Estimating PM2.5 concentrations in Yangtze River Delta region of China using random forest model and the Top-of-Atmosphere reflectance

Assessing the impact of urban road transport development on haze pollution in the Yangtze River Delta region

The aim of this paper is to explore whether and how urban road transport (URT) development affects haze pollution. One of the innovations of this paper is that URT development is measured by road accessibility with novel digital elevation model datasets, which have been used by few scholars. The endogenous problem caused by revere causality issue in the relationship between URT development and haze pollution is also considered. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China from 2011 to 2018, this paper uses long-lagged values of URT development as the instrumental variable, employing the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. The study shows that URT development leads to an increase of haze pollution. Moreover, mechanism tests based on moderating and mediating models support the finding that decreasing haze pollution resulted from better connection effects, while rising agglomeration effects tend to bring about increasing haze pollution, and the latter effect is larger in magnitude than the former. Current URT development may have long-term negative consequences for livability of YRD cities, and urban decision makers should reconsider the effectiveness of the current road transport investment and construction.

Assessment of rainfall-derived inflow and infiltration in sewer systems with machine learning approaches

Rainfall-derived inflow/infiltration (RDII) modelling during heavy rainfall events is essential for sewer flow management. In this study, two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and long short-term memory (LSTM), were developed for sewer flow prediction and RDII estimation based on field monitoring data. The study implemented feature engineering for extracting physically significant features in sewer flow modelling and investigated the importance of the relevant features. The results from two case studies indicated the superior capability of machine learning models in RDII estimation in the combined and separated sewer systems, and LSTM model outperformed the two models. Compared to traditional methods, machine learning models were capable of simulating the temporal variation in RDII processes and improved prediction accuracy for peak flows and RDII volumes in storm events.

A study on identifying synergistic prevention and control regions for PM2.5 and O3 and exploring their spatiotemporal dynamic in China

Air pollutants, notably ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) give rise to evident adverse impacts on public health and the ecotope, prompting extensive global apprehension. Though PM2.5 has been effectively mitigated in China, O3 has been emerging as a primary pollutant, especially in summer. Currently, alleviating PM2.5 and O3 synergistically faces huge challenges. The synergistic prevention and control (SPC) regions of PM2.5 and O3 and their spatiotemporal patterns were still unclear. To address the above issues, this study utilized ground monitoring station data, meteorological data, and auxiliary data to predict the China High-Resolution O3 Dataset (CHROD) via a two-stage model. Furthermore, SPC regions were identified based on a spatial overlay analysis using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The standard deviation ellipse was employed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of SPC regions. Some outcomes were obtained. The two-stage model significantly improved the accuracy of O3 concentration prediction with acceptable R2 (0.86), and our CHROD presented higher spatiotemporal resolution compared with existing products. SPC regions exhibited significant spatiotemporal variations during the Blue Sky Protection Campaign (BSPC) in China. SPC regions were dominant in spring and autumn, and O3-controlled and PM2.5-dominated zones were detected in summer and winter, respectively. SPC regions were primarily located in the northwest, north, east, and central regions of China, specifically in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTH), Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Xinjiang, and Anhui provinces. The gravity center of SPC regions was distributed in the BTH in winter, and in Xinjiang during spring, summer, and autumn. This study can supply scientific references for the collaborative management of PM2.5 and O3.

Ultra-high-resolution mapping of ambient fine particulate matter to estimate human exposure in Beijing

With the decreasing regional-transported levels, the health risk assessment derived from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has become insufficient to reflect the contribution of local source heterogeneity to the exposure differences. Here, we combined the both ultra-high-resolution PM2.5 concentration with population distribution to provide the personal daily PM2.5 internal dose considering the indoor/outdoor exposure difference. A 30-m PM2.5 assimilating method was developed fusing multiple auxiliary predictors, achieving higher accuracy (R2 = 0.78-0.82) than the chemical transport model outputs without any post-simulation data-oriented enhancement (R2 = 0.31-0.64). Weekly difference was identified from hourly mobile signaling data in 30-m resolution population distribution. The population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations range among districts but fail to reflect exposure differences. Derived from the indoor/outdoor ratio, the average indoor PM2.5 concentration was 26.5 μg/m3. The internal dose based on the assimilated indoor/outdoor PM2.5 concentration shows high exposure diversity among sub-groups, and the attributed mortality increased by 24.0% than the coarser unassimilated model.

Trace metal contamination status in soils of the abandoned gold mining district of Bindiba (East Cameroon): Pollution indices assessment, multivariate analysis and; geostatistical approach

In this study, contamination by trace metals (TMs) such as Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Pb and Sb in the soils of the Bindiba mining district was assessed. This study aims to reveal the current status of the soil quality of the abandoned gold mining district of Bindiba and provide a scientific basis for its future remediation and overall management. 89 soil samples were systematically collected and characterized in order to determine the concentration of TMs (Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Pb and Sb). To assess the degree of metallic contamination, pollution indices were employed. Both multivariate statistical analysis (MSA) and geostatistical modelling (GM) were used to identify the potential sources of TMs elements and to determine the values of the modified contamination degree (mCd), the Nemerow Pollution Index (NPI) and the potential ecological risk index (RI) at un-sampled points. The results of trace metals (TMEs) characterization showed that the concentration of Cr, Ni, Cu, As, Pb and Sb ranged from 22.15-442.44 mg/kg, 9.25-360.37 mg/kg, 1.28-320.86 mg/kg, 0-46.58 mg/kg, 0-53.27 mg/kg and 0-6.33 mg/kg, respectively. The mean concentration of Cr, Cu and Ni exceeds the continental geochemical background values. The Enrichment Factor (EF) assessment indicates two categories of enrichment: moderately to extremely enrichment for Cr, Ni, and Cu and deficiency to minimal enrichment of Pb, As and Sb. Multivariate statistical analysis shows weak linear correlations between the studied heavy metals and suggests that these metals could not come from the same origins. The geostatistical modelling based on the values of mCd, NI and RI suggests a potential high pollution risk existed in the study area. The mCd, NPI and RI interpolation maps showed that the Northern part of the gold mining district was characterized by a high degree of contamination, heavy pollution, and considerable ecological risk. The dispersion of TMs in soils could mainly be attributed to anthropogenic activities and natural phenomena (chemical weathering or erosion). Appropriate measures should be taken to manage and remediate the TMs pollution in this abandoned gold mining district in order to reduce its negative effects on the environment and health of the local population.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40201-023-00849-y.

Developing PM2.5 and PM10 prediction models on a national and regional scale using open-source remote sensing data

Clean air is the precursor to a healthy life. Air quality is an issue that has been getting under its well-deserved spotlight in the last few years. From a remote sensing point of view, the first Copernicus mission with the main purpose of monitoring the atmosphere and tracking air pollutants, the Sentinel-5P TROPOMI mission, has been widely used worldwide. Particulate matter of a diameter smaller than 2.5 and 10 μm (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) significantly determines air quality. Still, there are no available satellite sensors that allow us to track them remotely with high accuracy, but only using ground stations. This research aims to estimate PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ using Sentinel-5P and other open-source remote sensing data available on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform for heating (December 2021, January, and February 2022) and non-heating seasons (June, July, and August 2021) on the territory of the Republic of Croatia. Ground stations of the National Network for Continuous Air Quality Monitoring were used as a starting point and as ground truth data. Raw hourly data were matched to remote sensing data, and seasonal models were trained at the national and regional scale using machine learning. The proposed approach uses a random forest algorithm with a percentage split of 70% and gives moderate to high accuracy regarding the temporal frame of the data. The mapping gives us visual insight between the ground and remote sensing data and shows the seasonal variations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀. The results showed that the proposed approach and models could efficiently estimate air quality.

Effects of urban form on air quality: A case study from China comparing years with normal and reduced human activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic

This study explored the dynamic and complex relationships between air quality and urban form when considering reduced human activities. Applying the random forest method to data from 62 prefecture-level cities in China, urban form-air quality relationships were compared between 2015 (a normal year) and 2020 (which had significantly reduced air pollution due to COVID-19 lockdowns). Significant differences were found between these two years; urban compactness, shape, and size were of prime importance to air quality in 2020, while fragmentation was the most critical factor in improving air quality in 2015. An important influence of traffic mode was also found when controlling air pollution. In general, in the pursuit of reducing air pollution across society, the best urban forms are continuous and compact with reasonable building layouts, population, and road densities, and high forest area ratios. A polycentric urban form that alleviates the negative impacts of traffic pollution is preferable. Urban development should aim to reduce air pollution, and optimizing the effects of urban form on air quality is a cost-effective way to create better living environments. This study provides a reference for decision-makers evaluating the effects of urban form on air pollution emission, dispersion, and concentration in the post-pandemic era.

Estimation of On-Road PM2.5 Distributions by Combining Satellite Top-of-Atmosphere With Microscale Geographic Predictors for Healthy Route Planning

How to reduce the health risks for commuters, caused by air pollution such as PM2.5 has always been an urgent issue needing to be solved. Proposed in this study, is a novel framework which enables greater avoidance of pollution and hence assists the provision of healthy travel. This framework is based on the estimation of on-road PM2.5 throughout the whole city. First, the micro-scale PM2.5 is predicted by land use regression (LUR) modeling enhanced by the use of the Landsat-8 top-of-atmosphere (TOA) data and microscale geographic predictors. In particular, the green view index (GVI) factor derived, the sky view factor, and the index-based built-up index, are incorporated within the TOA-LUR modeling. On-road PM2.5 distributions are then mapped in high-spatial-resolution. The maps obtained can be used to find healthy travel routes with less PM2.5. The proposed framework was applied in high-density Hong Kong by Landsat 8 images. External testing was based on mobile measurements. The results showed that the estimation performance of the proposed seasonal TOA-LUR Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression models is at a high-level with an R 2 of 0.70-0.90. The newly introduced GVI index played an important role in these estimations. The PM2.5 distribution maps at high-spatial-resolution were then used to develop an application providing Hong Kong residents with healthy route planning services. The proposed framework can, likewise, be applied in other cities to better ensure people's health when traveling, especially those in high-density cities.

Ultrahigh-resolution PM2.5 estimation from top-of-atmosphere reflectance with machine learning: Theories, methods, and applications

Intra-urban pollution monitoring requires fine particulate (PM_2.5) concentration mapping at ultrahigh-resolution (dozens to hundreds of meters). However, current PM_2.5 concentration estimation, which is mainly based on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and meteorological data, usually had a low spatial resolution (kilometers) and severe spatial missing problem, cannot be applied to intra-urban pollution monitoring. To solve these problems, top-of-atmosphere reflectance (TOAR), which contains both the information about land and atmosphere and has high resolution and large spatial coverage, may be efficiently used for PM_2.5 estimation. This study aims to systematically evaluate the feasibility of retrieving ultrahigh-resolution PM_2.5 concentration at a large scale (national level) from TOAR. Firstly, we make a detailed discussion about several important but unsolved theoretic problems on TOAR-based PM_2.5 retrieval, including the band selection, scale effect, cloud impact, and mapping quality evaluation. Secondly, four types and eight retrieval models are compared in terms of quantitative accuracy, mapping quality, model generalization, and model efficiency, with the pros and cons of each type summarized. Deep neural network (DNN) model shows the highest retrieval accuracy, and linear models were the best in efficiency and generalization. As a compromise, ensemble learning shows the best overall performance. Thirdly, using the highly accurate DNN model (cross-validated R² equals 0.93) and through combining Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 images, a 90 m and ∼4-day resolution PM_2.5 product was generated. The retrieved maps were used for analyzing the fine-scale interannual pollution change inner the city and the pollution variations during novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results of this study proves that ultrahigh resolution can bring new findings of intra-urban pollution change, which cannot be observed at previous coarse resolution. Lastly, some suggestions for future ultrahigh-resolution PM_2.5 mapping research were given.

Estimation of Regional Ground-Level PM2.5 Concentrations Directly from Satellite Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance Using A Hybrid Learning Model

The accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations is important for environmental protection. The accuracy of the commonly used prediction methods is not high; so, this paper proposes a PM2.5 concentration prediction method based on a hybrid learning model. The Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance (TOAR), PM2.5 data decomposed by wavelets, and meteorological data were used as input features to build an integrated prediction model using random forest and LightGBM, which was applied to PM2.5 concentration prediction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The practical application showed that the proposed method using TOAR, incorporating wavelet decomposition with meteorological element data, had an improvement of 0.06 in the R2 of the model accuracy and a reduction of 2.93 and 1.14 in the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), respectively, over the model using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). Our model had a prediction accuracy of R2 of 0.91, which was better than the other models. We used this model to estimate and analyze the variation in PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and the results were the same as the actual PM2.5 concentration distribution trend. Obviously, the proposed model has a high prediction accuracy and can avoid the errors caused by the limitations of the AOD inversion method.

Season, not lockdown, improved air quality during COVID-19 State of Emergency in Nigeria

Globally, ambient air pollution claims ~9 million lives yearly, prompting researchers to investigate changes in air quality. Of special interest is the impact of COVID-19 lockdown. Many studies reported substantial improvements in air quality during lockdowns compared with pre-lockdown or as compared with baseline values. Since the lockdown period coincided with the onset of the rainy season in some tropical countries such as Nigeria, it is unclear if such improvements can be fully attributed to the lockdown. We investigate whether significant changes in air quality in Nigeria occurred primarily due to statewide COVID-19 lockdown. We applied a neural network approach to derive monthly average ground-level fine aerosol optical depth (AODf) across Nigeria from year 2001-2020, using the Multi-angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) AODs from Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellites, AERONET aerosol optical properties, meteorological and spatial parameters. During the year 2020, we found a 21% or 26% decline in average AODf level across Nigeria during lockdown (April) as compared to pre-lockdown (March), or during the easing phase-1 (May) as compared to lockdown, respectively. Throughout the 20-year period, AODf levels were highest in January and lowest in May or June, but not April. Comparison of AODf levels between 2020 and 2019 shows a small decline (1%) in pollution level in April of 2020 compare to 2019. Using a linear time-lag model to compare changes in AODf levels for similar months from 2002 to 2020, we found no significant difference (Levene's test and ANCOVA; α = 0.05) in the pollution levels by year, which indicates that the lockdown did not significantly improve air quality in Nigeria. Impact analysis using multiple linear regression revealed that favorable meteorological conditions due to seasonal change in temperature, relative humidity, planetary boundary layer height, wind speed and rainfall improved air quality during the lockdown.

Ambient PM2.5 Estimates and Variations during COVID-19 Pandemic in the Yangtze River Delta Using Machine Learning and Big Data

The lockdown of cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during COVID-19 has provided many natural and typical test sites for estimating the potential of air pollution control and reduction. To evaluate the reduction of PM2.5 concentration in the YRD region by the epidemic lockdown policy, this study employs big data, including PM2.5 observations and 29 independent variables regarding Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), climate, terrain, population, road density, and Gaode map Point of interesting (POI) data, to build regression models and retrieve spatially continuous distributions of PM2.5 during COVID-19. Simulation accuracy of multiple machine learning regression models, i.e., random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) were compared. The results showed that the RF model outperformed the SVR and ANN models in the inversion of PM2.5 in the YRD region, with the model-fitting and cross-validation coefficients of determination R2 reached 0.917 and 0.691, mean absolute error (MAE) values were 1.026 μg m−3 and 2.353 μg m−3, and root mean square error (RMSE) values were 1.413 μg m−3, and 3.144 μg m−3, respectively. PM2.5 concentrations during COVID-19 in 2020 have decreased by 3.61 μg m−3 compared to that during the same period of 2019 in the YRD region. The results of this study provide a cost-effective method of air pollution exposure assessment and help provide insight into the atmospheric changes under strong government controlling strategies.

Particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) generation map using MODIS Level-1 satellite images and deep neural network

Most studies about particulate matter (PM) estimation have been done based on satellite-derived optical depth aerosol (AOD) products. But, the use of AOD products having coarse resolution is not possible for PM map generation in small spatial coverage such as local cities. To solve this issue, a PM estimation framework is proposed in this work which accepts the original calibrated radiance of MODIS-Level 1 images as input. There are no intermediate computations for atmospheric reflectance or aerosol thickness calculation. A deep neural network consisting of recurrent layers is proposed to extract the relationship between the grey level values of the satellite image bands and the PM measurements in different days and locations. Two individual networks are trained for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations. The PM_2.5 map and PM₁₀ map of Tehran city are generated. The performance of the proposed method is compared with several recently published air pollution studies. The results show that the proposed method is a simple, low cost and efficient approach for PM generation of small-scaled coverage using free available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images.

Improved Mapping of Potentially Toxic Elements in Soil via Integration of Multiple Data Sources and Various Geostatistical Methods

Soil pollution by potentially toxic elements (PTEs) has become a core issue around the world. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of PTEs in soil is crucial for soil remediation. Portable X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (p-XRF) provides a cost-saving alternative to the traditional laboratory analysis of soil PTEs. In this study, we collected 293 soil samples from Fuyang County in Southeast China. Subsequently, we used several geostatistical methods, such as inverse distance weighting (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), and empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK), to estimate the spatial variability of soil PTEs measured by the laboratory and p-XRF methods. The final maps of soil PTEs were outputted by the model averaging method, which combines multiple maps previously created by IDW, OK, and EBK, using both lab and p-XRF data. The study results revealed that the mean PTE content measured by the laboratory methods was as follows: Zn (127.43 mg kg−1) > Cu (31.34 mg kg−1) > Ni (20.79 mg kg−1) > As (10.65 mg kg−1) > Cd (0.33 mg kg−1). p-XRF measurements showed a spatial prediction accuracy of soil PTEs similar to that of laboratory analysis measurements. The spatial prediction accuracy of different PTEs outputted by the model averaging method was as follows: Zn (R2 = 0.71) > Cd (R2 = 0.68) > Ni (R2 = 0.67) > Cu (R2 = 0.62) > As (R2 = 0.50). The prediction accuracy of the model averaging method for five PTEs studied herein was improved compared with that of the laboratory and p-XRF methods, which utilized individual geostatistical methods (e.g., IDW, OK, EBK). Our results proved that p-XRF was a reliable alternative to the traditional laboratory analysis methods for mapping soil PTEs. The model averaging approach improved the prediction accuracy of the soil PTE spatial distribution and reduced the time and cost of monitoring and mapping PTE soil contamination.

Estimating PM2.5 Concentrations Using Spatially Local Xgboost Based on Full-Covered SARA AOD at the Urban Scale

The adverse effects caused by PM2.5 have drawn extensive concern and it is of great significance to identify its spatial distribution. Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely used for PM2.5 estimation. However, the coarse spatial resolution and the gaps caused by data deficiency impede its better application at the urban scale. Additionally, obtaining accurate results in unsampled spatial areas when PM2.5 ground sites are insufficient and distribute sparsely is also a challenging issue for PM2.5 spatial distribution estimation. This paper aimed to develop a model, i.e., spatially local extreme gradient boosting (SL-XGB), combining the powerful fitting ability of machine learning and optimal bandwidths of local models, to better estimate PM2.5 concentration at the urban scale by using Beijing as the study area. This paper adopted simplified high-resolution MODIS aerosol retrieval algorithm (SARA) AOD at 500 m resolution as the major independent variable, hence, ensuring the estimation can be operated at a fine scale. Moreover, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model was adopted to fill the gaps in SARA AOD, thus improving its availability. Then, based on full-covered SARA AOD and other multisource data, the SL-XGB model, integrating multiple local XGBoost models and particular optimal bandwidths, was trained to estimate PM2.5 concentration. For comparison, SL-XGB and two other models, XGBoost and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were evaluated by 10-fold cross validation (CV). The sample-based CV results reveal that the SL-XGB performed the best as assessed through R2 (0.88), root mean square error (RMSE = 24.08 μg/m3) and mean prediction error (MPE = 16.90 μg/m3). Additionally, SL-XGB also performed the best in the site-based CV with a R2 of 0.86, a RMSE of 26.15 μg/m3 and a MPE of 17.97 μg/m3, which shows its good spatial generalization ability. These results demonstrate that SL-XGB can better simultaneously handle non-linear and spatial heterogeneity issues despite spatially limited data at the urban scale. As far as the PM2.5 concentration distribution was concerned, it presented a gradient increase in PM2.5 concentrations from the northwest to the southeast in Beijing, with abundant spatial details. Overall, the proposed approach for PM2.5 estimation showed outstanding performance and can support preventive pollution control and mitigation at the urban scale.