The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure

Risk Factors for All-Cause Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with Advanced Heart Failure: A Scoping Review

Introduction: Identifying the evolving needs of patients with advanced heart failure (AdHF) and triaging those at high risk of death can facilitate timely referrals to palliative care and advance patient-centered individualized care. There are limited models specific for patients with end-stage HF. We aim to identify risk factors associated with up to three-year all-cause mortality (ACM) and describe prognostic models developed or validated in AdHF populations. Methods: Frameworks proposed by Arksey, O'Malley, and Levac were adopted for this scoping review. We searched the Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane library, Web of Science and gray literature databases for articles published between January 2010 and September 2020. Primary studies that included adults aged ≥ 18 years, diagnosed with AdHF defined as New York Heart Association class III/IV, American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Stage D, end-stage HF, and assessed for risk factors associated with up to three-year ACM using multivariate analysis were included. Studies were appraised using the Quality of Prognostic Studies tool. Data were analyzed using a narrative synthesis approach. Results: We reviewed 167 risk factors that were associated with up to three-year ACM and prognostic models specific to AdHF patients across 65 articles with low-to-moderate bias. Studies were mostly based in Western and/or European cohorts (n = 60), in the acute care setting (n = 56), and derived from clinical trials (n = 40). Risk factors were grouped into six domains. Variables related to cardiovascular and overall health were frequently assessed. Ten prognostic models developed/validated on AdHF patients displayed acceptable model performance [area under the curve (AUC) range: 0.71-0.81]. Among the ten models, the model for end-stage-liver disease (MELD-XI) and acute decompensated HF with N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/proBNP) model attained the highest discriminatory performance against short-term ACM (AUC: 0.81). Conclusions: To enable timely referrals to palliative care interventions, further research is required to develop or validate prognostic models that consider the evolving landscape of AdHF management.

The different risk of new-onset, chronic, worsening, and advanced heart failure: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and progressive syndrome associated with a poor prognosis. While it may seem intuitive that the risk of adverse outcomes varies across the different stages of HF, an overview of these risks is lacking. This study aims to determine the risk of all-cause mortality and HF hospitalizations associated with new-onset HF, chronic HF (CHF), worsening HF (WHF), and advanced HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a systematic review of observational studies from 2012 to 2022 using five different databases. The primary outcomes were 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality, as well as 1-year HF hospitalization. Studies were pooled using random effects meta-analysis, and mixed-effects meta-regression was used to compare the different HF groups. Among the 15 759 studies screened, 66 were included representing 862 046 HF patients. Pooled 30-day mortality rates did not reveal a significant distinction between hospital-admitted patients, with rates of 10.13% for new-onset HF and 8.11% for WHF (p = 0.10). However, the 1-year mortality risk differed and increased stepwise from CHF to advanced HF, with a rate of 8.47% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.24-9.89) for CHF, 21.15% (95% CI 17.78-24.95) for new-onset HF, 26.84% (95% CI 23.74-30.19) for WHF, and 29.74% (95% CI 24.15-36.10) for advanced HF. Readmission rates for HF at 1 year followed a similar trend.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis of observational studies confirms the different risk for adverse outcomes across the distinct HF stages. Moreover, it emphasizes the negative prognostic value of WHF as the first progressive stage from CHF towards advanced HF.

Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score and Mode of Death in Acute Heart Failure: Insights from REALITY-AHF

Patients with heart failure (HF) patients may die either suddenly (sudden cardiac death/SCD) or progressively from pump failure. The heightened risk of SCD in patients with HF may expedite important decisions about medications or devices. We used the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score (LHFRS), a validated risk model for all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization, to investigate the mode of death in 1363 patients enrolled in the Registry Focused on Very Early Presentation and Treatment in Emergency Department of Acute Heart Failure (REALITY-AHF). Cumulative incidence curves were generated using a Fine-Gray competing risk regression, with deaths that were not due to the cause of death of interest as a competing risk. Likewise, the Fine-Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between each variable and the incidence of each cause of death. The AHEAD score, a well-validated HF risk score ranging from 0 to 5 (atrial fibrillation, anemia, age, renal dysfunction, and diabetes mellitus), was used for the risk adjustment. Patients with LHFRS 2-4 exhibited a significantly higher risk of SCD (HR hazard ratio adjusted for AHEAD score 3.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.30-7.65), p = 0.011) and HF death (adjusted HR for AHEAD score 1.48, 95% CI (1.04-2.09), p = 0.03), compared to those with LHFRS 0,1. Regarding cardiovascular death, patients with higher LHFRS had significantly increased risk compared to those with lower LHFRS (HR 1.44 adjusted for AHEAD score, 95% CI (1.09-1.91), p = 0.01). Lastly, patients with higher LHFRS exhibited a similar risk of non-cardiovascular death compared to those with lower LHFRS (HR 1.44 adjusted for AHEAD score, 95% CI (0.95-2.19), p = 0.087). In conclusion, LHFRS was associated independently with the mode of death in a prospective cohort of hospitalized HF patients.

Efficacy of the New Inotropic Agent Istaroxime in Acute Heart Failure

Current therapeutic strategies for acute heart failure (AHF) are based on traditional inotropic agents that are often associated with untoward effects; therefore, finding new effective approaches with a safer profile is dramatically needed. Istaroxime is a novel compound, chemically unrelated to cardiac glycosides, that is currently being studied for the treatment of AHF. Its effects are essentially related to its inotropic and lusitropic positive properties exerted through a dual mechanism of action: activation of the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ ATPase isoform 2a (SERCA2a) and inhibition of the Na+/K+-ATPase (NKA) activity. The advantages of istaroxime over the available inotropic agents include its lower arrhythmogenic action combined with its capability of increasing systolic blood pressure without augmenting heart rate. However, it has a limited half-life (1 hour) and is associated with adverse effects including pain at the injection site and gastrointestinal issues. Herein, we describe the main mechanism of action of istaroxime and we present a systematic overview of both clinical and preclinical trials testing this drug, underlining the latest insights regarding its adoption in clinical practice for AHF.

Long-term outcomes and independent predictors of mortality in patients presenting to emergency departments with acute heart failure in Beijing: a multicenter cohort study with a 5-year follow-up

Background:

Acute heart failure (AHF) is the most common disease in emergency departments (EDs). However, clinical data exploring the outcomes of patients presenting AHF in EDs are limited, especially the long-term outcomes. The purposes of this study were to describe the long-term outcomes of patients with AHF in the EDs and further analyze their prognostic factors.

Methods:

This prospective, multicenter, cohort study consecutively enrolled 3335 patients with AHF who were admitted to EDs of 14 hospitals from Beijing between January 1, 2011 and September 23, 2012. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were adopted to evaluate 5-year outcomes and associated predictors.

Results:

The 5-year mortality and cardiovascular death rates were 55.4% and 49.6%, respectively. The median overall survival was 34 months. Independent predictors of 5-year mortality were patient age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.027, 95 confidence interval [CI]: 1.023–1.030), body mass index (BMI) (HR: 0.971, 95% CI: 0.958–0.983), fatigue (HR: 1.127, 95% CI: 1.009–1.258), ascites (HR: 1.190, 95% CI: 1.057–1.340), hepatic jugular reflux (HR: 1.339, 95% CI: 1.140–1.572), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III to IV (HR: 1.511, 95% CI: 1.291–1.769), heart rate (HR: 1.003, 95% CI: 1.001–1.005), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (HR: 0.996, 95% CI: 0.993–0.999), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (HR: 1.014, 95% CI: 1.008–1.020), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level in the third (HR: 1.426, 95% CI: 1.220–1.668) or fourth quartile (HR: 1.437, 95% CI: 1.223–1.690), serum sodium (HR: 0.980, 95% CI: 0.972–0.988), serum albumin (HR: 0.981, 95% CI: 0.971–0.992), ischemic heart diseases (HR: 1.195, 95% CI: 1.073–1.331), primary cardiomyopathy (HR: 1.382, 95% CI: 1.183–1.614), diabetes (HR: 1.118, 95% CI: 1.010–1.237), stroke (HR: 1.252, 95% CI: 1.121–1.397), and the use of diuretics (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.626–0.814), β-blockers (HR: 0.673, 95% CI: 0.588–0.769), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.604–0.845), angiotensin-II receptor blockers (ARBs) (HR: 0.790, 95% CI: 0.646–0.965), spironolactone (HR: 0.814, 95% CI: 0.663–0.999), calcium antagonists (HR: 0.624, 95% CI: 0.531–0.733), nitrates (HR: 0.715, 95% CI: 0.631–0.811), and digoxin (HR: 0.579, 95% CI: 0.465–0.721).

Conclusions:

The results of our study demonstrate poor 5-year outcomes of patients presenting to EDs with AHF. Age, BMI, fatigue, ascites, hepatic jugular reflux, NYHA class III to IV, heart rate, DBP, BUN, BNP/NT-proBNP level in the third or fourth quartile, serum sodium, serum albumin, ischemic heart diseases, primary cardiomyopathy, diabetes, stroke, and the use of diuretics, β-blockers, ACEIs, ARBs, spironolactone, calcium antagonists, nitrates, and digoxin were independently associated with 5-year all-cause mortality.

Risk scores did not reliably predict individual risk of mortality for patients with decompensated heart failure

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the performance of four prognostic tools in predicting 180-day mortality for patients admitted for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) over a range of risk thresholds, in addition to discrimination and calibration.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We studied 1,458 patients. The risk assessment was performed using the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) model and the Get With The Guidelines (GWTG), ADHF/NT-proBNP, and Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure (ASCEND) risk scores.

RESULTS

C-statistics ranged from 0.727 for the ADHERE model to 0.767 for the ADHF/NT-proBNP score. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score, the ADHERE model, and the ASCEND risk score, but not the GWTG risk score, were also well calibrated. Sensitivity and PPV were modest at the >30% risk threshold and ranged from 55% for the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to 38.8% for the ADHERE model and from 46.7% for the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to 42.1% for the ASCEND risk score, respectively. There was a modest agreement between the risk scores in classifying the patients across risk strata or in classifying those who died as being at >30% risk of death.

CONCLUSION

Although risk assessment tools work well for stratifying patients, their use in estimating the risk of mortality for individuals has limited clinical utility.

Predicting the 1-Year All-Cause Mortality After Hospitalisation for an Acute Heart Failure Event: A Real-World Derivation Cohort for the Development of the S2PLiT-UG Score

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a complex syndrome associated with high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to derive a simple risk score with which to identify AHF patients at high risk for an all-cause death event during the first year after hospital discharge.

METHODS

Three hundred AHF patients from the Heart Failure registry were included in the analysis. Cox regression with a forward-conditional algorithm and bootstrapping procedure was used to build the prognostic score, while c-statistic was used to assess the prognostic performance of the score.

RESULTS

Seven variables were independently associated with an all-cause mortality event during the 1-year follow-up (FU): estimated glomerular filtration rate of 40-60; estimated glomerular filtration rate <40 mL/min/1.73 m²; uric acid >450 μmol/L; left-ventricular ejection fraction <45%; sodium <136 mmol/L; systolic blood pressure <115 mmHg; and a positive history of previous heart failure-related decompensation event(s). The score derived from significant variables enabled classification of patients into three risk categories: low (0-2 points), intermediate (3 points), and high (4-6 points). Observed all-cause mortality rates during the 1-year FU were 6.1%, 30.5%, and 80.9% across the three risk categories, respectively. The score demonstrated a high level of discrimination for an all-cause death event in the derivation cohort with the c-statistic value of 0.907 (95% CI, 0.867-0.939; p < 0.0001) and adequate calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The S₂PLiT-UG score is a simple tool with potential for facilitating risk stratification and therapeutic decision-making during the first year after hospitalisation for an AHF event. Future external validation studies are required to confirm its prognostic performance.

The Surprise Question Can Be Used to Identify Heart Failure Patients in the Emergency Department Who Would Benefit From Palliative Care

CONTEXT

Heart failure (HF) is associated with symptom exacerbations and risk of mortality after an emergency department (ED) visit. Although emergency physicians (EPs) treat symptoms of HF, often the opportunity to connect with palliative care is missed. The "surprise question" (SQ) "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?" is a simple tool to identify patients at risk for 12-month mortality.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of the SQ when used by EPs to assess patients with HF.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in which clinicians applied the SQ to patients presenting to the ED with symptoms of HF. Chart review and review of death records were completed. The primary outcome was accuracy of the surprise question to predict 12-month mortality. A univariate analysis for potential predictors of 12-month mortality was performed.

RESULTS

During the study period, 199 patients were identified, and complete data were available for 97% of observations (n = 193). The one-year mortality was 29%. EPs reported that "they would not be surprised" if the patient died within the next 12 months in 53% of cases. 42.7% of these patients died within 12 months compared to 13.3% in the "would be surprised" group. There was a strong association with death in the "not surprised" group (odds ratio 4.85, 95% CI 2.34-9.98, P < 0.0001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the SQ were 78.6%, 56.9%, 42.7%, and 86.7%, respectively, with c-statistic = 0.68.

CONCLUSION

The SQ screening tool can assist ED providers in identifying HF patients that would benefit from early palliative care involvement.

Application of competing risks analysis improved prognostic assessment of patients with decompensated chronic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

OBJECTIVE

The Kaplan-Meier method may overestimate absolute mortality risk (AMR) in the presence of competing risks. Urgent heart transplantation (UHT) and ventricular assist device implantation (VADi) are important competing events in heart failure. We sought to quantify the extent of bias of the Kaplan-Meier method in estimating AMR in the presence of competing events and to analyze the effect of covariates on the hazard for death and competing events in the clinical model of decompensated chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (DCHFrEF).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We studied 683 patients. We used the cumulative incidence function (CIF) to estimate the AMR at 1 year. CIF estimate was compared with the Kaplan-Meier estimate. The Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard analysis was used to assess the effect of covariates on the hazard for death and UHT/VADi.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the AMR was 0.272, whereas the CIF estimate was 0.246. The difference was more pronounced in the patient subgroup with advanced DCHF (0.424 vs. 0.338). The Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard analysis revealed that established risk markers have qualitatively different effects on the incidence of death or UHT/VADi.

CONCLUSION

Competing risks analysis allows more accurately estimating AMR and better understanding the association between covariates and major outcomes in DCHFrEF.

Long-term mortality in older patients discharged after acute decompensated heart failure: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data are available on short- and intermediate-term mortality rates after discharge for acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF). However, few studies specifically addressed ADHF outcomes in patients aged 75 years or over, who contribute more than half of all ADHF admissions. Our objectives here were to estimate the long-term mortality of patients aged 75 years or over who were discharged after admission for ADHF and to identify factors, especially geriatric findings, independently associated with 2-year mortality.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study in five French hospitals included consecutive patients aged 75 years or older and discharged after emergency-department admission for ADHF meeting Framingham criteria (N = 478; median age, 85 years; 68% female). Kaplan-Meier 1-year and 2-year survival curves were plotted. Admission characteristics independently associated with overall 2-year mortality were identified using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression.

RESULTS

Mortality was 41.7% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 37.2%-53.5%) after 1 year and 56.0% (95% CI, 51.5%-60.7%) after 2 years. By multivariable analysis, independent predictors of 2-year mortality were male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.00-1.82), age >85 years (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.19-2.07), higher number of impaired activities of daily living (HR, 1.11 per impaired item; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17), recent weight loss (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.14-2.28), and lower systolic blood pressure (HR, 0.86 per standard deviation increase; 95% CI, 0.74-0.99). Creatinine clearance ≤30 mL/min showed a trend toward an association with 2-year mortality (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.97-2.00).

CONCLUSION

Functional impairment before admission is associated with higher long-term mortality in patients ≥75 years admitted for ADHF. This study focused on geriatric markers not traditionally collected in heart-failure patients but did not analyse all cardiologic parameters associated with outcomes in other studies. Nevertheless, our findings may contribute to identify those patients admitted for ADHF who have the worst prognosis.

Incremental utility of prognostic variables at discharge for risk prediction in hospitalized patients with acutely decompensated chronic heart failure

OBJECTIVES

To assess the incremental prognostic utility of discharge serum creatinine (SCr), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and NT-proBNP and sodium concentrations in hospitalized patients with acutely decompensated chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND

Whether key prognostic variables at discharge provide incremental prognostic information beyond that provided by a model based on admission variables (referent) remains incompletely defined.

METHODS

The primary outcome was a composite of death, urgent heart transplantation, or ventricular assist device implantation at 1 year. The gain in predictive performance was assessed using C index, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Net Reclassification Improvement.

RESULTS

The best fit was obtained when discharge NT-proBNP was added to the referent model. No interaction between admission and discharge NT-proBNP was found. Discharge SCr, SBP, and sodium did not improve goodness-of-fit.

CONCLUSIONS

Admission and discharge NT-proBNP provide complementary and independent prognostic information; as such, they should be taken into account concurrently.

The utility of biomarker risk prediction score in patients with chronic heart failure

Background

Chronic heart failure (CHF) has been remained a leading cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortaluty. The risk stratification of CHF individuals based on clinical criteria and biomarkers' models may improve medical care and probably increase efficacy of treatment strategy. However, various predictive models approved for CHF patients appear to be distinguished in their prognostications. The study aim was to evaluate whether biomarker risk prediction score is powerful tool for risk assessment of three-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in CHF patients.

Methods

It was studied prospectively the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in a cohort of 388 patients with ischemic-induced CHF within 3 years. Circulating biomarkers were collected at baseline of the study.

Results

Independent predictors of clinical outcomes in patients with CHF were NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31⁺/annexin V⁺ endothelail-derived microparticles (EMPs) and CD31⁺/annexin V⁺ EMPs to CD14⁺CD309⁺ monuclear progenitor cells (MPCs) ratio. Index of cardiovascular risk was calculated by mathematical summation of all ranks of independent predictors, which occurred in the patients included in the study. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with CHF and the magnitude of the risk of less than 4 units have an advantage in survival when compared with patients for whom obtained higher values of cardiovascular risk score ranks.

Conclusion

Biomarker risk score for cumulative cardiovascular events, constructed by measurement of circulating NT-pro-BNP, galectin-3, hs-CRP, osteoprotegerin, CD31+/annexin V+ EMPs and CD31⁺/annexin V⁺ EMPs to CD14⁺CD309⁺ MPCs ratio, allowing reliably predict the probability survival of patients with CHF.

Mid-term survival after continuous-flow left ventricular assist device versus heart transplantation

There is a paucity of data about mid-term outcome of patients with advanced heart failure (HF) treated with left ventricular assist device (LVAD) in Europe, where donor shortage and their aging limit the availability and the probability of success of heart transplantation (HTx). The aim of this study is to compare Italian single-centre mid-term outcome in prospective patients treated with LVAD vs. HTx. We evaluated 213 consecutive patients with advanced HF who underwent continuous-flow LVAD implant or HTx from 1/2006 to 2/2012, with complete follow-up at 1 year (3/2013). We compared outcome in patients who received a LVAD (n = 49) with those who underwent HTx (n = 164) and in matched groups of 39 LVAD and 39 HTx patients. Patients that were treated with LVAD had a worse risk profile in comparison with HTx patients. Kaplan-Meier survival curves estimated a one-year survival of 75.5 % in LVAD vs. 82.3 % in HTx patients, a difference that was non-statistically significant [hazard ratio (HR) 1.46; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.74-2.86; p = 0.27 for LVAD vs. HTx]. After group matching 1-year survival was similar between LVAD (76.9 %) and HTx (79.5 %; HR 1.15; 95 % CI 0.44-2.98; p = 0.78). Concordant data was observed at 2-year follow-up. Patients treated with LVAD as bridge-to-transplant indication (n = 22) showed a non significant better outcome compared with HTx with a 95.5 and 90.9 % survival, at 1- and 2-year follow-up, respectively. Despite worse preoperative conditions, survival is not significantly lower after LVAD than after HTx at 2-year follow-up. Given the scarce number of donors for HTx, LVAD therapy represents a valid option, potentially affecting the current allocation strategy of heart donors also in Europe.

Predicting short-term mortality in advanced decompensated heart failure - role of the updated acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic Peptide risk score

BACKGROUND

The first few months after admission are the most vulnerable period in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We assessed the association of the updated ADHF/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) risk score with 90-day and in-hospital mortality in 701 patients admitted with advanced ADHF, defined as severe symptoms of worsening HF, severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, and the need for i.v. diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. A total of 15.7% of the patients died within 90 days of admission and 5.2% underwent ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation or urgent heart transplantation (UHT). The C-statistic of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score for 90-day mortality was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.769-0.852). Predicted and observed mortality rates were in close agreement. When the composite outcome of death/VAD/UHT at 90 days was considered, the C-statistic decreased to 0.741. During hospitalization, 7.6% of the patients died. The C-statistic for in-hospital mortality was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.761-0.868) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.71 (P=0.716). The updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score outperformed the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry, the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Program predictive models.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score is a valuable tool for predicting short-term mortality in severe ADHF, outperforming existing inpatient predictive models.