An epidemic surge of influenza A(H3N2) virus at the end of the 2016-2017 season in Taiwan with an increased viral genetic heterogeneity

Safety and immunogenicity of influenza A(H3N2) component vaccine in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal influenza A (H3N2) virus is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the last 50 years in population that is greater than the impact of H1N1. Data assessing immunogenicity and safety of this virus component in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) is lacking in the literature.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate short-term immunogenicity and safety of influenza A/Singapore (H3N2) vaccine in JSLE.

METHODS

24 consecutive JSLE patients and 29 healthy controls (HC) were vaccinated with influenza A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016(H3N2)-like virus. Influenza A (H3N2) seroprotection (SP), seroconversion (SC), geometric mean titers (GMT), factor increase in GMT (FI-GMT) titers were assessed before and 4 weeks post-vaccination. Disease activity, therapies and adverse events (AE) were also evaluated.

RESULTS

JSLE patients and controls were comparable in current age [14.5 (10.1-18.3) vs. 14 (9-18.4) years, p = 0.448] and female sex [21 (87.5%) vs. 19 (65.5%), p = 0.108]. Before vaccination, JSLE and HC had comparable SP rates [22 (91.7%) vs. 25 (86.2%), p = 0.678] and GMT titers [102.3 (95% CI 75.0-139.4) vs. 109.6 (95% CI 68.2-176.2), p = 0.231]. At D30, JSLE and HC had similar immune response, since no differences were observed in SP [24 (100%) vs. 28 (96.6%), p = 1.000)], SC [4 (16.7%) vs. 9 (31.0%), p = 0.338), GMT [162.3 (132.9-198.3) vs. 208.1 (150.5-287.8), p = 0.143] and factor increase in GMT [1.6 (1.2-2.1) vs. 1.9 (1.4-2.5), p = 0.574]. SLEDAI-2K scores [2 (0-17) vs. 2 (0-17), p = 0.765] and therapies remained stable throughout the study. Further analysis of possible factors influencing vaccine immune response among JSLE patients demonstrated similar GMT between patients with SLEDAI < 4 compared to SLEDAI ≥ 4 (p = 0.713), as well as between patients with and without current use of prednisone (p = 0.420), azathioprine (p = 1.0), mycophenolate mofetil (p = 0.185), and methotrexate (p = 0.095). No serious AE were reported in both groups and most of them were asymptomatic (58.3% vs. 44.8%, p = 0.958). Local and systemic AE were alike in both groups (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

This is the first study that identified adequate immune protection against H3N2-influenza strain with additional vaccine-induced increment of immune response and an adequate safety profile in JSLE. ( www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov , NCT03540823).

A(H3N2) antigenic variation of influenza is associated with low vaccine efficacy in the early 2018 influenza season in Mexico City

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the VE and the mutations of the viruses present in the Mexican population at the beginning of 2018.

METHODS

We diagnosed influenza in outpatients with a high-performance Rapid Influenza Diagnostic Test (RIDT) qRT-PCR. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the study population, while the chi-square test was used to determine clinical variables. VE was analyzed through a negative test design. We sequenced the hemagglutinin (HA) gene, performed a phylogenetic analysis, and analyzed the nonsynonymous substitutions both in and outside antigenic sites.

RESULTS

Of the 240 patients analyzed, 42.5% received the trivalent vaccine, and 37.5% were positive for influenza. The VE for the general population for any influenza virus type or subtype was 37.0%, while the VE for the predominant influenza A(H3N2) subtype was the lowest (19.7%). The phylogenetic analysis of HA showed the co-circulation of clades and subclades 3C.2a1, 3C.2a1b, 3C.2a2, 3C.2a2re, 3C.2a3, and 3C.3a with identities approximately 97-98% similar to the vaccine composition.

CONCLUSION

Low VE was related to the co-circulation of multiple clades and subclades of influenza A(H3N2), with sufficient genetic and phenotypic distance to allow for the infection of vaccinated individuals.

Increased genetic variation of A(H3N2) virus from influenza surveillance at the end of the 2016/2017 season for Shanghai port, China

Influenza A(H3N2) virus exhibited complex seasonal patterns to evade pre-existing antibodies, resulting in changes in the antigenicity of the viron surface protein hemagglutinin (HA). To monitor the currently imported influenza viruses as well as to assess the capacity of health emergencies at the Shanghai port, we collected respiratory specimens of passengers from different countries and regions including some of Europe with influenza-like illness at the Shanghai port during 2016/2017, examined amino acid substitutions, and calculated the perfect-match vaccine efficacy using the p epitope model. Phylogenetic analysis of the HA genes revealed that influenza A(H3N2) viruses belonging to eight subclades were detected, and three amino acid substitutions in the subclade 3C.2a.4 were also added. Besides, two epidemic influenza virus strains were found in the 2016/2017 winter and 2016 summer. The results of lower predicted vaccine effectiveness in summer suggest that the imported A(H3N2) strains were not a good match for the A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 vaccine strain since the summer of 2017. Therefore, the Shanghai Port might stop the risk of the international spread of influenza for the first time, and curb the entry of A(H3N2) from overseas at the earliest stage of a probable influenza pandemic.

Characterizing the Countrywide Epidemic Spread of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in Kenya between 2009 and 2018

The spatiotemporal patterns of spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses on a countrywide scale are unclear in many tropical/subtropical regions mainly because spatiotemporally representative sequence data are lacking. We isolated, sequenced, and analyzed 383 A(H1N1)pdm09 viral genomes from hospitalized patients between 2009 and 2018 from seven locations across Kenya. Using these genomes and contemporaneously sampled global sequences, we characterized the spread of the virus in Kenya over several seasons using phylodynamic methods. The transmission dynamics of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in Kenya were characterized by (i) multiple virus introductions into Kenya over the study period, although only a few of those introductions instigated local seasonal epidemics that then established local transmission clusters, (ii) persistence of transmission clusters over several epidemic seasons across the country, (iii) seasonal fluctuations in effective reproduction number (Re) associated with lower number of infections and seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity after an initial rapid increase during the early pandemic phase, which broadly corresponded to epidemic peaks in the northern and southern hemispheres, (iv) high virus genetic diversity with greater frequency of seasonal fluctuations in 2009-2011 and 2018 and low virus genetic diversity with relatively weaker seasonal fluctuations in 2012-2017, and (v) virus spread across Kenya. Considerable influenza virus diversity circulated within Kenya, including persistent viral lineages that were unique to the country, which may have been capable of dissemination to other continents through a globally migrating virus population. Further knowledge of the viral lineages that circulate within understudied low-to-middle-income tropical and subtropical regions is required to understand the full diversity and global ecology of influenza viruses in humans and to inform vaccination strategies within these regions.

Influenza A/Singapore (H3N2) component vaccine in systemic lupus erythematosus: A distinct pattern of immunogenicity

INTRODUCTION

Influenza A (H3N2) virus is the most important cause of seasonal influenza morbidity and mortality in the last 50 years, surpassing the impact of H1N1. Data assessing immunogenicity and safety of this virus component are lacking in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and restricted to small reports with other H3N2 strains.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate short-term immunogenicity and safety of influenza A/Singapore (H3N2) vaccine in SLE.

METHODS

81 consecutive SLE patients and 81 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (HC) were vaccinated with the influenza A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016(H3N2)-like virus. Seroprotection (SP) and seroconversion (SC) rates, geometric mean titers(GMT), and factor increase in GMT(FI-GMT) and adverse events were assessed before and 4 weeks post-vaccination. Disease activity and therapies were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Before immunization, SLE and HC groups had high SP rates (89% vs 77%, p = 0.061) and elevated GMT titer with higher levels in SLE (129.1(104.1-154.1) vs 54.8(45.0-64.6), p < 0.001). Frequency of two previous years' influenza vaccination was high and comparable in SLE and HC (89% vs 90%, p = 1.000). Four weeks post-vaccination, median GMT increased for both groups and remained higher in SLE compared to HC (239.9(189.5-290.4) vs 94.5(72.6-116.4), p < 0.0001) with a comparable FI-GMT (2.3(1.8-2.9) vs 1.9(1.5-2.3), p = 0.051). SC rates were low and comparable for both groups (16% vs 11%, respectively, p = 0.974). Disease activity scores remained stable throughout the study (p = 1.000) and severe adverse events were not identified.

CONCLUSION

Influenza A/Singapore (H3N2) vaccine has an adequate safety profile. The distinct immunogenicity pattern from other influenza A components characterized by a remarkably high pre- and post-vaccination SP rate and high GMT levels may be associated with previous influenza A vaccination. (www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03540823).

A cross-neutralizing antibody between HIV-1 and influenza virus

Incessant antigenic evolution enables the persistence and spread of influenza virus in the human population. As the principal target of the immune response, the hemagglutinin (HA) surface antigen on influenza viruses continuously acquires and replaces N-linked glycosylation sites to shield immunogenic protein epitopes using host-derived glycans. Anti-glycan antibodies, such as 2G12, target the HIV-1 envelope protein (Env), which is even more extensively glycosylated and contains under-processed oligomannose-type clusters on its dense glycan shield. Here, we illustrate that 2G12 can also neutralize human seasonal influenza A H3N2 viruses that have evolved to present similar oligomannose-type clusters on their HAs from around 20 years after the 1968 pandemic. Using structural biology and mass spectrometric approaches, we find that two N-glycosylation sites close to the receptor binding site (RBS) on influenza hemagglutinin represent the oligomannose cluster recognized by 2G12. One of these glycan sites is highly conserved in all human H3N2 strains and the other emerged during virus evolution. These two N-glycosylation sites have also become crucial for fitness of recent H3N2 strains. These findings shed light on the evolution of the glycan shield on influenza virus and suggest 2G12-like antibodies can potentially act as broad neutralizers to target human enveloped viruses.

Dangerous Pathogens as a Potential Problem for Public Health

Pathogens are various organisms, such as viruses, bacteria, fungi, and protozoa, which can cause severe illnesses to their hosts. Throughout history, pathogens have accompanied human populations and caused various epidemics. One of the most significant outbreaks was the Black Death, which occurred in the 14th century and caused the death of one-third of Europe's population. Pathogens have also been studied for their use as biological warfare agents by the former Soviet Union, Japan, and the USA. Among bacteria and viruses, there are high priority agents that have a significant impact on public health. Bacillus anthracis, Francisella tularensis, Yersinia pestis, Variola virus, Filoviruses (Ebola, Marburg), Arenoviruses (Lassa), and influenza viruses are included in this group of agents. Outbreaks and infections caused by them might result in social disruption and panic, which is why special operations are needed for public health preparedness. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria that significantly impede treatment and recovery of patients are also valid threats. Furthermore, recent events related to the massive spread of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are an example of how virus-induced diseases cannot be ignored. The impact of outbreaks, such as SARS-CoV-2, have had far-reaching consequences beyond public health. The economic losses due to lockdowns are difficult to estimate, but it would take years to restore countries to pre-outbreak status. For countries affected by the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), their health systems have been overwhelmed, resulting in an increase in the mortality rate caused by diseases or injuries. Furthermore, outbreaks, such as SARS-CoV-2, will induce serious, wide-ranging (and possibly long-lasting) psychological problems among, not only health workers, but ordinary citizens (this is due to isolation, quarantine, etc.). The aim of this paper is to present the most dangerous pathogens, as well as general characterizations, mechanisms of action, and treatments.

Applying Machine Learning Models with An Ensemble Approach for Accurate Real-Time Influenza Forecasting in Taiwan: Development and Validation Study

Background

Changeful seasonal influenza activity in subtropical areas such as Taiwan causes problems in epidemic preparedness. The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control has maintained real-time national influenza surveillance systems since 2004. Except for timely monitoring, epidemic forecasting using the national influenza surveillance data can provide pivotal information for public health response.

Objective

We aimed to develop predictive models using machine learning to provide real-time influenza-like illness forecasts.

Methods

Using surveillance data of influenza-like illness visits from emergency departments (from the Real-Time Outbreak and Disease Surveillance System), outpatient departments (from the National Health Insurance database), and the records of patients with severe influenza with complications (from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System), we developed 4 machine learning models (autoregressive integrated moving average, random forest, support vector regression, and extreme gradient boosting) to produce weekly influenza-like illness predictions for a given week and 3 subsequent weeks. We established a framework of the machine learning models and used an ensemble approach called stacking to integrate these predictions. We trained the models using historical data from 2008-2014. We evaluated their predictive ability during 2015-2017 for each of the 4-week time periods using Pearson correlation, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and hit rate of trend prediction. A dashboard website was built to visualize the forecasts, and the results of real-world implementation of this forecasting framework in 2018 were evaluated using the same metrics.

Results

All models could accurately predict the timing and magnitudes of the seasonal peaks in the then-current week (nowcast) (ρ=0.802-0.965; MAPE: 5.2%-9.2%; hit rate: 0.577-0.756), 1-week (ρ=0.803-0.918; MAPE: 8.3%-11.8%; hit rate: 0.643-0.747), 2-week (ρ=0.783-0.867; MAPE: 10.1%-15.3%; hit rate: 0.669-0.734), and 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.676-0.801; MAPE: 12.0%-18.9%; hit rate: 0.643-0.786), especially the ensemble model. In real-world implementation in 2018, the forecasting performance was still accurate in nowcasts (ρ=0.875-0.969; MAPE: 5.3%-8.0%; hit rate: 0.582-0.782) and remained satisfactory in 3-week forecasts (ρ=0.721-0.908; MAPE: 7.6%-13.5%; hit rate: 0.596-0.904).

Conclusions

This machine learning and ensemble approach can make accurate, real-time influenza-like illness forecasts for a 4-week period, and thus, facilitate decision making.

Short Term Home Oxygen Therapy for COVID-19 patients: The COVID-HOT algorithm

Innovative solutions are required to effectively address the unprecedented surge of demand on our healthcare systems created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Home treatment and monitoring of patients who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can be readily implemented to ameliorate the health system burden while maintaining safety and effectiveness of care. Such endeavor requires careful triage and coordination, telemedicine and technology support, workforce and education, as well as robust infrastructure. In the understandable paucity of evidence-based, protocolized approaches toward HOT for COVID-19 patients, our group has created the current document based on the cumulative experience of members of the Joint ACAIM-WACEM COVID-19 Clinical Management Taskforce. Utilizing available evidence-based resources and extensive front-line experience, the authors have suggested a pragmatic pathway for providing safe and effective home oxygen therapy in the community setting.

Seasonal dynamics of influenza viruses and age distribution of infected individuals across nine seasons covering 2009-2018 in Taiwan

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

A swine-origin influenza A/H1N1 virus (termed A/H1N1pdm) caused a pandemic in 2009 and has continuously circulated in the human population. To investigate its possible ecological effects on circulating influenza strains, the seasonal patterns of influenza viruses and the respective age distribution of infected patients were studies.

METHODS

The data obtained from national influenza surveillance systems in Taiwan from July 2009 to June 2018 were analyzed.

RESULTS

The A/H1N1pdm and A/H3N2 strains usually caused a higher ratio of severe to mild cases than influenza B. New variants of A/H1N1pdm and A/H3N2 emerged accompanied by a large epidemic peak. However, the new influenza B variants intended to circulate for several seasons before causing a large epidemic. The major group of outpatients affected by A/H1N1pdm were aged 13-23 years in the pandemic wave, and the age range of infected individuals gradually shifted to 24-49 and 0-6 years across seasons; A/H1N1pdm-infected inpatients were aged 24-49 years in 2009-2011, and the age range gradually switched to older groups aged 50-65 and >65 years. Individuals aged 0-6 or 24-49 years accounted for the majority of A/H3N2-infected outpatients across seasons, whereas most of the inpatients affected by A/H3N2 were aged >65 years.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the effects of new variants and changes in dominant circulating viral strains on the age distribution of the affected human population, disease severity and epidemic levels is useful for the establishment of fine-tuned strategies for further improvement of influenza control.

Severe cases of seasonal influenza in Russia in 2017-2018

The 2017-2018 influenza epidemic season in Russia was characterized by a relatively low morbidity and mortality. We evaluated herd immunity prior to the 2017-2018 influenza season in hemagglutination inhibition assay, and performed characterization of influenza viruses isolated from severe or fatal influenza cases and from influenza cases in people vaccinated in the fall of 2017. During the 2017-2018 epidemic season, 87 influenza A and B viruses were isolated and viruses of the 75 influenza cases, including selected viral isolates and viruses analyzed directly from the original clinical material, were genetically characterized. The analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B.1, B/Yamagata-like viruses belonged to clade 3, and B/Victoria-like viruses belonged to clade 1A and they were antigenically similar to the corresponding vaccine strains. A(H3N2) viruses belonged to clade 3C.2a and were difficult to characterize antigenically and the analysis indicated antigenic differences from the corresponding egg-grown vaccine strain. The next generation sequencing revealed the presence of D222/G/N polymorphism in the hemagglutinin gene in 32% of the analyzed A(H1N1)pdm09 lethal cases. This study demonstrated the importance of monitoring D222G/N polymorphism, including detection of minor viral variants with the mutations, in the hemagglutinin gene of A(H1N1)pdm09 for epidemiological surveillance. One strain of influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 was resistant to oseltamivir and had the H275Y amino acid substitution in the NA protein. All other isolates were susceptible to NA inhibitors. Prior to the 2017-2018 epidemic season, 67.4 million people were vaccinated, which accounted for 46.6% of the country's population. Just before the epidemic season 33-47% and 24-30% of blood sera samples collected within the territory of Russia showed the presence of protective antibody titers against vaccine strains of influenza A and influenza B/Victoria-like, respectively. Mass vaccination of the population had evidently reduced the severity of the flu epidemic during the 2017-2018 influenza epidemic season in Russia.

Centennial review of influenza in Taiwan

The history of influenza in Taiwan can be traced up to the 1918 H1N1 Spanish flu pandemic, followed by several others including the 1957 H2N2, 1968 H3N2, and the 2009 new H1N1. A couple of avian influenza viruses of H5N1 and H7N9 also posed threats to the general public in Taiwan in the two recent decades. Nevertheless, two seasonal influenza A viruses and two lineages of influenza B viruses continue causing annual endemics one after the other, or appearing simultaneously. Their interplay provided interesting evolutionary trajectories for these viruses, allowing us to computationally model their global migrations together with the data collected elsewhere from different geographical locations. An island-wide laboratory-based surveillance network was also established since 2000 for systematically collecting and managing the disease and molecular epidemiology. Experiences learned from this network helped in encountering and managing newly emerging infectious diseases, including the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 outbreaks.

Humoral immunity to influenza in an at-risk population and severe influenza cases in Russia in 2016-2017

This work aimed to analyze the herd immunity to influenza among a Russian population living in regions with an increased risk of emergence of viruses with pandemic potential, and to isolate and investigate virus strains from severe influenza cases, including fatal cases, during the 2016-2017 epidemic season. In November 2016 - March 2017 highly pathogenic influenza outbreaks were registered in Russia among wild birds and poultry. No cases of human infection were registered. Analysis of 760 sera from people who had contact with infected or perished birds revealed the presence of antibodies to A(H5N1) virus of clade 2.3.2.1c and A(H5N8) virus of clade 2.3.4.4. The 2016-2017 influenza epidemic season in Russia began in weeks 46-47 of 2016 with predominant circulation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses. Strains isolated from severe influenza cases mainly belonged to 3C.2a.2 and 3C.2a.3 genetic groups. Up to the 8th week of 2017 severe influenza cases were often caused by influenza B viruses which belonged to 1A genetic group with antigenic properties similar to B/Brisbane/60/2008. All influenza A and B virus strains isolated in the 2016-2017 epidemic season were sensitive to oseltamivir and zanamivir.