The Problem With Composite End Points in Cardiovascular Studies

Effects of Non-Face-to-Face Chronic Care Management on Service Utilization and Outcomes Among US Medicare Beneficiaries with Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) results in heavy economic and disease burdens in Louisiana. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has reimbursed non-face-to-face chronic care management (NFFCCM) for patients with two or more chronic conditions since 2015.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impacts of NFFCCM on healthcare utilization and health outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with T2DM and at least one additional chronic disease between 2014 and 2018.

EXPOSURES

At least one record of NFFCCM Current Procedural Terminology codes.

MAIN MEASURES

The health outcomes in the study included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), all-cause mortality, and heart failure. The monthly service utilization and continuity of care index for primary care were also included. The propensity score method was used to balance the baseline differences between the two groups. Weighted multivariate regression models were developed using propensity score weights to assess the impacts of NFFCCM on outcomes.

KEY RESULTS

During the 5 years of study period, 8415 patients among the 118,643 Medicare beneficiaries received at least one NFFCCM. Patients receiving any NFFCCM had reduced healthcare utilization compared with patients not receiving NFFCCM, including 0.012 (95% CI - 0.014 to - 0.011; p < 0.001) fewer monthly hospital admissions, 0.017 (95% CI - 0.019 to - 0.016; p < 0.001) fewer monthly ED visits, and 0.399 (95% CI 0.375 to 0.423; p < 0.001) more monthly outpatient encounters. Patients receiving NFFCCM services had lower MACE event rates of 7.4% (95% CI 7.1 to 7.8%; p < 0.001), all-cause mortality rate of 7.8% (95% CI 7.4 to 8.1%; p < 0.001), and heart failure rate of 0.3% (95% CI 0.2 to 0.5%; p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that reimbursement for NFFCCM was associated with the shifting high-cost utilization to lower-cost primary health care settings among patients with diabetes in Louisiana.

Applying Exercise Capacity and Physical Activity as Single vs Composite Endpoints for Trials of Cardiac Rehabilitation Interventions: Rationale, Use-case, and a Blueprint Method for Sample Size Calculation

OBJECTIVE

To conceptualize a composite primary endpoint for parallel-group RCTs of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) interventions and to explore its application and statistical efficiency.

DESIGN

We conducted a statistical exploration of sample size requirements. We combined exercise capacity and physical activity for the composite endpoint (CE), both being directly related to reduced premature mortality in patients with cardiac diseases. Based on smallest detectable and minimal clinically important changes (change in exercise capacity of 15 W and change in physical activity of 10 min/day), the CE combines 2 dichotomous endpoints (achieved/not achieved). To examine statistical efficiency, we compared sample size requirements based on the CE to single endpoints using data from 2 completed CR trials.

SETTING

Cardiac rehabilitation phase III.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients in cardiac rehabilitation.

INTERVENTIONS

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Exercise capacity (Pmax assessed by incremental cycle ergometry) and physical activity (daily minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity assessed by accelerometry).

RESULTS

Expecting, for example, a 10% between-group difference and improvement in the clinical outcome, the CE would increase sample size by up to 21% or 61%, depending on the dataset. When expecting a 10% difference and designing an intervention with the aim of non-deterioration, the CE would allow to reduce the sample size by up to 55% or 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

Trialists may consider the utility of the CE for future studies in exercise-based CR to reduce sample size requirements. However, perhaps surprisingly at first, the CE could also lead to an increased sample size needed, depending on the observed baseline proportions in the trial population and the aim of the intervention.

Comprehensive review of statin-intolerance and the practical application of Bempedoic Acid

Statin-intolerance (SI) has prevalence between 8.0 % and 10 %, and muscular complaints are the most common reason for discontinuation. Bempedoic acid (BA), an ATP citrate lyase inhibitor, decreases hepatic generation of cholesterol, upregulates low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor expression in the liver, and eventually clears circulating LDL-cholesterol from the blood. Multiple randomized clinical trials studying BA demonstrate a reduction in LDL levels by 17-28 % in SI. The CLEAR OUTCOME trial established significant cardiovascular benefits with BA. A dose of 180 mg/day of BA showed promising results. BA alone or in combination with ezetimibe is US Food and Drug Administration-approved for use in adults with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia and/or established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. BA reduced HbA1c by 0.12 % (p < 0.0001) in patients with diabetes. Adverse events of BA include myalgia (4.7 %), anemia (3.4 %), and increased aminotransferases (0.3 %). BA can cause up to four times higher risk of gout in those with a previous gout diagnosis or high serum uric acid levels. Reports of increased blood urea nitrogen and serum creatinine were noted. Current evidence does not demonstrate a reduction in deaths from cardiovascular causes. More studies that include a diverse population and patients with both high and low LDL levels should be conducted. We recommend that providers consider BA as an adjunct to statin therapy in patients with a maximally tolerated dosage to specifically target LDL levels.

Heterogeneity in the definition of major adverse kidney events: a scoping review

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with persistent renal dysfunction, the receipt of dialysis, dialysis dependence, and mortality. Accordingly, the concept of major adverse kidney events (MAKE) has been adopted as an endpoint for assessing the impact of AKI. However, applied criteria or observation periods for operationalizing MAKE appear to vary across studies. To evaluate this heterogeneity for MAKE evaluation, we performed a systematic scoping review of studies that employed MAKE as an AKI endpoint. Four major academic databases were searched, and we identified 122 studies with increasing numbers over time. We found marked heterogeneity in applied criteria and observation periods for MAKE across these studies, with some even lacking a description of criteria. Moreover, 13 different observation periods were employed, with 30 days and 90 days as the most common. Persistent renal dysfunction was evaluated by estimated glomerular filtration rate (34%) or serum creatinine concentration (48%); however, 37 different definitions for this component were employed in terms of parameters, cut-off criteria, and assessment periods. The definition for the dialysis component also showed significant heterogeneity regarding assessment periods and duration of dialysis requirement (chronic vs temporary). Finally, MAKE rates could vary by 7% [interquartile range: 1.7-16.7%] with different observation periods or by 36.4% with different dialysis component definitions. Our findings revealed marked heterogeneity in MAKE definitions, particularly regarding component assessment and observation periods. Dedicated discussion is needed to establish uniform and acceptable standards to operationalize MAKE in terms of selection and applied criteria of components, observation period, and reporting criteria for future trials on AKI and related conditions.

Comparison of Small Blood Vessel Diameter with Intravascular Ultrasound and Coronary Angiography for Guidance of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Major cardiovascular events (MACEs) are a cause of major mortality worldwide. The narrowing and blockage of coronary arteries with atherosclerotic plaques are diagnosed and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). During this procedure, coronary angiography (CAG) remains the most widely used guidance modality for the evaluation of the affected blood vessel. The measurement of the blood vessel diameter is an important factor to consider in order to decide if stent colocation is suitable for the intervention. In this regard, a small blood vessel (<2.75 mm) is majorly left without stent colocation; however, small vessel coronary artery disease (SvCAD) is a significant risk factor for the recurrence of MACEs, maybe due to the lack of a standardized treatment related to the diameter of the affected blood vessel; therefore, a more precise measurement is needed. The use of CAG for the measurement of the blood vessel diameter has some important limitations that can be improved with the use of newer techniques such as intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), although at higher costs, which might explain its underuse. To address differences in blood vessel diameter measurements and identify specific cases where IVUS might be of additional benefit for the patient, we conducted a retrospective study in patients who underwent PCI for MACEs with affection for at least one small blood vessel. We compared the measurements of the affected small blood vessels' diameter obtained by CAG and IVUS to identify cases of reclassification of the affected blood vessel; additionally, we underwent a multivariate analysis to identify risk factors associated with blood vessel reclassification. We included information from 48 patients with a mean ± SD age of 69.1 ± 11.9 years; 70.8% were men and 29.2% were women. The mean diameter with CAG and IVUS was 2.1 mm (95% CI 1.9-2.2), and 2.8 (2.8-3.0), respectively. The estimated difference was of 0.8 mm (95% CI 0.7-0.9). We found a significant positive low correlation in diameter measurements of small blood vessels obtained with CAG and IVUS (r = 0.1242 p = 0.014). In total, 37 (77%) patients had a reclassification of the affected blood vessel with IVUS. In 21 cases, the affected blood vessel changed from a small to a medium size (2.75-3.00 mm), and in 15 cases, the affected vessel changed from a small to a large size (<3.00 mm). The Bland-Altman plot was used to evaluate agreement in measurements with CAG and IVUS. The change in blood vessel classification with IVUs was important for the decision of intervention and stent collocation. The only variable associated with reclassification of blood vessels after adjustment in a multivariate analysis was T2D (type 2 diabetes) (p = 0 0.035). Our findings corroborate that blood vessels might appear smaller with CAG, especially in patients with T2D; therefore, at least in these cases, the use of IVUS is recommended over CAG.

Nomogram to Predict Outcomes After Staged Revascularization in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease

Objective

Approximately 50% of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients have multivessel coronary artery disease (MVD). The management strategy for these patients remains controversial. This study aimed to develop predictive models and nomogram of outcomes in STEMI patients with MVD for better identification and classification.

Methods

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to select the features most significantly associated with the outcomes. A Cox regression model was built using the selected variables. One nomogram was computed from each model, and individual risk scores were obtained by applying the nomograms to the cohort. After regrouping patients based on nomogram risk scores into low- and high-risk groups, we used the Kaplan-Meier method to perform survival analysis.

Results

The C-index of the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE)-free survival model was 0·68 (95% CI 0·62-0·74) and 0·65 [0·62-0·68]) at internal validation, and that of the overall survival model was 0·75 (95% CI 0·66-0·84) and (0·73 [0·65-0·81]). The predictions of both models correlated with the observed outcomes. Low-risk patients had significantly lower probabilities of 1-year or 3-year MACEs (4% versus 11%, P= 0.003; 7% versus 15%, P=0.01, respectively) and 1-year or 3-year all-cause death (1% versus 3%, P=0.048; 2% versus 7%, respectively, P=0.001) than high-risk patients.

Conclusion

Our nomograms can be used to predict STEMI and MVD outcomes in a simple and practical way for patients who undergo primary PCI for culprit vessels and staged PCI for non-culprit vessels.

Derivation of an Annualized Claims-Based Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event Estimator in Type 2 Diabetes

Background

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among adults with type 2 diabetes. Currently, available MACE prediction models have important limitations, including reliance on data that may not be routinely available, narrow focus on primary prevention, limited patient populations, and longtime horizons for risk prediction.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to derive and internally validate a claims-based prediction model for 1-year risk of MACE in type 2 diabetes.

Methods

Using medical and pharmacy claims for adults with type 2 diabetes enrolled in commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicare fee-for-service plans between 2014 and 2021, we derived and internally validated the annualized claims-based MACE estimator (ACME) model to predict the risk of MACE (nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and all-cause mortality). The Cox proportional hazards model was composed of 30 covariates, including patient age, sex, comorbidities, and medications.

Results

The study cohort comprised 6,623,526 adults with type 2 diabetes, mean age 68.1 ± 10.6 years, 49.8% women, and 73.0% Non-Hispanic White. ACME had a concordance index of 0.74 (validation index range: 0.739-0.741). The predicted 1-year risk of the study cohort ranged from 0.4% to 99.9%, with a median risk of 3.4% (IQR: 2.3%-6.5%).

Conclusions

ACME was derived in a large usual care population, relies on routinely available data, and estimates short-term MACE risk. It can support population risk stratification at the health system and payer levels, participant identification for decentralized clinical trials of cardiovascular disease, and risk-stratified observational studies using real-world data.

Performance of the EDACS-ADP incorporating highsensitivity troponin assay: Do components of major adverse cardiac events matter?

BACKGROUND

The accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) using the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score (EDACS-ADP), a tool to identify patients at low risk of a major adverse cardiac event (MACE) among patients presenting with chest pain to the emergency department, was developed using a contemporary troponin assay. This study was performed to validate and compare the performance of the EDACS-ADP incorporating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I between patients who had a 30-day MACE with and without unstable angina (MACE I and II, respectively).

METHODS

A single-center prospective observational study of adult patients presenting with chest pain suggestive of acute coronary syndrome was performed. The performance of EDACS-ADP in predicting MACE was assessed by calculating the sensitivity and negative predictive value.

RESULTS

Of the 1,304 patients prospectively enrolled, 399 (30.6%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 27.7%-33.8%) were considered low-risk using the EDACS-ADP. Among them, the rates of MACE I and II were 1.3% (5/399) and 1.0% (4/399), respectively. The EDACS-ADP showed sensitivities and negative predictive values of 98.8% (95% CI: 97.2%-99.6%) and 98.7% (95% CI: 97.0%-99.5%) for MACE I and 98.7% (95% CI: 96.8%-99.7%) and 99.0% (95% CI: 97.4%-99.6%) for MACE II, respectively.

CONCLUSION

EDACS-ADP could help identify patients as safe for early discharge. However, when unstable angina was added to the outcome, the 30-day MACE rate among the designated low-risk patients remained above the level acceptable for early discharge without further evaluation.

A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis on the Impact of Infertility on Men's General Health

CONTEXT

Male infertility has been associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide the most critical evidence on the association between infertility and the risk of incident comorbidities in males.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed according to the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines, and registered on PROSPERO. All published studies on infertile versus fertile men regarding overall mortality and risks of cancer, diabetes, and cardiovascular events were selected from a database search on PubMed, EMBASE, Google Scholar, and Cochrane. Forest plot and quasi-individual patient data meta-analysis were used for pooled analyses. A risk of bias was assessed using the ROBINS-E tool.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Overall, an increased risk of death from any cause was found for infertile men (hazard risk [HR] 1.37, [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.04-1.81], p = 0.027), and a 30-yr survival probability of 91.0% (95% CI 89.6-92.4%) was found for infertile versus 95.9% (95% CI 95.3-96.4%) for fertile men (p < 0.001). An increased risk emerged of being diagnosed with testis cancer (relative risk [RR] 1.86 [95% CI 1.41-2.45], p < 0.001), melanoma (RR 1.30 [95% CI 1.08-1.56], p = 0.006), and prostate cancer (RR 1.66 [95% CI 1.06-2.61], p < 0.001). As well, an increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.39 [95% CI 1.09-1.71], p = 0.008), with a 30-yr probability of diabetes of 25.0% (95% CI 21.1-26.9%) for infertile versus 17.1% (95% CI 16.1-18.1%) for fertile men (p < 0.001), and an increased risk of cardiovascular events (HR 1.20 [95% CI 1.00-1.44], p = 0.049), with a probability of major cardiovascular events of 13.9% (95% CI 13.3-14.6%) for fertile versus 15.7% (95% CI 14.3-16.9%) for infertile men (p = 0.008), emerged.

CONCLUSIONS

There is statistical evidence that a diagnosis of male infertility is associated with increased risks of death and incident comorbidities. Owing to the overall high risk of bias, results should be interpreted carefully.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Male fertility is a proxy of general men's health and as such should be seen as an opportunity to improve preventive strategies for overall men's health beyond the immediate reproductive goals.

Progression-free survival, disease-free survival and other composite end points in oncology: improved reporting is needed

Composite outcome measures such as progression-free survival and disease-free survival are increasingly used as surrogate end points in oncology research, frequently serving as the primary end point of pivotal trials that form the basis for FDA and EMA approvals. Such outcome measures combine two or more distinct events (for example, tumour (re)growth, new lesions and/or death) into a single, time-to-event end point. The use of a composite end point can increase the statistical power of a clinical trial and decrease the follow-up period required to demonstrate efficacy, thus lowering costs; however, these end points have a number of limitations. Composite outcomes are often vaguely defined, with definitions that vary greatly between studies, complicating comparisons of results across trials. Altering the makeup of events included in a composite outcome can alter study conclusions, including whether treatment effects are statistically significant. Moreover, the events included in a composite outcome often vary in clinical significance, reflect distinct biological pathways and/or are affected differently by treatment. Therefore, knowing the precise breakdown of the component events is essential to accurately interpret trial results and gauge the true benefit of an intervention. In oncology clinical trials, however, such information is rarely provided. In this Perspective, we emphasize this deficiency through a review of 50 studies with progression-free survival as an outcome published in five top oncology journals, discuss the advantages and challenges of using composite end points, and highlight the need for transparent reporting of the component events.

Risk of major adverse cardiovascular events associated with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in a population with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with and without type 2 diabetes: a UK database analysis using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the 12-month probabilities of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and non-cardiovascular death in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C).

DESIGN

A retrospective database analysis.

SETTING

UK primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were selected from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (Aurum) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient and Office of National Statistics mortality datasets. Patients with an ASCVD diagnosis between 01 January 2010 and 31 May 2018 and LDL-C ≥2.6 mmol/L were selected.

PRIMARY OUTCOMES

Primary outcomes were 12-month risk of (1) MACE (composite of revascularisation, unstable angina, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke and cardiovascular death) and (2) non-cardiovascular mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis estimated the probability of each outcome. A Cox proportional hazards model explored covariates associated with MACE.

RESULTS

Of 102 245 study patients, 16 501 (16.1%) had a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). 65.5% of those with and 49.9% of those without T2DM had a lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) 6 months prior to index diagnosis. Twelve-month probability of MACE was 7.9% for non-T2DM and 11.8% for T2DM. LDL-C was significantly associated with risk of MACE (HR=1.19 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.22) per 1 mmol/L). History of acute coronary syndrome, other coronary heart disease, stroke and T2DM significantly increased the risk of MACE. Ezetimibe (0.88 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.99)) and low-intensity statins (0.88 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.97)) were associated with reduced 12-month MACE risk.and low-intensity statins 0.88 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.97) CONCLUSION: We confirmed the association between elevated LDL-C and MACE. Many patients with ASCVD and elevated LDL-C were untreated with LLT. With the increasing demands on general practitioners, initiatives aimed at improving identification and treatment of at-risk patients within primary care should be considered.

Performance of Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Models in Korean Patients With New-Onset Rheumatoid Arthritis: National Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to compare the performance of established cardiovascular risk algorithms in Korean patients with new-onset rheumatoid arthritis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study identified patients newly diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis without a history of cardiovascular diseases between 2013 and 2019 using the National Health Insurance Service database. The cohort was followed up until 2020 for the development of the first major adverse cardiovascular event. General cardiovascular risk prediction algorithms, such as the systematic coronary risk evaluation model, the Korean risk prediction model for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases, the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled equations, and the Framingham Risk Score, were used. The discrimination and calibration of cardiovascular risk prediction models were evaluated. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. A total of 611 patients among 24 889 patients experienced a major adverse cardiovascular event during follow-up. The median 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases risk score was significantly higher in patients with major adverse cardiovascular events than those without. The C-statistics of risk algorithms ranged between 0.72 and 0.74. Compared with the low-risk group, the actual risk of developing major adverse cardiovascular events increased significantly in the intermediate- and high-risk groups for all algorithms. However, the risk predictions calculated from all algorithms overestimated the observed cardiovascular risk in the middle to high deciles, and only the systematic coronary risk evaluation algorithm showed comparable observed and predicted event rates in the low-intermediate deciles with the highest sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

The systematic coronary risk evaluation model algorithm and the general risk prediction models discriminated patients with rheumatoid arthritis appropriately. However, overestimation should be considered when applying the cardiovascular risk prediction model in Korean patients.

Clinical outcome prediction using observational supervision with electronic health records and audit logs

OBJECTIVE

Audit logs in electronic health record (EHR) systems capture interactions of providers with clinical data. We determine if machine learning (ML) models trained using audit logs in conjunction with clinical data ("observational supervision") outperform ML models trained using clinical data alone in clinical outcome prediction tasks, and whether they are more robust to temporal distribution shifts in the data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using clinical and audit log data from Stanford Healthcare, we trained and evaluated various ML models including logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM) classifiers, neural networks, random forests, and gradient boosted machines (GBMs) on clinical EHR data, with and without audit logs for two clinical outcome prediction tasks: major adverse kidney events within 120 days of ICU admission (MAKE-120) in acute kidney injury (AKI) patients and 30-day readmission in acute stroke patients. We further tested the best performing models using patient data acquired during different time-intervals to evaluate the impact of temporal distribution shifts on model performance.

RESULTS

Performance generally improved for all models when trained with clinical EHR data and audit log data compared with those trained with only clinical EHR data, with GBMs tending to have the overall best performance. GBMs trained with clinical EHR data and audit logs outperformed GBMs trained without audit logs in both clinical outcome prediction tasks: AUROC 0.88 (95% CI: 0.85-0.91) vs. 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77-0.81), respectively, for MAKE-120 prediction in AKI patients, and AUROC 0.74 (95% CI: 0.71-0.77) vs. 0.63 (95% CI: 0.62-0.64), respectively, for 30-day readmission prediction in acute stroke patients. The performance of GBM models trained using audit log and clinical data degraded less in later time-intervals than models trained using only clinical data.

CONCLUSION

Observational supervision with audit logs improved the performance of ML models trained to predict important clinical outcomes in patients with AKI and acute stroke, and improved robustness to temporal distribution shifts.

Cardiovascular risk of Janus kinase inhibitors compared with biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis without underlying cardiovascular diseases: a nationwide cohort study

Objectives: Despite the ethnic differences in cardiovascular (CV) risks and recent increase in the prescription of Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors, limited evidence is available for their CV outcomes in Asian patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We aimed to compare the major adverse CV events (MACEs) of JAK inhibitors to those of biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) in Korean patients with RA without baseline CV disease (CVD). Methods: In a nationwide retrospective cohort study, patients newly diagnosed with RA without a history of CVD between 2013 and 2018 were identified using the National Health Insurance Service database. The cohort was followed up until the end of 2019 for the development of MACEs. Hazard ratios (HRs) for MACEs such as myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, or all-cause death, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regression in a propensity score-matched cohort. Results: In total, 4,230 matched patients with RA were included (846 JAK inhibitor users and 3,384 bDMARD users). The crude incidence rate (95% confidence intervals, CI) per 100 patient-years for MACEs was 0.83 (0.31-1.81) and 0.74 (0.53-1.02) in the JAK inhibitor and bDMARD groups, respectively. The risk of MACEs was not significantly different between JAK inhibitor and bDMARD users with an adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.28 (0.53-3.11). There were no significant differences in the risk of MACEs between JAK inhibitors and bDMARDs in each subgroup according to the types of bDMARDs, age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index score, and comorbidities. Conclusion: Compared to bDMARDs, JAK inhibitors were not associated with the occurrence of MACEs in Korean patients with RA without a history of CVD.

Cell salvage for minimising perioperative allogeneic blood transfusion in adults undergoing elective surgery

BACKGROUND

Concerns regarding the safety and availability of transfused donor blood have prompted research into a range of techniques to minimise allogeneic transfusion requirements. Cell salvage (CS) describes the recovery of blood from the surgical field, either during or after surgery, for reinfusion back to the patient.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effectiveness of CS in minimising perioperative allogeneic red blood cell transfusion and on other clinical outcomes in adults undergoing elective or non-urgent surgery.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, three other databases and two clinical trials registers for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews from 2009 (date of previous search) to 19 January 2023, without restrictions on language or publication status.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included RCTs assessing the use of CS compared to no CS in adults (participants aged 18 or over, or using the study's definition of adult) undergoing elective (non-urgent) surgery only.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 106 RCTs, incorporating data from 14,528 participants, reported in studies conducted in 24 countries. Results were published between 1978 and 2021. We analysed all data according to a single comparison: CS versus no CS. We separated analyses by type of surgery. The certainty of the evidence varied from very low certainty to high certainty. Reasons for downgrading the certainty included imprecision (small sample sizes below the optimal information size required to detect a difference, and wide confidence intervals), inconsistency (high statistical heterogeneity), and risk of bias (high risk from domains including sequence generation, blinding, and baseline imbalances). Aggregate analysis (all surgeries combined: primary outcome only) Very low-certainty evidence means we are uncertain if there is a reduction in the risk of allogeneic transfusion with CS (risk ratio (RR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 0.72; 82 RCTs, 12,520 participants). Cancer: 2 RCTs (79 participants) Very low-certainty evidence means we are uncertain whether there is a difference for mortality, blood loss, infection, or deep vein thrombosis (DVT). There were no analysable data reported for the remaining outcomes. Cardiovascular (vascular): 6 RCTs (384 participants) Very low- to low-certainty evidence means we are uncertain whether there is a difference for most outcomes. No data were reported for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Cardiovascular (no bypass): 6 RCTs (372 participants) Moderate-certainty evidence suggests there is probably a reduction in risk of allogeneic transfusion with CS (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.97; 3 RCTs, 169 participants). Very low- to low-certainty evidence means we are uncertain whether there is a difference for volume transfused, blood loss, mortality, re-operation for bleeding, infection, wound complication, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and hospital length of stay (LOS). There were no analysable data reported for thrombosis, DVT, pulmonary embolism (PE), and MACE. Cardiovascular (with bypass): 29 RCTs (2936 participants) Low-certainty evidence suggests there may be a reduction in the risk of allogeneic transfusion with CS, and suggests there may be no difference in risk of infection and hospital LOS. Very low- to moderate-certainty evidence means we are uncertain whether there is a reduction in volume transfused because of CS, or if there is any difference for mortality, blood loss, re-operation for bleeding, wound complication, thrombosis, DVT, PE, MACE, and MI, and probably no difference in risk of stroke. Obstetrics: 1 RCT (1356 participants) High-certainty evidence shows there is no difference between groups for mean volume of allogeneic blood transfused (mean difference (MD) -0.02 units, 95% CI -0.08 to 0.04; 1 RCT, 1349 participants). Low-certainty evidence suggests there may be no difference for risk of allogeneic transfusion. There were no analysable data reported for the remaining outcomes. Orthopaedic (hip only): 17 RCTs (2055 participants) Very low-certainty evidence means we are uncertain if CS reduces the risk of allogeneic transfusion, and the volume transfused, or if there is any difference between groups for mortality, blood loss, re-operation for bleeding, infection, wound complication, prosthetic joint infection (PJI), thrombosis, DVT, PE, stroke, and hospital LOS. There were no analysable data reported for MACE and MI. Orthopaedic (knee only): 26 RCTs (2568 participants) Very low- to low-certainty evidence means we are uncertain if CS reduces the risk of allogeneic transfusion, and the volume transfused, and whether there is a difference for blood loss, re-operation for bleeding, infection, wound complication, PJI, DVT, PE, MI, MACE, stroke, and hospital LOS. There were no analysable data reported for mortality and thrombosis. Orthopaedic (spine only): 6 RCTs (404 participants) Moderate-certainty evidence suggests there is probably a reduction in the need for allogeneic transfusion with CS (RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.63; 3 RCTs, 194 participants). Very low- to moderate-certainty evidence suggests there may be no difference for volume transfused, blood loss, infection, wound complication, and PE. There were no analysable data reported for mortality, re-operation for bleeding, PJI, thrombosis, DVT, MACE, MI, stroke, and hospital LOS. Orthopaedic (mixed): 14 RCTs (4374 participants) Very low- to low-certainty evidence means we are uncertain if there is a reduction in the need for allogeneic transfusion with CS, or if there is any difference between groups for volume transfused, mortality, blood loss, infection, wound complication, PJI, thrombosis, DVT, MI, and hospital LOS. There were no analysable data reported for re-operation for bleeding, MACE, and stroke.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In some types of elective surgery, cell salvage may reduce the need for and volume of allogeneic transfusion, alongside evidence of no difference in adverse events, when compared to no cell salvage. Further research is required to establish why other surgeries show no benefit from CS, through further analysis of the current evidence. More large RCTs in under-reported specialities are needed to expand the evidence base for exploring the impact of CS.

Long-term Outcomes After Laparoscopic, Robotic, and Open Pancreatoduodenectomy for Distal Cholangiocarcinoma: An International Propensity Score-matched Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare surgical and oncological outcomes after minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy (MIPD) versus open pancreatoduodenectomy (OPD) for distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA).

BACKGROUND

A dCCA might be a good indication for MIPD, as it is often diagnosed as primary resectable disease. However, multicenter series on MIPD for dCCA are lacking.

METHODS

This is an international multicenter propensity score-matched cohort study including patients after MIPD or OPD for dCCA in 8 centers from 5 countries (2010-2021). Primary outcomes included overall survival (OS) and disease-free interval (DFI). Secondary outcomes included perioperative and postoperative complications and predictors for OS or DFI. Subgroup analyses included robotic pancreatoduodenectomy (RPD) and laparoscopic pancreatoduodenectomy (LPD).

RESULTS

Overall, 478 patients after pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA were included of which 97 after MIPD (37 RPD, 60 LPD) and 381 after OPD. MIPD was associated with less blood loss (300 vs 420 mL, P =0.025), longer operation time (453 vs 340 min; P <0.001), and less surgical site infections (7.8% vs 19.3%; P =0.042) compared with OPD. The median OS (30 vs 25 mo) and DFI (29 vs 18) for MIPD did not differ significantly between MIPD and OPD. Tumor stage (Hazard ratio: 2.939, P <0.001) and administration of adjuvant chemotherapy (Hazard ratio: 0.640, P =0.033) were individual predictors for OS. RPD was associated with a higher lymph node yield (18.0 vs 13.5; P =0.008) and less major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo 3b-5; 8.1% vs 32.1%; P =0.005) compared with LPD.

DISCUSSION

Both surgical and oncological outcomes of MIPD for dCCA are acceptable as compared with OPD. Surgical outcomes seem to favor RPD as compared with LPD but more data are needed. Randomized controlled trials should be performed to confirm these findings.

Trials using composite outcomes neglect the presence of competing risks: a methodological survey of cardiovascular studies

OBJECTIVE

To determine how frequently competing risks were accounted for in recently published cardiovascular disease (CVD) trials with composite end points.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a methodological survey of CVD trials that used composite end points and published from January 1 to September 27, 2021. The following databases were searched: PubMed, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and Web of Science. Eligible studies were categorized according to whether they mentioned a competing risk analysis plan. If yes, whether a competing risk analysis was proposed as the primary or sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 136 included studies, only 14 (10.3%) conducted a competing risk analysis and reported the corresponding results. Seven (50%) of them conducted a competing risk analysis as their primary analysis, whereas the other seven (50%) as a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of their findings. The most commonly used competing risk analysis methods were the subdistribution hazard model (nine studies), followed by the cause-specific hazard model (four studies) and restricted mean time lost method (one study). None of the studies accounted for competing risks in their sample size calculations.

CONCLUSION

Our findings underscore the pressing need for and importance of applying appropriate competing risk analysis in this field to disseminate clinically meaningful and unbiased results.

Efficacy and safety of inclisiran in stroke or cerebrovascular disease prevention: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Aims: As the impact of inclisiran in stroke prevention in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients or those at high risk of ASCVD is still unclear, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCT) to quantify the effectiveness of inclisiran in stroke prevention in these patients. Methods: Literature research was conducted in four electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, CENTRAL) and two clinical trials registers (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO ICTRP) from the inception of the study to 17 October 2022, and was updated by the end of the study on 5 January 2023. Two authors independently screened the studies, extracted the data, and assessed the bias. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials (RoB 2). The intervention effect was estimated by calculating risk ratio (RR), weighted mean difference (WMD), and 95% confidence interval (CI) with R 4.0.5. Sensitivity analysis by changing meta-analysis model was also performed to test the robustness of the pooled results. If this was not possible, a descriptive analysis was conducted. Results: Four RCTs (n = 3,713 patients) were rated as high-risk bias. Meta-analysis of three RCTs (ORION-9, ORION-10, and ORION-11) showed that inclisiran reduced myocardial infarction (MI) risk by 32% (RR = 0.68, 95%CI = 0.48-0.96) but did not reduce stroke (RR = 0.92, 95%CI = 0.54-1.58) and major cardiovascular events (MACE) (RR = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.65-1.02) risk. Sensitivity analysis results were stable. Safety was similar to the placebo group but had frequent injection-site reactions (RR = 6.56, 95%CI = 3.83-11.25), which were predominantly mild or moderate. A descriptive analysis of one RCT (ORION-5) was conducted due to different study designs, and suggested that inclisiran might be given semiannually from the beginning. Conclusion: Inclisiran is not beneficial for stroke or MACE prevention in ASCVD or patients at high risk of ASCVD but is associated with the reduction of MI. Given the limited number and quality of the available studies and the lack of a standardized definition for cardiovascular events, further studies are essential for confirming the results.

Time and event-specific deep learning for personalized risk assessment after cardiac perfusion imaging

Standard clinical interpretation of myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) has proven prognostic value for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). However, personalizing predictions to a specific event type and time interval is more challenging. We demonstrate an explainable deep learning model that predicts the time-specific risk separately for all-cause death, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and revascularization directly from MPI and 15 clinical features. We train and test the model internally using 10-fold hold-out cross-validation (n = 20,418) and externally validate it in three separate sites (n = 13,988) with MACE follow-ups for a median of 3.1 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.6, 3.6). We evaluate the model using the cumulative dynamic area under receiver operating curve (cAUC). The best model performance in the external cohort is observed for short-term prediction - in the first six months after the scan, mean cAUC for ACS and all-cause death reaches 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75, 0.77) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.79), respectively. The model outperforms conventional perfusion abnormality measures at all time points for the prediction of death in both internal and external validations, with improvement increasing gradually over time. Individualized patient explanations are visualized using waterfall plots, which highlight the contribution degree and direction for each feature. This approach allows the derivation of individual event probability as a function of time as well as patient- and event-specific risk explanations that may help draw attention to modifiable risk factors. Such a method could help present post-scan risk assessments to the patient and foster shared decision-making.

Long-term Outcomes for Drug-eluting Balloons versus Drug-eluting Stents in the Treatment of Small Vessel Coronary Artery Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: This systematic review and meta-analysis compares long-term outcomes follow-up data comparing drug-eluting balloons (DEBs) and drug-eluting stents (DESs) in interventional treatment of small coronary artery disease (<3 mm). Methods: A systematic review was undertaken along with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The primary outcome was 1-3-year performance of DEB versus DES in major adverse cardiac events. Secondary outcomes include all-cause mortality, MI, cardiac death, vessel thrombosis, major bleeding, target vessel revascularisation and target lesion revascularisation. Two independent reviewers extracted data. All outcomes used the Mantel-Haenszel and random effects models. ORs are presented with a 95% CI. Results: Of 4,661 articles, four randomised control trials were included (1,414 patients). DEBs demonstrated reduced rates of non-fatal MI at 1 year (OR 0.44; 95% CI [0.2-0.94]), and BASKET-SMALL 2 reported a significant reduction in 2-year bleeding rates (OR 0.3; 95% CI [0.1-0.91]). There was no significant difference in all other outcomes. Conclusion: Long-term follow-up of DEB and DES use in small coronary arteries demonstrates DEBs be comparable with DESs in all outcomes at 1, 2 and 3 years of follow-up. A significant reduction was found in rates of non-fatal MI at 1 year in the DEB arm, and a reduction in major bleeding episodes at 2 years in the BASKET-SMALL 2 trial. These data highlight the potential long-term utility of novel DEBs in small coronary artery disease revascularisation.

Review article: Risk of cardiovascular events in patients with inflammatory bowel disease receiving small molecule drugs

BACKGROUND

In the context of an ageing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) population, cardiovascular comorbidities become particularly relevant. Novel small molecule drugs (SMDs) for the treatment of moderate-to-severe IBD have been recently approved, including Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitors and sphingosine-1-phosphate receptor (S1P) modulators. Data from rheumatoid arthritis population have raised concerns about the risk of cardiovascular events with the use of tofacitinib, which was extrapolated to other immune-mediated diseases and other JAK inhibitors. S1P receptor modulation has been associated with potential cardiovascular events, especially bradycardia and cardiac conduction abnormalities.

AIM

To review the incidence of cardiovascular events with the use of SMDs in patients with IBD and to provide practical recommendations on mitigation strategies.

METHODS

Published literature was reviewed; recommendations were synthesised by experts in both cardiovascular diseases and IBD.

RESULTS

Evidence from the IBD population does not indicate a higher risk of cardiovascular events with tofacitinib and other JAK inhibitors. The risk is higher in patients with intermediate to high cardiovascular risk. S1P modulators may be associated with a dose-dependent, first-dose effect, transient risk of conduction abnormalities (bradycardia and AV block). Screening and monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors should be done in all patients with IBD. Risk stratification for cardiovascular disease should be performed before starting treatment with SMDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Available evidence of both JAK inhibitors and S1P modulators indicates a reassuring safety profile of SMDs from the cardiovascular perspective in the overall IBD population. Efforts should be made to identify patients with IBD at a higher risk of cardiovascular events.

Electrocardiogram interpretation during nurse triage improves the performance of the triage system in patients with cardiovascular symptoms - A prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

An immediate ECG on arrival of a patient with cardiovascular symptoms in the ED may anticipate the need for life-saving intervention. The aim was to evaluate whether ECG interpretation during nurse triage can improve triage system performance in patients with cardiovascular symptoms.

METHODS

All patients who required an assessment for cardiovascular symptoms were considered for this observational study. During triage assessment, the nurses assessed the patient's level of urgency applying the MTS, then again after this evaluation (confirming or modifying the level of urgency based on personal clinical experience) and after interpretation of the patient's ECG. The main study outcome was the diagnosis of an acute cardiovascular event.

RESULTS

Of the 1211 patients in the study, 10.5% presented the main study outcome. ECG interpretation in triage exhibited a nurse-physician agreement of 92.9% (p<0.001). increased patient priority in 7.5% of cases and reduced it in 39.6%. The discriminatory ability of the triage system had an area under the ROC of 0.712and 0.845 after ECG interpretation. ECG interpretation improved the baseline assessment of priority, with an NRI of 60.1% (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

ECG interpretation in triage can be a simple and safe tool that improves the assessment of patient priority.

Days alive and out of hospital at 30 days and outcomes of off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting

Days alive and out of hospital (DAOH) is a simple estimator based on the number of days not in hospital within a defined period. In cases of mortality within the period, DAOH is regarded as zero. It has not been validated solely in off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB). This study aimed to demonstrate a correlation between DAOH and outcome of OPCAB. We identified 2211 OPCAB performed from January 2010 to August 2016. We calculated DAOH at 30 and 60 days. We generated a receiver-operating curve and compared outcomes. The median duration of hospital stay after OPCAB was 6 days. The median DAOH values at 30 and 60 days were 24 and 54 days. The estimated thresholds for 3-year mortality for DAOH at 30 and 60 days were 20 and 50 days. Three-year mortality was higher for short DAOH (1.2% vs. 5.7% and 1.1% vs. 5.6% DAOH at 30 and 60 days). After adjustment, the short DAOH 30 group showed significantly higher mortality during 3-year follow-up (hazard ratio 3.07; 95% confidence interval 1.45-6.52; p = 0.004). DAOH at 30 days after OPCAB showed a correlation with 3-year outcomes. DAOH 30 might be a reliable long-term outcome measure that can be obtained within 30 days after surgery.

Cost Change of Elective Percutaneous Coronary Artery Intervention for Chronic Coronary Syndrome in Japan From 2010 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Because of revisions to insurance reimbursement costs, medical fees have changed for investigations and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) treatment of chronic coronary syndrome (CCS). In this retrospective study, we investigated these changes and their effects on mortality and cardiovascular events.Methods and Results: We included 1,483 patients who underwent elective PCI for CCS between April 2010 and September 2019. The primary outcomes were changes in PCI procedure fees and all included hospitalization fees due to the biennial revisions of reimbursement costs across 5 time periods (~2 years each). Secondary outcomes were rates of survival and freedom from major adverse cerebral and cardiovascular events (MACCE) in each time period. Patient characteristics were generally unchanged over the study period; however, treatment procedures changed significantly, with changes in the approach site (from transfemoral to transradial access; P<0.0001) and final device (from bare-metal stents to drug-eluting stents; P<0.0001), and an increase in the use of imaging modalities (P<0.0001). Medical fee parameters (primary outcomes) decreased significantly from 2010 to 2019 (P<0.001): PCI procedure fees decreased by 25%, whereas all included hospitalization fees decreased by 20%. There were no significant differences in survival or freedom-from-MACCE rates between periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Because of revisions to reimbursement prices, there were rapid and significant decreases in PCI procedure and hospitalization fees for CCS. These changes had no effect on mortality or cardiovascular events.

Sample size requirement in trials that use the composite endpoint major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE): new insights

BACKGROUND

The real impact of the degree of association (DoA) between endpoint components of a composite endpoint (CE) on sample size requirement (SSR) has not been explored. We estimate the impact of the DoA between death and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on SSR of trials using use the CE of major adverse cardiac events (MACE).

METHODS

A systematic review and quantitative synthesis of trials that include MACE as the primary outcome through search strategies in MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We limited to articles published in journals indexed in the first quartile of the Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems category (Journal Citation Reports, 2015-2020). The authors were contacted to estimate the DoA between death and AMI using joint probability and correlation. We analyzed the SSR variation using the DoA estimated from RCTs.

RESULTS

Sixty-three of 134 publications that reported event rates and the therapy effect in all component endpoints were included in the quantitative synthesis. The most frequent combination was death, AMI, and revascularization (n = 20; 31.8%). The correlation between death and AMI, estimated from 5 trials¸ oscillated between - 0.02 and 0.31. SSR varied from 14,602 in the scenario with the strongest correlation to 12,259 in the scenario with the weakest correlation; the relative impact was 16%.

CONCLUSIONS

The DoA between death and AMI is highly variable and may lead to a considerable SSR variation in a trial including MACE.

Association of Time to Surgery After COVID-19 Infection With Risk of Postoperative Cardiovascular Morbidity

IMPORTANCE

The time interval between COVID-19 infection and surgery is a potentially modifiable but understudied risk factor for postoperative complications.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between time to surgery after COVID-19 diagnosis and the risk of a composite of major postoperative cardiovascular morbidity events within 30 days of surgery.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted among 3997 adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with a previous diagnosis of COVID-19, as documented by a positive polymerase chain reaction test result, who were undergoing surgery from January 1, 2020, to December 6, 2021. Data were obtained through Structured Query Language access of an existing perioperative data warehouse. Statistical analysis was performed March 29, 2022.

EXPOSURE

The time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and surgery.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the composite occurrence of major cardiovascular comorbidity, defined as deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, cerebrovascular accident, myocardial injury, acute kidney injury, and death within 30 days after surgery, using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 3997 patients (2223 [55.6%]; median age, 51.3 years [IQR, 35.1-64.4 years]; 667 [16.7%] African American or Black; 2990 [74.8%] White; and 340 [8.5%] other race) were included in the study. The median time from COVID-19 diagnosis to surgery was 98 days (IQR, 30-225 days). Major postoperative adverse cardiovascular events were identified in 485 patients (12.1%). Increased time from COVID-19 diagnosis to surgery was associated with a decreased rate of the composite outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 0.99 [per 10 days]; 95% CI, 0.98-1.00; P = .006). This trend persisted for the 1552 patients who had received at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine (adjusted odds ratio, 0.98 [per 10 days]; 95% CI, 0.97-1.00; P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study suggests that increased time from COVID-19 diagnosis to surgery was associated with a decreased odds of experiencing major postoperative cardiovascular morbidity. This information should be used to better inform risk-benefit discussions concerning optimal surgical timing and perioperative outcomes for patients with a history of COVID-19 infection.

Infarctus du myocarde, accident vasculaire cérébral et psoriasis: une revue systématique des études observationnelles

Patients with psoriasis can have higher rates of hypertension, diabetes mellitus 2, and dyslipidemia. This study aimed to assess the association between psoriasis, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke. A systematic review was carried out using PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, and LILACS databases searching for observational studies that assessed stroke and/or MI in patients diagnosed with psoriasis vulgaris compared to non-psoriatic patients. A total of 649 articles were identified but only 15 were included in the study. Although there were studies that have observed a significant positive association between psoriasis and MI or stroke, an almost equal number of studies showed no statistically significant association. The relationship between psoriasis and ischemic cardiovascular events is still controversial and it is difficult to establish psoriasis as the etiology of these events.

Acute coronary syndrome risk prediction based on gradient boosted tree feature selection and recursive feature elimination: A dataset-specific modeling study

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a serious cardiovascular disease that can lead to cardiac arrest if not diagnosed promptly. However, in the actual diagnosis and treatment of ACS, there will be a large number of redundant related features that interfere with the judgment of professionals. Further, existing methods have difficulty identifying high-quality ACS features from these data, and the interpretability work is insufficient. In response to this problem, this paper uses a hybrid feature selection method based on gradient boosting trees and recursive feature elimination with cross-validation (RFECV) to reduce ACS feature redundancy and uses interpretable feature learning for feature selection to retain the most discriminative features. While reducing the feature set search space, this method can balance model simplicity and learning performance to select the best feature subset. We leverage the interpretability of gradient boosting trees to aid in understanding key features of ACS, linking the eigenvalue meaning of instances to model risk predictions to provide interpretability for the classifier. The data set used in this paper is patient records after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in a tertiary hospital in Fujian Province, China from 2016 to 2021. In this paper, we experimentally explored the impact of our method on ACS risk prediction. We extracted 25 key variables from 430 complex ACS medical features, with a feature reduction rate of 94.19%, and identified 5 key ACS factors. Compared with different baseline methods (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Multilayer Perceptron, and 1D Convolutional Networks), the results show that our method achieves the highest Accuracy of 98.8%.

Combinational Growth Factor and Gas Delivery for Thrombosis Prevention

Cardiovascular stents enable the rapid re-endothelialization of endothelial cells (ECs), and the constant suppression of smooth muscle cell (SMC) proliferation has been proved to effectively prevent thrombosis. However, the development and application of such stents are still insufficient due the delayed re-endothelialization progress, as well as the poor durability of the SMC inhibition. In this paper, we developed a mussel-inspired coating with the ability for the dual delivery of both growth factor (e.g., platelet-derived growth factor, PDGF) and therapeutic gas (e.g., nitric oxide, NO) for thrombosis prevention. We firstly synthesized the mussel-inspired co-polymer (DMHM) of dopamine methacrylamide (DMA) and hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and then coated the DMHM on 316L SS stents combined with CuII. Afterwards, we immobilized the PDGF on the DMHM-coated stent and found that the PDGF could be released in the first 3 days to enhance the recruitment, proliferation, and migration of human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) to promote re-endothelialization. The CuII could be “sealed” in the DMHM coating, with extended durability (2 months), with the capacity for catalyzed NO generation for up to 2 months to suppress the proliferation of SMCs. Such a stent surface modification strategy could enhance the development of the cardiovascular stents for thrombosis prevention.

Comorbidity characteristics of multiple myeloma patients diagnosed in Finland 2005-2016

Multiple myeloma (MM) patients are predominantly elderly with comorbidities that have an impact on patient mortality and treatment decisions. We previously reported the patient characteristics and overall survival outcomes of the Finnish MM cohort diagnosed between 2005 and 2016 in a nationwide retrospective registry study comprising 3,851 adults. Here, we report detailed comorbidity characteristics for this real-world Finnish MM population at cohort entry and during follow-up. Data on diagnoses and causes of death were obtained from Finnish healthcare data registries and interrogated using various multistate time-to-event models. In the year preceding MM diagnosis, comorbidities (as per Charlson Comorbidity Index definition) were recorded in 38.0% of the cohort, of which 27.9% presented with pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 4.8% had suffered a major adverse cardiac event (MACE). At 2 years post-MM diagnosis, cumulative incidence for CVD and MACE more than doubled to 57.1% and 11.4%, respectively, and only 31.9% of the cohort remained CVD-free. Prevalent secondary malignancies were recorded in 16.8% of the patient population at MM diagnosis, with cumulative incidence increasing steadily to 27.5% at 2 years and 33% at 5 years post-diagnosis. The main cause of mortality attributed to MM, CVD, secondary malignancy, or other causes remained stable throughout the follow-up, at an average of 74.2%, 9.4%, 9.8%, and 6.5%, respectively. Prevalence of CVDs and secondary malignancies is high in Finnish patients at MM diagnosis, with older male patients suffering from higher MACE and mortality risk. Proper recording and management of comorbidities alongside novel treatments remain crucial for optimal MM management.

Predictive factors for major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in octogenarians after elective endovascular aneurysm repair

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in octogenarians who received elective endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR).

METHODS

Consecutive patients aged ≥ 80 years undergoing elective EVAR from 2009 to 2020 were retrospectively evaluated. The primary outcome was long-term MACCE. All independent risk factors for outcomes were determined by multivariate logistic analysis or Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 163 patients were enrolled in this study. The median age was 81 (interquartile range, IQR, 80-84) years and 85.9% (140/163) of them were male. MACCE happened in 2.5% (4/163) patients within 30 days. With median follow-up of 28 (IQR, 15-46) months, the incidence of long-term MACCE was 26.4% (43/163). Arrythmia was significantly associated with long-term MACCE (hazard ratio, HR = 2.64, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.16-6.03, P = .021). Carotid artery disease was found a significant association with 2-year MACCE (odd ratio, OR = 6.50, 95% CI, 1.07-39.51, P = .042). Besides, we found that arrythmia and congestive heart failure (CHF) were predictors for overall survival (arrythmia, HR = 2.56, 95% CI, 1.05-6.28, P = .039; CHF, HR = 8.96, 95% CI, 2.12-37.79, P = .003).

CONCLUSIONS

EVAR in octogenarians had acceptable perioperative risk and long-term outcome. Considering high risk of 2-year MACCE, intervention strategy should be more cautious for patients with carotid artery disease. Octogenarians with arrythmia and CHF should receive stricter postoperative management in case of MACCE.

Assessment of Clinical Worsening End Points as a Surrogate for Mortality in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

Clinical worsening (CW) is a composite end point commonly used in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) trials. We aimed to assess the trial-level surrogacy of CW for mortality in PAH trials, and whether the various CW components were similar in terms of frequency of occurrence, treatment-related relative risk (RR) reduction, and importance to patients.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library (January 1990 to December 2020) for trials evaluating the effects of PAH therapies on CW. The coefficient of determination between the RR for CW and mortality was assessed by regression analysis. The frequency of occurrence, RR reduction, and importance to patients of the CW components were assessed.

RESULTS

We included 35 independent cohorts (9450 patients). PAH therapies significantly reduced CW events (RR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.55-0.73]), including PAH-related hospitalizations (RR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.47-0.79]), treatment escalation (RR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.38-0.84]) and symptomatic progression (RR, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.48-0.69]), and modestly reduced all-cause mortality when incorporating deaths occurring after a primary CW-defining event (RR, 0.860 [95% CI, 0.742-0.997]). However, the effects of PAH-specific therapies on CW only modestly correlated with their effects on mortality (R²_trial, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.10-0.59]; P<0.0001), and the gradient in the treatment effect across component end points was large in the majority of trials. The weighted proportions of CW-defining events were hospitalization (33.5%) and symptomatic progression (32.3%), whereas death (6.7%), treatment escalation (5.6%), and transplantation/atrioseptostomy (0.2%) were infrequent. CW events were driven by the occurrence of events of major (49%) and mild-to-moderate (37%) importance to patients, with 14% of the events valued as critical.

CONCLUSIONS

PAH therapies significantly reduced CW events, but study-level CW is not a surrogate for mortality in PAH trials. Moreover, components of CW largely vary in frequency, response to therapy, and importance to patients and are thus not interchangeable.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO; Unique identifier: CRD42020178949.

Impact of phase angle and sarcopenia estimated by bioimpedance analysis on clinical prognosis in patients undergoing hemodialysis: A retrospective study

Bioimpedance analysis (BIA) has been widely used in the evaluation of body composition in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis. We conducted this study to evaluate impact of phase angle (PA) and sarcopenia measured by BIA on clinical prognosis in these patients.This longitudinal retrospective study enrolled patients who underwent hemodialysis between January 2016 and March 2019. The patients were stratified into higher (> 4°) and lower (≤ 4.0°) PA groups. Sarcopenia was defined when the appendicular skeletal muscle mass was < 20 kg in men and < 15 kg in women.Of the 191 patients, 63.4% were men. The mean age was 64.2 ± 12.4 years. The lower PA group was older, had a higher proportion of women, a lower body mass index, lower albumin, cholesterol, uric acid, and phosphorus levels, and a higher incidence of history of coronary artery disease than the higher PA group. Linear regression analysis revealed that PA was significantly associated with body mass index (B = 0.18, P = .005), serum albumin (B = 0.23, P = .001), and creatinine levels (B = 0.32, P < .001). During a median follow-up of 16.7 months, 14.1% (n = 27) of patients experienced major adverse cardiovascular events and 11.0% (n = 21) died. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the higher PA group had significantly better survival, regardless of sarcopenia. Multivariate Cox analyses revealed that lower PA (0.51 [0.31-0.85], P = .010), higher IDWG (1.06 [1.01-1.12], P = .028) and C-reactive protein level (1.01 [1.01-1.02], P < .001), and a history of coronary artery disease (3.02 [1.04-8.77], P = .042) were significantly related to all-cause mortality after adjusting for other covariates.PA measured by BIA was an independent factor in the prediction of mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients, regardless of sarcopenia. Intervention studies are needed to confirm if the improvement in PA is associated with better clinical outcome.

Major Adverse Cardiac Events after Elective Infrarenal Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair

OBJECTIVE

There is a significant cardiac morbidity and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). However, information about long-term risk of cardiac events after EVAR and potential predictors is lacking. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine incidence and predictors of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at one- and five-years after elective EVAR for infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms.

METHODS

Baseline, perioperative and postoperative information of 320 patients was evaluated. The primary outcome was the incidence of MACE after EVAR, which was defined as acute coronary syndrome, unstable angina pectoris, de novo atrial fibrillation, hospitalization for heart failure, mitral valve insufficiency, revascularization (including PCI and CABG), as well as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death. Kaplan Meier analysis was performed to determine incidences of MACE, MACE excluding non-cardiovascular death and cardiac events by excluding non-cardiovascular and vascular death from MACE. Predictors of MACE were identified using univariate and multivariate binary regression analysis.

RESULTS

Through one- and five-years follow-up after EVAR, freedom from MACE was 89.4% (standard error (SE) 0.018) and 59.8% (SE 0.033), freedom from MACE excluding non-cardiovascular death was 94.7% (SE 0.013) and 77.5% (SE 0.030) and freedom from cardiac events was 96.0% (SE 0.011) and 79.1% (SE 0.030), respectively. Predictors for MACE within one-year were American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) score 3 or 4 (OR, 3.17; 95% CI, 1.52-6.59) and larger abdominal aortic diameter (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08). History of atrial fibrillation (OR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.03-0.60) was a negative predictor factor. Predictors for MACE through five-years were history of heart failure (OR, 4.10; 95% CI 1.36-12.32) and valvular heart disease (OR, 2.31; 95% CI, 0.97-5.51), ASA score 3 or 4 (OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 0.96-2.88) and older age (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08).

CONCLUSION

MACE is a common complication during the first five-years after elective EVAR. Cardiac diseases at baseline are strong predictors for long-term MACE and potentially helpful in optimizing future post-operative long-term follow-up.

Composite outcomes in observational studies of Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess composite and aggregate outcomes of observational studies in Crohn's disease and to evaluate whether the number and type of variables included affect the frequency of the outcome.

METHODS

MEDLINE [via PubMed], Scopus and Web of Science were searched to identify observational studies that enrolled patients with Crohn's disease and evaluated a composite or aggregate outcome. The proportion of patients achieving the outcome was determined and a random-effects meta-analysis was performed to evaluate how the frequency of each outcome varies according to the reporting of predefined variables.

RESULTS

From 10,257 identified records, 46 were included in the qualitative analysis and 38 in the meta-analysis. The frequency for composite and aggregate outcomes was 0.445 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.389-0.501] and 0.140 (95% CI: 0.000-0.211), respectively. When comparing composite outcomes by number of included variables, the frequency was 0.271 (95% CI: 0.000-0.405) and 0.698 (95% CI: 0.651-0.746), for one and six variables, respectively. The frequency of the composite outcome varied according to the identity of the variables being reported. Specific pairs of predefined variables had a significant effect in the frequency of composite outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Composite outcomes with increasing number of predefined variables show an increase in frequency. Outcomes including variables such as 'Surgery' and 'Steroids' had higher frequencies when compared with the ones that did not include these variables. These results show that the frequency of composite outcomes is dependent on the number and type of variables being reported.

Periodontitis and Other Risk Factors Related to Myocardial Infarction and Its Follow-Up

The main issue in the prevention of myocardial infarction (MI) is to reduce risk factors. Periodontal disease is related to cardiovascular disease and both share risk factors. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether periodontitis can be considered a risk factor for MI and common risk factors in a case-control study and in a prospective follow-up study in patients with MI. The test group (MIG) was made up of 144 males who had MI in the previous 48 h. The control group (CG) was composed of 138 males without MI. Both groups were subdivided according to the presence or absence of stage III and IV of periodontitis. General data; Mediterranean diet and physical activity screening; periodontal data; and biochemical, microbiological and cardiological parameters were recorded. ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis statistical tests and binary logistic regression analysis were applied. No differences in anthropometric variables were observed between the four groups. The average weekly exercise hours have a higher value in CG without periodontitis. The number of leukocytes was higher in MIG, the number of monocytes was higher in CG and the number of teeth was lower in MIG with periodontitis. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was higher in CG. Porphyromonas gingivalis and Tannerella forsythia were higher in CG with periodontitis and in MIG with and without periodontitis. At follow-up, the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) data were better in the non-periodontitis group: 15 patients had Mayor Cardiovascular Adverse Events (MACE), 13 of them had periodontitis and 2 did not show periodontitis. Periodontitis, exercise, diet and smoking are risk factors related to MI. MACE presented in the 'MI follow-up' shows periodontitis, weight, exercise hours and dyslipidemia as risk factors. LVEF follow-up values are preserved in patients without periodontitis. Our data suggest that periodontitis can be considered a risk factor for MI and MACE in the studied population.

Advanced glycation end products via skin autofluorescence as a new biomarker for major adverse cardiovascular events: A meta-analysis of prospective studies

AIMS

This meta-analysis aimed to systematically evaluate the prospective association between advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

DATA SYNTHESIS

Prospective studies that reported the association of AGEs (measured by skin autofluorescence) with MACE were searched in PubMed and EMBASE from inception up to July 2021. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs) reflecting the risk of MACE associated with AGEs were determined using random-effects meta-analysis. Fourteen articles with sixteen items involving 79,389 participants were included. A significant association was found between AGEs and MACE (pooled HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.31-1.81, I² = 68%). Moreover, AGEs were associated with a significant increase in fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) (HR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.30-2.70) and nonfatal CVD (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.12-1.74). The association between AGEs and MACE was also significant in patients with diabetes (HR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.31-2.69) and kidney disease (HR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.16-1.94).

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis indicates that higher levels of AGEs measured by skin autofluorescence are significantly correlated with a higher pooled risk of MACE, and AGEs are closely related to both nonfatal and fatal cardiovascular events. AGEs are a valuable biomarker for predicting the occurrence of MACE.

THE PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021279714.

Comparative effectiveness of statins on non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol in people with diabetes and at risk of cardiovascular disease: systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the efficacy of different statin treatments by intensity on levels of non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in people with diabetes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Embase from inception to 1 December 2021.

REVIEW METHODS

Randomised controlled trials comparing different types and intensities of statins, including placebo, in adults with type 1 or type 2 diabetes mellitus were included. The primary outcome was changes in levels of non-HDL-C, calculated from measures of total cholesterol and HDL-C. Secondary outcomes were changes in levels of low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and total cholesterol, three point major cardiovascular events (non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and death related to cardiovascular disease), and discontinuations because of adverse events. A bayesian network meta-analysis of statin intensity (low, moderate, or high) with random effects evaluated the treatment effect on non-HDL-C by mean differences and 95% credible intervals. Subgroup analysis of patients at greater risk of major cardiovascular events was compared with patients at low or moderate risk. The confidence in network meta-analysis (CINeMA) framework was applied to determine the certainty of evidence.

RESULTS

In 42 randomised controlled trials involving 20 193 adults, 11 698 were included in the meta-analysis. Compared with placebo, the greatest reductions in levels of non-HDL-C were seen with rosuvastatin at high (-2.31 mmol/L, 95% credible interval -3.39 to -1.21) and moderate (-2.27, -3.00 to -1.49) intensities, and simvastatin (-2.26, -2.99 to -1.51) and atorvastatin (-2.20, -2.69 to -1.70) at high intensity. Atorvastatin and simvastatin at any intensity and pravastatin at low intensity were also effective in reducing levels of non-HDL-C. In 4670 patients at greater risk of a major cardiovascular events, atorvastatin at high intensity showed the largest reduction in levels of non-HDL-C (-1.98, -4.16 to 0.26, surface under the cumulative ranking curve 64%). Simvastatin (-1.93, -2.63 to -1.21) and rosuvastatin (-1.76, -2.37 to -1.15) at high intensity were the most effective treatment options for reducing LDL-C. Significant reductions in non-fatal myocardial infarction were found for atorvastatin at moderate intensity compared with placebo (relative risk=0.57, confidence interval 0.43 to 0.76, n=4 studies). No significant differences were found for discontinuations, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

This network meta-analysis indicated that rosuvastatin, at moderate and high intensity doses, and simvastatin and atorvastatin, at high intensity doses, were most effective at moderately reducing levels of non-HDL-C in patients with diabetes. Given the potential improvement in accuracy in predicting cardiovascular disease when reduction in levels of non-HDL-C is used as the primary target, these findings provide guidance on which statin types and intensities are most effective by reducing non-HDL-C in patients with diabetes.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021258819.

Composite Outcomes in Clinical Prediction Modeling: Are We Trying to Predict Apples and Oranges?

Composite outcomes are widely used in clinical research. Existing literature has considered the pros and cons of composite outcomes in clinical trials, but their extensive use in clinical prediction has received much less attention. Clinical prediction assists decision-making by directing patients with higher risks of adverse outcomes toward interventions that provide the greatest benefits to those at the greatest risk. In this article, we summarize our existing understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of composite outcomes, consider how these relate to clinical prediction, and highlight the problem of key predictors having markedly different associations with individual components of the composite outcome. We suggest that a "composite outcome fallacy" may occur when a clinical prediction model is based on strong associations between key predictors and one component of a composite outcome (such as mortality) and used to direct patients toward intervention when these predictors actually have an inverse association with a more relevant component of the composite outcome (such as the use of a lifesaving intervention). We propose that clinical prediction scores using composite outcomes should report their accuracy for key components of the composite outcome and examine for inconsistencies among predictor variables.

Stress Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance in Long-Standing Non-Infarcted Chronic Coronary Syndrome with Preserved Systolic Function

(1) Background: The impact of imaging-derived ischemia is still under debate and the role of stress perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance (spCMR) in non-high-risk patient still needs to be clarified. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of spCMR in a case series of stable long-standing chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) patients with ischemia and no other risk factor. (2) Methods: This is a historical prospective study including 35 patients with history of long-standing CCS who underwent coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and additional adenosine spCMR. Clinical and imaging findings were included in the analysis. Primary outcomes were HF (heart failure) and all major cardiac events (MACE) including death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. (3) Results: Mean follow-up was 3.7 years (IQR: from 1 to 6). Mean ejection fraction was 61 ± 8%. Twelve patients (31%) referred primary outcomes. Probability of experiencing primary outcomes based on symptoms was 62% and increased to 67% and 91% when multivessel disease and ischemia, respectively, were considered. Higher ischemic burden was predictive of disease progression (OR: 1.59, 95%CI: 1.18–2.14; p-value = 0.002). spCMR model resulted non inferior to the model comprising all variables (4) Conclusions: In vivo spCMR-modeling including perfusion and strain anomalies could represent a powerful tool in long-standing CCS, even when conventional imaging predictors are missing.

Blood Pressure Hyperreactivity to Standing: a Predictor of Adverse Outcome in Young Hypertensive Patients

The prognostic significance and the mechanisms of blood pressure (BP) hyperreactivity to standing remain controversial. This study aims to evaluate the association of orthostatic hyperreactivity with major adverse cardiovascular and renal events in a cohort of young hypertensive subjects. We studied 1207 untreated subjects screened for stage I hypertension with a mean age of 33.1±8.6 years. The orthostatic BP change was calculated as the difference between 6 standing and 6 supine BP readings obtained during 2 separate visits. Hyperreactivity to standing was defined as the standing-supine systolic BP difference in the top decile. The mean difference in the whole group was -2.5±7.3/4.6±5.4 mm Hg. Ambulatory hypertension evaluated with 24-hour recordings was more common in Hyperreactors than Normoreactors (90.8% versus 76.4%, P=0.001). In 630 participants in whom 24-hour urinary catecholamines were measured, epinephrine/creatinine ratio was higher in hyperreactors (118.4±185.6 versus 77.0±90.1 nmol/mol, P=0.005). During a 17.2-year follow-up, 105 major adverse cardiovascular and renal events were accrued. In a multivariate Cox model, hyperreactivity to standing was an independent predictor of major adverse cardiovascular and renal events with a hazard ratio of 1.97 (95% CI, 1.10-3.52). Hyperreactivity remained an independent predictor of adverse events even when ambulatory BP data and incident hypertension during follow-up were included in the Cox model (hazard ratio, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.10-3.44]). Our data indicate that in young-to-middle-age hypertensive subjects an exaggerated systolic BP response to standing is associated with sympatho-adrenergic hyperreactivity and is an independent predictor of major adverse cardiovascular and renal events. Orthostatic BP assessment gives the advantage of simple acquisition and provides prognostic information on top of ambulatory BP.

Clinical Features and Prognoses of Middle-Aged Women With ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction With a Focus on Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) has become an increasingly recognized cause of acute coronary syndrome, particularly in young women, over the last decade. The goal of this study was to determine the prognoses and characteristics of adult women with SCAD who presented with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study enrolled all adult women under the age of 60 who had undergone coronary artery angiography in the setting of STEMI. The patients were divided into 3 groups based on their angiographic characteristics: STEMI-SCAD (STEMI due to SCAD), STEMI-ATH (STEMI caused by an atherosclerotic lesion), and STEMI-others (STEMI due to other etiologies including Takotsubo cardiomyopathy and myopericarditis, as well as STEMI despite a normal epicardial coronary angiography).

RESULTS

Fifteen women out of 311 female patients aged below 60 years with STEMI were diagnosed with SCAD (4.8%). There were no significant differences in body mass index, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking status, opium addiction status, family history, previous percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, and cerebrovascular accidents between the STEMI-SCAD and STEMI-ATH groups. Nevertheless, the STEMI-SCAD and STEMI-others groups were more likely to be younger, less likely to be diabetic, and less likely to have 3 cardiovascular risk factors or more than was the STEMI-ATH group. The left anterior descending artery was the most common culprit lesion in the STEMI-SCAD group (80%) and the other 2 groups. Out of the 311 patients, 7 patients died during the index hospitalization: 1 patient in the STEMI-SCAD group, 6 patients in the STEMI-ATH group, and 0 patients in the STEMI-others group. None of the patients in the STEMI-others group experienced any major adverse cardiac events during the follow-up. In the other 2 groups, the most experienced outcomes were myocardial infarction and in-hospital cardiac death, followed by target lesion revascularization and target vessel revascularization.

CONCLUSIONS

STEMI-SCAD is one of the known causes of STEMI in young women. Still, despite the complexity of revascularization in our patients with STEMI-SCAD, they had more favorable prognoses in both conservative and revascularization management modalities than our patients with STEMI-ATH.

Influence of the Triglyceride-Glucose Index on Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events in Prediabetic Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease and insulin resistance are closely related. The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is frequently used as an indicator of insulin resistance. However, there is scant information on the TyG index in the prediabetic population, nor is the prognostic significance of the index known for prediabetes and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients.

METHODS

The clinical endpoint was a major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular event (MACCEs), including cardiac-related death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, ischemia-driven revascularization, and stroke. The TyG index was calculated as = ln [(triglyceride level, mg/dL) × (glucose level, mg/dL)÷2] under fasting conditions.

RESULTS

The study included 2,030 prediabetic patients with ACS. Patients were followed up for 2.5 years, during which the total incidence of MACCEs was 12%. After adjustment for covariates, the TyG index was found to be predictive of prediabetes with ACS (HR 4.942, 95%CI: 3.432-6.115, P<0.001). Using propensity score matching, 574 pairs were successfully matched, and the two groups were analyzed in terms of survival. This showed that there was a significantly greater incidence of MACCEs in patients with high TyG indices (HR 3.526, 95%CI: 2.618-4.749, P<0.001), mainly due to ischemia-driven revascularization and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

The TyG index independently predicts future MACCEs and may be an important prognostic indicator for patients with prediabetes and ACS.

The comparative and added prognostic value of biomarkers to the Revised Cardiac Risk Index for preoperative prediction of major adverse cardiac events and all-cause mortality in patients who undergo noncardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) is a widely acknowledged prognostic model to estimate preoperatively the probability of developing in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. However, the RCRI does not always make accurate predictions, so various studies have investigated whether biomarkers added to or compared with the RCRI could improve this.

OBJECTIVES

Primary: To investigate the added predictive value of biomarkers to the RCRI to preoperatively predict in-hospital MACE and other adverse outcomes in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Secondary: To investigate the prognostic value of biomarkers compared to the RCRI to preoperatively predict in-hospital MACE and other adverse outcomes in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Tertiary: To investigate the prognostic value of other prediction models compared to the RCRI to preoperatively predict in-hospital MACE and other adverse outcomes in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and Embase from 1 January 1999 (the year that the RCRI was published) until 25 June 2020. We also searched ISI Web of Science and SCOPUS for articles referring to the original RCRI development study in that period.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies among adults who underwent noncardiac surgery, reporting on (external) validation of the RCRI and: - the addition of biomarker(s) to the RCRI; or - the comparison of the predictive accuracy of biomarker(s) to the RCRI; or - the comparison of the predictive accuracy of the RCRI to other models. Besides MACE, all other adverse outcomes were considered for inclusion.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form based on the CHARMS checklist. Independent pairs of authors screened references, extracted data and assessed risk of bias and concerns regarding applicability according to PROBAST. For biomarkers and prediction models that were added or compared to the RCRI in ≥ 3 different articles, we described study characteristics and findings in further detail. We did not apply GRADE as no guidance is available for prognostic model reviews.

MAIN RESULTS

We screened 3960 records and included 107 articles.   Over all objectives we rated risk of bias as high in ≥ 1 domain in 90% of included studies, particularly in the analysis domain. Statistical pooling or meta-analysis of reported results was impossible due to heterogeneity in various aspects: outcomes used, scale by which the biomarker was added/compared to the RCRI, prediction horizons and studied populations.  Added predictive value of biomarkers to the RCRI Fifty-one studies reported on the added value of biomarkers to the RCRI. Sixty-nine different predictors were identified derived from blood (29%), imaging (33%) or other sources (38%). Addition of NT-proBNP, troponin or their combination improved the RCRI for predicting MACE (median delta c-statistics: 0.08, 0.14 and 0.12 for NT-proBNP, troponin and their combination, respectively). The median total net reclassification index (NRI) was 0.16 and 0.74 after addition of troponin and NT-proBNP to the RCRI, respectively. Calibration was not reported. To predict myocardial infarction, the median delta c-statistic when NT-proBNP was added to the RCRI was 0.09, and 0.06 for prediction of all-cause mortality and MACE combined. For BNP and copeptin, data were not sufficient to provide results on their added predictive performance, for any of the outcomes. Comparison of the predictive value of biomarkers to the RCRI  Fifty-one studies assessed the predictive performance of biomarkers alone compared to the RCRI. We identified 60 unique predictors derived from blood (38%), imaging (30%) or other sources, such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification (32%). Predictions were similar between the ASA classification and the RCRI for all studied outcomes. In studies different from those identified in objective 1, the median delta c-statistic was 0.15 and 0.12 in favour of  BNP and NT-proBNP alone, respectively, when compared to the RCRI, for the prediction of MACE. For C-reactive protein, the predictive performance was similar to the RCRI. For other biomarkers and outcomes, data were insufficient to provide summary results. One study reported on calibration and none on reclassification. Comparison of the predictive value of other prognostic models to the RCRI   Fifty-two articles compared the predictive ability of the RCRI to other prognostic models. Of these, 42% developed a new prediction model, 22% updated the RCRI, or another prediction model, and 37% validated an existing prediction model. None of the other prediction models showed better performance in predicting MACE than the RCRI. To predict myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest, ACS-NSQIP-MICA had a higher median delta c-statistic of 0.11 compared to the RCRI. To predict all-cause mortality, the median delta c-statistic was 0.15 higher in favour of ACS-NSQIP-SRS compared to the RCRI. Predictive performance was not better for CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, R₂CHADS₂, Goldman index, Detsky index or VSG-CRI compared to the RCRI for any of the outcomes. Calibration and reclassification were reported in only one and three studies, respectively.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Studies included in this review suggest that the predictive performance of the RCRI in predicting MACE is improved when NT-proBNP, troponin or their combination are added. Other studies indicate that BNP and NT-proBNP, when used in isolation, may even have a higher discriminative performance than the RCRI. There was insufficient evidence of a difference between the predictive accuracy of the RCRI and other prediction models in predicting MACE. However, ACS-NSQIP-MICA and ACS-NSQIP-SRS outperformed the RCRI in predicting myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest combined, and all-cause mortality, respectively. Nevertheless, the results cannot be interpreted as conclusive due to high risks of bias in a majority of papers, and pooling was impossible due to heterogeneity in outcomes, prediction horizons, biomarkers and studied populations. Future research on the added prognostic value of biomarkers to existing prediction models should focus on biomarkers with good predictive accuracy in other settings (e.g. diagnosis of myocardial infarction) and identification of biomarkers from omics data. They should be compared to novel biomarkers with so far insufficient evidence compared to established ones, including NT-proBNP or troponins. Adherence to recent guidance for prediction model studies (e.g. TRIPOD; PROBAST) and use of standardised outcome definitions in primary studies is highly recommended to facilitate systematic review and meta-analyses in the future.

Patients with periodontitis and erectile dysfunction suffer a greater incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events: a prospective study in Spanish population

BACKGROUND

Periodontitis and erectile dysfunction have been linked with cardiovascular disease. The association of periodontitis and erectile dysfunction with the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events has not been previously assessed. The aim of this study was to determine if the presence of periodontitis and erectile dysfunction has any effect on the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events.

METHODS

Male patients that attended the Urology service were enrolled in a prospective study. Erectile dysfunction was diagnosed according to the International Index of Erectile Function. Sociodemographic data and periodontal clinical parameters were gathered (pocket probing depth, clinical attachment loss, bleeding on probing, plaque index and number of teeth) at baseline. Major adverse cardiovascular events occurred both before and during the follow-up time were registered. Bivariate analyses, as well as a multivariate analysis were performed, adjusting for potential confounders.

RESULTS

158 patients were included, with a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. A greater number of major adverse cardiovascular events occurred in the group that presented periodontitis and erectile dysfunction (p = 0.038). After adjusting by age and previous cardiovascular disease in the multivariate analysis, the annual major adverse cardiovascular event rate was estimated to be 3.7 times higher in the same group (p = 0.049). Other periodontal clinical variables together with erectile dysfunction supported these results and were close to statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with periodontitis and erectile dysfunction, adjusted by age and a cardiovascular disease, showed 3.7 times more risk of suffering major adverse cardiovascular events after mean follow-up of 4.2 years.

ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY

Patients with periodontitis and erectile dysfunction showed a risk 3.7 times higher of suffering major adverse cardiovascular events after a mean follow-up of 4.2 years. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Major adverse cardiovascular event definitions used in observational analysis of administrative databases: a systematic review

Background

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) are increasingly used as composite outcomes in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. However, it is unclear how observational studies most commonly define MACE in the literature when using administrative data.

Methods

We identified peer-reviewed articles published in MEDLINE and EMBASE between January 1, 2010 to October 9, 2020. Studies utilizing administrative data to assess the MACE composite outcome using International Classification of Diseases 9th or 10th Revision diagnosis codes were included. Reviews, abstracts, and studies not providing outcome code definitions were excluded. Data extracted included data source, timeframe, MACE components, code definitions, code positions, and outcome validation.

Results

A total of 920 articles were screened, 412 were retained for full-text review, and 58 were included. Only 8.6% (n = 5/58) matched the traditional three-point MACE RCT definition of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, or cardiovascular death. None matched four-point (+unstable angina) or five-point MACE (+unstable angina and heart failure). The most common MACE components were: AMI and stroke, 15.5% (n = 9/58); AMI, stroke, and all-cause death, 13.8% (n = 8/58); and AMI, stroke and cardiovascular death 8.6% (n = 5/58). Further, 67% (n = 39/58) did not validate outcomes or cite validation studies. Additionally, 70.7% (n = 41/58) did not report code positions of endpoints, 20.7% (n = 12/58) used the primary position, and 8.6% (n = 5/58) used any position.

Conclusions

Components of MACE endpoints and diagnostic codes used varied widely across observational studies. Variability in the MACE definitions used and information reported across observational studies prohibit the comparison, replication, and aggregation of findings. Studies should transparently report the administrative codes used and code positions, as well as utilize validated outcome definitions when possible.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01440-5.