Ethnic differences in acute heart failure outcomes in Ontario

Which congestion presentation pattern on the physical findings is associated with future adverse events? A cluster analysis in the multicenter acute heart failure registry

BACKGROUND

Clinical congestion is the most frequent reason for hospital admission in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, few studies have investigated the patterns and prognostic implication of the physical congestion using unbiased and robust statistical methods.

METHODS

A hierarchical agglomerative clustering analysis was performed in the multicenter Japanese AHF registry (N = 3151) with the distance calculated by Jaccard's distance for jugular vein distention (JVD), leg edema, S3, crackles, and orthopnea. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac death and heart failure readmission within 1-year.

RESULTS

At the time of admission, the median number of prevalent congestive signs was 2. We identified three phenogroups: 'no physical congestions' (N = 251); 'congestion without JVD' (N = 1415); and 'congestion with JVD' (N = 1495). Patients in 'no physical congestion' were the youngest (median 75 [62, 83] years) with the lowest systolic blood pressure (122 [106, 142] mmHg). Patients in 'congestion without JVD', and 'congestion with JVD' were similar in terms of age (77 [67, 84] vs. 78 [69, 84] years) and systolic blood pressure (138 [118, 160] vs. 137 [118, 158] mmHg). While 30-day mortality was similar (4.0%, 3.7%, and 4.3% in 'no physical congestion,' 'congestion without JVD,' and 'congestion with JVD', respectively), the patients in 'congestion with JVD' were at the highest risk for the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio 1.79, 95% CI 1.26-2.55 when 'no physical congestion' was a reference).

CONCLUSIONS

Our clustering analysis demonstrated that congestion signs, particularly JVD, allowed identification of AHF phenogroups with distinct clinical characteristics and long-term outcomes.

Ethnic differences between South Asians and White Caucasians in cardiovascular disease-related mortality in developed countries: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide, with significantly worse mortality-related outcomes in ethnic minorities in developed countries. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis of observational studies was conducted to investigate cardiovascular disease-related mortality inequalities between South Asian and White Caucasian ethnic groups.

METHODS

Published studies on mortality between South Asians and Whites in developed countries were retrieved from MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and grey literature sources (inception-April 2021) and critically appraised using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Bayesian random-effects meta-analyses were performed for both primary and secondary outcomes. Heterogeneity was determined using the I² statistic.

RESULTS

Of the 9879 studies screened originally, 41 were deemed eligible. A further 3 studies were included via the later search. Of these, 15 reported cardiovascular disease-related mortality, 23 reported all-cause mortality, and 6 reported both. The meta-analysis results showed that South Asians had a significantly increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality compared to Whites (risk ratio = 1.32; 95% credible interval = 1.14 to 1.54) and a decreased risk of all-cause mortality (risk ratio = 0.95; 95% credible interval = 0.83 to 1.12).

DISCUSSION

South Asians had statistically significantly higher odds of cardiovascular disease-related mortality compared to Whites, but not for all-cause mortality. Risk of bias was a serious concern mainly due to a lack of confounders being reported.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO: CRD42021240865.

Association Between Handover of Anesthesiology Care and 1-Year Mortality Among Adults Undergoing Cardiac Surgery

Importance

Handovers of anesthesia care from one anesthesiologist to another is an important intraoperative event. Despite its association with adverse events after noncardiac surgery, its impact in the context of cardiac surgery remains unclear.

Objective

To compare the outcomes of patients who were exposed to anesthesia handover vs those who were unexposed to anesthesia handover during cardiac surgery.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada, included Ontario residents who were 18 years or older and had undergone coronary artery bypass grafting or aortic, mitral, tricuspid valve, or thoracic aorta surgical procedures between 2008 and 2019. Exclusion criteria were non-Ontario residency status and other concomitant procedures. Statistical analysis was conducted from April 2021 to June 2021, and data collection occurred between November 2020 to January 2021.

Exposures

Complete handover of anesthesia care, where the case is completed by the replacement anesthesiologist.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The coprimary outcomes were mortality within 30 days and 1 year after surgery. Secondary outcomes were patient-defined adverse cardiac and noncardiac events (PACE), intensive care unit (ICU), and hospital lengths of stay (LOS). Inverse probability of treatment weighting based on the propensity score was used to estimate adjusted effect measures. Mortality was assessed using a Cox proportional hazard model, PACE using a cause-specific hazard model with death as a competing risk, and LOS using Poisson regression.

Results

Of the 102 156 patients in the cohort, 25 207 (24.7%) were women; the mean (SD) age was 66.4 (10.8) years; and 72 843 of surgical procedures (71.3%) were performed in teaching hospitals. Handover occurred in 1926 patients (1.9%) and was associated with higher risks of 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.89; 95% CI, 1.41-2.54) and 1-year mortality (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.31-2.12), as well as longer ICU (risk ratio [RR], 1.43; 95% CI, 1.22-1.68) and hospital (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06-1.28) LOS. There was no statistically significant association between handover and PACE (30 days: HR 1.09; 95% CI, 0.79-1.49; 1 year: HR 0.89; 95% CI, 0.70-1.13).

Conclusions and Relevance

Handover of anesthesia care during cardiac surgical procedures was associated with higher 30-day and 1-year mortality rates and increased health care resource use. Further research is needed to evaluate and systematically improve the handover process qualitatively.

Derivation and validation of a clinical risk score to predict death among patients awaiting cardiac surgery in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Surgical delay may result in unintended harm to patients needing cardiac surgery, who are at risk for death if their condition is left untreated. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a clinical risk score to predict death among patients awaiting major cardiac surgery.

METHODS

We used the CorHealth Ontario Registry and linked ICES health administrative databases with information on all Ontario residents to identify patients aged 18 years or more who were referred for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valvular procedures, combined CABG-valvular procedures or thoracic aorta procedures between Oct. 1, 2008, and Sept. 30, 2019. We used a hybrid modelling approach with the random forest method for initial variable selection, followed by backward stepwise logistic regression modelling for clinical interpretability and parsimony. We internally validated the logistic regression model, termed the CardiOttawa Waitlist Mortality Score, using 200 bootstraps.

RESULTS

Of the 112 266 patients referred for cardiac surgery, 269 (0.2%) died while awaiting surgery (118/72 366 [0.2%] isolated CABG, 81/24 461 [0.3%] valvular procedures, 63/12 046 [0.5%] combined CABG-valvular procedures and 7/3393 [0.2%] thoracic aorta procedures). Age, sex, surgery type, left main stenosis, Canadian Cardiovascular Society classification, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, dialysis, psychosis and operative priority were predictors of waitlist mortality. The model discriminated (C-statistic 0.76 [optimism-corrected 0.73]). It calibrated well in the overall cohort (Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.2) and across surgery types.

INTERPRETATION

The CardiOttawa Waitlist Mortality Score is a simple clinical risk model that predicts the likelihood of death while awaiting cardiac surgery. It has the potential to provide data-driven decision support for managing access to cardiac care and preserve system capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic, the recovery period and beyond.

The Value of Admission Serological Indicators for Predicting 28-Day Mortality in Intensive Care Patients With Acute Heart Failure: Construction and Validation of a Nomogram

Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) is a severe clinical syndrome characterized as rapid onset or worsening of symptoms of chronic heart failure (CHF). Risk stratification for patients with AHF in the intensive care unit (ICU) may help clinicians to predict the 28-day mortality risk in this subpopulation and further raise the quality of care.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed and analyzed the demographic characteristics and serological indicators of patients with AHF in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) (version 1.4) between June 2001 and October 2012 and our medical center between January 2019 and April 2021. The chi-squared test and the Fisher's exact test were used for comparison of qualitative variables among the AHF death group and non-death group. The clinical variables were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. A clinical nomogram for predicting the 28-day mortality was constructed based on the multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and further validated by the internal and external cohorts.

Results: Age > 65 years [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.47], the high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (≥3 and ≤8, HR = 2.21; ≥9 and ≤20, HR = 3.29), lactic acid (Lac) (>2 mmol/l, HR = 1.40), bicarbonate (HCO3-) (>28 mmol/l, HR = 1.59), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (>21 mg/dl, HR = 1.75), albumin (<3.5 g/dl, HR = 2.02), troponin T (TnT) (>0.04 ng/ml, HR = 4.02), and creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB) (>5 ng/ml, HR = 1.64) were the independent risk factors for predicting 28-day mortality of intensive care patients with AHF (p < 0.05). The novel nomogram was developed and validated with a promising C-index of 0.814 (95% CI: 0.754–0.882), 0.820 (95% CI: 0.721–0.897), and 0.828 (95% CI: 0.743–0.917), respectively.

Conclusion: This study provides a new insight in early predicting the risk of 28-day mortality in intensive care patients with AHF. The age, the SOFA score, and serum TnT level are the leading three predictors in evaluating the short-term outcome of intensive care patients with AHF. Based on the nomogram, clinicians could better stratify patients with AHF at high risk and make adequate treatment plans.

Sex-specific temporal trends in ambulatory heart failure incidence, mortality and hospitalisation in Ontario, Canada from 1994 to 2013: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the temporal trends in mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalisation in ambulatory patients following a new diagnosis of HF.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study SETTING: Outpatient PARTICIPANTS: Ontario residents who were diagnosed with HF in an outpatient setting between 1994 and 2013.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 1 year of diagnosis and the secondary outcome was HF hospitalisation within 1 year. Risks of mortality and hospitalisation were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the relative hazard of death was assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

A total of 352 329 patients were studied (50% female). During the study period, there was a greater decline in age standardised 1-year mortality rates (AMR) in men (33%) than in women (19%). Specifically, female AMR at 1 year was 10.4% (95% CI 9.1% to 12.0%) in 1994 and 8.5% (95% CI 7.5% to 9.5%) in 2013, and male AMR at 1 year was 12.3% (95% CI 11.1% to 13.7%) in 1994 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.5% to 9.1%) in 2013. Conversely, age standardised HF hospitalisation rates declined in men (11.4% (95% CI 10.1% to 12.9%) in 1994 and 9.1% (95% CI 8.2% to 10.1%) in 2013) but remained unchanged in women (9.7% (95% CI 8.3% to 11.3%) in 1994 and 9.8% (95% CI 8.6% to 11.0%) in 2013).

CONCLUSION

Among patients with HF over a 20-year period, there was a greater improvement in the prognosis of men compared with women. Further research should focus on the determinants of this disparity and ways to reduce this gap in outcomes.

Racial disparities and cardiovascular disease: One size fits all approach?

BACKGROUND

Despite recent advancements in prevention, treatment, and management options, cardiovascular diseases contribute to one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. Several studies highlight the compelling evidence for the existence of healthcare inequities and disparities in the treatment and management control of cardiovascular diseases.

AIMS

To explore the role of racial disparities in the treatment of various cardiovascular diseases, highlighting the role of socioeconomic and cultural factors, and ultimately postulate solutions to eliminate the disparities.

METHODS

A comprehensive review of the literature was conducted using appropriate keywords on search engines of SCOPUS, Wiley, PubMed, and SAGE Journals.

CONCLUSION

By continued research to eliminate healthcare inequalities, there exists a potential to improve health-related outcomes in minority populations.