Risk prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for cardiopulmonary support: The ECMO-ACCEPTS score

Prevalence and risk factors for in-hospital mortality of adult patients on veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for cardiogenic shock and cardiac arrest: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To synthesize quantitative research findings on the prevalence and risk factors for in-hospital mortality of patients on veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO).

METHODS

A comprehensive search was conducted for the period from May 2008 to December 2023 by searching the five electronic databases of PubMed, CINAHL, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Cochrane library. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The meta-analysis estimated the pooled odds ratio or standard mean difference and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

A total of twenty-five studies with 10,409 patients were included in the analysis. The overall in-hospital mortality of patients on VA-ECMO was 56.7 %. In the subgroup analysis, in-hospital mortality of VA-ECMO for cardiogenic shock and cardiac arrest was 49.2 % and 75.2 %, respectively. The number of significant factors associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality in the pre-ECMO period (age, body weight, creatinine, chronic kidney disease, pH, and lactic acid) was greater than that in the intra- and post-ECMO periods. Renal replacement, bleeding, and lower limb ischemia were the most significant risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients receiving VA-ECMO.

CONCLUSION

Early detection of the identified risk factors can contribute to reducing in-hospital mortality in patients on VA-ECMO. Intensive care unit nurses should provide timely and appropriate care before, during, and after VA-ECMO.

IMPLICATIONS FOR CLINICAL PRACTICE

Intensive care unit nurses should be knowledgeable about factors associated with the in-hospital mortality of patients on VA-ECMO to improve outcomes. The present findings may contribute to developing guidelines for reducing in-hospital mortality among patients considering ECMO.

Acute brain injury risk prediction models in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation patients with tree-based machine learning: An Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry analysis

Objective

We aimed to determine if machine learning can predict acute brain injury and to identify modifiable risk factors for acute brain injury in patients receiving venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

Methods

We included adults (age ≥18 years) receiving venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry (2009-2021). Our primary outcome was acute brain injury: central nervous system ischemia, intracranial hemorrhage, brain death, and seizures. We used Random Forest, CatBoost, LightGBM, and XGBoost machine learning algorithms (10-fold leave-1-out cross-validation) to predict and identify features most important for acute brain injury. We extracted 65 total features: demographics, pre-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation/on-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation laboratory values, and pre-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation/on-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation settings.

Results

Of 35,855 patients receiving venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (nonextracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation) (median age of 57.8 years, 66% were male), 7.7% (n = 2769) experienced acute brain injury. In venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (nonextracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation), the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves to predict acute brain injury, central nervous system ischemia, and intracranial hemorrhage were 0.67, 0.67, and 0.62, respectively. The true-positive, true-negative, false-positive, false-negative, positive, and negative predictive values were 33%, 88%, 12%, 67%, 18%, and 94%, respectively, for acute brain injury. Longer extracorporeal membrane oxygenation duration, higher 24-hour extracorporeal membrane oxygenation pump flow, and higher on-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation partial pressure of oxygen were associated with acute brain injury. Of 10,775 patients receiving extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (median age of 57.1 years, 68% were male), 16.5% (n = 1787) experienced acute brain injury. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curves for acute brain injury, central nervous system ischemia, and intracranial hemorrhage were 0.72, 0.73, and 0.69, respectively. Longer extracorporeal membrane oxygenation duration, older age, and higher 24-hour extracorporeal membrane oxygenation pump flow were associated with acute brain injury.

Conclusions

In the largest study predicting neurological complications with machine learning in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, longer extracorporeal membrane oxygenation duration and higher 24-hour pump flow were associated with acute brain injury in nonextracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation and extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

The IMPACT Score: A New Score to Predict the Risk of Early Mortality in Cardiogenic Shock Patients Treated With Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

OBJECTIVES

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) requires considerable human and financial resources. Few studies have focused on early mortality (ie, occurring within 72 hours after VA-ECMO implantation). The objective of this study was to establish a prognosis score-the IMPACT score (prediction of early mortality associated with VA-ECMO using preimplantation characteristics)-by determining the risk factors associated with early mortality.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective and observational study.

SETTING

The study was conducted at a University hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

This single-center retrospective study included 147 patients treated with VA-ECMO for cardiogenic shock between 2014 and 2021.

METHODS

The primary outcome was early mortality (ie, occurring within 72 hours after VA-ECMO implantation). Multivariate logistic regression was performed using a bootstrapping methodology to identify factors independently associated with early mortality. To construct the score, identified variables had points (pts) assigned corresponding to their odds ratio.

RESULTS

A total of 147 patients were included in the study. Early mortality (<72 hours) was 26% (38 patients). Four variables were established: cardiac arrest (2 pts), lactate levels (3 pts), platelet count <100 g/L (4 pts), and renal-replacement therapy (5 pts). The IMPACT score had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 (95% CI 0.86-0.70) to predict early mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In the authors' experience, 26% of patients treated with VA-ECMO presented early mortality. The IMPACT score is a reliable predictor of early mortality and may assist with VA-ECMO initiation decision-making.

Predicting Acute Brain Injury in Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Patients with Tree-Based Machine Learning: Analysis of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization Registry

Objective

To determine if machine learning (ML) can predict acute brain injury (ABI) and identify modifiable risk factors for ABI in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) patients.

Design

Retrospective cohort study of the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) Registry (2009-2021).

Setting

International, multicenter registry study of 676 ECMO centers.

Patients

Adults (≥18 years) supported with VA-ECMO or extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR).

Interventions

None.

Measurements and Main Results

Our primary outcome was ABI: central nervous system (CNS) ischemia, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), brain death, and seizures. We utilized Random Forest, CatBoost, LightGBM and XGBoost ML algorithms (10-fold leave-one-out cross-validation) to predict and identify features most important for ABI. We extracted 65 total features: demographics, pre-ECMO/on-ECMO laboratory values, and pre-ECMO/on-ECMO settings.Of 35,855 VA-ECMO (non-ECPR) patients (median age=57.8 years, 66% male), 7.7% (n=2,769) experienced ABI. In VA-ECMO (non-ECPR), the area under the receiver-operator characteristics curves (AUC-ROC) to predict ABI, CNS ischemia, and ICH was 0.67, 0.67, and 0.62, respectively. The true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative, positive, and negative predictive values were 33%, 88%, 12%, 67%, 18%, and 94%, respectively for ABI. Longer ECMO duration, higher 24h ECMO pump flow, and higher on-ECMO PaO2 were associated with ABI.Of 10,775 ECPR patients (median age=57.1 years, 68% male), 16.5% (n=1,787) experienced ABI. The AUC-ROC for ABI, CNS ischemia, and ICH was 0.72, 0.73, and 0.69, respectively. The true positive, true negative, false positive, false negative, positive, and negative predictive values were 61%, 70%, 30%, 39%, 29% and 90%, respectively, for ABI. Longer ECMO duration, younger age, and higher 24h ECMO pump flow were associated with ABI.

Conclusions

This is the largest study predicting neurological complications on sufficiently powered international ECMO cohorts. Longer ECMO duration and higher 24h pump flow were associated with ABI in both non-ECPR and ECPR VA-ECMO.

Effectiveness of VA-ECMO plus intra-aortic balloon pump for cardiac shock in patients with type A aortic dissection: a case series

Limited reports exist on the utilization of venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) following aortic dissection surgery, possibly due to concerns regarding complications. This case series aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of using VA-ECMO in combination with intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) for managing postoperative cardiogenic shock in patients with type A aortic dissection (AAD). The study included nine patients with an average age of 57.0 ± 9.5 years. The patients underwent various surgical procedures, including coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and aortic root reconstruction. The results showed that the combined use of VA-ECMO and IABP was feasible and effective in managing postoperative cardiogenic shock in AAD patients. However, the in-hospital mortality rate was high, with six out of nine patients succumbing to the condition. Among the patients who received VA-ECMO plus IABP in the operating room, four were successfully weaned from VA-ECMO, and three survived with a mean follow-up of 20 months. The study also highlighted the potential risks of renal complications associated with VA-ECMO and IABP. The findings suggest that the combined therapy of VA-ECMO and IABP may be beneficial for patients who have difficulty weaning from cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) after AAD surgery.

Urine output as one of the most important features in differentiating in-hospital death among patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a random forest approach

BACKGROUND

It is common to support cardiovascular function in critically ill patients with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). The purpose of this study was to identify patients receiving ECMO with a considerable risk of dying in hospital using machine learning algorithms.

METHODS

A total of 1342 adult patients on ECMO support were randomly assigned to the training and test groups. The discriminatory power (DP) for predicting in-hospital mortality was tested using both random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms.

RESULTS

Urine output on the first day of ECMO implantation was found to be one of the most predictive features that were related to in-hospital death in both RF and LR models. For those with oliguria, the hazard ratio for 1 year mortality was 1.445 (p < 0.001, 95% CI 1.265-1.650).

CONCLUSIONS

Oliguria within the first 24 h was deemed especially significant in differentiating in-hospital death and 1 year mortality.

ECMO PAL: using deep neural networks for survival prediction in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

PURPOSE

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a complex and high-risk life support modality used in severe cardiorespiratory failure. ECMO survival scores are used clinically for patient prognostication and outcomes risk adjustment. This study aims to create the first artificial intelligence (AI)-driven ECMO survival score to predict in-hospital mortality based on a large international patient cohort.

METHODS

A deep neural network, ECMO Predictive Algorithm (ECMO PAL) was trained on a retrospective cohort of 18,167 patients from the international Extracorporeal Life Support Organisation (ELSO) registry (2017-2020), and performance was measured using fivefold cross-validation. External validation was performed on all adult registry patients from 2021 (N = 5015) and compared against existing prognostication scores: SAVE, Modified SAVE, and ECMO ACCEPTS for predicting in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Mean age was 56.8 ± 15.1 years, with 66.7% of patients being male and 50.2% having a pre-ECMO cardiac arrest. Cross-validation demonstrated an inhospital mortality sensitivity and precision of 82.1 ± 0.2% and 77.6 ± 0.2%, respectively. Validation accuracy was only 2.8% lower than training accuracy, reducing from 75.5% to 72.7% [99% confidence interval (CI) 71.1-74.3%]. ECMO PAL accuracy outperformed the ECMO ACCEPTS (54.7%), SAVE (61.1%), and Modified SAVE (62%) scores.

CONCLUSIONS

ECMO PAL is the first AI-powered ECMO survival score trained and validated on large international patient cohorts. ECMO PAL demonstrated high generalisability across ECMO regions and outperformed existing, widely used scores. Beyond ECMO, this study highlights how large international registry data can be leveraged for AI prognostication for complex critical care therapies.

Validation of the prognostic scoring system for inhospital mortality prediction in cardiogenic shock patients requiring venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

BACKGROUND

A few prognostic scoring systems have been developed for predicting mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock requiring veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO), albeit with variations in performance. This study aimed to assess and compare various mortality prediction models in a cohort of patients receiving VA-ECMO following cardiogenic shock or arrest.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 77 patients with cardiogenic shock who were placed on VA-ECMO support between March 2014 and August 2021. The APACHE II, SAPS II, SAVE, Modified SAVE, ENCOURAGE, and ECMO-ACCEPTS scores were calculated for each patient to predict the in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Fifty-six (72.7%) patients died. All prediction model scores, except the ECMO-ACCEPTS, differed significantly between non-survivors and survivors as follows: ENCOURAGE, 23 versus 16 (p < 0.001); SAVE, -6 versus -3 (p = 0.008); Modified SAVE, -5 versus 0 (p = 0.005); APACHE II, 32 versus 22 (p = 0.009); and SAPS II, 67 versus 49 (p = 0.002). The ENCOURAGE score demonstrated the best discriminatory ability with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.7-0.81). All prognostic scoring systems possessed limited calibration ability. However, the SAPS II, SAVE, and ENCOURAGE scores had lower Akaike and Bayesian information criteria values, which were consistent with the results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic test, indicating better performance than the other scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The ENCOURAGE score can help predict in-hospital mortality in all subsets of VA-ECMO patients, even though it was originally designed to predict intensive care unit mortality in the post-acute myocardial infarction setting.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aortic valve replacement procedures in Germany

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has caused the deferral of millions of elective procedures, likely resulting in a backlog of cases. We estimate the number of postponed surgical aortic valve replacement (sAVR) and transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedures during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.

METHODS

Using German national records, all isolated TAVR and sAVR procedures between 2007 and 2020 were identified. Using weekly TAVR and sAVR procedures between 2017 and 2019, we created a forecast for 2020 and compared it with the observed number of procedures in 2020.

RESULTS

In Germany, a total of 225,398 isolated sAVR and 159,638 isolated TAVR procedures were conducted between 2007 and 2020 that were included in our analysis. The reduction in all AVR procedures (sAVR and TAVR) for the entire year 2020 was 19.07% (95%CI: 15.19-22.95%). During the first wave of the pandemic (week 12-21), the mean weekly reduction was 32.06% (23.44-40.68%) and during the second wave of the pandemic (week 41-52), the mean weekly reduction was 25.58% (14.19-36.97%). The number of sAVR procedures decreased more than the number of TAVR procedures (24.63% vs. 16.42% for the entire year 2020).

CONCLUSION

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a substantial postponing of AVR procedures in Germany. Postponing was higher for sAVR than for TAVR procedures and less pronounced during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impella Versus VA-ECMO for Patients with Cardiogenic Shock: Comprehensive Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analyses

Impella and VA-ECMO are two possible therapeutic courses for the treatment of patients with cardiogenic shock (CS). The study aims to perform a systematic literature review and meta-analyses of a comprehensive set of clinical and socio-economic outcomes observed when using Impella or VA-ECMO with patients under CS. A systematic literature review was performed in Medline, and Web of Science databases on 21 February 2022. Nonoverlapping studies with adult patients supported for CS with Impella or VA-ECMO were searched. Study designs including RCTs, observational studies, and economic evaluations were considered. Data on patient characteristics, type of support, and outcomes were extracted. Additionally, meta-analyses were performed on the most relevant and recurring outcomes, and results shown using forest plots. A total of 102 studies were included, 57% on Impella, 43% on VA-ECMO. The most common outcomes investigated were mortality/survival, duration of support, and bleeding. Ischemic stroke was lower in patients treated with Impella compared to the VA-ECMO population, with statistically significant difference. Socio-economic outcomes including quality of life or resource use were not reported in any study. The study highlighted areas where further data collection is needed to clarify the value of complex, new technologies in the treatment of CS that will enable comparative assessments focusing both on the health impact on patient outcomes and on the financial burden for government budgets. Future studies need to fill the gap to comply with recent regulatory updates at the European and national levels.

Sex differences in utilisation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support and outcomes in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

The impact of sex-related differences in patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support (ECMO) support is still inconclusive. This population-based study aimed to investigate sex differences in short- or long-term outcomes in order to improve clinical practice.

METHODS

Patients who received ECMO between 2001 to 2017 were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Propensity score matching with a 1:1 ratio was conducted in female-to-male groups, to reduce confounding of baseline covariates. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, all-cause mortality, all-cause readmission, and ECMO-related complications. Logistic regression analysis, Cox proportional hazard model, and join point regression were used to compare sex differences in both short- or long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

In total, 7,010 matched patients from 11,734 ECMO receivers were included for analysis. The use of ECMO increased dramatically in past years, although the proportion of females was still lower than males. There was a decreasing trend of females undergoing ECMO over time. Female patients have lower risks of in-hospital mortality (64.08% in females vs 66.48% in males; P = 0.0352) and ECMO-related complications compared with males. Furthermore, females also had favorable long-term late outcomes such as all-cause mortality (73.35% in females vs 76.98% in males; P = 0.009) and readmission rate (6.99% in females vs 9.19% in males; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Female patients had more favorable in-hospital and long-term survival outcomes. Despite improvement in modern ECMO technique and equipment, ECMO remains underutilized in eligible female patients. Thus, females should undergo ECMO treatment if available and indicated.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The institutional review board of Chang Gung Memorial Hospital approved all data usage and the study protocol (registration number: 202100151B0C502; date of registration: 23/08/2021).

Predictive models in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO): a systematic review

PURPOSE

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been increasingly used in the last years to provide hemodynamic and respiratory support in critically ill patients. In this scenario, prognostic scores remain essential to choose which patients should initiate ECMO. This systematic review aims to assess the current landscape and inform subsequent efforts in the development of risk prediction tools for ECMO.

METHODS

PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, MEDLINE and Scopus were consulted. Articles between Jan 2011 and Feb 2022, including adults undergoing ECMO reporting a newly developed and validated predictive model for mortality, were included. Studies based on animal models, systematic reviews, case reports and conference abstracts were excluded. Data extraction aimed to capture study characteristics, risk model characteristics and model performance. The risk of bias was evaluated through the prediction model risk-of-bias assessment tool (PROBAST). The protocol has been registered in Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/fevw5 ).

RESULTS

Twenty-six prognostic scores for in-hospital mortality were identified, with a study size ranging from 60 to 4557 patients. The most common candidate variables were age, lactate concentration, creatinine concentration, bilirubin concentration and days in mechanical ventilation prior to ECMO. Five out of 16 venous-arterial (VA)-ECMO scores and 3 out of 9 veno-venous (VV)-ECMO scores had been validated externally. Additionally, one score was developed for both VA and VV populations. No score was judged at low risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Most models have not been validated externally and apply after ECMO initiation; thus, some uncertainty whether ECMO should be initiated still remains. It has yet to be determined whether and to what extent a new methodological perspective may enhance the performance of predictive models for ECMO, with the ultimate goal to implement a model that positively influences patient outcomes.

Prognostic models for mortality risk in patients requiring ECMO

PURPOSE

To provide an overview and evaluate the performance of mortality prediction models for patients requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support for refractory cardiocirculatory or respiratory failure.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was undertaken to identify studies developing and/or validating multivariable prediction models for all-cause mortality in adults requiring or receiving veno-arterial (V-A) or veno-venous (V-V) ECMO. Estimates of model performance (observed versus expected (O:E) ratio and c-statistic) were summarized using random effects models and sources of heterogeneity were explored by means of meta-regression. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of BiAS Tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

Among 4905 articles screened, 96 studies described a total of 58 models and 225 external validations. Out of all 58 models which were specifically developed for ECMO patients, 14 (24%) were ever externally validated. Discriminatory ability of frequently validated models developed for ECMO patients (i.e., SAVE and RESP score) was moderate on average (pooled c-statistics between 0.66 and 0.70), and comparable to general intensive care population-based models (pooled c-statistics varying between 0.66 and 0.69 for the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score). Nearly all models tended to underestimate mortality with a pooled O:E > 1. There was a wide variability in reported performance measures of external validations, reflecting a large between-study heterogeneity. Only 1 of the 58 models met the generally accepted Prediction model Risk Of BiAS Tool criteria of good quality. Importantly, all predicted outcomes were conditional on the fact that ECMO support had already been initiated, thereby reducing their applicability for patient selection in clinical practice.

CONCLUSIONS

A large number of mortality prediction models have been developed for ECMO patients, yet only a minority has been externally validated. Furthermore, we observed only moderate predictive performance, large heterogeneity between-study populations and model performance, and poor methodological quality overall. Most importantly, current models are unsuitable to provide decision support for selecting individuals in whom initiation of ECMO would be most beneficial, as all models were developed in ECMO patients only and the decision to start ECMO had, therefore, already been made.

Risk stratification and cost-effectiveness analysis of adult patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

A more effective allocation of critical care resources is important as the cost of intensive care increases. A model has been developed to predict the probability of in-hospital death among patients who received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) were performed regarding the relationship between hospitalization expenses and predicted survival outcomes.

METHODS

Adult patients who received ECMO in a medical center in Taiwan (2005-2016) were included. A logistic regression model was applied to a spectrum of clinical measures obtained before and during ECMO institutions to identify the risk variables for in-hospital mortality. CEA were reported as a predictive risk in quintiles and defined as the cost of each quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The distribution of the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) was measured by the ellipse and acceptability curve methods.

RESULTS

A total of 919 patients (659 males, mean age: 53.7 years) were enrolled. Ten variables emerged as significant predictors of in-hospital death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.79). In-hospital and total follow-up times were 40,366 and 660,205 person-days, respectively. The total in-hospital expense was $31,818,701 USD and the total effectiveness was 1687.3 QALY. For the lowest to the highest risk quintile, the mean mortality risks were 0.30, 0.48, 0.61, 0.75, and 0.88, and mean adjusted CER were $24,230, $43,042, $54,929, $84,973, and $149,095 per QALY, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficient allocation of limited and costly resources is most important when one is forced to decide between groups of critically ill patients. The current analyses of ECMO outcomes should assist in identifying candidates with the greatest prospect for survival while avoiding futile treatments.

Lactate levels as a prognostic predict in cardiogenic shock under venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Lactate and its evolution are associated with the prognosis of patients in shock, although there is little evidence in those assisted with an extracorporeal venoarterial oxygenation membrane (VA-ECMO). Our objective was to evaluate its prognostic value in cardiogenic shock assisted with VA-ECMO.

METHODS

Study of patients with cardiogenic shock treated with VA-ECMO for medical indication between July 2013 and April 2021. Lactate clearance was calculated: [(initial lactate - 6 h lactate) / initial lactate × exact time between both determinations].

RESULTS

From 121 patients, 44 had acute myocardial infarction (36.4%), 42 implant during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (34.7%), 14 pulmonary embolism (11.6%), 14 arrhythmic storm (11.6%), and 6 fulminant myocarditis (5.0%). After 30 days, 60 patients (49.6%) died, mortality was higher for implant during cardiopulmonary resuscitation than for implant in spontaneous circulation (30 of 42 [71.4%] vs 30 of 79 [38.0%], P=.030). Preimplantation GPT and lactate (both baseline, at 6hours, and clearance) were independently associated with 30-day mortality. The regression models that included lactate clearance had a better predictive capacity for survival than the ENCOURAGE and ECMO-ACCEPTS scores, with the area under the ROC curve being greater in the model with lactate at 6 h.

CONCLUSIONS

Lactate (at baseline, 6h, and clearance) is an independent predictor of prognosis in patients in cardiogenic shock supported by VA-ECMO, allowing better risk stratification and predictive capacity.

Resuscitation Using ECPR During In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (RESCUE-IHCA) Mortality Prediction Score and External Validation

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a score to accurately predict the probability of death for adult extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR).

BACKGROUND

ECPR is being increasingly used to treat refractory in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA), but survival varies from 20% to 40%.

METHODS

Adult patients with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for IHCA (ECPR) were identified from the American Heart Association GWTG-R (Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation) registry. A multivariate survival prediction model and score were developed to predict hospital death. Findings were externally validated in a separate cohort of patients from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry who underwent ECPR for IHCA.

RESULTS

A total of 1,075 patients treated with ECPR were included. Twenty-eight percent survived to discharge in both the derivation and validation cohorts. A total of 6 variables were associated with in-hospital death: age, time of day, initial rhythm, history of renal insufficiency, patient type (cardiac vs noncardiac and medical vs surgical), and duration of the cardiac arrest event, which were combined into the RESCUE-IHCA (Resuscitation Using ECPR During IHCA) score. The model had good discrimination (area under the curve: 0.719; 95% CI: 0.680-0.757) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit P = 0.079). Discrimination was fair in the external validation cohort (area under the curve: 0.676; 95% CI: 0.606-0.746) with good calibration (P = 0.66), demonstrating the model's ability to predict in-hospital death across a wide range of probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The RESCUE-IHCA score can be used by clinicians in real time to predict in-hospital death among patients with IHCA who are treated with ECPR.

Mortality Trends after Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support: A Korean Nationwide Cohort

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of 7-, 30-, 60-, and 365-day overall and cause-specific mortality following extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support.

METHODS

The National Health Insurance claims database in South Korea was the data source for this population-based cohort study. We enrolled all adult patients aged ≥18 years receiving intensive care unit ECMO support from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2018. The study population was divided into three groups based on the main diagnoses during ECMO support: 1) cardiovascular, 2) respiratory, and 3) other diagnoses group (all other main diagnoses rather than cardiovascular or respiratory diseases).

RESULTS

A total of 18,697 patients were included in the final analysis (64.5%, 10.9%, and 24.6% in the cardiovascular, respiratory, and other groups, respectively). The corresponding 7-, 30-, 60-, and 365-day mortality rates in these groups were 33.1%, 56.1%, 62.4%, and 67.7%. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that the median survival time was shortest in the cardiovascular group (12.0 days, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.3-12.7), with 31.0 (95% CI: 28.5-33.6) and 49.0 (95% CI: 44.4-57.6) day survival in the respiratory and other diagnoses groups (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one-third of patients died within 7 days, half of the patients died within 30 days, and two-thirds died within 365 days of ECMO support. Overall survival time was shortest in the cardiovascular group, followed by that of the respiratory group.

Gender and the Outcome of Postcardiotomy Veno-arterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

OBJECTIVE

There is a paucity of sex-specific data on patients' postcardiotomy venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). The present study sought to assess this issue in a multicenter study.

DESIGN

Retrospective, propensity score-matched analysis of an international registry.

SETTING

Multicenter study, tertiary university hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Data on adult patients undergoing postcardiotomy VA-ECMO.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Between January 2010 and March 2018, patients treated with postcardiotomy VA-ECMO at 17 cardiac surgery centers were analyzed. Index procedures considered were coronary artery bypass graft surgery, isolated valve surgery, their combination, and proximal aortic root surgery. Hospital and five-year mortality constituted the endpoints of interest. Propensity score matching was adopted with logistic regression. A total of 358 patients (mean age: 63.3 ± 12.3 years; 29.6% female) were identified. Among 94 propensity score-matched pairs, women had a higher hospital mortality (70.5% v 56.4%, p = 0.049) compared with men. Logistic regression analysis showed that women (odds ratio [OR], 1.87; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-3.16), age (OR, 1.06; 95%CI 1.04-1.08) and pre-ECMO arterial lactate (OR, 1.09; 95%CI 1.04-1.16) were independent predictors of hospital mortality. No differences between female and male patients were observed for other outcomes. Among propensity score-matched pairs, one-, three-, and five-year mortality were 60.6%, 65.0%, and 65.0% among men, and 71.3%, 71.3%, and 74.0% among women, respectively (p = 0.110, adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27; 95%CI 0.96-1.66).

CONCLUSIONS

In postcardiotomy VA-ECMO, female patients demonstrated higher hospital mortality than men. Morbidity and late mortality were similar between the two groups.

Outcome of Repeat Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in Postcardiotomy Cardiogenic Shock

OBJECTIVE

Data on patients requiring a second run of venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) support in patients affected by postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock (PCS) are very limited. The authors aimed to investigate the effect of a second run of VA-ECMO on PCS patient survival.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of an international registry.

SETTING

Multicenter study, tertiary university hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Data on adult PCS patients receiving a second run of VA-ECMO.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 674 patients with a mean age of 62.9 ± 12.7 years were analyzed, and 21 (3.1%) patients had a second run of VA-ECMO. None of them required more than two VA-ECMO runs. The median duration of VA-ECMO therapy was 135 hours (interquartile range [IQR] 61-226) in patients who did not require a VA-ECMO rerun. In the rerun VA-ECMO group the median overall duration of VA-ECMO therapy was 183 hours (IQR 107-344), and the median duration of the first run was 114 hours (IQR 66-169). Nine (42.9%) of the patients who required a second run of VA-ECMO died during VA-ECMO therapy, whereas five (23.8%) survived to hospital discharge. No differences between patients treated with single or second VA-ECMO runs were observed in terms of hospital mortality and late survival. In patients requiring a second VA-ECMO run, the actuarial survival estimates at three and 12 months after VA-ECMO weaning were 23.8% ± 9.3% and 19.6% ± 6.4%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Repeat VA-ECMO therapy is a valid treatment strategy for PCS patients. Early and late survivals are similar between patients who have undergone a single or second run of VA-ECMO.

Trends in Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Application and Outcomes in Korea

The use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasing despite the limited evidence in survival benefit. This study aimed to analyze the changes of in-hospital mortality, medical costs, and other outcomes in ECMO therapy. We used 2004-2017 data from a nationwide healthcare administrative claims database in Korea. Overall, 14,775 ECMO procedures were performed in 14,689 patients at 112 hospitals. We found a 170-fold and a 334-fold increase in the number of ECMO procedures and related costs, respectively. For indications, the performance of ECMO for heart or lung transplantation and respiratory failure increased, whereas that for cardiovascular surgery decreased. The duration of ECMO increased from a median of 3 days (IQR, 2-5 days) in 2004 to 4 days (IQR, 2-9 days) in 2017. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 68.6%, and this improved over time, especially for lung transplantation and respiratory failure patients. Bleeding-related complications and the transfusion amount also decreased. Hospitals with higher case volume showed better survival outcomes. The median cost per procedure and per day was 26,538 USD (IQR, 14,646-47,862 USD) and 1,560 USD (IQR, 903-2,929 USD), respectively, and increased with time. A trend toward greater resource use and better outcomes requires additional cost-effective analysis based on indications.

Five-year survival after post-cardiotomy veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

AIMS 

Veno-arterial (VA) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support for post-cardiotomy cardiogenic shock (PCS) after adult cardiac surgery is associated with satisfactory hospital survival. However, data on long-term survival of these critically ill patients are scarce.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between January 2010 and March 2018, 665 consecutive patients received VA-ECMO for PCS at 17 cardiac surgery centres and herein we evaluated their 5-year survival. The mean follow-up of this cohort was 1.7 ± 2.7 years (for hospital survivors, 4.6 ± 2.5 years). In this cohort, 240 (36.1%) patients survived to hospital discharge. Five-year survival of all patients was 27.7%. The PC-ECMO score was predictive of 5-year survival in these patients (0 point, 50.9%; 1 point, 44.9%; 2 points, 40.0%; 3 points, 34.7%; 4 points, 21.0%; 5 points, 17.6%; ≥6 points, 10.7%; P < 0.0001). Age was among factors independently associated with late survival, patients >70 years old having a remarkably poor 5-year survival (<60 years: 39.2%; 60-69 years: 29.9%; 70-79 years: 12.3%; ≥80 years: 13.0%, P < 0.0001). Implantation of a ventricular assist device or heart transplant was performed in 3.2% of patients and their 5-year survival was 42.9% (for heart transplant, 63.6%).

CONCLUSION 

Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for PCS is associated with satisfactory 5-year survival in young patients without critical pre-ECMO conditions. The use of VA-ECMO for PCS in patients >70 years should be considered only after a judicious scrutiny of patient's life expectancy. Future studies should evaluate whether satisfactory mid-term survival of these patients translates into a good functional outcome.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov-NCT03508505.

Duration of Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation and Mortality in Postcardiotomy Cardiogenic Shock

OBJECTIVE

The optimal duration of venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) in patients affected by postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock (PCS) remains controversial. The present study was conducted to investigate the effect of VA-ECMO duration on hospital outcomes.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of an international registry.

SETTING

Multicenter study including 19 tertiary university hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Between January 2010 and March 2018, data on PCS patients receiving VA-ECMO were retrieved from the multicenter PC-ECMO registry.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were stratified according to the following different durations of VA-ECMO therapy: ≤three days, four-to-seven days, eight-to-ten days, and >ten days.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 725 patients, with a mean age of 62.9 ± 12.9 years, were included. The mean duration of VA-ECMO was 7.1 ± 6.3 days (range 0-39 d), and 39.4% of patients were supported for ≤three days, 29.1% for four-seven days, 15.3% for eight-ten days, and finally 20.7% for >ten days. A total of 391 (53.9%) patients were weaned from VA-ECMO successfully; however, 134 (34.3%) of those patients died before discharge. Multivariate logistic regression showed that prolonged duration of VA-ECMO therapy (four-seven days: adjusted rate 53.6%, odds ratio [OR] 0.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.18-0.44; eight-ten days: adjusted rate 61.3%, OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.29-0.87; and >ten days: adjusted rate 59.3%, OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.31-0.81) was associated with lower risk of mortality compared with VA-ECMO lasting ≤three days (adjusted rate 78.3%). Patients requiring VA-ECMO therapy for eight-ten days (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.15-3.33) and >10 days (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.14-3.02) had significantly greater mortality compared with those on VA-ECMO for 4 to 7 days.

CONCLUSIONS

PCS patients weaned from VA-ECMO after four-seven days of support had significantly less mortality compared with those with shorter or longer mechanical support.

Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation After Surgical Repair of Type A Aortic Dissection

Venoarterial (VA) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support for postcardiotomy cardiogenic shock (PCS) in patients undergoing surgery for acute type A aortic dissection (TAAD) is controversial and the available evidence is confined to limited case series. We aimed to evaluate the impact of this salvage therapy in this patient population. Between January 2010 and March 2018, all TAAD patients receiving VA-ECMO for PCS were retrieved from the PC-ECMO registry. Hospital mortality and other secondary outcomes were compared with PCS patients undergoing surgery for other cardiac pathologies and treated with VA-ECMO. Among the 781 patients in the PC-ECMO registry, 62 (7.9%) underwent TAAD repair and required VA-ECMO support for PCS. In-hospital mortality accounted for 46 (74.2%) patients, while 23 (37.1%) were successfully weaned from VA-ECMO. No significant differences were observed between the TAAD and non-TAAD cohorts with reference to in-hospital mortality (74.2% vs 63.4%, p = 0.089). However, patients in the TAAD group had a higher rate of neurological events (33.9% vs 17.6%, p = 0.002), but similar rates of reoperation for bleeding/tamponade (48.4% vs 41.5%, p = 0.29), transfusion of ≥10 red blood cell units (77.4% vs 69.5%, p = 0.19), new-onset dialysis (56.7% vs 53.1%, p = 0.56), and other secondary outcomes. VA-ECMO provides a valid support for patients affected by PCS after surgery for TAAD.

Contrast-enhanced echocardiographic detection of severe aortic insufficiency in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Venoarterial (VA) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support is an increasingly used temporizing therapy for patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. Contrast-enhanced echocardiography plays a critical role in the diagnosis and management of diseases that precipitate severe cardiac failure. In this case report, we describe a previously healthy 60-year-old woman who presented with dyspnea on exertion, and whose hospital course was complicated by ventricular fibrillation, emergent coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG), and ECMO support. Her contrast-enhanced ECMO images demonstrated a unique pattern of opacification of three of the four cardiac chambers, which led to a diagnosis of severe aortic insufficiency.