Morbidity Measures Predicting Mortality in Inpatients: A Systematic Review

Development and testing of a four-item version of the physical resilience instrument for older adults (PRIFOR-4)

The 16-item Physical Resilience Instrument for Older Adults (PRIFOR) has good clinimetric properties; however, a shortened PRIFOR would greatly enhance physical resilience measurements in clinical settings. The current analysis aimed to reduce the number of PRIFOR while maintaining its clinimetric properties, emphasizing on its factor structure and convergent validity. A longitudinal study was conducted among 863 patients aged 65 years or older. Four PRIFOR items with high factor loadings were selected to generate the short version of PRIFOR (PRIFOR-4). The PRIFOR-4 was found to have a unidimensional structure (comparative fit index = 0.999; Tucker-Lewis index = 0.998 in the confirmatory factor analysis results) with good convergent validity with various external measures (absolute r = 0.109-0.597; p-values<0.01). Because the PRIFOR-4 contains only four items, the completion time for the respondents reduced three fourths from the original PRIFOR, which may have a marked reduction in the response burden. The PRIFOR-4 is thus an easy-to-use measurement that saves time for healthcare professionals in clinical practice.

Predictors of Hospital Readmission, Institutionalization, and Mortality in Geriatric Rehabilitation Following Hospitalization According to Admission Reason

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Older adults following an inpatient geriatric rehabilitation (GR) program commonly experience adverse health outcomes such as hospital readmission, institutionalization, and mortality. Although several studies have explored factors related to these outcomes, the influence of admission reason on the predictive factors of adverse health outcomes in the rehabilitation process remains unclear. Therefore, this study aimed to identify predictive factors for adverse health outcomes in inpatients attending GR according to their admission reason.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with orthogeriatric (OG) conditions and patients with hospital-associated deconditioning (HAD) admitted to GR after an acute hospitalization between 2016 and 2020. Patients were evaluated by a comprehensive geriatric assessment at admission, including sociodemographic data, social resources, clinical data, cognitive, functional and nutritional status, and physical performance measurements. Adverse health outcomes were collected (hospital readmission, institutionalization, and mortality). Univariate analyses and multivariate backward binary logistic regressions were used to determine predictive factors.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

In this study, 290 patients were admitted for OG conditions, and 122 patients were admitted due to HAD. In patients with OG conditions, lower Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) predicted institutionalization and mortality. Lower Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form predicted institutionalization, whereas lower Barthel Index and lower Tinetti-Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment scores were associated with higher mortality. In patients with HAD, higher age-adjusted comorbidity index predicted hospital readmission and mortality, and lower Short Physical Performance Battery scores predicted institutionalization and mortality. Finally, lower MMSE scores, worse values in Older Americans Resources and Services Scale and male gender were associated with a higher risk of institutionalization.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive factors for hospital readmission, institutionalization, and mortality in patients with OG conditions and HAD during GR were different. Some of those predictors, such as nutritional status and physical performance, are modifiable. Understanding predictive factors for adverse outcomes, and how these factors differ by admission diagnosis, improves our ability to identify patients most at risk. Early identification of these patients could assist with prevention efforts and lead to a reduction of negative outcomes.

Association between depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality in Chilean adult population: prospective results from two national health surveys

PURPOSE

Depression is a prevalent disorder with effects beyond mental health. A positive association with mortality has been mostly reported, however, evidence comes from a few high-income countries. This study aims to assess the association between depressive symptoms and all-cause mortality in the Chilean population and assess a potential secular effect in this association.

METHODS

This prospective study used data from the Chilean National Health Survey (CNHS). Data from 3151 and 3749 participants from the 2003 and 2010 CNHS, respectively, were linked to mortality register data. Cox survival analysis was performed. The main exposure was depressive symptoms, measured with CIDI-SF (cut-off ≥ 5), and the outcome all-cause mortality. The study period was limited to 8.5 years to allow for the same length of follow-up.

RESULTS

10% and 8.5% of participants from the 2003 and 2010 cohort died during the follow-up. Adjusting for age and sex, those with depressive symptoms had 1.58 (95% CI 1.18-2.13) and 1.65 (95% CI 1.14-2.12) times the risk to die than those without symptoms in the 2003 and 2010 cohort, respectively. In models adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, behavioural variables and comorbidities, participants with depressive symptoms had 1.42 (95% CI 1.05-1.92) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.07-- 1.99) times the risk to die compared to those without symptoms in the 2003 and 2010 cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Chilean adults with depressive symptoms are at higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to those without symptoms. The effect size was similar regardless of the economic development of the country.

THE THERAPEUTIC EFFICACY OF PLASMAPHERESIS FOR SEPSIS WITH MULTIPLE ORGAN FAILURE: A PROPENSITY SCORE-MATCHED ANALYSIS BASED ON THE MIMIC-IV DATABASE

ABSTRACT

Background: Despite advancements in sepsis treatment, mortality remains high. Plasmapheresis (PE) targeting multiple pathways simultaneously seems to be a potential treatment option, but evidence is insufficient. We aimed to investigate the efficacy of PE for sepsis with multiple organ failure (MOF). Method: Septic patients with MOF were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. Patients who received PE were matched with those receiving conventional therapy via propensity score matching. Regression analyses evaluated the association between PE and outcomes. The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method was used to analyze the survival probability. The generalized additive mixed model investigated early indexes changes' association with treatment modalities and 28-day mortality. Results: Nine hundred six septic patients with MOF were enrolled. After propensity score matching, PE and conventional groups consisted of 60 cases each. Plasmapheresis was associated with a reduced risk of 28-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-0.94), 1-year mortality (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.26-0.74), and in-hospital mortality (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.20-0.71). The KM curves demonstrated significant differences in survival probability between groups. Compared with the conventional group, the sequential organ failure assessment, norepinephrine dosage, prothrombin time, actate dehydrogenase, total bilirubin, white blood cells, and immature granulocytes in the PE group significantly decreased over time, while platelets, red blood cells, and hemoglobin significantly increased over time. Conclusions: Plasmapheresis demonstrated an association with reduced risks of 28-day, in-hospital and 1-year mortality in septic patients with MOF. Moreover, plasmapheresis might exhibit the potential to improve outcomes by improving organ function, hemodynamics, and restoring several indicators, such as coagulation, anemia, and inflammation.

Comparing Charlson Comorbidity Index Scores between Anesthesiologists, Patients, and Administrative Data: A Prospective Observational Study

(1) Background: Patients' comorbidities play an immanent role in perioperative risk assessment. It is unknown how Charlson Comorbidity Indices (CCIs) from different sources compare. (2) Methods: In this prospective observational study, we compared the CCIs of patients derived from patients' self-reports and from physicians' assessments with hospital administrative data. (3) Results: The data of 1007 patients was analyzed. Agreement between the CCI from patients' self-report compared to administrative data was fair (kappa 0.24 [95%CI 0.2-0.28]). Agreement between physicians' assessment and the administrative data was also fair (kappa 0.28 [95%CI 0.25-0.31]). Physicians' assessment and patients' self-report had the best agreement (kappa 0.33 [95%CI 0.30-0.37]). The CCI calculated from the administrative data showed the best predictability for in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.86 [95%CI 0.68-0.91]), followed by equally good prediction from physicians' assessment (AUROC 0.80 [95%CI 0.65-0.94]) and patients' self-report (AUROC 0.80 [95%CI 0.75-0.97]). (4) Conclusions: CCIs derived from patients' self-report, physicians' assessments, and administrative data perform equally well in predicting postoperative in-hospital mortality.

Combining the Hospital Frailty Risk Score With the Charlson and Elixhauser Multimorbidity Indices to Identify Older Patients at Risk of Poor Outcomes in Acute Care

OBJECTIVE

The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) can be applied to medico-administrative datasets to determine the risks of 30-day mortality and long length of stay (LOS) in hospitalized older patients. The objective of this study was to compare the HFRS with Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices, used separately or combined.

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of the French medical information database. The HFRS, Charlson index, and Elixhauser index were calculated for each patient based on the index stay and hospitalizations over the preceding 2 years. Different constructions of the HFRS were considered based on overlapping diagnostic codes with either Charlson or Elixhauser indices. We used mixed logistic regression models to investigate the association between outcomes, different constructions of HFRS, and associations with comorbidity indices.

SETTING

743 hospitals in France.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients aged 75 years or older hospitalized as an emergency in 2017 (n=1,042,234).Main outcome measures: 30-day inpatient mortality and LOS >10 days.

RESULTS

The HFRS, Charlson, and Elixhauser indices were comparably associated with an increased risk of 30-day inpatient mortality and long LOS. The combined model with the highest c-statistic was obtained when associating the HFRS with standard adjustment and Charlson for 30-day inpatient mortality (adjusted c-statistics: HFRS=0.654; HFRS + Charlson = 0.676) and with Elixhauser for long LOS (adjusted c-statistics: HFRS= 0.672; HFRS + Elixhauser =0.698).

CONCLUSIONS

Combining comorbidity indices and HFRS may improve discrimination for predicting long LOS in hospitalized older people, but adds little to Charlson's 30-day inpatient mortality risk.

Validation and Comparison of Four Mortality Prediction Models in a Geriatric Ward in China

Purpose

The efficacy of mortality risk prediction models among older patients in China remains uncertain. We aimed to validate and compare the performances of the Walter Index, Geriatric Prognostic Index (GPI), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and FRAIL Scale in predicting 1-year all-cause mortality post-discharge in geriatric inpatients in China.

Patients and Methods

This study was conducted at a geriatric ward of a tertiary Hospital in Beijing, including patients aged 70 years or older with a documented comprehensive geriatric assessment, discharged between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2021. Patients with a hospital stay ≤24 h or >60 days were excluded. All-cause mortality data within one year of discharge were collected from medical files and telephone interviews between August 2022 and February 2023. Multiple imputation, Logistic regression analysis, Brier scores, C-statistics, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit-test, and calibration plots were employed for statistical analysis.

Results

We included 832 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 77 (74-82) years. One-hundred patients (12.0%) died within one year. After adjusting for covariates-marital status, social support, cigarette use, length of stay, number of medications, hemoglobin levels, handgrip strength, and Short Physical Performance Battery-CCI scores of 3-4 and >4, and increased Walter Index, GPI, and FRAIL Scale scores were significantly associated with 1-year mortality risk. The Brier scores varied from 0.07 (Walter Index) to 0.10 (FRAIL Scale). The C-statistic ranged from 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.78) for FRAIL Scale to 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.91) for the Walter Index. Calibration curves showed that the Walter Index, GPI, and FRAIL Scale were well calibrated, while the CCI was poor.

Conclusion

Combining the Brier score, discrimination and calibration, the Walter Index was confirmed for the first time to be the best model to predict the 1-year mortality risk of geriatric inpatients in China among the four models.

Textbook Outcome after Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer Is Associated with Improved Overall and Disease-Free Survival

(1) Background: The complexity of the perioperative outcome for patients with gastric cancer is not well reflected by single quality metrics. To study the effect of the surgical outcome on survival, we have evaluated the relationship between textbook outcome (TO)-a new composite parameter-and oncological outcome. (2) Methods: All patients undergoing total gastrectomy or trans-hiatal extended gastrectomy for gastric cancer with curative intent between 2017 and 2021 at our institution were included. TO was defined by negative resection margins (R0); collection of ≥25 lymph nodes; the absence of major perioperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3); the absence of any reintervention; absence of unplanned ICU re-admission; length of hospital stay < 21 days; absence of 30-day readmission and 30-day mortality. We evaluated factors affecting TO by multivariate logistic regression. The correlation between TO and long-term survival was assessed using a multivariate cox proportional-hazards model. (3) Results: Of the patients included in this study, 52 (52.5 %) achieved all TO metrics. Open surgery (p = 0.010; OR 3.715, CI 1.334-10.351) and incomplete neoadjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.020, OR 4.278, CI 1.176-15.553) were associated with failure to achieve TO on multivariate analysis. The achievement of TO significantly affected overall survival (p = 0.015). TO (p = 0.037, OD 0.448, CI 0.211-0.954) and CCI > 4 (p = 0.034, OR 2.844, CI 1.079-7.493) were significant factors affecting DFS upon univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, CCI > 4 (p = 0.035, OR 2.605, CI 0.983-6.905) was significantly associated with DFS. (4) Conclusions: We identified patient- and procedure-related factors influencing TO. Importantly, achieving TO is strongly associated with improved long-term survival in gastric cancer patients and merits further focus on surgical quality improvement efforts.

Evaluation of "Care Plus," A Multidisciplinary Program to Improve Population Health for Patients With High Utilization

With rising health care costs, health systems have adopted alternative care models targeting high-need, high-cost patients to improve chronic disease management and population health. Intensive primary care teams may reduce health care utilization by tackling medical and psychosocial needs specific to this patient population. This study presents health care utilization trends from a high-intensity primary care program that employs a multidisciplinary team (including clinicians, psychologists, pharmacists, chaplaincy, and community health workers) and community partnerships. Using descriptive statistics and Poisson rates of differences, this study evaluates patient and utilization characteristics of those enrolled (n = 341) versus declined (n = 54) program participation from 2013 to 2020. Both enrolled and declined patients experienced significant reduction in emergency department and inpatient utilization, but differences between enrolled and declined patients were not statistically significant. Programs aimed at decreasing health care utilization for high-need, high-cost, medically complex patients may be best supported by interventions that simultaneously address social and behavioral health needs.

Medications for Chronic Conditions and Mortality in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

With the population aging, examining the relationship between polypharmacy and mortality based on population data sources is important for clinical management and policy direction.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the association between the number of chronic medications and the risk of mortality in older adults.

METHODS

This population-based retrospective cohort study used data from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan for information regarding chronic medication use (over 4 years) in older adults aged 65 years and older. The association between medication use and mortality numbers was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for demographic variables and comorbidity.

RESULTS

The number of medications was significantly associated with high mortality risk. Within polypharmacy, being 65-74 years old, male, living in northern Taiwan, having one type of comorbid disease, and receiving <84 days of refillable chronic prescription were associated with greater mortality risk. Subgroup analyses' results regarding comorbidity showed significant positive associations between the number of medications and mortality in most comorbid diseases except for mental disorders and diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue.

DISCUSSION

General practitioners should know that chronic polypharmacy is associated with increased mortality risk. Recognizing the possible adverse effects of multiple medication use could help physicians optimize drug regimens in the future.

Review of the utility of routine mortality reviews among deaths on General Internal Medicine wards in a Canadian tertiary care hospital

Background

Hospital morbidity and mortality reviews are common quality assurance activities, intended to uncover latent or unrecognised systemic issues that contribute to preventable adverse events and patient harm. Mortality reviews may be routinely mandated by hospital policy or for accreditation purposes. However, patients under the care of certain specialties, such as general internal medicine (GIM), are affected by a substantial burden of chronic disease, advanced age, frailty or limited life expectancy. Many of their deaths could be viewed as reasonably foreseeable, and unrelated to poor-quality care.

Methods

We sought to determine how frequently postmortem chart reviews for hospitalised GIM patients at our tertiary care centre in Canada would uncover patient safety or quality of care issues that directly led to these patients’ deaths. We reviewed the charts of all patients who died while admitted to the GIM admitting service over a 12-month time period between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2021.

Results

We found that in only 2% of cases was a clinical adverse event detected that directly contributed to a poor or unexpected outcome for the patient, and of those cases, more than half were related to unfortunate nosocomial transmission of COVID-19 infection.

Conclusion

Due to an overall low yield, we discourage routine mortality chart reviews for general medical patients, and instead suggest that organisations focus on strategies to recognise and capture safety incidents that may not necessarily result in death.

Association between dysglycemia and the Charlson Comorbidity Index among hospitalized patients with diabetes

AIM

Inpatient dysglycemia has been linked to short-term mortality, but longer-term mortality data are lacking. Our aim was to evaluate the association between inpatient dysglycemia and one-year mortality risk.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review of adults with diabetes hospitalized between 2015 and 2019. The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was used to estimate 1-year mortality risk, stratified into low (CCI ≤ 5) and high risk (CCI ≥6). Simple and multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between dysglycemic measures and high mortality risk.

RESULTS

Among 22,639 unique admissions, BG ≥ 180, ≥300, ≤70, <54 and <40 mg/dL were associated with adjusted odds of 1.43 (95 % CI, 1.33, 1.54), 1.58 (95 % CI, 1.48, 1.68), 2.16 (95 % CI, 2.01, 2.32), 2.58 (95 % CI, 2.32, 2.86), and 2.56 (95 % CI, 2.19, 2.99) for high mortality risk, respectively. Older age and Black race were positively associated with hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia. Myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure (CHF), and moderate to severe liver disease were most strongly associated with hyperglycemia, while renal disease, CHF, peripheral vascular disease, and peptic ulcer disease were most strongly associated with hypoglycemia.

CONCLUSIONS

Inpatient hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia were both positively associated with higher one-year mortality risk, with stronger magnitude of association observed for hypoglycemia. The association appears to be mediated mainly by presence of diabetes-related complications.

Predictors for the Transitions of Poor Clinical Outcomes Among Geriatric Rehabilitation Inpatients

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the associations of morbidity burden and frailty with the transitions between functional decline, institutionalization, and mortality.

DESIGN

REStORing health of acutely unwell adulTs (RESORT) is an ongoing observational, longitudinal inception cohort and commenced on October 15, 2017. Consented patients were followed for 3 months postdischarge.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive geriatric rehabilitation inpatients admitted to geriatric rehabilitation wards.

METHODS

Patients' morbidity burden was assessed at admission using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS). Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and modified Frailty Index based on laboratory tests (mFI-lab). A multistate model was applied at 4 time points: 2 weeks preadmission, admission, and discharge from geriatric rehabilitation and 3 months postdischarge, with the following outcomes: functional decline, institutionalization, and mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to investigate the associations of morbidity burden and frailty with the transitions between outcomes.

RESULTS

The 1890 included inpatients had a median age of 83.4 (77.6-88.4) years, and 56.3% were female. A higher CCI score was associated with a greater risk of transitions from preadmission and declined functional performance to mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.28, 95% CI 1.03-1.59; HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.04-1.67]. A higher CIRS score was associated with a higher risk of not recovering from functional decline (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.93). A higher CFS score was associated with a greater risk of transitions from preadmission and declined functional performance to institutionalization (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.10-1.49; HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.44) and mortality (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01-1.33; HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.003-1.31). The mFI-lab was not associated with any of the transitions. None of the morbidity measures or frailty assessment tools were associated with the transitions from institutionalization to other outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This study demonstrates that greater frailty severity, assessed using the CFS, is a significant risk factor for poor clinical outcomes and demonstrates the importance of implementing it in the geriatric rehabilitation setting.

Malnutrition and Poor Physical Function Are Associated With Higher Comorbidity Index in Hospitalized Older Adults

Background

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is the most widely used method to measure comorbidity and predict mortality. There is no evidence whether malnutrition and/or poor physical function are associated with higher CCI in hospitalized patients. Therefore, this study aimed to (i) analyze the association between the CCI with nutritional status and with physical function of hospitalized older adults and (ii) examine the individual and combined associations of nutritional status and physical function of older inpatients with comorbidity risk.

Methods

A total of 597 hospitalized older adults (84.3 ± 6.8 years, 50.3% women) were assessed for CCI, nutritional status (the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form [MNA-SF]), and physical function (handgrip strength and the Short Physical Performance Battery [SPPB]).

Results

Better nutritional status (p < 0.05) and performance with handgrip strength and the SPPB were significantly associated with lower CCI scores among both men (p < 0.005) and women (p < 0.001). Patients with malnutrition or risk of malnutrition (OR: 2.165, 95% CI: 1.408–3.331, p < 0.001) as well as frailty (OR: 3.918, 95% CI: 2.326–6.600, p < 0.001) had significantly increased the risk for being at severe risk of comorbidity. Patients at risk of malnutrition or that are malnourished had higher CCI scores regardless of being fit or unfit according to handgrip strength (p for trend < 0.05), and patients classified as frail had higher CCI despite their nutritional status (p for trend < 0.001).

Conclusions

The current study reinforces the use of the MNA-SF and the SPPB in geriatric hospital patients as they might help to predict poor clinical outcomes and thus indirectly predict post-discharge mortality risk.

Frailty and In-Hospital Mortality Risk Using EHR Nursing Data

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to evaluate four definitions of a Frailty Risk Score (FRS) derived from EHR data that includes combinations of biopsychosocial risk factors using nursing flowsheet data or International Classification of Disease, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes and blood biomarkers and its predictive properties for in-hospital mortality in adults ≥50 years admitted to medical-surgical units. Methods In this retrospective observational study and secondary analysis of an EHR dataset, survival analysis and Cox regression models were performed with sociodemographic and clinical covariates. Integrated area under the ROC curve (iAUC) across follow-up time based on Cox modeling was estimated. Results The 46,645 patients averaged 1.5 hospitalizations (SD = 1.1) over the study period and 63.3% were emergent admissions. The average age was 70.4 years (SD = 11.4), 55.3% were female, 73.0% were non-Hispanic White (73.0%), mean comorbidity score was 3.9 (SD = 2.9), 80.5% were taking 1.5 high risk medications, and 42% recorded polypharmacy. The best performing FRS-NF-26-LABS included nursing flowsheet data and blood biomarkers (Adj. HR = 1.30, 95% CI [1.28, 1.33]), with good accuracy (iAUC = .794); the reduced model with age, sex, and FRS only demonstrated similar accuracy. The poorest performance was the ICD-10 code-based FRS. Conclusion The FRS captures information about the patient that increases risk for in-hospital mortality not accounted for by other factors. Identification of frailty enables providers to enhance various aspects of care, including increased monitoring, applying more intensive, individualized resources, and initiating more informed discussions about treatments and discharge planning.

Intestinal failure in Finland: prevalence and characteristics of an adult patient population

OBJECTIVES

Details of intestinal failure in the Finnish adult population are unknown. This study aimed to specify the intestinal failure prevalence and to clinically characterize the patient population in Finland.

METHODS

All Finnish healthcare units with the potential of providing parenteral support received an electronic survey to report whether they had patient(s) aged ≥18 years on long-term (≥120 days) parenteral support due to intestinal failure. Patient details came from patient records. IBM SPSS v.25 was used to analyze descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

Of the 74 patients, 52 were included after confirming parenteral support indication from the records. The adult intestinal failure prevalence for 2017 was 11.7 per million, 95% confidence interval: 8.9-15.3. Most patients were women (69%), and the median age was 62 (45-72) years. Short bowel syndrome was the most frequent intestinal failure mechanism (73%), and surgical complication the most frequent underlying diagnosis (29%). Of patients, 66% represented the clinical classification category parenteral nutrition 1 or parenteral nutrition 2. Median Charlson Comorbidity Index was one (0-2.8); hypertension (37%) and diabetes (23%) were the most frequent comorbidities. Patients received seven (3.5-7) parenteral support infusions weekly, and eight patients (15%) were on fluids and electrolytes only. The median duration of parenteral support was 27.5 (11.3-57.3) months. Ten patients ceased parenteral support during 2017 after a median of 20.0 (9.0-40.3) parenteral support months. Eight weaned off parenteral support, one ran out of catheter sites, and one died.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence and patient characteristics of adult intestinal failure in Finland are similar to those in other Western countries.

Developing the Total Health Profile, a Generalizable Unified Set of Multimorbidity Risk Scores Derived From Machine Learning for Broad Patient Populations: Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity clinical risk scores allow clinicians to quickly assess their patients' health for decision making, often for recommendation to care management programs. However, these scores are limited by several issues: existing multimorbidity scores (1) are generally limited to one data group (eg, diagnoses, labs) and may be missing vital information, (2) are usually limited to specific demographic groups (eg, age), and (3) do not formally provide any granularity in the form of more nuanced multimorbidity risk scores to direct clinician attention.

OBJECTIVE

Using diagnosis, lab, prescription, procedure, and demographic data from electronic health records (EHRs), we developed a physiologically diverse and generalizable set of multimorbidity risk scores.

METHODS

Using EHR data from a nationwide cohort of patients, we developed the total health profile, a set of six integrated risk scores reflecting five distinct organ systems and overall health. We selected the occurrence of an inpatient hospital visitation over a 2-year follow-up window, attributable to specific organ systems, as our risk endpoint. Using a physician-curated set of features, we trained six machine learning models on 794,294 patients to predict the calibrated probability of the aforementioned endpoint, producing risk scores for heart, lung, neuro, kidney, and digestive functions and a sixth score for combined risk. We evaluated the scores using a held-out test cohort of 198,574 patients.

RESULTS

Study patients closely matched national census averages, with a median age of 41 years, a median income of $66,829, and racial averages by zip code of 73.8% White, 5.9% Asian, and 11.9% African American. All models were well calibrated and demonstrated strong performance with areas under the receiver operating curve (AUROCs) of 0.83 for the total health score (THS), 0.89 for heart, 0.86 for lung, 0.84 for neuro, 0.90 for kidney, and 0.83 for digestive functions. There was consistent performance of this scoring system across sexes, diverse patient ages, and zip code income levels. Each model learned to generate predictions by focusing on appropriate clinically relevant patient features, such as heart-related hospitalizations and chronic hypertension diagnosis for the heart model. The THS outperformed the other commonly used multimorbidity scoring systems, specifically the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI) overall (AUROCs: THS=0.823, CCI=0.735, ECI=0.649) as well as for every age, sex, and income bracket. Performance improvements were most pronounced for middle-aged and lower-income subgroups. Ablation tests using only diagnosis, prescription, social determinants of health, and lab feature groups, while retaining procedure-related features, showed that the combination of feature groups has the best predictive performance, though only marginally better than the diagnosis-only model on at-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Massive retrospective EHR data sets have made it possible to use machine learning to build practical multimorbidity risk scores that are highly predictive, personalizable, intuitive to explain, and generalizable across diverse patient populations.

How Do Geriatric Scores Predict 1-Year Mortality in Elderly Patients with Suspected Pneumonia?

Background: Pneumonia has an impact on long-term mortality in elderly patients. The risk factors associated with poor long-term outcomes are understated. We aimed to assess the ability of scores that evaluate patients’ comorbidities (cumulative illness rating scale—geriatric, CIRS-G), malnutrition (mini nutritional assessment, MNA) and functionality (functional independence measure, FIM) to predict 1-year mortality in a cohort of older patients having a suspicion of pneumonia. Methods: Our prospective study included consecutive patients over 65 years old and hospitalized with a suspicion of pneumonia enrolled in a monocentric cohort from May 2015 to April 2016. Each score was analysed in univariate and multivariate models and logistic regressions were used to identify contributors to 1-year mortality. Results: 200 patients were included (51% male, mean age 83.8 ± 7.7). Their 1-year mortality rate was 30%. FIM (p < 0.01), CIRS-G (p < 0.001) and MNA (p < 0.001) were strongly associated with poorer long-term outcomes in univariate analysis. CIRS-G (p < 0.05) and MNA (p < 0.05) were significant predictors of 1-year mortality in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Long-term prognosis of patients hospitalized for pneumonia was poor and we identified that scores assessing comorbidities and malnutrition seem to be important predictors of 1-year mortality. This should be taken into account for evaluating elderly patients’ prognosis, levels and goals of care.

Development of a predictive score for mortality at 3- and 12-month after discharge from an acute geriatric unit as a trigger for advanced care planning

BACKGROUND

There is a need for a mortality score that can be used to trigger advanced care planning among older patients discharged from acute geriatric units (AGUs).

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic score for 3- and 12-month mortality after discharge from an AGU, based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment, in-hospital events, and the exclusion of patients already receiving palliative care.

METHODS

DAMAGE is a French multicentre, prospective, cohort study. The broad inclusion criteria ensured that the cohort is representative of patients treated in an AGU. The DAMAGE participants underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment, a daily clinical check-up, and follow-up visits 3 and 12 months after discharge. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to develop a prognostic score for the derivation and validation subsets.

RESULTS

3509 patients were assessed and 3112 were included. The patient population was very older and frail or dependant, with a high proportion of deaths at 3 months (n=455, 14.8%) and at 12 months (n=1014, 33%). The score predicted an individual risk of mortality ranging from 1% to 80% at 3 months and between 5% and 93% at 12 months, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve in the validation cohort of 0.728 at 3 months and 0.733 at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Our score predicted a broad range of risks of death after discharge from the AGU. Having this information at the time of hospital discharge might trigger a discussion on advanced care planning and end-of-life care with very old, frail patients.

The Association between Sarcopenia as a Comorbid Disease and Incidence of Institutionalisation and Mortality in Geriatric Rehabilitation Inpatients: REStORing health of acutely unwell adulTs (RESORT)

INTRODUCTION

Sarcopenia is associated with poor health outcomes and highly prevalent in individuals with age-related diseases. This study aimed to determine whether sarcopenia as a comorbid disease is associated with the incidence of institutionalisation and mortality in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients.

METHODS

REStORing health of acutely unwell adulTs (RESORT) includes geriatric rehabilitation patients assessed for sarcopenia (the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People [EWGSOP, 2010], EWGSOP2 [2018], and the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia [AWGS 2019]), multimorbidity, disease severity, and specific diseases (Charlson Comorbidity Index and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale) at admission. The incidence of institutionalisation and mortality was recorded 3 months after discharge. Logistic regressions were adjusted for age and sex with "low morbidity and no sarcopenia" as the reference group.

RESULTS

In 549 included patients (median age was 82.2 [77.4-87.7] years, 58.3% female), sarcopenia prevalence was 37.9, 18.6, and 26.1% according to EWGSOP, EWGSOP2, and AWGS 2019, respectively. Sarcopenia as a comorbid disease with high multimorbidity, dementia, diabetes mellitus, and renal impairment had higher odds of institutionalisation incidence. Sarcopenia as a comorbid disease with high multimorbidity, high disease severity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, osteoporosis, and renal impairment had higher odds of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Sarcopenia as a comorbid disease is associated with a higher incidence of institutionalisation and mortality in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients. This highlights the need for in-hospital sarcopenia diagnostics and interventions.

Chronic conditions and multimorbidity associated with institutionalization among Finnish community-dwelling older people: an 18-year population-based follow-up study

Aim

The aim of the study is to assess the association of chronic conditions and multimorbidity with institutionalization in older people.

Findings

Having dementia, mood or neurological disorder and/or five or more chronic conditions were associated with a higher risk of institutionalization.

Message

These risk factors should be recognized in primary care when providing and targeting care and support for home-dwelling older people.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41999-021-00535-y.

Purpose

The ageing population is increasingly multimorbid. This challenges health care and elderly services as multimorbidity is associated with institutionalization. Especially dementia increases with age and is the main risk factor for institutionalization. The aim of this study was to assess the association of chronic conditions and multimorbidity with institutionalization in home-dwelling older people, with and without dementia.

Methods

In this prospective study with 18-year follow-up, the data on participants’ chronic conditions were gathered at the baseline examination, and of conditions acquired during the follow-up period from the municipality’s electronic patient record system and national registers. Only participants institutionalized or deceased by the end of the follow-up period were included in this study. Different cut-off-points for multimorbidity were analyzed. Cox regression model was used in the analyses. Death was used as a competing factor.

Results

The mean age of the participants (n = 820) was 74.7 years (64.0‒97.0). During the follow-up, 328 (40%) were institutionalized. Dementia, mood disorders, neurological disorders, and multimorbidity defined as five or more chronic conditions were associated with a higher risk of institutionalization in all the participants. In people without dementia, mood disorders and neurological disorders increased the risk of institutionalization.

Conclusion

Having dementia, mood or neurological disorder and/or five or more chronic conditions were associated with a higher risk of institutionalization. These risk factors should be recognized when providing and targeting care and support for older people still living at home.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41999-021-00535-y.

Surgical approach is associated with complication rate in sinonasal malignancy: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Management of sinonasal malignancy (SNM) often includes surgical resection as part of the multimodality treatment. Treatment-related surgical morbidity can occur, yet risk factors associated with complications in this population have not been sufficiently investigated.

METHODS

Adult patients with histologically confirmed SNM whose primary treatment included surgical resection were prospectively enrolled into an observational, multi-institutional cohort study from 2015 to 2020. Sociodemographic, disease, and treatment data were collected. Complications assessed included cerebrospinal fluid leak, orbital injury, intracranial injury, diplopia, meningitis, osteoradionecrosis, hospitalization for neutropenia, and subsequent chronic rhinosinusitis. The surgical approach was categorized as endoscopic resection (ER) or open/combined resection (O/CR). Associations between factors and complications were analyzed using Student's t test, Fisher's exact test, and logistic regression modeling.

RESULTS

Overall, 142 patients met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-three subjects had at least 1 complication (16.2%). On unadjusted analysis, adjuvant radiation therapy was associated with developing a complication (91.3% vs 65.5%, p = 0.013). Compared with the ER group (n = 98), the O/CR group (n = 44) had a greater percentage of higher T-stage lesions (p = 0.004) and more frequently received adjuvant radiation (84.1% vs 64.4%, p = 0.017) and chemotherapy (50.0% vs 30.6%, p = 0.038). Complication rates were similar between the ER and O/CR groups without controlling for other factors. Regression analysis that retained certain factors showed O/CR was associated with increased odds of experiencing a complication (odds ratio, 3.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-11.19).

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective, multicenter evaluation of SNM treatment outcomes is feasible. Undergoing O/CR was associated with increased odds of developing a complication after accounting for radiation therapy. Further studies are warranted to build upon these findings.

Do morbidity measures predict the decline of activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living amongst older inpatients? A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Older adults often suffer from multimorbidity, which results in hospitalisations. These are often associated with poor health outcomes such as functional dependence and mortality. The aim of this review was to summarise the current literature on the capacities of morbidity measures in predicting activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) amongst inpatients.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed using four databases: Medline, Cochrane, Embase, and Cinahl Central from inception to 6th March 2019. Keywords included comorbidity, multimorbidity, ADL, and iADL, along with specific morbidity measures. Articles reporting on morbidity measures predicting ADL and IADL decline amongst inpatients aged 65 years or above were included.

RESULTS

Out of 7334 unique articles, 12 articles were included reporting on 7826 inpatients (mean age 77.6 years, 52.7% females). Out of five morbidity measures, the Charlson Comorbidity Index was most often reported. Overall, morbidity measures were poorly associated with ADL and IADL decline amongst older inpatients.

CONCLUSION

Morbidity measures are poor predictors for ADL or IADL decline amongst older inpatients and follow-up duration does not alter the performance of morbidity measures.

The association of comorbidity measures and mortality in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients by cancer status: RESORT

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is highly prevalent in older adults, both those with and without cancer, and is associated with an increased risk of mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate if multimorbidity measures in geriatric rehabilitation inpatients differ in their association with mortality, dependent on a diagnosis of cancer.

METHODS

REStORing health of acutely unwell adulTs (RESORT) is an ongoing longitudinal inception cohort of geriatric rehabilitation inpatients. Comorbidity was measured at admission using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), age-adjusted CCI (CCI-A), Cumulative Illness Rating Scale-Geriatrics (CIRS-G) and the CIRS-G severity index. Patients were allocated to a cancer status group (no cancer, history of cancer, or active cancer). The association of comorbidity indices with mortality was analyzed using Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 693 patients (mean age 82.2 ± 7.5 years), 523 (75.4%) had no history of cancer, 96 (13.9%) past cancer, and 74 (10.7%) active cancer. Three months post-discharge, patients with active cancer had a higher mortality risk compared to patients with no cancer (HR = 3.57, 95% CI 2.03-6.23). CCI and CCI-A scores were significantly associated with higher mortality risk in all cancer status groups.

CONCLUSION

In geriatric rehabilitation patients, incremental CCI and CCI-A scores were associated with higher mortality in all three cancer status groups. However, patients with active cancer had a significantly higher 3-month mortality compared to those with no or past cancer, and this is likely determined by the advanced nature of the malignancies in this group.

Mortality Risk and Its Association with Geriatric Domain Deficits in Older Outpatients: The Amsterdam Ageing Cohort

INTRODUCTION

In older patients, life expectancy is determined by a complex interaction of multiple geriatric domains. A comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) captures different geriatric domains. Yet, if and how components of the CGA are related to mortality in an outpatient geriatric setting is unknown. In the Amsterdam Ageing Cohort, we therefore studied distribution and accumulation of geriatric domain deficits in relation to mortality.

METHODS

All patients received a CGA as part of standard care, independent of referral reason. We summarized deficits on the CGA, using predefined cutoffs, in 5 geriatric domains: somatic, mental, nutritional, physical, and social domain. Information on mortality was obtained from the Dutch municipal register. We used age- and sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analyses to relate the separate domains and accumulation of impaired domains to overall mortality.

RESULTS

From the 1,055 geriatric outpatients (53% female; age 79 ± 7 years), 172 patients (16%) had died after 1.7 ± 1.1 years. In 626 patients (59%), 3 or more domains were impaired. All domains were independently associated with mortality, with the highest hazard for the somatic domain (HR 3.7 [1.7-8.0]) and the lowest hazard for the mental domain (HR 1.5 [1.1-12.0]). In addition, accumulation of impaired domains showed a gradually increased mortality risk, ranging from HR 2.2 (0.8-6.1) for 2 domains to HR 9.6 (3.7-24.7) for all 5 domains impaired.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that impairment in multiple geriatric domains is highly prevalent and independently and cumulatively associated with mortality in an outpatient geriatric setting.

Decompression of Multimorbidity Along the Disease Trajectories of Diabetes Mellitus Patients

Multimorbidity, the presence of two or more diseases in a patient, is maybe the greatest health challenge for the aging populations of many high-income countries. One of the main drivers of multimorbidity is diabetes mellitus (DM) due to its large number of risk factors and complications. Yet, we currently have very limited understanding of how to quantify multimorbidity beyond a simple counting of diseases and thereby inform prevention and intervention strategies tailored to the needs of elderly DM patients. Here, we conceptualize multimorbidity as typical temporal progression patterns of multiple diseases, so-called trajectories, and develop a framework to perform a matched and sex-specific comparison between DM and non-diabetic patients. We find that these disease trajectories can be organized into a multi-level hierarchy in which DM patients progress from relatively healthy states with low mortality to high-mortality states characterized by cardiovascular diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, renal failure, and different combinations thereof. The same disease trajectories can be observed in non-diabetic patients, however, we find that DM patients typically progress at much higher rates along their trajectories. Comparing male and female DM patients, we find a general tendency that females progress faster toward high multimorbidity states than males, in particular along trajectories that involve obesity. Males, on the other hand, appear to progress faster in trajectories that combine heart diseases with cerebrovascular diseases. Our results show that prevention and efficient management of DM are key to achieve a compression of morbidity into higher patient ages. Multidisciplinary efforts involving clinicians as well as experts in machine learning and data visualization are needed to better understand the identified disease trajectories and thereby contribute to solving the current multimorbidity crisis in healthcare.