Visual Impairment, Partially Dependent ADL and Extremely Old Age Could be Predictors for Severe Fall Injuries in Acute Care Settings

The Administration of Lemborexant at Admission is Not Associated with Inpatient Falls: A Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study

Purpose

There has been no large-scale investigation into the association between the use of lemborexant, suvorexant, and ramelteon and falls in a large population. This study, serving as a pilot investigation, was aimed at examining the relationship between inpatient falls and various prescribed hypnotic medications at admission.

Patients and Methods

This study was a sub-analysis of a multicenter retrospective observational study conducted over a period of 3 years. The target population comprised patients aged 20 years or above admitted to eight hospitals, including chronic care, acute care, and tertiary hospitals. We extracted data on the types of hypnotic medications prescribed at admission, including lemborexant, suvorexant, ramelteon, benzodiazepines, Z-drugs, and other hypnotics; the occurrence of inpatient falls during the hospital stay; and patients' background information. To determine the outcome of inpatient falls, items with low collinearity were selected and included as covariates in a forced-entry binary logistic regression analysis.

Results

Overall, 150,278 patients were included in the analysis, among whom 3,458 experienced falls. The median age of the entire cohort was 70 years, with men constituting 53.1%. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that the prescription of lemborexant, suvorexant, and ramelteon at admission was not significantly associated with inpatient falls.

Conclusion

The administration of lemborexant, suvorexant, and ramelteon at admission may not be associated with inpatient falls.

Validation and Improvement of the Saga Fall Risk Model: A Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study

Purpose

We conducted a pilot study in an acute care hospital and developed the Saga Fall Risk Model 2 (SFRM2), a fall prediction model comprising eight items: Bedriddenness rank, age, sex, emergency admission, admission to the neurosurgery department, history of falls, independence of eating, and use of hypnotics. The external validation results from the two hospitals showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of SFRM2 may be lower in other facilities. This study aimed to validate the accuracy of SFRM2 using data from eight hospitals, including chronic care hospitals, and adjust the coefficients to improve the accuracy of SFRM2 and validate it.

Patients and Methods

This study included all patients aged ≥20 years admitted to eight hospitals, including chronic care, acute care, and tertiary hospitals, from April 1, 2018, to March 31, 2021. In-hospital falls were used as the outcome, and the AUC and shrinkage coefficient of SFRM2 were calculated. Additionally, SFRM2.1, which was modified from the coefficients of SFRM2 using logistic regression with the eight items comprising SFRM2, was developed using two-thirds of the data randomly selected from the entire population, and its accuracy was validated using the remaining one-third portion of the data.

Results

Of the 124,521 inpatients analyzed, 2,986 (2.4%) experienced falls during hospitalization. The median age of all inpatients was 71 years, and 53.2% were men. The AUC of SFRM2 was 0.687 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.678-0.697), and the shrinkage coefficient was 0.996. SFRM2.1 was created using 81,790 patients, and its accuracy was validated using the remaining 42,731 patients. The AUC of SFRM2.1 was 0.745 (95% CI: 0.731-0.758).

Conclusion

SFRM2 showed good accuracy in predicting falls even on validating in diverse populations with significantly different backgrounds. Furthermore, the accuracy can be improved by adjusting the coefficients while keeping the model's parameters fixed.

Criterion-related validity of Bedriddenness Rank with other established objective scales of ADLs, and Cognitive Function Score with those of cognitive impairment, both are easy-to-use official Japanese scales: A prospective observational study

Aim

Bedriddenness Rank (BR) and Cognitive Function Score (CFS), issued by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan, are easy-to-use and widely used in the medical and long-term care insurance systems in Japan. This study aims to clarify the criterion-related validity of the CFS with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and ABC Dementia Scale (ABC-DS), and to re-evaluate the criterion-related validity of BR with the Barthel Index (BI) or Katz Index (KI) in more appropriate settings and a larger population compared with the previous study.

Methods

A single-center prospective observational study was conducted in an acute care hospital in a suburban city in Japan. All inpatients aged 20 years or older admitted from October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019. The relationship between BR and the BI and KI, and the relationship between CFS and the MMSE and ABC-DS were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation coefficients.

Results

We enrolled 3,003 patients. Of these, 1,664 (56%) patients exhibited normal BR. The median (interquartile range) values of the BI and KI were 100 (65–100) and 6 (2–6), respectively. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between BR and the BI and KI were −0.891 (p < 0.001) and −0.877 (p < 0.001), respectively.

Of the patients, 1,967 (65.5%) showed normal CFS. The median (interquartile range) MMSE of 951 patients with abnormal CFS and ABC-DS of all patients were 15 (2–21) and 117 (102–117), respectively. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between CFS and MMSE and ABC-DS were −0.546 (p < 0.001) and −0.862 (p < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusions

BR and CFS showed significant criterion-related validity with well-established but complicated objective scales for assessing activities of daily living and cognitive functions, respectively. These two scales, which are easy to assess, are reliable and useful in busy clinical practice or large-scale screening settings.

History of Falls and Bedriddenness Ranks are Useful Predictive Factors for in-Hospital Falls: A Single-Center Retrospective Observational Study Using the Saga Fall Risk Model

INTRODUCTION

In our former study, we had validated the previously developed predictive model for in-hospital falls (Saga fall risk model) using eight simple factors (age, sex, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, history of falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks [BRs]), proving its high reliability. We found that only admission to the neurosurgery department, history of falls, and BRs had significant relationships with falls. In the present study, we aimed to clarify whether each of these three items had a significant relationship with falls in a different group of patients.

METHODS

This was a single-center based, retrospective study in an acute care hospital in a rural city of Japan. We enrolled all inpatients aged 20 years or older admitted from April 2015 to March 2018. We randomly selected patients to fulfill the required sample size. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis using forced entry on the association between falls and each of the eight items in the Saga fall risk model 2.

RESULTS

A total of 2932 patients were randomly selected, of whom 95 (3.2%) fell. The median age was 79 years, and 49.9% were men. Multivariable analysis showed that female sex (odds ratio [OR] 0.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.93, p = 0.022), having a history of falls (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.16-2.99, p = 0.010), requiring help with eating (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.12-3.35, p = 0.019), BR of A (OR 6.6, 95% CI 2.82-15.30, p < 0.001), BR of B (OR 7.5, 95% CI 2.95-19.06, p < 0.001), and BR of C (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.53-11.04, p = 0.005) were significantly associated with falls.

CONCLUSION

History of falls and BRs were independently associated with in-hospital falls.

External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study

Background

Several reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenness ranks, from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This model has not yet been prospectively validated. This study aims to prospectively validate our new predictive model for falls among inpatients admitted to two different hospitals.

Methods

A double-centered prospective cohort study was performed from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019 in an acute care hospital and a chronic care hospital. We analyzed data from all adult inpatients, for whom all data required by the predictive model were evaluated and recorded. The eight items required by the predictive model were age, gender, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, previous falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks. The main outcome is in-hospital falls among adult inpatients, and the model was assessed by area under the curve.

Results

A total of 3,551 adult participants were available, who experienced 125 falls (3.5%). The median age (interquartile range) was 78 (66–87) years, 1,701 (47.9%) were men, and the incidence of falls was 2.25 per 1,000 patient-days and 2.06 per 1,000 occupied bed days. The area under the curve of the model was 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.761–0.825). The cutoff value was set as − 2.18, making the specificity 90% with the positive predictive value and negative predictive value at 11.4% and 97%.

Conclusions

This double-centered prospective cohort external validation study showed that the new predictive model had excellent validity for falls among inpatients. This reliable and easy-to-use model is therefore recommended for prediction of falls among inpatients, to improve preventive interventions.

Trial registration

UMIN000040103 (2020/04/08)

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5.

High inter-rater reliability of Japanese bedriddenness ranks and cognitive function scores: a hospital-based prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The statistical validities of the official Japanese classifications of activities of daily living (ADLs), including bedriddenness ranks (BR) and cognitive function scores (CFS), have yet to be assessed. To this aim, we evaluated the ability of BR and CFS to assess ADLs using inter-rater reliability and criterion-related validity.

METHODS

New inpatients aged ≥75 years were enrolled in this hospital-based prospective observational study. BR and CFS were assessed once by an attending nurse, and then by a social worker/medical clerk. We evaluated inter-rater reliability between different professions by calculating the concordance rate, kappa coefficient, Cronbach's α, and intraclass correlation coefficient. We also estimated the relationship of the Barthel Index and Katz Index with the BR and CFS using Spearman's correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

For the 271 patients enrolled, BR at the first assessment revealed 66 normal, 10 of J1, 15 of J2, 18 of A1, 31 of A2, 37 of B1, 35 of B2, 22 of C1, and 32 of C2. The concordance rate between the two BR assessments was 68.6%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.61, Cronbach's α of 0.91, and an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.83, thus showing good inter-rater reliability. BR was negatively correlated with the Barthel Index (r = - 0.848, p < 0.001) and Katz Index (r = - 0.820, p < 0.001), showing justifiable criterion-related validity. Meanwhile, CFS at the first assessment revealed 92 normal, 47 of 1, 19 of 2a, 30 of 2b, 60 of 3a, 8 of 3b, 8 of 4, and 0 of M. The concordance rate between the two CFS assessments was 70.1%, with a kappa coefficient of 0.62, Cronbach's α of 0.87, and an intraclass correlation coefficient 0.78, thus also showing good inter-rater reliability. CFS was negatively correlated with the Barthel Index (r = - 0.667, p < 0.001) and Katz Index (r = - 0.661, p < 0.001), showing justifiable criterion-related validity.

CONCLUSIONS

BR and CFS could be reliable and easy-to-use grading scales of ADLs in acute clinical practice or large-scale screening, with high inter-rater reliabilities among different professions and significant correlations with well-established, though complicated to use, instruments to assess ADLs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

UMIN000041051 (2020/7/10).

Risk factors associated with history of falls in adults with intellectual disability

BACKGROUND

Adults with intellectual disability (ID) have a higher risk for falls than the general population.

AIM

The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for falls in adults with ID using objective measurements.

METHODS

Eighty adults with ID (men 36 women 44 age 43 ± 13 years) provided data on falls history, health problems or limitations in daily life, physical activity (PA), and physical performance. We conducted independent-samples t-tests, and Chi-square (χ²) tests to examine the difference between fallers and non-fallers. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify the independent effects of risk factors for falls in adults with ID.

RESULTS

Fallers had significantly lower SPPB, mobility, and moderate PA than non-fallers (p <  .05). Fallers were more likely to be older, need support with activities of daily living (ADLs), and have arthritis or rheumatism, walking problem, and limitations to participating in PA than non-fallers (p <  .05). Among these variables, only needing support with ADLs remained a significant independent predictor of falls in a multivariate model.

CONCLUSION

Support need for ADLs can predict falls in individuals with ID. Caregivers may need to closely monitor adults with ID who need support for ADLs.

Preoperative Factors Associated with Extrathyroidal Extension in Papillary Thyroid Cancer

OBJECTIVE

Extrathyroidal extension may not be accurately recognized during thyroidectomy and can increase the risk of positive margins and even recurrence. This study aimed to investigate the preoperative factors associated with extrathyroidal extension.

METHODS

We analyzed 887 patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) who underwent surgery in the period of 2005-2017. Binary logistic regression analyses and generalized additive models were used to identify associations.

RESULTS

Minimal extrathyroidal extension was present in 233 (26%) patients and advanced extrathyroidal extension was found in 60 (7%) patients. Age, BMI, and tumor size were independent predictors of all or advanced extrathyroidal extension. Among the 493 patients whose BRAF mutation status was available, age (OR = 1.025), BMI (OR = 1.091), tumor size (OR = 1.544), and BRAF V600E mutation (OR = 2.311) were independently associated with extrathyroidal extension.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, a greater BMI, a larger tumor size, and presence of the BRAF mutation were predictive of extrathyroidal extension. These factors should be taken into consideration in decision-making before surgery is performed.

New predictive models for falls among inpatients using public ADL scale in Japan: A retrospective observational study of 7,858 patients in acute care setting

AIM

Most predictive models for falls developed previously were awkward to use because of their complexity. We developed and validated a new easier-to-use predictive model for falls of adult inpatients using easily accessible information including the public ADL scale in Japan.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from Japanese adult inpatients in an acute care hospital from 2012 to 2015. Two-thirds of cases were randomly extracted to the test set and one-third to the validation set. Data including age, sex, activity of daily living (ADL), public scales in Japan of ADL "bedriddenness rank," and cognitive function in daily living, hypnotic medications, previous falls, and emergency admission were derived from hospital records. Falls during hospitalization were identified from incident reports. Two predictive models were created by multivariate analysis, each of which was assessed by area under the curve (AUC) from the validation set.

RESULTS

A total of 7,858 adult participants were available. The AUC of model 1, using 13 factors-age, sex (male), emergency admission, use of ambulance, referral letter, admission to Neurosurgery, admission to Internal Medicine, use of hypnotic medication, permanent damage by stroke, history of falls, visual impairment, independence of eating, and bedriddenness rank-with low mutual collinearity and showing significant relationship by multivariate logistic regression analysis, was 0.789 in the validation set. The AUC of parsimonious model 2, using age and seven factors-sex (male), emergency admission, admission to Neurosurgery, use of hypnotic medication, history of falls, independence of eating, and bedriddenness rank-showing statistical significance by multivariate analysis in model 1, was 0.787 in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

We proposed new predictive models for inpatients' fall using the public ADL scales in Japan, which had a higher degree of usability because of their use of simpler and fewer (8 or 13) predictors, especially parsimonious model 2.