Predicting Future Health Transitions Among Newly Admitted Nursing Home Residents With Heart Failure

Long-Term Care Resident Health and Quality of Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Synthesis Analysis of Canadian Institute for Health Information Data Tables

Objective

Long-term care (LTC) homes ("nursing homes") were challenged during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada. The objective of this study was to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on resident admission and discharge rates, resident health attributes, treatments, and quality of care.

Design

Synthesis analysis of "Quick Stats" standardized data table reports published yearly by the Canadian Institute for Health Information. These reports are a pan-Canadian scorecard of LTC services rendered, resident health characteristics, and quality indicator performance.

Setting and participants

LTC home residents in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario, Canada that were assessed with the interRAI Minimum Data Set 2.0 comprehensive health assessment in fiscal years 2018/2019, 2019/2020 (pre-pandemic period), and 2020/2021 (pandemic period).

Methods

Risk ratio statistics were calculated to compare admission and discharge rates, validated interRAI clinical summary scale scores, medication, therapy and treatment provision, and seventeen risk-adjusted quality indicator rates from the pandemic period relative to prior fiscal years.

Results

Risk of dying in the LTC home was greater in all provinces (risk ratio [RR] range 1.06-1.18) during the pandemic. Quality of care worsened substantially on 6 of 17 quality indicators in British Columbia and Ontario, and 2 quality indicators in Manitoba and Alberta. The only quality indicator where performance worsened during the pandemic in all provinces was the percentage of residents that received antipsychotic medications without a diagnosis of psychosis (RR range 1.01-1.09).

Conclusions and implications

The COVID-19 pandemic has unveiled numerous areas to strengthen LTC and ensure that resident's physical, social, and psychological needs are addressed during public health emergencies. Except an increase in potentially inappropriate antipsychotic use, this provincial-level analysis indicates that most aspects of resident care were maintained during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Changes in Urinary Continence After Admission to a Complex Care Setting: A Multistate Transition Model

OBJECTIVES

To examine changes in urinary continence for post-acute, Complex Continuing Care hospital patients from time of admission to short-term follow-up, either in hospital or after discharge to long-term care or home with services.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of patients in Complex Continuing Care hospitals using clinical data collected with interRAI Minimum Data Set 2.0 and interRAI Resident Assessment Instrument Home Care.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 18 years and older, admitted to Complex Continuing Care hospitals in Ontario, Canada, between 2009 and 2015 (n = 78,913).

METHODS

A multistate transition model was used to characterize the association between patient characteristics measured at admission and changes in urinary continence state transitions (continent, sometimes continent, and incontinent) between admission and follow-up.

RESULTS

The cohort included 27,896 patients. At admission, 9583 (34.3%) patients belonged to the continent state, 6441 (23.09%) patients belonged to the sometimes incontinent state, and the remaining 11,872 (42.6%) patients belonged to the incontinent state. For patients who were continent at admission, the majority (62.7%) remained continent at follow-up. However, nearly a quarter (23.9%) transitioned to the sometimes continent state, and an additional 13.4% became incontinent at follow-up. Several factors were associated with continence state transitions, including cognitive impairment, rehabilitation potential, stroke, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, and hip fracture.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This study suggests that urinary incontinence is a prevalent problem for Complex Continuing Care hospital patients and multiple factors are associated with continence state transitions. Standardized assessment of urinary incontinence is helpful in this setting to identify patients in need of further assessment and patient-centered intervention and as a quality improvement metric to examine changes in continence from admission to discharge.

TILE-12 index: an interpretable instrument for identifying older adults at risk for transitions in living environment within the next 12-months

Few evidence-based tools exist to support identification of older community dwelling adults at risk for unwanted transitions in living environment leading to missed opportunities to modify care plans to support aging-in-place and/or establish end-of-life care goals. An interpretable and actionable tool for assessing a person's risk of experiencing a transition is introduced. Logistic regression analysis of 14,772 transition opportunities (i.e. 12-month periods) for 4,431 respondents to the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) rounds 1-7. Results were visualized in a nomogram. Unmarried males of increasing age with chronic disease, greater functional dependence, overnight hospitalizations, not living in a single-family home, and limited social network, have elevated risk of experiencing a transition in living environment in a 12-month period. Homecare nurses are uniquely qualified to identify social determinants of health and can use this evidence-based tool to identify individuals who may benefit from transitional care assistance.

Outcomes of advance care directives after admission to a long-term care home: DNR the DNH?

Background

Residents of long-term care homes (LTCH) often experience unnecessary and non-beneficial hospitalizations and interventions near the end-of-life. Advance care directives aim to ensure that end-of-life care respects resident needs and wishes.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we used multistate models to examine the health trajectories associated with Do-Not-Resuscitate (DNR) and Do-Not-Hospitalize (DNH) directives of residents admitted to LTCH in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia, Canada. We adjusted for baseline frailty-related health instability. We considered three possible end states: change in health, hospitalization, or death. For measurements, we used standardized RAI-MDS 2.0 LTCH assessments linked to hospital records from 2010 to 2015.

Results

We report on 123,003 LTCH residents. The prevalence of DNR and DNH directives was 71 and 26% respectively. Both directives were associated with increased odds of transitioning to a state of greater health instability and death, and decreased odds of hospitalization. The odds of hospitalization in the presence of a DNH directive were lowered, but not eliminated, with odds of 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.65–0.69), 0.63 (0.61–0.65), and 0.47 (0.43–0.52) for residents with low, moderate and high health instability, respectively.

Conclusion

Even though both DNR and DNH orders are associated with serious health outcomes, DNH directives were not frequently used and often overturned. We suggest that policies recommending DNH directives be re-evaluated, with greater emphasis on advance care planning that better reflects resident values and wishes.

Assessments of heart failure and frailty-related health instability provide complementary and useful information for home care planning and prognosis

BACKGROUND

Health instability, measured with the Changes in Health and End-stage disease Signs and Symptoms (CHESS) scale, predicts hospitalizations and mortality in home care clients. Heart failure (HF) is also common among home care clients. We seek to understand how HF contributes to the odds of death, hospitalization or worsening health among new home care clients depending on admission health instability.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective cohort study of home care clients aged 65 years and older between January 1st 2010 and March 31st 2015 from Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario, and the Yukon, Canada. We used multistate Markov models to derive adjusted odds ratios (OR) for transitions to different health instability states, hospitalization, and death. We examined the role of HF and CHESS at 6 months after home care admission.

RESULTS

The sample included 286,232 clients. Those with HF had greater odds of worsening health instability than those without HF. At low-moderate admission health instability (CHESS 0-2), clients with HF had greater odds of hospitalization and death than those without HF. Clients with HF and high health instability (CHESS≥3) had slightly greater odds of hospitalization (OR 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval 1.02-1.13) but similar odds of death (OR 1.024, 95% CI 0.937-1.120) compared to clients without HF.

CONCLUSIONS

Among new home care clients, a HF diagnosis predicts death, hospitalization and worsening health, predominantly among those with low-moderate admission health instability. A HF diagnosis and admission CHESS score provide complementary information to support care planning in this population.

Facility and resident characteristics associated with variation in nursing home transfers: evidence from the OPTIMISTIC demonstration project

BACKGROUND

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) funded demonstration project to evaluate financial incentives for nursing facilities providing care for 6 clinical conditions to reduce potentially avoidable hospitalizations (PAHs). The Optimizing Patient Transfers, Impacting Medical Quality, and Improving Symptoms: Transforming Institutional Care (OPTIMISTIC) site tested payment incentives alone and in combination with the successful nurse-led OPTIMISTIC clinical model. Our objective was to identify facility and resident characteristics associated with transfers, including financial incentives with or without the clinical model.

METHODS

This was a longitudinal analysis from April 2017 to June 2018 of transfers among nursing home residents in 40 nursing facilities, 17 had the full clinical + payment model (1726 residents) and 23 had payment only model (2142 residents). Using CMS claims data, the Minimum Data Set, and Nursing Home Compare, multilevel logit models estimated the likelihood of all-cause transfers and PAHs (based on CMS claims data and ICD-codes) associated with facility and resident characteristics.

RESULTS

The clinical + payment model was associated with 4.1 percentage points (pps) lower risk of all-cause transfers (95% confidence interval [CI] - 6.2 to - 2.1). Characteristics associated with lower PAH risk included residents aged 95+ years (- 2.4 pps; 95% CI - 3.8 to - 1.1), Medicare-Medicaid dual-eligibility (- 2.5 pps; 95% CI - 3.3 to - 1.7), advanced and moderate cognitive impairment (- 3.3 pps; 95% CI - 4.4 to - 2.1; - 1.2 pps; 95% CI - 2.2 to - 0.2). Changes in Health, End-stage disease and Symptoms and Signs (CHESS) score above most stable (CHESS score 4) increased the risk of PAH by 7.3 pps (95% CI 1.5 to 13.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple resident and facility characteristics are associated with transfers. Facilities with the clinical + payment model demonstrated lower risk of all-cause transfers compared to those with payment only, but not for PAHs.

Applying the Knowledge-to-Action Framework to Engage Stakeholders and Solve Shared Challenges with Person-Centered Advance Care Planning in Long-Term Care Homes

As they near the end of life, long term care (LTC) residents often experience unmet needs and unnecessary hospital transfers, a reflection of suboptimal advance care planning (ACP). We applied the knowledge-to-action framework to identify shared barriers and solutions to ultimately improve the process of ACP and improve end-of-life care for LTC residents. We held a 1-day workshop for LTC residents, families, directors/administrators, ethicists, and clinicians from Manitoba, Alberta, and Ontario. The workshop aimed to identify: (1) shared understandings of ACP, (2) barriers to respecting resident wishes, and (3) solutions to better respect resident wishes. Plenary and group sessions were recorded and thematic analysis was performed. We identified four themes: (1) differing provincial frameworks, (2) shared challenges, (3) knowledge products, and 4) ongoing ACP. Theme 2 had four subthemes: (i) lacking clarity on substitute decision maker (SDM) identity, (ii) lacking clarity on the SDM role, (iii) failing to share sufficient information when residents formulate care wishes, and (iv) failing to communicate during a health crisis. These results have informed the development of a standardized ACP intervention currently being evaluated in a randomized trial in three Canadian provinces.

Using a Semi-Markov Model to Estimate Medicaid Cost Savings due to Minnesota's Return to Community Initiative

OBJECTIVES

To provide an estimate and level of uncertainty for Medicaid cost savings due to Minnesota's Return to Community Initiative (RTCI).

DESIGN

Medicaid cost savings are estimated using a semi-Markov model and simulation approach.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

RTCI is a statewide program that assists private paying nursing home residents with discharge to the community. When originally proposed, it was expected that the program would reduce state Medicaid expenditures, primarily through the shifting of residents from nursing homes to a less costly community setting. In prior analysis, we estimated that approximately 1 in 9 residents targeted for transition by the program would not have returned to the community without the RTCI. Accurate cost savings estimates require consideration of complex resident care trajectories, that is, nursing home readmissions, use of assisted living and community-based services, and mortality.

MEASURES

Data were from 30,234 private pay nursing home residents admitted during 2011, primarily for post-acute stays, to 378 facilities in Minnesota, and followed for 4 years postadmission for outcomes and time to event. Resident characteristics were taken from the Minimum Data Set (MDS) admission assessment. We modeled variability in care trajectories with a semi-Markov formulation. Transition probabilities were estimated using Multinomial regression. Time to event was modeled using the best-fitting, positive, right-skewed distribution for each path. The simulation was run (1000 times) with and without the RTCI impact to estimate change in Medicaid days in various settings.

RESULTS

Program savings was estimated at $4.1 million per year of effort over a 4-year accumulation period.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

The RTCI produced a modest Medicaid cost savings in excess of the annual program budget of $3.5 million. Findings from the semi-Markov model and simulation increase our understanding of care transitions between nursing home, community, Medicaid status, and mortality.

Risk of Hospitalization in Long-Term Care Residents Living with Heart Failure: a Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Older adults living with heart failure (HF) in long-term care (LTC) experience frequent hospitalization. Using routinely available clinical information, we examined resident-level factors that precipitate hospitalization within 90 days of admission to LTC.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of older adults diagnosed with HF, who were admitted to LTC in Ontario, Canada, between 2011 and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations were developed to determine predictors of hospitalization in residents with HF.

RESULTS

Entry to LTC from a hospital was the strongest predictor of future hospitalization (OR: 8.1, 95% CI: 7.1-9.3), followed by a score of three or greater on the Changes in Health, End-stage Signs and Symptoms scale, a measure of moderate to severe medical instability (O.R 4.2, 95% CI: 3.1-5.9). Other variables that increased the likelihood of hospitalization included being flagged as a high risk for falls, two or more physician visits, and increased monitoring for acute medical illness within 14 days of admission.

CONCLUSION

Our findings highlight that health instability and transitions from acute to LTC will increase the likelihood of transitioning back into the hospital setting. The identified predisposing factors suggest the need for targeted prevention strategies for those in high-risk groups.

Evidence-Based Practice Guideline: Assessing Heart Failure in Long-Term Care Facilities

Evidence suggests the most crucial elements to successful heart failure (HF) management in long-term care (LTC) include improving staffs' HF knowledge to recognize and intervene in early symptom exacerbations, embedding an effective and integrated interprofessional communication system into daily care processes, risk stratification, and anticipatory advanced care planning. Despite a large body of evidence describing best practices, quality HF management remains elusive in LTC facilities. Studies have shown that care quality and outcomes improve when the entire team, including direct caregivers, have an active role in residents' care planning and implementation. The current article summarizes a revised evidence-based practice guideline on assessing HF, addressing a systematic approach to care delivery, and implementing evidence-based best practices for HF quality improvement initiatives in LTC, post-acute care, and short-term rehabilitation settings. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 45(7), 18-24.].