1
|
Arnold PIM, Janzing JGE, Hommersom A. Machine learning for antidepressant treatment selection in depression. Drug Discov Today 2024; 29:104068. [PMID: 38925472 DOI: 10.1016/j.drudis.2024.104068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/16/2023] [Revised: 06/07/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024]
Abstract
Finding the right antidepressant for the individual patient with major depressive disorder can be a difficult endeavor and is mostly based on trial-and-error. Machine learning (ML) is a promising tool to personalize antidepressant prescription. In this review, we summarize the current evidence of ML in the selection of antidepressants and conclude that its value for clinical practice is still limited. Apart from the current focus on effectiveness, several other factors should be taken into account to make ML-based prediction models useful for clinical application.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Prehm I M Arnold
- Department of Psychiatry, Radboudumc, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
2
|
Benrimoh D, Kleinerman A, Furukawa TA, Iii CFR, Lenze EJ, Karp J, Mulsant B, Armstrong C, Mehltretter J, Fratila R, Perlman K, Israel S, Popescu C, Golden G, Qassim S, Anacleto A, Tanguay-Sela M, Kapelner A, Rosenfeld A, Turecki G. Towards Outcome-Driven Patient Subgroups: A Machine Learning Analysis Across Six Depression Treatment Studies. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry 2024; 32:280-292. [PMID: 37839909 DOI: 10.1016/j.jagp.2023.09.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 09/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a heterogeneous condition; multiple underlying neurobiological and behavioral substrates are associated with treatment response variability. Understanding the sources of this variability and predicting outcomes has been elusive. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in predicting treatment response in MDD, but its application is limited by challenges to the clinical interpretability of ML models, and clinicians often lack confidence in model results. In order to improve the interpretability of ML models in clinical practice, our goal was to demonstrate the derivation of treatment-relevant patient profiles comprised of clinical and demographic information using a novel ML approach. METHODS We analyzed data from six clinical trials of pharmacological treatment for depression (total n = 5438) using the Differential Prototypes Neural Network (DPNN), a ML model that derives patient prototypes which can be used to derive treatment-relevant patient clusters while learning to generate probabilities for differential treatment response. A model classifying remission and outputting individual remission probabilities for five first-line monotherapies and three combination treatments was trained using clinical and demographic data. Prototypes were evaluated for interpretability by assessing differences in feature distributions (e.g. age, sex, symptom severity) and treatment-specific outcomes. RESULTS A 3-prototype model achieved an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.66 and an expected absolute improvement in remission rate for those receiving the best predicted treatment of 6.5% (relative improvement of 15.6%) compared to the population remission rate. We identified three treatment-relevant patient clusters. Cluster A patients tended to be younger, to have increased levels of fatigue, and more severe symptoms. Cluster B patients tended to be older, female, have less severe symptoms, and the highest remission rates. Cluster C patients had more severe symptoms, lower remission rates, more psychomotor agitation, more intense suicidal ideation, and more somatic genital symptoms. CONCLUSION It is possible to produce novel treatment-relevant patient profiles using ML models; doing so may improve interpretability of ML models and the quality of precision medicine treatments for MDD.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David Benrimoh
- Department of Psychiatry (DB, KP, GT), McGill University, Montreal, Canada; Department of Psychiatry (DB), Stanford University, Stanford, CA; Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada.
| | | | - Toshi A Furukawa
- Department of Health Promotion and Human Behavior (TAF), Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Charles F Reynolds Iii
- Department of Psychiatry (CFR), University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA; Department of Psychiatry (CFR), Tufts University School of Medicine, Medford, MA
| | - Eric J Lenze
- Department of Psychiatry (EJL), Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MS
| | - Jordan Karp
- Department of Psychiatry (JK), University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
| | - Benoit Mulsant
- Department of Psychiatry (BM), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Caitrin Armstrong
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Joseph Mehltretter
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Robert Fratila
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Kelly Perlman
- Department of Psychiatry (DB, KP, GT), McGill University, Montreal, Canada; Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Sonia Israel
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Christina Popescu
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Grace Golden
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Sabrina Qassim
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Alexandra Anacleto
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Myriam Tanguay-Sela
- Aifred Health (DB, CA, JM, RF, KP, SI, CP, GG, SQ, AA, MTS), Montreal, Canada
| | - Adam Kapelner
- Department of Mathematics (AK), Queens College, CUNY, New York, NY
| | | | - Gustavo Turecki
- Department of Psychiatry (DB, KP, GT), McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Sato A, Moriyama T, Watanabe N, Maruo K, Furukawa TA. Development and validation of a prediction model for rehospitalization among people with schizophrenia discharged from acute inpatient care. Front Psychiatry 2023; 14:1242918. [PMID: 37692317 PMCID: PMC10483840 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2023.1242918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Accepted: 07/25/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective Relapses and rehospitalization prevent the recovery of individuals with schizophrenia or related psychoses. We aimed to build a model to predict the risk of rehospitalization among people with schizophrenia or related psychoses, including those with multiple episodes. Methods This retrospective cohort study included individuals aged 18 years or older, with schizophrenia or related psychoses, and discharged between January 2014 and December 2018 from one of three Japanese psychiatric hospital acute inpatient care ward. We collected nine predictors at the time of recruitment, followed up with the participants for 12 months, and observed whether psychotic relapse had occurred. Next, we applied the Cox regression model and used an elastic net to avoid overfitting. Then, we examined discrimination using bootstrapping, Steyerberg's method, and "leave-one-hospital-out" cross-validation. We also constructed a bias-corrected calibration plot. Results Data from a total of 805 individuals were analyzed. The significant predictors were the number of previous hospitalizations (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.22-1.64) and the current length of stay in days (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.04-1.64). In model development for relapse, Harrell's c-index was 0.59 (95% CI 0.55-0.63). The internal and internal-external validation for rehospitalization showed Harrell's c-index to be 0.64 (95% CI 0.59-0.69) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.57-0.74), respectively. The calibration plot was found to be adequate. Conclusion The model showed moderate discrimination of readmission after discharge. Carefully defining a research question by seeking needs among the population with chronic schizophrenia with multiple episodes may be key to building a useful model.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Akira Sato
- Department of Health Promotion and Human Behavior, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | - Norio Watanabe
- Department of Psychiatry, Soseikai General Hospital, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Kazushi Maruo
- Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Toshi A. Furukawa
- Department of Health Promotion and Human Behavior, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Efthimiou O, Hoogland J, Debray TP, Seo M, Furukawa TA, Egger M, White IR. Measuring the performance of prediction models to personalize treatment choice. Stat Med 2023; 42:1188-1206. [PMID: 36700492 PMCID: PMC7615726 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Revised: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 12/31/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
When data are available from individual patients receiving either a treatment or a control intervention in a randomized trial, various statistical and machine learning methods can be used to develop models for predicting future outcomes under the two conditions, and thus to predict treatment effect at the patient level. These predictions can subsequently guide personalized treatment choices. Although several methods for validating prediction models are available, little attention has been given to measuring the performance of predictions of personalized treatment effect. In this article, we propose a range of measures that can be used to this end. We start by defining two dimensions of model accuracy for treatment effects, for a single outcome: discrimination for benefit and calibration for benefit. We then amalgamate these two dimensions into an additional concept, decision accuracy, which quantifies the model's ability to identify patients for whom the benefit from treatment exceeds a given threshold. Subsequently, we propose a series of performance measures related to these dimensions and discuss estimating procedures, focusing on randomized data. Our methods are applicable for continuous or binary outcomes, for any type of prediction model, as long as it uses baseline covariates to predict outcomes under treatment and control. We illustrate all methods using two simulated datasets and a real dataset from a trial in depression. We implement all methods in the R package predieval. Results suggest that the proposed measures can be useful in evaluating and comparing the performance of competing models in predicting individualized treatment effect.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Orestis Efthimiou
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Department of PsychiatryUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Jeroen Hoogland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary CareUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology and Data ScienceAmsterdam University Medical CentersAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Thomas P.A. Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary CareUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
- Smart Data Analysis and Statistics B.V.UtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Michael Seo
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Graduate School for Health SciencesUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | - Toshiaki A. Furukawa
- Departments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior and of Clinical EpidemiologyKyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public HealthKyotoJapan
| | - Matthias Egger
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical SchoolUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Ian R. White
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCLUniversity College LondonLondonUK
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Tornero-Costa R, Martinez-Millana A, Azzopardi-Muscat N, Lazeri L, Traver V, Novillo-Ortiz D. Methodological and Quality Flaws in the Use of Artificial Intelligence in Mental Health Research: Systematic Review. JMIR Ment Health 2023; 10:e42045. [PMID: 36729567 PMCID: PMC9936371 DOI: 10.2196/42045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2022] [Revised: 11/02/2022] [Accepted: 11/20/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Artificial intelligence (AI) is giving rise to a revolution in medicine and health care. Mental health conditions are highly prevalent in many countries, and the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk of further erosion of the mental well-being in the population. Therefore, it is relevant to assess the current status of the application of AI toward mental health research to inform about trends, gaps, opportunities, and challenges. OBJECTIVE This study aims to perform a systematic overview of AI applications in mental health in terms of methodologies, data, outcomes, performance, and quality. METHODS A systematic search in PubMed, Scopus, IEEE Xplore, and Cochrane databases was conducted to collect records of use cases of AI for mental health disorder studies from January 2016 to November 2021. Records were screened for eligibility if they were a practical implementation of AI in clinical trials involving mental health conditions. Records of AI study cases were evaluated and categorized by the International Classification of Diseases 11th Revision (ICD-11). Data related to trial settings, collection methodology, features, outcomes, and model development and evaluation were extracted following the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) guideline. Further, evaluation of risk of bias is provided. RESULTS A total of 429 nonduplicated records were retrieved from the databases and 129 were included for a full assessment-18 of which were manually added. The distribution of AI applications in mental health was found unbalanced between ICD-11 mental health categories. Predominant categories were Depressive disorders (n=70) and Schizophrenia or other primary psychotic disorders (n=26). Most interventions were based on randomized controlled trials (n=62), followed by prospective cohorts (n=24) among observational studies. AI was typically applied to evaluate quality of treatments (n=44) or stratify patients into subgroups and clusters (n=31). Models usually applied a combination of questionnaires and scales to assess symptom severity using electronic health records (n=49) as well as medical images (n=33). Quality assessment revealed important flaws in the process of AI application and data preprocessing pipelines. One-third of the studies (n=56) did not report any preprocessing or data preparation. One-fifth of the models were developed by comparing several methods (n=35) without assessing their suitability in advance and a small proportion reported external validation (n=21). Only 1 paper reported a second assessment of a previous AI model. Risk of bias and transparent reporting yielded low scores due to a poor reporting of the strategy for adjusting hyperparameters, coefficients, and the explainability of the models. International collaboration was anecdotal (n=17) and data and developed models mostly remained private (n=126). CONCLUSIONS These significant shortcomings, alongside the lack of information to ensure reproducibility and transparency, are indicative of the challenges that AI in mental health needs to face before contributing to a solid base for knowledge generation and for being a support tool in mental health management.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Roberto Tornero-Costa
- Instituto Universitario de Investigación de Aplicaciones de las Tecnologías de la Información y de las Comunicaciones Avanzadas, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Antonio Martinez-Millana
- Instituto Universitario de Investigación de Aplicaciones de las Tecnologías de la Información y de las Comunicaciones Avanzadas, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat
- Division of Country Health Policies and Systems, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ledia Lazeri
- Division of Country Health Policies and Systems, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Vicente Traver
- Instituto Universitario de Investigación de Aplicaciones de las Tecnologías de la Información y de las Comunicaciones Avanzadas, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain
| | - David Novillo-Ortiz
- Division of Country Health Policies and Systems, World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Herrman H, Patel V, Kieling C, Berk M, Buchweitz C, Cuijpers P, Furukawa TA, Kessler RC, Kohrt BA, Maj M, McGorry P, Reynolds CF, Weissman MM, Chibanda D, Dowrick C, Howard LM, Hoven CW, Knapp M, Mayberg HS, Penninx BWJH, Xiao S, Trivedi M, Uher R, Vijayakumar L, Wolpert M. Time for united action on depression: a Lancet-World Psychiatric Association Commission. Lancet 2022; 399:957-1022. [PMID: 35180424 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)02141-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 292] [Impact Index Per Article: 146.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2020] [Revised: 09/15/2021] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Helen Herrman
- Orygen, The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia.
| | - Vikram Patel
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Sangath, Goa, India; Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Christian Kieling
- Department of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil; Child & Adolescent Psychiatry Division, Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Michael Berk
- Deakin University, IMPACT Institute, Geelong, VIC, Australia
| | - Claudia Buchweitz
- Graduate Program in Psychiatry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Pim Cuijpers
- Department of Clinical, Neuro and Developmental Psychology, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Toshiaki A Furukawa
- Department of Health Promotion and Human Behavior, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Ronald C Kessler
- Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Brandon A Kohrt
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Mario Maj
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Campania L Vanvitelli, Naples, Italy
| | - Patrick McGorry
- Orygen, The National Centre of Excellence in Youth Mental Health, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
| | - Charles F Reynolds
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Myrna M Weissman
- Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA; Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA; New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY, USA
| | - Dixon Chibanda
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe; Centre for Global Mental Health, The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christopher Dowrick
- Department of Primary Care and Mental Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Louise M Howard
- Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Christina W Hoven
- Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA; Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY, USA; New York State Psychiatric Institute, New York, NY, USA
| | - Martin Knapp
- Care Policy and Evaluation Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Helen S Mayberg
- Departments of Neurology, Neurosurgery, Psychiatry and Neuroscience, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA
| | - Brenda W J H Penninx
- Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Shuiyuan Xiao
- Central South University Xiangya School of Public Health, Changsha, China
| | - Madhukar Trivedi
- Peter O'Donnell Jr Brain Institute and the Department of Psychiatry, The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA
| | - Rudolf Uher
- Department of Psychiatry, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
| | - Lakshmi Vijayakumar
- Sneha, Suicide Prevention Centre and Voluntary Health Services, Chennai, India
| | | |
Collapse
|
7
|
Kessler RC, Furukawa TA, Kato T, Luedtke A, Petukhova M, Sadikova E, Sampson NA. An individualized treatment rule to optimize probability of remission by continuation, switching, or combining antidepressant medications after failing a first-line antidepressant in a two-stage randomized trial. Psychol Med 2021; 52:1-10. [PMID: 33682648 DOI: 10.1017/s0033291721000027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is growing interest in using composite individualized treatment rules (ITRs) to guide depression treatment selection, but best approaches for doing this are not widely known. We develop an ITR for depression remission based on secondary analysis of a recently published trial for second-line antidepression medication selection using a cutting-edge ensemble machine learning method. METHODS Data come from the SUN(^_^)D trial, an open-label, assessor blinded pragmatic trial of previously-untreated patients with major depressive disorder from 48 clinics in Japan. Initial clinic-level randomization assigned patients to 50 or 100 mg/day sertraline. We focus on the 1549 patients who failed to remit within 3 weeks and were then rerandomized at the individual-level to continuation with sertraline, switching to mirtazapine, or combining mirtazapine with sertraline. The outcome was remission 9 weeks post-baseline. Predictors included socio-demographics, clinical characteristics, baseline symptoms, changes in symptoms between baseline and week 3, and week 3 side effects. RESULTS Optimized treatment was associated with significantly increased cross-validated week 9 remission rates in both samples [5.3% (2.4%), p = 0.016 50 mg/day sample; 5.1% (2.7%), p = 0.031 100 mg/day sample] compared to randomization (30.1-30.8%). Optimization was also associated with significantly increased remission in both samples compared to continuation [24.7% in both: 11.2% (3.8%), p = 0.002 50 mg/day sample; 11.7% (3.9%), p = 0.001 100 mg/day sample]. Non-significant gains were found for optimization compared to switching or combining. CONCLUSIONS An ITR can be developed to improve second-line antidepressant selection, but replication in a larger study with more comprehensive baseline predictors might produce stronger and more stable results.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ronald C Kessler
- Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Toshi A Furukawa
- Department of Health Promotion and Human Behavior, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | - Alex Luedtke
- Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Maria Petukhova
- Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Ekaterina Sadikova
- Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Nancy A Sampson
- Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
van Vugt VA, Heymans MW, van der Wouden JC, van der Horst HE, Maarsingh OR. Treatment success of internet-based vestibular rehabilitation in general practice: development and internal validation of a prediction model. BMJ Open 2020; 10:e038649. [PMID: 33067287 PMCID: PMC7569931 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038649] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To develop and internally validate prediction models to assess treatment success of both stand-alone and blended online vestibular rehabilitation (VR) in patients with chronic vestibular syndrome. DESIGN Secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial. SETTING 59 general practices in The Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS 202 adults, aged 50 years and older with a chronic vestibular syndrome who received either stand-alone VR (98) or blended VR (104). Stand-alone VR consisted of a 6-week, internet-based intervention with weekly online sessions and daily exercises. In blended VR, the same intervention was supplemented with physiotherapy support. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Successful treatment was defined as: clinically relevant improvement of (1) vestibular symptoms (≥3 points improvement Vertigo Symptom Scale-Short Form); (2) vestibular-related disability (>11 points improvement Dizziness Handicap Inventory); and (3) both vestibular symptoms and vestibular-related disability. We assessed performance of the predictive models by applying calibration plots, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and applied internal validation. RESULTS Improvement of vestibular symptoms, vestibular-related disability or both was seen in 121, 81 and 64 participants, respectively. We generated predictive models for each outcome, resulting in different predictors in the final models. Calibration for all models was adequate with non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, but the discriminative ability of the final predictive models was poor (AUC 0.54 to 0.61). None of the identified models are therefore suitable for use in daily general practice to predict treatment success of online VR. CONCLUSION It is difficult to predict treatment success of internet-based VR and it remains unclear who should be treated with stand-alone VR or blended VR. Because we were unable to develop a useful prediction model, the decision to offer stand-alone or blended VR should for now be based on availability, cost effectiveness and patient preference. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER The Netherlands Trial Register NTR5712.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Vincent A van Vugt
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Martijn W Heymans
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Noord-Holland, The Netherlands
| | - Johannes C van der Wouden
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Henriëtte E van der Horst
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Otto R Maarsingh
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|