Effects of land use and land cover change on soil organic carbon storage in the Hexi regions, Northwest China

Major overlap in plant and soil organic carbon hotspots across Africa

Terrestrial plant and soil organic carbon stocks are critical for regulating climate change, enhancing soil fertility, and supporting biodiversity. While a global-scale decoupling between plant and soil organic carbon has been documented, the hotspots and interconnections between these two carbon compartments across Africa, the second-largest continent on the planet, have been significantly overlooked. Here, we have compiled over 10,000 existing soil organic carbon observations to generate a high-resolution map, illustrating the distribution pattern of soil organic carbon in Africa. We then showed that above- and below-ground plant carbon are significantly and positively correlated with soil organic carbon across Africa. Both soil and plant carbon compartments shared major hotspots in the tropical regions. Our study provides critical insights into the spatial distribution of carbon hotspots across Africa, essential for soil conservation and safeguarding terrestrial carbon stocks amidst the challenges of climate change.

The dominant influencing factors of desertification and ecological risk changes in Qinghai Area of Qilian Mountains National Park: Climate change or human activity?

Transitional features of desert environments partially determine the risks associated with ecosystems. Influenced by climate change and human activities, the variability and uncertainty of desertification levels and ecological risks in the Qinghai Area of Qilian Mountain National Park (QMNPQA) has become increasingly prominent. As a critical ecological barrier in northwest China, monitoring desertification dynamics and ecological risks is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability. This study identifies the optimal monitoring model from four constructed desertification monitoring models and analyzes spatiotemporal changes in desertification. The spatial and temporal changes in ecological risks and their primary driving factors were analyzed using methods such as raster overlay calculation, geographic detector, cloud model, and trend analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The desertification feature spatial model based on GNDVI-Albedo demonstrates better applicability in the study area, with an inversion accuracy of 81.24%. The levels of desertification and ecological risks in QMNPQA exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with a gradual decrease observed from northwest to southeast. From 2000 to 2020, there is an overall decreasing trend in desertification levels and ecological risks, with the decreasing trend area accounting for 89.82% and 85.71% respectively, mainly concentrated in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the study area. The proportion of areas with increasing trends is 4.49% and 7.05% respectively, scattered in patches in the central and southern edge areas. Surface temperature (ST), Digital Elevation Map (DEM), and Green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) are the most influential factors determining the spatial distribution of ecological risks in QMNPQA. The effects of management and climatic factors on ecological risks demonstrate a significant antagonistic effect, highlighting the positive contributions of human activities in mitigating the driving effects of climate change on ecological risks. The research results can provide reference for desertification prevention and ecological quality improvement in QMNPQA.

Effects of cropping patterns on the distribution, carbon contents, and nitrogen contents of aeolian sand soil aggregates in Northwest China

The long-term physicochemical responses of aeolian sandy soil aggregates to different crop rotation patterns are poorly understood. Here, we collected soil samples from the 0 to 20 cm tillage layer of continuous maize crop and alfalfa-maize rotation plots situated on the edge of the Zhangye Oasis, Northwest China. These samples were analyzed to quantify the influence of both cropping patterns on the structure, carbon content, and nitrogen content of aeolian sandy soils. When compared with long-term continuous maize cropping, planting alfalfa-maize rotation system significantly increased the mass fraction of macro-aggregates with sizes of > 2 mm and 0.25-2 mm from 8.7 to 12.1% and 19.1 to 21.2%, respectively, but decreased the mass fraction of micro-aggregates (0.053-0.25 mm) from 8.1 to 6.2%. Further, there was no significant difference in the content of silt and clay particles between each system. The alfalfa-maize rotation increased the stability of aggregates from 32 to 37%, representing an increase of 15.6%. Soil organic carbon, inorganic carbon, and total nitrogen were mainly enriched in macro-aggregates with sizes of > 2 mm, and silt and clay fractions for both cropping patterns. Implementation of a rotation pattern increased organic carbon contents by 27.2%, 25.6%, 26.7%, and 27.6%, inorganic carbon contents by 14.4%, 4.5%, 53.3%, and 21.0%, and total nitrogen contents by 29.7%, 7.0%, 4.2%, and 50.0% in aggregate particle sizes of > 2 mm, 0.25-2 mm, 0.053-0.25 mm, and < 0.053 mm, respectively, when compared to continuous maize cropping. The alfalfa-maize crop rotation can therefore effectively improve soil aggregate composition and aggregate stability, alongside organic carbon content, inorganic carbon content, total nitrogen content, and their storage capacity. This system thus represents a soil cultivation technique that can increase the soil carbon sequestration capacity in the oasis zone of Northwest China.

Future carbon storages of ecosystem based on land use change and carbon sequestration practices in a large economic belt

Assessments of ecosystem carbon storage are needed to form the scientific basis for carbon policies. Due to lack of data, there are few accurate, large-scale, and long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon storage. This study used the Distributed Land-Use Change Prediction (DLUCP) model with ten socioeconomic and two climate change scenarios for a total of 20 combinations that take into account population increase, technology innovation, climate change, and Grain for Green Project to make high-resolution predictions of land use change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Low and high carbon sequestration practices were considered to predict future carbon densities. Land use change data, carbon densities data, and the InVEST model were used to predict changes in ecosystem carbon storage from now to 2070. The results show a slight increase (1.88-4.17%) in carbon storage in the study area only based on land use change. Grain for Green Project has the largest impact on carbon storage among population increase, technology innovation, climate scenarios, and Grain for Green Project, which increases carbon storage by 4.17%. After the implementation of carbon sequestration practices, there is an increase in carbon storages from 28.51 to 56.77% in the study area from now to 2070, and increasing carbon storages of forest in each stream and carbon storage of cropland in downstream are efficient ways to achieve carbon neutralization.

Climate plays a dominant role over land management in governing soil carbon dynamics in North Western Himalayas

The soil carbon (C) dynamics is strongly influenced by climate and land-use patterns in the Himalayas. Therefore, soils under five prominent land use [e.g., maize (Zea mays), horticulture, natural forest, grassland, and wasteland] were sampled down up to 30 cm depth under two climatic conditions viz., temperate and subtropical to assess the impacts of climate and landuse on soil C dynamics. Results demonstrated that irrespective of land use, temperate soil contains 30.66% higher C than subtropical soils. Temperate soils under natural forests had the higher total organic carbon (TOC, 21.90 g kg^-1), Walkley-Black carbon (WBC, 16.42 g kg^-1), contents, and stocks (TOC, 66.92 Mg ha^-1 and WBC, 50.24 Mg ha^-1), and total soil organic matter (TSOM, 3.78%) concentration as compared to other land uses like maize, horticulture, grassland, and wasteland. Under both climatic conditions, maize land use had the lowest TOC 9.63, 6.55 g kg^-1 and WBC 7.22, 4.91 g kg^-1 at 0-15 and 15-30 cm soil depth, respectively. Horticulture land use had 62.58 and 62.61% higher TOC and WBC over maize-based land use under subtropical and temperate climatic conditions at 0-30 cm soil depth, respectively. However, soils of maize land use under temperate conditions had ∼2 times more TOC than in subtropical conditions. The study inferred that the C-losses is more in the subtropical soil than in temperate soils. Hence, the subtropical region needs more rigorous adoption of C conservation farming practices than the temperate climatic setting. Although, the adoption of C storing and conserving practices is crucial under both climatic settings to arrest land degradation. Horticultural land uses along with conservation effective soil management practices may be encouraged to restore more soil C and to improve the livelihood security of the hill populace in the North Western Himalayas.

Quantifying changes in soil organic carbon density from 1982 to 2020 in Chinese grasslands using a random forest model

China has the second-largest grassland area in the world. Soil organic carbon storage (SOCS) in grasslands plays a critical role in maintaining carbon balance and mitigating climate change, both nationally and globally. Soil organic carbon density (SOCD) is an important indicator of SOCS. Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of SOCD enables policymakers to develop strategies to reduce carbon emissions, thus meeting the goals of "emission peak" in 2030 and "carbon neutrality" in 2060 proposed by the Chinese government. The objective of this study was to quantify the dynamics of SOCD (0-100 cm) in Chinese grasslands from 1982 to 2020 and identify the dominant drivers of SOCD change using a random forest model. The results showed that the mean SOCD in Chinese grasslands was 7.791 kg C m^-2 in 1982 and 8.525 kg C m^-2 in 2020, with a net increase of 0.734 kg C m^-2 across China. The areas with increased SOCD were mainly distributed in the southern (0.411 kg C m^-2), northwestern (1.439 kg C m^-2), and Qinghai-Tibetan (0.915 kg C m^-2) regions, while those with decreased SOCD were mainly found in the northern (0.172 kg C m^-2) region. Temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, elevation, and wind speed were the dominant factors driving grassland SOCD change, explaining 73.23% of total variation in SOCD. During the study period, grassland SOCS increased in the northwestern region but decreased in the other three regions. Overall, SOCS of Chinese grasslands in 2020 was 22.623 Pg, with a net decrease of 1.158 Pg since 1982. Over the past few decades, the reduction in SOCS caused by grassland degradation may have contributed to soil organic carbon loss and created a negative impact on climate. The results highlight the urgency of strengthening soil carbon management in these grasslands and improving SOCS towards a positive climate impact.

Spatial and structural characteristics of the ecological network of carbon metabolism of cultivated land based on land use and cover change: a case study of Nanchang, China

This paper explored the ecological network of CMCL (carbon metabolism of cultivated land) of Nanchang City from 2000 to 2020 to promote the low-carbon land management and China's dual carbon goals. We found that vertical and horizontal net carbon flow of cultivated land was negative during 2000-2020, and harmful carbon flow was mainly generated by the conversion of cultivated land to transportation and industrial land. Cultivated land contributed the most of the total carbon throughflow, accounting for 56.16%. Furthermore, exploitation and control relationships made maximal contribution to ecological relationships (45.83%), followed by competition relationships and mutualism relationships. In addition, ecological utility index showed the ecological network of CMCL is unhealthy. We suggest that it is necessary to achieve healthy and orderly operation of the ecological network of CMCL to reduce carbon emissions.

The role of land use change in affecting ecosystem services and the ecological security pattern of the Hexi Regions, Northwest China

The land use and land cover change (LUCC) associated with climate change and human activities is supposed to exert a significant effect on ecosystem functions in arid inland regions. However, the role of LUCC in shaping the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem services and ecological security remain unclear, especially under different future LUCC scenarios. Here, we evaluated dynamic changes of ecosystem services and ecological security pattern (ESP) in the Hexi Regions based on LUCC and other environment variables by integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), entropy weight method and circuit theory. Our result showed that the LUCC was generally stable from 1980 to 2050. Compare to 2020, the land conversion under natural growth (NG), ecological protection (EP) and urban development (UD) scenarios in 2050 has changed by 10.30 %, 10.10 %, and 10.31 %, respectively. The forest, medium-cover grassland and water increased in the EP scenario, and construction land and cropland greatly expanded in the other two scenarios. Ecosystem services grew larger in the EP scenario by 2050 in comparison with the NG and UD scenarios. The ESP in the Hexi Regions has obvious spatial differences during 1980-2050. The larger ecological sources and less resistance corridors were mainly distributed in the central and eastern of the Hexi Regions with high ecosystem services. Conversely, fragmented ecological sources and larger resistance corridors were mostly located in the western regions blocked by sandy land, bare land or mountains. Compared to 2020, the area of ecological sources and pinch points under the EP scenario in 2050 increased by 4.10 × 10³ km² and 0.31 × 10³ km², respectively. The number of ecological corridors reduced while the length and resistance increased apart from the EP scenario. Our results highlighted the importance of ecological protection in shaping the LUCC, which further enhances the integrity of ecosystem and ecological security.

How does digital technology promote carbon emission reduction? Empirical evidence based on e-commerce pilot city policy in China

Digital technology is an effective way to realize the carbon neutrality target in China. Therefore, based on panel data at the city level in China from 2006 to 2016, we take the e-commerce pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, using the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) method to explore the effect of digital technology development on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism. The conclusion of this paper shows that (ⅰ) the e-commerce pilot policy has significantly reduced carbon emissions. After a series of robustness tests, this empirical conclusion is still valid. (ⅱ) The inhibitory effect of different waves of e-commerce pilot cities on carbon emissions sequentially decreases. The e-commerce pilot policy has a greater effect on reducing carbon emissions in non-old industrial based cities and non-resource-based cities. (ⅲ) Implementing the e-commerce pilot city policy mainly reduces urban carbon emissions by optimizing resource allocation, reducing energy consumption and upgrading the industrial structure. (ⅳ) In addition, implementing the e-commerce pilot city policy has a significant positive carbon-reducing linkage effect with the carbon trading pilot policy and the low-carbon city pilot policy. The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence for carbon emission reduction, which has implications for upgrading urban construction patterns and promoting green urban development.

Deducing Leading Factors of Spatial Distribution of Carbon Reserves in Nanjing Metropolitan Area Based on Random Forest Model

Improving carbon reserves is considered to be an important way to alleviate global warming. However, there is a lack of research work based on the perspective of metropolitan area, and there is also a lack of analysis on the leading influencing factors of spatial distribution of carbon storage in subregions of metropolitan area. In this study, Nanjing metropolitan area (NMA) is taken as the research area, and the InVEST model is used to calculate the spatial distribution of regional carbon reserves, and the evolution of carbon reserves distribution in recent 20 years is analyzed. Then, based on the random forest (RF) model, taking the whole study area and subareas as the research scope, a regression model of each selected impact factor and carbon reserves is established, and the leading factors of spatial distribution of carbon reserves in NMA are obtained. The results show that the overall carbon reserves level in the study area is in a downward trend. Through the application of the RF model, the leading factors of the spatial distribution of carbon reserves in NMA and its subareas are derived. The research proves that the application of the RF model in the analysis is helpful for city planners and governments to make plans and improve regional carbon storage more effectively.

The Role of Soil Salinization in Shaping the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Soil Organic Carbon Stock

Soil salinization is closely related to land degradation, and it is supposed to exert a significant negative effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) stock dynamics. This effect and its mechanism have been examined at site and transect scales in previous studies while over a large spatial extent, the salinity-induced changes in SOC stock over space and time have been less quantified, especially by machine learning and remote sensing techniques. The main focus of this study is to answer the following question: to what extent can soil salinity exert an additional effect on SOC stock over time at a larger spatial scale? Thus, we employed the extreme gradient boosting models (XGBoost) combined with field site-level measurements from 433 sites and 41 static and time-varying environmental covariates to construct methods capable of quantifying the salinity-induced SOC changes in a typical inland river basin of China between the 1990s and 2020s. Results showed that the XGBoost models performed well in predicting the soil electrical conductivity (EC) and SOC stock at 0–20 cm, with the R2 value reaching 0.85 and 0.81, respectively. SOC stock was found to vary significantly with increasing soil salinity following an exponential decay function (R2 = 0.27), and salinity sensitivity analysis showed that soils in oasis were expected to experience the largest carbon loss (−137.78 g m−2), which was about 4.84, 14.37, and 25.95 times higher than that in the saline, bare, and sandy land, respectively, if the soil salinity increased by 100%. In addition, the decrease in the soil salinity (−0.32 dS m−1) from the 1990s to the 2020s was estimated to enhance the SOC stock by 0.015 kg m−2, which contributed an additional 10% increase to the total SOC stock enhancement. Overall, the proposed methods can be applied for quantification of the direction and size of the salinity effect on SOC stock changes in other salt-affected regions. Our results also suggest that the role of soil salinization should not be neglected in SOC changes projection, and soil salinization control measures should be further taken into practice to enhance soil carbon sequestration in arid inland river basins.

Impacts of Land-Use Change on the Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Gansu Province, Northwest China

Land-use change is supposed to exert significant effects on the spatio-temporal patterns of ecosystem carbon storage in arid regions, while the relative size of land-use change effect under future environmental change conditions is still less quantified. In this study, we combined a land-use change dataset with a satellite-based high-resolution biomass and soil organic carbon dataset to determine the role of land-use change in affecting ecosystem carbon storage from 1980 to 2050 in the Gansu province of China, using the MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models. In addition, to quantify the relative size of the land-use change effect in comparison with other environmental drivers, we also considered the effects of climate change, CO2 enrichment, and cropland and forest managements in the models. The results show that the ecosystem carbon storage in the Gansu province increased by 208.9 ± 99.85 Tg C from 1980 to 2020, 12.87% of which was caused by land-use change, and the rest was caused by climate change, CO2 enrichment, and ecosystem managements. The land-use change-induced carbon sequestration was mainly associated with the land-use category conversion from farmland to grassland as well as from saline land and desert to farmland, driven by the grain-for-green projects in the Loess Plateau and oasis cultivation in the Hexi Corridor. Furthermore, it was projected that ecosystem carbon storage in the Gansu province from 2020 to 2050 will change from −14.69 ± 12.28 Tg C to 57.83 ± 53.42 Tg C (from 105.62 ± 51.83 Tg C to 177.03 ± 94.1 Tg C) for the natural development (ecological protection) scenario. By contrast, the land-use change was supposed to individually increase the carbon storage by 56.46 ± 9.82 (165.84 ± 40.06 Tg C) under the natural development (ecological protection) scenario, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of ecological protection and restoration in enhancing ecosystem carbon storage for arid regions, especially under future climate change conditions.