Fifteen years change in acute management of hip fracture patients: 1-year mortality calls for improvements

Use of the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS) to Predict Long-Term Mortality in Patients With Hip Fracture in Japan: A Cohort Study Using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database

Hip fractures are common in patients of advanced age and are associated with excess mortality. Rapid and accurate prediction of the prognosis using information that can be easily obtained before surgery would be advantageous to clinical management. We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study using an 8.5-year Japanese claims database (April 2012-September 2020) to develop and validate a predictive model for long-term mortality after hip fracture. The study included 43,529 patients (34,499 [79.3%] women) aged ≥65 years with first-onset hip fracture. During the observation period, 43% of the patients died. Cox regression analysis identified the following prognostic predictors: sex, age, fracture site, nursing care certification, and several comorbidities (any malignancy, renal disease, congestive heart failure, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, metastatic solid tumor, and deficiency anemia). We then developed a scoring system called the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS); this system was established by scoring based on each hazard ratio and classifying the degree of mortality risk into four categories based on decision tree analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year mortality based on the SHiPS was 0.718 (95% CI, 0.706-0.729), 0.736 (95% CI, 0.728-0.745), and 0.758 (95% CI, 0.747-0.769), respectively, indicating good predictive performance of the SHiPS for as long as 5 years after fracture onset. Even when the SHiPS was individually applied to patients with or without surgery after fracture, the prediction performance by the AUC was >0.7. These results indicate that the SHiPS can predict long-term mortality using preoperative information regardless of whether surgery is performed after hip fracture.

Construction and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Acute Kidney Injury After Hip Fracture Surgery

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI), characterized by sudden impairment of kidney function, is an uncommon complication following hip fracture surgery that is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We constructed a nomogram to stratify patients according to risk of AKI after hip fracture surgery to guide clinicians in the implementation of timely interventions.

Methods

Patients who received hip fracture surgery from January 2015 to December 2021 were retrospectively identified and divided into a training set (n=448, surgery from January 2015 to December 2019) and a validation set (n=200, surgery from January 2020 to December 2021). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors for AKI after surgery in the training set. A nomogram was constructed based the risk factors for AKI, and was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The mean age was 82.0±6.22 years-old and the prevalence of post-surgical AKI was 13.3%. Age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, the preexistence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), cemented surgery and the decrease of hemoglobin on the first day after surgery were identified as independent risk factors of AKI after hip fracture surgery, and a predictive nomogram was established based on the multivariable model. The predictive nomogram had good discrimination ability (training set: AUC: 0.784, 95% CI: 0.720-0.848; validation set: AUC: 0.804, 95% CI: 0.704-0.903), and showed good validation ability and clinical usefulness based on a calibration plot and decision curve analysis.

Conclusion

A nomogram that incorporated five risk factors including age, ASA score, preexisting CKD, cemented surgery and the decrease of hemoglobin on the first day after surgery had good predictive performance and discrimination. Use of our results for early stratification and intervention has the potential to improve the outcomes of patients receiving hip fracture surgery. Future large, multicenter cohorts are needed to verify the model's performance.

Change in 1-year mortality after hip fracture surgery over the last decade in a European population

OBJECTIVE

There are scarce data on the mortality after hip fracture surgery for patients treated in the most recent years. The objective of this study was to analyze whether the overall initiatives introduced over the last decade for elderly patients with hip fractures had a positive impact on the 1-year mortality.

METHODS

Patients treated during 2010-2012 were compared with patients treated during 2018-2020 for all-cause 1-year mortality. Variables influencing mortality were collected based on the literature, including demographic, comorbidity, cognitive status, and preinjury physical function. Crude mortalities were compared between periods, as well as with the expected mortality in the general population adjusted for age, gender, and year of surgery using the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). A multivariate model was used to identify mortality risk factors.

RESULTS

591 patients older than 65 years were treated during 2010-2012 and 642 patients during 2018-2020. The mean age increased significantly between periods (78.9 vs. 82.6 years, respectively, p = 0.001) in both genders, together with an increase in comorbidity (p = 0.014). The in-hospital mortality risk had no significant difference between periods (2.5 vs. 2.0%, p = 0.339), but the 30-day mortality risk (8.3 vs. 5.5%, p = 0.031) and 1-year mortality risk (16.1 vs. 11.9%, p = 0.023) declined significantly. However, 1-year mortality in 2020 had an excess of 1.33 in SMR. Age older than 80 years, male gender, and Charlson comorbidity index > 2 were significant predictors of 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

The important evolution achieved in the last decade for the management of patients with hip fracture surgery has led to a significant decline in 1-year mortality, but the 1-year mortality remains significantly higher compared to the general population of similar age and gender.

The Impact of the Fascia Iliaca Block Beyond Perioperative Pain Control in Hip Fractures: A Retrospective Review

Background

Geriatric hip fractures are common injuries that are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Adequate pain control remains a challenge as the altered physiology in elderly patients makes use of traditional analgesics challenging. The use of regional anesthetics, specifically the fascia iliaca compartment block (FICB), in the perioperative period has been shown to decrease opioid use in this population. This study aimed to investigate the effect the FICB had on pain control, length of stay, readmissions, and complications in a 30-day postoperative period.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study comparing patients who sustained hip fractures; one cohort (110 patients) received a preoperative fascia iliaca block with continuous infusion (FICB), whereas the other cohort (110 patients) did not receive a block (NO-FICB). Both cohorts were from level II trauma centers. Data were collected between 2016 and 2019. Descriptive statistics was performed to describe and summarize the data. Bivariate analysis was performed using chi-square test, with 2 tailed P-values ≤ .05 were considered statistically significant.

Results

The FICB group had a lower length of stay (3.9 days vs 4.8 days; P < .001), and lower pain scores on post-operative days 2 and 3 (P = .019). There was no difference in time from admission to surgery (P = .112) or narcotic use between cohorts (P = .304). However, the FICB group was more likely to discharge to a skilled nursing facility (P=.002), and more likely to be readmitted within 30 days (P = .047). There were no differences in medical complications or mortality between the 2 groups.

Conclusions

The primary study endpoint, length of stay, was found to be significantly shorter in the patients who underwent the FICB vs the group who did not undergo the FICB. Pain scores on POD2 and POD3 were lower in patients who received a FICB. This study adds to the body of evidence that the FICB is an effective addition to a multimodal pain pathway.

Level of Evidence

Level III Evidence - Retrospective Cohort Study.

One-Year Outcomes Following Emergency Laparotomy: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomies (EL) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. To date, 30-day mortality has been predominately reported, and been the focus of various national emergency laparotomy audits. Only a few studies have reported on the long-term mortality associated with EL. The aim of this study was to review the one-year mortality following EL.

METHOD

A systematic review was conducted using PRISMA guidelines to identify studies published in the last 10 years reporting on long-term mortality associated with EL. The data abstracted included: patient demographics, pathology or type of operation performed for EL, post-operative mortality at 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, beyond 1-year and inpatient, functional outcomes and risk factors associated with mortality. A quality assessment of included studies was performed.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies reporting long-term outcomes associated with EL were identified, including the results of 48,023 patients. The indications and/or pathologies for ELs varied. The 30-day mortality after EL ranged from 5.3% to 21.8%, and the one-year mortality ranged from 15.1 to 47%. The mortality in the six studies focusing on elderly patients ranged from 30 to 47%.

CONCLUSION

The long-term mortality rate associated with EL is substantial. Further study is required to understand the 1-year mortality described in the studies and translate these findings for meaningful application into the clinical care of these patients.

Efficiently stratifying mid-term death risk in femoral fractures in the elderly: introducing the ASAgeCoGeCC Score

We evaluated mortality in a cohort of hip fracture patients and implemented a risk prediction score named ASAgeCoGeCC with excellent discrimination. It allowed to separate patients in 3 different risk groups with distinct mortality rates. Recognition of the heterogeneity of patients with femoral fractures may have relevant implications for their management.

INTRODUCTION

Usage of risk prediction models to estimate postoperative mortality risk for hip fracture patients represents a useful tool to give insight in the prognosis and assist in clinical decision-making. The aim of this study was to identify a predictive model able to determine the possible presence of distinct subgroups of hip fracture patients by risk classes in the mid-term.

METHODS

Three hundred twenty-three hip fracture patients were evaluated, and mortality rates at 30 days, 1, 2, and 4 years were calculated. A multivariate logistic regression analysis using mortality 4 years after fracture as a dependent variable found ASA score, age, cognitive status, gender, and Charlson Comorbidities Index (CCI) as significant risk factors. Using these items, a score named ASAgeCoGeCC was implemented and compared with CCI and Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

The area under the ROC curve for ASAgeCoGeCC was always greater than that of CCI and NHFS and ranged between 0.804 and 0.820 suggesting an excellent discrimination. The ASAgeCoGeCC logistic model showed also a good calibration. Patients were divided in 3 groups: a low risk group, an intermediate risk group with an odds ratio for 4-year mortality of 5.6 (95% CI 2.9-10.6), and a high risk group with an odds ratio 21.6 (95% CI 10.6-44).

CONCLUSION

The ASAgeCoGeCC Score is a predictive tool for mortality after hip fracture with good calibration and excellent discrimination properties. It is the first scoring system stratifying hip fracture patients' mortality at 4 years from fracture.