A New Score for Risk Stratification of Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Predictive Value of HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES Bleeding Risk Scores After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Various scoring systems have been developed to assess the risk of bleeding in medical settings. HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES risk scores are commonly used to estimate bleeding risk in patients receiving anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, but data on their predictive value in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are limited.

METHODS

This study evaluated and compared the predictive abilities of the HAS-BLED and HEMORR2HAGES bleeding risk scores in all-comer patients undergoing PCI. The PARIS score, specifically designed for patients undergoing PCI, was used as a comparator. The scores were calculated at baseline and compared with the occurrence of events during a 2-year clinical follow-up period. Between 2015 and 2017, all consecutive patients undergoing PCI we re prospectively enrolled and divided into risk tertiles based on bleeding risk scores. The primary end points were hierarchical major bleeding events, defined by Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3 through 5, and patient-oriented composite end points according to Bleeding Academic Research Consortium classification, which were assessed during the 2-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

A total of 1,080 patients completed the follow-up period. Two years after index, 189 patients (17.5%) had experienced any bleeding, with 48 events (4.4%) classified as Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3 to 5. All bleeding risk scores showed statistically significant predictive ability for bleeding events. The HEMORR2HAGES score (C statistic, 0.73) was more effective than the HAS-BLED score (C statistic, 0.66; P = .07) and the PARIS score (C statistic, 0.66; P = .06) in predicting risk of major bleeding. Patients in high-risk bleeding groups also experienced a higher incidence of patient-oriented composite end points.

CONCLUSIONS

The HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, and PARIS risk scores exhibited good predictive abilities for bleeding events following PCI. Patients at high risk of bleeding also demonstrated increased ischemic risk and higher mortality during the 2-year follow-up period.

Cathepsin S Levels and Survival Among Patients With Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes

BACKGROUND

Patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) are at high residual risk for long-term cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Cathepsin S (CTSS) is a lysosomal cysteine protease with elastolytic and collagenolytic activity that has been involved in atherosclerotic plaque rupture.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine the following: 1) the prognostic value of circulating CTSS measured at patient admission for long-term mortality in NSTE-ACS; and 2) its additive value over the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score.

METHODS

This was a single-center cohort study, consecutively recruiting patients with adjudicated NSTE-ACS (n = 1,112) from the emergency department of an academic hospital. CTSS was measured in serum using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All-cause mortality at 8 years was the primary endpoint. CV death was the secondary endpoint.

RESULTS

In total, 367 (33.0%) deaths were recorded. CTSS was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR for highest vs lowest quarter of CTSS: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.34-2.66; P < 0.001) and CV death (HR: 2.58; 95% CI: 1.15-5.77; P = 0.021) after adjusting for traditional CV risk factors, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, left ventricular ejection fraction, high-sensitivity troponin-T, revascularization and index diagnosis (unstable angina/ non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction). When CTSS was added to the GRACE score, it conferred significant discrimination and reclassification value for all-cause mortality (Delta Harrell's C: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.012-0.047; P = 0.001; and net reclassification improvement = 0.202; P = 0.003) and CV death (AUC: 0.056; 95% CI: 0.017-0.095; P = 0.005; and net reclassification improvement = 0.390; P = 0.001) even after additionally considering high-sensitivity troponin-T and left ventricular ejection fraction.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating CTSS is a predictor of long-term mortality and improves risk stratification of patients with NSTE-ACS over the GRACE score.

A Novel Risk Score to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: Results From a Prospective Observational Cohort

Objectives

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a novel risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using the Heart Failure after Acute Myocardial Infarction with Optimal Treatment (HAMIOT) cohort in China.

Methods

The HAMIOT cohort was a multicenter, prospective, observational cohort of consecutive patients with AMI in China. All participants were enrolled between December 2017 and December 2019. The cohort was randomly assigned (at a proportion of 7:3) to the training and validation cohorts. Logistic regression model was used to develop and validate a predictive model of in-hospital mortality. The performance of discrimination and calibration was evaluated using the Harrell’s c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively. The new simplified risk score was validated in an external cohort that included independent patients with AMI between October 2019 and March 2021.

Results

A total of 12,179 patients with AMI participated in the HAMIOT cohort, and 136 patients were excluded. In-hospital mortality was 166 (1.38%). Ten predictors were found to be independently associated with in-hospital mortality: age, sex, history of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), history of stroke, presentation with ST-segment elevation, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, initial serum creatinine level, initial N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, and PCI treatment. The c-statistic of the novel simplified HAMIOT risk score was 0.88, with good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test: P = 0.35). Compared with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, the HAMIOT score had better discrimination ability in the training (0.88 vs. 0.81) and validation (0.82 vs. 0.72) cohorts. The total simplified HAMIOT risk score ranged from 0 to 121. The observed mortality in the HAMIOT cohort increased across different risk groups, with 0.35% in the low risk group (score ≤ 50), 3.09% in the intermediate risk group (50 < score ≤ 74), and 14.29% in the high risk group (score > 74).

Conclusion

The novel HAMIOT risk score could predict in-hospital mortality and be a valid tool for prospective risk stratification of patients with AMI.

Clinical Trial Registration

[https://clinicaltrials.gov], Identifier: [NCT03297164].

Thrombosis and Major Bleeding Risk After Primary PCI Among Patients With Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease

Background and Aim

This study aimed to develop and validate separate risk prediction models for thrombosis events (TEs) and major bleeding (MB) in patients with multivessel coronary artery lesions who had undergone primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

Methods and Results

Thrombosis events (TEs) were defined as the composite of myocardial infarction recurrence or ischemic cerebrovascular events, whereas MB was defined as the occurrence of bleeding academic research consortium (BARC) three or five bleeding. The derivation and validation cohorts comprised 2,976 patients who underwent primary PCI between January 2010 and June 2017. At a median follow-up of 3.07 years (1,122 days), TEs and MB occurred in 167 and 98 patients, respectively. Independent predictors of TEs were older age, prior PCI, non-ST elevated MI (NSTEMI), and stent thrombosis (ST). Independent predictors of MB were triple therapy at discharge, coronary artery bifurcation lesions, lesion restenosis, target lesion of the left main coronary artery, stent thrombosis, non-use of IABP during primary PCI, type A/B according to the American College of Cardiology classification of the coronary lesion, and PTCA. In the derivation and validation cohorts, the areas under the curve were 0.817 and 0.82 for thrombosis and 0.886 and 0.976 for bleeding, respectively. In the derivation cohort, high thrombotic risk (n = 755) was associated with higher 3-year incidence of TEs, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), and all-cause death compared to low risk (n = 1,275) (p = 0.0022, 0.019, and 0.012, respectively). High bleeding risk (n = 1,675) was associated with higher incidence of bleeding, MACEs, and cardiac death compared to low risk (n = 355) (p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

Simple risk scores can be useful in predicting risks of ischemic and bleeding events after primary PCI, thereby stratifying thrombotic or MB risks and facilitating clinical decisions.

Ischemic and Bleeding Outcomes According to the Academic Research Consortium High Bleeding Risk Criteria in All Comers Treated by Percutaneous Coronary Interventions

Background: The Academic Research Consortium have identified a set of major and minor risk factors in order to standardize the definition of a High Bleeding Risk (ACR-HBR). Aims: The aim of this study is to stratify the bleeding risk in patients included in the Cardio-Fribourg registry, according to the Academic Research Consortium for High Bleeding Risk (ACR-HBR) definition, and to report ischemic and hemorrhagic events at 2-year of clinical follow-up. Methods: Between 2015 and 2017, consecutive patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention were prospectively included in the Cardio-Fribourg registry. Patients were considered high (HBR) or low (LBR) bleeding risk depending on the ARC-HBR definition. Primary endpoints were hierarchical major bleeding events as defined by the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) grade 3-5, and ARC patient-oriented major adverse cardiac events (POCE) at 2-year follow-up. Results: Follow-up was complete in 1,080 patients. There were 354 patients in the HBR group (32.7%) and 726 patients in the low-bleeding risk (LBR) group (67.2%). At 2-year follow-up, cumulative BARC 3-5 bleedings were higher in HBR (10.5%) compared to LBR patients (1.5%, p < 0.01) and the impact of HBR risk factors was incremental. At 2-year follow-up, POCE were more frequent in HBR (27.4%) compared to LBR group (18.2%, <0.01). Overall mortality was higher in HBR (14.0%) vs. LBR (2.9%, p < 0.01). Conclusions: ARC-HBR criteria appropriately identified a population at a higher risk of bleeding after percutaneous coronary intervention. An increased risk of bleeding is also associated with an increased risk of ischemic events at 2-year follow-up.

Risk Stratification of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Defining the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has been a challenge. Many individual biomarkers and risk scores that predict outcomes during different periods following ACS have been proposed. This review evaluates known outcome predictors supported by clinical data in light of the development of new treatment strategies for ACS patients during the last three decades.

The risk score for in-hospital mortality in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Aim    To develop a scale (score system) for predicting the individual risk of in-hospital death in patients with ST segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) with an account of results of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).Material and methods    The analysis used data of 1 649 sequential patients with STEMI included into the hospital registry of PCI from 2006 through 2017. To test the model predictability, the original sample was divided into two groups: a training group consisting of 1150 (70 %) patients and a test group consisting of 499 (30 %) patients. The training sample was used for computing an individual score. To this purpose, β-coefficients of each variable obtained at the last stage of the multivariate logistic regression model were subjected to linear transformation. The scale was verified using the test sample.Results    Seven independent predictors of in-hospital death were determined: age ≥65 years, acute heart failure (Killip class III-IV), total myocardial ischemia time ≥180 min, anterior localization of myocardial infarction, failure of PCI, SYNTAX scale score ≥16, glycemia on admission ≥7.78 mmol/l for patients without a history of diabetes mellitus and ≥14.35 mmol/l for patients with a history of diabetes mellitus. The contribution of each value to the risk of in-hospital death was ranked from 0 to 7. A threshold total score of 10 was determined; a score ≥10 corresponded to a high probability of in-hospital death (18.2 %). In the training sample, the sensitivity was 81 %, the specificity was 80.6 %, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.902. In the test sample, the sensitivity was 96.2 %, the specificity was 83.3 %, and the AUC was 0.924.Conclusion    The developed scale has a good predictive accuracy in identifying patients with acute STEMI who have a high risk of fatal outcome at the hospital stage.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram of In-hospital Major Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

Background and Objective: This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram for the occurrence of in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Methods: A total of 1,360 ACS patients admitted between November 2014 and October 2019 from Zhongda Hospital and Yancheng Third People's Hospital were included. Patients admitted in Zhongda Hospital before 2018 were split into the training cohort (n = 793). Those admitted after 2018 in Zhongda Hospital and patients from Yancheng Third People's Hospital were split into the validation cohort (n = 567). Twenty eight clinical features routinely assessed including baseline characteristics, past medical history and auxiliary examinations were used to inform the models to predict in-hospital MACCE (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, stroke, and heart failure) in ACS patients. The best-performing model was tested in the validation cohort. The accuracy and clinical applicability were tested by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA). Results: The in-hospital MACCE occurred in 93 (6.83%) patients. The final prediction model consists of four variables: age, Killip grading, fasting blood-glucose (FBG) and whether percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was performed at early stage. A nomogram was used to present the final result. Individualized nomogram exhibited comparable discrimination to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score [AUC: 0.807 (95% CI 0.736-0.878) vs. 0.761 (95% CI 0.69-0.878)], P = 0.10) and a better discrimination than the Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events (EMMACE) score [AUC: 0.807 (95% CI 0.736-0.878) vs. 0.723(95% CI 0.648-0.798), P = 0.01] in predicting the risk of in-hospital MACCE in ACS patients. A good prediction performance was maintained in the validation cohort (AUC =0.813, 95% CI 0.738-0.889). The prediction model also exhibited decent calibration (P = 0.972) and clinical usefulness. Conclusion: The nomogram may be a simple and effective tool in predicting the occurrence of in-hospital MACCE in ACS patients. Further longitudinal studies are warranted to validate its value in guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing the treatment of high-risk patients.

Sex-Based Differences in Bleeding Risk After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention and Implications for the Academic Research Consortium High Bleeding Risk Criteria

Background

Female sex was not included among the high bleeding risk (HBR) criteria by the Academic Research Consortium (ARC) as it remains unclear whether it constitutes an HBR condition after percutaneous coronary intervention. We investigated whether female sex associates with HBR and assessed the performance of ARC HBR criteria separately in women and men.

Methods and Results

Among all consecutive patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention between 2009 and 2018, bleeding occurrences up to 1 year were prospectively collected and centrally adjudicated. All but one of the originally defined ARC HBR criteria were assessed, and the ARC HBR score generated accordingly. Among 16 821 patients, 25.6% were women. Compared with men, women were older and had lower creatinine clearance and hemoglobin values. After adjustment, female sex was independently associated with access‐site (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.22–3.74; P=0.008) but not with overall or non–access‐site 1‐year Bleeding Academic Research Consortium 3 or 5 bleeding. This association remained consistent when the femoral but not the radial approach was chosen. The ARC HBR score discrimination, using the original criteria, was lower among women than men (c‐index 0.644 versus 0.688; P=0.048), whereas a revised ARC HBR score, in which age, creatinine clearance, and hemoglobin were modeled as continuous rather than dichotomized variables, performed similarly in both sexes.

Conclusions

Female sex is an independent predictor for access‐site bleeding but not for overall bleeding events at 1 year after percutaneous coronary intervention. The ARC HBR framework shows an overall good performance in both sexes, yet is lower in women than men, attributable to dichotomization of age, creatinine clearance, and hemoglobin values, which are differently distributed between sexes.

Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02241291.

A risk score to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome at early medical contact: results from the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) Project

BACKGROUND

A number of models have been built to evaluate risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, accurate prediction of mortality at early medical contact is difficult. This study sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with ACS using variables available at early medical contact.

METHODS

A total of 62,546 unselected ACS patients from 150 tertiary hospitals who were admitted between 2014 and 2017 and enrolled in the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) project, were randomly assigned (at a ratio of 7:3) to a training dataset (n=43,774) and a validation dataset (n=18,772). Based on the identified predictors which were available prior to any blood test, a new point-based risk score for in-hospital death, CCC-ACS score, was derived and validated. The CCC-ACS score was then compared with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score.

RESULTS

The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.9% in both the training and validation datasets. The CCC-ACS score, a new point-based risk score, was developed to predict in-hospital mortality using 7 variables that were available before any blood test including age, systolic blood pressure, cardiac arrest, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, history of heart failure, severe clinical conditions (acute heart failure or cardiogenic shock), and electrocardiographic ST-segment deviation. This new risk score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (P=0.10 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the training dataset and 0.85 (P=0.13 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the validation dataset. The CCC-ACS score was comparable to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of in-hospital death in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

The newly developed CCC-ACS score, which utilizes factors that are acquirable at early medical contact, may be able to stratify the risk of in-hospital death in patients with ACS.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02306616.

Modified CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts in-hospital mortality and procedural complications in acute coronary syndrome treated with percutaneous coronary intervention

Background

Current risk prediction models in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients undergoing PCI are mathematically complex. This study was undertaken to assess the accuracy of a modified CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, comprised of easily accessible clinical factors in predicting adverse events.

Methods

The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was queried for ACS patients who underwent PCI between 2010 and 2014. We developed a modified CHA₂DS₂-VASc score for risk prediction in ACS patients. Multivariate mixed effect logistic regression was utilized to study the adjusted risk for adverse outcomes based on the score. The primary outcome evaluated was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes assessed were stroke, respiratory failure, acute kidney injury, all-cause bleeding, pacemaker insertion, vascular complications, length of stay and cost.

Results

There were 252,443 patients admitted with ACS included. Mean age was 62 ± 12 years. The mean CH₃A₂DS-VASc score was 1.6 ± 1.6. The in-hospital mortality rate was 2.5%. CH₃A₂DS-VASc score was highly correlated with increased rate of mortality and all secondary outcomes. ROC curve analysis for association of CH₃A₂DS-VASc score with mortality demonstrates that area under the curve (AUC) = 0.83 (95%C: 0.82–0.84). Stepwise increases in CH₃A₂DS-VASc score correlated with incremental risk, and total score was an independent predictor of mortality (adjusted OR: 1.99 (95%CI: 1.96–2.03) p < 0.001) and all secondary outcomes.

Conclusion

This study supports the applicability of the CH₃A₂DS-VASc score as an accurate risk prediction model for ACS patients undergoing PCI and could supplant more complicated models for quality assurance.

Evaluation of a novel score for predicting 2-year outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome after percutaneous coronary intervention

BACKGROUND

A novel risk model to predict long-term mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), derived from the EPICOR (long-term follow-up of antithrombotic management patterns in acute coronary syndrome patients) registry, has been released recently and its performance remains to be assessed. The objective is to evaluate the EPICOR score for 2-year mortality risk in ACS patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

METHODS

From January to December in 2013, a total of 6087 consecutive patients presenting with ACS who were scheduled for PCI were enrolled. Use online simplified EPICOR calculator to assess the expected risk of death.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight patients (1.1%) died during 2-year follow-up. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve for mortality in the overall population, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and non-ST-segment elevation ACS were 0.712 (95% CI, 0.650-0.772; p < 0.001), 0.790 (95% CI, 0.676-0.903; p < 0.001), and 0.683 (95% CI, 0.615-0.751; p < 0.001), respectively. Moreover, it was noninferior to the updated Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. Patients were stratified into three categories: low-risk (n = 3382), medium-risk (n = 2547), and high-risk (n = 158). Kaplan-Meier curve demonstrated significant ongoing divergence in both mortality (0.6% vs 1.3% vs 9.5%; p < 0.001) and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) (11.8% vs 12.3% vs 19.6%; p = 0.014) among them. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that medium- and high-risk groups predicted 2- and 12-fold hazards of death comparing to the lowest. Yet, it was not a significant predictor for MACCEs after adjusting confounding factors.

CONCLUSION

The simplified EPICOR score showed fair discriminatory power of 2-year mortality in patients with ACS and an improved performance in the STEMI subgroup. It could aid in risk stratification of ACS patients as an independent predictor.

Utility of the HAS-BLED score for risk stratification of patients with acute coronary syndrome

HAS-BLED score was developed for bleeding prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Recently, it was also used in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). This study analyzes the HAS-BLED predictivity for bleedings and mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) without AF, and evaluates the utilization of alternative criteria for renal dysfunction. The study population was composed of 704 patients with ACS. Six-hundred and eleven patients completed the follow-up. The HAS-BLED score was calculated both using the original definition of renal dysfunction, both using three alternative eGFR thresholds (< 30, < 60 and ≤ 90 ml/min/1.73 mq). In-hospital and post-discharge bleedings and mortality were recorded, and calibration and discrimination of the various risk models were evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the C-statistic. In-hospital bleedings were 4.7% and mortality was 2.7%. Post-discharge bleedings were 3.1% and mortality was 4.4%. Regarding bleeding events and in-hospital mortality, the HAS-BLED original risk model demonstrated a moderate-to-good discriminative performance (C-statistics from 0.65 to 0.76). No significant differences were found in predictive accuracy when applying alternative definitions of renal dysfunction based on eGFR, with the exception of post-discharge mortality, for which HAS-BLED model assuming an eGFR value < 60 ml/min/1.73 mq showed a discriminative performance significantly higher in comparison to the other risk models (C-statistic 0.71 versus 0.64-0.66). In conclusion, in our ACS population, the HAS-BLED risk score showed a fairly good predictive accuracy regarding in-hospital and follow-up bleeding events and in-hospital mortality. The use of renal dysfunction alternative criteria based on eGFR values resulted in out-of hospital mortality predictive accuracy enhancement.

Untapped potential of multicenter studies: a review of cardiovascular risk prediction models revealed inappropriate analyses and wide variation in reporting

BACKGROUND

Clinical prediction models are often constructed using multicenter databases. Such a data structure poses additional challenges for statistical analysis (clustered data) but offers opportunities for model generalizability to a broad range of centers. The purpose of this study was to describe properties, analysis, and reporting of multicenter studies in the Tufts PACE Clinical Prediction Model Registry and to illustrate consequences of common design and analyses choices.

METHODS

Fifty randomly selected studies that are included in the Tufts registry as multicenter and published after 2000 underwent full-text screening. Simulated examples illustrate some key concepts relevant to multicenter prediction research.

RESULTS

Multicenter studies differed widely in the number of participating centers (range 2 to 5473). Thirty-nine of 50 studies ignored the multicenter nature of data in the statistical analysis. In the others, clustering was resolved by developing the model on only one center, using mixed effects or stratified regression, or by using center-level characteristics as predictors. Twenty-three of 50 studies did not describe the clinical settings or type of centers from which data was obtained. Four of 50 studies discussed neither generalizability nor external validity of the developed model.

CONCLUSIONS

Regression methods and validation strategies tailored to multicenter studies are underutilized. Reporting on generalizability and potential external validity of the model lacks transparency. Hence, multicenter prediction research has untapped potential.

REGISTRATION

This review was not registered.

Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Score for Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is the default treatment for patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and carries a higher risk of adverse outcomes when compared with elective and urgent PCI. Conventional PCI risk scores tend to be complex and may underestimate the risk associated with PPCI due to under-representation of patients with STEMI in their datasets. This study aimed to develop a simple, practical and contemporary risk model to provide risk stratification in PPCI.

METHODS

Demographic, clinical and outcome data were collected for all patients who underwent PPCI between January 2009 and October 2013 at the Northern General Hospital, Sheffield. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and to construct a risk model. This model was then separately validated on an internal and external dataset.

RESULTS

The derivation cohort included 2870 patients with a 30-day mortality of 5.1% (145 patients). Only four variables were required to predict 30-day mortality: age [OR:1.047, 95% CI:1.031-1.063], call-to-balloon (CTB) time [OR:1.829, 95% CI:1.198-2.791], cardiogenic shock [OR:13.886, 95% CI:8.284-23.275] and congestive heart failure [OR:3.169, 95% CI:1.420-7.072]. Internal validation was performed in 693 patients and external validation in 660 patients undergoing PPCI. Our model showed excellent discrimination on ROC-curve analysis (C-Stat = 0.87 internal and 0.86, external), and excellent calibration on Hosmer-Lemeshow testing (p = 0.37 internal, 0.55 external).

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a bedside risk model which can predict 30-day mortality after PPCI using only four variables: age, CTB time, congestive heart failure and shock.

Meta-Analysis of Bleeding Risk Prediction Scores in Patients After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention on Dual Antiplatelet Therapy

The duration and type of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) prescribed to patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) involves carefully balancing reduced ischemia and increased bleeding risk for individual patients. Whereas multiple bleeding risk scores exist, the performance of these models to predict long-term bleeding in the setting of DAPT across different settings and populations is unclear. Therefore, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the performance of current bleeding risk prediction scores for predicting major long-term bleeding events in patients on DAPT post-PCI. Based on a search of MEDLINE (January 1, 1946 to March 3, 2017) and EMBASE (January 1, 1974 to March 3, 2017) for studies published in the English language, we identified 10 published studies of 11 risk unique risk prediction models across a wide variety of settings. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to measure discrimination, when available. Our findings reveal that the prediction models created to date demonstrate only modest accuracy, with the reported AUCs ranging from 0.54 to 0.89; aggregated AUC 0.68 (95% confidence intervals 0.65 to 0.72). Although only 5 studies (50%) reported measures of calibration, the reported models were reasonably well calibrated. Only 3 models (33%) were externally validated. Meta-regression demonstrated lack of influence by age (p = 0.99) or length of follow up (p = 0.42). Sensitivity analysis did not significantly change the results. Novel prediction models are warranted to aid in maximizing the benefit of DAPT after PCI while minimizing harm.

Temporal Trends, Complications, and Predictors of Outcomes Among Nonagenarians Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Insights From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine temporal trends, in-laboratory complications, mortality, and predictors of mortality among nonagenarians undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

BACKGROUND

Nonagenarians (patients 90 years of age or older) undergoing PCI are often underrepresented in clinical trials, and their management remains challenging and controversial.

METHODS

All veterans undergoing PCI with data recorded in the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking program from 2005 to 2014 were evaluated. Temporal trends in the use of PCI, occurrence of in-laboratory complications, and 30-day and 1-year mortality were assessed. Using a frailty model, predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality in nonagenarians were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among all veterans undergoing PCI (n = 67,148) between 2005 and 2014, 274 (0.4%) were nonagenarians. The proportion of nonagenarians increased from 0.25% in 2008 to 0.58% in 2014. Compared with younger patients, nonagenarians had a greater risk for acute cardiogenic shock post-procedure (0.73% vs. 0.12%; p = 0.04) and no reflow (2.9% vs. 1.0%; p = 0.02). Unadjusted (10.6% vs. 1.4%; p < 0.0001) and adjusted 30-day mortality (odds ratio: 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.42 to 3.22) and unadjusted (16.3% vs. 4.2%; p < 0.0001) and adjusted 1-year mortality (odds ratio: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.27 to 2.62) were higher among PCI patients who were nonagenarians. The National Cardiovascular Data Registry risk score was highly predictive of both 30-day (hazard ratio: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.86 to 2.82) and 1-year (hazard ratio: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.90) mortality among nonagenarians.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonagenarians were a small but growing population with worse 30-day and 1-year mortality. The National Cardiovascular Data Registry risk score was a strong predictor of mortality in these patients.

ANMCO/GICR-IACPR/SICI-GISE Consensus Document: the clinical management of chronic ischaemic cardiomyopathy

Stable coronary artery disease (CAD) is a clinical entity of great epidemiological importance. It is becoming increasingly common due to the longer life expectancy, being strictly related to age and to advances in diagnostic techniques and pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions. Stable CAD encompasses a variety of clinical and anatomic presentations, making the identification of its clinical and anatomical features challenging. Therapeutic interventions should be defined on an individual basis according to the patient's risk profile. To this aim, management flow charts have been reviewed based on sustainability and appropriateness derived from recent evidence. Special emphasis has been placed on non-pharmacological interventions, stressing the importance of lifestyle changes, including smoking cessation, regular physical activity, and diet. Adherence to therapy as an emerging risk factor is also discussed.

Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Continuation Beyond 1 Year After Drug-Eluting Stents

Background—

The benefits and harms of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) continuation beyond 1 year after drug-eluting stent implantation as compared with 1-year DAPT remain controversial.

Methods and Results—

We searched for randomized trials that compared longer than 1-year DAPT versus 1-year DAPT after drug-eluting stenting. A meta-analysis was performed by using standard frequentist and random-effects Bayesian approaches. Four trials comprising 17 650 participants were included. Compared with 1-year DAPT, extended DAPT did not affect all-cause mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79–1.5; P =0.53) or cardiovascular mortality (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.72–1.46; P =0.88). Extended DAPT was associated with a reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.43–0.73; P <0.001), nonsignificant reductions of stent thrombosis (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.16–1.27; P =0.13), similar risk of stroke (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.65–1.26; P =0.56), and an increased risk of major bleeding (OR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.06–2.11; P =0.02). By using Bayesian meta-analysis, we found moderate evidence of a reduction of myocardial infarction (OR, 0.62; 95% credible intervals, 0.39–1.05) and weak evidence of an increase in major bleeding (OR, 1.66; 95% credible intervals, 0.89–3.09) associated with extended DAPT.

Conclusions—

In this meta-analysis, extended DAPT beyond 1 year prevented myocardial infarctions and increased major bleedings, but the strength of evidence for these effects was not strong. DAPT continuation beyond 1 year showed no effects on mortality.

Prognostic value of ejection fraction in patients admitted with acute coronary syndrome: A real world study

There are limited data regarding factors affecting outcomes among acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients presenting with varying degrees of left ventricle (LV) dysfunction. We aimed to identify factors associated with mortality according to LV ejection fraction (LVEF) at 1st admission in ACS patients.A total of 8983 ACS patients prospectively enrolled in the Acute Coronary Syndrome Israeli Survey (2000-2010) were categorized according to their LVEF at admission: severe LV dysfunction (LVEF < 30% [n = 845]), mild-moderate LV dysfunction (LVEF 30%-49% [n = 4470]); preserved LV function (LVEF ≥ 50% [n = 3659]). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to assess the risk factors for 1-year mortality according to LVEF on admission.Over the past decade there was a gradual decline in the proportion of patients admitted with low LVEF. Mortality rates were highest among patients with severe LV dysfunction (36%), intermediate among those with mild-moderate LV dysfunction (10%), and lowest among those with preserved LV function (4%, P < 0.001). We recognized different risk factors for mortality according to LVEF at admission. Admission clinical features (syncope, anterior myocardial infarction, and ST elevation myocardial infarction [STEMI]) predicted mortality risk in patients with severe LV dysfunction (all P < 0.05), whereas the presence of comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic renal failure, and peripheral arterial disease) predicted mortality risk in patients with more preserved LV function. Age and admission Killip class ≥II were consistent predictors in all LVEF subsets.LVEF at admission is a strong predictor of mortality in ACS, and prognostic factors differ according to LVEF during admission. In patients with severe LV dysfunction signs of clinical instability are related to 1-year mortality; in patients with a more preserved LV function the prognosis is related to the presence of co-morbidities.

Biomarkers and Coronary Lesions Predict Outcomes after Revascularization in Non–ST-Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification in non–ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) is currently mainly based on clinical characteristics. With routine invasive management, angiography findings and biomarkers are available and may improve prognostication. We aimed to assess if adding biomarkers [high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (cTnT-hs), N-terminal probrain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15)] and extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) might improve prognostication in revascularized patients with NSTE-ACS.

METHODS

In the PLATO (Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes) trial, 5174 NSTE-ACS patients underwent initial angiography and revascularization and had cTnT-hs, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 measured. Cox models were developed adding extent of CAD and biomarker levels to established clinical risk variables for the composite of cardiovascular death (CVD)/spontaneous myocardial infarction (MI), and CVD alone. Models were compared using c-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

RESULTS

For the composite end point and CVD, prognostication improved when adding extent of CAD, NT-proBNP, and GDF-15 to clinical variables (c-statistic 0.685 and 0.805, respectively, for full model vs 0.649 and 0.760 for clinical model). cTnT-hs did not contribute to prognostication. In the full model (clinical variables, extent of CAD, all biomarkers), hazard ratios (95% CI) per standard deviation increase were for cTnT-hs 0.93(0.81–1.05), NT-proBNP 1.32(1.13–1.53), GDF-15 1.20(1.07–1.36) for the composite end point, driven by prediction of CVD by NT-proBNP and GDF-15. For spontaneous MI, there was an association with NT-proBNP or GDF-15, but not with cTnT-hs.

CONCLUSIONS

In revascularized patients with NSTE-ACS, the extent of CAD and concentrations of NT-proBNP and GDF-15 independently improve prognostication of CVD/spontaneous MI and CVD alone. This information may be useful for selection of patients who might benefit from more intense and/or prolonged antithrombotic treatment. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00391872

Coronary Thrombosis and Major Bleeding After PCI With Drug-Eluting Stents: Risk Scores From PARIS

BACKGROUND

Dual-antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel after percutaneous coronary intervention reduces the risk for coronary thrombotic events (CTEs) at the expense of increasing risk for major bleeding (MB). Metrics to accurately predict the occurrence of each respective event and inform clinical decision making are lacking.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop and validate separate models to predict risks for out-of-hospital thrombotic and bleeding events after percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents.

METHODS

Using data from 4,190 patients treated with drug-eluting stents and enrolled in the PARIS (Patterns of Non-Adherence to Anti-Platelet Regimen in Stented Patients) registry, separate risk scores were developed to predict CTE (defined as the composite of stent thrombosis or myocardial infarction) and MB (defined as the occurrence of a Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 3 or 5 bleed). External validation was performed in the ADAPT-DES (Assessment of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy With Drug-Eluting Stents) registry.

RESULTS

Over 2 years, CTEs occurred in 151 patients (3.8%) and MB in 133 (3.3%). Independent predictors of CTEs included acute coronary syndrome, prior revascularization, diabetes mellitus, renal dysfunction, and current smoking. Independent predictors of MB included older age, body mass index, triple therapy at discharge, anemia, current smoking, and renal dysfunction. Each model displayed moderate levels of discrimination and adequate calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Simple risk scores of baseline clinical variables may be useful to predict risks for ischemic and bleeding events after PCI with DES, thereby facilitating clinical decisions surrounding the optimal duration of DAPT. (Patterns of Non-Adherence to Anti-Platelet Regimen in Stented Patients [PARIS]; NCT00998127).

Improvement in the predictive ability of the Intermountain Mortality Risk Score by adding routinely collected laboratory tests such as albumin, bilirubin, and white cell differential count

Background:

The Intermountain Mortality Risk Score (IMRS), a sex-specific mortality-prediction metric, has proven to be effective in various populations. IMRS is comprised of the complete blood count (CBC), basic metabolic panel (BMP), and age. Whether the addition of factors from the comprehensive metabolic panel (CMP) and white blood cell (WBC) differential count improves risk stratification is unknown.

Methods:

Patients with baseline complete metabolic panel (CMP) and IMRS measurements were randomly assigned (60%/40%) to independent derivation (n=84,913) and validation (n=56,584) populations. A sex-specific risk score based on IMRS methods was computed in the derivation population using adjusted multivariable regression weights from all significant and noncollinear CMP [expanded IMRS (eIMRS)] and, when available, WBC differential components (eIMRS+diff).

Results:

Age averaged 67±16 years for females and 67±15 years for males. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) c-statistics for 30-day death showed marked improvement for the eIMRS compared to the IMRS in both females [0.895 (0.882, 0.908) vs. 0.865 (0.850, 0.880)] and males [0.861 (0.847, 0.876) vs. 0.824 (0.807, 0.841)]. These results persisted for 1-year death: females [0.854 (0.847, 0.862) vs. 0.828 (0.819, 0.836)] and males [0.835 (0.826, 0.844) vs. 0.796 (0.789, 0.808)]. In addition, the eIMRS significantly improved risk reclassification. Further precision was seen when WBC differential components were included.

Conclusions:

The addition of the CMP components to the IMRS improved risk prediction. WBC differential also improved risk score predictive ability. These results suggest that the eIMRS may function even better than IMRS as a tool in patient care, risk-adjustment, and clinical research settings for predicting outcomes.

Low On-Treatment Platelet Reactivity Predicts Long-Term Risk of Bleeding After Elective PCI

BACKGROUND

Bleeding after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) is an important complication with impact on prognosis.

AIM

To evaluate the predictive value of enhanced platelet responsiveness to dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel, for bleeding, after elective PCI.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed multiple electrode aggregometry (MAE) platelet functional tests induced by arachidonic acid (ASPI) and adenosine-diphosphate (ADP) before PCI, and 24 hours after PCI, in 481 elective PCI patients who were followed-up for an average of 15.34 ± 7.19 months. Primary end point was the occurrence of any bleeding, while ischemic major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) was a secondary endpoint. The incidence of total, BARC ≤ 2, and BARC ≥ 3 bleeding, according to BARC classification, was 19, 18, and 1%, respectively. Groups with any, and BARC ≤ 2 bleeding, had a lower average value of MAE ADP test after 24 hours, compared to the group without bleeding: 45.30 ± 18.63 U versus 50.99 ± 19.01 U; P = 0.005; and 45.75 ± 18.96 U versus 50.99 ± 18.99 U; P = 0.01; respectively. Female gender (HR 2.11; CI 1.37-3.25; P = 0.001), previous myocardial infarction (HR 0.56; CI 0.37-0.85; P = 0.006), lower body mass (HR 0.78; CI 0.62-0.98; P = 0.03), and MAE ADP test after 24 hours (HR 0.75; CI 0.61-0.93; P = 0.009) were the independent predictors for any bleeding by Cox univariate analysis. After adjustment, MAE ADP test after 24 hours, was the only independent predictor for any (HR 0.7; CI 0.56-0.87; P = 0.002), and BARC ≤ 2 (HR 0.71; CI 0.56-0.89; P = 0.003) bleeding, by Cox multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

MAE ADP test before and after PCI, was associated with any, and BARC ≤ 2 bleeding after elective PCI.

Prognostic significance of serum creatinine and its change patterns in patients with acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND

In acute coronary syndromes (ACS), serum creatinine (sCr) levels have short- and long-term prognostic value. However, it is possible that repeated evaluations of sCr during hospitalization, rather than measuring sCr value at admission only, might improve risk assessment. We investigated the relationship between sCr baseline value, its changes, and in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with ACS.

METHODS

In 2,756 ACS patients, sCr was measured at hospital admission and then daily, until discharge from coronary care unit. Patients were grouped according to the maximum sCr change observed: <0.3 mg/dL change from baseline (stable renal function [SRF] group), ≥0.3 mg/dL decrease (improved renal function [IRF] group), and ≥0.3 mg/dL increase (worsening renal function [WRF] group).

RESULTS

Of the 2,756 patients, 2,163 (78%) had SRF, 292 (11%) had IRF, and 301 (11%) had WRF. In-hospital mortality in the 3 groups was 0.5%, 2%, and 14% (P < .001), respectively. Peak sCr value was a more powerful predictor of mortality (area under the curve 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.92) than the initial sCr value (area under the curve 0.69, 95% CI 0.63-0.77; P < .001). When sCr and its change patterns during coronary care unit stay were evaluated together, improved mortality risk stratification was found.

CONCLUSIONS

In ACS patients, daily sCr value and its change pattern are stronger predictors of in-hospital mortality than the initial sCr value only; thus, their combined evaluation provides a more accurate and dynamic stratification of patients' risk. Finally, the intermediate mortality risk of IRF patients possibly reflects acute kidney injury started before hospitalization.