The effects of climate variability and seasonal influence on diarrhoeal disease in the tropical city-state of Singapore - A time-series analysis

Space-time distribution of intestinal infectious diseases and their association with socioeconomic variables in Ecuador

Background

Intestinal infectious diseases are a global concern in terms of morbidity, and they are closely linked to socioeconomic variables such as quality of life, weather and access to healthcare services. Despite progress in spatial analysis tools and geographic information systems in epidemiology, studies in Ecuador that evaluate temporal trends, specific geographic groups, and their correlation with socioeconomic variables are lacking. The absence of such information makes it challenging to formulate public health policies. This study sought to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of these diseases in Ecuador, along with their correlation with socioeconomic variables.

Methods

In Ecuador, the study was carried out in a continental territory, focusing on data related to intestinal infectious diseases collected from the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos) during the period from 2014 to 2019. This study involved spatial and temporal analyses using tools such as the global Moran's index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association to identify spatial clustering patterns and autocorrelation. Additionally, correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables were examined.

Results

During the investigated period, Ecuador registered 209,668 cases of these diseases. Notable variations in case numbers were identified, with a 9.2% increase in 2019 compared to the previous year. The most impacted group was children under 5 years old, and the highest rates were centered in the southern and southwestern regions of the country, with Limón Indanza and Chunchi being the cantons with the highest rates, notably showing a significant increase in Limón Indanza. Additionally, there were significant correlations between morbidity rates and socioeconomic variables, school dropout rates, low birth weight, and access to water services.

Conclusion

This study emphasizes the importance of considering socioeconomic variables when addressing these diseases in Ecuador. Understanding these correlations and geospatial trends can guide the development of health policies and specific intervention programs to reduce the incidence in identified high-risk areas. More specific research is needed to understand the underlying causes of variability in morbidity and develop effective prevention strategies.

Prevalence and correlates of diarrhoea among children under five in selected coastal communities in Ghana

INTRODUCTION

Diarrhoea is a preventable disease affecting children under five years disproportionately. Globally, thousands of children die from diarrhoea related diseases each year, most deaths occuring in sub-Saharan Africa where Ghana is located. Coastal communities bear the greatest brunt due to poor sanitary conditions. We assess the prevalence of diarrhoea in selected coastal communities along the eastern coast of Ghana.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study in Mumford, Opetekwei, Anyako, Anyauni and Ateteti communities in the Central, Greater Accra and Volta region respectively. We interviewed households with children under five years on the occurrence of diarrhoea and health seeking practices. We also used a checklist to assess the sanitary conditions of the household. Frequencies and proportions were generated. We determined significant differences using modified Poisson regression models at p < 0.05. Results were presented in tables and text.

RESULTS

The prevalence ratio of diarrhoea was 36% (95% CI 33-40%). Most cases were from Anyako community. All interviewed households in Mumford and Opetekwei used improved water sources whiles 94% in Atetetio used improved water sources. Children who were fully vaccinated had 32% lower prevalence of diarrhoea compared to those who were not (aPR: 0.68, 95% CI 0.55-0.84).

CONCLUSION

Diarrhoea prevalence was high inspite of the reported use of improved water sources and sanitation facilities by majority of households in the communities. Fully vaccinated children had a relatively lower prevalence of diarrhoea compared to children who were not fully vaccinated. We recommend in-depth analysis of the use of water and sanitation facilities in these settings to understand the reasons for the observed diarrhoea prevalence.

Spatial analysis of food and water-borne diseases in Ahmedabad, India: Implications for urban public health planning

Spatial analysis of infectious diseases can play an important role in mapping the spread of diseases and can support policy making at local level. Moreover, identification of disease clusters based on local geography and landscape forms the basis for disease control and prevention. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the spatial-temporal variations, hotspot areas, and potential risk factors of infectious diseases (including Viral Hepatitis, Typhoid and Diarrhea) in Ahmedabad city of India. We used Moran's I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) mapping to detect spatial clustering of diseases. Spatial and temporal regression analysis was used to identify the association between disease incidence and spatial risk factors. The Moran's I statistics identified presence of positive spatial autocorrelation within the considered diseases, with Moran's I from 0.09 for typhoid to 0.21 for diarrhea (p < 0.001). This indicates a clustering of affected wards for each disease, suggesting that cases were not randomly distributed across the city. LISA mapping demonstrated the clustering of hotspots in central regions of the city, especially towards the east of the river Sabarmati, highlighting key geographical areas with elevated disease risk. The spatial clusters of infectious diseases were consistently associated with slum population density and illiteracy. Furthermore, temporal analysis suggested illiteracy rates could increase risk of viral hepatitis by 13 % (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 1.01-1.26) and of diarrhea by 18 % (95 % CI: 1.07-1.31). Significant inverse association was also seen between viral hepatitis incidence and the distance of wards from rivers. Conclusively, the study highlight the impact of socio-economic gradients, such as slum population density (indicative of poverty) and illiteracy, on the localized transmission of water and foodborne infections. The evident social stratification between impoverished and affluent households emerges as a notable contributing factor and a potential source of differences in the dynamics of infectious diseases in Ahmedabad.

The Impact of Climate Change on Health Services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematised Review and Thematic Analysis

Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on health services as categorized by the WHO's Building Blocks for creating Climate-Resilient Health Systems. Objective: The objective was to conduct a systematized review of the published literature concerning the impact of climate change, using a thematic analysis approach to address our aim and identify areas for further research. Design: A search was conducted on 8 February 2022 using the Embase and PubMed research databases. Peer-reviewed scientific studies that were published in English from 2012 to 2022, which described at least one report concerning the impact of climate change on health services in LMICs, were included. Studies were organized based on their key characteristics, which included the date of publication, objective, method, limitations, participants, and geographical focus. The Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) was used to assess the risk of bias in the included studies. Results: Twenty-three studies were included in this review. Five areas of health services which align with the WHO building blocks framework were impacted by climate change. These health service areas included: (1) Service Delivery, (2) Human Resources, (3) Health Finance, (4) Healthcare Products and Technology, and (5) Leadership and Governance. However, research concerning the impact of climate change on health information systems, which is part of the WHO building blocks framework, did not feature in our study. The climatic effects were divided into three themes: meteorological effects, extreme weather events, and general. The research in this study found that climate change had a detrimental impact on a variety of health services, with service delivery being the most frequently reported. The risk of bias varied greatly between studies. Conclusions: Climate change has negatively impacted health services in a variety of different ways, and without further actions, this problem is likely to worsen. The WHO building blocks have provided a useful lens through which to review health services. We built an aligned framework to describe our findings and to support future climate change impact assessments in this area. We propose that further research concerning the impact of climate change on health information systems would be valuable, as well as further education and responsible policy changes to help build resilience in health services affected by climate change.

Climate change and population health in Singapore: a systematic review

Gaseous emissions have contributed to global warming, an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and poorer air quality. The associated health impacts have been well reported in temperate regions. In Singapore, key climate change adaptation measures and activities include coastal and flood protection, and mitigating heat impacts. We systematically reviewed studies examining climate variability and air quality with population health in Singapore, a tropical city-state in South-East Asia (SEA), with the aim to identify evidence gaps for policymakers. We included 14 studies with respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular outcomes, foodborne disease and dengue. Absolute humidity (3 studies) and rainfall (2 studies) were positively associated with adverse health. Extreme heat (2 studies) was inversely associated with adverse health. The effects of mean ambient temperature and relative humidity on adverse health were inconsistent. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone were positively associated with adverse health. Climate variability and air quality may have disease-specific, differing directions of effect in Singapore. Additional high quality studies are required to strengthen the evidence for policymaking. Research on effective climate action advocacy and adaptation measures for community activities should be strengthened.

Funding

There was no funding source for this study.

Exploring the Association between Ambient Temperature and Daily Hospital Admissions for Diarrhea in Mopani District, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Diarrhea contributes significantly to global morbidity and mortality. There is evidence that diarrhea prevalence is associated with ambient temperature. This study aimed to determine if there was an association between ambient temperature and diarrhea at a rural site in South Africa. Daily diarrheal hospital admissions (2007 to 2016) at two large district hospitals in Mopani district, Limpopo province were compared to average daily temperature and apparent temperature (Tapp, 'real-feel' temperature that combined temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed). Linear regression and threshold regression, age-stratified to participants ≤5 years and >5 years old, considered changes in daily admissions by unit °C increase in Tapp. Daily ranges in ambient temperature and Tapp were 2-42 °C and -5-34 °C, respectively. For every 1 °C increase in average daily temperature, there was a 6% increase in hospital admissions for diarrhea for individuals of all ages (95% CI: 0.04-0.08; p < 0.001) and a 4% increase in admissions for individuals older than 5 years (95% CI: 0.02-0.05; p < 0.001). A positive linear relationship between average daily Tapp and all daily diarrheal admissions for children ≤5 years old was not statistically significant (95% CI: -0.00-0.03; p = 0.107). Diarrhea is common in children ≤5 years old, however, is more likely triggered by factors other than temperature/Tapp, while it is likely associated with increased temperature in individuals >5 years old. We are limited by lack of data on confounders and effect modifiers, thus, our findings are exploratory. To fully quantify how temperature affects hospital admission counts for diarrhea, future studies should include socio-economic-demographic factors as well as WASH-related data such as personal hygiene practices and access to clean water.

Effects of Ambient Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Precipitation on Diarrhea Incidence in Surabaya

BACKGROUND

Diarrhea remains a common infectious disease caused by various risk factors in developing countries. This study investigated the incidence rate and temporal associations between diarrhea and meteorological determinants in five regions of Surabaya, Indonesia.

METHOD

Monthly diarrhea records from local governmental health facilities in Surabaya and monthly means of weather variables, including average temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity from Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency were collected from January 2018 to September 2020. The generalized additive model was employed to quantify the time lag association between diarrhea risk and extremely low (5th percentile) and high (95th percentile) monthly weather variations in the north, central, west, south, and east regions of Surabaya (lag of 0-2 months).

RESULT

The average incidence rate for diarrhea was 11.4 per 100,000 during the study period, with a higher incidence during rainy season (November to March) and in East Surabaya. This study showed that the weather condition with the lowest diarrhea risks varied with the region. The diarrhea risks were associated with extremely low and high temperatures, with the highest RR of 5.39 (95% CI 4.61, 6.17) in the east region, with 1 month of lag time following the extreme temperatures. Extremely low relative humidity increased the diarrhea risks in some regions of Surabaya, with the highest risk in the west region at lag 0 (RR = 2.13 (95% CI 1.79, 2.47)). Extremely high precipitation significantly affects the risk of diarrhea in the central region, at 0 months of lag time, with an RR of 3.05 (95% CI 2.09, 4.01).

CONCLUSION

This study identified a high incidence of diarrhea in the rainy season and in the deficient developed regions of Surabaya, providing evidence that weather magnifies the adverse effects of inadequate environmental sanitation. This study suggests the local environmental and health sectors codevelop a weather-based early warning system and improve local sanitation practices as prevention measures in response to increasing risks of infectious diseases.

Risk assessment of Cryptosporidium intake in drinking water treatment plant by a combination of predictive models and event-tree and fault-tree techniques

Risk-informed decision making permits a more effective water safety management. In this framework, this article introduces the rationale and proposes a new approach to carry out a quantitative risk assessment along the water chain, from river source to tap water, by integrating predictive modelling combined with event-tree and fault-tree techniques. The model developed by this approach could not only account for normal but also for abnormal process conditions in the water treatment plant, as well as assess the real impact of the applied safety controls, such as turbidity control. A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect of considering a typical drinking water treatment plant (DWTP), i.e. coagulation, sedimentation and filtration with two turbidity controls (on intake and after filtration) on the risk of infection due to exposure to Cryptosporidium in tap water. The results showed that, with the current effectiveness of turbidity reduction in the DWTP, the first control did not minimise the annual risk of Cryptosporidium infection (3.6E-04) and only limiting turbidity after filtration to below 0.01NTU provided a clear reduction in risk (7.7E-05) at the cost of rejecting 60 % of the water after the control. The lowest risk was found when turbidity reduction was set at 4 logs (8.48E-06), although this means that the effectiveness of turbidity reduction should be greatly improved. It was therefore concluded that supplementing the current treatment with alternative barriers such as UV or ozone disinfection and/or implementing direct control of Cryptosporidium concentration should be considered.

Floods and diarrheal morbidity: Evidence on the relationship, effect modifiers, and attributable risk from Sichuan Province, China

Background

Although studies have provided the estimates of floods-diarrhoea associations, little is known about the lag effect, effect modification, and attributable risk. Based on Sichuan, China, an uneven socio-economic development province with plateau, basin, and mountain terrains spanning different climatic zones, we aimed to systematically examine the impacts of floods on diarrheal morbidity.

Methods

We retrieved information on daily diarrheal cases, floods, meteorological variables, and annual socio-economic characteristics for 21 cities in Sichuan from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019. We fitted time-series Poisson models to estimate the city-specific floods-diarrhoea relation over the lags of 0-14 days, and then pooled them using meta-analysis for cumulative and lag effects. We further employed meta-regression to explore potential effect modifiers and identify effect modification. We calculated the attributable diarrheal cases and fraction of attributable morbidity within the framework of the distributed lag model.

Results

Floods had a significant cumulative association with diarrhoea at the provincial level, but varied by regions and cities. The effects of the floods appeared on the second day after the floods and lasted for 5 days. Floods-diarrhoea relations were modified by three effect modifiers, with stronger flood effects on diarrhoea found in areas with higher air pressure, lower diurnal temperature range, or warmer temperature. Floods were responsible for advancing a fraction of diarrhoea, corresponding to 0.25% within the study period and 0.48% within the flood season.

Conclusions

The impacts imposed by floods were mainly distributed within the first week. The floods-diarrhoea relations varied by geographic and climatic conditions. The diarrheal burden attributable to floods is currently low in Sichuan, but this figure could increase with the exposure more intensive and the effect modifiers more detrimental in the future. Our findings are expected to provide evidence for the formulation of temporal- and spatial-specific strategies to reduce potential risks of flood-related diarrhoea.

Huang Bai Jian Pi decoction alleviates diarrhea and represses inflammatory injury via PI3K/Akt/NF-κB pathway: In vivo and in vitro studies

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE

Huang Bai Jian Pi (HBJP) decoction, a Chinese herbal formula based on the Pulsatilla decoction (PD) and Si Junzi decoction, is efficacy to treat clinical diarrhea in calves.

AIM OF THE STUDY

The mechanism of HBJP decoction to treat calf diarrhea remains unclear. This study was to investigate the therapeutic effect and anti-inflammatory mechanism of HBJP decoction on diarrhea in rats.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Thirty-six Sprague Dawley rats were randomly divided into control group, model group, PD group and three treated groups with HBJP decoction. The diarrheal model in rats was established by multiple factors including high-sugar and fat diet, high temperature and dampness environment, biological pathogenic factors. The diarrheal animals were treated with HBJP decoction or PD for 5 days. The inflammatory model of the intestinal epithelioid cell line 6 (IEC-6) was induced by TNF-α. The clinical symptoms, blood routine and biochemistry parameters, histopathology of main organs were detected. The proteins associated with PI3K/Akt/NF-κB pathway and the expression levels of cytokines associated with inflammation were detected in vivo and in vitro by Western blot and ELISA.

RESULTS

The model rats showed obvious diarrheal symptoms, and the obvious systemic inflammatory response accompanied with abnormal change in blood routine, biochemistry parameters and histopathology. HBJP decoction alleviated obviously the clinical symptoms, and pathological changes of the liver, colon and lung, and abnormal blood routine and biochemistry indexes in rats. The expression of P-PI3K, P-Akt, P-NF-κB, IL-1β, IL-6 was significantly increased, and the expression of IL-10 was markedly decreased in diarrheal rats and IEC-6 with inflammation. HBJP decoction significantly inhibited the PI3K/AKT/NF-κB signal pathway and adjusted the expression of these inflammatory cytokines.

CONCLUSIONS

The finding suggested that HBJP decoction alleviate the inflammation in diarrhea through inhibiting the PI3K/Akt/NF-κB signal pathway, which provides scientific evidences for the clinical application of HBJP decoction in diarrhea.

Effects of Climatic Factors on Diarrheal Diseases among Children below 5 Years of Age at National and Subnational Levels in Nepal: An Ecological Study

Introduction: The incidence of diarrhea, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries such as Nepal, is temperature-sensitive, suggesting it could be associated with climate change. With climate change fueled increases in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, the incidence of water and food-borne diseases are increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This national-level ecological study was undertaken to provide evidence linking weather and climate with diarrhea incidence in Nepal. Method: We analyzed monthly diarrheal disease count and meteorological data from all districts, spanning 15 eco-development regions of Nepal. Meteorological data and monthly data on diarrheal disease were sourced, respectively, from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Government of Nepal for the period from 2002 to 2014. Time-series log-linear regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and diarrhea burden. Predictors with p-values < 0.25 were retained in the fitted models. Results: Overall, diarrheal disease incidence in Nepal significantly increased with 1 °C increase in mean temperature (4.4%; 95% CI: 3.95, 4.85) and 1 cm increase in rainfall (0.28%; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.41). Seasonal variation of diarrheal incidence was prominent at the national level (11.63% rise in diarrheal cases in summer (95% CI: 4.17, 19.61) and 14.5% decrease in spring (95% CI: −18.81, −10.02) compared to winter season). Moreover, the effects of temperature and rainfall were highest in the mountain region compared to other ecological regions of Nepal. Conclusion: Our study provides empirical evidence linking weather factors and diarrheal disease burden in Nepal. This evidence suggests that additional climate change could increase diarrheal disease incidence across the nation. Mountainous regions are more sensitive to climate variability and consequently the burden of diarrheal diseases. These findings can be utilized to allocate necessary resources and envision a weather-based early warning system for the prevention and control of diarrheal diseases in Nepal.

Exploring the effect of the primary care health workers number on infectious diarrhea morbidity and where the health resources should go

We aimed to explore the association between the number of primary healthcare workers and infectious diarrhea morbidity at community levels and to provide evidence-based implications for optimizing primary healthcare manpower resource allocations. We collected annual infectious diarrhea morbidity and relevant data of 4321 communities in Sichuan Province, China, from 2017 to 2019. Global and local Moran’s I were calculated to detect the spatial clustering of infectious diarrhea morbidity and to identify areas where increased primary healthcare manpower resources should be allocated. The spatial lag fixed effects panel data model was adopted to explore the association between the number of primary healthcare workers per 1000 residents and infectious diarrhea morbidity. Significantly high–high and low–low clusters of infectious diarrhea cases were found to be mainly distributed in underdeveloped and developed areas during the studied period years, respectively. The infectious diarrhea morbidity was found to be statistically negatively associated with the number of primary healthcare workers per 1000 residents with a coefficient of − 0.172, indicating that a 0.172 reduction of infectious diarrhea morbidity (1/10,000) was associated with doubled amounts of primary healthcare workers per 1000 residents. Our findings highlighted the role of primary healthcare in the process of infectious diarrhea prevention and control, and implied that constant efforts should be addressed to facilitate infectious diarrhea prevention and control, especially in the underdeveloped areas.

Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection: An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics

Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen-specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens-adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia-was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset-precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non-linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7-day average temperatures-a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.85) above 28°C-while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36-1.50), in the 20-35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower-than-average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea-causing agents as the global climate changes.

Economic burden of childhood diarrhea in Burundi

BACKGROUND

In 2016, diarrhea killed around 7 children aged under 5 years per 1000 live births in Burundi. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic burden associated with diarrhea in Burundi and to examine factors affecting the cost to provide economic evidence useful for the policymaking about clinical management of diarrhea.

METHODS

The study was designed as a prospective cost-of-illness study using an incidence-based approach from the societal perspective. The study included patients aged under 5 years with acute non-bloody diarrhea who visited Buyenzi health center and Prince Regent Charles hospital from November to December 2019. Data were collected through interviews with patients' caregivers and review of patients' medical and financial records. Multiple linear regression was performed to identify factors affecting cost, and a cost model was used to generate predictions of various clinical and care management costs. All costs were converted into international dollars for the year 2019.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-eight patients with an average age of 14.45 months were included in this study. Twenty-one percent of the total patients included were admitted. The average total cost per episode of diarrhea was Int$109.01. Outpatient visit and hospitalization costs per episode of diarrhea were Int$59.87 and Int$292, respectively. The costs were significantly affected by the health facility type, patient type, health insurance scheme, complications with dehydration, and duration of the episode before consultation. Our model indicates that the prevention of one case of dehydration results in savings of Int$16.81, accounting for approximately 11 times of the primary treatment cost of one case of diarrhea in the community-based management program for diarrhea in Burundi.

CONCLUSION

Diarrhea is associated with a substantial economic burden to society. Evidence from this study provides useful information to support health interventions aimed at prevention of diarrhea and dehydration related to diarrhea in Burundi. Appropriate and timely care provided to patients with diarrhea in their communities and primary health centers can significantly reduce the economic burden of diarrhea. Implementing a health policy to provide inexpensive treatment to prevent dehydration can save significant amount of health expenditure.