Systemic inflammation score as a predictor of death within one year after esophagectomy

BACKGROUND

After radical resection for esophageal cancer, death within 1 year of surgery can occur due both to recurrence and to other diseases, even after postoperative complications have been overcome. This study identified risk factors for early death within 1 year of esophagectomy for reasons other than death in hospital in patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer or esophagogastric junction cancer.

METHODS

We reviewed 366 patients who underwent esophagectomy without adjuvant treatment between January 2009 and July 2022 for thoracic esophageal cancer or esophagogastric junction cancer. Patients who died within 1 year excluding in-hospital death were compared with those who did not. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of death within 1 year after surgery.

RESULTS

Death within 1 year occurred in 32 of 366 patients, 24 from primary disease and 8 from other diseases. Deaths within 1 year were significantly older than the other cases, had significantly lower % vital capacity (%VC), and occurred significantly more often in cases in advanced stages of disease. In a multivariable analysis, a systemic inflammation score (SIS) based on serum albumin level and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio was identified as an independent predictor of death within 1 year. As SIS increased, %VC decreased significantly, and CRP level and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio increased significantly. There was no relationship between SIS and pN. Death within 1 year increased as SIS increased (p = 0.001 for trend).

CONCLUSION

SIS assessment undertaken before beginning esophageal cancer treatment is a useful predictor of death within 1 year of surgery.

The Administration of Lemborexant at Admission is Not Associated with Inpatient Falls: A Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study

Purpose

There has been no large-scale investigation into the association between the use of lemborexant, suvorexant, and ramelteon and falls in a large population. This study, serving as a pilot investigation, was aimed at examining the relationship between inpatient falls and various prescribed hypnotic medications at admission.

Patients and Methods

This study was a sub-analysis of a multicenter retrospective observational study conducted over a period of 3 years. The target population comprised patients aged 20 years or above admitted to eight hospitals, including chronic care, acute care, and tertiary hospitals. We extracted data on the types of hypnotic medications prescribed at admission, including lemborexant, suvorexant, ramelteon, benzodiazepines, Z-drugs, and other hypnotics; the occurrence of inpatient falls during the hospital stay; and patients' background information. To determine the outcome of inpatient falls, items with low collinearity were selected and included as covariates in a forced-entry binary logistic regression analysis.

Results

Overall, 150,278 patients were included in the analysis, among whom 3,458 experienced falls. The median age of the entire cohort was 70 years, with men constituting 53.1%. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that the prescription of lemborexant, suvorexant, and ramelteon at admission was not significantly associated with inpatient falls.

Conclusion

The administration of lemborexant, suvorexant, and ramelteon at admission may not be associated with inpatient falls.

Impact of wound management strategies after revascularization for chronic limb-threatening ischemia

OBJECTIVE

There is no established consensus or guidelines for wound management after revascularization for patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) without severe infection. This study is designed to evaluate the clinical effect of the wound management strategy on toe wounds after revascularization for CLTI.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was performed at eight institutions affiliated with Keio University School of Medicine in Japan and included 261 patients who underwent revascularization for CLTI between April 2019 and July 2021. We identified 132 patients with toe wounds from the database who had restored in-line blood flow to the foot. Patients were divided into two groups by the timing of toe resection after revascularization, which dictated the wound management policy. Group A (62 patients) underwent early toe amputation for suspected osteomyelitis, whereas group B (70 patients) underwent watchful waiting. The primary outcome was wound healing after revascularization; the secondary outcome was major amputation. We compared outcomes between groups A and B after propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Using propensity score matching, each patient in group A (33 patients) was matched with a patient in group B (33 patients). Wound healing in matched group A was significantly better than that in matched group B (respectively: 1-year wound healing rate: 90.0% vs 68.2%, P < .001; median wound healing time: 65 days vs 258 days, P < .01). Although five major amputations were necessary in matched group B, none were required in matched group A (P = .05). The high rate of major amputations in group B was attributed to the sudden exacerbation of infection. Limb salvage rate in matched group A exceeded matched group B (100.0% vs 90.5%: 1-year limb salvage rate, P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

Early toe amputation for highly suspected osteomyelitis in patients with CLTI with toe wounds may expedite wound healing compared with watchful waiting, potentially avoiding unnecessary major amputation. Considering the wound management strategy is crucial when evaluating wound healing outcomes in patients with CLTI with revascularization.

Enhancing exercise tolerance in interstitial lung disease with high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy: A randomized crossover trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is characterized by dyspnoea on exertion and exercise-induced hypoxaemia. High-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) therapy reduces the respiratory workload through higher gas flow and oxygen supplementation, which may affect exercise tolerance. This study aimed to examine the effects of oxygen and gas flow rates through HFNC therapy on exercise tolerance in ILD patients.

METHODS

We conducted three-treatment crossover study. All ILD patients performed the exercises on room air (ROOM AIR setting: flow, 0 L/min; fraction of inspired oxygen [FiO2 ], 0.21), HFNC (FLOW setting: flow 40 L/min, FiO2 0.21), and HFNC with oxygen supplementation (FLOW + OXYGEN setting: flow 40 L/min, FiO2 0.6). The primary endpoint was the endurance time, measured using constant-load cycle ergometry exercise testing at a peak work rate of 80%.

RESULTS

Twenty-five participants (10 men, 71.2 ± 6.7 years) were enrolled. The increase in exercise duration between the ROOM AIR and FLOW was 46.3 s (95% CI, -6.1 to 98.7; p = 0.083), and the FLOW and FLOW + OXYGEN was 91.5 s (39.1-143.9; p < 0.001). The percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO2 ) at rest was significantly higher with the FLOW + OXYGEN setting than with the ROOM AIR and FLOW settings, and the difference persisted during exercise. At equivalent time points during exercise, the SpO2 with the FLOW setting was significantly higher than that with the ROOM AIR setting.

CONCLUSION

Oxygen supplementation in HFNC therapy improved exercise tolerance and SpO2 . We found that gas flow alone did not improve exercise tolerance, but improved SpO2 during exercise.

Impact of preexisting interstitial lung disease on mortality in COVID-19 patients from the early pandemic to the delta variant epidemic: a nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 patients with preexisting interstitial lung disease (ILD) were reported to have a high mortality rate; however, this was based on data from the early stages of the pandemic. It is uncertain how their mortality rates have changed with the emergence of new variants of concern as well as the development of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments. It is also unclear whether having ILD still poses a risk factor for mortality. As COVID-19 continues to be a major concern, further research on COVID-19 patients with preexisting ILD is necessary.

METHODS

We extracted data on COVID-19 patients between January 2020-August 2021 from a Japanese nationwide insurance claims database and divided them into those with and without preexisting ILD. We investigated all-cause mortality of COVID-19 patients with preexisting ILD in wild-type-, alpha-, and delta-predominant waves, to determine whether preexisting ILD was associated with increased mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 937,758 adult COVID-19 patients, 7,333 (0.8%) had preexisting ILD. The proportion of all COVID-19 patients who had preexisting ILD in the wild-type-, alpha-, and delta-predominant waves was 1.2%, 0.8%, and 0.3%, respectively, and their 60-day mortality was 16.0%, 14.6%, and 7.5%, respectively. The 60-day mortality significantly decreased from the alpha-predominant to delta-predominant waves (difference - 7.1%, 95% confidence intervals (CI) - 9.3% to - 4.9%). In multivariable analysis, preexisting ILD was independently associated with increased mortality in all waves with the wild-type-predominant, odds ratio (OR) 2.10, 95% CI 1.91-2.30, the alpha-predominant wave, OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.84-2.50, and the delta-predominant wave, OR 2.10, 95%CI 1.66-2.66.

CONCLUSIONS

All-cause mortality rates for COVID-19 patients with preexisting ILD decreased from the wild-type- to the more recent delta-predominant waves. However, these patients were consistently at higher mortality risk than those without preexisting ILD. We emphasize that careful attention should be given to patients with preexisting ILD despite the change in the COVID-19 environment.

Denosumab-induced hypocalcemia in patients with solid tumors and renal dysfunction: a multicenter, retrospective, observational study

BACKGROUND

Bone metastases are frequently observed in advanced cancer, and bone modifying agents are used to prevent or treat skeletal-related events. Zoledronic acid is contraindicated in patients with severe renal impairment (Ccr < 30 mL/min), but it is not completely known whether denosumab can be used in them. We aimed to determine the association between renal function and hypocalcemia development during denosumab treatment.

METHODS

We included patients with solid cancer and bone metastases who started denosumab treatment between April 2017 and March 2019. They were classified into four groups based on creatinine clearance (Ccr; mL/min): normal (Ccr ≥ 80), mild (50 ≤ Ccr ˂80), moderate (30 ≤ Ccr ˂50), and severe (Ccr ˂30). Hypocalcemia was evaluated using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (v5.0) based on the albumin-adjusted serum calcium levels; its incidence (stratified by renal function) and risk factors were investigated using a Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of 524 patients (age: 69 ± 11 years; 303 men), 153 had a normal renal function and 222, 117, and 32 had mild, moderate, and severe renal dysfunction. The albumin-adjusted serum calcium level was higher than the measured (total) calcium level in most patients. The incidence of grade ≥ 1 hypocalcemia was 32.0% in the normal group and 37.4%, 29.9%, and 62.5% in the mild, moderate, and severe renal dysfunction groups, respectively. It was, therefore, higher in the severe renal dysfunction groups than in the normal group (P = 0.002). The incidence of grade ≥ 3 hypocalcemia did not differ significantly among the groups. Pre-treatment low serum calcium levels and severe renal dysfunction were risk factors for hypocalcemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluating denosumab-induced hypocalcemia required albumin adjustment, and its incidence was high among patients with severe renal dysfunction. Reduced serum calcium levels and severely impaired renal function were associated with an elevated hypocalcemia risk.

Validation and Improvement of the Saga Fall Risk Model: A Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study

Purpose

We conducted a pilot study in an acute care hospital and developed the Saga Fall Risk Model 2 (SFRM2), a fall prediction model comprising eight items: Bedriddenness rank, age, sex, emergency admission, admission to the neurosurgery department, history of falls, independence of eating, and use of hypnotics. The external validation results from the two hospitals showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of SFRM2 may be lower in other facilities. This study aimed to validate the accuracy of SFRM2 using data from eight hospitals, including chronic care hospitals, and adjust the coefficients to improve the accuracy of SFRM2 and validate it.

Patients and Methods

This study included all patients aged ≥20 years admitted to eight hospitals, including chronic care, acute care, and tertiary hospitals, from April 1, 2018, to March 31, 2021. In-hospital falls were used as the outcome, and the AUC and shrinkage coefficient of SFRM2 were calculated. Additionally, SFRM2.1, which was modified from the coefficients of SFRM2 using logistic regression with the eight items comprising SFRM2, was developed using two-thirds of the data randomly selected from the entire population, and its accuracy was validated using the remaining one-third portion of the data.

Results

Of the 124,521 inpatients analyzed, 2,986 (2.4%) experienced falls during hospitalization. The median age of all inpatients was 71 years, and 53.2% were men. The AUC of SFRM2 was 0.687 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.678-0.697), and the shrinkage coefficient was 0.996. SFRM2.1 was created using 81,790 patients, and its accuracy was validated using the remaining 42,731 patients. The AUC of SFRM2.1 was 0.745 (95% CI: 0.731-0.758).

Conclusion

SFRM2 showed good accuracy in predicting falls even on validating in diverse populations with significantly different backgrounds. Furthermore, the accuracy can be improved by adjusting the coefficients while keeping the model's parameters fixed.

The effect of the conduit size on middle-term outcomes in patients with extracardiac total cavopulmonary connection

OBJECTIVES

The 18- and 16-mm conduits in extracardiac total cavopulmonary connection (eTCPC) were reported to be optimal based on energy loss and flow stagnation at the relatively early phase. However, because the artificial conduit lacks growth potential, we have recently encountered some cases in which the conduit needs to be changed several years after eTCPC. These cases prompted us to reconsider the surgical strategy for eTCPC.

METHODS

We reviewed our 20-year single-centre experience with eTCPC patients (n = 256) to compare the 18-mm conduit (n = 195) and 16-mm conduit (n = 61) in terms of mortality and morbidity.

RESULTS

The 16-mm conduit was used significantly more frequently in patients whose main chamber was right ventricle (P < 0.001). There was also a significant difference in preoperative inferior vena cava pressure (P = 0.008). There was a significant difference in the actuarial rate of freedom from late-occurring complications, including mortality, between the 2 groups (P = 0.003). There was a significant difference in the actuarial rate of reoperation-free survival (P = 0.042); however, there was no significant difference in resurgical intervention for the conduit (P = 0.333). In multivariate analysis, preoperative inferior vena cava pressure was an independent predictor for late-occurring complications (hazard ratio 1.19; P = 0.026). Conduit size (18 or 16 mm) itself was not an independent predictive factor for late-occurring complications (P = 0.690).

CONCLUSIONS

The mid-term clinical outcomes in patients who underwent eTCPC were excellent with low mortality. Preoperative inferior vena cava pressure was the only predictive risk factor for postoperative morbidity, and the 16 mm conduit was not predictive thereof.

Prospective study on planned biliary stent placement to treat small common bile duct stones

Aims

Small common bile duct stones are known to occasionally clear spontaneously. This study aimed to prospectively assess the role of biliary stent placement in promoting the spontaneous clearance of small common bile duct stones.

Methods and Results

We analyzed patients presenting with common bile duct stones of ≤5 mm diameter between June 2020 and May 2022. The exclusion criteria included asymptomatic patients, biliary pancreatitis, altered gastrointestinal anatomy, bile duct strictures (malignant or benign), and a history of EST. The biliary stents were inserted without stone removal. Stone clearance was assessed using endoscopic ultrasonography or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography after 3 months. Our primary endpoint was the clearance rate of common bile duct stones over 6 months, targeting a lower limit for the 95% confidence interval (CI) exceeding 25%. Of the 32 enrolled patients, 18 (56.3%; 95% CI: 37.7-73.6%) exhibited stone clearance. Early complications occurred in 11 patients (34.4%), totaling 12 incidents: acute cholecystitis in four, acute pancreatitis in three, biliary pain in three, and cholangitis in two patients. No severe complications occurred. Six (18.8%) patients experienced asymptomatic stent migration. Following stone clearance, four (12.5%) patients experienced stone recurrence, with an average duration of 256 ± 164 days.

Conclusion

Biliary stenting appeared to effectively promote the clearance of small common bile duct stones in approximately half of the patients. However, the potential complications and risks of stone recurrence warrant close monitoring.This trial was registered in the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials (jRCT1042200020).

Leukotriene antagonists reduce epileptic seizures-related hospitalization in older adult populations with allergic rhinitis or asthma: A population-based cohort study using the Shizuoka Kokuho database: The Shizuoka study

OBJECTIVE

Managing the risk of epileptic seizures in older adults is increasingly important as the population ages. Leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRAs) are commonly used to treat asthma or allergic rhinitis. Preclinical studies suggest that LTRAs have antiepileptic effects; however, few population-based etiological studies on this topic have been available. Our study explored whether LTRAs reduce hospitalization risk associated with epileptic seizures in older individuals with asthma or allergic rhinitis.

METHODS

We conducted a new-user design analysis using the Shizuoka Kokuho database. We included all individuals aged 60-89 years who had at least one episode of allergic rhinitis or asthma during the study period. We compared individuals who newly started LTRAs with those who did not take LTRAs. Propensity score matching was used to balance the baseline characteristics of the participants. We compared the hazard ratios for seizure-related hospitalization between new LTRA users and non-users and performed subgroup analyses.

RESULTS

Our matched cohorts consisted of 64 724 new users and non-users of LTRAs who were aged 60-89 years and had asthma or allergic rhinitis. During the observation period, 377 (0.58%) and 595 (0.92%) incidents were observed in the LTRA new-user and non-user groups, respectively. The hazard ratio for seizure-related hospitalization was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62-0.92) in the LTRA new-user group compared with the non-user group. Subgroup analysis revealed that the hazard ratio was weak in diabetic patients (1.31; 95% CI: 0.72-2.38).

SIGNIFICANCE

This study indicated that LTRAs reduced seizure-related hospitalization in older adult patients with allergic rhinitis or asthma. We could not evaluate the severity and related diseases of epileptic seizures during LTRAs. Further studies, including observational studies, detailed multicenter prospective studies, and clinical trials, are needed to validate these findings.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

This study examined if leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRAs), commonly used for asthma or allergies, could lower seizure risk in older adults. Analyzing health records of 60-89 year-olds with asthma or allergies, we found a reduced rate of seizure-related hospitalizations in those starting LTRAs, though this was not as evident in diabetic patients. Our results suggest potential benefits of LTRAs in preventing seizures in older adults with respiratory issues, but further research is needed to confirm these findings.

Comorbidities associated with 2-year mortality in adults with cerebral palsy in Japan

AIM

To clarify whether the Whitney Comorbidity Index (WCI) is useful in Asian adults with cerebral palsy (CP) and whether aspiration pneumonia and pressure ulcers improved the prognostic significance of the WCI.

METHOD

This cohort study evaluated individuals aged at least 18 years with CP in Japan. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to analyse 2-year mortality rates. The predictive performance of the Charlson Comorbidity Index, Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, and WCI were compared as comorbidity assessment criteria. Aspiration pneumonia and pressure ulcers were added to the Cox models, and their impact on hazard ratios was determined.

RESULTS

Of the 2232 adults with CP, 72 died during the 2 years. The model with a previously reported weighted WCI with aspiration pneumonia and pressure ulcers produced the best fit. Additionally, the hazard risk of 2-year mortality for an unweighted WCI score of at least 4 was 2.56; when CP-specific comorbidities were added, it increased to 8.94.

INTERPRETATION

This study showed that the WCI can be used in Asian adults with CP. Furthermore, assessing patient age, aspiration pneumonia, and pressure ulcers in addition to the WCI increased the predictive value for mortality. Our findings indicate that the WCI can promote valid comparisons between international populations.

WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS

The Whitney Comorbidity Index (WCI) is useful among adults with cerebral palsy, irrespective of ethnic differences. Assessment of aspiration pneumonia and pressure ulcers increased the WCI predictive value. The WCI helps identify adults with cerebral palsy at risk of adverse outcomes.

[Evaluation of Changes in Membranous Septum Length during the Cardiac Cycle and by Measurement Methods Using the Preoperative CT for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Single-center Cross-sectional Study]

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the changes in membranous septum (MS) length during the cardiac cycle and by measurement methods using the preoperative computed tomography (CT) images for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR).

METHOD

Among 34 consecutive patients who underwent preoperative contrast-enhanced CT for TAVR, we measured MS lengths by three measurement methods (coronal, stretched, and reformatted coronal view method) at 10% intervals in the cardiac cycle.

RESULT

MS lengths differed between the three measurement methods in all cardiac phases. Moderate correlations were observed between the MS lengths measured by the coronal view method and the other two methods. In contrast, strong correlations were observed between the MS lengths measured by the stretched view method and the reformatted coronal view method. The frequencies of the minimum and maximum MS lengths during the cardiac cycle tended to be highest at R-R 90% and R-R 30%, respectively. The median MS lengths at R-R 90% were smaller than those at R-R 30% in all measurement methods.

CONCLUSION

The MS length in patients undergoing contrast-enhanced CT for TAVR varies notably depending on the cardiac cycle and measurement methods. When evaluating MS length, it is crucial to consider the measurement method and to perform measurements during diastole in order to evaluate the minimum value during the cardiac cycle.

Risk factors for glioblastoma in adults in Japan: an exploratory cohort study based on the Shizuoka Kokuho Database, the Shizuoka study

PURPOSE

To elucidate the risk factors associated with the onset of glioblastoma (GBM) utilizing a comprehensive administrative claims database from a major governmental district in Japan.

METHODS

Using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database (SKDB) for the period from April 2012 to September 2021, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 1,465,353 participants, identifying GBM cases using specific Japanese disease codes in conjunction with associated treatments. Risk factors were assessed using both univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Within the cohort, 182 participants (0.012%) received a GBM diagnosis during the study period, resulting in an incidence rate of 2.1 per 100,000 person-years. The multivariable analysis revealed that older age, male sex, and peripheral vascular disease (PVD) significantly influenced the risk of GBM onset. No clear link was found between allergic conditions and GBM risk, in contrast to some previous research.

CONCLUSION

Employing a robust health insurance database, this study revealed significant associations between GBM and factors such as age, male sex, and PVD within the Japanese population. It provides key insights into GBM epidemiology and underscores the potential of health insurance databases for large-scale oncological research.

[Optimal search conditions for identification of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia from Japanese National Health Insurance data]

This study investigated which conditions could be used to identify patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) from a National Health Insurance claims dataset. During April 2012 and September 2018, 1,789,462 employees were enrolled in the dataset for Shizuoka Prefecture residents. The number of patients with the ICD-10 code for CML was 761. Among them, 246 who had been prescribed a tyrosine kinase inhibitor were considered as having true CML. The positive predictive value was calculated as 32.3% when CML was identified by ICD-10 code alone. Combination of ICD-10 code with prescribed drugs was required to accurately identify patients with CML from the insurance database.

Changes in the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients from the early pandemic to the delta variant epidemic: a nationwide population-based study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically changed because of virus mutations, vaccine dissemination, treatment development and policies, among other factors. These factors have a dynamic and complex effect on the characteristics and outcomes of patients. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand those changes and update the evidence. We used a large-scale real-world data set of 937,758 patients with COVID-19 from a nationwide claims database that included outpatients and inpatients in Japan to investigate the changes in their characteristics, outcomes and risk factors for severity/mortality from the early pandemic to the delta variant-predominant waves. The severity of COVID-19 was defined according to the modified World Health Organization clinical-progression ordinal scale. With changing waves, mean patient age decreased, and proportion of patients with comorbidities decreased. The incidences of "severe COVID-19 or death (i.e. ≥severe COVID-19)" and "death" markedly declined (5.0% and 2.9%, wild-type-predominant; 4.6% and 2.2%, alpha variant-predominant and 1.4% and 0.4%, delta variant-predominant waves, respectively). Across the wave shift, risk factors for ≥ severe COVID-19 and death, including older age, male, malignancy, congestive heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, were largely consistent. The significance of some factors, such as liver disease, varied as per the wave. This study, one of the largest population-based studies on COVID-19, showed that patient characteristics and outcomes changed during the waves. Risk factors for severity/mortality were similar across all waves, but some factors were inconsistent. These data suggest that the clinical status of COVID-19 will change further with the coming epidemic wave.

Identification of subgroups within a Japanese older adult population for whom statin therapy is effective in reducing mortality

Use of statins for primary prevention can reduce all-cause mortality in Asian elderly populations, but their effect and the specific effective subgroups in the elderly Japanese population remain unclear. This study examined the relationship between statin therapy for primary prevention and mortality reduction in older Japanese adults, and investigated the effective subgroups. The cohort study was conducted using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database (SKDB). Data were compared between the statin-treated group and a non-statin-treated (control) group using the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method. In the SKDB cohort aged ≥65 years, new statin use was associated with a decreased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-0.48) after IPTW adjustment. The risk difference for mortality at 5 years in the statin-treated group compared with that in the control group was 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04-0.06), and the number needed to treat was 21.20 (95% CI, 18.10-24.70). In conclusion, statin use for primary prevention in older adults may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality in the population without atherosclerotic disease. Furthermore, statin use for primary prevention is feasible in patients aged 75 to <85 years and in patients with comorbidities such as diabetes, or dementia.

Longitudinal analysis of long-term outcomes of colorectal cancer after laparotomy and laparoscopic surgery: The Shizuoka study

BACKGROUND

Long-term cancer prognosis after initial surgical procedures is an unlikely endpoint for clinical trials. Medical claim databases may aid in addressing this issue regardless of limited information on disease and patient background. However, the long-term prognosis (especially regarding long-term care needs) following surgical procedures remains unclear. This study aimed to assess whether long-term outcomes, such as the exacerbation of long-term care needs and mortality, differ with surgical methods.

METHODS

Using a longitudinal study with linkage between medical claim and long-term care database, patients with primary colorectal cancer who underwent initial colonoscopies were identified through anonymized data in Japan (Shizuoka Kokuho Database, 2012-2018). Odds ratios (ORs) for long-term outcomes (long-term care needs and all-cause mortality during a 6.5-year follow-up period) were analyzed using logistic regression to compare laparoscopy and endoscopic surgery to laparotomy.

RESULTS

Overall, 3,744 primary colorectal cancer cases (822 laparotomies, 705 laparoscopies, and 2,217 endoscopic surgeries) were included. Compared to the laparotomy group, the crude OR for exacerbation of long-term care needs in the laparoscopic surgery group was 0.376 (95% confidence interval, 0.227, 0.624), while the OR for all-cause mortality was 0.22 (0.329, 0.532).

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to analyze long-term prognosis after surgery for patients with colorectal cancer to combine medical and long-term needs data. As the national health insurance claim database rarely includes information on cancer stage and comorbidities, better prognosis on endoscopic surgery may need careful interpretation. Therefore, laparoscopy has superior outcomes in terms of long-term care needs and mortality compared to those of laparotomy.

Administration of Tranexamic Acid After Burr Hole Craniotomy Reduced Postoperative Recurrence of Chronic Subdural Hematoma in a Japanese Regional Population

BACKGROUND

Although tranexamic acid (TXA) has occasionally been used to prevent postoperative recurrence of chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) after burr hole craniotomy (BC), robust evidence of its efficacy has been lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the efficacy and safety of postoperative oral administration of TXA after BC for CSDH among the elderly.

METHODS

This retrospective, propensity score-matched cohort study was carried out with a large Japanese local population-based longitudinal cohort in the Shizuoka Kokuho Database between April 2012 and September 2020. Patients included were age 60 years or older and had undergone BC for CSDH but were not undergoing dialysis. Covariates were collected from records of the preceding 12 months from the month of first BC, and patients were followed up for 6 months after surgery. The primary outcome was repeat surgery, and the secondary outcome was death or the onset of thrombosis. Data on postoperative TXA administration were collected and compared with controls using propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Of the 8544 patients who underwent BC for CSDH, 6647 were included, with 473 placed in the TXA group and 6174 placed in the control group. After 1:1 matching, repeated BC was found to have been performed in 30 of 465 patients (6.5%) in the TXA group and in 78 of 465 patients (16.8%) in the control group (relative risk, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.26-0.56). No significant difference was observed for death or the onset of thrombosis.

CONCLUSION

Oral administration of TXA reduced the occurrence of repeat surgery after BC for CSDH.

Effectiveness of weight-loss prevention with continual nutrition counseling in postoperative outpatients with stage IA and IB gastric cancer

Outpatient nutritional counseling by a registered dietitian is often performed to prevent weight loss, but evidence supporting this practice is insufficient. In this study, we aimed to clarify the effectiveness of four-time outpatient nutritional counseling in weight-loss prevention compared with conventional intervention limited to one-time nutritional counseling. This study was designed as a retrospective cohort study. The target population was postoperative patients with stage IA and IB gastric cancer. Groups that received one-time and four-time nutritional counseling included patients who underwent gastrectomy from May 2014 to April 2017 and May 2017 to December 2019, respectively. The one-time group received counseling at discharge; the four-time group received counseling at discharge, at the first outpatient visit, and at 3 and 6 months postoperatively. There were 58 patients in the one-time group and 27 patients in the four-time group, with a significant difference in length of hospital stay (p = 0.042). Thirty-six patients (62.1%) in the one-time nutritional counseling group and 12 (44.4%) in the four-time group had a weight loss of 5% or more from hospital discharge to 6 months postoperatively. The adjusted risk ratio for the effectiveness of four counseling sessions compared with one session was 0.69 (95% confidence interval 0.35-1.34). In subgroup analysis, the effect of nutritional guidance was greater for patients with body mass index ≥23 kg/m2, but this depended on the outcome and number of cases, and there was no essential difference between the groups. In postoperative patients with stage IA and stage IB gastric cancer, four sessions of outpatient nutrition counseling may be not superior to one counseling session in preventing weight loss.

Hydrochlorothiazide increases risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer in an elderly Japanese cohort with hypertension: The Shizuoka study

Background

Hydrochlorothiazide (HCT), a widely used hypertensive drug, has photocarcinogenic potential, leading to concerns about the development of nonmelanoma skin cancers (SCs) after intake. Despite substantial numbers of observational studies, the results remain inconsistent especially among Asian countries.

Objective

To assess the incidence of nonmelanoma SCs in hypertensive Japanese HCT users compared with nonusers.

Methods

A population-based, cohort nested, propensity score-matched study was conducted using the Shizuoka Kokuho database. All participants were patients aged ≥60 years. Hazard ratios for SC incidence were calculated in the matched cohorts using the propensity scores of potential confounders, sex, age category, comorbidities, and administration of methotrexate, cyclosporin, and statins.

Results

The risk of SC was higher in HCT users than in nonusers (hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.40), with preferential sun-exposed location and a tendency to develop squamous cell carcinoma, but not basal cell carcinoma or Bowen disease.

Limitations

No additional information was available from other than medical records. The data were confined to a Japanese population.

Conclusion

HCT use increases the risk of SC in Japanese patients with hypertension and a dark skin type, highlighting the increased risk of SC among HCT users in the aging society worldwide.

A Simple and Accurate Model for Predicting Fall Injuries in Hospitalized Patients: Insights from a Retrospective Observational Study in Japan

BACKGROUND While several predictive models for falls have been reported such as we reported in 2020, those for fall "injury" have been unreported. This study was designed to develop a model to predict fall injuries in adult inpatients using simple predictors available immediately after hospitalization. MATERIAL AND METHODS This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study. We enrolled inpatients aged ≥20 years admitted to an acute care hospital from April 2012 to March 2018. The variables routinely obtained in clinical practice were compared between the patients with fall injury and the patients without fall itself or fall injury. Multivariable analysis was performed using covariables available on admission. A predictive model was constructed using only variables showing significant association in prior multivariable analysis. RESULTS During hospitalization of 17 062 patients, 646 (3.8%) had falls and 113 (0.7%) had fall injuries. Multivariable analysis showed 6 variables that were significantly associated with fall injuries during hospitalization: age (P=0.001), sex (P=0.001), emergency transport (P<0.001), medical referral letter (P=0.041), history of falls (P=0.012), and abnormal bedriddenness ranks (all P≤0.001). The area under the curve of this predictive model was 0.794 and the shrinkage coefficient was 0.955 using the same data set given above. CONCLUSIONS We developed a predictive model for fall injuries during hospitalization using 6 predictors, including bedriddenness ranks from official Activities of Daily Living indicators in Japan, which were all easily available on admission. The model showed good discrimination by internal validation and promises to be a useful tool to assess the risk of fall injuries.

Use of the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS) to Predict Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Hip Fracture in Japan: A Cohort Study Using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

Hip fractures are common in patients of advanced age and are associated with excess mortality. Rapid and accurate prediction of the prognosis using information that can be easily obtained before surgery would be advantageous to clinical management. We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study using an 8.5-year Japanese claims database (April 2012-September 2020) to develop and validate a predictive model for long-term mortality after hip fracture. The study included 43,529 patients (34,499 [79.3%] women) aged ≥65 years with first-onset hip fracture. During the observation period, 43% of the patients died. Cox regression analysis identified the following prognostic predictors: sex, age, fracture site, nursing care certification, and several comorbidities (any malignancy, renal disease, congestive heart failure, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, metastatic solid tumor, and deficiency anemia). We then developed a scoring system called the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS); this system was established by scoring based on each hazard ratio and classifying the degree of mortality risk into four categories based on decision tree analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year mortality based on the SHiPS was 0.718 (95% CI, 0.706-0.729), 0.736 (95% CI, 0.728-0.745), and 0.758 (95% CI, 0.747-0.769), respectively, indicating good predictive performance of the SHiPS for as long as 5 years after fracture onset. Even when the SHiPS was individually applied to patients with or without surgery after fracture, the prediction performance by the AUC was >0.7. These results indicate that the SHiPS can predict long-term mortality using preoperative information regardless of whether surgery is performed after hip fracture.

Clinical trial assessing the safety of edoxaban with concomitant chemotherapy in patients with gynecological cancer-associated thrombosis (EGCAT study)

BACKGROUND

Gynecological cancer is one of the highest risk factors for cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT). Although low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) is recommended as an anticoagulant for treating CAT, recent studies have shown that direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are an acceptable alternative. Patients with cancer require a series of chemotherapies concomitantly with DOAC administration; however, the extent to which these drugs influence DOAC blood concentrations is unknown. In this study, we measured the plasma concentration of edoxaban during chemotherapy for gynecological cancers to determine its safety.

METHODS

Patients histologically diagnosed with ovarian or uterine corpus cancer and CAT were recruited after primary surgery and before the initiation of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, including paclitaxel. Patients were administered edoxaban (30 or 60 mg) orally for CAT. The plasma concentrations of edoxaban and active factor Xa were determined and their percentage change before and after chemotherapy was calculated. Additionally, blood coagulation tests were analyzed.

RESULTS

Sixteen patients with gynecological cancer (12 with ovarian cancer and 4 with uterine corpus cancer) were enrolled. Among these, 15 samples were collected one day after chemotherapy initiation. During chemotherapy, the trough concentration of edoxaban changed from 17.6 ± 10.6 to 20.0 ± 15.6 ng/ml, and the mean percentage change in edoxaban concentration was 14.5%. Therefore, the trough concentrations of edoxaban, which represent excretion capacity, were not significantly increased by chemotherapy with paclitaxel. The area under the plasma edoxaban concentration-time curve and the active factor Xa concentration were also unaffected.

CONCLUSION

Patients with CAT and ovarian or uterine corpus cancer administered edoxaban orally showed no significant increase in the trough concentration of edoxaban while undergoing chemotherapy. This suggests the safety of edoxaban use during the treatment of gynecological cancers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EGCAT study; Japan Registry of Clinical Trials, jRCTs051190024.

A single institution's experience with minimally invasive surgery for ovarian cancer, and a systematic meta-analysis of the literature

BACKGROUND

This study assesses the feasibility of minimally invasive surgery (MIS) for well-selected epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients.

METHODS

We performed a review of data prospectively collected from a single center from 2017 to 2022. Only patients with histologically confirmed EOC, with a tumor diameter of less than 10 cm, were eligible. We also performed a meta-analysis of similar studies comparing the outcomes of laparoscopy and laparotomy. We used MINORS (Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies) to assess the risk of bias and calculated the odds ratio or mean difference.

RESULTS

Eighteen patients were included; 13 in re-staging group, four in PDS group, and one in IDS group. All achieved complete cytoreduction. One case was converted to laparotomy. The median number of removed pelvic lymph nodes was 25 (range 16-34), and 32 (range 19-44) for para-aortic nodes. There were two (15.4%) intraoperative urinary tract injuries. The median follow-up was 35 months (range 1-53). Recurrence was observed in one case (7.7%). Thirteen articles for early-stage ovarian cancer were included in our meta-analysis. Analysis of the pooled results found that MIS had a higher frequency of spillage (OR, 2.15; 95% CI 1.27-3.64). No differences were observed in recurrence, complications, or up-staging.

CONCLUSIONS

Our experience supports the possibility of conducting MIS for EOC in well-selected patients. Except for spillage, our meta-analysis findings are consistent with previous reports, the majority of which were also retrospective. Ultimately, randomized clinical trials will be needed to authenticate the safety.

Risk factors, treatment and survival rates of late-onset acquired haemophilia A: A cohort study from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

INTRODUCTION

Acquired haemophilia A (AHA) is a rare disease. The risk factors have yet to be studied.

AIM

We aimed to identify risk factors for late-onset AHA in Japan.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database. The study population was defined as individuals aged ≥60 years. Cause-specific Cox regression analysis was performed to calculate hazard ratios.

RESULTS

Of 1,160,934 registrants, there were 34 patients with newly diagnosed AHA. The mean follow-up period was 5.6 years, and the incidence of AHA was 5.21 per million person-years. Myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, solid tumors, antimicrobial agents, phenytoin and anti-dementia drugs, which showed significant differences in the univariate analysis, were excluded from the multivariable analysis because of the small number of cases. Multivariable regression analysis showed that the presence of Alzheimer's disease (hazard ratio [HR]:4.28, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.67-10.97) and rheumatic disease (HR:4.65, 95% CI:1.79-12.12) increased the risk of AHA development.

CONCLUSION

We found that comorbid Alzheimer's disease is a risk factor of AHA incidence in the general population. Our findings provide insight into the etiology of AHA, and the proof of the coexistence of Alzheimer's disease may support the recent notion that Alzheimer disease is an autoimmune disease.

Factors associated with incidence of acute kidney injury: a Japanese regional population-based cohort study, the Shizuoka study

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a globally critical issue. Most studies about AKI have been conducted in limited settings on perioperative or critically ill patients. As a result, there is little information about the epidemiology and risk factors of AKI in the general population.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database. We included subjects with records of health checkup results. The observation period for each participant was defined as from the date of insurance enrollment or April 2012, whichever occurred later, until the date of insurance withdrawal or September 2020, whichever was later. Primary outcome was AKI associated with admission based on the ICD-10 code. We described the incidence of AKI and performed a multivariate analysis using potential risk factors selected from comorbidities, medications, and health checkup results.

RESULTS

Of 627,814 subjects, 8044 were diagnosed with AKI (incidence 251 per 100,000 person-years). The AKI group was older, with more males. Most comorbidities and prescribed medications were more common in the AKI group. As novel factors, statins (hazard ratio (HR) 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.89) and physical activity habits (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.83) were associated with reduced incidence of AKI. Other variables associated with AKI were approximately consistent with those from previous studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The factors associated with AKI and the incidence of AKI in the general Japanese population are indicated. This study generates the hypothesis that statins and physical activity habits are novel protective factors for AKI.

Novel Strategy for the Management of Cervical Multicystic Diseases

PURPOSE

To investigate the clinical practices of diagnosing multicystic cervical lesions as a means to develop a more appropriate diagnostic algorithm for gastric-type adenocarcinoma (GAS) and its precursors.

METHODS

Clinical information for 159 surgically treated patients for multicystic disease of the uterine cervix was collected from 15 hospitals. We performed a central review of the MRI and pathological findings. The MRI findings were categorized into four types including two newly proposed imaging features based on the morphology and distribution of cysts, and the diagnosis accuracy was assessed. Among the four MRI types, types 1 and 2 were categorized as benign lesions that included LEGH; type 3 were precancerous lesions (with an assumption of atypical LEGH); and type 4 were malignant lesions.

RESULTS

The central pathological review identified 56 cases of LEGH, seven with GAS, four with another form of carcinoma, and 92 with benign disease. In clinical practice, over-diagnosis of malignancy (suspicion of MDA) occurred for 12/19 cases (63.2%) and under-diagnosis of malignancy occurred for 4/11 (36%). Among the 118 patients who had a preoperative MRI and underwent a hysterectomy, type 3 or 4 MRI findings in conjunction with abnormal cytology were positively indicative of premalignancy or malignancy, with a sensitivity and specificity of 61.1% and 96.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the correct preoperative diagnosis of cervical cancer with a multicystic lesion is challenging, the combination of cytology and MRI findings creates a more appropriate diagnostic algorithm that significantly improves the diagnostic accuracy for differentiating benign disease from premalignancy and malignancy.

Frailty and subsequent adverse outcomes in older patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants: the Shizuoka Study

Background

In older patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), frailty is frequently prevalent. However, the prognostic value of frailty for adverse events after initiation of oral anticoagulants (OACs) is unclear.

Objectives

We assessed whether frailty at the time of OAC initiation is associated with subsequent bleeding or embolic events.

Methods

We extracted patients aged ≥65 years with nonvalvular AF in whom OACs were initiated from a universal administrative claims database incorporating primary and hospital care records in Shizuoka, Japan, between 2012 and 2018. Frailty was assessed using the electronic frailty index (eFI). The association of frailty with bleeding events and ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack were evaluated using the Fine-Gray model and restricted cubic spline model.

Results

Among 12,585 patients with AF, 7.8% were categorized as fit, 31.5% as mildly frail, 34.8% as moderately frail, and 25.9% as severely frail. The risk of bleeding was associated with a higher eFI (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [95% CI] for fit or mild frailty: 1.15 [1.02-1.30]; moderate frailty: 1.42 [1.24-1.61]; and severe frailty: 1.86 [1.61-2.15]), whereas the association was weaker for ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack. The spline models demonstrated that the relative hazard for bleeding increased steeply with increasing eFI.

Conclusion

Patients with frailty in whom OAC therapy is initiated have higher risk of bleeding, highlighting the importance of discussing this increased risk with patients with AF who have frailty and assessing frailty at the time of OAC initiation.

Effectiveness of suvorexant versus benzodiazepine receptor agonist sleep drugs in reducing the risk of hip fracture: Findings from a regional population-based cohort study

Sleep drugs are often necessary to treat insomnia in older patients. Benzodiazepine receptor agonists (BZRAs) are primarily used for insomnia in these patients, but there are concerns regarding their association with delirium and bone fractures. Among sleep drugs, orexin receptor antagonists such as suvorexant have a lower risk of delirium than BZRAs, but their effectiveness in preventing hip fractures is unknown. Hip fracture is a life-threatening trauma in advanced-age patients and a social problem. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between suvorexant and hip fracture. The Shizuoka Kokuho Database was used to compare the time to hip fracture in patients who had been newly taking suvorexant and other sleep drugs such as benzodiazepines since November 2014. A proportional hazards model for hip fracture as an outcome was used to estimate the hazard ratio. Propensity scores were estimated using a logistic regression model, and the confounding factors were age, sex, several comorbidities, and each oral medication. The suvorexant group comprised 6860 patients (110 with hip fracture), and the BZRA group (benzodiazepines and Z-drugs) comprised 50,203 patients (1487 with hip fracture). In the matched cohort (6855:6855 patients), 259 and 249 patients in the suvorexant and BZRA group developed hip fractures during the observational period, respectively. The hazard ratio of the suvorexant group compared with the BZRA group was 1.48 (95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.82). In the subgroup analysis, patients in the suvorexant group had a higher risk of hip fracture if they were aged >75 years, had no diabetes, had no neurological disease, had no renal failure, had liver disease, had hypertension, were not taking alpha 1 blockers, and were not taking oral steroids. Among people in the Japanese regional population who use sleep drugs, patients taking suvorexant can be at higher risk of hip fracture than patients taking BZRAs.

Identification of asthma cases in Japan using health insurance claims data: Positive and negative predictive values of proposed discrimination criteria: A single-center study

BACKGROUND

Asthma cases have been increasingly investigated using claims data. However, the validity of defining asthma cases using health insurance claims in Japan is unclear. This study aims to assess the positive and negative predictive values of our proposed discrimination criteria for asthma.

METHODS

We developed discrimination criteria for asthma based on both the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD)-10 disease codes for asthma and health insurance claims data for prescriptions and the treatment of asthma. Inclusion criteria were patients aged ≥16 years with at least one health insurance claim from April 2018 to March 2019 in all departments of our hospital. Physician-diagnosed asthma documented in the charts was used as the reference standard. Positive and negative predictive values of the discrimination criteria for physician-diagnosed asthma were estimated and compared with those estimated from discrimination criteria based solely on ICD-10 codes.

RESULTS

The new discrimination criteria had a high positive predictive value (PPV) of 86.0%, which was significantly higher than the PPV for the criteria defined solely by the ICD-10 codes (61.5%) (P < 0.01). The negative predictive values for both criteria were 100%. Allergic rhinitis and chronic cough were frequently misclassified as asthma using the discrimination criteria based solely on ICD-10 codes but were more likely to be appropriately classified using our proposed criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed criteria adequately identified asthma subjects using health insurance claims data in Japan with a high PPV. Further studies are needed for external validation of these criteria.

Risk factors and drugs that trigger the onset of Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis: A population-based cohort study using the Shizuoka Kokuho database

Background

Evidence of factors associated with Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) from population-based studies is scarce.

Objective

We aimed to identify the incidence, risk factors, and drugs that trigger the development of SJS/TEN in the general population.

Methods

A regional, population-based, longitudinal cohort with 2,398,393 Japanese individuals was analyzed using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database from 2012 to 2020.

Results

Among 1,909,570 individuals, 223 (0.01%, 2.3 cases/100,000 person-years) patients were diagnosed with SJS/TEN during the observational period of a maximum of 7.5 years. In a multivariable analysis, the risks of SJS/TEN were an older age, and the presence of type 2 diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and systemic autoimmune diseases. The administration of drugs, such as immune checkpoint inhibitors, insulin, and type 2 diabetes agents, triggered the onset of SJS/TEN.

Limitations

The results may apply only to the Japanese population.

Conclusion

In this cohort population from a database representing the general population, the risks of developing SJS/TEN were old age and a history of type 2 diabetes, peripheral vascular disease, and systemic autoimmune disease. Furthermore, in addition to previously reported drugs, the administration of immune checkpoint inhibitors, insulin, and type 2 diabetes agents, may trigger the development of SJS/TEN.

Impact of Systemic Autoimmune Diseases on Treatment Outcomes and Radiation Toxicities in Patients with Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy: A Matched Case-Control Analysis

We aimed to evaluate the impact of systemic autoimmune diseases (SADs) on treatment outcomes and radiation toxicities following stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We queried an institution-based database on patients with SADs treated with SBRT for lung cancer between 2001 and 2016 (SAD group). Each patient was matched to three controls without SADs. The primary outcomes of interest were the overall survival (OS) and local control rate (LCR). The secondary outcomes were radiation toxicities of grades ≥2 (≥G2). Twelve patients with SADs were matched to 36 controls. The median follow-up duration was 3.6 years. There was a significant intergroup difference in the OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.11, 95% confidence incidence [CI]: 1.82−9.27, p < 0.001) and LCR (HR: 15.97, 95% CI: 2.89−88.29, p < 0.001). However, there were no significant intergroup differences in the odds of acute (odds ratio [OR]: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.02−8.91, p = 0.550) and late (OR: 2.20, 95% CI: 0.32−15.10, p = 0.422) ≥G2 radiation pneumonitis. No other ≥G2 toxicities were identified. In conclusion, although radiation toxicities are not enhanced by SADs, SADs are risk factors of poor prognosis following SBRT for stage I NSCLC.

Intratumoral Air Bubbles and Hematemesis as Predictors of Pseudoaneurysm Rupture in Unresected Pancreatic Cancer

Objective Pseudoaneurysm rupture associated with unresected pancreatic cancer can cause rare but fatal hemobilia and gastrointestinal bleeding. This study aimed to identify factors predicting pseudoaneurysm rupture. Methods We conducted a single-center case-control study of unresected pancreatic cancer patients treated at Shizuoka General Hospital between January 2011 and July 2020 using a retrospective cancer registry database. Included in the study were 611 consecutive patients with unresected pancreatic cancer, of whom 55 developed overt upper gastrointestinal bleeding or hemobilia. Twenty patients were excluded, as they had not undergone contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) or angiography. Patients were classified into pseudoaneurysm and non-pseudoaneurysm groups. One patient with arterial bleeding but without obvious pseudoaneurysm was included in the pseudoaneurysm group. Factors predicting pseudoaneurysm rupture at the onset of overt gastrointestinal bleeding were investigated using a logistic regression analysis. CT findings revealing air bubbles inside the tumor were described as intratumoral air bubbles. Results Thirty-five patients were included (15 in the pseudoaneurysm group, 20 in the non-pseudoaneurysm group). In the multivariate analysis, intratumoral air bubbles [odds ratio (OR), 12.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.14-77.9; p=0.005] and hematemesis (OR, 6.30; 95% CI, 1.03-38.6; p=0.047) were independent predictors of pseudoaneurysm rupture. In addition, patients who experienced successful hemostasis and were re-administered chemotherapy survived more than six months. Conclusions This study reveals that intratumoral air bubbles and hematemesis may predict pseudoaneurysm rupture at the onset of overt gastrointestinal bleeding. For patients presenting these findings, an examination with conventional or CT angiography may lead to an early diagnosis and improve the patient prognosis.

Criterion-related validity of Bedriddenness Rank with other established objective scales of ADLs, and Cognitive Function Score with those of cognitive impairment, both are easy-to-use official Japanese scales: A prospective observational study

Aim

Bedriddenness Rank (BR) and Cognitive Function Score (CFS), issued by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan, are easy-to-use and widely used in the medical and long-term care insurance systems in Japan. This study aims to clarify the criterion-related validity of the CFS with the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and ABC Dementia Scale (ABC-DS), and to re-evaluate the criterion-related validity of BR with the Barthel Index (BI) or Katz Index (KI) in more appropriate settings and a larger population compared with the previous study.

Methods

A single-center prospective observational study was conducted in an acute care hospital in a suburban city in Japan. All inpatients aged 20 years or older admitted from October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019. The relationship between BR and the BI and KI, and the relationship between CFS and the MMSE and ABC-DS were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation coefficients.

Results

We enrolled 3,003 patients. Of these, 1,664 (56%) patients exhibited normal BR. The median (interquartile range) values of the BI and KI were 100 (65–100) and 6 (2–6), respectively. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between BR and the BI and KI were −0.891 (p < 0.001) and −0.877 (p < 0.001), respectively.

Of the patients, 1,967 (65.5%) showed normal CFS. The median (interquartile range) MMSE of 951 patients with abnormal CFS and ABC-DS of all patients were 15 (2–21) and 117 (102–117), respectively. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between CFS and MMSE and ABC-DS were −0.546 (p < 0.001) and −0.862 (p < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusions

BR and CFS showed significant criterion-related validity with well-established but complicated objective scales for assessing activities of daily living and cognitive functions, respectively. These two scales, which are easy to assess, are reliable and useful in busy clinical practice or large-scale screening settings.

Frailty and muscle weakness in elderly patients with asthma and their association with cumulative lifetime oral corticosteroid exposure

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome of age-related physiological decline, which is associated with higher mortality and decreased healthy life expectancy, and muscle weakness is one of the presentations of frailty. We investigated an association between lifetime oral corticosteroid (OCS) exposure with frailty and muscle weakness among elderly patients with asthma.

METHODS

We studied 203 consecutive elderly outpatients with asthma aged ≥60 years old. They were classified into three groups according to their cumulative lifetime OCS dose (lifetime non-users, lower-dose users, and higher-dose users), which was retrospectively estimated from the response to a structured questionnaire. The prevalence of frailty determined by the Kihon Checklist was compared between the three groups. Hand-grip strength, and lean mass index were also measured as markers of muscle strength.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven percent of the patients studied were considered frail. Higher cumulative lifetime OCS exposure was associated with a significantly higher prevalence of frailty (33% in lifetime non-users, 59% in lower-dose users, and 68% in higher-dose users; P for trend <0.005). This was also associated with lower hand-grip strength in both sexes (P for trend; 0.012 in men, and 0.020 in women), and lower lean mass index in men (P for trend 0.002). However, current doses of OCS were not significantly associated with these outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative lifetime OCS exposure was associated with a higher prevalence of frailty and muscle weakness. These findings emphasize the importance of minimizing lifetime OCS exposure for the prolongation of healthy life expectancy in patients with asthma.

Longitudinal changes in the prevalence of adult asthma: An epidemiological survey among Japanese salaried employees and their dependents using healthcare insurance claim from 1999 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Information on changes in asthma prevalence and the treatment status for asthma is used as basic information for taking medical and administrative measures against asthma. However, this information among adults is relatively limited.

METHODS

To elucidate changes in the prevalence of asthma and treatment status over time among Japanese adults, health insurance claim data from some health insurance societies covering salaried employees and their dependents were studied longitudinally. Claim data from FY1999 to 2007 were obtained from two health insurance societies, and data from FY 2011 to 2019 were obtained from three different health insurance societies, and changes in standardized asthma prevalence among subjects aged 20-59 years, proportion of asthma patients prescribed ICS, leukotriene receptor antagonist (LTRA), and LABA, and the mean number of acute asthma exacerbations per year were analyzed.

RESULTS

The prevalence of asthma increased from 1.6% in 1999 to 3.0% in 2007 and 2.9% in 2011 to 4.6% in 2019. Increased trends in asthma prevalence from 2011 to 2019 were more noticeable in subjects in their 50s than those in their 20s for both sexes. The number of emergency visits related to asthma was 1.5 per year in 1999, which decreased to 0.8 per year in 2019. The proportion of people prescribed all anti-asthma medications (ICS, LTRA, and LABA) increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of adult asthma among Japanese salaried employees and their dependents has increased over the last 20 years, suggesting more attention should be paid to the prevention of this disease in adults.

Anatomy-based prediction method for determining ipsilateral lung doses in postoperative breast radiation therapy assisted by diagnostic computed tomography images

Background

This study aimed to investigate whether ipsilateral lung doses (ILDs) could be predicted by anatomical indexes measured using diagnostic computed tomography (CT) prior to the planning stage of breast radiation therapy (RT).

Materials and methods

The thoracic diameters and the length of lines drawn manually were measured on diagnostic CT images. The parameters of interest were the skin maximum lung distance (sMLD), central lung distance (CLD), Haller index (HI), and body mass index (BMI). Lung dose-volume histograms were created with conformal planning, and the lung volumes receiving 5-40 Gy (V5-V40) were calculated. Linear regression models were used to investigate the correlations between the anatomical indexes and dose differences and to estimate the slope and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

A total of 160 patients who had undergone three-dimensional conformal RT after breast-conserving surgery were included. Univariable analysis revealed that the sMLD (p < 0.001), CLD (p < 0.001), HI (p = 0.002), and BMI (p < 0.001) were significantly correlated with the V20. However, multivariable analysis revealed that only the sMLD (slope: 0.147, p = 0.001, 95% CI: 0.162-0.306) and CLD (0.157, p = 0.005, 0.048-0.266) were strongly correlated with the V20. The p-value for the sMLD was the lowest among the p-values for all indexes, thereby indicating that the sMLD had the best predictive power for ILD.

Conclusions

sMLD and CLD are anatomical markers that can be used to predict ILD in whole breast RT. An sMLD > 20.5 mm or a CLD > 24.3 mm positively correlated with a high ILD.

The implicated clinical factors for outcomes in 304 patients with salivary duct carcinoma: Multi-institutional retrospective analysis in Japan

Background

Salivary duct carcinoma (SDC) is a high‐grade salivary malignancy that frequently occurs as the carcinomatous component of carcinoma ex pleomorphic adenoma. We herein examined the clinical factors affecting outcomes in a large cohort of SDC.

Methods

We selected 304 SDC cases and investigated clinical characteristics and the factors affecting outcomes.

Results

The median age of the cases examined was 68 years, the most common primary site was the parotid gland (238 cases), and there was a male predominance (M/F = 5:1). Outcomes were significantly worse when the primary tumor site was the minor salivary glands (SG) than when it was the major SG. Outcomes were also significantly worse in pN(+) cases (161 cases) than in pN0 cases, particularly those with a metastatic lymph node number ≥11. The cumulative incidence of relapse and distant metastases was significantly higher in stage IV cases than in stage 0–III cases.

Conclusions

The absolute number of lymph node metastases, higher stages, and the minor SG as the primary tumor site were identified as factors affecting the outcome of SDC.

External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study

Background

Several reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenness ranks, from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This model has not yet been prospectively validated. This study aims to prospectively validate our new predictive model for falls among inpatients admitted to two different hospitals.

Methods

A double-centered prospective cohort study was performed from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019 in an acute care hospital and a chronic care hospital. We analyzed data from all adult inpatients, for whom all data required by the predictive model were evaluated and recorded. The eight items required by the predictive model were age, gender, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, previous falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks. The main outcome is in-hospital falls among adult inpatients, and the model was assessed by area under the curve.

Results

A total of 3,551 adult participants were available, who experienced 125 falls (3.5%). The median age (interquartile range) was 78 (66–87) years, 1,701 (47.9%) were men, and the incidence of falls was 2.25 per 1,000 patient-days and 2.06 per 1,000 occupied bed days. The area under the curve of the model was 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.761–0.825). The cutoff value was set as − 2.18, making the specificity 90% with the positive predictive value and negative predictive value at 11.4% and 97%.

Conclusions

This double-centered prospective cohort external validation study showed that the new predictive model had excellent validity for falls among inpatients. This reliable and easy-to-use model is therefore recommended for prediction of falls among inpatients, to improve preventive interventions.

Trial registration

UMIN000040103 (2020/04/08)

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02871-5.

Assessment of coding-based frailty algorithms for long-term outcome prediction among older people in community settings: a cohort study from the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

OBJECTIVES

To assess the applicability of Electronic Frailty Index (eFI) and Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) algorithms to Japanese administrative claims data and to evaluate their association with long-term outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A cohort study using a regional government administrative healthcare and long-term care (LTC) claims database in Japan 2014-18.

PARTICIPANTS

Plan enrollees aged ≥50 years.

METHODS

We applied the two algorithms to the cohort and assessed the scores' distributions alongside enrollees' 4-year mortality and initiation of government-supported LTC. Using Cox regression and Fine-Gray models, we evaluated the association between frailty scores and outcomes as well as the models' discriminatory ability.

RESULTS

Among 827,744 enrollees, 42.8% were categorised by eFI as fit, 31.2% mild, 17.5% moderate and 8.5% severe. For HFRS, 73.0% were low, 24.3% intermediate and 2.7% high risk; 35 of 36 predictors for eFI, and 92 of 109 codes originally used for HFRS were available in the Japanese system. Relative to the lowest frailty group, the highest frailty group had hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 2.09 (1.98-2.21) for mortality and 2.45 (2.28-2.63) for LTC for eFI; those for HFRS were 3.79 (3.56-4.03) and 3.31 (2.87-3.82), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for the unadjusted model at 48 months was 0.68 for death and 0.68 for LTC for eFI, and 0.73 and 0.70, respectively, for HFRS.

CONCLUSIONS

The frailty algorithms were applicable to the Japanese system and could contribute to the identifications of enrollees at risk of long-term mortality or LTC use.

A new susceptibility index to predict the risk of severe herpes zoster-associated pain: A Japanese regional population-based cohort study, the Shizuoka study

BACKGROUND

Approximately 7-20% of patients with herpes zoster (HZ) develop zoster-associated pain (ZAP). ZAP not only impairs quality of life and psychological well-being, but also can reduce work effectiveness, which has negative economic effects. Reports of ZAP risk factors are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

To confirm risk factors for the development of severe ZAP in HZ patients in Japan using a large-scale database, the Shizuoka Kokuho Database.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database was conducted. Of 792,647 patients, 7491 (0.95%) experienced "severe ZAP" (as defined in this study). We developed a ZAP risk prediction scoring system by identifying risk factors using logistic regression analysis of several candidate risk factors for severe ZAP: age, sex, seasonality, and presence of comorbidities (using the Charlson comorbidity index), excluding HIV/AIDS.

RESULTS

We identified peripheral vascular disease and the onset from October to December as novel risk factors for severe ZAP, in addition to the previously reported risk factors of age and comorbidities (cerebral vascular disease, chronic pulmonary disease, rheumatic disease, peptic ulcer, liver disease, diabetes, and malignant neoplasms with/without metastasis). In contrast, dementia was found to reduce ZAP risk. We developed a susceptibility index to predict the risk of ZAP.

CONCLUSION

We newly demonstrated that peripheral vascular disease and the onset from October to December are ZAP risk factors. Our comorbidity findings support previous observations. The susceptibility index proposed here provides a new approach to the prevention of ZAP using early intervention for high-risk patients.