A Risk Calculator for Bipolar Disorder in Youth: Improving the Odds for Personalized Prevention and Early Intervention?

Differentiation between bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder in adolescents: from clinical to biological biomarkers

Background

Mood disorders are very common among adolescents and include mainly bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD), with overlapping depressive symptoms that pose a significant challenge to realizing a rapid and accurate differential diagnosis in clinical practice. Misdiagnosis of BD as MDD can lead to inappropriate treatment and detrimental outcomes, including a poorer ultimate clinical and functional prognosis and even an increased risk of suicide. Therefore, it is of great significance for clinical management to identify clinical symptoms or features and biological markers that can accurately distinguish BD from MDD. With the aid of bibliometric analysis, we explore, visualize, and conclude the important directions of differential diagnostic studies of BD and MDD in adolescents.

Materials and methods

A literature search was performed for studies on differential diagnostic studies of BD and MDD among adolescents in the Web of Science Core Collection database. All studies considered for this article were published between 2004 and 2023. Bibliometric analysis and visualization were performed using the VOSviewer and CiteSpace software.

Results

In total, 148 publications were retrieved. The number of publications on differential diagnostic studies of BD and MDD among adolescents has been generally increasing since 2012, with the United States being an emerging hub with a growing influence in the field. Boris Birmaher is the top author in terms of the number of publications, and the Journal of Affective Disorders is the most published journal in the field. Co-occurrence analysis of keywords showed that clinical characteristics, genetic factors, and neuroimaging are current research hotspots. Ultimately, we comprehensively sorted out the current state of research in this area and proposed possible research directions in future.

Conclusion

This is the first-ever study of bibliometric and visual analyses of differential diagnostic studies of BD and MDD in adolescents to reveal the current research status and important directions in the field. Our research and analysis results might provide some practical sources for academic scholars and clinical practice.

Environmental Risk Factors for Bipolar Disorders and High-Risk States in Adolescence: A Systematic Review

Background and objectives: A deeper comprehension of the role that environmental risk factors play in the development of adolescent Bipolar Disorder (BD), as well as in the evolution of high-risk states for BD, may entangle further prevention and treatment advances. The present systematic review is aimed at critically summarizing evidence about the role that environmental risk factors play in the development of BD in adolescence and their interaction with BD high-risk states. Materials and Methods: MEDLINE/Pubmed, Scopus and Web of Science datasets were systematically searched until 4 September 2020. Original studies that reported information about the role of environmental risk factors in the development of BD during adolescence, or assessing their influence on the development of psychopathology in high-risk states for BD, were considered for inclusion. Two blind researchers performed title/abstract, full-text screening, and hand-screening of relevant references. The risk of bias was assessed by means of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Results: Fourteen studies were included in the review. Negative stressful life events, particularly sexual and physical abuse, but also emotional mistreatment, were associated with more severe psychopathology in adolescents with BD, as well as with higher risk for developing mood disorders in BD offspring. Similar findings were detected for familial environment-related features, such as parental rejection and low perceived care, while no univocal results were found when analyzing familial functioning. Conclusions: The present systematic review confirmed the relevant role that environmental risk factors, particularly negative stressful live events and family-related features, play in the development of BD psychopathology during adolescence. Future studies are expected to clarify possible further environmental factors that may be implicated in the development of BD during youth that may serve as target of prevention and early treatment strategies.

Early identification of bipolar disorder among young adults - a 22-year community birth cohort

OBJECTIVE

We set forth to build a prediction model of individuals who would develop bipolar disorder (BD) using machine learning techniques in a large birth cohort.

METHODS

A total of 3748 subjects were studied at birth, 11, 15, 18, and 22 years of age in a community birth cohort. We used the elastic net algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation to predict which individuals would develop BD at endpoint (22 years) at each follow-up visit before diagnosis (from birth up to 18 years). Afterward, we used the best model to calculate the subgroups of subjects at higher and lower risk of developing BD and analyzed the clinical differences among them.

RESULTS

A total of 107 (2.8%) individuals within the cohort presented with BD type I, 26 (0.6%) with BD type II, and 87 (2.3%) with BD not otherwise specified. Frequency of female individuals was 58.82% (n = 150) in the BD sample and 53.02% (n = 1868) among the unaffected population. The model with variables assessed at the 18-year follow-up visit achieved the best performance: AUC 0.82 (CI 0.75-0.88), balanced accuracy 0.75, sensitivity 0.72, and specificity 0.77. The most important variables to detect BD at the 18-year follow-up visit were suicide risk, generalized anxiety disorder, parental physical abuse, and financial problems. Additionally, the high-risk subgroup of BD showed a high frequency of drug use and depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a risk calculator for BD incorporating both demographic and clinical variables from a 22-year birth cohort. Our findings support previous studies in high-risk samples showing the significance of suicide risk and generalized anxiety disorder prior to the onset of BD, and highlight the role of social factors and adverse life events.

Risk Calculators in Bipolar Disorder: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Early recognition of bipolar disorder improves the prognosis and decreases the burden of the disease. However, there is a significant delay in diagnosis. Multiple risk factors for bipolar disorder have been identified and a population at high-risk for the disorder has been more precisely defined. These advances have allowed the development of risk calculators to predict individual risk of conversion to bipolar disorder. This review aims to identify the risk calculators for bipolar disorder and assess their clinical applicability.

METHODS

A systematic review of original studies on the development of risk calculators in bipolar disorder was performed. The studies' quality was evaluated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Form for Cohort Studies and according to recommendations of the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis Initiative.

RESULTS

Three studies met the inclusion criteria; one developed a risk calculator of conversion from major depressive episode to bipolar disorder; one of conversion to new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in offspring of parents with bipolar disorder; and the last one of conversion in youths with bipolar disorder not-otherwise-specified.

CONCLUSIONS

The calculators reviewed in this article present good discrimination power for bipolar disorder, although future replication and validation of the models is needed.

Translating Discoveries in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Genomics to an Outpatient Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Genomic discoveries should be investigated in generalizable child psychiatric samples in order to justify and inform studies that will evaluate their use for specific clinical purposes. In youth consecutively referred for neuropsychiatric evaluation, we examined 1) the convergent and discriminant validity of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in relation to DSM-based ADHD phenotypes; 2) the association of ADHD PRSs with phenotypes beyond ADHD that share its liability and have implications for outcome; and 3) the extent to which youth with high ADHD PRSs manifest a distinctive clinical profile.

METHOD

Participants were 433 youth, ages 7-18 years, from the Longitudinal Study of Genetic Influences on Cognition. We used logistic/linear regression and mixed effects models to examine associations with ADHD-related polygenic variation from the largest ADHD genome-wide association study to date. We replicated key findings in 5,140 adult patients from a local health system biobank.

RESULTS

Among referred youth, ADHD PRSs were associated with ADHD diagnoses, cross-diagnostic ADHD symptoms and academic impairment (odds ratios ∼1.4; R² values ∼2%-3%), as well as cross-diagnostic variation in aggression and working memory. In adults, ADHD PRSs were associated with ADHD and phenotypes beyond the condition that have public health implications. Finally, youth with a high ADHD polygenic burden showed a more severe clinical profile than youth with a low burden (β coefficients ∼.2).

CONCLUSION

Among child and adolescent outpatients, ADHD polygenic risk was associated with ADHD and related phenotypes as well as clinical severity. These results extend the scientific foundation for studies of ADHD polygenic risk in the clinical setting and highlight directions for further research.

Depression Preceding Diagnosis of Bipolar Disorder

This paper focuses on depression that precedes an onset of manifest bipolar disorder as early stage bipolar disorder. First, we review how to pragmatically identify the clinical characteristics of patients presenting with an episode of depression who subsequently go on to develop episodes of mania or hypomania. The existing literature shows a strong consensus: accurate identification of depression with early onset and recurrent course with multiple episodes, subthreshold hypomanic and/or mixed symptoms, and family history of bipolar disorder or completed suicide have been shown by multiple authors as signs pointing to bipolar diagnosis. This contrasts with relatively limited information available to guide management of such "pre-bipolar" (pre-declared bipolar) patients, especially those in the adult age range. Default assumption of unipolar depression at this stage carries significant risk. Antidepressants are still the most common pharmacological treatment used, but clinicians need to be aware of their potential harm. In some patients with unrecognized bipolar depression, antidepressants can not only produce switch to (hypo)mania, but also mixed symptoms, or worsening of depression with an increased risk of suicide. We review pragmatic management strategies in the literature beyond clinical guidelines that can be considered for this at-risk group encompassing the more recent child and adolescent literature. In the future, genetic research could make the early identification of bipolar depression easier by generating informative markers and polygenic risk scores.

Dr. Handen et al. Reply

We thank Dr. Higdon et al. for their interest in our article on metformin and children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and for providing information about the MOBILITY study (a Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI)-funded pragmatic clinical trial to examine the relative effectiveness of metformin plus healthy lifestyle instruction versus healthy lifestyle instruction alone).¹ In our October 2017 article,² we reported the results of a 16-week open-label extension study of a group of 61 children and adolescents with ASD prescribed second-generation antipsychotic medications (SGAs) who previously participated in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of metformin for management of weight gain. Although Higdon et al. indicated that our study results were encouraging, they believed that the conclusion of the accompanying JAACAP editorial³ stating metformin be considered as an adjunct treatment for any child who is overweight and prescribed SGAs was premature. Instead, they recommended that the results of their current pragmatic trial for children with bipolar disorder (which includes some children with ASD and intellectual disability) would better provide information on relevant moderators and mediators of metformin's effects. Such information would be of use to clinicians in determining whether to prescribe metformin to their patients or to focus on lifestyle changes (or a combination of the 2).