In network meta-analysis, most of the information comes from indirect evidence: empirical study

crossnma: An R package to synthesize cross-design evidence and cross-format data using network meta-analysis and network meta-regression

BACKGROUND

Although aggregate data (AD) from randomised clinical trials (RCTs) are used in the majority of network meta-analyses (NMAs), other study designs (e.g., cohort studies and other non-randomised studies, NRS) can be informative about relative treatment effects. The individual participant data (IPD) of the study, when available, are preferred to AD for adjusting for important participant characteristics and to better handle heterogeneity and inconsistency in the network.

RESULTS

We developed the R package crossnma to perform cross-format (IPD and AD) and cross-design (RCT and NRS) NMA and network meta-regression (NMR). The models are implemented as Bayesian three-level hierarchical models using Just Another Gibbs Sampler (JAGS) software within the R environment. The R package crossnma includes functions to automatically create the JAGS model, reformat the data (based on user input), assess convergence and summarize the results. We demonstrate the workflow within crossnma by using a network of six trials comparing four treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

The R package crossnma enables the user to perform NMA and NMR with different data types in a Bayesian framework and facilitates the inclusion of all types of evidence recognising differences in risk of bias.

Spontaneous recovery from neuromuscular block after a single dose of a muscle relaxant in pediatric patients: A systematic review using a network meta-analytic and meta-regression approach

BACKGROUND

Age-related differences in the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBAs) and the short duration of many surgical procedures put pediatric patients at risk of postoperative residual curarization (PORC). To date, the duration of neuromuscular blocking agent effect in children has not been analyzed in a quantitative review. The current meta-analysis aimed to compare spontaneous recovery following administration of various types and doses of neuromuscular blocking agents and to quantify the effect of prognostic variables associated with the recovery time in pediatric patients.

METHOD

We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled clinical trials (CCTs) that compared the time to 25% T1 (t25), from 25% to 75% T1 (RI25-75), and to ≥90% train-of-four (tTOF90) neuromuscular recovery between common neuromuscular blocking agent treatments administered as a single bolus to healthy pediatric participants. We compared spontaneous t25, RI25-75, and tTOF90 between (1) neuromuscular blocking agent treatments and (2) age groups receiving a given neuromuscular blocking agent intervention and anesthesia technique. Bayesian random-effects network and pairwise meta-analyses along with meta-regression were used to evaluate the results.

RESULTS

We used data from 71 randomized controlled trials/controlled clinical trials including 4319 participants. Network meta-analysis allowed for the juxtaposition and ranking of spontaneous t25, RI25-75, and tTOF90 following common neuromuscular blocking agent interventions. For all neuromuscular blocking agents a log-linear relationship between dose and duration of action was found. With the neuromuscular blocking agent treatments studied, the average tTOF90 (mean[CrI95]) in children (>2-11 y) was 41.96 [14.35, 69.50] and 17.06 [5.99, 28.30] min shorter than in neonates (<28 d) and infants (28 d-12 M), respectively. We found a negative log-linear correlation between age and duration of neuromuscular blocking agent effect. The difference in the tTOF90 (mean[CrI95]) between children and other age groups increased by 21.66 [8.82, 34.53] min with the use of aminosteroid neuromuscular blocking agents and by 24.73 [7.92, 41.43] min with the addition of sevoflurane/isoflurane for anesthesia maintenance.

CONCLUSIONS

The times to neuromuscular recovery are highly variable. These can decrease significantly with age and are prolonged when volatile anesthetics are administered. This variability, combined with the short duration of many pediatric surgical procedures, makes quantitative neuromuscular monitoring mandatory even after a single dose of neuromuscular blocking agent.

Shortest path or random walks? A framework for path weights in network meta-analysis

Quantifying the contributions, or weights, of comparisons or single studies to the estimates in a network meta-analysis (NMA) is an active area of research. We extend this work to include the contributions of paths of evidence. We present a general framework, based on the path-design matrix, that describes the problem of finding path contributions as a linear equation. The resulting solutions may have negative coefficients. We show that two known approaches, called shortestpath and randomwalk, are special solutions of this equation, and both meet an optimization criterion, as they minimize the sum of absolute path contributions. In general, there is an infinite set of solutions, which can be identified using the generalized inverse (Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse). We consider two further special approaches. For large networks we find that shortestpath is superior with respect to run time and variability, compared to the other approaches, and is thus recommended in practice. The path-weights framework also has the potential to answer more general research questions in NMA.

Vibration of effects resulting from treatment selection in mixed-treatment comparisons: a multiverse analysis on network meta-analyses of antidepressants in major depressive disorder

OBJECTIVE

It is frequent to find overlapping network meta-analyses (NMAs) on the same topic with differences in terms of both treatments included and effect estimates. We aimed to evaluate the impact on effect estimates of selecting different treatment combinations (ie, network geometries) for inclusion in NMAs.

DESIGN

Multiverse analysis, covering all possible NMAs on different combinations of treatments.

SETTING

Data from a previously published NMA exploring the comparative effectiveness of 22 treatments (21 antidepressants and a placebo) for the treatment of acute major depressive disorder.

PARTICIPANTS

Cipriani et al explored a dataset of 116 477 patients included in 522 randomised controlled trials.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

For each possible treatment selection, we performed an NMA to estimate comparative effectiveness on treatment response and treatment discontinuation for the treatments included (231 between-treatment comparisons). The distribution of effect estimates of between-treatment comparisons across NMAs was computed, and the direction, magnitude and statistical significance of the 1st and 99th percentiles were compared.

RESULTS

4 116 254 different NMAs concerned treatment response. Among possible network geometries, 172/231 (74%) pairwise comparisons exhibited opposite effects between the 1st and 99th percentiles, 57/231 (25%) comparisons exhibited statistically significant results in opposite directions, 118 of 231 (51%) comparisons derived results that were both significant and non-significant at 5% risk and 56/231 (24%) treatment pairs obtained consistent results with only significant differences (or only non-significant differences) at 5% risk. Comparisons based on indirect evidence only were associated with greater variability in effect estimates. Comparisons with small absolute values observed in the complete NMA more frequently obtained statistically significant results in opposite directions. Similar results were observed for treatment discontinuation.

CONCLUSION

In this multiverse analysis, we observed that the selection of treatments to be included in an NMA could have considerable consequences on treatment effect estimations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

https://osf.io/mb5dy.

Effect of different noninvasive ventilation interfaces on the prevention of facial pressure injury: A network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of different noninvasive ventilation interfaces on preventing the facial pressure injury.

METHODS

This network meta-analysis was conducted following the PRISMA reporting guidelines. Seven electronic databases were systematically searched for randomised controlled trials about the comparative effectiveness of different interfaces in preventing facial pressure injury with noninvasive ventilation in adults and newborns from inception to June 2023. The acronym of PICOS was used and the keywords as well as inclusion/exclusion criteria were determined. Study selection and data extraction were performed by two independent reviewers. The Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool was used to assess the methodological quality.

RESULTS

A total of 78 randomised controlled trials involving 7,291 patients were included. The results of network meta-analysis showed that the effectiveness of the eight noninvasive ventilation interfaces on the prevention of facial pressure injury was in the order of: nasal cannula > full-face mask > rotation of nasal mask with nasal prongs > helmet > nasal mask > oronasal mask > nasal prongs > face mask. The use of full-face mask in adults and nasal cannula in newborns had the best effect on preventing the incidence of facial pressure injury.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of full-face mask in adults and nasal cannula in newborns had the most clinical advantage in preventing the incidence of facial pressure injury and were worthy promoting in clinical practice.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE

This study provides a certain theoretical basis for the selection of appropriate interface for patients with noninvasive ventilation. Clinical practitioners should choose the appropriate interfaces based on the patient's specific condition to reduce the incidence of facial pressure injury, enhance patient comfort, and improve the effectiveness of respiratory therapy.

Low awareness of the transitivity assumption in complex networks of interventions: a systematic survey from 721 network meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

The transitivity assumption is the cornerstone of network meta-analysis (NMA). Violating transitivity compromises the credibility of the indirect estimates and, by extent, the estimated treatment effects of the comparisons in the network. The present study offers comprehensive empirical evidence on the completeness of reporting and evaluating transitivity in systematic reviews with multiple interventions.

METHODS

We screened the datasets of two previous empirical studies, resulting in 361 systematic reviews with NMA published between January 2011 and April 2015. We updated our evidence base with an additional 360 systematic reviews with NMA published between 2016 and 2021, employing a pragmatic approach. We devised assessment criteria for reporting and evaluating transitivity using relevant methodological literature and compared their reporting frequency before and after the PRISMA-NMA statement.

RESULTS

Systematic reviews published after PRISMA-NMA were more likely to provide a protocol (odds ratio (OR): 3.94, 95% CI: 2.79-5.64), pre-plan the transitivity evaluation (OR: 3.01, 95% CI: 1.54-6.23), and report the evaluation and results (OR: 2.10, 95% CI: 1.55-2.86) than those before PRISMA-NMA. However, systematic reviews after PRISMA-NMA were less likely to define transitivity (OR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.42-0.79) and discuss the implications of transitivity (OR: 0.48, 95% CI: 0.27-0.85) than those published before PRISMA-NMA. Most systematic reviews evaluated transitivity statistically than conceptually (40% versus 12% before PRISMA-NMA, and 54% versus 11% after PRISMA-NMA), with consistency evaluation being the most preferred (34% before versus 47% after PRISMA-NMA). One in five reviews inferred the plausibility of the transitivity (22% before versus 18% after PRISMA-NMA), followed by 11% of reviews that found it difficult to judge transitivity due to insufficient data. In justifying their conclusions, reviews considered mostly the comparability of the trials (24% before versus 30% after PRISMA-NMA), followed by the consistency evaluation (23% before versus 16% after PRISMA-NMA).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, there has been a slight improvement in reporting and evaluating transitivity since releasing PRISMA-NMA, particularly in items related to the systematic review report. Nevertheless, there has been limited attention to pre-planning the transitivity evaluation and low awareness of the conceptual evaluation methods that align with the nature of the assumption.

Second-generation antipsychotics for Parkinson's disease psychosis: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This network meta-analysis assessed the efficacy, tolerability, and acceptability of second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) for Parkinson's disease psychosis (PDP).

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov for randomized controlled trials investigating SGAs for PDP up to October 26, 2023.

RESULTS

We included 16 trials (N = 1252) investigating clozapine, melperone, olanzapine, pimavanserin, quetiapine, ulotaront, and placebo. In comparisons between SGAs and placebo, the findings were: i) Standardized mean differences, 95% confidence intervals (SMDs, 95%CIs), for psychotic-symptom reduction revealed the first rank of clozapine (-1.31, -1.73 to -0.89), the second rank of pimavanserin, with significant inferiority of quetiapine (SMD = 0.47, 0.02 to 0.92); ii) Mean differences (MDs, 95%CIs) for abnormal movement, as assessed by the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale - Part III, indicated that clozapine had the least motor side effects (-0.92, -2.75 to 0.91); iii) Risk ratios (RRs, 95% CIs) for adverse-effect dropout rates were lowest for melperone (1.02, 0.20 to 5.24); and iv) RRs (95% CIs) for all-cause dropout rates were lowest for clozapine (0.73, 0.42 to 1.25).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with PDP, clozapine may substantially reduce psychotic symptoms with minimal abnormal movement, high acceptability, and moderate overall tolerability. Pimavanserin, not quetiapine, could be an alternative.

Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Serve as the First-Line Treatment for Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

OBJECTIVES

Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy has demonstrated substantial benefits for certain patients. We try to evaluate the merits and demerits of each immunotherapy to aid clinical treatment.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search of the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for randomized clinical trials published as of June 10, 2023. Our study included published clinical trials of ICI monotherapy or combination therapy, along with data on treatment-related adverse events (TRAE). Data regarding survival efficacy and adverse events of each randomized controlled trial (RCT) were collected. The Bayesian random effects model was utilized for the network meta-analysis (NMA).

RESULTS

This study incorporated 19 RCTs, involving 5900 patients. Among 14 treatment regimens, Pembrolizumab combined with chemotherapy emerged as the most promising primary treatment for overall survival (OS) and objective response rate (ORR). Toripalimab combined with chemotherapy exhibited the highest likelihood of becoming the primary treatment for extending progression-free survival (PFS). Durvalumab showed the lowest probability of adverse events, suggesting a safer profile compared with other drugs. Camrelizumab combined with chemotherapy demonstrated a heightened risk of adverse events. Dual ICI Nivolumab/Ipilimumab surpassed Durvalumab/Tremelimumab in terms of ORR and adverse events. The standard of care (SOC) regimen did not exhibit strong performance across the four outcome indicators.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests that the integration of chemotherapy agents with ICIs enhances its efficacy as a first-line treatment for patients with advanced head and neck cancer (HNC).

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

1 Laryngoscope, 134:749-761, 2024.

Twenty years of network meta-analysis: Continuing controversies and recent developments

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is an extension of pairwise meta-analysis (PMA) which combines evidence from trials on multiple treatments in connected networks. NMA delivers internally consistent estimates of relative treatment efficacy, needed for rational decision making. Over its first 20 years NMA's use has grown exponentially, with applications in both health technology assessment (HTA), primarily re-imbursement decisions and clinical guideline development, and clinical research publications. This has been a period of transition in meta-analysis, first from its roots in educational and social psychology, where large heterogeneous datasets could be explored to find effect modifiers, to smaller pairwise meta-analyses in clinical medicine on average with less than six studies. This has been followed by narrowly-focused estimation of the effects of specific treatments at specific doses in specific populations in sparse networks, where direct comparisons are unavailable or informed by only one or two studies. NMA is a powerful and well-established technique but, in spite of the exponential increase in applications, doubts about the reliability and validity of NMA persist. Here we outline the continuing controversies, and review some recent developments. We suggest that heterogeneity should be minimized, as it poses a threat to the reliability of NMA which has not been fully appreciated, perhaps because it has not been seen as a problem in PMA. More research is needed on the extent of heterogeneity and inconsistency in datasets used for decision making, on formal methods for making recommendations based on NMA, and on the further development of multi-level network meta-regression.

Methodological review of NMA bias concepts provides groundwork for the development of a list of concepts for potential inclusion in a new risk of bias tool for network meta-analysis (RoB NMA Tool)

INTRODUCTION

Network meta-analyses (NMAs) have gained popularity and grown in number due to their ability to provide estimates of the comparative effectiveness of multiple treatments for the same condition. The aim of this study is to conduct a methodological review to compile a preliminary list of concepts related to bias in NMAs.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We included papers that present items related to bias, reporting or methodological quality, papers assessing the quality of NMAs, or method papers. We searched MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library and unpublished literature (up to July 2020). We extracted items related to bias in NMAs. An item was excluded if it related to general systematic review quality or bias and was included in currently available tools such as ROBIS or AMSTAR 2. We reworded items, typically structured as questions, into concepts (i.e. general notions).

RESULTS

One hundred eighty-one articles were assessed in full text and 58 were included. Of these articles, 12 were tools, checklists or journal standards; 13 were guidance documents for NMAs; 27 were studies related to bias or NMA methods; and 6 were papers assessing the quality of NMAs. These studies yielded 99 items of which the majority related to general systematic review quality and biases and were therefore excluded. The 22 items we included were reworded into concepts specific to bias in NMAs.

CONCLUSIONS

A list of 22 concepts was included. This list is not intended to be used to assess biases in NMAs, but to inform the development of items to be included in our tool.

Systematic literature review and network meta-analysis of therapies for psoriatic arthritis on patient-reported outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Head-to-head clinical trials are common in psoriasis, but scarce in psoriatic arthritis (PsA), making treatment comparisons between therapeutic classes difficult. This study describes the relative effectiveness of targeted synthetic (ts) and biologic (b) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) on patient-reported outcomes (PROs) through network meta-analysis (NMA).

DESIGN

A systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted in January 2020. Bayesian NMAs were conducted to compare treatments on Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI) and 36-item Short Form (SF-36) Health Survey including Mental Component Summary (MCS) and Physical Component Summary (PCS) scores.

DATA SOURCES

Ovid MEDLINE (including Epub Ahead of Print, In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations and Daily),Embase and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating patients with PsA receiving tsDMARDS, bDMARDs or placebo were included in the SLR; there was no restriction on outcomes.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two independent researchers reviewed all citations. Data for studies meeting all inclusion criteria were extracted into a standardised Excel-based form by one reviewer and validated by a second reviewer. A third reviewer was consulted to resolve any discrepancies, as necessary. Risk of bias was assessed using the The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical effectiveness quality assessment checklist.

RESULTS

In total, 26 RCTs were included. For HAQ-DI, SF-36 PCS and SF-36 MCS scores, intravenous tumour necrosis factor (TNF) alpha inhibitors generally ranked higher than most other classes of therapies available to treat patients with PsA. For almost all outcomes, several interleukin (IL)-23, IL-17A, subcutaneous TNF and IL-12/23 agents offered comparable improvement, while cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated antigen 4, phosphodiesterase-4 and Janus kinase inhibitors often had the lowest efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

While intravenous TNFs may provide some improvements in PROs relative to several other tsDMARDs and bDMARDs for the treatment of patients with PsA, differences between classes of therapies across outcomes were small.

Efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors for advanced non-small cell lung cancer with or without PD-L1 selection: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are standard treatments for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); however, evidence regarding their relative efficacy and safety is lacking. This study compared the efficacy and safety of all currently available ICI treatments in patients with advanced NSCLC to identify optimal treatment regimens.

METHODS

PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and Embase databases were systematically searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published up to August 8, 2022. The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary outcomes included objective response rate (ORR) and adverse events (AEs).

RESULTS

Forty RCTs involving 22,526 patients were selected, and a total of 26 treatment regimens were identified. Treatment with anti-programmed cell death protein-1 (anti-PD-1) provided superior OS compared with anti-programmed death ligand 1 (anti-PD-L1) treatment. ICIs plus platinum-based chemotherapy (PBC) were superior to ICIs treatment alone, although the addition of PBC increased treatment toxicity. Cemiplimab ranked first for OS and lowest for any-grade AEs in advanced NSCLC patients without PD-L1 selection. Regarding grade ≥3 AEs, the toxicity of ICI monotherapy or ICI-ICI combination was consistently lower than that of the other treatments. For patients without PD-L1 selection, cemiplimab showed the best OS, pembrolizumab plus docetaxel (Pem-DXT) showed the best PFS, and atezolizumab plus bevacizumab and PBC (Atezo-Beva-PBC) showed the best ORR. Pembrolizumab plus PBC and Atezo-Beva-PBC were the most likely optimal treatments for OS and PFS in patients with PD-L1 expression <1%, respectively. In patients with PD-L1 expression ≥1%, treatment regimens containing anti-PD-1 provided superior OS benefits compared with those of anti-PD-L1 treatment, and sintilimab plus PBC (Sint-PBC) provided the best OS benefit; as for PFS, ICI plus PBC consistently showed greater PFS benefits than ICI or PBC alone. For patients with anti-PD-L1 expression of 1-49%, camrelizumab plus PBC provided the best benefit for OS and PFS among included treatment. Durvalumab-tremelimumab-PBC and Atezo-Beva-PBC respectively presented the highest OS and PFS for patients with PD-L1 expression ≥50%. Moreover, cemiplimab and Atezo-Beva-PBC yielded the best OS and PFS benefits as first-line treatments for patients with advanced NSCLC, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although ICI plus PBC likely resulted in superior survival outcomes compared to ICI treatment alone, it did increase toxicity. Cemiplimab presented a well-balanced efficacy and safety profile in advanced NSCLC treatment. Our findings with the current ICIs comparisons will aid future trials for cancer immunotherapy.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ , CRD42022323879.

Efficacy of opioids for traumatic pain in the emergency department: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis

Aim: To systematically assess and rank the efficacy of opioid medications for traumatic pain in the emergency department in terms of pain relief, adverse events and rescue analgesia. Methods: Four databases were systematically searched until 26 September 2022: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. Outcomes were pain relief, adverse events (dizziness, hypotension, pruritus, sedation), and rescue analgesia. For each outcome, network plots were drawn to exhibit direct and indirect comparisons, and rank probabilities were utilized to rank the efficacy of different opioids. Results: Twenty studies of 3,040 patients were eligible for this network meta-analysis. According to the rank probabilities, the top three analgesic medications for pain relief may be sufentanil (78.29% probability of ranking first), buprenorphine (48.54% probability of ranking second) and fentanyl (53.25% probability of ranking third); buprenorphine (31.20%), fentanyl (20.14%) and sufentanil (21.55%) were least likely to cause dizziness; the top three analgesic medications which were least likely to cause hypotension were buprenorphine (81.64%), morphine (45.02%) and sufentanil (17.27%); butorphanol (40.56%), morphine (41.11%) and fentanyl (14.63%) were least likely to cause pruritus; the top three medications which were least likely to cause sedation were hydrocodone + acetaminophen (97.92%), morphine (61.85%) and butorphanol (55.24%); patients who received oxycodone (83.64%), butorphanol (38.31%) and fentanyl (25.91%) were least likely to need rescue analgesia in sequence. Conclusion: Sufentanil, buprenorphine and fentanyl may be superior to other opioid medications in terms of pain relief and the incidence of dizziness, hypotension and pruritus, which might be selected as opioid analgesics for traumatic pain in the emergency setting.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors in first-line therapies of metastatic or early triple-negative breast cancer: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Background

The optimal first-line immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment strategy for metastatic or early triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) has not yet been determined as a result of various randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy and safety of ICIs in patients with metastatic or early TNBC.

Methods

RCTs comparing the efficacy and safety of ICIs in patients with TNBC were included in the studies. Based on PRISMA guidelines, we estimated pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and odds ratios (ORs) using random-effects models of Bayesian network meta-analysis. Primary outcomes were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes included pathologic complete response rate (pCR), grade ≥ 3 treatment-related adverse events (trAEs), immune-related adverse events (irAEs), and grade ≥ 3 irAEs.

Results

The criteria for eligibility were met by a total of eight RCTs involving 4,589 patients with TNBC. When ICIs were used in patients without programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) selection, there was a trend toward improved PFS, OS, and pCR, without significant differences. Pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy is superior to other treatment regimens in terms of survival for TNBC patients based on Bayesian ranking profiles. Subgroup analysis by PD-L1 positive population indicated similar results, and atezolizumab plus chemotherapy provided better survival outcomes. Among grade ≥ 3 trAEs and any grade irAEs, there was no statistically significant difference among different ICI agents. The combination of ICIs with chemotherapy was associated with a higher incidence of grade ≥ 3 irAEs. Based on rank probability, the ICI plus chemotherapy group was more likely to be associated with grade ≥ 3 trAEs, any grade irAEs, and grade ≥ 3 irAEs. Hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism were the most frequent irAEs in patients receiving ICI.

Conclusions

ICI regimens had relatively greater efficacy and safety profile. Pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy and atezolizumab plus chemotherapy seem to be superior first-line treatments for intention-to-treat and PD-L1-positive TNBC patients, respectively. It may be useful for making clinical decisions to evaluate the efficacy and safety of different ICIs based on our study.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, identifier CRD42022354643.

The effectiveness of mind-body approaches for enhancing resilience in older adults: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Resilience in older adults is associated with good well-being and resilience training has been shown to be beneficial. Mind-body approaches (MBAs) combine physical and psychological training in age-appropriate exercise programs.This study aims to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of different modes of MBAs in enhancing resilience in older adults.

METHOD

Electronic databases and a manual search were searched to identify randomized controlled trials of different MBA modes. Data from the included studies were extracted for fixed-effect pairwise meta-analyses. Quality and risk were assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) and Cochrane's Risk of Bias tool, respectively. Pooled effect sizes with a standardized mean difference (SMD) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to quantify the impact of MBAs in enhancing resilience in older adults. Network meta-analysis was employed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of different interventions. The study was registered in PROSPERO (Registration No. CRD42022352269).

RESULTS

Nine studies were included in our analysis. Pairwise comparisons indicated that MBAs, regardless of whether they were related to yoga, could significantly enhancing resilience in older adults (SMD: 0.26, 95% CI 0.09-0.44). With strong consistency, a network meta-analysis showed that physical and psychological programs and yoga-related programs were associated with resilience improvement (SMD: 0.44, 95% CI 0.01-0.88 and SMD: 0.42, 95% CI 0.06-0.79, respectively).

CONCLUSION

High quality evidence demonstrates that two MBA modes-physical and psychological programs and yoga-related programs-enhance resilience in older adults. However, long-term clinical verification is required to confirm our results.

Comparative efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors for unresectable advanced melanoma: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have entered the treatment paradigm for unresectable advanced melanoma, but there is a lack of evidence regarding its relative efficacy and safety. This study aim to compare the efficacy and safety of ICIs in patients with advanced unresectable melanoma.

METHODS

Studies included randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that compared ICIs, or combination therapy of ICIs, or with chemotherapy drugs, different ICIs, or one of the ICIs at different dosing schedules. Random-effects models of Bayesian network meta-analysis were performed following the PRISMA reporting guideline. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary outcomes included objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and adverse events.

PROSPERO

CRD42021229086.

RESULTS

Twenty-four RCTs with 18 different treatment regimens for advanced melanoma involving 10,090 patients were included. Overall, nivolumab 1 mg/kg plus ipilimumab 3 mg/kg treatment regimen were associated with the highest beneficial effect on OS, PFS, and DCR. Closely followed by nivolumab 3 mg/kg plus ipilimumab 1 mg/kg, and nivolumab plus relatlimab treatment regimens. However, three regimens had less favorable safety profiles. Although ipilimumab 0.3 mg/kg was ranked as the best options with the lowest risk of grade ≥ 3 treatment or immune-related adverse events, less therapeutic benefit was performed. The pembrolizumab 10 mg/kg regimen may be the preferred treatment with relative higher efficiency and safety among the ICIs regimens reported, as well as the nivolumab 3 mg/kg regimen. Head-to-head trials showed similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shown the preferred treatment regimens with relatively higher efficiency and safety among the reported ICI regimens. Our results may complement the current standard of care, while its direct drug comparisons will aid future trials.

Hair regrowth treatment efficacy and resistance in androgenetic alopecia: A systematic review and continuous Bayesian network meta-analysis

Background

Androgenetic alopecia (AGA) affects almost half the population, and several treatments intending to regenerate a normal scalp hair phenotype are used. This is the first study comparing treatment efficacy response and resistance using standardized continuous outcomes.

Objective

To systematically compare the relative efficacy of treatments used for terminal hair (TH) regrowth in women and men with AGA.

Methods

A systematic literature review was conducted (from inception to August 11, 2021) to identify randomized, Placebo-controlled trials with ≥ 20 patients and reporting changes in TH density after 24 weeks. Efficacy was analyzed by sex at 12 and 24 weeks using Bayesian network meta-analysis (B-NMA) and compared to frequentist and continuous outcomes profiles.

Results

The search identified 2,314 unique articles. Ninety-eight were included for full-text review, and 17 articles met the inclusion criteria for data extraction and analyses. Eligible treatments included ALRV5XR, Dutasteride 0.5 mg/day, Finasteride 1 mg/day, low-level laser comb treatment (LLLT), Minoxidil 2% and 5%, Nutrafol, and Viviscal. At 24 weeks, the B-NMA regrowth efficacy in TH/cm² and significance (^**) in women were ALRV5XR: 30.09^**, LLLT: 16.62^**, Minoxidil 2%: 12.13^**, Minoxidil 5%: 10.82^**, and Nutrafol: 7.32^**, and in men; ALRV5XR: 21.03^**, LLLT: 18.75^**, Dutasteride: 18.37^**, Viviscal: 13.23, Minoxidil 5%: 13.13^**, Finasteride: 12.38, and Minoxidil 2%: 10.54. Two distinct TH regrowth response profiles were found; Continuous: ALRV5XR regrowth rates were linear in men and accelerated in women; Resistant: after 12 weeks, LLLT, Nutrafol, and Viviscal regrowth rates attenuated while Dutasteride and Finasteride plateaued; Minoxidil 2% and 5% lost some regrowth. There were no statistical differences for the same treatment between women and men. B-NMA provided more accurate, statistically relevant, and conservative results than the frequentist-NMA.

Conclusion

Some TH regrowth can be expected from most AGA treatments with less variability in women than men. Responses to drug treatments were rapid, showing strong early efficacy followed by the greatest resistance effects from flatlining to loss of regrowth after 12-16 weeks. Finasteride, Minoxidil 2% and Viviscal in men were not statistically different from Placebo. LLLT appeared more efficacious than pharmaceuticals. The natural product formulation ALRV5XR showed better efficacy in all tested parameters without signs of treatment resistance (see Graphical abstract).

Systematic review registration

www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.asp?ID=CRD42021268040, identifier CRD42021268040.

Antidepressants for depressed patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of short-term randomized controlled trials

This network meta-analysis compared the short-term treatment effects of different antidepressants on depression severity and HbA1c in depressed patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We searched 8- to 24-week randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Clinicaltrials.gov on November 22, 2021. We included 12 RCTs (N = 792) studying agomelatine, citalopram, escitalopram, fluoxetine, nortriptyline, no treatment, paroxetine, sertraline, vortioxetine, and placebo. Compared to placebo, the standardized mean differences and 95% confidence intervals (SMD, 95%CIs) for depression severity reduction revealed that escitalopram ranked first (-2.93, -3.92 to -1.94), followed by agomelatine (-0.68, -1.15 to -0.20). Compared to placebo, the mean differences (MDs, 95%CIs) for HbA1c reduction suggested that vortioxetine ranked first (-2.35, -4.13 to -0.57), followed by escitalopram (-1.00, -1.42 to -0.57) and agomelatine (-0.79, -1.16 to -0.42). Limited evidence from short-term trials in depressed patients with T2DM suggests that escitalopram and agomelatine may have a favorable profile in reducing depression and controlling glycemic goals, but more trials are required.

Comparative Impact of Pharmacological Therapies on Cluster Headache Management: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

It is important to find effective and safe pharmacological options for managing cluster headache (CH) because there is limited evidence from studies supporting the general efficacy and safety of pharmacological therapies. This systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) analyzed published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatments in patients with CH. The PubMed and Embase databases were searched to identify RCTs that evaluated the efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatments for CH. Efficacy outcomes included frequency and duration of attacks, pain-free rate, and the use of rescue agents. Safety outcomes were evaluated based on the number of patients who experienced adverse events. A total of 23 studies were included in the analysis. The frequency of attacks was reduced (mean difference (MD) = −1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −1.62 to −0.47; p = 0.0004), and the pain-free rate was increased (odds ratio (OR) = 3.89, 95% CI = 2.76−5.48; p < 0.00001) in the pharmacological treatment group, with a lower frequency of rescue agent use than the placebo group. Preventive, acute, and triptan or non-triptan therapies did not show significant differences in efficacy (p > 0.05). In the NMA, different results were shown among the interventions; for example, zolmitriptan 5 mg was more effective than zolmitriptan 10 mg in the pain-free outcome (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.19−0.82; p < 0.05). Pharmacological treatment was shown to be more effective than placebo to manage CH with differences among types of therapies and individual interventions, and it was consistently shown to be associated with the development of adverse events. Thus, individualized therapy approaches should be applied to treat CH in real-world practice.

Comparative Effectiveness of Bariatric Surgeries in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2: a Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), bariatric surgery appears to be more effective than medical treatment (MT) at improving glycaemic control and decreasing cardiovascular risk. However, long-term effectiveness has not been systematically assessed using randomised controlled trials. In this study, we aimed to systematically assess randomised controlled trials, with at least 5 years of follow-up, on bariatric surgery in patients with T2DM and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2, as well as to compare different bariatric procedures.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

PubMed, SCOPUS and Web of Science were searched. We performed a network meta-analysis to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of the different procedures and MT in terms of full T2DM remission, weight loss, complications and cardiometabolic biomarkers. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool and CINeMA.

RESULTS

We included 11 primary studies. Laparoscopic one-anastomosis gastric bypass (LOAGB) was found to be one of the most effective treatments for full remission of T2DM (I2 = 0, inconsistency p value = 0.9223). Biliopancreatic diversion without duodenal switch was found to be more effective than laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding regarding percent total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein change. Regarding percent high-density lipoprotein and weight change, all analysed surgical treatments were shown to be more effective than MT. The confidence rating in our results was overall moderate, but most studies had high risk of performance and detection bias.

CONCLUSION

Bariatric surgery seems to be effective for T2DM remission. LOAGB appears to be a good option in this context, and a possible alternative to laparoscopic duodenal switch, but the included primary studies in our review are not sufficiently powered to establish a more definitive conclusion. More studies with longer follow-up times are needed to comprehensively assess bariatric surgery in T2DM.

Comparing the diagnostic performance of radiotracers in recurrent prostate cancer: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Purpose

Many radiotracers are currently available for the detection of recurrent prostate cancer (rPC), yet many have not been compared head-to-head in comparative imaging studies. There is therefore an unmet need for evidence synthesis to guide evidence-based decisions in the selection of radiotracers. The objective of this study was therefore to assess the detection rate of various radiotracers for the rPC.

Methods

The PUBMED, EMBASE, and the EU and NIH trials databases were searched without date or language restriction for comparative imaging tracers for 13 radiotracers of principal interest. Key search terms included 18F-PSMA-1007, 18F-DCPFyl, 68Ga-PSMA-11, 18F-PSMA-11, 68Ga-PSMA-I&T, 68Ga-THP-PSMA, 64Cu-PSMA-617, 18F-JK-PSMA-7, 18F-Fluciclovine, 18F-FABC, 18F-Choline, 11C-Choline, and 68Ga-RM2. Studies reporting comparative imaging data in humans in rPC were selected. Single armed studies and matched pair analyses were excluded. Twelve studies with eight radiotracers were eligible for inclusion. Two independent reviewers screened all studies (using the PRISMA-NMA statement) for inclusion criteria, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias (using the QUADAS-2 tool). A network meta-analysis was performed using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian analysis to obtain estimated detection rate odds ratios for each tracer combination.

Results

A majority of studies were judged to be at risk of publication bias. With the exception of 18F-PSMA-1007, little difference in terms of detection rate was revealed between the three most commonly used PSMA-radiotracers (⁶⁸Ga-PSMA-11, ¹⁸F-PSMA-1007, ¹⁸F-DCFPyl), which in turn showed clear superiority to choline and fluciclovine using the derived network.

Conclusion

Differences in patient-level detection rates were observed between PSMA- and choline-radiotracers. However, there is currently insufficient evidence to favour one of the four routinely used PSMA-radioligands (PSMA-11, PSMA-1007, PSMA-I&T, and DCFPyl) over another owing to the limited evidence base and risk of publication bias revealed by our systematic review. A further limitation was lack of reporting on diagnostic accuracy, which might favour radiotracers with low specificity in an analysis restricted only to detection rate. The NMA derived can be used to inform the design of future clinical trials and highlight areas where current evidence is weak.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00259-021-05210-9.

Evidence inconsistency degrees of freedom in Bayesian network meta-analysis

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a popular tool to synthesize direct and indirect evidence for simultaneously comparing multiple treatments, while evidence inconsistency greatly threatens its validity. One may use the inconsistency degrees of freedom (ICDF) to assess the potential that an NMA might suffer from inconsistency. Multi-arm studies provide intrinsically consistent evidence and complicate the ICDF's calculation; they commonly appear in NMAs. The existing ICDF measure may not feasibly handle multi-arm studies. Motivated from the effective numbers of parameters of Bayesian hierarchical models, we propose new ICDF measures in generic NMAs that may contain multi-arm studies. Under the fixed- or random-effects setting, the new ICDF measure is the difference between the effective numbers of parameters of the consistency and inconsistency NMA models. We used artificial NMAs created based on an illustrative example and 39 empirical NMAs to evaluate the performance of the existing and new measures. In NMAs with two-arm studies only, the proposed ICDF measure under the fixed-effects setting was nearly the same with the existing measure. Among the empirical NMAs, 27 (69%) contained at least one multi-arm study. The existing measure was not applicable to them, while the proposed measures led to interpretable ICDFs in all NMAs.

Comparative efficacy of placebos in short-term antidepressant trials for major depression: a secondary meta-analysis of placebo-controlled trials

BACKGROUND

The issue of unblinded outcome-assessors and patients has repeatedly been stressed as a flaw in allegedly double-blind antidepressant trials. Unblinding bias can for example result from a drug's marked side effects. If such unblinding bias is present for a given drug, then it might be expected that the placebos of that drug are rated significantly less effective than that of other antidepressants.

METHODS

To test this hypothesis, the present exploratory analysis conducted a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) comparing the efficacy of 19 different placebos in placebo-controlled trials provided in the dataset by Cipriani et al. (Lancet 2018; 391: 1357-66). Primary outcome was efficacy (continuous) estimated on the standardized mean difference (SMD) scale and defined as the pre-post change on the Hamilton Depression scale (HAMD-17), on which information was available in N = 258 trials.

RESULTS

Comparative placebo ranking suggested mirtazapine-placebo (SMD -2.0 [- 5.0-1.0 95% CrI]) to be the most, and amitriptyline- (SMD 1.2 [- 1.6-3.9 95% CrI]) and trazodone- (SMD 2.1 [- 0.9-5.2 95% CrI]) placebos to be the least effective placebos. Other placebos suggested to be more effective than amitriptyline- and trazodone-placebos (based on 95% CrIs excluding zero) were citalopram, desvenlafaxine, duloxetine, escitalopram, fluoxetine, sertraline, and venlafaxine placebos. These NMA results were corroborated by the observation that the relative efficacy between drug and placebo was considerably larger for amitriptyline and trazodone than for instance mirtazapine, duloxetine, and venlafaxine, supported by a small and insignificant correlation between drug-efficacy and placebo-efficacy (r = - 0.202, p = 0.408).

DISCUSSION

The present exploratory NMA indicates that distinguishable side effects of older drugs may unblind outcome-assessors thus resulting in overestimation of the average drug-placebo difference and underrating bias in placebo-arms, particularly for the older antidepressant drugs amitriptyline and trazodone. If confirmed in prospective studies, these findings suggest that efficacy rankings for antidepressants are susceptible to bias and should be considered unreliable or misleading. The analysis is limited by the focus on the single-comparison placebos (76%, i.e., placebos assessed in two-arm trials), since double-comparison placebos (25%, i.e., placebos assessed in three-arm trials) are hard to interpret and therefore not included in the present interpretation. Another limitation is the problem of multiplicity, which was only approximately accounted for in the Bayesian NMA by modelling treatment effects as exchangeable.