Managed care and medical expenditures of Medicare beneficiaries

Trading spaces: Medicare's regulatory spillovers on treatment setting for non-Medicare patients

Medicare pricing is known to indirectly influence provider prices and care provision for non-Medicare patients; however, Medicare's regulatory externalities beyond fee-setting are less well understood. We study how physicians' outpatient surgery choices for non-Medicare patients responded to Medicare removing a ban on ambulatory surgery center (ASC) use for a specific procedure. Following the rule change, surgeons began reallocating both Medicare and commercially insured patients to ASCs. Specifically, physicians became 70% more likely to use ASCs for the policy-targeted procedure among their non-Medicare patients. These novel findings demonstrate that Medicare rulemaking affects physician behavior beyond the program's statutory scope.

The persistence of medicare advantage spillovers in the post-Affordable Care Act era

Spillovers can arise in markets with multiple purchasers relying on shared producers. Prior studies have found such spillovers in health care, from managed care to nonmanaged care populations-reducing spending and utilization, and improving outcomes, including in Medicare. This study provides the first plausibly causal estimates of such spillovers from Medicare Advantage (MA) to Traditional Medicare (TM) in the post-Affordable Care Act era using an instrumental variables approach. Controlling for health status and other potential confounders, we estimate that a one percentage point increase in county-level MA penetration results in a $64 (95% CI: $18 to $110) (0.7%) reduction in standardized per-enrollee TM spending. We find evidence for reductions in utilization both on the intensive and extensive margins, across a number of health care services. Our results complement and extend prior work that found spillovers from MA to TM in earlier years and under different payment policies than are in place today.

Treatment flows after outsourcing public insurance provision: Evidence from Florida Medicaid

While politics can determine what public goods are available, elected officials must decide on the method of allocation. Commonly, governments provide public health insurance directly or pay private parties to administer it on their behalf. Such contracting can leverage private sector expertise but also raises agency concerns. In particular, little is known about how private provision of public health insurance impacts medical decision-making and treatment flows for low-income populations. An example comes from the Medicaid program, which has increasingly relied on outside insurers to deliver health services to enrollees. We exploit a large legislative intervention in Florida to show that Medicaid managed care (MMC) organizations generally do not skimp on short-run treatment delivery in the inpatient setting. In fact, patients with severe and chronic illnesses receive more inpatient services under these contracts, especially in relation to managing care transitions. We also document increased competition in the MMC market following the state's policy intervention.

Do Medicare Advantage Rebates Reduce Enrollees' Out-of-Pocket Spending?

The majority of Medicare Advantage (MA) plans receive payments that exceed their costs of providing basic Medicare benefits. There is controversy about whether these payments are passed on to the enrollees as supplemental benefits or are retained by plans. We used survey data on MA beneficiaries' actual out-of-pocket (OOP) spending linked to MA payment information to test whether higher plan payments and rebates lowered enrollee OOP spending. We used instrumental variables regression models to address concerns that plan payments and rebates may reflect anticipation of enrollees with particular health-spending profiles. We found that beneficiaries recovered only $0.65 of every $1.00 in payments exceeding fee-for-service spending through lower OOP spending but more than fully recovered the value of the rebates supporting supplemental benefits.

Savings or Selection? Initial Spending Reductions in the Medicare Shared Savings Program and Considerations for Reform

Policy Points Concerns have been raised about risk selection in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP). Specifically, turnover in accountable care organization (ACO) physicians and patient panels has led to concerns that ACOs may be earning shared-savings bonuses by selecting lower-risk patients or providers with lower-risk panels. We find no evidence that changes in ACO patient populations explain savings estimates from previous evaluations through 2015. We also find no evidence that ACOs systematically manipulated provider composition or billing to earn bonuses. The modest savings and lack of risk selection in the original MSSP design suggest opportunities to build on early progress. Recent program changes provide ACOs with more opportunity to select providers with lower-risk patients. Understanding the effect of these changes will be important for guiding future payment policy.

CONTEXT

The Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) establishes incentives for participating accountable care organizations (ACOs) to lower spending for their attributed fee-for-service Medicare patients. Turnover in ACO physicians and patient panels has raised concerns that ACOs may be earning shared-savings bonuses by selecting lower-risk patients or providers with lower-risk panels.

METHODS

We conducted three sets of analyses of Medicare claims data. First, we estimated overall MSSP savings through 2015 using a difference-in-differences approach and methods that eliminated selection bias from ACO program exit or changes in the practices or physicians included in ACO contracts. We then checked for residual risk selection at the patient level. Second, we reestimated savings with methods that address undetected risk selection but could introduce bias from other sources. These included patient fixed effects, baseline or prospective assignment, and area-level MSSP exposure to hold patient populations constant. Third, we tested for changes in provider composition or provider billing that may have contributed to bonuses, even if they were eliminated as sources of bias in the evaluation analyses.

FINDINGS

MSSP participation was associated with modest and increasing annual gross savings in the 2012-2013 entry cohorts of ACOs that reached $139 to $302 per patient by 2015. Savings in the 2014 entry cohort were small and not statistically significant. Robustness checks revealed no evidence of residual risk selection. Alternative methods to address risk selection produced results that were substantively consistent with our primary analysis but varied somewhat and were more sensitive to adjustment for patient characteristics, suggesting the introduction of bias from within-patient changes in time-varying characteristics. We found no evidence of ACO manipulation of provider composition or billing to inflate savings. Finally, larger savings for physician group ACOs were robust to consideration of differential changes in organizational structure among non-ACO providers (eg, from consolidation).

CONCLUSIONS

Participation in the original MSSP program was associated with modest savings and not with favorable risk selection. These findings suggest an opportunity to build on early progress. Understanding the effect of new opportunities and incentives for risk selection in the revamped MSSP will be important for guiding future program reforms.

The effects of medicare advantage on opioid use

Despite a vast literature on the determinants of prescription opioid use, the role of health insurance plans has received little attention. We study how the form of Medicare beneficiaries' drug coverage affects the volume of opioids they consume. We find that enrollment in Medicare Advantage, which integrates drug coverage with other medical benefits, significantly reduces beneficiaries' likelihood of filling an opioid prescription, as compared to enrollment in a stand-alone drug plan. Approximately half of this effect was due to fewer fills from prescribers who write a very large number of opioid prescriptions.

Association of Mandatory Bundled Payments for Joint Replacement With Use of Postacute Care Among Medicare Advantage Enrollees

Importance

In 2016, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services introduced mandatory bundled payments for knee and hip replacement surgical procedures among traditional Medicare (TM) patients in randomly selected areas. The association of bundled payments with outcomes among patients enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) is not known.

Objective

To determine the association of bundled payments for joint replacement surgical procedures with the use of postacute care (PAC) services among MA patients.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used difference-in-differences analysis to evaluate changes in PAC use among patients enrolled in Medicare who underwent joint replacement operations before and after the introduction of bundled payments (ie, from January 1, 2013, to September 30, 2017). A total of 75 metropolitan statistical areas were randomized to participate in the bundled payment program, with 121 areas serving as controls. Data were analyzed between September 15, 2018, and October 1, 2019.

Exposure

Bundled payments for hip and knee joint replacement operations, in which hospitals received a single payment to cover all costs associated with a joint replacement and associated care for the 90 days after surgery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were discharge to any institutional PAC setting and days spent in institutional PAC within 90 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes included discharge and days spent in specific PAC settings (ie, home health, skilled nursing facility, inpatient rehabilitation).

Results

Of 1 536 387 individuals who underwent hip and knee join replacement surgery, 493 977 (32.2%) were enrolled in MA (mean [SD] age, 73.3 [8.4] years; 386 699 [63.5%] women; 55 078 [6.4%] black) and 1 042 410 (67.8%) were enrolled in TM (mean [SD] age, 73.3 [8.7] years, 829 014 [65.2%] women; 82 890 [9.4%] black). Among MA patients, bundled payments were associated with a reduction of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.0-2.0) percentage points in discharge to an institutional PAC setting (P < .001) and an estimated reduction of 0.3 (95% CI, 0.2-0.5) days spent in an institutional PAC setting (P < .001), a 5.6% relative reduction. Among TM patients, bundled payments were associated with a reduction of 2.6 (95% CI, 2.2-2.9) percentage points in institutional PAC discharge (P < .001) and a reduction of 0.8 (95% CI, 0.7-0.9) days spent in an institutional PAC setting (P < .001), a 2.5% relative reduction. These changes were larger in hospitals with greater proportions of TM patients. In hospitals with low concentrations of MA patients, time spent in institutional PAC settings decreased by 0.9 days among TM patients and 0.8 days among MA patients; in hospitals with high MA concentrations, time spent in institutional PAC settings decreased by 0.6 days for TM patients and 0.2 days for MA patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the first 18 months of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services bundled payment program for joint replacement surgery were associated with reductions in the use of institutional PAC among MA patients. Past evaluations of bundled payments that focused on TM patients may not have measured the full consequences of this alternative payment model.

Health provider networks with private contracts: Is there under-treatment in narrow networks?

Contracts between health insurers and providers are private. By modelling this explicitly, we find the following. Insurers with bigger provider networks, pay providers higher fee-for-service rates. This makes it more likely that a patient is treated and hence health care costs and utilization increase with provider network size. Although providers are homogeneous, the welfare maximizing provider network can consist of two or more providers. Provider profits are positive whereas they would be zero with public contracts. Increasing transparency of provider prices increases welfare only if consumers can "mentally process" the prices of all treatments involved in an insurance contract. If not, it tends to reduce welfare.

Effects of managed care on the proportion of inappropriate elective diagnostic coronary angiographies in non-emergency patients in Switzerland: a retrospective cross-sectional analysis

OBJECTIVE

Guidelines recommend non-invasive ischaemia testing (NIIT) for the majority of patients with suspected ischaemic heart disease in a non-emergency setting. A substantial number of these patients undergo diagnostic coronary angiography (CA) without therapeutic intervention inappropriately due to lacking preceding NIIT. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of voluntary healthcare models with limited access on the proportion of patients without NIIT prior to elective purely diagnostic CA.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of insurance claims data from 2012 to 2015. Data included claims of basic and voluntary healthcare models from approximately 1.2 million patients enrolled with the Helsana Insurance Group. Voluntary healthcare models with limited health access are divided into gate keeping (GK) and managed care (MC) capitation models.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

patients undergoing CA.

EXCLUSION CRITERIA

Patients<18 years, incomplete health insurance data coverage, acute cardiac ischaemia and emergency procedures, therapeutic CA (coronary angioplasty/stenting or coronary artery bypass grafting). The effect of voluntary healthcare models on the proportion of NIIT undertaken within 2 months before diagnostic CA was assessed by means of multiple logistic regression analysis, controlled for influencing factors.

RESULTS

9173 patients matched inclusion criteria. 33.2% (3044) did not receive NIIT before CA. Compared with basic healthcare models, MC was independently associated with a higher proportion of NIIT (p<0.001, OR 1.17, CI 1.045 to 1.312), when additionally controlled for demographics, insurance coverage, inpatient treatment, cardiovascular medication, chronic comorbidities, high-risk status (patients with therapeutic cardiac intervention 1 month after or 18 months prior to diagnostic CA). GK models showed no significant association with the rate of NIIT (p=0.07, OR 1.11, CI 0.991 to 1.253).

CONCLUSIONS

In a non-GK healthcare system, voluntary MC healthcare models with capitation were associated with a reduced inappropriate use of diagnostic CA compared with GK or basic models.

Understanding Trends in Medicare Spending, 2007-2014

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the sources of per-beneficiary Medicare spending growth between 2007 and 2014, including the role of demographic characteristics, attributes of Medicare coverage, and chronic conditions.

DATA SOURCES

Individual-level Medicare spending and enrollment data.

STUDY DESIGN

Using an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition model, we analyzed whether changes in price-standardized, per-beneficiary Medicare Part A and B spending reflected changes in the composition of the Medicare population or changes in relative spending levels per person.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

We identified a 5 percent sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and above from years 2007 to 2014.

RESULTS

Mean payment-adjusted Medicare per-beneficiary spending decreased by $180 between the 2007-2010 and 2011-2014 time periods. This decline was almost entirely attributable to lower spending levels for beneficiaries. Notably, declines in marginal spending levels for beneficiaries with chronic conditions were associated with a $175 reduction in per-beneficiary spending. The decline was partially offset by the increasing prevalence of certain chronic diseases. Still, we are unable to attribute a large share of the decline in spending levels to observable beneficiary characteristics or chronic conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Declines in spending levels for Medicare beneficiaries with chronic conditions suggest that changing patterns of care use may be moderating spending growth.

A Nationwide Assessment of the Association of Smoking Bans and Cigarette Taxes With Hospitalizations for Acute Myocardial Infarction, Heart Failure, and Pneumonia

Multiple studies claim that public place smoking bans are associated with reductions in smoking-related hospitalization rates. No national study using complete hospitalization counts by area that accounts for contemporaneous controls including state cigarette taxes has been conducted. We examine the association between county-level smoking-related hospitalization rates and comprehensive smoking bans in 28 states from 2001 to 2008. Differences-in-differences analysis measures changes in hospitalization rates before versus after introducing bans in bars, restaurants, and workplaces, controlling for cigarette taxes, adjusting for local health and provider characteristics. Smoking bans were not associated with acute myocardial infarction or heart failure hospitalizations, but lowered pneumonia hospitalization rates for persons ages 60 to 74 years. Higher cigarette taxes were associated with lower heart failure hospitalizations for all ages and fewer pneumonia hospitalizations for adults aged 60 to 74. Previous studies may have overestimated the relation between smoking bans and hospitalizations and underestimated the effects of cigarette taxes.

Medicare Advantage and Traditional Medicare Hospitalization Intensity and Readmissions

Medicare Advantage plans have incentives and tools to optimize patient care. Therefore, Medicare Advantage hospitalizations may have lower cost and higher quality than similar traditional Medicare hospitalizations. We applied a coarsened matching approach to 2013 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project hospital discharge data from 22 states to compare hospital cost, length of stay, and readmissions for Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage. We found that Medicare Advantage hospitalizations were substantially less expensive and shorter for mental health stays but costlier and longer for injury and surgical stays. We found little difference in the cost and length of medical stays and in readmission rates. One explanation is that Medicare Advantage plans use outpatient settings for many patients with behavioral health conditions and for injury and surgical patients with less complex health needs. Alternatively, the observed differences in behavioral health cost and length of stay may represent skimping on appropriate care.

Comparison of Low-Value Care in Medicaid vs Commercially Insured Populations

IMPORTANCE

Reducing unnecessary tests and treatments is a potentially promising approach for improving the value of health care. However, relatively little is known about whether insurance type or local practice patterns are associated with delivery of low-value care.

OBJECTIVES

To compare low-value care in the Medicaid and commercially insured populations, test whether provision of low-value care is associated with insurance type, and assess whether local practice patterns are associated with the provision of low-value care.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study of claims data from the Oregon Division of Medical Assistance Programs and the Oregon All-Payer All-Claims database included Medicaid and commercially insured adults aged 18 to 64 years. The study period was January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2013.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Low-value care was assessed using 16 claims-based measures. Logistic regression was used to test the association between Medicaid vs commercial insurance coverage and low-value care and the association between Medicaid and commercial low-value care rates within primary care service areas (PCSAs).

RESULTS

This study included 286 769 Medicaid and 1 376 308 commercial enrollees in 2013. Medicaid enrollees were younger (167 847 [58.5%] of Medicaid enrollees were aged 18-34 years vs 505 628 [36.7%] of those with commercial insurance) but generally had worse health status compared with those with commercial insurance. Medicaid enrollees were also more likely to be female (180 363 [62.9%] vs 702 165 [51.0%]) and live in a rural area (120 232 [41.9%] vs 389 964 [28.3%]). A total of 10 304 of 69 338 qualifying Medicaid patients (14.9%; 95% CI, 14.6%-15.1%) received at least 1 low-value service during 2013; the corresponding rate for commercially insured patients was 35 739 of 314 023 (11.4%; 95% CI, 11.3%-11.5%). No consistent association was found between insurance type and low-value care. Compared with commercial patients, Medicaid patients were more likely to receive low-value care for 10 measures and less likely to receive low-value care for 5 others. For 7 of 11 low-value care measures, Medicaid patients were significantly more likely to receive low-value care if they resided in a PCSA with a higher rate of low-value care for commercial patients.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Oregon Medicaid and commercially insured patients received moderate amounts of low-value care in 2013. No consistent association was found between insurance type and low-value care. However, Medicaid and commercial rates of low-value care were associated with one another within PCSAs. Low-value care may be more closely related to local practice patterns than to reimbursement generosity or insurance benefit structures.

Medicare Managed Care Spillovers and Treatment Intensity

Evidence suggests that the share of Medicare managed care enrollees in a region affects the costs of treating traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries; however, little is known about the mechanisms through which these 'spillover effects' operate. This paper examines the relationship between Medicare managed care penetration and treatment intensity for FFS enrollees hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AMI. I find that increased Medicare managed care penetration is associated with a reduction in both the costs and the treatment intensity of FFS AMI patients. Specifically, as Medicare managed care penetration increases, FFS AMI patients are less likely to receive surgical reperfusion and mechanical ventilation and to experience an overall reduction in the number of inpatient procedures. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in Managed Care Cost Containment: An Analysis of the Managed Care Backlash

Consumer dissatisfaction with the quality and limitations of managed health care led to rapid disenrollment from managed care plans and demands for regulation between 1998 and 2003. Managed care organizations, particularly health maintenance organizations (HMOs), now face quality and coverage mandates that restrict them from using their most aggressive strategies for managing costs. This paper examines the effect of this backlash on managed care's ability to contain costs among short-term, non-federal hospitals between 1998 and 2008. The results show that the impact of increased HMO penetration on inpatient costs reversed over the study period, but HMOs were still effective at containing outpatient costs. These findings have important policy implications for understanding the continuing role that HMOs should play in cost containment policy and for understanding how effective the latest wave of cost containment institutions may perform in heavily regulated markets.

The Association between Medicare Advantage Market Penetration and Diabetes in the United States

The objective of this study is to explore the extent to which managed care market penetration in the United States is associated with the presence of chronic disease. Diabetes was selected as the chronic disease of interest due to its increasing prevalence as well as the disease management protocols that can lessen disease complications. We hypothesized that greater managed care market penetration would be associated with (1) lower prevalence of diabetes and (2) lower prevalence of diabetes-related comorbidities (DRCs) among diabetics. Data for this analysis came from two sources. We merged Medicare Advantage (MA) market penetration data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) with data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) (2004-2008). Results suggest that county-level MA market penetration is not significantly associated with prevalence of diabetes or DRCs. That finding is quite interesting in that managed care market penetration has been shown to have an effect on utilization of inpatient services. It may be that managed care protocols do not offer the same benefits beyond the inpatient setting.

MEDICARE PAYMENTS AND SYSTEM-LEVEL HEALTH-CARE USE: The Spillover Effects of Medicare Managed Care

The rapid growth of Medicare managed care over the past decade has the potential to increase the efficiency of health-care delivery. Improvements in care management for some may improve efficiency system-wide, with implications for optimal payment policy in public insurance programs. These system-level effects may depend on local health-care market structure and vary based on patient characteristics. We use exogenous variation in the Medicare payment schedule to isolate the effects of market-level managed care enrollment on the quantity and quality of care delivered. We find that in areas with greater enrollment of Medicare beneficiaries in managed care, the non-managed care beneficiaries have fewer days in the hospital but more outpatient visits, consistent with a substitution of less expensive outpatient care for more expensive inpatient care, particularly at high levels of managed care. We find no evidence that care is of lower quality. Optimal payment policies for Medicare managed care enrollees that account for system-level spillovers may thus be higher than those that do not.

Chronic Disease Prevalence and Medicare Advantage Market Penetration: Findings From the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

By March 2015, 30% of all Medicare beneficiaries were enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) plans. Research to date has not explored the impacts of MA market penetration on individual or population health outcomes. The primary objective of this study is to examine the relationships between MA market penetration and the beneficiary's portfolio of cardiometabolic diagnoses. This study uses 2004 to 2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) Household Component data to construct an aggregate index that captures multiple diagnoses in one outcome measure (Chronic Disease Severity Index [CDSI]). The MEPS data for 8089 Medicare beneficiaries are merged with MA market penetration data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Ordinary least squares regressions are run with SAS 9.3 to model the effects of MA market penetration on CDSI. The results suggest that each percentage increase in MA market penetration is associated with a greater than 2-point decline in CDSI (lower burden of cardiometabolic chronic disease). Spill-over effects may be driving improvements in the cardiometabolic health of beneficiary populations in counties with elevated levels of MA market penetration.

The spillover effects of Medicare managed care: Medicare Advantage and hospital utilization

More than a quarter of Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage, which was created in large part to improve the efficiency of health care delivery by promoting competition among private managed care plans. This paper explores the spillover effects of the Medicare Advantage program on the traditional Medicare program and other patients, taking advantage of changes in Medicare Advantage payment policy to isolate exogenous increases in Medicare Advantage enrollment and trace out the effects of greater managed care penetration on hospital utilization and spending throughout the health care system. We find that when more seniors enroll in Medicare managed care, hospital costs decline for all seniors and for commercially insured younger populations. Greater managed care penetration is not associated with fewer hospitalizations, but is associated with lower costs and shorter stays per hospitalization. These spillovers are substantial - offsetting more than 10% of increased payments to Medicare Advantage plans.

Competitive bidding in Medicare Advantage: effect of benchmark changes on plan bids

Bidding has been proposed to replace or complement the administered prices that Medicare pays to hospitals and health plans. In 2006, the Medicare Advantage program implemented a competitive bidding system to determine plan payments. In perfectly competitive models, plans bid their costs and thus bids are insensitive to the benchmark. Under many other models of competition, bids respond to changes in the benchmark. We conceptualize the bidding system and use an instrumental variable approach to study the effect of benchmark changes on bids. We use 2006-2010 plan payment data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, published county benchmarks, actual realized fee-for-service costs, and Medicare Advantage enrollment. We find that a $1 increase in the benchmark leads to about a $0.53 increase in bids, suggesting that plans in the Medicare Advantage market have meaningful market power.

Long-term impact of Medicare managed care on patients treated for coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Planned health insurance reform promises and has started to cut reimbursement to Medicare managed care (MMC) plans. If such plans provide better care, adjusting for possible better health of their enrollees, then such reimbursement changes may have unforeseen quality consequences.

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether long-term follow-up outcomes of patients who receive intensive interventional care for coronary artery disease differed by Medicare plan type.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Patient-level postdischarge outcomes were multivariate adjusted logistic functions of a patient's insurance type at time of index admission. Data were retrospective secondary percutaneous coronary intervention data from Pennsylvania with 35,417 index admissions in 2004 to 2005 and in-state follow-up hospitalizations within 12 months and in-state death within 3 years of discharge.

RESULTS

MMC insured patients had a consistently estimated 3-year survival benefit (relative risk of death 0.91; P value 0.003) compared with traditional Medicare traditional fee for service patients. Results were robust to propensity score stratification, subset analyses, and rich controls for observed confounders. Implausibly large associations (between an unmeasured confounder and both insurance status and outcomes) would have to be hypothesized to fully explain the observed survival benefit.

CONCLUSIONS

Among a large number of Pennsylvanian elderly patients, receiving a very common therapeutic procedure for highly prevalent disease, being insured with MMC was associated with a clinically meaningful long-term survival benefit. Impending health insurance reform that changes the relative attractiveness of MMC plans may have unintended consequences on outcome quality.

Complex Medicare advantage choices may overwhelm seniors--especially those with impaired decision making

The proliferation of Medicare Advantage plans has given Medicare enrollees more choices, but these could be overwhelming for some, especially for those with impaired decision-making capabilities. We analyzed national survey data and linked Medicare enrollment data for the period 2004-07 to examine the effects on enrollment of expanded choices and benefits in the Medicare Advantage program. The availability of more plan options was associated with increased enrollment in Medicare Advantage when elderly Medicare beneficiaries chose from a limited number of plans-for example, fewer than fifteen plans. Enrollment was unchanged or decreased in Medicare Advantage when beneficiaries chose from larger numbers of plans-for example, fifteen to thirty, or more than thirty. Elderly adults with low cognitive function were less responsive to the generosity of available benefits than those with high cognitive function when choosing between traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage. Simplifying choices in Medicare Advantage could improve beneficiaries' enrollment decisions, strengthen value-based competition among plans, and extend the benefits of choice to seniors with impaired cognition. It could also lower their out-of-pocket costs.

Modeling the impact of Medicare Advantage payment cuts on ambulatory care sensitive and elective hospitalizations

OBJECTIVE

To assess relationships between changes in Medicare Advantage (MA) payment rates and Medicare beneficiary hospitalizations and to simulate the effects of scheduled payment cuts on ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) and elective hospitalization rates.

DATA

State Inpatient Database discharge abstracts from Arizona, Florida, and New York merged with administrative Medicare enrollment and MA payment data.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective, fixed effect regression analysis of the relationship between MA payment rates and rates of ACS and elective hospitalizations among Medicare beneficiaries in counties with at least 10,000 Medicare beneficiaries and 3 percent MA penetration from 1999 to 2005.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

MA payment rates were negatively related to rates of ACS admissions. Simulations suggest that payment cuts could be associated with higher rates of ACS admissions. No relationship between MA payments and rates of elective hospitalizations was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Reductions in MA payment rates may result in a small increase in ACS admissions. Trends in ACS admissions among chronically ill Medicare beneficiaries should be tracked following MA payment cuts.

Patient cost-sharing and healthcare spending growth

In this paper, we explore the role patient incentives play in slowing healthcare spending growth. Evidence suggests that while patients do indeed respond to financial incentives, cost-sharing does not uniformly improve value; rather, cost-sharing provisions must be deliberately structured and targeted to reduce care of low marginal value. Other mechanisms may be helpful in targeting particular populations or types of utilization. The spillover effects between privately insured and publicly insured populations as well as market imperfections suggest a potential role for public policy in promoting insurance design that slows spending growth while increasing the health that each dollar buys.

Evidence on the efficacy of inpatient spending on Medicare patients

CONTEXT

It is widely believed that a significant amount, perhaps as much as 20 to 30 percent, of health care spending in the United States is wasted, despite market forces such as managed care organizations and large, self-insured firms with a financial incentive to eliminate waste of this magnitude.

METHODS

This article uses Medicare claims data to study the association between inpatient spending and the thirty-day mortality of Medicare patients admitted to hospitals between 2001 and 2005 for surgery (general, orthopedic, vascular) and medical conditions (acute myocardial infarction [AMI], congestive heart failure [CHF], stroke, and gastrointestinal bleeding).

FINDINGS

Estimates from the analysis indicated that except for AMI patients, a 10 percent increase in inpatient spending was associated with a decrease of between 3.1 and 11.3 percent in thirty-day mortality, depending on the type of patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Although some spending may be inefficient, the results suggest that the amount of waste is less than conventionally believed, at least for inpatient care.

The value of coverage in the medicare advantage insurance market

This paper examines the impact of coverage on demand for health insurance in the Medicare Advantage (MA) insurance market. Estimating the effects of coverage on demand poses a challenge for researchers who must consider both the hundreds of benefits that affect out-of-pocket costs (OOPC) to consumers, but also the endogeneity of coverage. These problems are addressed in a discrete choice demand model by employing a unique measure of OOPC that considers a consumer's expected payments for a fixed bundle of health services and applying instrumental variable techniques to address potential endogeneity bias. The results of the demand model show that OOPC have a significant effect on consumer surplus and that not instrumenting for OOPC results in a significant underestimate of the value of coverage.

Community contextual predictors of endoscopic colorectal cancer screening in the USA: spatial multilevel regression analysis

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States, and endoscopic screening can both detect and prevent cancer, but utilization is suboptimal and varies across geographic regions. We use multilevel regression to examine the various predictors of individuals' decisions to utilize endoscopic CRC screening. Study subjects are a 100% population cohort of Medicare beneficiaries identified in 2001 and followed through 2005. The outcome variable is a binary indicator of any sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy use over this period. We analyze each state separately and map the findings for all states together to reveal patterns in the observed heterogeneity across states.

Results

We estimate a fully adjusted model for each state, based on a comprehensive socio-ecological model. We focus the discussion on the independent contributions of each of three community contextual variables that are amenable to policy intervention. Prevalence of Medicare managed care in one's neighborhood was associated with lower probability of screening in 12 states and higher probability in 19 states. Prevalence of poor English language ability among elders in one's neighborhood was associated with lower probability of screening in 15 states and higher probability in 6 states. Prevalence of poverty in one's neighborhood was associated with lower probability of screening in 36 states and higher probability in 5 states.

Conclusions

There are considerable differences across states in the socio-ecological context of CRC screening by endoscopy, suggesting that the current decentralized configuration of state-specific comprehensive cancer control programs is well suited to respond to the observed heterogeneity. We find that interventions to mediate language barriers are more critically needed in some states than in others. Medicare managed care penetration, hypothesized to affect information about and diffusion of new endoscopic technologies, has a positive association in only a minority of states. This suggests that managed care plans' promotion of this cost-increasing technology has been rather limited. Area poverty has a negative impact in the vast majority of states, but is positive in five states, suggesting there are some effective cancer control policies in place targeting the poor with supplemental resources promoting CRC screening.