flexibility and accuracy, while other factors such as safety are overlooked. Also, Keras was the most often used library in the research studied, accounting for 24.4 percent of the time. Furthermore, medical imaging systems are employed for diagnostic reasons in 20.4 percent of applications.

Exploring the socioeconomic drivers of COVID-19 mortality across various spatial regimes

Identifying the socioeconomic drivers of COVID-19 deaths is essential for designing effective policies and health interventions. However, how the significance and impact of these factors varies across different spatial regimes has been scantly explored. In this ecological cross-sectional study, we apply the spatial lag by regimes regression model to examine how the socioeconomic and health determinants of COVID-19 death rate vary across (a) metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan, (b) shelter-in-place vs. no-shelter-in-place order, and (c) Democratic vs. Republican US counties. A total of 20 variables were studied across 3108 counties in the contiguous US for the first year of the pandemic (6 February 2020 to 5 February 2021). The results show that the COVID-19 death rate not only depends on a complex interplay of the population demographic, socioeconomic and health-related characteristics, but also on the spatial regime that the residents live, work and play. Household median income, household size, percentage of African Americans, percentage aged 40-59 and heart disease mortality are significant to metropolitan but not to non-metropolitan counties. We identified lack of insurance access as a significant driver across all regimes except for Democratic. We also showed that the political orientation of the governor might have impacted COVID-19 death rates due to the public response (i.e., shelter-in-place vs. no-shelter-in-place order). The proposed analysis allows for understanding the socioeconomic context in which public health policies can be applied, and importantly, it presents how COVID-19 death related factors vary across different spatial regimes.