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Grover EN, Buchwald AG, Ghosh D, Carlton EJ. Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? evidence from cell-phone data. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0305323. [PMID: 38905199 PMCID: PMC11192350 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 05/24/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024] Open
Abstract
There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. We also evaluated the evidence for seasonal effect modification by comparing the results of all-season (using season as a covariate) to season-stratified models. Four weather conditions were associated with both time spent indoors away-from-home and 12-day lagged COVID-19 hospital admissions in one or more season: high minimum temperature (all-season), low maximum temperature (spring), low minimum absolute humidity (winter), and high solar radiation (all-season & winter). In our mediation analyses, we found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, as well as other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elise N. Grover
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Andrea G. Buchwald
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Debashis Ghosh
- Department of Biostatistics & Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth J. Carlton
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
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Grover EN, Buchwald AG, Ghosh D, Carlton EJ. Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? Evidence from cell-phone data. MEDRXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR HEALTH SCIENCES 2024:2024.03.26.24304854. [PMID: 38585859 PMCID: PMC10996765 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.26.24304854] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/09/2024]
Abstract
Background There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. Objectives We aim to evaluate the extent to which weather impacts COVID-19 via time spent away-from-home in indoor spaces, as compared to a direct effect of weather on COVID-19 hospitalization, independent of mobility. Methods We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. Results We found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Sensitivity analyses evaluating time at home as a mediator were consistent with these conclusions. Discussion Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elise N. Grover
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA
| | - Andrea G. Buchwald
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Debashis Ghosh
- Department of Biostatistics & Informatics, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA
| | - Elizabeth J. Carlton
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA
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Maleki A, Aboubakri O, Rezaee R, Alahmad B, Sera F. Seasonal variation of Covid-19 incidence and role of land surface and air temperatures: a case study in the west of Iran. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH 2024; 34:1342-1354. [PMID: 36998230 DOI: 10.1080/09603123.2023.2196057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 03/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
.In this study, we assessed the impact of satellite-based Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Air Temperature (AT) on covid-19. First, we spatio-temporally kriged the LST and applied bias correction. The epidemic shape, timing, and size were compared after and before adjusting for the predictors. Given the non-linear behavior of a pandemic, a semi-parametric regression model was used. In addition, the interaction effect between the predictors and season was assessed. Before adjusting for the predictors, the peak happened at the end of hot season. After adjusting, it was attenuated and slightly moved forward. Moreover, the Attributable Fraction (AF) and Peak to Trough Relative (PTR) were % 23 (95% CI; 15, 32) and 1.62 (95%CI; 1.34, 1.97), respectively. We found that temperature might have changed the seasonal variation of covid-19. However, given the large uncertainty after adjusting for the variables, it was hard to provide conclusive evidence in the region we studied.
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Affiliation(s)
- Afshin Maleki
- Green Technology and Sustainable Development in Construction Research Group, School of Engineering and Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Faculty of Environment, School of Engineering and Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Omid Aboubakri
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Reza Rezaee
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, College of Public Health, Kuwait University, Kuwait, Kuwait
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, University of London, London, UK
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications 'G.Parenti', University of Florence, Florence, Italy
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Koanda O, Yonaba R, Tazen F, Karoui H, Sidibé ML, Lèye B, Diop M, Andrianisa HA, Karambiri H. Climate and COVID-19 transmission: a cross-sectional study in Africa. Sci Rep 2023; 13:18702. [PMID: 37907735 PMCID: PMC10618194 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-46007-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/26/2023] [Indexed: 11/02/2023] Open
Abstract
The role of climate in the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission appears to be controversial, as reported in earlier studies. In Africa, the subject is poorly documented. In this study, over the period from January 1st, 2020 to September 31, 2022, the daily variations in cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 for each African country (54 countries) are modelled through time-series-based approaches and using meteorological factors as covariates. It is suggested from the findings that climate plays a role in COVID-19 transmission since at least one meteorological factor is found to be significant in 32 countries. In decreasing order, the most often occurring meteorological factors are dewpoint temperature, relative and absolute humidity, average temperature and solar radiation. Most of these factors show a lagged effect with confirmed cases (between 0 and 28 days). Also, some meteorological factors exhibit contrasting effects on COVID-19 transmission, resulting in both positive and negative association with cumulative cases, therefore highlighting the complex nature of the interplay between climate and COVID-19 transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ousmane Koanda
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Roland Yonaba
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
| | - Fowé Tazen
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Héla Karoui
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Mohamed Lamine Sidibé
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Babacar Lèye
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Mamadou Diop
- Laboratoire Eco-Matériaux et Habitat Durable (LEMHaD), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Harinaivo Anderson Andrianisa
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Harouna Karambiri
- Laboratoire Eaux, Hydro-Systèmes et Agriculture (LEHSA), Institut International d'Ingénierie de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
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Jenkins GS, Freire SM, Ogunro T, Niang D, Andrade M, Drame MS, Huvi JB, Pires EES, Toure EN, Camara M. COVID-19 New Cases and Environmental Factors During Wet and Dry Seasons in West and Southern Africa. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2022GH000765. [PMID: 37519911 PMCID: PMC10383768 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Revised: 05/08/2023] [Accepted: 06/20/2023] [Indexed: 08/01/2023]
Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa has been the last continent to experience a significant number of cases in the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). Studies suggest that air pollution is related to COVID-19 mortality; poor air quality has been linked to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory diseases, which are considered co-morbidities linked to COVID-19 deaths. We examine potential connections between country-wide COVID-19 cases and environmental conditions in Senegal, Cabo Verde, Nigeria, Cote D'Ivorie, and Angola. We analyze PM2.5 concentrations, temperatures from cost-effective in situ measurements, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and fire count and NO2 column values from space-borne platforms from 1 January 2020 through 31 March 2021. Our results show that the first COVID-19 wave in West Africa began during the wet season of 2020, followed by a second during the dry season of 2020. In Angola, the first wave starts during the biomass burning season but does not peak until November of 2020. Overall PM2.5 concentrations are the highest in Ibadan, Nigeria, and coincided with the second wave of COVID-19 in late 2021 and early 2022. The COVID-19 waves in Cabo Verde are not in phase with those in Senegal, Nigeria, and Cote, lagging by several months in general. Overall, the highest correlations occurred between weekly new COVID-19 cases meteorological and air quality variables occurred in the dry season.
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Affiliation(s)
- G. S. Jenkins
- Alliance for Education, Science, Engineering and Design with Africa (AESEDA)Pennsylvania State UniversityUniversity ParkPAUSA
| | | | | | - D. Niang
- Cheikh Anta Diop UniversityDakarSenegal
| | | | | | - J. B. Huvi
- Instituto Superior de Ciências da Educação de Benguela ‐ AngolaBenguelaAngola
| | - E. E. S. Pires
- Centro de Estudos e Pesquisa do TundavalaEngineering DepartmentISPTundavalaLubangoAngola
| | - E. N. Toure
- University Felix Houphouet BiognyAbidjanCote D'Ivorie
| | - M. Camara
- University of Assane SeckZiguinchorSenegal
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Odhiambo JN, Dolan CB, Troup L, Rojas NP. Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiological approaches to inform COVID-19 surveillance and control: a systematic review of statistical and modelling methods in Africa. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e067134. [PMID: 36697047 PMCID: PMC9884571 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-067134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Various studies have been published to better understand the underlying spatial and temporal dynamics of COVID-19. This review sought to identify different spatial and spatio-temporal modelling methods that have been applied to COVID-19 and examine influential covariates that have been reportedly associated with its risk in Africa. DESIGN Systematic review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. DATA SOURCES Thematically mined keywords were used to identify refereed studies conducted between January 2020 and February 2022 from the following databases: PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE via Proquest, CINHAL via EBSCOhost and Coronavirus Research Database via ProQuest. A manual search through the reference list of studies was also conducted. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES Peer-reviewed studies that demonstrated the application of spatial and temporal approaches to COVID-19 outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS A standardised extraction form based on critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies checklist was used to extract the meta-data of the included studies. A validated scoring criterion was used to assess studies based on their methodological relevance and quality. RESULTS Among 2065 hits in five databases, title and abstract screening yielded 827 studies of which 22 were synthesised and qualitatively analysed. The most common socioeconomic variable was population density. HIV prevalence was the most common epidemiological indicator, while temperature was the most common environmental indicator. Thirteen studies (59%) implemented diverse formulations of spatial and spatio-temporal models incorporating unmeasured factors of COVID-19 and the subtle influence of time and space. Cluster analyses were used across seven studies (32%) to explore COVID-19 variation and determine whether observed patterns were random. CONCLUSION COVID-19 modelling in Africa is still in its infancy, and a range of spatial and spatio-temporal methods have been employed across diverse settings. Strengthening routine data systems remains critical for generating estimates and understanding factors that drive spatial variation in vulnerable populations and temporal variation in pandemic progression. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42021279767.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julius Nyerere Odhiambo
- Ignite Global Health Research Lab, Global Research Institute, William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
- Kinesiology and Health Sciences, William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
| | - Carrie B Dolan
- Ignite Global Health Research Lab, Global Research Institute, William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
- Kinesiology and Health Sciences, William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
| | - Lydia Troup
- Ignite Global Health Research Lab, Global Research Institute, William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
| | - Nathaly Perez Rojas
- Ignite Global Health Research Lab, Global Research Institute, William & Mary, Williamsburg, Virginia, USA
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Mwiinde AM, Siankwilimba E, Sakala M, Banda F, Michelo C. Climatic and Environmental Factors Influencing COVID-19 Transmission-An African Perspective. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:tropicalmed7120433. [PMID: 36548688 PMCID: PMC9785776 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7120433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Revised: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 12/03/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 was decreed by the World Health Organization as a public health emergency of worldwide concern, the epidemic has drawn attention from all around the world. The disease has since spread globally in developed and developing countries. The African continent has not been spared from the pandemic; however, the low number of cases in Africa compared to developed countries has brought about more questions than answers. Africa is known to have a poor healthcare system that cannot sustain the emerging infectious disease pandemic. This study explored climatic and environmental elements influencing COVID-19 transmission in Africa. This study involved manuscripts and data that evaluated and investigated the climatic and environmental elements of COVID-19 in African countries. Only articles written in English were considered in the systematic review. Seventeen articles and one database were selected for manuscript write-ups after the review process. The findings indicated that there is evidence that suggests the influence of climatic and environmental elements on the spread of COVID-19 in the continent of Africa; however, the evidence needs more investigation in all six regions of Africa and at the country level to understand the role of weather patterns and environmental aspects in the transmission of COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Allan Mayaba Mwiinde
- Graduate School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology Ridgeway Campus, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 50516, Zambia
- Department of Public Health, Mazabuka Municipal Council, Mazabuka P.O. Box 670022, Zambia
- Correspondence:
| | - Enock Siankwilimba
- Graduate School of Business, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 50516, Zambia
| | - Masauso Sakala
- School of Engineering, Department of Geomatic Engineering, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 50516, Zambia
| | - Faustin Banda
- School of Engineering, Department of Geomatic Engineering, University of Zambia, Lusaka P.O. Box 50516, Zambia
- The National Remote Sensing Centre, Plot Number 15302 Airport Road, Lusaka P.O. Box 310303, Zambia
| | - Charles Michelo
- Department of Public Health, Mazabuka Municipal Council, Mazabuka P.O. Box 670022, Zambia
- Harvest Research Institute, Lusaka P.O. Box 51176, Zambia
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Effects of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission in Ethiopia. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19722. [PMID: 36385128 PMCID: PMC9668213 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-24024-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2022] [Accepted: 11/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Climatic conditions play a key role in the transmission and pathophysiology of respiratory tract infections, either directly or indirectly. However, their impact on the COVID-19 pandemic propagation is yet to be studied. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine duration, and wind speed on the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Data on confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained from the National Data Management Center at the Ethiopian Public Health Institute for the period 10th March 2020 to 31st October 2021. Data for climatic factors were obtained from the Ethiopia National Meteorology Agency. The correlation between daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and climatic factors was measured using the Spearman rank correlation test. The log-link negative binomial regression model was used to fit the effect of climatic factors on COVID-19 transmission, from lag 0 to lag 14 days. During the study period, a total of 245,101 COVID-19 cases were recorded in Addis Ababa, with a median of 337 new cases per day and a maximum of 1903 instances per day. A significant correlation between COVID-19 cases and humidity was observed with a 1% increase in relative humidity associated with a 1.1% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.989, 95% (0.97-0.99)] and 1.2% [IRRs (95%CI) 0.988, (0.97-0.99)] decrease in COVID-19 cases for 4 and 5 lag days prior to detection, respectively. The highest increase in the effect of wind speed and rainfall on COVID-19 was observed at 14 lag days prior to detection with IRRs of 1.85 (95%CI 1.26-2.74) and 1.078 (95%CI 1.04-1.12), respectively. The lowest IRR was 1.109 (95%CI 0.93-1.31) and 1.007 (95%CI 0.99-1.02) both in lag 0, respectively. The findings revealed that none of the climatic variables influenced the number of COVID-19 cases on the day of case detection (lag 0), and that daily average temperature and sunshine duration were not significantly linked with COVID-19 risk across the full lag period (p > 0.05). Climatic factors such as humidity, rainfall, and wind speed influence the transmission of COVID-19 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. COVID-19 cases have shown seasonal variations with the highest number of cases reported during the rainy season and the lowest number of cases reported during the dry season. These findings suggest the need to design strategies for the prevention and control of COVID-19 before the rainy seasons.
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COVID-19 transmission in Africa: estimating the role of meteorological factors. Heliyon 2022; 8:e10901. [PMID: 36210862 PMCID: PMC9527078 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Revised: 08/10/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate variables play a critical role in COVID-19’s spread. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the effect of average temperature and relative humidity on the propagation of COVID-19 in Africa's first four affected countries (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, and Ethiopia). As a result, policymakers should develop effective COVID-19 spread control strategies. For each country, using daily data of confirmed cases and weather variables from May 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, generalized linear models (Poisson regression) and general linear models were estimated. According to the findings, the rising average temperature causes COVID-19 daily new cases to increase in South Africa and Ethiopia while decreasing in Morocco and Tunisia. However, in Tunisia, the relative humidity and daily new cases of COVID-19 are positively correlated, while in the other three countries, they are negatively associated.
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Manik S, Mandal M, Pal S. Impact of air pollutants on COVID-19 transmission: a study over different metropolitan cities in India. ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 2022; 25:1-13. [PMID: 35975212 PMCID: PMC9371967 DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02593-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 07/22/2022] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
India is affected strongly by the Coronavirus and within a short period, it becomes the second-highest country based on the infected case. Earlier, there was an indication of the impact of pollution on COVID-19 transmission from a few studies with early COVID-19 data. The study of the effect of pollution on COVID-19 in Indian metropolitan cities is ideal due to the high level of pollution and COVID-19 transmission in these cities. We study the impact of different air pollutants on the spread of coronavirus in different cities in India. A correlation is studied with daily confirmed COVID-19 cases with a daily mean of ozone, particle matter (PM) in size ≤ 10 μ m, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide of different cities. It is found that particulate matter concentration decreases during the nationwide lockdown period and the air quality index improves for different Indian regions. A correlation between the daily confirmed cases with particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10 both) is observed. The air quality index also shows a positive correlation with the daily confirmed cases for most of the metropolitan Indian cities. The correlation study also indicates that different air pollutants may have a role in the spread of the virus.
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Affiliation(s)
- Souvik Manik
- Midnapore City college, Kuturia, Bhadutala, Paschim Medinipur, West Bengal 721129 India
| | - Manoj Mandal
- Midnapore City college, Kuturia, Bhadutala, Paschim Medinipur, West Bengal 721129 India
| | - Sabyasachi Pal
- Midnapore City college, Kuturia, Bhadutala, Paschim Medinipur, West Bengal 721129 India
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Manik S, Mandal M, Pal S, Patra S, Acharya S. Impact of climate on COVID-19 transmission: A study over Indian states. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 211:113110. [PMID: 35307373 PMCID: PMC8927053 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113110] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2021] [Revised: 03/07/2022] [Accepted: 03/08/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan province of China in November 2019 and within a short time, it was declared as a worldwide pandemic by World Health Organisation due to the very fast worldwide spread of the virus. There are a few studies that look for the correlation with infected individuals and different environmental parameters using early data of COVID-19 but there is no study so far that deals with the variation of effective reproduction number and environmental factors. Effective reproduction number is the driving parameter of the spread of a pandemic and it is important to study the effect of various environmental factors on effective reproduction number to understand the effect of those factors on the spread of the virus. We have used time-dependent models to investigate the variation of different time-dependent driving parameters of COVID-19 like effective reproduction number and contact rate using data from India as a test case. India is a large population country that is highly affected due to the COVID-19 pandemic and has a wide span of different temperature and humidity regions and is ideal for such study. We have studied the impact of temperature and humidity on the spread of the virus of different Indian states using time-dependent epidemiological models SIRD, and SEIRD for a long time scale. We have used a linear regression method to look for any dependency between the effective reproduction number with the relative humidity, absolute humidity, and temperature. The effective reproduction number shows a negative correlation with both relative and absolute humidity for most of the Indian states, which are statistically significant. This implies that relative and absolute humidity may have an important role in the variation of effective reproduction number. Most of the states (six out of ten) show a positive correlation while two (out of ten) show a negative correlation between effective reproduction number and average air temperature for both SIRD and SEIRD models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Souvik Manik
- Midnapore City College, Kuturia, Bhadutala, West Bengal, 721129, India
| | - Manoj Mandal
- Midnapore City College, Kuturia, Bhadutala, West Bengal, 721129, India
| | - Sabyasachi Pal
- Midnapore City College, Kuturia, Bhadutala, West Bengal, 721129, India.
| | - Subhradeep Patra
- Midnapore City College, Kuturia, Bhadutala, West Bengal, 721129, India
| | - Suman Acharya
- Midnapore City College, Kuturia, Bhadutala, West Bengal, 721129, India
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Wei Y, Dong Z, Fan W, Xu K, Tang S, Wang Y, Wu F. A narrative review on the role of temperature and humidity in COVID-19: Transmission, persistence, and epidemiological evidence. ECO-ENVIRONMENT & HEALTH (ONLINE) 2022; 1:73-85. [PMID: 38013745 PMCID: PMC9181277 DOI: 10.1016/j.eehl.2022.04.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Revised: 03/30/2022] [Accepted: 04/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Since December 2019, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has become a global pandemic. Understanding the role of environmental conditions is important in impeding the spread of COVID-19. Given that airborne spread and contact transmission are considered the main pathways for the spread of COVID-19, this narrative review first summarized the role of temperature and humidity in the airborne trajectory of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Meanwhile, we reviewed the persistence of the virus in aerosols and on inert surfaces and summarized how the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 is affected by temperature and humidity. We also examined the existing epidemiological evidence and addressed the limitations of these epidemiological studies. Although uncertainty remains, more evidence may support the idea that high temperature is slightly and negatively associated with COVID-19 growth, while the conclusion for humidity is still conflicting. Nonetheless, the spread of COVID-19 appears to have been controlled primarily by government interventions rather than environmental factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuan Wei
- State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
| | - Zhaomin Dong
- School of Space and Environment, Beihang University, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Wenhong Fan
- School of Space and Environment, Beihang University, Beijing 102206, China
- Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data-Based Precision Medicine, Beihang University, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Kaiqiang Xu
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
| | - Song Tang
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
- Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
| | - Ying Wang
- School of Space and Environment, Beihang University, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Fengchang Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
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13
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Rethinking Outdoor Courtyard Spaces on University Campuses to Enhance Health and Wellbeing: The Anti-Virus Built Environment. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14095602] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Responding to the events surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, this study explores how to improve health and wellbeing and reduce infections in outdoor open spaces on university campuses to maximize their potential as a response to future crises. The study identifies the relationship between human behavior (social) and the various physical and environmental elements of these spaces. A case study and mixed-methods approach were undertaken, comprising four modes of inspection: user analysis layer using questionnaires and observations to survey students’ needs and behavior; context analysis layer using space syntax and CFD to examine the space’s physical and environmental conditions; design solutions reflecting an understanding of virus transmission; and a performance analysis layer to test the performance of ‘anti-virus’ courtyards. The findings demonstrated that students are willing to use the open spaces that they used before the pandemic, at the same frequency. This indicates a need to redesign the current spaces to prevent the spread of viruses. The study highlights the social, physical, and environmental implications to be considered in designs for outdoor anti-virus spaces. It provides a comprehensive process for transforming outdoor spaces on university campuses into anti-virus spaces that meet users’ needs. These findings have implications for the designing and retrofitting of open spaces to reduce infection.
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14
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Relationship between Meteorological and Air Quality Parameters and COVID-19 in Casablanca Region, Morocco. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19094989. [PMID: 35564384 PMCID: PMC9100265 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19094989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Revised: 04/13/2022] [Accepted: 04/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between meteorological parameters, air quality and daily COVID-19 transmission in Morocco. We collected daily data of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Casablanca region, as well as meteorological parameters (average temperature, wind, relative humidity, precipitation, duration of insolation) and air quality parameters (CO, NO2, 03, SO2, PM10) during the period of 2 March 2020, to 31 December 2020. The General Additive Model (GAM) was used to assess the impact of these parameters on daily cases of COVID-19. A total of 172,746 confirmed cases were reported in the study period. Positive associations were observed between COVID-19 and wind above 20 m/s and humidity above 80%. However, temperatures above 25° were negatively associated with daily cases of COVID-19. PM10 and O3 had a positive effect on the increase in the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, while precipitation had a borderline effect below 25 mm and a negative effect above this value. The findings in this study suggest that significant associations exist between meteorological factors, air quality pollution (PM10) and the transmission of COVID-19. Our findings may help public health authorities better control the spread of COVID-19.
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15
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Lin R, Wang X, Huang J. The influence of weather conditions on the COVID-19 epidemic: Evidence from 279 prefecture-level panel data in China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 206:112272. [PMID: 34695427 PMCID: PMC8536487 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Revised: 10/20/2021] [Accepted: 10/21/2021] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Studying the influence of weather conditions on the COVID-19 epidemic is an emerging field. However, existing studies in this area tend to utilize time-series data, which have certain limitations and fail to consider individual, social, and economic factors. Therefore, this study aimed to fill this gap. In this paper, we explored the influence of weather conditions on the COVID-19 epidemic using COVID-19-related prefecture-daily panel data collected in mainland China between January 1, 2020, and February 19, 2020. A two-way fixed effect model was applied taking into account factors including public health measures, effective distance to Wuhan, population density, economic development level, health, and medical conditions. We also used a piecewise linear regression to determine the relationship in detail. We found that there is a conditional negative relationship between weather conditions and the epidemic. Each 1 °C rise in mean temperature led to a 0.49% increase in the confirmed cases growth rate when mean temperature was above -7 °C. Similarly, when the relative humidity was greater than 46%, it was negatively correlated with the epidemic, where a 1% increase in relative humidity decreased the rate of confirmed cases by 0.19%. Furthermore, prefecture-level administrative regions, such as Chifeng (included as "warning cities") have more days of "dangerous weather", which is favorable for outbreaks. In addition, we found that the impact of mean temperature is greatest in the east, the influence of relative humidity is most pronounced in the central region, and the significance of weather conditions is more important in the coastal region. Finally, we found that rising diurnal temperatures decreased the negative impact of weather conditions on the spread of COVID-19. We also observed that strict public health measures and high social concern can mitigate the adverse effects of cold and dry weather on the spread of the epidemic. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study which applies the two-way fixed effect model to investigate the influence of weather conditions on the COVID-19 epidemic, takes into account socio-economic factors and draws new conclusions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruofei Lin
- School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, China
| | - Xiaoli Wang
- School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, China
| | - Junpei Huang
- School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, China.
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16
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Yassin MF, Aldashti HA. Stochastic analysis of the relationship between atmospheric variables and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in a hot, arid climate. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2022; 18:500-516. [PMID: 34156152 PMCID: PMC8427079 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.4481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2020] [Revised: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 06/18/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The rapid outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected millions of people all over the world and killed hundreds of thousands. Atmospheric conditions can play a fundamental role in the transmission of a virus. The relationship between several atmospheric variables and the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are therefore investigated in this study, in which the State of Kuwait, which has a hot, arid climate, is considered during free movement (without restriction), partial lockdown (partial restrictions), and full lockdown (full restriction). The relationship between the infection rate, growth rate, and doubling time for SARS-CoV-2 and atmospheric variables are also investigated in this study. Daily data describing the number of COVID-19 cases and atmospheric variables, such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, visibility, and solar radiation, were collected for the period February 24 to May 30, 2020. Stochastic models were employed to analyze how atmospheric variables can affect the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The normal and lognormal probability and cumulative density functions (PDF and CDF) were applied to analyze the relationship between atmospheric variables and COVID-19 cases. The Spearman's rank correlation test and multiple regression model were used to investigate the correlation of the studied variables with the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and to confirm the findings obtained from the stochastic models. The results indicate that relative humidity had a significant negative correlation with the number of COVID-19 cases, whereas positive correlations were observed for cases of infection and temperature, wind speed, and visibility. The infection rate for SARS-CoV-2 is directly proportional to the air temperature, wind speed, and visibility, whereas inversely related to the humidity. The lowest growth rate and longest doubling time of the COVID-19 infection occurred during the full lockdown period. The results in this study may help the World Health Organization (WHO) make specific recommendations about the outbreak of COVID-19 for decision-makers around the world. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:500-516. © 2021 SETAC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohamed F. Yassin
- Environmental Pollution and Climate ProgramKuwait Institute for Research and Science, SafatKuwait
| | - Hassan A. Aldashti
- Department of MeteorologyDirectorate General of Civil Aviation, SafatKuwait
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17
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Olak AS, Santos WS, Susuki AM, Pott-Junior H, V Skalny A, Tinkov AA, Aschner M, Pinese JPP, Urbano MR, Paoliello MMB. Meteorological parameters and cases of COVID-19 in Brazilian cities: an observational study. JOURNAL OF TOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH. PART A 2022; 85:14-28. [PMID: 34474657 DOI: 10.1080/15287394.2021.1969304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Meteorological parameters modulate transmission of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, the causative agent related to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) development. However, findings across the globe have been inconsistent attributed to several confounding factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between reported meteorological parameters from July 1 to October 31, 2020, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 4 Brazilian cities: São Paulo, the largest city with the highest number of cases in Brazil, and the cities with greater number of cases in the state of Parana during the study period (Curitiba, Londrina and Maringa). The assessment of meteorological factors with confirmed COVID-19 cases included atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar irradiation, sunlight, dew point temperature, and total precipitation. The 7- and 15-day moving averages of confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained for each city. Pearson's correlation coefficients showed significant correlations between COVID-19 cases and all meteorological parameters, except for total precipitation, with the strongest correlation with maximum wind speed (0.717, <0.001) in São Paulo. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was associated with wind speed (between ≥0.3381 and <1.173 m/s), atmospheric pressure (<930.5mb), and solar radiation (<17.98e+3). Lower number of cases was observed for wind speed <0.3381 m/s and temperature <23.86°C. Our results encourage the use of meteorological information as a critical component in future risk assessment models.
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Affiliation(s)
- André S Olak
- Department of Architecture and Urbanism; State University of Londrina (Uel), Londrina, PR, Brazil
- Department of Statistics, State University of Londrina (Uel), Londrina, Pr, Brazil
| | - Willian S Santos
- Department of Geoscience, State University of Londrina (Uel), Londrina, PR, Brazil
| | - Aline M Susuki
- Department of Architecture and Urbanism; State University of Londrina (Uel), Londrina, PR, Brazil
| | - Henrique Pott-Junior
- Department of Medicine, Federal University of São Carlos (Ufscar), São Carlos, SP, Brazil
| | - Anatoly V Skalny
- Department of Bioelementology, K.g. Razumovsky Moscow State University of Technologies and Management, Moscow, Russia
- World-Class Research Center "Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare," Im Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow, Russia
| | - Alexey A Tinkov
- World-Class Research Center "Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare," Im Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow, Russia
- IM Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow, Russia
| | - Michael Aschner
- World-Class Research Center "Digital Biodesign and Personalized Healthcare," Im Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University (Sechenov University), Moscow, Russia
- Department of Molecular Pharmacology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
| | - José P P Pinese
- Department of Geoscience, State University of Londrina (Uel), Londrina, PR, Brazil
- Centre of Studies in Geography and Spatial Planning, CEGOT, Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Mariana R Urbano
- Department of Statistics, State University of Londrina (Uel), Londrina, Pr, Brazil
| | - Monica M B Paoliello
- Department of Molecular Pharmacology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, USA
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18
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Air quality during COVID-19 lockdown and its implication toward sustainable development goals. COVID-19 AND THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS 2022. [PMCID: PMC9335066 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-323-91307-2.00008-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Air pollution is directly as well as indirectly linked with several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hence, focused efforts and strategies toward improving the air quality can lead to direct reduction in the adverse impacts on human health and our cities and setting climate mitigation targets. The worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has forced various governments around the world to suspend nonessential activities due to the unavailability of the vaccine. This unprecedented lockdown led to significant decline in major criteria air pollutants—PM2.5, PM10, CO, and NO2—with more than 50% decline in several cities across the world. However, SO2 did not change much over some regions, while O3 has shown some increase. The majority of these changes are well supported by the reduced pollutant emissions, primarily from vehicular sources in urban areas. A slight decline has also been observed in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the lockdowns. The lockdown illustrates the need for a potential shift of anthropogenic activities toward a more sustainable lifestyle for ameliorating air quality and thus paving the pathway to achieve SDGs. The COVID-19-induced lockdown scenario should be exploited to understand future measures to improve air quality and mitigate the adverse health and climate effects. This chapter explores the impact of the national lockdowns on urban air quality across the globe. Learnings from this natural intervention and future policy implications toward improving air quality are further discussed.
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19
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Roshan G, Sarli R, Grab SW. The case of Tehran's urban heat island, Iran: Impacts of urban 'lockdown' associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY 2021; 75:103263. [PMID: 36568531 PMCID: PMC9760287 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2021.103263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2021] [Revised: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 08/11/2021] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
The increasing expansion of urban environments with associated transformation of land-cover has led to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI) in many urbanized regions worldwide. COVID-19 related environmental impacts, through reduced urban activities, is worthy of investigation as it may demonstrate human capacity to manage UHI. We aim to establish the thermal impacts associated with COVID-19 induced urban 'lockdown' from 20 March to 20 April 2020 over Tehran. Areal changes in UHI are assessed through Classification and Regression Trees (CART), measured against background synoptic scale temperature changes over the years 1950-2020. Results indicate that monthly Tmean, Tmax and Tmin values during this time were considerably lower than long-term mean values for the reference period. Although the COVID-19 initiated shutdown led to an identifiable temperature anomaly, we demonstrate that this is not a product of upper atmospheric or synoptic conditions alone. We also show that the cooling effect over Tehran was not spatially uniform, which is likely due to the complexity of land uses such as industrial as opposed to residential. Our findings provide potentially valuable insights and implications for future management of urban heat islands during extreme heat waves that pose a serious threat to human health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gholamreza Roshan
- Department of Geography, Golestan University, Shahid Beheshti, Gorgan 49138-15759, Iran
| | - Reza Sarli
- Department of Geography, Golestan University, Shahid Beheshti, Gorgan 49138-15759, Iran
| | - Stefan W Grab
- School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3, Wits, Johannesburg 2050, South Africa
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20
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Alam MS, Sultana R. Influences of climatic and non-climatic factors on COVID-19 outbreak: A review of existing literature. ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES (AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS) 2021; 5:100255. [PMID: 36816836 PMCID: PMC8383476 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2021.100255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2021] [Revised: 08/05/2021] [Accepted: 08/23/2021] [Indexed: 04/22/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a significant global public health issue resulting from SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2). COVID-19 outbreak approaches an unprecedented challenge for human health, the economy, and societies. The transmission of the COVID-19 is influenced by many factors, including climatic, environmental, socioeconomic, and demographic. This study aimed to investigate the influences of climatic and sociodemographic determinants on COVID-19 transmission. The climatic variables considered herein were air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, air pollution, and cumulative precipitation. Sociodemographic variables included population density, socioeconomic conditions, misinformation, and personal hygiene practices towards the pandemic. Review results indicated that lower temperatures and greater incidence of COVID-19 are reported in a more significant number of studies. Another factor linked to COVID-19 occurrence was the humidity. However, the results were varied; some research reported positive, and others reported negative relationships. In addition, poor air quality, along with strong winds, makes the virus more vulnerable to spreading, leading to a spike in COVID-19 cases. PM2.5, O3, and NO2 also showed a strong correlation with the recent epidemic. The findings on rainfall were inconsistent between studies. Among the non-climatic factors, population density, education, and income were credited as potential determinants for the coronavirus outbreak. Climatic and sociodemographic factors showed a significant correlation on the COVID-19 outbreak. Thus, our review emphasizes the critical importance of considering climatic and non-climatic factors while developing intervention measures. This study's core findings will support the decision-makers in identifying climatic and socioeconomic elements that influence the risks of future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Md Shafiul Alam
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh
| | - Rumana Sultana
- Center for Sustainable Development (CSD), University of Liberal Arts Bangladesh(ULAB), Dhanmondi, Dhaka, Bangladesh
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21
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Benimana TD, Lee N, Jung S, Lee W, Hwang SS. Epidemiological and spatio-temporal characteristics of COVID-19 in Rwanda. GLOBAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2021; 3:100058. [PMID: 34368752 PMCID: PMC8333025 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloepi.2021.100058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2021] [Revised: 07/30/2021] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has taken millions of lives and disrupted living standards at individual, societal, and worldwide levels, causing serious consequences globally. Understanding its epidemic curve and spatio-temporal dynamics is crucial for the development of effective public health plans and responses and the allocation of resources. Thus, we conducted this study to assess the epidemiological dynamics and spatio-temporal patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda. METHODS Using the surveillance package in R software version 4.0.2, we implemented endemic-epidemic multivariate time series models for infectious diseases to analyze COVID-19 data reported by Rwanda Biomedical Center under the Ministry of Health from March 15, 2020 to January 15, 2021. RESULTS The COVID-19 pandemic occurred in two waves in Rwanda and showed a heterogenous spatial distribution across districts. The Rwandan government responded effectively and efficiently through the implementation of various health measures and intervention policies to drastically reduce the transmission of the disease. Analysis of the three components of the model showed that the most affected districts displayed epidemic components within the area, whereas the effect of epidemic components from spatial neighbors were experienced by the districts that surround the most affected districts. The infection followed the disease endemic trend in other districts. CONCLUSION The epidemiological and spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Rwanda show that the implementation of measures and interventions contributed significantly to the decrease in COVID-19 transmission within and between districts. This accentuates the critical call for continued intra- and inter- organization and community engagement nationwide to ensure effective and efficient response to the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Seungpil Jung
- Department of Public Health Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Woojoo Lee
- Department of Public Health Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seung-sik Hwang
- Department of Public Health Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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22
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Halos SH, Al-Dousari A, Anwer GR, Anwer AR. Impact of PM2.5 concentration, weather and population on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Baghdad and Kuwait cities. MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 2021; 8:3625-3634. [PMID: 34725645 PMCID: PMC8552206 DOI: 10.1007/s40808-021-01300-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2021] [Accepted: 09/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health crisis and biggest challenge facing the world. Station measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration in Baghdad and Kuwait during the period January–July 2020 are analyzed as well as assessment of correlation between PM2.5, weather conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed), population density and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. A significant improvement (decrease) has observed during total and partial curfew in PM2.5 at Baghdad by 35%, 12.4%, respectively, from PM2.5 mean during the study period that is less than the WHO recommended PM2.5 level especially in total curfew. This decrease in PM2.5 pollution and people’s mobility in Baghdad at total and partial curfew contributed to decrease injuries and mortality. PM2.5 during total and partial curfew in Kuwait country witnessed increasing by 38.4% and decreasing by 22.3% from the PM2.5 mean, respectively, but still higher than WHO standard level. This increase in PM2.5 at total curfew was related to burning accidents in the oil wells which caused increasing in PM2.5 pollutant and then an increase in number of injuries and mortality during that time. In general during all study period our research found that PM2.5 and wind speed exhibit weak relation with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality but strong relation with increasing temperature and decreasing humidity. The high population density had a good association with increasing daily new cases, mortality due to COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, these factors may be taken into consideration in policy development for the control and prevention of new chains of the Coronavirus pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saadiyah H Halos
- Atmosphere and Space Science Center, Directorate of Space Technology and Communication, Ministry of Science and Technology, Baghdad, Iraq
| | - Ali Al-Dousari
- Crisis Decision Support Program, Environment and Life Sciences Research Center, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, P.O. Box 24885, 13109 Safat, Kuwait
| | | | - Amany R Anwer
- University of Baghdad / Al-Kindy College of Medicine, Baghdad, Iraq
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23
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Khursheed A, Mustafa F, Akhtar A. Investigating the roles of meteorological factors in COVID-19 transmission in Northern Italy. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2021; 28:48459-48470. [PMID: 33907953 PMCID: PMC8079164 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-14038-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
The novel COVID-19 is a highly invasive, pathogenic, and transmittable disease that has stressed the health care sector and hampered global development. Information of other viral respiratory diseases indicates that COVID-19 transmission could be affected by varying weather conditions; however, the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 death counts remains unexplored. By investigating the impact of meteorological factors (absolute humidity, relative humidity, and temperature), this study will contribute both theoretically and practically to the concerned domain of pandemic management to be better prepared to control the spread of the disease. For this study, data is collected from 23 February to 31 March 2020 for Milan, Northern Italy, one of the badly hit regions by COVID-19. The generalized additive model (GAM) is applied, and a nonlinear relationship is examined with penalized spline methods. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for the verification of model results. The results reveal that temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity have a significant but negative relationship with the COVID-19 mortality rate. Therefore, it is possible to postulate that cool and dry environmental conditions promote virus transmission, leading to an increase in COVID-19 death counts. The results may facilitate health care policymakers in developing and implementing effective control measures in a timely and efficient way.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Faisal Mustafa
- UCP Business School, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
- University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - Ayesha Akhtar
- UCP Business School, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
- University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
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24
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Ma Q, Gao J, Zhang W, Wang L, Li M, Shi J, Zhai Y, Sun D, Wang L, Chen B, Jiang S, Zhao J. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of COVID-19 in China: a city-level modeling study. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:816. [PMID: 34391402 PMCID: PMC8363872 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06515-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2021] [Accepted: 07/31/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic. Few studies have been conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 on nationwide city-level in China. Objective To analyze and visualize the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and clustering pattern of COVID-19 cases from 362 cities of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China. Methods A spatiotemporal statistical analysis of COVID-19 cases was carried out by collecting the confirmed COVID-19 cases in mainland China from January 10, 2020 to October 5, 2020. Methods including statistical charts, hotspot analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and Poisson space–time scan statistic were conducted. Results The high incidence stage of China’s COVID-19 epidemic was from January 17 to February 9, 2020 with daily increase rate greater than 7.5%. The hot spot analysis suggested that the cities including Wuhan, Huangshi, Ezhou, Xiaogan, Jingzhou, Huanggang, Xianning, and Xiantao, were the hot spots with statistical significance. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated a moderately correlated pattern of spatial clustering of COVID-19 cases across China in the early phase, with Moran’s I statistic reaching maximum value on January 31, at 0.235 (Z = 12.344, P = 0.001), but the spatial correlation gradually decreased later and showed a discrete trend to a random distribution. Considering both space and time, 19 statistically significant clusters were identified. 63.16% of the clusters occurred from January to February. Larger clusters were located in central and southern China. The most likely cluster (RR = 845.01, P < 0.01) included 6 cities in Hubei province with Wuhan as the centre. Overall, the clusters with larger coverage were in the early stage of the epidemic, while it changed to only gather in a specific city in the later period. The pattern and scope of clusters changed and reduced over time in China. Conclusions Spatio-temporal cluster detection plays a vital role in the exploration of epidemic evolution and early warning of disease outbreaks and recurrences. This study can provide scientific reference for the allocation of medical resources and monitoring potential rebound of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06515-8.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qianqian Ma
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Jinghong Gao
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Wenjie Zhang
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Linlin Wang
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Mingyuan Li
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Jinming Shi
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Yunkai Zhai
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China.,School of Management Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Dongxu Sun
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Lin Wang
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Baozhan Chen
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Shuai Jiang
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China.,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Jie Zhao
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China. .,National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou, China.
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25
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Bonnet E, Bodson O, Le Marcis F, Faye A, Sambieni NE, Fournet F, Boyer F, Coulibaly A, Kadio K, Diongue FB, Ridde V. The COVID-19 pandemic in francophone West Africa: from the first cases to responses in seven countries. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:1490. [PMID: 34340668 PMCID: PMC8327893 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-11529-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In early March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit West Africa. In response, countries in the region quickly set up crisis management committees and implemented drastic measures to stem the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The objective of this article is to analyse the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19 in seven Francophone West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Senegal) as well as the public health measures decided upon during the first 7 months of the pandemic. Methods Our method is based on quantitative and qualitative data from the pooling of information from a COVID-19 data platform and collected by a network of interdisciplinary collaborators present in the seven countries. Descriptive and spatial analyses of quantitative epidemiological data, as well as content analyses of qualitative data on public measures and management committees were performed. Results Attack rates (October 2020) for COVID-19 have ranged from 20 per 100,000 inhabitants (Benin) to more than 94 per 100,000 inhabitants (Senegal). All these countries reacted quickly to the crisis, in some cases before the first reported infection, and implemented public measures in a relatively homogeneous manner. None of the countries implemented country-wide lockdowns, but some implemented partial or local containment measures. At the end of June 2020, countries began to lift certain restrictive measures, sometimes under pressure from the general population or from certain economic sectors. Conclusion Much research on COVID-19 remains to be conducted in West Africa to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and to further examine the state responses to ensure their appropriateness and adaptation to the national contexts. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11529-7.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Bonnet
- Résiliences / PRODIG, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, 32 Avenue Henri Varagnat, 93140, Bondy, France
| | - O Bodson
- Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Liège, Place des Orateurs 3, 4000, Liège, Belgium
| | - F Le Marcis
- Triangle (UMR 5206), ENS de Lyon, TransVIHMI (UMI 233), French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, Lyon, France
| | - A Faye
- Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
| | - N E Sambieni
- Faculty of Letters, Arts and Human Sciences (FLASH) and Laboratoire de recherches sur les dynamiques sociales et le développement local (Lasdel), University of Parakou, Parakou, Benin
| | - F Fournet
- MIVEGEC (Univ Montpellier, IRD, CNRS), French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - F Boyer
- Research Unit "Migration and Society", French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development, Associated with the Study and Research Group on Migration, Spaces and Societies, Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey, Niger
| | - A Coulibaly
- Faculty of Medicine and Odontostomatology, University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies, Bamako, Mali
| | - K Kadio
- Institute for Health Science Research (IRSS), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.,Institute of Research for Development, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - F B Diongue
- Institut de Santé et Développement (ISED), Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
| | - V Ridde
- Centre Population et Développement (Ceped), IRD, French National Research Institute for Sustainable Development and Université de Paris, Inserm ERL 1244, 45 rue des Saints-Pères, 75006, Paris, France. .,Institut de Santé et Développement, Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal.
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26
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Yuan J, Wu Y, Jing W, Liu J, Du M, Wang Y, Liu M. Association between meteorological factors and daily new cases of COVID-19 in 188 countries: A time series analysis. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 780:146538. [PMID: 34030332 PMCID: PMC7986348 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2021] [Revised: 03/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/12/2021] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
By 31 December 2020, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had been prevalent worldwide for one year, and most countries had experienced a complete seasonal cycle. The role of the climate and environment are essential factors to consider in transmission. We explored the association between global meteorological conditions (including mean temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and diurnal temperature range) and new cases of COVID-19 in the whole past year. We assessed the relative risk of meteorological factors to the onset of COVID-19 by using generalized additive models (GAM) and further analyzed the hysteresis effects of meteorological factors using the Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). Our findings revealed that the mean temperature, wind speed and relative humidity were negatively correlated with daily new cases of COVID-19, and the diurnal temperature range was positively correlated with daily new cases of COVID-19. These relationships were more apparent when the temperature and relative humidity were lower than their average value (21.07°Cand 66.83%). The wind speed and diurnal temperature range were higher than the average value(3.07 m/s and 9.53 °C). The maximum RR of mean temperature was 1.30 under -23°C at lag ten days, the minimum RR of wind speed was 0.29 under 12m/s at lag 24 days, the maximum RR of range of temperature was 2.21 under 28 °C at lag 24 days, the maximum RR of relative humidity was 1.35 under 4% at lag 0 days. After a subgroup analysis of the countries included in the study, the results were still robust. As the Northern Hemisphere enters winter, the risk of global covid-19 remains high. Some countries have ushered in a new round of COVID-19 epidemic. Thus, active measures must be taken to control the source of infection, block transmission and prevent further spread of COVID-19 in winter.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Yuan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Yu Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Wenzhan Jing
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Jue Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Min Du
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Yaping Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Min Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No. 38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
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Anand U, Jakhmola S, Indari O, Jha HC, Chen ZS, Tripathi V, Pérez de la Lastra JM. Potential Therapeutic Targets and Vaccine Development for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Pandemic Management: A Review on the Recent Update. Front Immunol 2021; 12:658519. [PMID: 34276652 PMCID: PMC8278575 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2021.658519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly pathogenic novel virus that has caused a massive pandemic called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. Wuhan, a city in China became the epicenter of the outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019. The disease was declared a pandemic globally by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020. SARS-CoV-2 is a beta CoV of the Coronaviridae family which usually causes respiratory symptoms that resemble common cold. Multiple countries have experienced multiple waves of the disease and scientific experts are consistently working to find answers to several unresolved questions, with the aim to find the most suitable ways to contain the virus. Furthermore, potential therapeutic strategies and vaccine development for COVID-19 management are also considered. Currently, substantial efforts have been made to develop successful and safe treatments and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Some vaccines, such as inactivated vaccines, nucleic acid-based, and vector-based vaccines, have entered phase 3 clinical trials. Additionally, diverse small molecule drugs, peptides and antibodies are being developed to treat COVID-19. We present here an overview of the virus interaction with the host and environment and anti-CoV therapeutic strategies; including vaccines and other methodologies, designed for prophylaxis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection with the hope that this integrative analysis could help develop novel therapeutic approaches against COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uttpal Anand
- Department of Life Sciences, National Institute for Biotechnology in the Negev, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, Israel
| | - Shweta Jakhmola
- Discipline of Biosciences and Biomedical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India
| | - Omkar Indari
- Discipline of Biosciences and Biomedical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India
| | - Hem Chandra Jha
- Discipline of Biosciences and Biomedical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India
| | - Zhe-Sheng Chen
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences, St. John’s University, Queens, NY, United States
| | - Vijay Tripathi
- Department of Molecular and Cellular Engineering, Jacob Institute of Biotechnology and Bioengineering, Sam Higginbottom University of Agriculture, Technology and Sciences, Prayagraj, India
| | - José M. Pérez de la Lastra
- Instituto de Productos Naturales y Agrobiología (IPNA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones científicas (CSIS), Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain
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28
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Weather Variability and COVID-19 Transmission: A Review of Recent Research. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18020396. [PMID: 33419216 PMCID: PMC7825623 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18020396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2020] [Revised: 01/04/2021] [Accepted: 01/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Weather and climate play a significant role in infectious disease transmission, through changes to transmission dynamics, host susceptibility and virus survival in the environment. Exploring the association of weather variables and COVID-19 transmission is vital in understanding the potential for seasonality and future outbreaks and developing early warning systems. Previous research examined the effects of weather on COVID-19, but the findings appeared inconsistent. This review aims to summarize the currently available literature on the association between weather and COVID-19 incidence and provide possible suggestions for developing weather-based early warning system for COVID-19 transmission. Studies eligible for inclusion used ecological methods to evaluate associations between weather (i.e., temperature, humidity, wind speed and rainfall) and COVID-19 transmission. The review showed that temperature was reported as significant in the greatest number of studies, with COVID-19 incidence increasing as temperature decreased and the highest incidence reported in the temperature range of 0–17 °C. Humidity was also significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence, though the reported results were mixed, with studies reporting positive and negative correlation. A significant interaction between humidity and temperature was also reported. Wind speed and rainfall results were not consistent across studies. Weather variables including temperature and humidity can contribute to increased transmission of COVID-19, particularly in winter conditions through increased host susceptibility and viability of the virus. While there is less indication of an association with wind speed and rainfall, these may contribute to behavioral changes that decrease exposure and risk of infection. Understanding the implications of associations with weather variables and seasonal variations for monitoring and control of future outbreaks is essential for early warning systems.
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29
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Rehman Y, Rehman N. Association of climatic factors with COVID-19 in Pakistan. AIMS Public Health 2020; 7:854-868. [PMID: 33294487 PMCID: PMC7719562 DOI: 10.3934/publichealth.2020066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2020] [Accepted: 11/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Environmental factors such as wind, temperature, humidity, and sun exposure are known to affect influenza and viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) transmissions. COVID-19 is a new pandemic with very little information available about its transmission and association with environmental factors. The goal of this paper is to explore the association of environmental factors on daily incidence rate, mortality rate, and recoveries of COVID-19. METHODS The environmental data for humidity, temperature, wind, and sun exposure were recorded from metrological websites and COVID-19 data such as the daily incidence rate, death rate, and daily recovery were extracted from the government's official website available to the general public. The analysis for each outcome was adjusted for factors such as lock down status, nationwide events, and the number of daily tests performed. Analysis was completed with negative binominal regression log link using generalised linear modelling. RESULTS Daily temperature, sun exposure, wind, and humidity were not significantly associated with daily incidence rate. Temperature and nationwide social gatherings, although non-significant, showed trends towards a higher chance of incidence. An increase in the number of daily testing was significantly associated with higher COVID-19 incidences (effect size ranged from 2.17-9.96). No factors were significantly associated with daily death rates. Except for the province of Balochistan, a lower daily temperature was associated with a significantly higher daily recovery rate. DISCUSSION Environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, and daily sun exposure were not consistently associated with COVID-19 incidence, death rates, or recovery. More policing about precautionary measures and ensuring diagnostic testing and accuracy are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yasir Rehman
- Canadian Academy of Osteopathy, 66 Ottawa Street North, Canada
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