Epidemiology and control of onchocerciasis: the threshold biting rate of savannah onchocerciasis in Africa

Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination

Background

Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical filarial disease transmitted by the bites of blackflies, causing blindness and severe skin lesions. The change in focus for onchocerciasis management from control to elimination requires thorough mapping of pre-control endemicity to identify areas requiring interventions and to monitor progress. Onchocerca volvulus nodule prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is spatially continuous and heterogeneous, and highly endemic areas may contribute to transmission in areas of low endemicity or vice-versa. Ethiopia is one such onchocerciasis-endemic country with heterogeneous O. volvulus nodule prevalence, and many districts are still unmapped despite their potential for onchocerciasis transmission.

Methodology/Principle findings

A Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted for retrospective pre-intervention nodule prevalence data collected from 916 unique sites and 35,077 people across Ethiopia. We used multiple environmental, socio-demographic, and climate variables to estimate the pre-intervention prevalence of O. volvulus nodules across Ethiopia and to explore their relationship with prevalence. Prevalence was high in southern and northwestern Ethiopia and low in Ethiopia’s central and eastern parts. Distance to the nearest river (RR: 0.9850, 95% BCI: 0.9751–0.995), precipitation seasonality (RR: 0.9837, 95% BCI: 0.9681–0.9995), and flow accumulation (RR: 0.9586, 95% BCI: 0.9321–0.9816) were negatively associated with O. volvulus nodule prevalence, while soil moisture (RR: 1.0218, 95% BCI: 1.0135–1.0302) was positively associated. The model estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of O. volvulus nodules in Ethiopia to be around 6.48 million (95% BCI: 3.53–13.04 million).

Conclusions/Significance

Nodule prevalence distribution was correlated with habitat suitability for vector breeding and associated biting behavior. The modeled pre-intervention prevalence can be used as a guide for determining priorities for elimination mapping in regions of Ethiopia that are currently unmapped, most of which have comparatively low infection prevalence.

Areas with unknown onchocerciasis endemicity may pose a threat to eliminating transmission because they may re-introduce onchocerciasis to areas where interventions have been successful. Additionally, because vectors (and thus Onchocerca volvulus transmission) have specific ecological requirements for growth and development, changes in these ecological factors due to human activities (deforestation, modification of river flows by dam construction, climate change) might change patterns of parasite transmission and endemicity. To estimate the impact of environmental changes, we must first identify ecological factors determining prevalence. We have employed Bayesian geostatistical modeling to create a nationwide O. volvulus nodule prevalence map for Ethiopia based on pre-intervention nodule prevalence data and have explored the effect of environmental variables on nodule prevalence. We estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of nodules and associated uncertainty in previously unmapped areas of Ethiopia to identify areas that need additional data to increase the prediction accuracy. Hydrological variables such as distance to the nearest river, precipitation seasonality, soil moisture, and flow accumulation are associated significantly with O. volvulus nodule prevalence. We show that the spatial distribution of nodule prevalence can be estimated based on ecological data and that predicted prevalence can be used as a guide to prioritize pre-intervention mapping.

Modelling gambiense human African trypanosomiasis infection in villages of the Democratic Republic of Congo using Kolmogorov forward equations

Stochastic methods for modelling disease dynamics enable the direct computation of the probability of elimination of transmission. For the low-prevalence disease of human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), we develop a new mechanistic model for gHAT infection that determines the full probability distribution of the gHAT infection using Kolmogorov forward equations. The methodology allows the analytical investigation of the probabilities of gHAT elimination in the spatially connected villages of different prevalence health zones of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and captures the uncertainty using exact methods. Our method provides a more realistic approach to scaling the probability of elimination of infection between single villages and much larger regions, and provides results comparable to established models without the requirement of detailed infection structure. The novel flexibility allows the interventions in the model to be implemented specific to each village, and this introduces the framework to consider the possible future strategies of test-and-treat or direct treatment of individuals living in villages where cases have been found, using a new drug.

Optimization of Slash and Clear Community-Directed Control of Simulium damnosum Sensu Stricto in Northern Uganda

Onchocerciasis, caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, has been targeted for elimination by 2030. Currently, onchocerciasis elimination programs rely primarily on mass distribution of ivermectin. However, ivermectin alone may not be sufficient to achieve elimination in some circumstances, and additional tools may be needed. Vector control has been used as a tool to control onchocerciasis, but vector control using insecticides is expensive and ecologically detrimental. Community-directed removal of the trailing vegetation blackfly larval attachment sites (slash and clear) has been shown to dramatically reduce vector biting densities. Here, we report studies to optimize the slash and clear process. Conducting slash and clear interventions at Simulium damnosum sensu stricto breeding sites located within 2 km of afflicted communities resulted in a 95% reduction in vector biting. Extending slash and clear further than 2 km resulted in no further decrease. A single intervention conducted at the first half of the rainy season resulted in a 97% reduction in biting rate, whereas an intervention conducted at the end of the rainy season resulted in a 94% reduction. Vector numbers in any of the intervention villages did not fully recover by the start of the following rainy season. These results suggest that slash and clear may offer an inexpensive and effective way to augment ivermectin distribution in the effort to eliminate onchocerciasis in Africa.

Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness

Concern is emerging regarding the challenges posed by spatial complexity for modelling and managing the area-wide elimination of parasitic infections. While this has led to calls for applying heterogeneity-based approaches for addressing this complexity, questions related to spatial scale, the discovery of locally-relevant models, and its interaction with options for interrupting parasite transmission remain to be resolved. We used a data-driven modelling framework applied to infection data gathered from different monitoring sites to investigate these questions in the context of understanding the transmission dynamics and efforts to eliminate Simulium neavei- transmitted onchocerciasis, a macroparasitic disease that causes river blindness in Western Uganda and other regions of Africa. We demonstrate that our Bayesian-based data-model assimilation technique is able to discover onchocerciasis models that reflect local transmission conditions reliably. Key management variables such as infection breakpoints and required durations of drug interventions for achieving elimination varied spatially due to site-specific parameter constraining; however, this spatial effect was found to operate at the larger focus level, although intriguingly including vector control overcame this variability. These results show that data-driven modelling based on spatial datasets and model-data fusing methodologies will be critical to identifying both the scale-dependent models and heterogeneity-based options required for supporting the successful elimination of S. neavei-borne onchocerciasis.

Modelling exposure heterogeneity and density dependence in onchocerciasis using a novel individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM: Implications for elimination and data needs

BACKGROUND

Density dependence in helminth establishment and heterogeneity in exposure to infection are known to drive resilience to interventions based on mass drug administration (MDA). However, the interaction between these processes is poorly understood. We developed a novel individual-based model for onchocerciasis transmission, EPIONCHO-IBM, which accounts for both processes. We fit the model to pre-intervention epidemiological data and explore parasite dynamics during MDA with ivermectin.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Density dependence and heterogeneity in exposure to blackfly (vector) bites were estimated by fitting the model to matched pre-intervention microfilarial prevalence, microfilarial intensity and vector biting rate data from savannah areas of Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire/Burkina Faso using Latin hypercube sampling. Transmission dynamics during 25 years of annual and biannual ivermectin MDA were investigated. Density dependence in parasite establishment within humans was estimated for different levels of (fixed) exposure heterogeneity to understand how parametric uncertainty may influence treatment dynamics. Stronger overdispersion in exposure to blackfly bites results in the estimation of stronger density-dependent parasite establishment within humans, consequently increasing resilience to MDA. For all levels of exposure heterogeneity tested, the model predicts a departure from the functional forms for density dependence assumed in the deterministic version of the model.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first, stochastic model of onchocerciasis, that accounts for and estimates density-dependent parasite establishment in humans alongside exposure heterogeneity. Capturing the interaction between these processes is fundamental to our understanding of resilience to MDA interventions. Given that uncertainty in these processes results in very different treatment dynamics, collecting data on exposure heterogeneity would be essential for improving model predictions during MDA. We discuss possible ways in which such data may be collected as well as the importance of better understanding the effects of immunological responses on establishing parasites prior to and during ivermectin treatment.

After 70 years of fighting an age-old scourge, onchocerciasis in Uganda, the end is in sight

Onchocerciasis causes severe itching, serious skin disease and ocular damage leading to visual impairment or permanent blindness. It is associated with hanging groin, epilepsy, Nakalanga dwarfism and, most recently, nodding disease. This disease affected communities in 17 transmission foci in 37 districts of Uganda, where about 6.7 million people are once at risk. The efforts against onchocerciasis in Uganda commenced in the late 1940s, when vector control was launched using dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane; by 1973, Simulium damnosum had been eliminated in the Victoria focus. Success outside of the Victoria focus was short-lived due to changes in government priorities and the political upheavals of the 1970s and 1980s. With the return of political stability, annual treatment with ivermectin through mass drug administration was launched in the early 1990s. Control of the disease has been successful, but there has been failure in interrupting transmission after more than 15 years. In 2007 Uganda launched a nationwide transmission elimination policy based on twice-per-year treatment and vector control/elimination, with a goal of eliminating river blindness nationwide by 2020. By 2017, 1 157 303 people from six foci had been freed from river blindness. This is the largest population ever declared free under World Health Organization elimination guidelines, providing evidence that elimination of river blindness in Africa is possible.

Modelling the impact of larviciding on the population dynamics and biting rates of Simulium damnosum (s.l.): implications for vector control as a complementary strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa

BACKGROUND

In 2012, the World Health Organization set goals for the elimination of onchocerciasis transmission by 2020 in selected African countries. Epidemiological data and mathematical modelling have indicated that elimination may not be achieved with annual ivermectin distribution in all endemic foci. Complementary and alternative treatment strategies (ATS), including vector control, will be necessary. Implementation of vector control will require that the ecology and population dynamics of Simulium damnosum (sensu lato) be carefully considered.

METHODS

We adapted our previous SIMuliid POPulation dynamics (SIMPOP) model to explore the impact of larvicidal insecticides on S. damnosum (s.l.) biting rates in different ecological contexts and to identify how frequently and for how long vector control should be continued to sustain substantive reductions in vector biting. SIMPOP was fitted to data from large-scale aerial larviciding trials in savannah sites (Ghana) and small-scale ground larviciding trials in forest areas (Cameroon). The model was validated against independent data from Burkina Faso/Côte d'Ivoire (savannah) and Bioko (forest). Scenario analysis explored the effects of ecological and programmatic factors such as pre-control daily biting rate (DBR) and larviciding scheme design on reductions and resurgences in biting rates.

RESULTS

The estimated efficacy of large-scale aerial larviciding in the savannah was greater than that of ground-based larviciding in the forest. Small changes in larvicidal efficacy can have large impacts on intervention success. At 93% larvicidal efficacy (a realistic value based on field trials), 10 consecutive weekly larvicidal treatments would reduce DBRs by 96% (e.g. from 400 to 16 bites/person/day). At 70% efficacy, and for 10 weekly applications, the DBR would decrease by 67% (e.g. from 400 to 132 bites/person/day). Larviciding is more likely to succeed in areas with lower water temperatures and where blackfly species have longer gonotrophic cycles.

CONCLUSIONS

Focal vector control can reduce vector biting rates in settings where a high larvicidal efficacy can be achieved and an appropriate duration and frequency of larviciding can be ensured. Future work linking SIMPOP with onchocerciasis transmission models will permit evaluation of the impact of combined anti-vectorial and anti-parasitic interventions on accelerating elimination of the disease.

The esperanza window trap reduces the human biting rate of Simulium ochraceum s.l. in formerly onchocerciasis endemic foci in Southern Mexico

Background

The Esperanza Window Trap (EWT) baited with CO₂ and human sweat compounds is attractive to Simulium ochraceum s.l., the primary vector of Onchocerca volvulus in the historically largest endemic foci in México and Guatemala.

Methodology/Principal findings

The ability of the EWT to locally reduce numbers of questing S. ochraceum s.l. was evaluated in two formerly onchocerciasis endemic communities in Southern México. At each community, two EWTs were placed in or near a school or household and flies were collected sequentially for a total of 10 days. Black fly collections were then carried out for an additional 10 days in the absence of the EWTs. Flies were also collected outside the dwellings to control for variations in the local fly populations. When the EWTs were present, there was a significant reduction in the human biting rate at both the household and school locations at collection sites, with a greater effect observed in the schools.

Conclusions/Significance

These results indicate that the EWTs not only have potential as a black fly monitoring tool but may be used for reducing personal exposure to fly bites in Mesoamerica.

The Esperanza window trap (EWT), when used in large numbers (3-4/household and >90% coverage) and baited with human sweat compounds and CO₂, can be used to collect epidemiologically significant numbers of Simulium ochraceum s.l., the primary vector of Onchocerca volvulus in the historically largest endemic foci in México and Guatemala. In the present study, we evaluated the ability of the EWT to reduce the personal biting rate by questing S. ochraceum s.l. in two formerly onchocerciasis endemic communities in Southern México. At each community, two EWTs were placed in or near a school or household and flies were collected sequentially for a total of 10 days. Black fly collections were then carried out for an additional 10 days in the absence of the EWTs. When the EWTs were present, there was a significant reduction in the human biting rate at each of the four collection sites, varying from 14% to 51%. This study demonstrates that the EWTs have potential both as a black fly monitoring and personal exposure reduction tool in Mesoamerica.

River Blindness: Mathematical Models for Control and Elimination

Human onchocerciasis (river blindness) is one of the few neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) whose control strategies have been informed by mathematical modelling. With the change in focus from elimination of the disease burden to elimination of Onchocerca volvulus, much remains to be done to refine, calibrate and validate existing models. Under the impetus of the NTD Modelling Consortium, the teams that developed EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM have joined forces to compare and improve these frameworks to better assist ongoing elimination efforts. We review their current versions and describe how they are being used to address two key questions: (1) where can onchocerciasis be eliminated with current intervention strategies by 2020/2025? and (2) what alternative/complementary strategies could help to accelerate elimination where (1) cannot be achieved? The control and elimination of onchocerciasis from the African continent is at a crucial crossroad. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control closed at the end of 2015, and although a new platform for support and integration of NTD control has been launched, the disease will have to compete with a myriad of other national health priorities at a pivotal time in the road to elimination. However, never before had onchocerciasis control a better arsenal of intervention strategies as well as diagnostics. It is, therefore, timely to present two models of different geneses and modelling traditions as they come together to produce robust decision-support tools. We start by describing the structural and parametric assumptions of EPIONCHO and ONCHOSIM; we continue by summarizing the modelling of current treatment strategies with annual (or biannual) mass ivermectin distribution and introduce a number of alternative strategies, including other microfilaricidal therapies (such as moxidectin), macrofilaricidal (anti-wolbachial) treatments, focal vector control and the possibility of an onchocerciasis vaccine. We conclude by discussing challenges, opportunities and future directions.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: persistence under different control strategies and the role of the simuliid vectors

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3-24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100 times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0-4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance.

Identification of human semiochemicals attractive to the major vectors of onchocerciasis

BACKGROUND

Entomological indicators are considered key metrics to document the interruption of transmission of Onchocerca volvulus, the etiological agent of human onchocerciasis. Human landing collection is the standard employed for collection of the vectors for this parasite. Recent studies reported the development of traps that have the potential for replacing humans for surveillance of O. volvulus in the vector population. However, the key chemical components of human odor that are attractive to vector black flies have not been identified.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Human sweat compounds were analyzed using GC-MS analysis and compounds common to three individuals identified. These common compounds, with others previously identified as attractive to other hematophagous arthropods were evaluated for their ability to stimulate and attract the major onchocerciasis vectors in Africa (Simulium damnosum sensu lato) and Latin America (Simulium ochraceum s. l.) using electroantennography and a Y tube binary choice assay. Medium chain length carboxylic acids and aldehydes were neurostimulatory for S. damnosum s.l. while S. ochraceum s.l. was stimulated by short chain aliphatic alcohols and aldehydes. Both species were attracted to ammonium bicarbonate and acetophenone. The compounds were shown to be attractive to the relevant vector species in field studies, when incorporated into a formulation that permitted a continuous release of the compound over time and used in concert with previously developed trap platforms.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The identification of compounds attractive to the major vectors of O. volvulus will permit the development of optimized traps. Such traps may replace the use of human vector collectors for monitoring the effectiveness of onchocerciasis elimination programs and could find use as a contributing component in an integrated vector control/drug program aimed at eliminating river blindness in Africa.

Onchocerciasis transmission in Ghana: biting and parous rates of host-seeking sibling species of the Simulium damnosum complex

Background

Ghana is renowned for its sibling species diversity of the Simulium damnosum complex, vectors of Onchocerca volvulus. Detailed entomological knowledge becomes a priority as onchocerciasis control policy has shifted from morbidity reduction to elimination of infection. To date, understanding of transmission dynamics of O. volvulus has been mainly based on S. damnosum sensu stricto (s.s.) data. We aim to elucidate bionomic features of vector species of importance for onchocerciasis elimination efforts.

Methods

We collected S. damnosum sensu lato from seven villages in four Ghanaian regions between 2009 and 2011, using standard vector collection, and human- and cattle-baited tents. Taxa were identified using morphological and molecular techniques. Monthly biting rates (MBR), parous rates and monthly parous biting rates (MPBR) are reported by locality, season, trapping method and hour of collection for each species.

Results

S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum were collected at Asubende and Agborlekame, both savannah villages. A range of species was caught in the Volta region (forest-savannah mosaic) and Gyankobaa (forest), with S. squamosum or S. sanctipauli being the predominant species, respectively. In Bosomase (southern forest region) only S. sanctipauli was collected in the 2009 wet season, but in the 2010 dry season S. yahense was also caught. MBRs ranged from 714 bites/person/month at Agborlekame (100% S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum) to 8,586 bites/person/month at Pillar 83/Djodji (98.5% S. squamosum). MBRs were higher in the wet season. In contrast, parous rates were higher in the dry season (41.8% vs. 18.4%), resulting in higher MPBRs in the dry season. Daily host-seeking activity of S. damnosum s.s./S. sirbanum was bimodal, whilst S. squamosum and S. sanctipauli had unimodal afternoon peaks.

Conclusions

The bionomic differences between sibling species of the S. damnosum complex need to be taken into account when designing entomological monitoring protocols for interventions and parameterising mathematical models for onchocerciasis control and elimination.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-014-0511-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A randomized, single-ascending-dose, ivermectin-controlled, double-blind study of moxidectin in Onchocerca volvulus infection

BACKGROUND

Control of onchocerciasis as a public health problem in Africa relies on annual mass ivermectin distribution. New tools are needed to achieve elimination of infection. This study determined in a small number of Onchocerca volvulus infected individuals whether moxidectin, a veterinary anthelminthic, is safe enough to administer it in a future large study to further characterize moxidectin's safety and efficacy. Effects on the parasite were also assessed.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Men and women from a forest area in South-eastern Ghana without ivermectin mass distribution received a single oral dose of 2 mg (N = 44), 4 mg (N = 45) or 8 mg (N = 38) moxidectin or 150 µg/kg ivermectin (N = 45) with 18 months follow up. All ivermectin and 97%-100% of moxidectin treated participants had Mazzotti reactions. Statistically significantly higher percentages of participants treated with 8 mg moxidectin than participants treated with ivermectin experienced pruritus (87% vs. 56%), rash (63% vs. 42%), increased pulse rate (61% vs. 36%) and decreased mean arterial pressure upon 2 minutes standing still after ≥5 minutes supine relative to pre-treatment (61% vs. 27%). These reactions resolved without treatment. In the 8 mg moxidectin and ivermectin arms, the mean±SD number of microfilariae/mg skin were 22.9±21.1 and 21.2±16.4 pre-treatment and 0.0±0.0 and 1.1±4.2 at nadir reached 1 and 3 months after treatment, respectively. At 6 months, values were 0.0±0.0 and 1.6±4.5, at 12 months 0.4±0.9 and 3.4±4.4 and at 18 months 1.8±3.3 and 4.0±4.8, respectively, in the 8 mg moxidectin and ivermectin arm. The reduction from pre-treatment values was significantly higher after 8 mg moxidectin than after ivermectin treatment throughout follow up (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The 8 mg dose of moxidectin was safe enough to initiate the large study. Provided its results confirm those from this study, availability of moxidectin to control programmes could help them achieve onchocerciasis elimination objectives.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00300768.

Validation of a remote sensing model to identify Simulium damnosum s.l. breeding sites in Sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Recently, most onchocerciasis control programs have begun to focus on elimination. Developing an effective elimination strategy relies upon accurately mapping the extent of endemic foci. In areas of Africa that suffer from a lack of infrastructure and/or political instability, developing such accurate maps has been difficult. Onchocerciasis foci are localized near breeding sites for the black fly vectors of the infection. The goal of this study was to conduct ground validation studies to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of a remote sensing model developed to predict S. damnosum s.l. breeding sites.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Remote sensing images from Togo were analyzed to identify areas containing signature characteristics of S. damnosum s.l. breeding habitat. All 30 sites with the spectral signature were found to contain S. damnosum larvae, while 0/52 other sites judged as likely to contain larvae were found to contain larvae. The model was then used to predict breeding sites in Northern Uganda. This area is hyper-endemic for onchocerciasis, but political instability had precluded mass distribution of ivermectin until 2009. Ground validation revealed that 23/25 sites with the signature contained S. damnosum larvae, while 8/10 sites examined lacking the signature were larvae free. Sites predicted to have larvae contained significantly more larvae than those that lacked the signature.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study suggests that a signature extracted from remote sensing images may be used to predict the location of S. damnosum s.l. breeding sites with a high degree of accuracy. This method should be of assistance in predicting communities at risk for onchocerciasis in areas of Africa where ground-based epidemiological surveys are difficult to implement.

Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus continues in Nyagak-Bondo focus of northwestern Uganda after 18 years of a single dose of annual treatment with ivermectin

The objective of the study was to determine whether annual ivermectin treatment in the Nyagak-Bondo onchocerciasis focus could safely be withdrawn. Baseline skin snip microfilariae (mf) and nodule prevalence data from six communities were compared with data collected in the 2011 follow-up in seven communities. Follow-up mf data in 607 adults and 145 children were compared with baseline (300 adults and 58 children). Flies collected in 2011 were dissected, and poolscreen analysis was applied to ascertain transmission. Nodule prevalence in adults dropped from 81.7% to 11.0% (P < 0.0001), and mf prevalence dropped from 97.0% to 23.2% (P < 0.0001). In children, mf prevalence decreased from 79.3% to 14.1% (P < 0.0001). Parous and infection rates of 401 flies that were dissected were 52.9% and 1.5%, respectively, whereas the infective rate on flies examination by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was 1.92% and annual transmission potential was 26.9. Stopping ivermectin treatment may result in onchocerciasis recrudescence.

Fifteen years of annual mass treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin have not interrupted transmission in the west region of cameroon

We followed up the 1996 baseline parasitological and entomological studies on onchocerciasis transmission in eleven health districts in West Region, Cameroon. Annual mass ivermectin treatment had been provided for 15 years. Follow-up assessments which took place in 2005, 2006, and 2011 consisted of skin snips for microfilariae (mf) and palpation examinations for nodules. Follow-up Simulium vector dissections for larval infection rates were done from 2011 to 2012. mf prevalence in adults dropped from 68.7% to 11.4%, and nodule prevalence dropped from 65.9% to 12.1%. The decrease of mf prevalence in children from 29.2% to 8.9% was evidence that transmission was still continuing. mf rates in the follow-up assessments among adults and in children levelled out after a sharp reduction from baseline levels. Only three health districts out of 11 were close to interruption of transmission. Evidence of continuing transmission was also observed in two out of three fly collection sites that had infective rates of 0.19% and 0.18% and ATP of 70 (Foumbot) and 300 (Massangam), respectively. Therefore, halting of annual mass treatment with ivermectin cannot be done after 15 years as it might escalate the risk of transmission recrudescence.

A research agenda for helminth diseases of humans: modelling for control and elimination

Mathematical modelling of helminth infections has the potential to inform policy and guide research for the control and elimination of human helminthiases. However, this potential, unlike in other parasitic and infectious diseases, has yet to be realised. To place contemporary efforts in a historical context, a summary of the development of mathematical models for helminthiases is presented. These efforts are discussed according to the role that models can play in furthering our understanding of parasite population biology and transmission dynamics, and the effect on such dynamics of control interventions, as well as in enabling estimation of directly unobservable parameters, exploration of transmission breakpoints, and investigation of evolutionary outcomes of control. The Disease Reference Group on Helminth Infections (DRG4), established in 2009 by the Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), was given the mandate to review helminthiases research and identify research priorities and gaps. A research and development agenda for helminthiasis modelling is proposed based on identified gaps that need to be addressed for models to become useful decision tools that can support research and control operations effectively. This agenda includes the use of models to estimate the impact of large-scale interventions on infection incidence; the design of sampling protocols for the monitoring and evaluation of integrated control programmes; the modelling of co-infections; the investigation of the dynamical relationship between infection and morbidity indicators; the improvement of analytical methods for the quantification of anthelmintic efficacy and resistance; the determination of programme endpoints; the linking of dynamical helminth models with helminth geostatistical mapping; and the investigation of the impact of climate change on human helminthiases. It is concluded that modelling should be embedded in helminth research, and in the planning, evaluation, and surveillance of interventions from the outset. Modellers should be essential members of interdisciplinary teams, propitiating a continuous dialogue with end users and stakeholders to reflect public health needs in the terrain, discuss the scope and limitations of models, and update biological assumptions and model outputs regularly. It is highlighted that to reach these goals, a collaborative framework must be developed for the collation, annotation, and sharing of databases from large-scale anthelmintic control programmes, and that helminth modellers should join efforts to tackle key questions in helminth epidemiology and control through the sharing of such databases, and by using diverse, yet complementary, modelling approaches.

Control of onchocerciasis in Africa: threshold shifts, breakpoints and rules for elimination

Control of onchocerciasis in Africa is currently based on annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) which has been assumed to be not efficient enough to bring about elimination. However, elimination has recently been reported to have been achieved by CDTI alone in villages of Senegal and Mali, reviving debate on the eradicability of onchocerciasis in Africa. We investigate the eradicability of onchocerciasis by examining threshold shifts and breakpoints predicted by a stochastic transmission model that has been fitted extensively to data. We show that elimination based on CDTI relies on shifting the threshold biting rate to a level that is higher than the annual biting rate. Breakpoints become relevant in the context of when to stop CDTI. In order for the model to predict a good chance for CDTI to eliminate onchocerciasis, facilitating factors such as the macrofilaricidal effect of ivermectin must be assumed. A chart predicting the minimum efficacy of CDTI required for elimination, dependent on the annual biting rate, is provided. Generalisable recommendations into strategies for the elimination of onchocerciasis are derived, particularly referring to the roles of vectors, the residual infection rate under control, and a low-spreader problem originating from patients with low parasite burdens.

Outbreak properties of epidemic models: the roles of temporal forcing and stochasticity on pathogen invasion dynamics

Despite temporally forced transmission driving many infectious diseases, analytical insight into its role when combined with stochastic disease processes and non-linear transmission has received little attention. During disease outbreaks, however, the absence of saturation effects early on in well-mixed populations mean that epidemic models may be linearised and we can calculate outbreak properties, including the effects of temporal forcing on fade-out, disease emergence and system dynamics, via analysis of the associated master equations. The approach is illustrated for the unforced and forced SIR and SEIR epidemic models. We demonstrate that in unforced models, initial conditions (and any uncertainty therein) play a stronger role in driving outbreak properties than the basic reproduction number R0, while the same properties are highly sensitive to small amplitude temporal forcing, particularly when R0 is small. Although illustrated for the SIR and SEIR models, the master equation framework may be applied to more realistic models, although analytical intractability scales rapidly with increasing system dimensionality. One application of these methods is obtaining a better understanding of the rate at which vector-borne and waterborne infectious diseases invade new regions given variability in environmental drivers, a particularly important question when addressing potential shifts in the global distribution and intensity of infectious diseases under climate change.