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Martens P, Mullens W, Fang JC, Tang WHW. Self-Reported Sodium Intake and Sodium Vulnerability in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction. Mayo Clin Proc 2024; 99:S0025-6196(24)00140-X. [PMID: 39093264 DOI: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2024.03.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2023] [Revised: 02/11/2024] [Accepted: 03/05/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine the pathophysiologic and prognostic meaning of patient self-reported sodium intake in heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). METHODS This cohort analysis used data from the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trial of patients enrolled in the Americas. Tertiles of baseline self-reported sodium intake were used to assess the relationship between self-reported sodium intake and clinical presentation/outcome and interactions with treatment effect of spironolactone. RESULTS Self-reported sodium intake of 1748 patients with HFpEF included in TOPCAT were divided according to tertiles of sodium intake (47% low, 35% moderate, and 18% high sodium intake). After covariate adjustment, lower self-reported sodium intake was associated with higher risk of HF hospital admission (P=.009). Patients with lower sodium intake had higher E-wave velocity, left ventricular end diastolic volume, and estimated plasma volume (P<.001). Lower sodium intake was associated with a larger treatment effect of spironolactone on HF hospitalizations (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.91) vs the highest tertile (hazard ratio, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.79 to 2.38; interaction P=.030). In addition, linear mixed models indicated larger reductions in blood pressure, dyspnea, and edema (all interaction P<.001) in patients with lower sodium intake receiving spironolactone. CONCLUSION Low self-reported sodium level in HFpEF is associated with higher risk of HF hospital admissions and may indicate a sodium-vulnerable state; patients should not be falsely reassured that they are in a lower risk category despite greater adherence to medical recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pieter Martens
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Heart, Vascular, and Thoracic Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH; Department of Cardiology, Ziekenhuis Oost Limburg, Genk, Belgium; Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - Wilfried Mullens
- Department of Cardiology, Ziekenhuis Oost Limburg, Genk, Belgium; Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
| | - James C Fang
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City
| | - W H Wilson Tang
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Heart, Vascular, and Thoracic Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH.
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Jia Y, Cui N, Jia T, Song J. Prognostic models for patients suffering a heart failure with a preserved ejection fraction: a systematic review. ESC Heart Fail 2024; 11:1341-1351. [PMID: 38318693 PMCID: PMC11098651 DOI: 10.1002/ehf2.14696] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/27/2023] [Revised: 01/02/2024] [Accepted: 01/09/2024] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to systematically review the development, performance, and applicability of prognostic models developed for predicting poor events in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Databases including Embase, PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, the Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wan Fang, Wei Pu, and China Biological Medicine were queried from their respective dates of inception to 1 June 2023, to examine multivariate models for prognostic prediction in HFpEF. Both forward and backward citations of all studies were included in our analysis. Two researchers individually used the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist to extract data and assess the quality of the models using the Predictive Mode Bias Risk Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Among the 6897 studies screened, 16 studies derived and/or validated a total of 39 prognostic models. The sample size ranges for model development, internal validation, and external validation are 119 to 5988, 152 to 1000, and 30 to 5957, respectively. The most frequently employed modelling technique was Cox proportional hazards regression. Six studies (37.50%) conducted internal validation of models; bootstrap and k-fold cross-validation were the commonly used methods for internal validation of models. Ten of these models (25.64%) were validated externally, with reported the c-statistic in the external validation set ranging from 0.70 to 0.96, while the remaining models await external validation. The MEDIA echo score and I-PRESERVE-sudden cardiac death prediction mode have been externally validated using multiple cohorts, and the results consistently show good predictive performance. The most frequently used predictors identified among the models were age, n-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, ejection fraction, albumin, and hospital stay in the last 5 months owing to heart failure. All study predictor domains and outcome domains were at low risk of bias, high or unclear risk of bias of all prognostic models due to underreporting in the area of analysis. All studies did not evaluate the clinical utility of the prognostic models. Predictive models for predicting prognostic outcomes in patients with HFpEF showed good discriminatory ability but their utility and generalization remain uncertain due to the risk of bias, differences in predictors between models, and the lack of clinical application studies. Future studies should improve the methodological quality of model development and conduct external validation of models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying‐Ying Jia
- Department of NursingThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhouChina
- Department of NursingZhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhouChina
| | - Nian‐Qi Cui
- School of NursingKunming Medical UniversityKunmingChina
| | - Ting‐Ting Jia
- Department of General SurgeryGansu Provincial People's Hospital, Cadre WardLanzhouChina
| | - Jian‐Ping Song
- Department of NursingThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhouChina
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3
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Gao Y, Chen B, Han Y, Lu J, Li X, Tian A, Zhang L, Wang B, Hong Y, Liu J, Li Y, Bilige W, Zhang H, Zheng X, Li J. Prognostic Value of a Multi-mRNA Signature for 1-Year All-Cause Death in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure With a Preserved Ejection Fraction. Circ Heart Fail 2024; 17:e011118. [PMID: 38847104 DOI: 10.1161/circheartfailure.123.011118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/26/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a major global public health problem, while effective risk stratification tools are still lacking. We sought to construct a multi-mRNA signature to predict 1-year all-cause death. METHODS We selected 30 patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction who died during 1-year follow-up and 30 who survived in the discovery set. One hundred seventy-one and 120 patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction were randomly selected as a test set and a validation set, respectively. We performed mRNA microarrays in all patients. RESULTS We constructed a 5-mRNA signature for predicting 1-year all-cause death. The scores of the 5-mRNA signature were significantly associated with the 1-year risk of all-cause death in both the test set (hazard ratio, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.98-3.74]; P<0.001) and the validation set (hazard ratio, 3.95 [95% CI, 2.40-6.48]; P<0.001). Compared with a reference model, which included sex, ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure) score, history of HF and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), the 5-mRNA signature had a better discrimination capability, with an increased area under the curve from 0.696 to 0.813 in the test set and from 0.712 to 0.848 in the validation set. A composite model integrating the 5-mRNA risk score and variables in the reference model demonstrated an excellent discrimination capability, with an area under the curve of 0.861 (95% CI, 0.784-0.939) in the test set and an area under the curve of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.755-0.963) in the validation set. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement indicated that the composite model significantly improved patient classification compared with the reference model in both sets (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The 5-mRNA signature is a promising predictive tool for 1-year all-cause death and shows improved prognostic power over the established risk scores and NT-proBNP in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Gao
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Bowang Chen
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Yi Han
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Jiapeng Lu
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Xi Li
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Aoxi Tian
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Lihua Zhang
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Bin Wang
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Yun Hong
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Jiamin Liu
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Yan Li
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Wuhan Bilige
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Haibo Zhang
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Xin Zheng
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
| | - Jing Li
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Beijing, China (Y.G., B.C., Y. Han, J. Lu, X. L., A.T., L.Z., B.W., Y. Hong, J. Liu, Y.L., W.B., H.Z., X.Z., J. Li)
- Central China Subcenter of National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Henan Cardiovascular Disease Center, Fuwai Central-China Cardiovascular Hospital, Central China Fuwai Hospital of Zhengzhou University (J. Li)
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McDowell K, Kondo T, Talebi A, Teh K, Bachus E, de Boer RA, Campbell RT, Claggett B, Desai AS, Docherty KF, Hernandez AF, Inzucchi SE, Kosiborod MN, Lam CSP, Martinez F, Simpson J, Vaduganathan M, Jhund PS, Solomon SD, McMurray JJV. Prognostic Models for Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction. JAMA Cardiol 2024; 9:457-465. [PMID: 38536153 PMCID: PMC10974691 DOI: 10.1001/jamacardio.2024.0284] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2023] [Accepted: 02/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/09/2024]
Abstract
Importance Accurate risk prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) may help clinicians risk stratify and inform care decisions. Objective To develop and validate a novel prediction model for clinical outcomes in patients with HFpEF using routinely collected variables and to compare it with a biomarker-driven approach. Design, Setting, and Participants Data were used from the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial to derive the prediction model, and data from the Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibition in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (PARAGON-HF) and the Irbesartan in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Study (I-PRESERVE) trials were used to validate it. The outcomes were the composite of HF hospitalization (HFH) or cardiovascular death, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. A total of 30 baseline candidate variables were selected in a stepwise fashion using multivariable analyses to create the models. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2023. Exposures Models to estimate the 1-year and 2-year risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. Results Data from 6263 individuals in the DELIVER trial were used to derive the prediction model and data from 4796 individuals in the PARAGON-HF trial and 4128 individuals in the I-PRESERVE trial were used to validate it. The final prediction model for the composite outcome included 11 variables: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level, HFH within the past 6 months, creatinine level, diabetes, geographic region, HF duration, treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, transient ischemic attack/stroke, any previous HFH, and heart rate. This model showed good discrimination (C statistic at 1 year, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.75) in both validation cohorts (C statistic at 1 year, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74 in PARAGON-HF and 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.78 in I-PRESERVE) and calibration. The model showed similar discrimination to a biomarker-driven model including high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and significantly better discrimination than the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) risk score (C statistic at 1 year, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.58-0.63; delta C statistic, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.10-0.15; P < .001) and NT-proBNP level alone (C statistic at 1 year, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.68; delta C statistic, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.05-0.08; P < .001). Models derived for the prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular death also performed well. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk. Conclusions and Relevance In this prognostic study, a robust prediction model for clinical outcomes in HFpEF was developed and validated using routinely collected variables. The model performed better than NT-proBNP level alone. The model may help clinicians to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment decisions in HFpEF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kirsty McDowell
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Toru Kondo
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
- Department of Cardiology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
| | - Atefeh Talebi
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Ken Teh
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Erasmus Bachus
- Department of Clinical Science, Lunds University Faculty of Medicine, Malmoe, Sweden
| | - Rudolf A. de Boer
- Erasmus Medical Centre, Department of Cardiology, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Ross T. Campbell
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Brian Claggett
- Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Ashkay S. Desai
- Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Kieran F. Docherty
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | | | - Silvio E. Inzucchi
- Section of Endocrinology, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut
| | - Mikhail N. Kosiborod
- Saint Luke’s Mid America Heart Institute, University of Missouri-Kansas City, Kansas City
| | - Carolyn S. P. Lam
- National Heart Centre Singapore, Singapore
- Cardiovascular Sciences Academic Clinical Programme, Duke-National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Felipe Martinez
- Instituto DAMIC, Cordoba National University, Cordoba, Argentina
| | - Joanne Simpson
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Muthiah Vaduganathan
- Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Pardeep S. Jhund
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Scott D. Solomon
- Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - John J. V. McMurray
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
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5
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Han Y, Lu J, Chen B, Li X, Dai H, Zhang L, Yan X, Liu J, Zhang H, Fu X, Yu Q, Ren J, Cui H, Gao Y, Li J. A novel polygenic risk score improves prognostic prediction of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in the Chinese Han population. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2023; 30:1382-1390. [PMID: 37343143 DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwad209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Revised: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 06/19/2023] [Indexed: 06/23/2023]
Abstract
AIMS Mortality risk assessment in patients with heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) presents a major challenge. We sought to construct a polygenic risk score (PRS) to accurately predict the mortality risk of HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS We first carried out a microarray analysis of 50 HFpEF patients who died and 50 matched controls who survived during 1-year follow-up for candidate gene selection. The HF-PRS was developed using the independent common (MAF > 0.05) genetic variants that showed significant associations with 1-year all-cause death (P < 0.05) in 1442 HFpEF patients. Internal cross-validation and subgroup analyses were performed to evaluate the discrimination ability of the HF-PRS. In 209 genes identified by microarray analysis, 69 independent variants (r < 0.1) were selected to develop the HF-PRS model. This model yielded the best discrimination capability for 1-year all-cause mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.852 (95% CI 0.827-0.877), which outperformed the clinical risk score consisting of 10 significant traditional risk factors for 1-year all-cause mortality (AUC 0.696, 95% CI 0.658-0.734, P = 4 × 10-11), with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 0.741 (95% CI 0.605-0.877; P < 0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of 0.181 (95% CI 0.145-0.218; P < 0.001). Individuals in the medium and the highest tertile of the HF-PRS had nearly a five-fold (HR = 5.3, 95% CI 2.4-11.9; P = 5.6 × 10-5) and 30-fold (HR = 29.8, 95% CI 14.0-63.5; P = 1.4 × 10-18) increased risk of mortality compared to those in the lowest tertile, respectively. The discrimination ability of the HF-PRS was excellent in cross validation and throughout the subgroups regardless of comorbidities, gender, and patients with or without a history of heart failure. CONCLUSION The HF-PRS comprising 69 genetic variants provided an improvement of prognostic power over the contemporary risk scores and NT-proBNP in HFpEF patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Han
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Jiapeng Lu
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Bowang Chen
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Xi Li
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Hao Dai
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Lihua Zhang
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Xiaofang Yan
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Jiamin Liu
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Haibo Zhang
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Xin Fu
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 1 Jianshe East Road, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Qin Yu
- Department of Cardiology, Affiliated Zhongshan Hospital of Dalian University, 6 Jiefang Street, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China
| | - Jie Ren
- Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, 277 Yanta West Road, Yanta District, Xian, China
| | - Hanbin Cui
- Department of Cardiology, Ningbo First Hospital, Ningbo University, 59 Liuting Street, Haishu District, Ningbo, China
| | - Yan Gao
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
| | - Jing Li
- National Clinical Research Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Fuwai Hospital, 167 Beilishi Road, Beijing, 100037, China
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6
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Coiro S, Huttin O, Kobayashi M, Lamiral Z, Simonovic D, Zannad F, Rossignol P, Girerd N. Validation of the MEDIA echo score for the prognosis of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Heart Fail Rev 2023; 28:453-464. [PMID: 36038694 DOI: 10.1007/s10741-022-10266-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
There is currently no widely used prognostic score in heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). The MEDIA echo score, including four variables (pulmonary arterial systolic pressure > 40 mmHg, inferior vena cava collapsibility index < 50%, average E/e' > 9, and lateral mitral annular s' < 7 cm/s), has been proposed as a useful risk stratification tool. This study aimed at further validating the MEDIA echo score in both hospitalised and ambulatory HFpEF patients. The MEDIA echo score ranges from 0 to 4 (each criterion scores 1 point). The associations between MEDIA echo score and cardiovascular outcomes were assessed in two independent HFpEF cohorts, namely patients hospitalised for worsening HFpEF (N = 242, mean age 78 ± 11), and stable ambulatory HFpEF patients (N = 76, mean age 65 ± 8). Using multivariable Cox models, in the worsening HFpEF cohort, patients with a MEDIA echo score of 3-4 displayed a significant increased risk of death (HR 2.10, 95%CI 1.02-4.33, P = 0.043, score 0-1 as reference). In the ambulatory HFpEF cohort, patients with a MEDIA echo score of 2 had a significantly higher risk of death or HF hospitalisation (HR 3.44, 95%CI 1.27-9.30, P = 0.015, score 0 as reference), driven by HF hospitalisation; in that cohort, adding the MEDIA echo score to the clinical model significantly improved reclassification for the combined endpoint (integrated discrimination improvement 6.2%, P = 0.006). The MEDIA echo score significantly predicted the outcome of HFpEF patients in both hospital and ambulatory settings; its use may help refine routine risk stratification on top of well-established prognosticators in stable HFpEF patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stefano Coiro
- Cardiology Department, Santa Maria Della Misericordia Hospital, Perugia, Italy.,Centre D'Investigation Clinique-Plurithématique Inserm CIC-P 1433, Inserm U1116, CHRU Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists), Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | - Olivier Huttin
- Centre D'Investigation Clinique-Plurithématique Inserm CIC-P 1433, Inserm U1116, CHRU Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists), Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | - Masatake Kobayashi
- Centre D'Investigation Clinique-Plurithématique Inserm CIC-P 1433, Inserm U1116, CHRU Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists), Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | - Zohra Lamiral
- Centre D'Investigation Clinique-Plurithématique Inserm CIC-P 1433, Inserm U1116, CHRU Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists), Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | - Dejan Simonovic
- Institute for Treatment and Rehabilitation "Niska Banja", Clinic of Cardiology, University of Nis School of Medicine, Nis, Serbia
| | - Faiez Zannad
- Centre D'Investigation Clinique-Plurithématique Inserm CIC-P 1433, Inserm U1116, CHRU Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists), Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | - Patrick Rossignol
- Centre D'Investigation Clinique-Plurithématique Inserm CIC-P 1433, Inserm U1116, CHRU Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists), Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France
| | - Nicolas Girerd
- Centre D'Investigation Clinique-Plurithématique Inserm CIC-P 1433, Inserm U1116, CHRU Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists), Université de Lorraine, Nancy, France.
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7
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Lin S, Yang Z, Liu Y, Bi Y, Liu Y, Zhang Z, Zhang X, Jia Z, Wang X, Mao J. Risk Prediction Models and Novel Prognostic Factors for Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Systematic and Comprehensive Review. Curr Pharm Des 2023; 29:1992-2008. [PMID: 37644795 PMCID: PMC10614113 DOI: 10.2174/1381612829666230830105740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Revised: 06/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/21/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have large individual differences, unclear risk stratification, and imperfect treatment plans. Risk prediction models are helpful for the dynamic assessment of patients' prognostic risk and early intensive therapy of high-risk patients. The purpose of this study is to systematically summarize the existing risk prediction models and novel prognostic factors for HFpEF, to provide a reference for the construction of convenient and efficient HFpEF risk prediction models. METHODS Studies on risk prediction models and prognostic factors for HFpEF were systematically searched in relevant databases including PubMed and Embase. The retrieval time was from inception to February 1, 2023. The Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool was used to assess the risk of bias in included studies. The predictive value of risk prediction models for end outcomes was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, the area under the curve, C-statistic, C-index, etc. In the literature screening process, potential novel prognostic factors with high value were explored. RESULTS A total of 21 eligible HFpEF risk prediction models and 22 relevant studies were included. Except for 2 studies with a high risk of bias and 2 studies with a moderate risk of bias, other studies that proposed risk prediction models had a low risk of bias overall. Potential novel prognostic factors for HFpEF were classified and described in terms of demographic characteristics (age, sex, and race), lifestyle (physical activity, body mass index, weight change, and smoking history), laboratory tests (biomarkers), physical inspection (blood pressure, electrocardiogram, imaging examination), and comorbidities. CONCLUSION It is of great significance to explore the potential novel prognostic factors of HFpEF and build a more convenient and efficient risk prediction model for improving the overall prognosis of patients. This review can provide a substantial reference for further research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shanshan Lin
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
- Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 10, Poyang Lake Road, West Tuanpo New Town, Jinghai District, Tianjin 301617, China
| | - Zhihua Yang
- Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 10, Poyang Lake Road, West Tuanpo New Town, Jinghai District, Tianjin 301617, China
| | - Yangxi Liu
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
- Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 10, Poyang Lake Road, West Tuanpo New Town, Jinghai District, Tianjin 301617, China
| | - Yingfei Bi
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
| | - Yu Liu
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
| | - Zeyu Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
- Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 10, Poyang Lake Road, West Tuanpo New Town, Jinghai District, Tianjin 301617, China
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
- Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 10, Poyang Lake Road, West Tuanpo New Town, Jinghai District, Tianjin 301617, China
| | - Zhuangzhuang Jia
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
| | - Xianliang Wang
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
| | - Jingyuan Mao
- Department of Cardiovascular, First Teaching Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine/National Clinical Research Center for Chinese Medicine Acupuncture and Moxibustion, No. 88, Changling Road, Xiqing District, Tianjin 300381, China
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8
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Zhou H, Zhan R, Chen X, Lin Y, Zhang S, Zheng H, Wang X, Huang M, Xu C, Liao X, Tian T, Zhuang X. Targeting efficacy of spironolactone in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the TOPCAT study. ESC Heart Fail 2022; 10:322-333. [PMID: 36221795 PMCID: PMC9871668 DOI: 10.1002/ehf2.14068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2022] [Revised: 05/29/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS We aimed to explore the heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) for spironolactone treatment in patients with Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and examine the efficacy and safety of spironolactone medication, ensuring a better individualized therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS We used the causal forest algorithm to discover the heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from patients in the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist (TOPCAT) trial. Cox regressions were performed to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) of spironolactone medication for cardiovascular death and drug discontinuation in each group. The causal forest model revealed three representative covariates and participants were partitioned into four subgroups which were Group 1 (baseline BMI ≤ 31.71 kg/m2 and baseline ALP ≤ 80 U/L, n = 759); Group 2 (BMI ≤ 31.71 kg/m2 and ALP > 80 U/L, n = 1088); Group 3 (BMI > 31.71 kg/m2 , and WBC ≤ 6.6 cells/μL, n = 633); Group 4 (BMI > 31.71 kg/m2 and WBC > 6.6 cells/μL, n = 832), respectively. In the four subgroups, spironolactone therapy reduced the risk of cardiovascular death in high-risk group (Group 4) with both high BMI and WBC count (HR: 0.76; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.99; P = 0.045) but increased the risk in low-risk group (Group 1) with both low BMI and ALP (HR: 1.45; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.07; P = 0.041; P for interaction = 0.020) but showed similar risk of drug discontinuation (P for interaction = 0.498). CONCLUSION Our study manifested the HTEs of spironolactone in patients with HFpEF. Spironolactone treatment in HFpEF patients is feasible and effective in patients with high BMI and WBC while harmful in patients with low BMI and ALP. Machine learning model could be meaningful for improved categorization of patients with HFpEF, ensuring a better individualized therapy in the clinical setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui‐min Zhou
- Cardiology DepartmentThe First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat‐Sen University)GuangzhouChina
| | - Rong‐jian Zhan
- Zhongshan School of MedicineSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Xuanyu Chen
- School of MathematicsSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Yi‐fen Lin
- Cardiology DepartmentThe First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat‐Sen University)GuangzhouChina
| | - Shao‐zhao Zhang
- Cardiology DepartmentThe First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat‐Sen University)GuangzhouChina
| | - Huigan Zheng
- School of MathematicsSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Xueqin Wang
- School of ManagementUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefeiChina
| | - Meng‐ting Huang
- Cardiology DepartmentThe First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat‐Sen University)GuangzhouChina
| | - Chao‐guang Xu
- Cardiology DepartmentThe First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat‐Sen University)GuangzhouChina
| | - Xin‐xue Liao
- Cardiology DepartmentThe First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat‐Sen University)GuangzhouChina
| | - Ting Tian
- School of MathematicsSun Yat‐sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
| | - Xiao‐dong Zhuang
- Cardiology DepartmentThe First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat‐Sen University)GuangzhouChina
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9
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Pocock SJ, Ferreira JP, Packer M, Zannad F, Filippatos G, Kondo T, McMurray JJ, Solomon SD, Januzzi JL, Iwata T, Salsali A, Butler J, Anker SD. Biomarker-driven prognostic models in chronic heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the EMPEROR-Preserved trial. Eur J Heart Fail 2022; 24:1869-1878. [PMID: 35796209 PMCID: PMC9796853 DOI: 10.1002/ejhf.2607] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2022] [Revised: 07/01/2022] [Accepted: 07/02/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
AIMS Biomarker-driven prognostic models incorporating N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) in heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are lacking. We aimed to generate a biomarker-driven prognostic tool for patients with chronic HFpEF enrolled in EMPEROR-Preserved. METHODS AND RESULTS Multivariable Cox regression models were created for (i) the primary composite outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death, (ii) all-cause death, (iii) cardiovascular death, and (iv) HF hospitalization. PARAGON-HF was used as a validation cohort. NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were the dominant predictors of the primary outcome, and in addition, a shorter time since last hospitalization, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III or IV, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), insulin-treated diabetes, low haemoglobin, and a longer time since HF diagnosis were key predictors (eight variables, all p < 0.001). The consequent primary outcome risk score discriminated well (c-statistic = 0.75) with patients in the top 10th of risk having an event rate >22× higher than those in the bottom 10th. A model for HF hospitalization alone had even better discrimination (c = 0.79). Empagliflozin reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for HF in patients across all risk levels. NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were also the dominant predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality followed by history of COPD, low albumin, older age, left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%, NYHA class III or IV and insulin-treated diabetes (eight variables, all p < 0.001). The mortality risk model had similar discrimination for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (c-statistic = 0.72 for both). External validation provided c-statistics of 0.71, 0.71, 0.72, and 0.72 for the primary outcome, HF hospitalization alone, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The combination of NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT along with a few readily available clinical variables provides effective risk discrimination both for morbidity and mortality in patients with HFpEF. A predictive tool-kit facilitates the ready implementation of these risk models in routine clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stuart J. Pocock
- Department of Medical StatisticsLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - João Pedro Ferreira
- UnIC@Rise, Department of Surgery and Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, Cardiovascular Research and Development CenterUniversity of PortoPortoPortugal,Inserm, Centre d'Investigations Cliniques Plurithématique 1433, and Inserm U1116, CHRU, F‐CRIN INI‐CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists)Université de LorraineNancyFrance
| | - Milton Packer
- Baylor Heart and Vascular HospitalBaylor University Medical CenterDallasTXUSA,Imperial CollegeLondonUK
| | - Faiez Zannad
- Inserm, Centre d'Investigations Cliniques Plurithématique 1433, and Inserm U1116, CHRU, F‐CRIN INI‐CRCT (Cardiovascular and Renal Clinical Trialists)Université de LorraineNancyFrance
| | - Gerasimos Filippatos
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, School of Medicine, Department of CardiologyAttikon University HospitalAthensGreece
| | - Toru Kondo
- Department of CardiologyNagoya University Graduate School of MedicineNagoyaJapan,British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research CentreUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
| | - John J.V. McMurray
- British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research CentreUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
| | - Scott D. Solomon
- Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's HospitalHarvard Medical SchoolBostonMAUSA
| | | | - Tomoko Iwata
- Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KGBiberachGermany
| | - Afshin Salsali
- Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma GmbH & Co. KGBiberachGermany
| | - Javed Butler
- Baylor Scott and White Research InstituteDallasTXUSA,Department of MedicineUniversity of Mississippi Medical CenterJacksonMSUSA
| | - Stefan D. Anker
- Department of Cardiology, and Berlin Institute of Health Center for Regenerative Therapies, German Centre for Cardiovascular Research Partner Site BerlinCharité UniversitätsmedizinBerlinGermany
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10
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Zhao HL, Gao XL, Liu YH, Li SL, Zhang Q, Shan WC, Zheng Q, Zhou J, Liu YZ, Liu L, Guo N, Tian HS, Wei QM, Hu XT, Cui YK, Geng X, Wang Q, Cui W. Validation and derivation of short-term prognostic risk score in acute decompensated heart failure in China. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2022; 22:307. [PMID: 35799104 PMCID: PMC9264535 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-022-02743-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2022] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Few prognostic risk scores (PRSs) have been routinely used in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We, therefore, externally validated three published PRSs (3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF) and derived a new PRS to predict the short-term prognosis in ADHF. Methods A total of 4550 patients from the Heb-ADHF registry in China were randomly divided into the derivation and validation cohorts (3:2). Discrimination of each PRS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Logistic regression was exploited to select the predictors and create the new PRS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess the calibration of the new PRS. Results The AUROCs of the 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in the derivation cohort were 0.55 (95% CI 0.53–0.57), 0.54 (95% CI 0.53–0.56), and 0.56 (95% CI 0.54–0.57), respectively. After logistic regression analysis, the new PRS computed as 1 × (diastolic blood pressure < 80 mmHg) + 2 × (lymphocyte > 1.11 × 109/L) + 1 × (creatinine > 80 μmol/L) + 2 × (blood urea nitrogen > 21 mg/dL) + 1 × [BNP 500 to < 1500 pg/mL (NT-proBNP 2500 to < 7500 pg/mL)] or 3 × [BNP ≥ 1500 (NT-proBNP ≥ 7500) pg/mL] + 3 × (QRS fraction of electrocardiogram < 55%) + 4 × (ACEI/ARB not used) + 1 × (rhBNP used), with a better AUROC of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64–0.70) and a good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 = 3.366, P = 0.186). The results in validation cohort verified these findings. Conclusions The short-term prognostic values of 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in ADHF patients were all poor, while the new PRS exhibited potential predictive ability. We demonstrated the QRS fraction of electrocardiogram as a novel predictor for the short-term outcomes of ADHF for the first time. Our findings might help to recognize high-risk ADHF patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-Liang Zhao
- First Division, Department of Cardiology, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Heping West Road No. 215, Shijiazhuang, 050000, Hebei province, China.,Department of Cardiology, The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, 050031, Hebei province, China
| | - Xiao-Li Gao
- Department of Cardiology, Huabei Petroleum Administration Bureau General Hospital, Renqiu, 062552, Hebei Province, China
| | - Ying-Hua Liu
- Department of Cardiology, Huabei Petroleum Administration Bureau General Hospital, Renqiu, 062552, Hebei Province, China
| | - Sen-Lin Li
- Department of Cardiology, Zhangjiakou First Hospital, Zhangjiakou, 075000, Hebei Province, China
| | - Qi Zhang
- Department of Cardiology, Baoding First Central Hospital, Baoding, 071000, Hebei Province, China
| | - Wei-Chao Shan
- Department of Cardiology, Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical University, Chengde, 067000, Hebei Province, China
| | - Qun Zheng
- Department of Cardiology, Hengshui People's Hospital, Hengshui, 053000, Hebei Province, China
| | - Jiang Zhou
- Department of Cardiology, Chengde Central Hospital, Chengde, 067024, Hebei Province, China
| | - Yong-Zheng Liu
- Department of Cardiology, Qinhuangdao First Hospital, Qinhuangdao, 066099, Hebei Province, China
| | - Li Liu
- Department of Cardiology, Qinhuangdao First Hospital, Qinhuangdao, 066099, Hebei Province, China
| | - Nan Guo
- Department of Cardiology, Cangzhou Central Hospital, Cangzhou, 061011, Hebei Province, China
| | - Hong-Sen Tian
- Department of Cardiology, Handan Central Hospital, Handan, 056000, Hebei Province, China
| | - Qing-Min Wei
- Department of Cardiology, Xingtai People's Hospital, Xingtai, 054001, Hebei Province, China
| | - Xi-Tian Hu
- Department of Cardiology, Shijiazhuang People's Hospital, Shijiazhuang, 050011, Hebei Province, China
| | - Ying-Kai Cui
- Department of Cardiology, The 252nd Hospital of People's Liberation Army, Baoding, 071000, Hebei Province, China
| | - Xue Geng
- First Division, Department of Cardiology, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Heping West Road No. 215, Shijiazhuang, 050000, Hebei province, China
| | - Qian Wang
- First Division, Department of Cardiology, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Heping West Road No. 215, Shijiazhuang, 050000, Hebei province, China
| | - Wei Cui
- First Division, Department of Cardiology, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Heping West Road No. 215, Shijiazhuang, 050000, Hebei province, China.
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11
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Abstract
Heart failure has many causes. Although new drugs, devices and technologies are available, the survival rate and prognosis of patients with heart failure remain poor, placing a significant burden on individuals and society. Attempts to improve outcomes for patients with heart failure include developing prognostic risk scores. With medical advances, however, previous heart failure risk scores are not fully applicable to current practice, particularly because of the classification as heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction, and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. This article describes the use of risk prediction scores for heart failure patients with different clinical status and discusses their clinical applicability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-Liang Zhao
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
- Department of Cardiology, The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Wei Cui
- Department of Cardiology, The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
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12
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Wang CH, Han S, Tong F, Li Y, Li ZC, Sun ZJ. Risk prediction model of in-hospital mortality in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and mid-range ejection fraction: a retrospective cohort study. Biomark Med 2021; 15:1223-1232. [PMID: 34498488 DOI: 10.2217/bmm-2021-0025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim: To develop and validate internally a multivariate risk model for predicting the in-hospital mortality of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF). Methods & results: The clinical data of 8172 inpatients with HFpEF and HFmrEF was used to establish a retrospective database. These patients, among whom 307 in-hospital deaths (3.8%) occurred, were randomly assigned to derivation and verification cohort. Among the extracted data from the derivation cohort were nine variables significantly related to in-hospital mortality, which were scored 0-4, for a total score of 24, which allowed formation of a risk predictive model. The verification cohort was then used to validate the discrimination and calibration capacities of this predictive model: the area under curve equaled 0.8575 (0.8285, 0.8865) for the derivation cohort, and 0.8323 (0.7999, 0.8646) for the verification cohort. According to this risk score, we divided patients into four risk classes (low-, medium-, high- and extremely high-risk) and revealed that the risk of in-hospital mortality increased with increasing risk class with an obvious linear relationship between actual and predicted mortality (r = 0.998, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The model based on nine common clinical variables should provide an accurate prediction of in-hospital mortality and appears to be a reliable risk classification system for patients with HFpEF and HFmrEF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chuan-He Wang
- Department of Cardiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, 39 Huaxiang Road, Tiexi Zone, Shenyang, China
| | - Su Han
- Department of Cardiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, 39 Huaxiang Road, Tiexi Zone, Shenyang, China
| | - Fei Tong
- Department of Cardiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, 39 Huaxiang Road, Tiexi Zone, Shenyang, China
| | - Ying Li
- Department of Cardiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, 39 Huaxiang Road, Tiexi Zone, Shenyang, China
| | - Zhi-Chao Li
- Department of Cardiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, 39 Huaxiang Road, Tiexi Zone, Shenyang, China
| | - Zhi-Jun Sun
- Department of Cardiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, 39 Huaxiang Road, Tiexi Zone, Shenyang, China
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13
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Seferović PM, Polovina M, Veljić I. Embracing the unknown: risk stratification in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction with the EPYC score. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2021; 28:1662-1664. [PMID: 34339494 DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwab054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Petar M Seferović
- Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade 11000, Serbia.,University of Belgrade, Faculty of Medicine, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
| | - Marija Polovina
- University of Belgrade, Faculty of Medicine, Belgrade 11000, Serbia.,Department of Cardiology, University Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Ivana Veljić
- Department of Cardiology, University Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia
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14
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Faragli A, Tano GD, Carlini CD, Nassiacos D, Gori M, Confortola G, Lo Muzio FP, Rapis K, Abawi D, Post H, Kelle S, Pieske B, Alogna A, Campana C. In-hospital Heart Rate Reduction With Beta Blockers and Ivabradine Early After Recovery in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Reduces Short-Term Mortality and Rehospitalization. Front Cardiovasc Med 2021; 8:665202. [PMID: 34395550 PMCID: PMC8363305 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2021.665202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective: In the past years, heart rate (HR) has emerged as a highly relevant modifiable risk factor for heart failure (HF) patients. However, most of the clinical trials so far evaluated the role of HR in stable chronic HF cohorts. The aim of this multi-center, prospective observational study was to assess the association between HR and therapy with HR modulators (beta blockers, ivabradine, or a combination of ivabradine and beta blockers) at hospital discharge with patients' cardiovascular mortality and re-hospitalization at 6 months in acutely decompensated HF patients. Materials and Methods: We recruited 289 HF patients discharged alive after admission for HF decompensation from 10 centers in northern Italy over 9 months (from April 2017 to January 2018). The primary endpoint was the combination of cardiovascular mortality or re-hospitalizations for HF at 6 months. Results: At 6 months after discharge, 64 patients were readmitted (32%), and 39 patients died (16%). Multivariate analysis showed that HR at discharge ≥ 90 bpm (OR = 8.47; p = 0.016) independently predicted cardiovascular mortality, while therapy with beta blockers at discharge was found to reduce the risk of the composite endpoint. In patients receiving HR modulators the event rates for the composite endpoint, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality were lower than in patients not receiving HR modulators. Conclusions: Heart rate at discharge ≥90 bpm predicts cardiovascular mortality, while therapy with beta blockers is negatively associated with the composite endpoint of cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization at 6 months in acutely decompensated HF patients. Patients receiving a HR modulation therapy at hospital discharge showed the lowest rate of cardiovascular mortality and re-hospitalization.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessandro Faragli
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany.,DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Department of Internal Medicine/Cardiology, Deutsches Herzzentrum Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Giuseppe Di Tano
- Department of Cardiology Ospedale Maggiore, ASST Cremona, Cremona, Italy
| | | | - Daniel Nassiacos
- Department of Cardiology, Ospedale di Circolo, ASST Valle Olona, Saronno VA, Italy
| | - Mauro Gori
- Department of Cardiology, ASST Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXXIII, Bergamo, Italy
| | - Giada Confortola
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Francesco Paolo Lo Muzio
- Department of Surgery, Dentistry, Paediatrics and Gynaecology, University of Verona, Verona, Italy.,Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Parma, Parma, Italy
| | - Konstantinos Rapis
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Dawud Abawi
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Heiner Post
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany.,DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Department of Cardiology, Contilia Heart and Vessel Centre, St. Marien-Hospital Mülheim, Mülheim, Germany
| | - Sebastian Kelle
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Department of Internal Medicine/Cardiology, Deutsches Herzzentrum Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Burkert Pieske
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany.,DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Department of Internal Medicine/Cardiology, Deutsches Herzzentrum Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Alessio Alogna
- Department of Internal Medicine and Cardiology, Campus Virchow-Klinikum, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany.,DZHK (German Centre for Cardiovascular Research), Partner Site Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Carlo Campana
- Department of Cardiology Sant'Anna Hospital, ASST-Lariana, Como, Italy
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15
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Toumpourleka M, Patoulias D, Katsimardou A, Doumas M, Papadopoulos C. Risk Scores and Prediction Models in Chronic Heart Failure: A Comprehensive Review. Curr Pharm Des 2021; 27:1289-1297. [PMID: 32436819 DOI: 10.2174/1381612826666200521141249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2020] [Accepted: 05/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heart failure affects a substantial proportion of the adult population, with an estimated prevalence of 1-2% in developed countries. Over the previous decades, many prediction models have been introduced for this specific population in an attempt to better stratify and manage heart failure patients. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is the systematic review of recent, relevant literature regarding risk scores or prediction models in ambulatory patients with an established diagnosis of chronic heart failure. METHODS We conducted a systematic search of the literature in PubMed and CENTRAL from their inception up till December 2019 for studies assessing the performance of risk scores and prediction models and original research studies. Grey literature was searched as well. This review is reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. RESULTS We included 16 eligible studies in this systematic review. Major heart failure risk scores derived from large heart failure populations were among the included studies. Due to significant heterogeneity regarding the main endpoints, a direct comparison of the included prediction scores was inevitable. The majority referred to patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, while only two out of 16 prediction scores have been developed exclusively for heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction. Ischemic heart disease was the most common aetiology of heart failure in the included studies. Finally, more than half of the prediction scores have not been externally validated. CONCLUSION Prediction models aiming at heart failure patients with a preserved or mid-range ejection fraction are lacking. Prediction scores incorporating recent advances in pharmacotherapy should be developed in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Toumpourleka
- Third Department of Cardiology, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Dimitrios Patoulias
- 2nd Propedeutic Department of Internal Medicine, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Alexandra Katsimardou
- 2nd Propedeutic Department of Internal Medicine, Aristotle University, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Michael Doumas
- VA Medical Center and George Washington University, Washington, DC, United States
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16
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Risk Stratification and Efficacy of Spironolactone in Patients with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction: Secondary Analysis of the TOPCAT Randomized Clinical Trial. Cardiovasc Drugs Ther 2021; 36:323-331. [PMID: 33791916 DOI: 10.1007/s10557-021-07178-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE We aimed to develop a simple risk score for patients with HFpEF and assessed the efficacy of spironolactone across baseline risk. METHODS We developed risk stratification scheme for cardiovascular death in placebo arm of the Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure with an Aldosterone Antagonist trial (TOPCAT). We screened candidate risk indicators and determined strong risk predictors using COX regression. The absolute risk reduction (ARR) in cardiovascular death with spironolactone was evaluated across baseline risk groups. COX regressions were performed to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) of spironolactone therapy for cardiovascular death and drug discontinuation in each risk category. RESULTS A simple risk score scheme was constructed based on five risk indicators weighted by estimates from the model, including age, diastolic blood pressure, renal dysfunction, white blood cell, and left ventricular ejection fraction. The risk score scheme showed good discrimination in placebo cohort (C index=0.70). ARR with spironolactone therapy was observed only in patients at very high risk (7.9%). Spironolactone therapy significantly reduced the risk of cardiovascular death in the very high-risk group (HR: 0.57; 95%CI, 0.39-0.84; P =0.005 and P for interaction 0.03) but showed similar risk of drug discontinuation across risk categories (P for interaction=0.928). CONCLUSION This simple risk score stratifies patients with HFpEF by their baseline risk of cardiovascular death. Patients at very high risk derive great benefits from spironolactone therapy. This easy-to-use risk score provides a practical tool that can facilitate risk stratification and tailoring therapy for those who benefit most from spironolactone. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00094302.
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17
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Liang W, Wu Y, Xue R, Wu Z, Wu D, He J, Dong Y, Lip GYH, Zhu W, Liu C. C 2HEST score predicts clinical outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: a secondary analysis of the TOPCAT trial. BMC Med 2021; 19:44. [PMID: 33596909 PMCID: PMC7890599 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01921-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2020] [Accepted: 01/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The C2HEST score has been validated for predicting AF in the general population or post-stroke patients. We aimed to assess whether this risk score could predict incident AF and other clinical outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) patients. METHODS A total of 2202 HFpEF patients without baseline AF in the TOPCAT trial were stratified by baseline C2HEST score. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk regression model was used to explore the relationship between C2HEST score and outcomes, including incident AF, stroke, all-cause death, cardiovascular death, any hospitalization, and HF hospitalization. The discriminative ability of the C2HEST score for various outcomes was assessed by calculating the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS The incidence rates of incident AF, stroke, all-cause death, cardiovascular death, any hospitalization, and HF hospitalization were 1.79, 0.70, 3.81, 2.42, 15.50, and 3.32 per 100 person-years, respectively. When the C2HEST score was analyzed as a continuous variable, increased C2HEST score was associated with increased risk of incident AF (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.29-1.75), as well as increased risks of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, any hospitalization, and HF hospitalization. The AUC for the C2HEST score in predicting incident AF (0.694, 95% CI 0.640-0.748) was higher than all-cause death, cardiovascular death, any hospitalization, or HF hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS The C2HEST score could predict the risk of incident AF as well as death and hospitalization with moderately good predictive abilities in patients with HFpEF. Its simplicity may allow the possibility of quick risk assessments in busy clinical settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weihao Liang
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuzhong Wu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China
| | - Ruicong Xue
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China
| | - Zexuan Wu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China
| | - Dexi Wu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China
| | - Jiangui He
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China
| | - Yugang Dong
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.,National-Guangdong Joint Engineering Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Vascular Diseases, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China
| | - Gregory Y H Lip
- Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Sciences, Institute of Ageing and Chronic Disease, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.,Aalborg Thrombosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - Wengen Zhu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China. .,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China.
| | - Chen Liu
- Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China. .,NHC Key Laboratory of Assisted Circulation (Sun Yat-sen University), Guangzhou, 510080, People's Republic of China. .,National-Guangdong Joint Engineering Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Vascular Diseases, Guangzhou, People's Republic of China.
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18
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Chen Y, Voors AA, Jaarsma T, Lang CC, Sama IE, Akkerhuis KM, Boersma E, Hillege HL, Postmus D. A heart failure phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure: results from an individual participant data meta-analysis of four prospective European cohorts. BMC Med 2021; 19:21. [PMID: 33499866 PMCID: PMC7839199 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01894-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2020] [Accepted: 12/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. METHODS Four prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS 3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF < 40%), 588 as having HF with midrange EF (HFmrEF; EF 40-49%), and 621 as having HF with preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥ 50%). A total of 11 readily available variables built up the prognostic index. For four of these predictor variables, namely systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, the effect differed across the three HF phenotypes. With a weighted IECV-adjusted AUC of 0.79 (0.74-0.83) for HFrEF, 0.74 (0.70-0.79) for HFmrEF, and 0.74 (0.71-0.77) for HFpEF, the model showed excellent discrimination. Moreover, there was a good agreement between the average observed and predicted 1-year mortality risks, especially after recalibration of the baseline mortality risks. CONCLUSIONS Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuntao Chen
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, P.O. Box 30.001, 9700 RB, Groningen, the Netherlands.
| | - Adriaan A Voors
- Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Tiny Jaarsma
- Department of Social and Welfare Studies, Faculty of Health Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Chim C Lang
- Division of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, University of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, Dundee, UK
| | - Iziah E Sama
- Department of Cardiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - K Martijn Akkerhuis
- Department of Cardiology, Thoraxcenter, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Eric Boersma
- Department of Cardiology, Thoraxcenter, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Hans L Hillege
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, P.O. Box 30.001, 9700 RB, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Douwe Postmus
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, P.O. Box 30.001, 9700 RB, Groningen, the Netherlands
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19
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Chicco D, Jurman G. Machine learning can predict survival of patients with heart failure from serum creatinine and ejection fraction alone. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2020; 20:16. [PMID: 32013925 PMCID: PMC6998201 DOI: 10.1186/s12911-020-1023-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 97] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2019] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular diseases kill approximately 17 million people globally every year, and they mainly exhibit as myocardial infarctions and heart failures. Heart failure (HF) occurs when the heart cannot pump enough blood to meet the needs of the body.Available electronic medical records of patients quantify symptoms, body features, and clinical laboratory test values, which can be used to perform biostatistics analysis aimed at highlighting patterns and correlations otherwise undetectable by medical doctors. Machine learning, in particular, can predict patients' survival from their data and can individuate the most important features among those included in their medical records. METHODS In this paper, we analyze a dataset of 299 patients with heart failure collected in 2015. We apply several machine learning classifiers to both predict the patients survival, and rank the features corresponding to the most important risk factors. We also perform an alternative feature ranking analysis by employing traditional biostatistics tests, and compare these results with those provided by the machine learning algorithms. Since both feature ranking approaches clearly identify serum creatinine and ejection fraction as the two most relevant features, we then build the machine learning survival prediction models on these two factors alone. RESULTS Our results of these two-feature models show not only that serum creatinine and ejection fraction are sufficient to predict survival of heart failure patients from medical records, but also that using these two features alone can lead to more accurate predictions than using the original dataset features in its entirety. We also carry out an analysis including the follow-up month of each patient: even in this case, serum creatinine and ejection fraction are the most predictive clinical features of the dataset, and are sufficient to predict patients' survival. CONCLUSIONS This discovery has the potential to impact on clinical practice, becoming a new supporting tool for physicians when predicting if a heart failure patient will survive or not. Indeed, medical doctors aiming at understanding if a patient will survive after heart failure may focus mainly on serum creatinine and ejection fraction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Davide Chicco
- Krembil Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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20
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Bolat I, Biteker M. Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score is a novel predictor of clinical outcome in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. SCAND CARDIOVASC J 2020; 54:174-178. [PMID: 31965867 DOI: 10.1080/14017431.2019.1709656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
Abstract
Objectives. Although the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) has been reported to have prognostic value in patients with various cancers, the association between mGPS and prognosis in patients with heart diseases have not been well studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of mGPS in outcomes of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Design. We prospectively followed consecutive adult patients with HFpEF admitted to the cardiology outpatient unit. Echocardiographic and laboratory data were recorded at enrolment. mGPS was scored as 0, 1, or 2 based on C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin levels. Patients with both elevated CRP (>1 mg/dL) and hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dL) are given mGPS of 2, patients with serum CRP ≤ 1 g/dL with or without hypoalbuminemia received scores of 0. Patients with only elevated CRP levels received mGPS of 1. The primary composite endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization through one year. Results. A total of 315 HFpEF outpatients were included, and 42 (13.3%) reached the primary endpoint at one year of follow-up. Compared to patients without mortality or heart failure-related hospitalization, patients who reached the primary endpoint during follow-up were older, were more likely be symptomatic, had higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and mGPS levels at study entry. Multivariate analysis showed that both NT-proBNP and mGPS were independent predictors of primary composite endpoint. Combining NT-proBNP with mGPS improved its prognostic value with an increase of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.759 to 0.822 (p = .001). Conclusion. This is the first study which demonstrates that mGPS is a predictor of outcomes in patients with HFpEF.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ismail Bolat
- Department of Cardiology, Fethiye Government Hospital, Fethiye, Turkey
| | - Murat Biteker
- Department of Cardiology, Mugla Sıtkı Kocman University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology, Mugla, Turkey
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21
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Seo M, Yamada T, Tamaki S, Hikoso S, Yasumura Y, Higuchi Y, Nakagawa Y, Uematsu M, Abe H, Fuji H, Mano T, Nakatani D, Fukunami M, Sakata Y. Prognostic Significance of Serum Cholinesterase Level in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: Insights From the PURSUIT-HFpEF Registry. J Am Heart Assoc 2019; 9:e014100. [PMID: 31847660 PMCID: PMC6988145 DOI: 10.1161/jaha.119.014100] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Background Malnutrition is one of the most important comorbidities in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. We recently reported the prognostic significance of serum cholinesterase level and superior predictive power of cholinesterase level to other objective nutritional indices such as the controlling nutritional status score, prognostic nutritional index, and geriatric nutritional risk index in patients with acute decompensated heart failure. The aim of this study was to clarify the prognostic role of cholinesterase in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction/acute decompensated heart failure and investigate incremental cholinesterase value. Methods and Results We prospectively studied 274 consecutive patients from the PURSUIT‐HFpEF (Prospective Multicenter Observational Study of Patients with Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction) study. During a follow‐up period of 1.2±0.6 years, 56 patients reached the composite end points (cardiovascular death and readmission for worsening heart failure). In the multivariable Cox analysis, cholinesterase level was significantly associated with the composite end points after adjustment for major confounders. A Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that patients with low cholinesterase levels (stratified by tertile) had significantly greater risk of reaching the composite end points than those with middle or high cholinesterase levels (P=0.0025). Cholinesterase level showed the best C‐statistics (0.703) for prediction of the composite end points among the objective nutritional indices. C‐statistics of the Meta‐Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score for prediction of the composite end points were improved when cholinesterase level was added (C‐statistics, from 0.601 to 0.705; P=0.0408). Conclusions Cholinesterase was a useful prognostic marker for prediction of adverse outcome in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction/acute decompensated heart failure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masahiro Seo
- Division of Cardiology Osaka General Medical Center Osaka Japan
| | - Takahisa Yamada
- Division of Cardiology Osaka General Medical Center Osaka Japan
| | - Shunsuke Tamaki
- Division of Cardiology Osaka General Medical Center Osaka Japan
| | - Shungo Hikoso
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine Osaka Japan
| | - Yoshio Yasumura
- Department of Cardiology Amagasaki Chuo Hospital Amagasaki Japan
| | | | - Yusuke Nakagawa
- Division of Cardiology Kawanishi City Hospital Kawanishi Japan
| | - Masaaki Uematsu
- Cardiovascular Division National Hospital Organization Osaka National Hospital Osaka Japan
| | - Haruhiko Abe
- Cardiovascular Division National Hospital Organization Osaka National Hospital Osaka Japan
| | - Hisakazu Fuji
- Cardiovascular Division Kobe Ekisaikai Hospital Kobe Japan
| | - Toshiaki Mano
- Division of Cardiology Kansai Rosai Hospital Amagasaki Japan
| | - Daisaku Nakatani
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine Osaka Japan
| | | | - Yasushi Sakata
- Division of Cardiovascular Medicine Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine Osaka Japan
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22
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Omote K, Nagai T, Kamiya K, Aikawa T, Tsujinaga S, Kato Y, Komoriyama H, Iwano H, Yamamoto K, Yoshikawa T, Saito Y, Anzai T. Long-term Prognostic Significance of Admission Tricuspid Regurgitation Pressure Gradient in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction: A Report From the Japanese Real-World Multicenter Registry. J Card Fail 2019; 25:978-985. [DOI: 10.1016/j.cardfail.2019.07.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2019] [Revised: 07/11/2019] [Accepted: 07/17/2019] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
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