Probability of a zoonotic spillover with seasonal variation

A One Health framework for exploring zoonotic interactions demonstrated through a case study

The eco-epidemiology of zoonoses is often oversimplified to host-pathogen interactions while findings derived from global datasets are rarely directly transferable to smaller-scale contexts. Through a systematic literature search, we compiled a dataset of naturally occurring zoonotic interactions in Austria, spanning 1975-2022. We introduce the concept of zoonotic web to describe the complex relationships between zoonotic agents, their hosts, vectors, food, and environmental sources. The zoonotic web was explored through network analysis. After controlling for research effort, we demonstrate that, within the projected unipartite source-source network of zoonotic agent sharing, the most influential zoonotic sources are human, cattle, chicken, and some meat products. Analysis of the One Health 3-cliques (triangular sets of nodes representing human, animal, and environment) confirms the increased probability of zoonotic spillover at human-cattle and human-food interfaces. We characterise six communities of zoonotic agent sharing, which assembly patterns are likely driven by highly connected infectious agents in the zoonotic web, proximity to human, and anthropogenic activities. Additionally, we report a frequency of emerging zoonotic diseases in Austria of one every six years. Here, we present a flexible network-based approach that offers insights into zoonotic transmission chains, facilitating the development of locally-relevant One Health strategies against zoonoses.

Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern

The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.

Can plastic pollution drive the emergence and dissemination of novel zoonotic diseases?

As the volume of plastic in the environment increases, so too does human interactions with plastic pollution. Similarly, domestic, feral, and wild animals are increasingly interacting with plastic pollution, highlighting the potential for contamination of plastic wastes with animal faeces, urine, saliva, and blood. Substantial evidence indicates that once in the environment, plastics rapidly become colonised by microbial biofilm (the so-called 'plastisphere), which often includes potentially harmful microbial pathogens (including pathogens that are zoonotic in nature). Climate change, increased urbanisation, and the intensification of agriculture, mean that the three-way interactions between humans, animals, and plastic pollution are becoming more frequent, which is significant as almost 60% of emerging human infectious diseases during the last century have been zoonotic. Here, we critically review the potential for contaminated environmental plastics to facilitate the evolution of novel pathogenic strains of microorganisms, and the subsequent role of plastic pollution in the cyclical dissemination of zoonotic pathogens. As the interactions between humans, animals, and plastic pollution continues to grow, and the volume of plastics entering the environment increases, there is clearly an urgent need to better understand the role of plastic waste in facilitating zoonotic pathogen evolution and dissemination, and the effect this can have on environmental and human health.

Implementing a provisional overarching intervention for COVID-19 monitoring and control in the Brazil-Colombia-Peru frontier

Introduction

he challenge was to provide comprehensive health resources to a remote and underserved population living in the Brazil-Colombia-Peru border, amid the most disruptive global crisis of the century.

Methods

In August 2021, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz Amazonia (FIOCRUZ Amazônia) and partner collaborators implemented an overarching provisional program for SARS-CoV-2 detection and lineages characterization, training of laboratory personnel and healthcare providers, donation of diagnostic supplies and personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 vaccination. The expedition was conducted at the Port of Tabatinga, a busy terminal with an intense flux of people arriving and departing in boats of all sizes, located in the Amazon River basin. Local government, non-profit organizations, private companies, and other stakeholders supported the intervention.

Results

The expedition was accomplished in a convergence point, where migrant workers, traders, army personnel, people living in urban areas, and people from small villages living in riversides and indigenous territories are in close and frequent contact, with widespread cross-border movement. Using a boat as a provisional lab and storage facility, the intervention provided clinical and laboratory monitoring for 891 participants; vaccination for 536 individuals; personal protective equipment for 200 healthcare providers; diagnostic supplies for 1,000 COVID-19 rapid tests; training for 42 community health agents on personal protection, rapid test execution, and pulse oximeter management; and hands-on training for four lab technicians on molecular diagnosis.

Discussion

Our experience demonstrates that multilateral initiatives can counterweigh the scarcity of health resources in underserved regions. Moreover, provisional programs can have a long-lasting effect if investments are also provided for local capacity building.

Dynamics of Feline Coronavirus and FIP: A Compartmental Modeling Approach

The investigation of infectious agents invading human and nonhuman populations represents a rich research domain within the framework of mathematical biology, captivating the interest of scientists across various disciplines. In this work, we examine the endemic equilibrium of feline coronavirus and feline infectious peritonitis by using a modified susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemiological model. We incorporate the concept of mutations from FCoV to FIP to enrich our analysis. We establish that the model, when subjected to reasonable parameter ranges, supports an endemic equilibrium wherein the FCoV group dominates. To demonstrate the stability of the equilibria under typical parameters and initial conditions, we employ the model SCF presented by Dobie in 2022 (Dobie, 2022). We ascertain that the equilibrium values reside within the interior domains of stability. Additionally, we displayed perturbed solutions to enhance our understanding. Remarkably, our findings align qualitatively with existing literature, which reports the prevalence of seropositivity to FCoV among stray cats (Tekelioglu et al. 2015, Oğuzoğlu et al. 2010, Pratelli 2008, Arshad et al. 2004).

Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease

The ecology and life history of wild animals influences their potential to harbour infectious disease. This observation has motivated studies identifying empirical relationships between traits of wild animals and historical patterns of spillover and emergence into humans. Although these studies have identified compelling broad-scale patterns, they are generally agnostic with respect to underlying mechanisms. Here, we develop mathematical models that couple reservoir population ecology with viral epidemiology and evolution to clarify existing verbal arguments and pinpoint the conditions that favour spillover and emergence. Our results support the idea that average lifespan influences the likelihood of an animal serving as a reservoir for human infectious disease. At the same time, however, our results show that the magnitude of this effect is sensitive to the rate of viral mutation. Our results also demonstrate that viral pathogens causing persistent infections or a transient immune response within the reservoir are more likely to fuel emergence. Genetically explicit stochastic simulations enrich these mathematical results by identifying relationships between the genetic basis of transmission and the risk of spillover and emergence. Together, our results clarify the scope of applicability for existing hypotheses and refine our understanding of emergence risk.