Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

Ionizing radiation affects the demography and the evolution of Caenorhabditis elegans populations

Ionizing radiation can reduce survival, reproduction and affect development, and lead to the extinction of populations if their evolutionary response is insufficient. However, demographic and evolutionary studies on the effects of ionizing radiation are still scarce. Using an experimental evolution approach, we analyzed population growth rate and associated change in life history traits across generations in Caenorhabditis elegans populations exposed to 0, 1.4, and 50.0 mGy.h^-1 of ionizing radiation (gamma external irradiation). We found a higher population growth rate in the 1.4 mGy.h^-1 treatment and a lower in the 50.0 mGy.h^-1 treatment compared to the control. Realized fecundity was lower in both 1.4 and 50.0 mGy.h^-1 than control treatment. High irradiation levels decreased brood size from self-fertilized hermaphrodites, specifically early brood size. Finally, high irradiation levels decreased hatching success compared to the control condition. In reciprocal-transplant experiments, we found that life in low irradiation conditions led to the evolution of higher hatching success and late brood size. These changes could provide better tolerance against ionizing radiation, investing more in self-maintenance than in reproduction. These evolutionary changes were with some costs of adaptation. This study shows that ionizing radiation has both demographic and evolutionary consequences on populations.

Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for radiation-induced reproductive effects in environmental species: state of science and identification of a consensus AOP network

BACKGROUND

Reproductive effects of ionizing radiation in organisms have been observed under laboratory and field conditions. Such assessments often rely on associations between exposure and effects, and thus lacking a detailed mechanistic understanding of causality between effects occurring at different levels of biological organization. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP), a conceptual knowledge framework to capture, organize, evaluate and visualize the scientific knowledge of relevant toxicological effects, has the potential to evaluate the causal relationships between molecular, cellular, individual, and population effects. This paper presents the first development of a set of consensus AOPs for reproductive effects of ionizing radiation in wildlife. This work was performed by a group of experts formed during a workshop organized jointly by the Multidisciplinary European Low Dose Initiative (MELODI) and the European Radioecology Alliance (ALLIANCE) associations to present the AOP approach and tools. The work presents a series of taxon-specific case studies that were used to identify relevant empirical evidence, identify common AOP components and propose a set of consensus AOPs that could be organized into an AOP network with broader taxonomic applicability.

CONCLUSION

Expert consultation led to the identification of key biological events and description of causal linkages between ionizing radiation, reproductive impairment and reduction in population fitness. The study characterized the knowledge domain of taxon-specific AOPs, identified knowledge gaps pertinent to reproductive-relevant AOP development and reflected on how AOPs could assist applications in radiation (radioecological) research, environmental health assessment, and radiological protection. Future advancement and consolidation of the AOPs is planned to include structured weight of evidence considerations, formalized review and critical assessment of the empirical evidence prior to formal submission and review by the OECD sponsored AOP development program.

Effects of Microplastic on the Population Dynamics of a Marine Copepod: Insights from a Laboratory Experiment and a Mechanistic Model

Microplastic is ubiquitously and persistently present in the marine environment, but knowledge of its population-level effects is limited. In the present study, to quantify the potential theoretical population effect of microplastic, a two-step approach was followed. First, the impact of microplastic (polyethylene, 0.995 g cm^-3 , diameter 10-45 µm) on the filtration rate of the pelagic copepod Temora longicornis was investigated under laboratory conditions. It was found that the filtration rate decreased at increasing microplastic concentrations and followed a concentration-response relationship but that at microplastic concentrations <100 particles L^-1 the filtration rate was not affected. From the concentration-response relationship between the microplastic concentrations and the individual filtration rate a median effect concentration of the individual filtration rate (48 h) of 1956 ± 311 particles L^-1 was found. In a second step, the dynamics of a T. longicornis population were simulated for realistic environmental conditions, and the effects of microplastics on the population density equilibrium were assessed. The empirical filtration rate data were incorporated in an individual-based model implementation of the dynamic energy budget theory to deduct potential theoretical population-level effects. The yearly averaged concentration at which the population equilibrium density would decrease by 50% was 593 ± 376 particles L^-1 . The theoretical effect concentrations at the population level were 4-fold lower than effect concentrations at the individual level. However, the theoretical effect concentrations at the population level remain 3-5 orders of magnitude higher than ambient microplastic concentrations. Because the present experiment was short-term laboratory-based and the results were only indirectly validated with field data, the in situ implications of microplastic pollution for the dynamics of zooplankton field populations remain to be further investigated. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:1663-1674. © 2022 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

A few considerations on some current modelling approaches to assess the impact of radiation on the population size of wildlife species

This note outlines some features of current state-of-the-art models aimed at assessing the radiological impact on wildlife. Such models can be interpreted as particular realisations of an archetypal model from which they can be derived on the basis of specific hypotheses described and analysed here. A stressor can influence, to varying degrees, on the one hand, the inherent biological mortality of a species and, on the other hand, the actual mortality of a species competing for survival in the ecosystem. Generally, the actual mortality rate of a species impacted by a stressor is linked through complicated mathematical relationships to the excess biological mortality caused by the stressor. Such relationships may depend on the particular type of model. The models can be of help to select criteria for the assessment of the radiological impact and to identify suitable parameters for its evaluation.

Integration of ecosystem science into radioecology: A consensus perspective

In the Fall of 2016 a workshop was held which brought together over 50 scientists from the ecological and radiological fields to discuss feasibility and challenges of reintegrating ecosystem science into radioecology. There is a growing desire to incorporate attributes of ecosystem science into radiological risk assessment and radioecological research more generally, fueled by recent advances in quantification of emergent ecosystem attributes and the desire to accurately reflect impacts of radiological stressors upon ecosystem function. This paper is a synthesis of the discussions and consensus of the workshop participant's responses to three primary questions, which were: 1) How can ecosystem science support radiological risk assessment? 2) What ecosystem level endpoints potentially could be used for radiological risk assessment? and 3) What inference strategies and associated methods would be most appropriate to assess the effects of radionuclides on ecosystem structure and function? The consensus of the participants was that ecosystem science can and should support radiological risk assessment through the incorporation of quantitative metrics that reflect ecosystem functions which are sensitive to radiological contaminants. The participants also agreed that many such endpoints exit or are thought to exit and while many are used in ecological risk assessment currently, additional data need to be collected that link the causal mechanisms of radiological exposure to these endpoints. Finally, the participants agreed that radiological risk assessments must be designed and informed by rigorous statistical frameworks capable of revealing the causal inference tying radiological exposure to the endpoints selected for measurement.

Dosimetric modeling of Tc-99, Cs-137, Np-237, and U-238 in the grass species Andropogon Virginicus: Development and comparison of stylized, voxel, and hybrid phantom geometry

This paper discusses the development, comparison, and application of three anatomically representative computational phantoms for the grass species Andropogon virginicus, an indigenous grass species in the Southeastern United States. Specifically, the phantoms developed in this work are: (1) a stylized phantom where plant organs (roots or shoots) are represented by simple geometric shapes, (2) a voxel phantom developed from micro-CT imagery of a plant specimen, and (3) a hybrid phantom resulting from the refinement of (2) by use of non-uniform rational basis spline (NURBS) surfaces. For each computational phantom, Monte Carlo dosimetric modeling was utilized to determine whole-organism and organ specific dose coefficients (DC) associated with external and internal exposure to ⁹⁹Tc, ¹³⁷Cs, ²³⁷Np, and ²³⁸U for A. virginicus. Model DCs were compared to each other and to current values for the ICRP reference wild grass in order to determine if noteworthy differences resulted from the utilization of more anatomically realistic phantom geometry. Modeled internal DCs were comparable with ICRP values. However, modeled external DCs were more variable with respect to ICRP values; this is proposed to be primarily due to differences in organism and source geometry definitions. Overall, the three anatomical phantoms were reasonably consistent. Some noticeable differences in internal DCs were observed between the stylized model and the voxel or hybrid models for external DCs for shoots and for cases of crossfire between plant organs. Additionally, uptake data from previous hydroponic (HP) experiments was applied in conjunction with hybrid model DCs to determine dose rates to the plant from individual radionuclides as an example of practical application. Although the models within are applied to a small-scale, hypothetical scenario as proof-of-principle, the potential, real-world utility of such complex dosimetric models for non-human biota is discussed, and a fit-for purpose approach for application of these models is proposed.

Modeling species richness and abundance of phytoplankton and zooplankton in radioactively contaminated water bodies

Water bodies polluted by the Mayak nuclear plant in Russia provide valuable information on multi-generation effects of radioactive contamination on freshwater organisms. For example, lake Karachay was probably the most radioactive lake in the world: its water contained ∼2 × 10⁷ Bq/L of radionuclides and estimated dose rates to plankton exceeded 5 Gy/h. We performed quantitative modeling of radiation effects on phytoplankton and zooplankton species richness and abundance in Mayak-contaminated water bodies. Due to collinearity between radioactive contamination, water body size and salinity, we combined these variables into one (called HabitatFactors). We employed a customized machine learning approach, where synthetic noise variables acted as benchmarks of predictor performance. HabitatFactors was the only predictor that outperformed noise variables and, therefore, we used it for parametric modeling of plankton responses. Best-fit model predictions suggested 50% species richness reduction at HabitatFactors values corresponding to dose rates of 10⁴-10⁵ μGy/h for phytoplankton, and 10³-10⁴ μGy/h for zooplankton. Under conditions similar to those in lake Karachay, best-fit models predicted 81-98% species richness reductions for various taxa (Cyanobacteria, Bacillariophyta, Chlorophyta, Rotifera, Cladocera and Copepoda), ∼20-300-fold abundance reduction for total zooplankton, but no abundance reduction for phytoplankton. Rotifera was the only taxon whose fractional abundance increased with contamination level, reaching 100% in lake Karachay, but Rotifera species richness declined with contamination level, as in other taxa. Under severe radioactive and chemical contamination, one species of Cyanobacteria (Geitlerinema amphibium) dominated phytoplankton, and rotifers from the genus Brachionus dominated zooplankton. The modeling approaches proposed here are applicable to other radioecological data sets. The results provide quantitative information and easily interpretable model parameter estimates for the shapes and magnitudes of freshwater plankton responses to a wide range of radioactive contamination levels.

Adapting population models for application in pesticide risk assessment: A case study with Mead's milkweed

Population models can facilitate assessment of potential impacts of pesticides on populations or species rather than individuals and have been identified as important tools for pesticide risk assessment of nontarget species including those listed under the Endangered Species Act. Few examples of population models developed for this specific purpose are available; however, population models are commonly used in conservation science as a tool to project the viability of populations and the long-term outcomes of management actions. We present a population model for Mead's milkweed (Asclepias meadii), a species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act throughout its range across the Midwestern United States. We adapted a published population model based on demographic field data for application in pesticide risk assessment. Exposure and effects were modeled as reductions of sets of vital rates in the transition matrices, simulating both lethal and sublethal effects of herbicides. Two herbicides, atrazine and mesotrione, were used as case study examples to evaluate a range of assumptions about potential exposure-effects relationships. In addition, we assessed buffers (i.e., setback distances of herbicide spray applications from the simulated habitat) as hypothetical mitigation scenarios and evaluated their influence on population-level effects in the model. The model results suggest that buffers can be effective at reducing risk from herbicide drift to plant populations. These case studies demonstrate that existing population models can be adopted and integrated with exposure and effects information for use in pesticide risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:2235-2245. © 2018 SETAC.

Long-term effects of ionizing radiation after the Chernobyl accident: Possible contribution of historic dose

The impact of the Chernobyl NPP accident on the environment is documented to be greater than expected, with higher mutation rates than expected at the current, chronic low dose rate. In this paper we suggest that the historic acute exposure and resulting non-targeted effects (NTE) such as delayed mutations and genomic instability could account at least in part for currently measured mutation rates and provide an initial test of this concept. Data from Møller and Mousseau on the phenotypic mutation rates of Chernobyl birds 9-11 generations post the Chernobyl accident were used and the reconstructed dose response for mutations was compared with delayed reproductive death dose responses (as a measure of genomic instability) in cell cultures exposed to a similar range of doses. The dose to birds present during the Chernobyl NPP accident was reconstructed through the external pathway due to Cs-137 with an estimate of the uncertainty associated with such reconstruction. The percentage of Chernobyl birds several generations after the accident without mutations followed the general shape of the clonogenic survival percentage of the progeny of irradiated cells, and it plateaued at low doses. This is the expected result if NTE of radiation are involved. We suggest therefore, that NTE induced by the historic dose may play a role in generating mutations in progeny many generations following the initial disaster.

Old Data-New Concepts: Integrating "Indirect Effects" Into Radiation Protection

PURPOSE

To address the following key question, what are the consequences of nontargeted and delayed effects for linear nonthreshold models of radiation risk? This paper considers low-dose "indirect" or nontargeted effects and how they might impact radiation protection, particularly at the level of the environment. Nontargeted effects refer to effects in cells, tissues, or organisms that were not targeted by irradiation and that did not receive direct energy deposition. They include genomic instability and lethal mutations in progeny of irradiated cells and bystander effects in neighboring cells, tissues, or organisms. Low-dose hypersensitivity and adaptive responses are sometimes included under the nontargeted effects umbrella, but these are not considered in this paper. Some concepts emerging in the nontargeted effects field that could be important include historic dose. This suggests that the initial exposure to radiation initiates the instability phenotype which is passed to progeny leading to a transgenerational radiation-response phenotype, which suggests that the system response rather than the individual response is critical in determining outcome.

CONCLUSION

Nontargeted effects need to be considered, and modeling, experimental, and epidemiological approaches could all be used to determine the impact of nontargeted effects on the currently used linear nonthreshold model in radiation protection.

Radiosensitivity and transgenerational effects in non-human species

The ALLIANCE working group on effects of ionising radiation on wildlife brings together European researchers to work on the topics of radiosensitivity and transgenerational effects in non-human biota. Differences in radiation sensitivity across species and phyla are poorly understood, but have important implications for understanding the overall effects of radiation and for radiation protection; for example, sensitive species may require special attention in monitoring and radiation protection, and differences in sensitivity between species also lead to overall effects at higher levels (community, ecosystem), since interactions between species can be altered. Hence, understanding the mechanisms of interspecies radiation sensitivity differences may help to clarify mechanisms underpinning intraspecies variation. Differences in sensitivity may only be revealed when organisms are exposed to ionising radiation over several generations. This issue of potential long-term or hereditary effects for both humans and wildlife exposed to low doses of ionising radiation is a major concern. Animal and plant studies suggest that gamma irradiation can lead to observable effects in the F1 generation that are not attributable to inheritance of a rare stable DNA mutation. Several studies have provided evidence of an increase in genomic instability detected in germ or somatic cells of F1 organisms from exposed F0 organisms. This can lead to induced radiosensitivity, and can result in phenotypic effects or lead to reproductive effects and teratogenesis. In particular, studies have been conducted to understand the possible role of epigenetic modifications, such as DNA methylation, histone modifications, or expression of non-coding RNAs in radiosensitivity, as well as in adaptation effects. As such, research using biological models in which the relative contribution of genetic and epigenetic processes can be elucidated is highly valuable.

Population sensitivities of animals to chronic ionizing radiation-model predictions from mice to elephant

Model predictions of population response to chronic ionizing radiation (endpoint 'morbidity') were made for 11 species of warm-blooded animals, differing in body mass and lifespan - from mice to elephant. Predictions were made also for 3 bird species (duck, pigeon, and house sparrow). Calculations were based on analytical solutions of the mathematical model, simulating a population response to low-LET ionizing radiation in an ecosystem with a limiting resource (Sazykina, Kryshev, 2016). Model parameters for different species were taken from biological and radioecological databases; allometric relationships were employed for estimating some parameter values. As a threshold of decreased health status in exposed populations ('health threshold'), a 10% reduction in self-repairing capacity of organisms was suggested, associated with a decline in ability to sustain environmental stresses. Results of the modeling demonstrate a general increase of population vulnerability to ionizing radiation in animal species of larger size and longevity. Populations of small widespread species (mice, house sparrow; body mass 20-50 g), which are characterized by intensive metabolism and short lifespan, have calculated 'health thresholds' at dose rates about 6.5-7.5 mGy day^-1. Widespread animals with body mass 200-500 g (rat, common pigeon) - demonstrate 'health threshold' values at 4-5 mGy day^-1. For populations of animals with body mass 2-5 kg (rabbit, fox, raccoon), the indicators of 10% health decrease are in the range 2-3.4 mGy day^-1. For animals with body mass 40-100 kg (wolf, sheep, wild boar), thresholds are within 0.5-0.8 mGy day^-1; for herbivorous animals with body mass 200-300 kg (deer, horse) - 0.5-0.6 mGy day^-1. The lowest health threshold was estimated for elephant (body mass around 5000 kg) - 0.1 mGy day^-1. According to the model results, the differences in population sensitivities of warm-blooded animal species to ionizing radiation are generally depended on the metabolic rate and longevity of organisms, also on individual radiosensitivity of biological tissues. The results of 'health threshold' calculations are formulated as a graded scale of wildlife sensitivities to chronic radiation stress, ranging from potentially vulnerable to more resistant species. Further studies are needed to expand the scale of population sensitivities to radiation, including other groups of wildlife - cold-blooded species, invertebrates, and plants.

Low doses and non-targeted effects in environmental radiation protection; where are we now and where should we go?

The field of low dose radiobiology has advanced considerably in the last 30 years from small indications in the 1980's that all was not simple, to a paradigm shift which occurred during the 1990's, which severely dented the dose-driven models and DNA centric theories which had dominated until then. However while the science has evolved, the application of that science in environmental health protection has not. A reason for this appears to be the uncertainties regarding the shape of the low dose response curve, which lead regulators to adopt a precautionary approach to radiation protection. Radiation protection models assume a linear relationship between dose (i.e. energy deposition) and effect (in this case probability of an adverse DNA interaction leading to a mutation). This model does not consider non-targeted effects (NTE) such as bystander effects or delayed effects, which occur in progeny cells or offspring not directly receiving energy deposition from the dose. There is huge controversy concerning the role of NTE with some saying they reflect "biology" and that repair and homeostatic mechanisms sort out the apparent damage while others consider them to be a class of damage which increases the size of the target. One thing which has recently become apparent is that NTE may be very critical for modelling long-term effects at the level of the population rather than the individual. The issue is that NTE resulting from an acute high dose such as occurred after the A-bomb or Chernobyl occur in parallel with chronic effects induced by the continuing residual effects due to radiation dose decay. This means that if ambient radiation doses are measured for example 25 years after the Chernobyl accident, they only represent a portion of the dose effect because the contribution of NTE is not included.

Gamma irradiation of resting eggs of Moina macrocopa affects individual and population performance of hatchlings

We investigated the effects of γ-radiation on the survival of resting eggs of the cladoceran Moina macrocopa, on the parameters of the life cycle of neonates hatched from the irradiated eggs and on the performance of the population initiated from irradiated eggs. The study showed that γ-radiation in a range of doses from the background level to 100 Gy had no effect on survival of irradiated eggs. The absorbed dose of 200 Gy was lethal to resting eggs of M. macrocopa. The number of clutches and net reproductive rate (R₀) of hatchlings from eggs exposed to radiation were the strongly affected parameters in experiments with individual females. The number of clutches per female was drastically reduced for females hatched from egg exposed to 80-100 Gy. The most sensitive parameter was the R₀. The estimated ED₅₀ for the R₀ (effective dose that induces 50% R₀ reduction) was 50 Gy. Population performance was also affected by the irradiation of the resting stage of animals that initiated population. Populations that was initiated from hatchlings from resting eggs exposed to 100 Gy was of smaller size and with fewer juvenile and parthenogenetic females in comparison with control populations. Thus, we determined the dose-response relationship for the effect of gamma radiation on survival of resting eggs and individual and population responses of hatchlings from irradiated resting eggs. We conclude that for highly polluted areas contamination of bottom sediments with radioactive materials could affect zooplankton communities through adverse chronic effects on resting eggs, which will be transmitted to hatchlings at individual or population levels.

A dynamic energy-based model to analyze sublethal effects of chronic gamma irradiation in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans

Understanding how toxic contaminants affect wildlife species at various levels of biological organization (subcellular, histological, physiological, organism, and population levels) is a major research goal in both ecotoxicology and radioecology. A mechanistic understanding of the links between different observed perturbations is necessary to predict the consequences for survival, growth, and reproduction, which are critical for population dynamics. In this context, experimental and modeling studies were conducted using the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. A chronic exposure to external gamma radiation was conducted under controlled conditions. Results showed that somatic growth and reproduction were reduced with increasing dose rate. Modeling was used to investigate whether radiation effects might be assessed using a mechanistic model based upon the dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory. A DEB theory in toxicology (DEB-tox), specially adapted to the case of gamma radiation, was developed. Modelling results demonstrated the suitability of DEB-tox for the analysis of radiotoxicity and suggested that external gamma radiation predominantly induced a direct reduction in reproductive capacity in C. elegans and produced an increase in costs for growth and maturation, resulting in a delay in growth and spawning observed at the highest tested dose rate.

Trans-generational influences of sulfamethoxazole on lifespan, reproduction and population growth of Caenorhabditis elegans

Trans-generational effects are increasingly used to indicate long-term influences of environmental pollutants. However, such studies can be complex and yield inconclusive results. In this study, the trans-generational effects of sulfamethoxazole (SMX) on Caenorhabditis elegans on lifespan, reproduction and population growth were tested for 7 consecutive generations, which included gestating generation (F0), embryo-exposed generation (F1), germline-exposed generation (F2), the first non-exposed generation (F3) and the three following generations (F4-F6). Results showed that lifespan was significantly affected by embryo exposure (F1) at 400µm SMX with a value as low as 47% of the control. The reproduction (a total brood size as 49% of the control) and population growth (81% of the control) were significantly affected in germline exposure (F2). Lifespan and reproduction were severely inhibited in non-exposed generations, confirming the real trans-generational effects. Notably, initial reproduction and reproduction duration showed opposite generation-related changes, indicating their interplay in the overall brood size. The population growth rate was well correlated with median lethal time, brood size and initial reproduction, which indicated that the population would increase when the nematodes lived longer and reproduced more offspring within shorter duration.