An early warning scoring system for the prevention of acute heart failure

SUPER Score Contributes to Warning and Management in Early-Stage COVID-19

Background

Some COVID-19 patients deteriorate to severe cases with relatively higher case-fatality rates, which increases the medical burden. This necessitates identification of patients at risk of severe disease. Early assessment plays a crucial role in identifying patients at risk of severe disease. This study is to assess the effectiveness of SUPER score as a predictor of severe COVID-19 cases.

Methods

We consecutively enrolled COVID-19 patients admitted to a comprehensive medical center in Wuhan, China, and recorded clinical characteristics and laboratory indexes. The SUPER score was calculated using parameters including oxygen saturation, urine volume, pulse, emotional state, and respiratory rate. In addition, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), specificity, and sensitivity of the SUPER score for the diagnosis of severe COVID-19 were calculated and compared with the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2).

Results

The SUPER score at admission, with a threshold of 4, exhibited good predictive performance for early identification of severe COVID-19 cases, yielding an AUC of 0.985 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.897-1.000), sensitivity of 1.00 (95% CI 0.715-1.000), and specificity of 0.92 (95% CI 0.775-0.982), similar to NEWS2 (AUC 0.984; 95% CI 0.895-1.000, sensitivity 0.91; 95% CI 0.587-0.998, specificity 0.97; 95% CI 0.858-0.999). Compared with patients with a SUPER score<4, patients in the high-risk group exhibited lower lymphocyte counts, interleukin-2, interleukin-4 and higher fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, and lactate dehydrogenase levels.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the SUPER score demonstrated equivalent accuracy to the NEWS2 score in predicting severe COVID-19. Its application in prognostic assessment therefore offers an effective early warning system for critical management and facilitating efficient allocation of health resources.

Development and Validation of a Simple-to-Use Nomogram for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Acute Heart Failure Undergoing Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy

Background: Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) who require continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) have a high risk of in-hospital mortality. It is clinically important to screen high-risk patients using a model or scoring system. This study aimed to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram consisting of independent prognostic variables for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with AHF undergoing CRRT.

Methods: We collected clinical data for 121 patients with a diagnosis of AHF who underwent CRRT in an AHF unit between September 2011 and August 2020 and from 105 patients in the medical information mart for intensive care III (MIMIC-III) database. The nomogram model was created using a visual processing logistic regression model and verified using the standard method.

Results: Patient age, days after admission, lactic acid level, blood glucose concentration, and diastolic blood pressure were the significant prognostic factors in the logistic regression analyses and were included in our model (named D-GLAD) as predictors. The resulting model containing the above-mentioned five factors had good discrimination ability in both the training group (C-index, 0.829) and the validation group (C-index, 0.740). The calibration and clinical effectiveness showed the nomogram to be accurate for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in both the training and validation cohort when compared with other models. The in-hospital mortality rates in the low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups were 14.46, 40.74, and 71.91%, respectively.

Conclusion: The nomogram allowed the optimal prediction of in-hospital mortality in adults with AHF undergoing CRRT. Using this simple-to-use model, the in-hospital mortality risk can be determined for an individual patient and could be useful for the early identification of high-risk patients. An online version of the D-GLAD model can be accessed at https://ahfcrrt-d-glad.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/.

Clinical Trial Registration:www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT0751838.

Efficacy of risk early-warning system in prevention of nosocomial infection in hospitalized patients in gastroenterology department

AIM

To evaluate the efficacy of risk early-warning system in the prevention of nosocomial infection in hospitalized patients in gastroenterology department.

METHODS

Six hundred and seventy-seven patients hospitalized from July 2013 to August 2016 at gastroenterology department were divided into either an observation group (February 2015 to August 2016) or a control group (July 2013 to January 2015) based on whether risk early-warning system was adopted. The incidence of nosocomial infection and infection control effects were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

The observation group included 390 cases, in which 5 (1.28%) developed nosocomial infection, including two cases of respiratory tract infection and three cases of gastrointestinal infection. The control group contained 287 cases, in which 10 (3.48%) developed nosocomial infection, including two cases of respiratory tract infection, three cases of urinary tract infection, three cases of gastrointestinal infection, one case of blood infection, and one case of skin infection. The overall incidence rate of nosocomial infection was significantly lower in the observation group than in the control group (P < 0.05). There were 46 management persons for the observation group, in which the qualified rate of early warning awareness was 95.65%, the rate of having knowledge of nosocomial infection was 93.48%, and the rate of excellent warning was 97.83%. There were 41 management persons for the control group, in which the qualified rate of early warning awareness, the rate of having knowledge of nosocomial infection, and the rate of excellent warning were 68.29%, 73.17%, and 82.93%, respectively. There were significant differences between the observation group and the control group (P < 0.05 for all)

CONCLUSION

The implementation of risk early-warning system can reduce the risk of nosocomial infection in hospitalized patients, improve the quality of risk management, and reduce or even avoid the occurrence of risk events and disputes.

Analyzing Dynamic Changes of Laboratory Indexes in Patients with Acute Heart Failure Based on Retrospective Study

Background. Changes of N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) have been studied whether in the long term or the short term in patients of acute heart failure (AHF); however, changes of NT-proBNP in the first five days and their association with other factors have not been investigated. Aims. To describe the dynamic changes of relevant laboratory indexes in the first five days between different outcomes of AHF patients and their associations. Methods and Results. 284 AHF with dynamic values recorded were analyzed. Changes of NT-proBNP, troponin T, and C-reactive protein were different between patients with different outcomes, with higher values in adverse group than in control group at the same time points (p < 0.05). Then, prognostic use and risk stratification of NT-proBNP were assessed by receiver-operating characteristic curve and logistic regression. NT-proBNP levels at day 3 showed the best prognostic power (area under the curve = 0.730, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.657 to 0.794) and was an independent risk factor for adverse outcome (odds ratio, OR: 2.185, 95% CI: 1.584–3.015). Classified changes of NT-proBNP may be predictive for adverse outcomes in AHF patients. Conclusions. Sequential monitoring of laboratory indexes within the first 5 days may be helpful for management of AHF patients.

Automated identification and predictive tools to help identify high-risk heart failure patients: pilot evaluation

OBJECTIVE

Develop and evaluate an automated identification and predictive risk report for hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients.

METHODS

Dictated free-text reports from the previous 24 h were analyzed each day with natural language processing (NLP), to help improve the early identification of hospitalized patients with HF. A second application that uses an Intermountain Healthcare-developed predictive score to determine each HF patient's risk for 30-day hospital readmission and 30-day mortality was also developed. That information was included in an identification and predictive risk report, which was evaluated at a 354-bed hospital that treats high-risk HF patients.

RESULTS

The addition of NLP-identified HF patients increased the identification score's sensitivity from 82.6% to 95.3% and its specificity from 82.7% to 97.5%, and the model's positive predictive value is 97.45%. Daily multidisciplinary discharge planning meetings are now based on the information provided by the HF identification and predictive report, and clinician's review of potential HF admissions takes less time compared to the previously used manual methodology (10 vs 40 min). An evaluation of the use of the HF predictive report identified a significant reduction in 30-day mortality and a significant increase in patient discharges to home care instead of to a specialized nursing facility.

CONCLUSIONS

Using clinical decision support to help identify HF patients and automatically calculating their 30-day all-cause readmission and 30-day mortality risks, coupled with a multidisciplinary care process pathway, was found to be an effective process to improve HF patient identification, significantly reduce 30-day mortality, and significantly increase patient discharges to home care.