A novel hybrid fuzzy time series model for prediction of COVID-19 infected cases and deaths in India

Forecasting of coronavirus active cases by utilizing logistic growth model and fuzzy time series techniques

Coronavirus has long been considered a global epidemic. It caused the deaths of nearly 7.01 million individuals and caused an economic downturn. The number of verified coronavirus cases is increasing daily, putting the whole human race at danger and putting strain on medical experts to eradicate the disease as rapidly as possible. As a consequence, it is vital to predict the upcoming coronavirus positive patients in order to plan actions in the future. Furthermore, it has been discovered all across the globe that asymptomatic coronavirus patients play a significant part in the disease's transmission. This prompted us to incorporate similar examples in order to accurately forecast trends. A typical strategy for analysing the rate of pandemic infection is to use time-series forecasting technique. This would assist us in developing better decision support systems. To anticipate COVID-19 active cases for a few countries, we recommended a hybrid model utilizing a fuzzy time series (FTS) model mixed with a non-linear growth model. The coronavirus positive case outbreak has been evaluated for Italy, Brazil, India, Germany, Pakistan, and Myanmar through June 5, 2020 in phase-1, and January 15, 2022 in phase-2, and forecasts active cases for the next 26 and 14 days respectively. The proposed framework fitting effect outperforms individual logistic growth and the fuzzy time series techniques, with R-scores of 0.9992 in phase-1 and 0.9784 in phase-2. The proposed model provided in this article may be utilised to comprehend a country's epidemic pattern and assist the government in developing better effective interventions.

SVM-RFE enabled feature selection with DMN based centroid update model for incremental data clustering using COVID-19

This research introduces an efficacious model for incremental data clustering using Entropy weighted-Gradient Namib Beetle Mayfly Algorithm (NBMA). Here, feature selection is done based upon support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE), where the weight parameter is optimally fine-tuned using NBMA. After that, clustering is carried out utilizing entropy weighted power k-means clustering algorithm and weight is updated employing designed Gradient NBMA. Finally, incremental data clustering takes place in which centroid matching is carried out based on RV coefficient, whereas centroid is updated based on deep maxout network (DMN). Also, the result shows the better performance of the proposed method..

SIRSi-vaccine dynamical model for the Covid-19 pandemic

Covid-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, broke out as a pandemic during the beginning of 2020. The rapid spread of the disease prompted an unprecedented global response involving academic institutions, regulatory agencies, and industries. Vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions including social distancing have proven to be the most effective strategies to combat the pandemic. In this context, it is crucial to understand the dynamic behavior of the Covid-19 spread together with possible vaccination strategies. In this study, a susceptible-infected-removed-sick model with vaccination (SIRSi-vaccine) was proposed, accounting for the unreported yet infectious. The model considered the possibility of temporary immunity following infection or vaccination. Both situations contribute toward the spread of diseases. The transcritical bifurcation diagram of alternating and mutually exclusive stabilities for both disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined in the parameter space of vaccination rate and isolation index. The existing equilibrium conditions for both points were determined in terms of the epidemiological parameters of the model. The bifurcation diagram allowed us to estimate the maximum number of confirmed cases expected for each set of parameters. The model was fitted with data from São Paulo, the state capital of SP, Brazil, which describes the number of confirmed infected cases and the isolation index for the considered data window. Furthermore, simulation results demonstrate the possibility of periodic undamped oscillatory behavior of the susceptible population and the number of confirmed cases forced by the periodic small-amplitude oscillations in the isolation index. The main contributions of the proposed model are as follows: A minimum effort was required when vaccination was combined with social isolation, while additionally ensuring the existence of equilibrium points. The model could provide valuable information for policymakers, helping define disease prevention mitigation strategies that combine vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and the use of masks. In addition, the SIRSi-vaccine model facilitated the qualitative assessment of information regarding the unreported infected yet infectious cases, while considering temporary immunity, vaccination, and social isolation index.

Utilizing CNN-LSTM techniques for the enhancement of medical systems

COVID-19 is one of the most chronic and serious infections of recent years due to its worldwide spread. Determining who was genuinely affected when the disease spreads more widely is challenging. More than 60% of affected individuals report having a dry cough. In many recent studies, diagnostic models were developed using coughing and other breathing sounds. With the development of technology, body sounds are now collected using digital techniques for respiratory and cardiovascular tests. Early research on identifying COVID-19 utilizing speech and diagnosing signs yielded encouraging findings. The gathering of extensive, multi-group, airborne acoustical sound data is used in the developed framework to conduct an efficient assessment to test for COVID-19. An effective classification model is created to assess COVID-19 utilizing deep learning methods. The MIT-Covid-19 dataset is used as the input, and the Weiner filter is used for pre-processing. Following feature extraction done by Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients, the classification is performed using the CNN-LSTM approach. The study compared the performance of the developed framework with other techniques such as CNN, GRU, and LSTM. Study results revealed that CNN-LSTM outperformed other existing approaches by 97.7%.

Time-aware sport goods sale prediction for healthcare with privacy-preservation

Sports industry has been playing an important role in achieving good healthcare for public. However, with the advent of COVID-19, sports industry has been influenced significantly and the industry scale is decreased considerably. In this situation, how to accurately predict the sports industry scale in terms of production and consumption is becoming a practical and valuable task, because the whole world's economy is not growing stably and users' demand to sport goods is fluctuating sharply. However, three challenges are often existing in the sports industry scale prediction. First of all, there are so many kinds of sport goods that it is hard to quickly predict their future production or consumption scales accurately. Second, for a certain sport commodity, its production or consumption scale is often related to time especially in the COVID-19 environment. Third, sports industry scale data often contain some privacy, which probably disables data stakeholders to disclose their data. In view of these three challenges, a novel sports industry scale prediction approach (named SISP) is proposed for healthcare, which is basically according to time series analysis. Through SISP approach, we can quickly and accurately predict the future production or consumption scales of sport goods, in a privacy-aware way. At last, we validate the feasibility of the proposed SISP approach in this paper.

Improved seagull optimization algorithm of partition and XGBoost of prediction for fuzzy time series forecasting of COVID-19 daily confirmed

The establishment of fuzzy relations and the fuzzification of time series are the top priorities of the model for predicting fuzzy time series. A lot of literature studied these two aspects to ameliorate the capability of the forecasting model. In this paper, we proposed a new method(FTSOAX) to forecast fuzzy time series derived from the improved seagull optimization algorithm(ISOA) and XGBoost. For increasing the accurateness of the forecasting model in fuzzy time series, ISOA is applied to partition the domain of discourse to get more suitable intervals. We improved the seagull optimization algorithm(SOA) with the help of the Powell algorithm and a random curve action to make SOA have better convergence ability. Using XGBoost to forecast the change of fuzzy membership in order to overcome the disadvantage that fuzzy relation leads to low accuracy. We obtained daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in 7 countries as a dataset to demonstrate the performance of FTSOAX. The results show that FTSOAX is superior to other fuzzy forecasting models in the application of prediction of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases.

Knowledge-based and data-driven underground pressure forecasting based on graph structure learning

The pressure prediction technology whereby represents the rock pressure law in the excavation is fundamental to safety in production and industrial intelligentization. A growing number of researchers dedicate that machine learning is used to accurate prediction of underground pressure changes. However, the existing research which based on the classical machine learning rarely considers the cause between inducement of underground pressure and the underground pressure change. In this paper, we propose a novel Reinforced and Causal Graph Neural Network, namely RC-GNN, for the prediction task, to overcome the shortage of causal logic. First, we build a causal graph by considering internal relations between inducement and display of pressure and employ prior knowledge to erect the early and properties of the graph. Second, we construct the prediction network for underground pressure by graph convolutional networks and long short-term memory. Finally, we use the performance index of underground pressure prediction to design a reinforcement learning algorithm, which achieves optimization of the causal graph. Compared to six representative methods, experimental results with 18-60% increases in performance on the real prediction task.