Race and stroke in an atrial fibrillation inception cohort: Findings from the Penn Atrial Fibrillation Free study

A machine learning-based predictive model for the in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common among intensive care unit (ICU) patients and significantly raises the in-hospital mortality rate. Existing scoring systems or models have limited predictive capabilities for AF patients in ICU. Our study developed and validated machine learning models to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV dataset and eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) were analyzed. Among ten classifiers compared, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) showed better performance in predicting all-cause mortality in AF patients. A compact model with 15 features was developed and validated. Both the all variable and compact models exhibited excellent performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 1(95%confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.0) in the training set. In the MIMIC-IV testing set, the AUCs of the all variable and compact models were 0.978 (95% CI: 0.973-0.982) and 0.977 (95% CI: 0.972-0.982), respectively. In the external validation set, the AUCs of all variable and compact models were 0.825 (95% CI: 0.815-0.834) and 0.807 (95% CI: 0.796-0.817), respectively.

CONCLUSION

An AdaBoost-based predictive model was subjected to internal and external validation, highlighting its strong predictive capacity for assessing the risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU patients with AF.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Atrial fibrillation: primary prevention, secondary prevention, and prevention of thromboembolic complications: part 1

Atrial fibrillation (AF), is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. It was once thought to be benign as long as the ventricular rate was controlled, however, AF is associated with significant cardiac morbidity and mortality. Increasing life expectancy driven by improved health care and decreased fertility rates has, in most of the world, resulted in the population aged ≥65 years growing more rapidly than the overall population. As the population ages, projections suggest that the burden of AF may increase more than 60% by 2050. Although considerable progress has been made in the treatment and management of AF, primary prevention, secondary prevention, and prevention of thromboembolic complications remain a work in progress. This narrative review was facilitated by a MEDLINE search to identify peer-reviewed clinical trials, randomized controlled trials, meta-analyses, and other clinically relevant studies. The search was limited to English-language reports published between 1950 and 2021. Atrial fibrillation was searched via the terms primary prevention, hyperthyroidism, Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, catheter ablation, surgical ablation, hybrid ablation, stroke prevention, anticoagulation, left atrial occlusion and atrial excision. Google and Google scholar as well as bibliographies of identified articles were reviewed for additional references. In these two manuscripts, we discuss the current strategies available to prevent AF, then compare noninvasive and invasive treatment strategies to diminish AF recurrence. In addition, we examine the pharmacological, percutaneous device and surgical approaches to prevent stroke as well as other types of thromboembolic events.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Novel methodology for the evaluation of symptoms reported by patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: Application of natural language processing to electronic medical records data

INTRODUCTION

Understanding symptom patterns in atrial fibrillation (AF) can help in disease management. We report on the application of natural language processing (NLP) to electronic medical records (EMRs) to capture symptom reports in patients with newly diagnosed (incident) AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This observational retrospective study included adult patients with an index diagnosis of incident AF during January 1, 2016 through June 30, 2018, in the Optum datasets. The baseline and follow-up periods were 1 year before/after the index date, respectively. The primary objective was identification of the following predefined symptom reports: dyspnea or shortness of breath; syncope, presyncope, lightheadedness, or dizziness; chest pain; fatigue; and palpitations. In an exploratory analysis, the incidence rates of symptom reports and cardiovascular hospitalization were assessed in propensity-matched patient cohorts with incident AF receiving first-line dronedarone or sotalol. Among 30 447 patients with an index AF diagnosis, the NLP algorithm identified at least 1 predefined symptom in 9734 (31.9%) patients. The incidence rate of symptom reports was highest at 0-3 months post-diagnosis and lower at >3-6 and >6-12 months (pre-defined timepoints). Across all time periods, the most common symptoms were dyspnea or shortness of breath, followed by syncope, presyncope, lightheadedness, or dizziness. Similar temporal patterns of symptom reports were observed among patients with prescriptions for dronedarone or sotalol as first-line treatment.

CONCLUSION

This study illustrates that NLP can be applied to EMR data to characterize symptom reports in patients with incident AF, and the potential for these methods to inform comparative effectiveness.

Presence of Geriatric Conditions Is Prognostic of Major Bleeding in Older Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: a Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In older patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), physical, cognitive, and psychosocial limitations are prevalent. The prognostic value of these conditions for major bleeding is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether geriatric conditions are prospectively associated with major bleeding in older patients with AF on anticoagulation.

DESIGN

Multicenter cohort study with 2-year follow-up from 2016 to 2020 in Massachusetts and Georgia from cardiology, electrophysiology, and primary care clinics.

PARTICIPANTS

Diagnosed with AF, age 65 years or older, CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2 or higher, and taking oral anticoagulant (n=1,064). A total of 6507 individuals were screened.

MAIN MEASURES

A six-component geriatric assessment of frailty, cognitive function, social support, depressive symptoms, vision, and hearing. Main outcome was major bleeding adjudicated by a physician panel.

KEY RESULTS

At baseline, participants were, on average, 75.5 years old and 49% were women. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 4.5 and the mean HAS-BLED score was 3.3. During 2.0 (± 0.4) years of follow-up, 95 (8.9%) participants developed an episode of major bleeding. After adjusting for key covariates and accounting for competing risk from death, cognitive impairment (hazard ratio [HR] 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-2.56) and frailty (HR 2.77, 95% CI 1.38-5.58) were significantly associated with the development of major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

In older patients with AF taking anticoagulants, cognitive impairment and frailty were independently associated with major bleeding.

Racial Disparity in Referral for Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation at a Single Integrated Health System

Background Guidelines recommend catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AFCA) as an option for rhythm control. Studies have shown that Black patients are less likely to undergo AFCA compared with White patients. We investigated whether differences in referral patterns play a role in this observed disparity. Methods and Results Using an integrated repository from the electronic medical record at Northwestern Medicine, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of outpatients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation. Baseline characteristics by race and ethnicity were compared. Logistic regression models adjusted for socioeconomic and health factors were constructed to determine the association between race and ethnicity and binary dependent variables including referrals and visits to general cardiology and cardiac electrophysiology (EP) and AFCA. Of 5445 patients analyzed, 4652 were non-Hispanic White (NHW) and 793 were non-Hispanic Black (NHB). In adjusted models, NHB patients initially diagnosed with atrial fibrillation in internal medicine and primary care had a significantly greater odds of referral to general cardiology; among all patients in the cohort, there was no significant difference in the odds of referral to EP between NHB and NHW patients; and there were no differences in the odds of completing a visit in general cardiology or EP. Among patients completing an EP visit, NHB patients were less likely to undergo AFCA (odds ratio, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.40-0.98], P=0.040). Conclusions Similar referral rates to general cardiology and EP were observed between NHB and NHW patients. Despite this, NHB patients were less likely to undergo AFCA.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Racial and Urban-Rural Difference in the Frequency of Ischemic Stroke as Initial Manifestation of Atrial Fibrillation

Objective: Atrial fibrillation (AF) may remain undiagnosed until the development of complications. We aimed to examine the epidemiology and racial/ethnic and rural/urban differences in the frequency of newly diagnosed AF manifesting as ischemic stroke in a nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries.

Methods: We used a 5% random sample of Medicare claims to identify patients newly diagnosed with AF in 2016. The primary dependent variable was stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) in the 7 days prior to the first AF diagnosis, i.e., stroke or TIA as the initial manifestation of AF. We constructed a multivariable logistic regression to quantify the association between race/ethnicity, urban/rural residence, and the primary dependent variable.

Results: Among 39,409 patients newly diagnosed with AF (mean age 77 ± 10 years; 58% women; 7.2% Black, 87.8% White, 5.1% others), 2,819 (7.2%) had ischemic stroke or TIA in the 7 days prior to AF diagnosis. Black patients (adjusted OR [95% CI]: 1.21 [1.05, 1.40], vs. White) and urban residents (1.21 [1.08, 1.35], vs. rural) were at increased risk of stroke as the initial manifestation of AF. Racial differences were larger among patients aged ≥75 years, with adjusted ORs of 1.43 (1.19, 1.73) for Black vs. White patients, but non-significant for those aged <75 (P for interaction = 0.03).

Conclusion: We observed significant and important differences in the risk of stroke as initial manifestation of AF between White and Black patients and between rural and urban residents. Our results suggest potential disparities in the identification AF across race/ethnicity groups and urban/rural areas.

A cross-sectional analysis of racial differences in accelerated aging and cognitive function among patients with atrial fibrillation: The SAGE-AF study: Forrester, Accelerated aging and cognitive function

BACKGROUND

Non-Whites are more likely to suffer from cognitive impairment and complications of atrial fibrillation (AF) than Whites, though Whites are more likely to be diagnosed with AF. We examined whether non-Whites with AF are biologically older than Whites with AF and whether accelerated biological aging is associated with cognitive functioning.

METHODS

We used baseline data from the ongoing Systematic Assessment of Geriatric Elements in Atrial Fibrillation prospective cohort study, collected 2016-2020 across ambulatory care practices in Massachusetts and Georgia. Of 1244 enrolled, 974 participants with full biological data were included in the present analysis. Accelerated aging (AccA) was calculated based on a combination of biomarkers associated with age and physiological "wear and tear."

FINDINGS

The main outcome was score on Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Non-Whites had 2.9 years more AccA than Whites and higher AccA was associated with a lower MoCA score among both Whites (-0.06, 95% CI: -0.10, -0.03) and non-Whites (-0.14, 95% CI: -0.27, 0.02). This association was significantly greater among non-whites (-0.11, 95% CI: -0.20, -0.01).

INTERPRETATION

Non-White AF patients are functionally "older" than their White counterparts and experience a stronger deleterious association between AccA and cognition. These findings underscore the importance of taking functional age into account when treating patients with AF, particularly non-White patients, to enhance treatment and improve AF outcomes.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Stroke, Timing of Atrial Fibrillation Diagnosis, and Risk of Death

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognosis of patients with ischemic stroke according to the timing of an atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis, we created an inception cohort of incident stroke events and compared the risk of death between patients with stroke with (1) sinus rhythm, (2) known AF (KAF), and (3) AF diagnosed after stroke (AFDAS).

METHODS

We used the Penn AF Free study to create an inception cohort of patients with incident stroke. Mortality events were identified after linkage with the National Death Index through June 30, 2017. We also evaluated initiation of anticoagulants and antiplatelets across the study duration. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated associations between stroke subtypes and death.

RESULTS

We identified 1,489 individuals who developed an incident ischemic stroke event: 985 did not develop AF at any point during the study period, 215 had KAF before stroke, 160 had AF detected ≤6 months after stroke, and 129 had AF detected >6 months after stroke. After a median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range 1.9-6.8), 686 deaths occurred. The annualized mortality rate was 8.8% in the stroke, no AF group; 12.2% in the KAF group; 15.8% in the AFDAS ≤6 months group; and 12.7% in the AFDAS >6 months group. Patients in the AFDAS ≤6 months group had the highest independent risk of all-cause mortality even after multivariable adjustment for demographics, clinical risk factors, and the use of antithrombotic therapies (hazard ratio 1.62 [1.22-2.14]). Compared to the stroke, no AF group, those with KAF had a higher mortality risk that was rendered nonsignificant after adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

The AFDAS group had the highest risk of death, which was not explained by comorbidities or use of antithrombotic therapies.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2020 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports on the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2020 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, metrics to assess and monitor healthy diets, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, a focus on the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors, implementation strategies, and implications of the American Heart Association's 2020 Impact Goals.

RESULTS

Each of the 26 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, healthcare administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.