A new risk score predicting 1- and 5-year mortality following acute myocardial infarction

Accuracy of death risk prediction models for acute coronary syndrome patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

This study systematically evaluates the accuracy of several death risk prediction models for patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) through evidence-based methods. We identify the most accurate and effective ACS death risk prediction model and provide an evidence-based basis for clinical healthcare personnel to evaluate their choice of death risk prediction model for ACS patients.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

An evidence-based approach was used to study the current death risk prediction model for ACS. First, a literature search was carried out using computer-based and manual searching. The literature databases searched include Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science, WanFang Data, CNKI, VPCS, and SinoMed. The search period was limited to 2009 to 2022. Screening, quality evaluation and data extraction were carried out for the included articles. The PROBAST was used to conduct a migration risk assessment. RevMan 5.3 and Meta-DiSc 1.4 were used in combination to determine the model effect sizes. A descriptive analysis was conducted for the data that could not be meta-analyzed.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

A total of 8277 articles were initially included in this study. After screening, 25 articles were finally included, involving 11 different risk prediction models. A total of 306,390 patients with ACS were included of which 158,080 (51.6%) were male and 147,793 (48.4%) were female. The patients stemmed from 11 different countries (e.g., China, the USA, Spain, the UK, etc.). The total number of deaths was 23,601. The sensitivity of the GRACE risk prediction model was 0.78, with a specificity of 0.76 and an AUC value of 0.86. The sensitivity of the CAMI risk prediction model was 0.78, with a specificity of 0.70 and an AUC value of 0.85. The sensitivity of the TIMI risk prediction model was 0.51, with a specificity of 0.81, and an AUC value of 0.64. The sensitivity of the REMS risk prediction model was 0.78, with a specificity of 0.46 and an AUC value of 0.41. Eight different risk prediction models (EPICOR, CRUSADE, SAMI, GWTG, LNS, SYNTAX II, APACHE II) that could not be combined with the effect size were also included, with sensitivities ranging from 0.77-0.95, specificities ranging from 0.22-0.99, and AUC values ranging from 0.71-0.92.

CONCLUSIONS

The GRACE and CAMI risk prediction models demonstrate good accuracy for evaluating the death risk of ACS patients. The accuracy of the TIMI risk prediction model is similar to that of the REMS risk prediction model. The APACHE II, SYNTAX II, EPICOR, and CAMI risk prediction models also show good accuracy for estimating the risk of death in ACS patients, although further validation is needed due to limited evidence. For improved predictive accuracy and to help advance medical interventions, the author recommends that clinical medical staff use the GRACE model to predict the death risk of ACS patients.

An empirical approach for life expectancy estimation based on survival analysis among a post-acute myocardial infarction population

Background

Practical communication of prognosis is pertinent in the clinical setting. Survival analysis techniques are standardly used in cohort studies; however, their results are not straightforward for interpretation as compared to the graspable notion of life expectancy (LE). The present study empirically examines the relationship between Cox regression coefficients (HRs), which reflect the relative risk of the investigated risk factors for mortality, and years of potential life lost (YPLL) values after acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

This retrospective population-based study included patients aged 40-80 years, who survived AMI hospitalization from January 1, 2002, to October 25, 2017. A survival analysis approach assessed relationships between variables and the risk for all-cause mortality in an up to 21-year follow-up period. The total score was calculated for each patient as the summation of the Cox regression coefficients (AdjHRs) values. Individual LE and YPLL were calculated. YPLL was assessed as a function of the total score.

Results

The cohort (n = 6316, age 63.0 ± 10.5 years, 73.4 % males) was randomly split into training (n = 4243) and validation (n = 2073) datasets. Sixteen main clinical risk factors for mortality were explored (total score of 0-14.2 points). After adjustment for age, sex and nationality, a one-point increase in the total score was associated with YPLL of ∼one year. A goodness-of-fit of the prediction model found 0.624 and 0.585 for the training and validation datasets respectively.

Conclusions

This functional derivation for converting coefficients of survival analysis into the comprehensible form of YPLL/LE allows for practical prognostic calculation and communication.

[Prognostic impact of cardiovascular risk factors in patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular prevention measures place the emphasis on controlling cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF). However, the most recent studies provide disappointing data, the impact of which remains to be determined. The objective of this study was to analyse the impact that the different CVRFs, and their degree of control, have on the prognosis of patients after acute coronary syndrome.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Epidemiological, pharmacological, and CVRF control data were collected from 1,689 consecutive patients admitted from 2018 to 2020 for acute coronary syndrome to a tertiary hospital. Finally, the rate of major adverse cardiovascular events was calculated.

RESULTS

The patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome were predominantly men, with body mass index>25Kg/m2, smokers (or former smokers) and with poor CVRF control (50% for hypertension and diabetes and 35% for dyslipidaemia), especially those patients with a personal history of ischaemic heart disease. An underutilisation of useful drugs for CVRF control was found. A directly proportional relationship was observed between the number of CVRFs (or their poor control) and the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events at 2 years, hypertension being the factor with the greatest cardiovascular impact. The SARS-CoV-2 lockdown worsened the degree of CVRF control and cardiovascular prognosis.

CONCLUSION

There is still room for improvement in the control of CVRF, which would translate into a prognostic benefit for patients with ischaemic heart disease. The implementation of cardiovascular prevention campaigns seems essential.

The Association between Acute Myocardial Infarction-Related Outcomes and the Ramadan Period: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

Fasting throughout the Muslim month of Ramadan may impact cardiovascular health. This study examines the association between the Ramadan period and acute myocardial infarction (AMI)-related outcomes among a Muslim population. The data were retrospectively extracted from a tertiary hospital (Beer-Sheva, Israel) database from 2002–2017, evaluating Muslim patients who endured AMI. The study periods for each year were: one month preceding Ramadan (reference period (RP)), the month of Ramadan, and two months thereafter (1840 days in total). A comparison of adjusted incidence rates between the study periods was performed using generalized linear models; one-month post-AMI mortality data were compared using a generalized estimating equation. Out of 5848 AMI hospitalizations, 877 of the patients were Muslims. No difference in AMI incidence between the Ramadan and RP was found (p = 0.893). However, in the one-month post-Ramadan period, AMI incidence demonstrably increased (AdjIRR = 3.068, p = 0.018) compared to the RP. Additionally, the highest risk of mortality was observed among the patients that underwent AMI in the one-month post-Ramadan period (AdjOR = 1.977, p = 0.004) compared to the RP. The subgroup analyses found Ramadan to differentially correlate with AMI mortality with respect to smoking, age, sex, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, suggesting the Ramadan period is a risk factor for adverse AMI-related outcomes among select Muslim patients.

Development and validation of a novel risk score to predict 5-year mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction in China: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The disease burden from ischaemic heart disease remains heavy in the Chinese population. Traditional risk scores for estimating long-term mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have been developed without sufficiently considering advances in interventional procedures and medication. The goal of this study was to develop a risk score comprising clinical parameters and intervention advances at hospital admission to assess 5-year mortality in AMI patients in a Chinese population.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective observational study on 2,722 AMI patients between January 2013 and December 2017. Of these patients, 1,471 patients from Changsha city, Hunan Province, China were assigned to the development cohort, and 1,251 patients from Xiangtan city, Hunan Province, China, were assigned to the validation cohort. Forty-five candidate variables assessed at admission were screened using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, stepwise backward regression, and Cox regression methods to construct the C2ABS2-GLPK score, which was graded and stratified using a nomogram and X-tile. The score was internally and externally validated. The C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess discrimination and calibration, respectively.

RESULTS

From the 45 candidate variables obtained at admission, 10 potential predictors, namely, including Creatinine, experience of Cardiac arrest, Age, N-terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide, a history of Stroke, Statins therapy, fasting blood Glucose, Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter, Percutaneous coronary intervention and Killip classification were identified as having a close association with 5-year mortality in patients with AMI and collectively termed the C2ABS2-GLPK score. The score had good discrimination (C-statistic = 0.811, 95% confidence intervals (CI) [0.786-0.836]) and calibration (calibration slope = 0.988) in the development cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score performed well in both discrimination (C-statistic = 0.787, 95% CI [0.756-0.818]) and calibration (calibration slope = 0.976). The patients were stratified into low- (≤148), medium- (149 to 218) and high-risk (≥219) categories according to the C2ABS2-GLPK score. The predictive performance of the score was also validated in all subpopulations of both cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The C2ABS2-GLPK score is a Chinese population-based risk assessment tool to predict 5-year mortality in AMI patients based on 10 variables that are routinely assessed at admission. This score can assist physicians in stratifying high-risk patients and optimizing emergency medical interventions to improve long-term survival in patients with AMI.

Heterogenicity of diabetes as a risk factor for all-cause mortality after acute myocardial infarction: Age and sex impact

AIM

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a risk factor for mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We studied the impact of T2DM related to sex and age on post-AMI long-term mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective study included post-AMI patients. Data were obtained from electronic medical records. We defined the study groups by T2DM, stratified by age-sex.

OUTCOME

up-to-10 years post-discharge all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

16,168 patients were analyzed, 40.3% had T2DM. Ten-year mortality rates were 50.3% with T2DM vs. 33.1% without T2DM, adjHR = 1.622 (p < 0.001). Females (adjHR = 1.085, p = 0.052) and increased age (adjHR = 1.056 for one-year increase, p < 0.001) were associated with a higher risk of mortality (borderline statistical significance for sex). The relationship between T2DM and mortality was stronger in females than in males at < 50 and 60-69 years (p-for-interaction 0.025 and 0.009 respectively), but not for other age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The study implies heterogeneity in the impact of T2DM on mortality of post-AMI patients, being greater among young patients, particularly females, and no significant impact in octogenarians. That implies that young women with T2DM should have advanced measures for early detection of coronary artery disease and tight control of cardiovascular risk factors to lower the propensity to develop AMI.

Worse outcomes of ACS patients without versus with traditional cardiovascular risk factors

INTRODUCTION

Up to 20% of patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) have no traditional cardiovascular risk-factors (RFs). Data regarding the determinants, management, and outcomes of these patients are scarce.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the management, outcomes, and time-dependent changes of ACS patients without RFs.

METHODS

Evaluation of clinical characteristics, management strategies, and outcomes as well as time-dependent changes [by 3 time periods: early (2000-2006), mid (2008-2013), and late (2016-2018)] of ACS patients without RFs (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, family history of ischemic heart disease, and smoking) or known coronary artery disease, enrolled in the biennial ACS Israeli Surveys (ACSIS) between 2000 and 2018. We compared ACS patients without RFs (no-RF group) to those with ≥1 RFs (RF group).

RESULTS

Overall, 554/9,683 (5.7%) eligible ACS patients did not have any RFs [median age 63 (IQR 52-76) years, 25% females]. The no-RF group were older, with lower body mass index and prevalence of other cardiovascular comorbidity and chronic kidney disease compared with the RF group. The in-hospital percutaneous coronary intervention rates were lower among the no-RF vs. the RF group (55% vs. 66%, respectively p<0.001). Furthermore, lower rate of guideline-recommended medical therapy upon discharge was prescribed in the no-RF group. The rate of in-hospital complications was greater in the no-RF vs. RF group (31.6% vs. 26.1%, respectively p=0.005). The rates of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; 17.6% vs.12.8%, respectively, p=0.002) and of 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (8.4% vs. 4.2%, p<0.001 and 11.4% vs. 7.7%, p=0.003 respectively) were higher among patients with no-RF vs. RF. Following propensity score matching 30-day MACE, 30-day and 1-year mortality risk remained higher in the no-RF group. The rate of 30-day MACE decreased between the early and the late study period in the no-RF group (21.5% vs. 10.5%, p=0.003, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

ACS patients without traditional cardiovascular risk-factors comprise a unique group with reduced prevalence of comorbidities yet significantly worse outcomes. Additional research to identify unique risk-factors and targets for interventions to improve outcomes of this group of patients is warranted.

Prognostic impact of comorbidity measures on outcomes following acute coronary syndrome: A systematic review

AIM

To identify existing comorbidity measures and summarise their association with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) outcomes.

METHODS

We searched published studies from MEDLINE (OVIDSP) and EMBASE from inception to March 2021, studies of the pre-specified conference proceedings from Web of Science since May 2017, and studies included in any relevant systematic reviews. Studies that reported no comorbidity measures, no association of comorbid burden with ACS outcomes, or only used a comorbidity measure as a confounder without further information were excluded. After independent screening by three reviewers, data extraction and risk of bias assessment of each included study was undertaken. Results were narratively synthesised.

RESULTS

Of 4166 potentially eligible studies identified, 12 (combined n = 6 885 982 participants) were included. Most studies had a high risk of bias at quality assessment. Six different types of comorbidity measures were identified with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) the most widely used measure among studies. Overall, the greater the comorbid burden or the higher comorbidity scores recorded, the greater was the association with the risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The review summarised different comorbidity measures and reported that higher comorbidity scores were associated with worse ACS outcomes. The CCI is the most widely measure of comorbid burden and shows additive value to clinical risk scores in use.

Changes over Time in Hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) Levels Predict Long-Term Survival Following Acute Myocardial Infarction among Patients with Diabetes Mellitus

Frequent fluctuations of hemoglobin A1c (HbA_1C) values predict patient outcomes. However, data regarding prognoses depending on the long-term changes in HbA_1C among patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are scarce. We evaluated the prognostic significance of HbA_1C levels and changes among diabetic patients (n = 4066) after non-fatal AMI. All the results of HbA_1C tests up to the 10-year follow-up were obtained. The changes (∆) of HbA_1C were calculated in each patient. The time intervals of ∆HbA_1C values were classified as rapid (<one year) and slow (≥one year) changes. The outcome was all-cause mortality. The highest mortality rates of 53.8% and 35.5% were found in the HbA_1C < 5.5–7% and ∆HbA_1C = −2.5–(−2%) categories. A U-shaped association was observed between HbA_1C and mortality: adjOR = 1.887 and adjOR = 1.302 for HbA_1C < 5.5% and ≥8.0%, respectively, as compared with 5.5–6.5% (p < 0.001). Additionally, ∆HbA_1C was associated with the outcome (U-shaped): adjOR = 2.376 and adjOR = 1.340 for the groups of <−2.5% and ≥2.5% ∆HbA_1C, respectively, as compared to minimal ∆HbA_1C (±0.5%) (p < 0.001). A rapid increase in HbA_1C (but not decrease) was associated with a greater risk of mortality. HbA_1C values and their changes are significant prognostic markers for long-term mortality among AMI-DM patients. ∆HbA_1C and its timing, in addition to absolute HbA_1C values, should be monitored.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for myocardial infarction patients in intensive care units: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram and evaluate the discrimination of the nomogram model in order to improve the prediction of 30-day survival of critically ill myocardial infarction (MI) patients.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III database, consisting of critically ill participants between 2001 and 2012 in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2031 adult critically ill patients with MI were enrolled from the MIMIC-III database.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME

Thirty-day survival.

RESULTS

Independent prognostic factors, including age, heart rate, white blood cell count, blood urea nitrogen and bicarbonate, were identified by Cox regression model and used in the nomogram. Good agreement between the prediction and observation was indicated by the calibration curve for 30-day survival. The nomogram exhibited reasonably accurate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.765, 95% CI, 0.716 to 0.814) and calibration (C-index, 0.758, 95% CI, 0.712 to 0.804) in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial. Additionally, participants could be classified into two risk groups by the nomogram, and the 30-day survival probability was significantly different between them (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

This five-factor nomogram can achieve a reasonable degree of accuracy to predict 30-day survival in critically ill MI patients and might be helpful for risk stratification and decision-making for MI patients.

Associations between Subsequent Hospitalizations and Primary Ambulatory Services Utilization within the First Year after Acute Myocardial Infarction and Long-Term Mortality

Healthcare resource utilization peaks throughout the first year following acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Data linking the former and outcomes are sparse. We evaluated the associations between subsequent length of in-hospital stay (SLOS) and primary ambulatory visits (PAV) within the first year after AMI and long-term mortality. This retrospective analysis included patients who were discharged following an AMI. Study groups: low (0-1 days), intermediate (2-7) and high (≥8 days) SLOS; low (<10) and high (≥10 visits) PAV, throughout the first post-AMI year. All-cause mortality was set as the primary outcome. Overall, 8112 patients were included: 55.2%, 23.4% and 21.4% in low, intermediate and high SLOS groups respectively; 26.0% and 74.0% in low and high-PAV groups. Throughout the follow-up period (up to 18 years), 49.6% patients died. Multivariable analysis showed that an increased SLOS (Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.313 and HR = 1.714 for intermediate and high vs. low groups respectively) and a reduced number of PAV (HR = 1.24 for low vs. high groups) were independently associated with an increased risk for mortality (p < 0.001 for each). Long-term mortality following AMI is associated with high hospital and low primary ambulatory services utilization throughout the first-year post-discharge. Measures focusing on patients with increased SLOS and reduced PAV should be considered to improve patient outcomes.

Mortality and healthcare resource utilization following acute myocardial infarction according to adherence to recommended medical therapy guidelines

Guideline recommended medical therapy (GRMT) plays a pivotal role in improving long-term outcomes and healthcare burden of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. We evaluated patients' adherence to GRMT following AMI and the association with long-term (up-to 10 years) mortality, healthcare resource utilization and costs.

METHODS

AMI patients hospitalized in a tertiary medical center in Israel that survived at least a year following post-discharge and enrolled in the two largest health plans were analyzed. Data were obtained from computerized medical records. Patients were defined as adherent when ≥80 % of the GRMT prescriptions were issue during the first post-discharge year. Hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, primary care utilization and outpatient consulting clinic and other ambulatory services expenditure were calculated annually.

RESULTS

Overall 8287 patients qualified for the study (mean age 65.0 ± 13.6 years, 69.7 % males). Adherent patients (n = 1767, 21.3 %) were more likely to be younger, women and increased prevalence of most traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Throughout the follow-up, 2620 patients (31.6 %) died, 22.0 % versus 34.2 %, in the adherent vs. the non-adherent group (adjHR = 0.816, 95 % CI:0.730-0.913, p < 0.001). Reduced hospitalizations (adjOR = 0.783, p < 0.001), ED visits (adjOR = 0.895, p = 0.033), and costs (adjOR = 0.744, p < 0.001), yet increased primary clinics (adjOR = 2.173, p < 0.001) ambulatory (adjOR = 1.072, p = 0.018) and consultant (adjOR = 1.162, p < 0.001) visits, were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to GRMT following AMI is associated with decreased mortality, hospitalizations and costs.

Temporal trends in healthcare resource utilization and costs following acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is associated with greater utilization of healthcare resources and financial expenditure.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate temporal trends in healthcare resource utilization and costs following AMI throughout 2003-2015.

METHODS

AMI patients who survived the first year following hospitalization in a tertiary medical center (Soroka University Medical Center) throughout 2002-2012 were included and followed until 2015. Length of the in-hospital stay (LOS), emergency department (ED), primary care, outpatient consulting clinic visits and other ambulatory services, and their costs, were evaluated and compared annually over time.

RESULTS

Overall 8047 patients qualified for the current study; mean age 65.0 (SD = 13.6) years, 30.3% women. During follow-up, LOS and the number of primary care visits has decreased significantly. However, ED and consultant visits as well as ambulatory-services utilization has increased. Total costs have decreased throughout this period. Multivariate analysis, adjusted for potential confounders, showed as significant trend of decrease in LOS and ambulatory-services utilization, yet an increase in ED visits with no change in total costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a decline in utilization of most healthcare services throughout the investigated decade, healthcare expenditure has not changed. Further evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of long-term resource allocation following AMI is warranted. Nevertheless, we believe more intense ambulatory follow-up focusing on secondary prevention and early detection, as well as high-quality outpatient chest pain unit are warranted.

Healthcare-service utilization and direct costs throughout ten years following acute myocardial infarction: Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction II (SAMI II) project

Objective: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is associated with significant risk for long-term morbidity and healthcare expenditure. We investigated healthcare utilization and direct costs throughout 10 years following AMI. Methods: A retrospective study included AMI patients hospitalized in a tertiary medical center throughout 2002-2012. Data was obtained from computerized medical records. Hospitalizations, emergency department (ED), primary care and outpatient consulting clinic visits and other ambulatory services, following the AMI and their costs, were compared with the year preceding the AMI. Results: Overall 9548 patients were analyzed (age 66.6 ± 13.9 years, 67.8% men, 48.1% ST-elevation AMI). A significant increase in the utilization of all the evaluated services was observed in the first year following the AMI compared with the preceding year (p < .001 for each) and followed by a decline thereafter (p-for trend < .001 for each) except increased number of ED visits (p-for trend = .014). Annual per-patient costs throughout the first year following AMI (5592€) were significantly greater compared with the preceding year (3120€) and declined subsequently to 3216€ and 2760€ for years 2-5 and 6-10, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that throughout the first half of the follow-up total costs were slightly higher and in the second half similar to the year preceding the AMI. Analysis of the relative costs showed that ambulatory services make up most of the expenditure. Conclusions: Healthcare utilization and economic expenditure peak throughout the first year and decline afterwards. For several services it remains higher for up to 10 years compared with the year preceding the AMI.

Trends of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction II (SAMI II) Project

CONCLUSIONS

The last decade, patients with AMI became older with increased burden of CVRFs. Framingham risk score increased among patients with NSTEMI and decreased in patients with STEMI. These trends impact on risk stratification and secondary prevention programs.

Appropriate secondary prevention and clinical outcomes after acute myocardial infarction according to atherothrombotic risk stratification: The FAST-MI 2010 registry

BACKGROUND

Full secondary prevention medication regimen is often under-prescribed after acute myocardial infarction.

DESIGN

The purpose of this study was to analyse the relationship between prescription of appropriate secondary prevention treatment at discharge and long-term clinical outcomes according to risk level defined by the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS-2P) after acute myocardial infarction.

METHODS

We used data from the 2010 French Registry of Acute ST-Elevation or non-ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction (FAST-MI) registry, including 4169 consecutive acute myocardial infarction patients admitted to cardiac intensive care units in France. Level of risk was stratified in three groups using the TRS-2P score: group 1 (low-risk; TRS-2P=0/1); group 2 (intermediate-risk; TRS-2P=2); and group 3 (high-risk; TRS-2P≥3). Appropriate secondary prevention treatment was defined according to the latest guidelines (dual antiplatelet therapy and moderate/high dose statins for all; new-P2Y12 inhibitors, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin-receptor-blockers and beta-blockers as indicated).

RESULTS

Prevalence of groups 1, 2 and 3 was 46%, 25% and 29% respectively. Appropriate secondary prevention treatment at discharge was used in 39.5%, 37% and 28% of each group, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, evidence-based treatments at discharge were associated with lower rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (death, re-myocardial infarction or stroke) at five years especially in high-risk patients: hazard ratio = 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.59-1.12, p = 0.21) in group 1, 0.74 (0.54-1.01; p = 0.06) in group 2, and 0.64 (0.52-0.79, p < 0.001) in group 3.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of appropriate secondary prevention treatment at discharge was inversely correlated with patient risk. The increased hazard related to lack of prescription of recommended medications was much larger in high-risk patients. Specific efforts should be directed at better prescription of recommended treatment, particularly in high-risk patients.

Sodium levels during hospitalization with acute myocardial infarction are markers of in-hospital mortality: Soroka acute myocardial infarction II (SAMI-II) project

OBJECTIVE

Abnormalities in sodium homeostasis are common in hospitalized patients. Hyponatremia upon admission is a poor prognostic marker in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients. However, little is known about the association between changes in sodium levels and in-hospital mortality. We delineated changes in sodium levels and studied the association of such changes with in-hospital mortality of AMI patients.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of AMI patients hospitalized for > 6 days. Sodium levels throughout the 6-day post-admission were divided into five equally sized groups (quintiles = Q) and thereafter categorized as follows: Q1 (< 135 mEq/L), Q2-Q4 (135-140 mEq/L, reference group), and Q5 (≥141 mEq/L).

PRIMARY OUTCOME

in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 8306 patients (10,416 admissions) were included (mean age 67.8 ± 14.0 years, 33.4% women, 45.5% STEMI). In-hospital mortality was 6.6%. Q1 and Q5 upon admission were both related to higher risk for in-hospital mortality, compared with the reference group (OR 1.47 and OR 1.33, respectively, p < 0.001 each). Q1 was more frequent in non-survivors throughout the entire study period, while the prevalence of Q5 levels was similar in survivors and non-survivors upon admission carrying increasing mortality risk thereafter: for Q1 consistent OR 1.50, while for Q5 it, increased from OR 1.32 upon admission to OR 1.90 on the sixth day, p < 0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Low and high sodium levels are associated with increased risk for in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI. The risk is unchanged for hyponatremia, while it consistently increases for increased sodium levels.

Serum calcium levels independently predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Serum calcium levels (sCa) were reported to be associated with cardiovascular risk factors, incidence of coronary artery disease and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The current study evaluated the association between sCa and in-hospital mortality among AMI patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients admitted in a tertiary medical center for AMI throughout 2002-2012 were analyzed. For each patient, mean sCa, corrected to albumin, was calculated and categorized to seven equally-sized groups: <8.9, 8.9-9.12, 9.12-9.3, 9.3-9.44, 9.44-9.62, 9.62-9.86, ≥9.86 mg/dL. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Out of 12,121 AMI patients, 11,446 were included, mean age 67.1 ± 14 years, 68% Males. Mean number of sCa values for patient was 4.2 ± 7.3. Mean sCa was 9.4 ± 0.53 mg/dL, range 5.6-13.2 mg/dL sCa was significantly associated with cardiovascular risk-factors, in-hospital complications, more frequent 3-vessel coronary artery disease and decreased rate of revascularization, often in a U-shaped association. Overall 794 (6.9%) patients died in-hospital. Multivariate analysis showed a significant U-shaped association between sCa and in-hospital mortality with sCa below 9.12 mg/dL and above 9.86 mg/dL as independent predictors of significantly increased in-hospital mortality: OR = 2.4 (95% CI:1.7-3.3) and 1.7 (95%CI:1.2-2.4), for Ca<8.9 and Ca≥9.86 mg/dL respectively p < 0.01, as compared with middle rage sCa group (9.3-9.44 mg/dL).

CONCLUSION

sCa is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI with a U-shaped association. Both increased and decreased sCa levels are associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality.

White Blood Cell Subtypes Are Associated with a Greater Long-Term Risk of Death after Acute Myocardial Infarction

We evaluated the association between white blood cell counts and long-term mortality rates in 2,129 patients (mean age, 65.3 ± 13.5 yr; 69% men) who had survived acute myocardial infarction. We obtained white blood cell counts and differential counts of white blood cell subtypes within the first 72 hours of hospital admission. The primary outcome was all-cause death at 1, 5, and 10 years after acute myocardial infarction. In regard to death in the long term, we found significant negative linear associations (lymphocytes), positive linear associations (neutrophils and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio), and nonlinear U-shaped associations (basophils, eosinophils, monocytes, and total white blood cell count). After multivariate adjustment for the Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction risk score, lymphocytes (strongest association), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and eosinophils were independently associated with death for up to 10 years after hospital discharge. The independent associations weakened over time. We conclude that lymphocyte count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and eosinophil count are independently and incrementally associated with death in the long term after acute myocardial infarction.

Excess long-term mortality among hospital survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction (SAMI) project

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated long-term survival after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in unselected 'real life' patients according to the various risk groups, and it's persistence with time after AMI as compared with the matched general population.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective study.

METHODS

Data were collected from 2671 AMI hospital survivors (tertiary medical centre in Israel), which included demographics, clinical characteristics of AMI, comorbidities, interventions and test results. All-cause mortality during the 10-year follow-up period was compared with age-, sex- and ethnicity/religion-matched general population using standardized mortality ratios (SMRs).

RESULTS

Overall mortality of AMI patients (48.6%) was higher than the general population (SMR, 2.2; P < 0.001). Mortality rates and SMRs tended to be greater in higher risk strata of patients, Jews vs Muslims, women vs men, non-ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) vs ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-invasive treatment vs invasive treatment, and recurrent vs first AMI. Mortality rates increased with age, but SMRs were highest in the youngest group. Through the follow-up period, SMR was highest during the first year after discharge (SMR, 4.85; P < 0.001) and higher in 7th-10th years compared with 2nd-6th years.

CONCLUSION

Patients who survived hospital admission with AMI continue to be at higher (approximately twice) risk of death compared with the general population for at least 10-year follow-up period and especially throughout the first and 7th-10th years after AMI, young women, high-risk patients, Jews, NSTEMI, non-invasively treated and recurrent AMI. These findings can assist healthcare providers and decision makers prioritizing targets of secondary prevention and allocation of resources.

Decreased Norton's functional score is an independent long-term prognostic marker in hospital survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction II (SAMI-II) project

BACKGROUND

Patient function is a risk factor of mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Norton scale (NS) was originally developed to estimate the risk for pressure ulcers. It contains 5 domains: mental condition, physical condition, mobility, activity in daily living and incontinence.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate NS as long-term prognostic marker following AMI.

METHODS

A retrospective study based on computerized medical records of AMI patient hospitalized in a tertiary medical center in 2004-2012. NS scores and patients' characteristics were collected from computerized databases. The primary outcome was all-cause long-term (up-to 10-years) mortality.

RESULTS

Overall 6964 patients were included; mean age 67.3±14.1years, 68.1% males. Mean NS score was 17.8±3; of which 21.1% had low-NS (≤16). Patients with low-NS had increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and renal disease, 3-vessel coronary artery disease, more often Non ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (NSTEMI) and in-hospital complications. Throughout the follow-up period cumulative mortality rate in patients with low- and high-NS groups were 97.3% and 43% respectively (AdjHR 1.66; 95% CI: 1.521-1.826; p<0.001). Furthermore, a reduction in one point in the NS score inversely associated with increased risk for mortality (AdjHR 1.10; 95% CI: 1.12-1.22; p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

NS is an independent long-term prognostic marker for all-cause mortality in hospital survivors with a gradual "dose-response" effect. This data emphasizes the importance prognostic implication of the general functional status on the prognosis of AMI patients.

The role of Glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors in acute coronary syndromes and the interference with anemia

The role played by glycoprotein (GP) IIb/IIIa inhibitors (GPI) has continuously evolved until the most recent Guidelines whereby they were stepped down from class I to class II recommendation for treating acute coronary syndromes (ACS). GPI compete with a wider use of ADP inhibitors and novel anticoagulant drugs although GPI use has greatly narrowed. However, GPI may still have a role. Several criteria were proposed to define post-PCI anemia which is strictly related to bleeding and transfusion. In ACS, it should be important to define anemia in comparative terms versus baseline levels: ≥ 15% of red blood cell decrease should be a practical cut-off value. If one wishes to concentrate on hemoglobin (Hb), a≥2g/dl Hb decrease from baseline should be considered. It is important to recognize post-PCI anemia in the setting of ACS. There are sub-populations exposed to short-term hemorrhagic and/or long-term ischemic risks. Ischemic and hemorrhagic risks need to be carefully evaluated along with thrombocytopenia and its prognostic significance in order to put all these blood and rheological parameters into a clinically oriented perspective on which therapeutical decisions should be based. Definition of high risk procedures (complexity, angiographic characteristics and patient's risk profile, regardless whether STEMI or NSTEMI) may help selecting GPI. There are positive elements in GPI use: efficacy, rapid onset and reversibility of action, absence of pharmacogenomic variability, pharmacoeconomic considerations and the possibility of intracoronary administration. All these elements should be evaluated when selecting these agents for therapeutics.

Decreased admission serum albumin level is an independent predictor of long-term mortality in hospital survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction II (SAMI-II) project

BACKGROUND

Decreased serum albumin level (SAL) was reported to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events and short term-mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between SAL and long-term mortality in AMI hospital survivors.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of patients admitted in a tertiary medical center for AMI 2002-2012 and discharged alive.

EXCLUSION CRITERIA

active infections, inflammatory diseases, significant liver or kidney failure, malignancy, ejection-fraction <20%, severe heart valvular-disease and missing SAL. SAL was categorized as following: <3.4, 3.4-3.7, 3.7-3.9, 3.9-4.1 and >4.1g/dL. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality for up-to 10-years post-AMI.

RESULTS

Out of 12,535 patients, 8750 were included. Patients with reduced SAL were older, higher rate of women, increased prevalence of severe left ventricular dysfunction, chronic renal failure, diabetes mellitus and ST-elevation AMI, 3-vessel coronary artery disease, and in-hospital complications. While the prevalence of chronic ischemic coronary disease, dyslipidemia, smokers and obesity, was lower. Mortality rates throughout the follow-up period increased as SAL decreased with 17.6%, 24%, 28.5%, 38.6%, and 57.5% for SAL of >4.1, 3.9-4.1, 3.7-3.9, 3.4-3.7 and <3.4g/dL respectively (p-for-trend <0.001). Using the SAL category of >4.1g/dL as the reference group, Adjusted Hazard Ratio values were 1.14 (p=0.107), 1.23 (p=0.007), 1.39 (p<0.001) and 1.70 (p<0.001) for the SAL categories of 3.9-4.1, 3.7-3.9, 3.4-3.7 and <3.4g/dL respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreased SAL on admission, including levels within "normal" clinical range, is significantly associated with long-term all-cause mortality in hospital survivors of AMI with a "dose-response" type association.

Predictors of long-term (10-year) mortality postmyocardial infarction: age-related differences. Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction (SAMI) Project

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in elderly people. Over the past decades medical advancements in the management of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) led to improved survival and increased life expectancy. As short-term survival from AMI improves, more attention is being shifted toward understanding and improving long-term outcomes.

AIM

To evaluate age-associated variations in the long-term (up to 10 years) prognostic factors following AMI in "real world" patients, focusing on improving risk stratification of elderly patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 2763 consecutive AMI patients according to age groups: ≤65 years (n=1230) and >65 years (n=1533). Data were collected from the hospital's computerized systems. The primary outcome was 10-year postdischarge all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Higher rates of women, non-ST-elevation AMI, and most comorbidities were found in elderly patients, while the rates of invasive treatment were lower. During the follow-up period, mortality rate was higher among the older versus the younger group (69.7% versus 18.6%). Some of the parameters included in the interaction multivariate model had stronger association with the outcome in the younger group (hyponatremia, anemia, alcohol abuse or drug addiction, malignant neoplasm, renal disease, previous myocardial infarction, and invasive interventions) while others were stronger predictors in the elderly group (higher age, left main coronary artery or three-vessel disease, and neurological disorders). The c-statistic values of the multivariate models were 0.75 and 0.74 in the younger and the elder groups, respectively, and 0.86 for the interaction model.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term mortality following AMI in young as well as elderly patients can be predicted from simple, easily accessible clinical information. The associations of most predictors and mortality were stronger in younger patients. These predictors can be used for optimizing patient care aiming at mortality reduction.