The ongoing development of a pragmatic and adaptive fire management policy in a large African savanna protected area

A novel, post-Soviet fire disturbance regime drives bird diversity and abundance on the Eurasian steppe

Many grassland ecosystems and their associated biodiversity depend on the interactions between fire and land-use, both of which are shaped by socioeconomic conditions. The Eurasian steppe biome, much of it situated in Kazakhstan, contains 10% of the world's remaining grasslands. The break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, widespread land abandonment and massive declines in wild and domestic ungulates led to biomass accumulation over millions of hectares. This rapid fuel increase made the steppes a global fire hotspot, with major changes in vegetation structure. Yet, the response of steppe biodiversity to these changes remains unexplored. We utilized a unique bird abundance dataset covering the entire Kazakh steppe and semi-desert regions together with the MODIS burned area product. We modeled the response of bird species richness and abundance as a function of fire disturbance variables-fire extent, cumulative burned area, fire frequency-at varying grazing intensity. Bird species richness was impacted negatively by large fire extent, cumulative burned area, and high fire frequency in moderately grazed and ungrazed steppe. Similarly, overall bird abundance was impacted negatively by large fire extent, cumulative burned area and higher fire frequency in the moderately grazed steppe, ungrazed steppe, and ungrazed semi-deserts. At the species level, the effect of high fire disturbance was negative for more species than positive. There were considerable fire legacy effects, detectable for at least 8 years. We conclude that the increase in fire disturbance across the post-Soviet Eurasian steppe has led to strong declines in bird abundance and pronounced changes in community assembly. To gain back control over wildfires and prevent further biodiversity loss, restoration of wild herbivore populations and traditional domestic ungulate grazing systems seems much needed.

A review of fire management practices in African savanna-protected areas

The level of understanding of the ecological effects of fires has improved over the past century, but comprehensive information on the practical application of fire remains restricted to a few well-studied areas, and management information is scattered. This article reviews the goals of fire management practices in African savanna-protected areas, and the approaches that have been adopted to achieve them. We identified 15 distinct fire management practices described in 107 papers from 19 African countries. Fire management has evolved in response to changing ecological understanding, as well as the shifting goals of protected areas. Currently, fire management practices can be divided into those that use fire to achieve specific ecological outcomes, those where fire is applied to promote diverse fire patterns across the landscape without necessarily having a specific ecological outcome in mind, and those that use fire to achieve specific, non-ecological or social goals. In larger, heterogeneous protected areas, fire management practices may vary at different sites in order to achieve a range of goals. We compared the effectiveness of each practice in terms of achieving 10 broad goals. These included ecological goals, for example, reversing woody and social goals (e.g. maintaining community relationships).Conservation implications: Fire management remains an important ecosystem process that can be manipulated to achieve particular goals in protected areas. The choice of a particular approach, or approaches, will depend on the circumstances pertaining to a particular protected area, and we provide examples of situations where each practice could be most appropriate.

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation of Earth's biological diversity will be achieved only by recognizing and responding to the critical role of fire. In the Anthropocene, this requires that conservation planning explicitly includes the combined effects of human activities and fire regimes. Improved forecasts for biodiversity must also integrate the connections among people, fire, and ecosystems. Such integration provides an opportunity for new actions that could revolutionize how society sustains biodiversity in a time of changing fire activity.

Probabilistic Mapping and Spatial Pattern Analysis of Grazing Lawns in Southern African Savannahs Using WorldView-3 Imagery and Machine Learning Techniques

Savannah grazing lawns are a key food resource for large herbivores such as blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus), hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) and white rhino (Ceratotherium simum), and impact herbivore densities, movement and recruitment rates. They also exert a strong influence on fire behaviour including frequency, intensity and spread. Thus, variation in grazing lawn cover can have a profound impact on broader savannah ecosystem dynamics. However, knowledge of their present cover and distribution is limited. Importantly, we lack a robust, broad-scale approach for detecting and monitoring grazing lawns, which is critical to enhancing understanding of the ecology of these vital grassland systems. We selected two sites in the Lower Sabie and Satara regions of Kruger National Park, South Africa with mesic and semiarid conditions, respectively. Using spectral and texture features derived from WorldView-3 imagery, we (i) parameterised and assessed the quality of Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) models for general discrimination of plant functional types (PFTs) within a sub-area of the Lower Sabie landscape, and (ii) compared model performance for probabilistic mapping of grazing lawns in the broader Lower Sabie and Satara landscapes. Further, we used spatial metrics to analyse spatial patterns in grazing lawn distribution in both landscapes along a gradient of distance from waterbodies. All machine learning models achieved high F-scores (F1) and overall accuracy (OA) scores in general savannah PFTs classification, with RF (F1 = 95.73±0.004%, OA = 94.16±0.004%), SVM (F1 = 95.64±0.002%, OA = 94.02±0.002%) and MLP (F1 = 95.71±0.003%, OA = 94.27±0.003%) forming a cluster of the better performing models and marginally outperforming CART (F1 = 92.74±0.006%, OA = 90.93±0.003%). Grazing lawn detection accuracy followed a similar trend within the Lower Sabie landscape, with RF, SVM, MLP and CART achieving F-scores of 0.89, 0.93, 0.94 and 0.81, respectively. Transferring models to the Satara landscape however resulted in relatively lower but high grazing lawn detection accuracies across models (RF = 0.87, SVM = 0.88, MLP = 0.85 and CART = 0.75). Results from spatial pattern analysis revealed a relatively higher proportion of grazing lawn cover under semiarid savannah conditions (Satara) compared to the mesic savannah landscape (Lower Sabie). Additionally, the results show strong negative correlation between grazing lawn spatial structure (fractional cover, patch size and connectivity) and distance from waterbodies, with larger and contiguous grazing lawn patches occurring in close proximity to waterbodies in both landscapes. The proposed machine learning approach provides a novel and robust workflow for accurate and consistent landscape-scale monitoring of grazing lawns, while our findings and research outputs provide timely information critical for understanding habitat heterogeneity in southern African savannahs.

Altered ignition catchments threaten a hyperdiverse fire-dependent ecosystem

Human activities affect fire in many ways, often unintentionally or with considerable time-lags before they manifest themselves. Anticipating these changes is critical, so that insidious impacts on ecosystems, their biodiversity and associated goods and services can be avoided, mitigated or managed. Here we explore the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on fire and biodiversity in adjacent ecosystems on the hyperdiverse Cape Peninsula, South Africa. We develop a conceptual framework based on the notion of an ignition catchment, or the spatial extent and temporal range where an ignition is likely to result in a site burning. We apply this concept using fire models to estimate spatial changes in burn probability between historical and current land cover. This change layer was used to predict the observed record of fires and forest encroachment into fire-dependent Fynbos ecosystems in Table Mountain National Park. Urban expansion has created anthropogenic fire shadows that are modifying fire return intervals, facilitating a state shift to low-diversity, non-flammable forest at the expense of hyperdiverse, flammable Fynbos ecosystems. Despite occurring in a conservation area, these ecosystems are undergoing a hidden collapse and desperately require management intervention. Anthropogenic fire shadows can be caused by many human activities and are likely to be a universal phenomenon, not only contributing to the observed global decline in fire activity but also causing extreme fires in ecosystems where there is no shift to a less flammable state and flammable fuels accumulate. The ignition catchment framework is highly flexible and allows detection or prediction of changes in the fire regime, the threat this poses for ecosystems or fire risk and areas where management interventions and/or monitoring are required. Identifying anthropogenic impacts on ignition catchments is key for both understanding global impacts of humans on fire and guiding management of human-altered landscapes for desirable outcomes.

The influence of fire frequency on the structure and botanical composition of savanna ecosystems

Savannas cover 60% of the land surface in Southern Africa, with fires and herbivory playing a key role in their ecology. The Limpopo National Park (LNP) is a 10,000 km2 conservation area in southern Mozambique and key to protecting savannas in the region. Fire is an important factor in LNP's landscapes, but little is known about its role in the park's ecology. In this study, we explored the interaction between fire frequency (FF), landscape type, and vegetation. To assess the FF, we analyzed ten years of the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area product (2003-2013). A stratified random sampling approach was used to assess biodiversity across three dominant landscapes (Nwambia Sandveld-NS, Lebombo North-LN, and Shrubveld Mopane on Calcrete-C) and two FF levels (low-twice or less; and high-3 times or more, during 10 years). Six ha were sampled in each stratum, except for the LN versus high FF in which low accessibility allowed only 3 ha sampling. FF was higher in NS and LN landscapes, where 25% and 34% of the area, respectively, burned more than three times in 10 years. The landscape type was the main determinant of grass composition and biomass. However, in the sandy NS biomass was higher under high FF. The three landscapes supported three different tree/shrub communities, but FF resulted in compositional variations in NS and LN. Fire frequency had no marked influence on woody structural parameters (height, density, and phytomass). We concluded that the savannas in LNP are mainly driven by landscape type (geology), but FF may impose specific modifications. We recommend a fire laissez-faire management system for most of the park and a long-term monitoring system of vegetation to address vegetation changes related to fire. Fire management should be coordinated with the neighboring Kruger National Park, given its long history of fire management. Synthesis: This study revealed that grass and tree/shrub density, biomass, and composition in LNP are determined by the landscape type, but FF determines some important modifications. We conclude that at the current levels FF is not dramatically affecting the savanna ecosystem in the LNP (Figure 1). However, an increase in FF may drive key ecosystem changes in grass biomass and tree/shrub species composition, height, phytomass, and density.

Management thresholds stemming from altered fire dynamics in present-day arid and semi-arid environments

Changes in fire frequency, size, and severity are driving ecological transformations in many systems. In arid and semi-arid regions that are adapted to fire, long-term fire exclusion by managers leads to declines in fire frequency, altered fire size distribution, and increased proportion of high severity fires. In arid and semi-arid systems where fire was historically rare, factors such as invasion by highly combustible non-native plants elevate fire frequency and size, elevating mortality of native species. Altered temperature and precipitation regimes may exacerbate these changes by increasing biomass and flammability. Current transformation in fire dynamics carry social as well as ecological consequences. Human cultures, livelihoods, values, and management behaviors are attuned to fire dynamics. Changes can make it costly or impossible to maintain traditional landscape use and economic activities. We review the ecological and social science literature to examine drivers of altered fire dynamics in arid and semi-arid systems worldwide and the conditions representing fire dynamics thresholds-points at which altered conditions may make it difficult or impossible to achieve management objectives, even via traditional adaptive management focusing on alternative management activities to achieve objectives. Such thresholds could force a wholesale shift in management objectives and practices and a new approach to adaptive management that redefines objectives when no viable adaptive action can be undertaken.

Finding Common Ground between Adaptive Management and Evidence-Based Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation

Adaptive management (AM) and evidence-based conservation (EBC) have emerged as major decision-making frameworks for conservation management. AM deals with complexity and the importance of local context in making conservation decisions under conditions of high variability, uncertainty, and rapid environmental and social change. EBC seeks for generality from empirical data and aims to develop and enhance best practice. The goal of this review is to explore opportunities for finding common ground between AM and EBC. We propose a framework for distinguishing the subset of conservation problems that are amenable to an evidence-based approach, based on levels of uncertainty, complexity, and social agreement. We then suggest ways for combining multiple lines of evidence and developing greater opportunities for iteration and co-learning in EBC.

Managing the human component of fire regimes: lessons from Africa

Human impacts on fire regimes accumulated slowly with the evolution of modern humans able to ignite fires and manipulate landscapes. Today, myriad voices aim to influence fire in grassy ecosystems to different ends, and this is complicated by a colonial past focused on suppressing fire and preventing human ignitions. Here, I review available evidence on the impacts of people on various fire characteristics such as the number and size of fires, fire intensity, fire frequency and seasonality of fire in African grassy ecosystems, with the intention of focusing the debate and identifying areas of uncertainty. Humans alter seasonal patterns of fire in grassy systems but tend to decrease total fire emissions: livestock have replaced fire as the dominant consumer in many parts of Africa, and fragmented landscapes reduce area burned. Humans alter the season and time of day when fires occur, with important implications for fire intensity, tree-grass dynamics and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Late season fires are more common when fire is banned or illegal: these later fires are far more intense but emit fewer GHGs. The types of fires which preserve human livelihoods and biodiversity are not always aligned with the goal of reducing GHG concentrations. Current fire management challenges therefore involve balancing the needs of a large rural population against national and global perspectives on the desirability of different types of fire, but this cannot happen unless the interests of all parties are equally represented. In the future, Africa is expected to urbanize and land use to intensify, which will imply different trajectories for the continent's fire regimes.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind.

Determinants of woody encroachment and cover in African savannas

Savanna ecosystems are an integral part of the African landscape and sustain the livelihoods of millions of people. Woody encroachment in savannas is a widespread phenomenon but its causes are widely debated. We review the extensive literature on woody encroachment to help improve understanding of the possible causes and to highlight where and how future scientific efforts to fully understand these causes should be focused. Rainfall is the most important determinant of maximum woody cover across Africa, but fire and herbivory interact to reduce woody cover below the maximum at many locations. We postulate that woody encroachment is most likely driven by CO2 enrichment and propose a two-system conceptual framework, whereby mechanisms of woody encroachment differ depending on whether the savanna is a wet or dry system. In dry savannas, the increased water-use efficiency in plants relaxes precipitation-driven constraints and increases woody growth. In wet savannas, the increase of carbon allocation to tree roots results in faster recovery rates after disturbance and a greater likelihood of reaching sexual maturity. Our proposed framework can be tested using a mixture of experimental and earth observational techniques. At a local level, changes in precipitation, burning regimes or herbivory could be driving woody encroachment, but are unlikely to be the explanation of this continent-wide phenomenon.

Land management: data availability and process understanding for global change studies

In the light of daunting global sustainability challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss and food security, improving our understanding of the complex dynamics of the Earth system is crucial. However, large knowledge gaps related to the effects of land management persist, in particular those human-induced changes in terrestrial ecosystems that do not result in land-cover conversions. Here, we review the current state of knowledge of ten common land management activities for their biogeochemical and biophysical impacts, the level of process understanding and data availability. Our review shows that ca. one-tenth of the ice-free land surface is under intense human management, half under medium and one-fifth under extensive management. Based on our review, we cluster these ten management activities into three groups: (i) management activities for which data sets are available, and for which a good knowledge base exists (cropland harvest and irrigation); (ii) management activities for which sufficient knowledge on biogeochemical and biophysical effects exists but robust global data sets are lacking (forest harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, N fertilization); and (iii) land management practices with severe data gaps concomitant with an unsatisfactory level of process understanding (crop species selection, artificial wetland drainage, tillage and fire management and crop residue management, an element of crop harvest). Although we identify multiple impediments to progress, we conclude that the current status of process understanding and data availability is sufficient to advance with incorporating management in, for example, Earth system or dynamic vegetation models in order to provide a systematic assessment of their role in the Earth system. This review contributes to a strategic prioritization of research efforts across multiple disciplines, including land system research, ecological research and Earth system modelling.

Change in woody cover at representative sites in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, based on historical imagery

Background

The coexistence of woody vegetation and grass is a key characteristic of savanna ecological balance. Gains in woody vegetation at the expense of grass can lead to changes in grazer and browser carrying capacities on the savannas. This study examined long-term change in woody cover at four study sites representative of the geology and rainfall in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Scanned 1940/1942, 1968, and 1977 high spatial resolution (0.44–1.35 m) panchromatic aerial photographs were used, supplemented by 5 and 10 m resolution 1998 and 2012 panchromatic and red band grey scale digital SPOT images. The imagery datasets of the respective study sites were georeferenced to the UTM projection. Woody cover on the imagery was enhanced using texture analysis, and mapped by unsupervised classification of the texture images using the K-means clustering algorithm. Change in woody cover was mapped using Boolean addition Geographic Information System overlay analysis.

Results

The results indicated 29 and 40 % reductions in woody cover for the southern granites and southern basalts sites, respectively. The northern granites and northern basalts sites, on the other hand, had gains in woody cover over the analysis period. The location context-specific factors of fire frequency and elephant density, and not rainfall fluctuations, explained most of the change in woody cover.

Conclusions

The results point to the need for location context-specific management of fire and elephant concentrations. The changes in woody cover are likely to have effects on the grazer and browser carrying capacities of the savannas in the Kruger National Park.

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.